2018 United States Senate election in Indiana
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Turnout | 50.42% | ||||||||||||||||
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155px County results
Braun: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Donnelly: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% |
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The 2018 United States Senate election in Indiana took place on November 6, 2018, along with other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Joe Donnelly sought reelection to a second term, facing Republican businessman and former state representative Mike Braun and Libertarian Party nominee Lucy Brenton.
In 2017, Politico described the race as "possibly the GOP's best opportunity to seize a Senate seat from Democrats" in the 2018 elections.[1] The primary election was held on May 8, 2018.[2] In October 2018, RealClearPolitics rated the race a toss-up between the Democratic and Republican nominees, with the Libertarian receiving a poll average of 6%.[3] Braun defeated Donnelly in the general election by a margin (5.9 percentage points) almost identical to Donnelly's margin of victory in 2012 (5.7).
Contents
Background
In 2012, Joe Donnelly was elected to the Senate with 50% of the vote to Republican nominee Richard Mourdock's 44%. In the 2016 presidential election, Republican nominee Donald Trump won Indiana with about 56.5% of the vote to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton's 37.5%.[4][5]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Joe Donnelly, incumbent U.S. Senator[6]
Withdrew
Endorsements
Joe Donnelly |
---|
|
Results
Democratic primary results[14] | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
Democratic | Joe Donnelly (incumbent) | 284,621 | 100% | |
Total votes | 284,621 | 100% |
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Mike Braun, businessman and former state representative[15][16]
Eliminated in the primary election
- Luke Messer, U.S. Representative[17]
- Todd Rokita, U.S. Representative[18][19][20]
Declined
- Jim Banks, U.S. Representative[21]
- Susan Brooks, U.S. Representative (endorsed Luke Messer)[19][22]
- Mike Delph, state senator (endorsed Todd Rokita)[18][23]
- Jackie Walorski, U.S. Representative[24][25][26]
Withdrawn
- Terry Henderson, businessman[27][28] (endorsed Mike Braun)[29]
- Andy Horning, Libertarian nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012 and Libertarian nominee for IN-08 in 2014[30][31]
- Mark Hurt, attorney and former congressional aide[32][33][34][35]
- Andrew Takami, director of Purdue Polytechnic New Albany[36][37] (endorsed Luke Messer)[38]
Endorsements
Mike Braun |
---|
|
Luke Messer |
---|
|
Todd Rokita |
---|
|
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Luke Messer |
Todd Rokita |
Mike Braun |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Strategic National (R) | May 5–6, 2018 | 300 | ± 5.7% | 29% | 28% | 44% | – | – |
Gravis Marketing | April 6–11, 2018 | 280 | ± 5.9% | 13% | 16% | 26% | – | 45% |
GS Strategy Group (R-Rokita) | January 6–9, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 9% | 24% | 9% | – | 58% |
GS Strategy Group (R-Rokita) | July 16–18, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 20% | 28% | – | – | 51% |
14% | 21% | 11% | – | 55% | ||||
OnMedia (R-Messer) | July 10–12, 2017 | 400 | ± 4.8% | 23% | 23% | 2% | 7%[lower-alpha 1] | 45% |
Results
-
80–90%
-
60–70%
-
50–60%
-
40–50%
-
<40%
-
<40%
-
40–50%
-
<40%
-
40–50%
-
50–60%
-
60–70%
Republican primary results[14] | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
Republican | Mike Braun | 208,602 | 41.17% | |
Republican | Todd Rokita | 151,967 | 29.99% | |
Republican | Luke Messer | 146,131 | 28.84% | |
Total votes | 506,700 | 100% |
Independent
Candidates
Declared
- James Johnson, Jr.[60]
General election
Candidates
- Mike Braun, businessman and former state representative (R)
- Lucy Brenton (L)
- Joe Donnelly, incumbent (D)
- James Johnson, Jr. (I)
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 8, 2018
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[61] | Tossup | October 26, 2018 |
Inside Elections[62] | Tossup | November 1, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[63] | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
CNN[64] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
RealClearPolitics[65] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
Daily Kos[66] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
Fox News[67] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate (party) | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand |
Joe Donnelly (D) | $16,100,528 | $13,872,981 | $2,321,981 |
Mike Braun (R) | $16,964,706 | $15,576,842 | $1,387,861 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[68] |
Endorsements
Declined to endorse |
---|
|
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Joe Donnelly (D) |
Mike Braun (R) |
Lucy Brenton (L) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HarrisX | November 3–5, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 42% | 43% | – | – | – |
HarrisX | November 2–4, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 41% | – | – | – |
HarrisX | November 1–3, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 42% | – | – | – |
HarrisX | October 31 – November 2, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 42% | – | – | – |
HarrisX | October 30 – November 1, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 43% | – | – | – |
HarrisX | October 29–31, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 40% | 43% | – | – | – |
Fox News | October 27–30, 2018 | 722 LV | ± 3.5% | 45% | 38% | 5% | 2% | 9% |
852 RV | ± 3.0% | 42% | 38% | 6% | 2% | 11% | ||
HarrisX | October 24–30, 2018 | 1,400 | ± 2.6% | 42% | 42% | – | – | – |
Marist College | October 24–28, 2018 | 496 LV | ± 5.5% | 45% | 42% | 7% | <1% | 5% |
48% | 46% | – | 2% | 5% | ||||
800 RV | ± 4.2% | 43% | 40% | 9% | <1% | 7% | ||
47% | 45% | – | 2% | 7% | ||||
Cygnal (R) | October 26–27, 2018 | 505 | ± 4.4% | 46% | 49% | – | 3% | 2% |
YouGov | October 23–26, 2018 | 975 | ± 3.7% | 43% | 46% | 3% | 0% | 8% |
Mason Strategies (R) | October 15–20, 2018 | 600 | ± 3.9% | 43% | 47% | 3% | – | 7% |
American Viewpoint (R-Braun) | October 14–17, 2018 | 800 | – | 40% | 44% | 7% | – | 5% |
SurveyUSA | October 12–16, 2018 | 816 | ± 4.6% | 41% | 40% | 8% | – | 11% |
Gravis Marketing | October 12–16, 2018 | 377 | ± 5.1% | 44% | 40% | 7% | – | 10% |
Vox Populi Polling | October 13–15, 2018 | 783 | ± 3.5% | 55% | 45% | – | – | – |
American Viewpoint (R-Braun) | October 7–10, 2018 | 800 | – | 40% | 44% | 7% | – | 7% |
American Viewpoint (R-Braun) | September 30 – October 3, 2018 | 800 | – | 39% | 43% | 7% | – | 5% |
Fox News | September 29 – October 2, 2018 | 695 LV | ± 3.5% | 43% | 41% | 6% | 2% | 9% |
806 RV | ± 3.5% | 41% | 40% | 6% | 1% | 10% | ||
Ipsos | September 12–20, 2018 | 1,181 | ± 3.0% | 46% | 43% | – | 3% | 8% |
Fox News | September 8–11, 2018 | 677 LV | ± 3.5% | 43% | 45% | 3% | 1% | 8% |
804 RV | ± 3.5% | 42% | 41% | 4% | 1% | 10% | ||
Marist College | August 26–29, 2018 | 576 LV | ± 5.0% | 44% | 41% | 8% | 1% | 6% |
49% | 43% | – | 2% | 7% | ||||
816 RV | ± 4.2% | 43% | 40% | 8% | 1% | 8% | ||
48% | 42% | – | 2% | 9% | ||||
The Trafalgar Group (R) | July 31 – August 7, 2018 | 1,420 | ± 2.6% | 51% | 39% | – | – | 11% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 952 | ± 5.0% | 47% | 49% | – | – | 4% |
Gravis Marketing | May 10–15, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 46% | 47% | – | – | 7% |
Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Results
On November 6, 2018, Braun won the general election.[133] He swept southern Indiana, the suburbs of Indianapolis, and most other rural areas in the state. Donnelly ran well behind his 2012 vote totals, winning only in Indianapolis, the college towns (Bloomington, Terre Haute, West Lafayette, South Bend), and Northwest Indiana.[134]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Mike Braun | 1,158,000 | 50.73% | +6.45% | |
Democratic | Joe Donnelly (incumbent) | 1,023,553 | 44.84% | -5.20% | |
Libertarian | Lucy Brenton | 100,942 | 4.42% | -1.26% | |
Write-in | 70 | <0.01% | N/A | ||
Total votes | 2,282,565 | 100% | N/A | ||
Republican gain from Democratic |
Notes
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References
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External links
- Candidates at Vote Smart
- Candidates at Ballotpedia
- Campaign finance at FEC
- Campaign finance at Center for Responsive Politics
- GOP Primary Debate, February 20, 2018
Official campaign websites
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