2018 United States Senate election in Indiana

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2018 United States Senate election in Indiana

← 2012 November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06) 2024 →
Turnout 50.42%
  x150px Joe Donnelly, official portrait, 113th Congress.jpg
Nominee Mike Braun Joe Donnelly
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,158,000 1,023,553
Percentage 50.7% 44.8%

155px
County results
Braun:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Donnelly:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%

U.S. senator before election

Joe Donnelly
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Mike Braun
Republican

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The 2018 United States Senate election in Indiana took place on November 6, 2018, along with other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Joe Donnelly sought reelection to a second term, facing Republican businessman and former state representative Mike Braun and Libertarian Party nominee Lucy Brenton.

In 2017, Politico described the race as "possibly the GOP's best opportunity to seize a Senate seat from Democrats" in the 2018 elections.[1] The primary election was held on May 8, 2018.[2] In October 2018, RealClearPolitics rated the race a toss-up between the Democratic and Republican nominees, with the Libertarian receiving a poll average of 6%.[3] Braun defeated Donnelly in the general election by a margin (5.9 percentage points) almost identical to Donnelly's margin of victory in 2012 (5.7).

Background

In 2012, Joe Donnelly was elected to the Senate with 50% of the vote to Republican nominee Richard Mourdock's 44%. In the 2016 presidential election, Republican nominee Donald Trump won Indiana with about 56.5% of the vote to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton's 37.5%.[4][5]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrew

  • Martin Del Rio, Iraq War veteran[7][8]

Endorsements

Results

Democratic primary results[14]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Joe Donnelly (incumbent) 284,621 100%
Total votes 284,621 100%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in the primary election

Declined

Withdrawn

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Luke
Messer
Todd
Rokita
Mike
Braun
Other Undecided
Strategic National (R) May 5–6, 2018 300 ± 5.7% 29% 28% 44%
Gravis Marketing April 6–11, 2018 280 ± 5.9% 13% 16% 26% 45%
GS Strategy Group (R-Rokita) January 6–9, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 9% 24% 9% 58%
GS Strategy Group (R-Rokita) July 16–18, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 20% 28% 51%
14% 21% 11% 55%
OnMedia (R-Messer) July 10–12, 2017 400 ± 4.8% 23% 23% 2% 7%[lower-alpha 1] 45%

Results

File:Indiana U.S. Senate Republican primary, 2018.svg
Results by county:
Braun
  •   80–90%
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
  •   <40%
Rokita
  •   <40%
  •   40–50%
Messer
  •   <40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Republican primary results[14]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mike Braun 208,602 41.17%
Republican Todd Rokita 151,967 29.99%
Republican Luke Messer 146,131 28.84%
Total votes 506,700 100%

Independent

Candidates

Declared

  • James Johnson, Jr.[60]

General election

Candidates

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[61] Tossup October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[62] Tossup November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[63] Lean R November 5, 2018
CNN[64] Tossup November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[65] Tossup November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[66] Tossup November 5, 2018
Fox News[67] Tossup November 5, 2018

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Joe Donnelly (D) $16,100,528 $13,872,981 $2,321,981
Mike Braun (R) $16,964,706 $15,576,842 $1,387,861
Source: Federal Election Commission[68]

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Donnelly (D)
Mike
Braun (R)
Lucy
Brenton (L)
Other Undecided
HarrisX November 3–5, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 42% 43%
HarrisX November 2–4, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 43% 41%
HarrisX November 1–3, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 43% 42%
HarrisX October 31 – November 2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 44% 42%
HarrisX October 30 – November 1, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 43% 43%
HarrisX October 29–31, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 40% 43%
Fox News October 27–30, 2018 722 LV ± 3.5% 45% 38% 5% 2% 9%
852 RV ± 3.0% 42% 38% 6% 2% 11%
HarrisX October 24–30, 2018 1,400 ± 2.6% 42% 42%
Marist College October 24–28, 2018 496 LV ± 5.5% 45% 42% 7% <1% 5%
48% 46% 2% 5%
800 RV ± 4.2% 43% 40% 9% <1% 7%
47% 45% 2% 7%
Cygnal (R) October 26–27, 2018 505 ± 4.4% 46% 49% 3% 2%
YouGov October 23–26, 2018 975 ± 3.7% 43% 46% 3% 0% 8%
Mason Strategies (R) October 15–20, 2018 600 ± 3.9% 43% 47% 3% 7%
American Viewpoint (R-Braun) October 14–17, 2018 800 40% 44% 7% 5%
SurveyUSA October 12–16, 2018 816 ± 4.6% 41% 40% 8% 11%
Gravis Marketing October 12–16, 2018 377 ± 5.1% 44% 40% 7% 10%
Vox Populi Polling October 13–15, 2018 783 ± 3.5% 55% 45%
American Viewpoint (R-Braun) October 7–10, 2018 800 40% 44% 7% 7%
American Viewpoint (R-Braun) September 30 – October 3, 2018 800 39% 43% 7% 5%
Fox News September 29 – October 2, 2018 695 LV ± 3.5% 43% 41% 6% 2% 9%
806 RV ± 3.5% 41% 40% 6% 1% 10%
Ipsos September 12–20, 2018 1,181 ± 3.0% 46% 43% 3% 8%
Fox News September 8–11, 2018 677 LV ± 3.5% 43% 45% 3% 1% 8%
804 RV ± 3.5% 42% 41% 4% 1% 10%
Marist College August 26–29, 2018 576 LV ± 5.0% 44% 41% 8% 1% 6%
49% 43% 2% 7%
816 RV ± 4.2% 43% 40% 8% 1% 8%
48% 42% 2% 9%
The Trafalgar Group (R) July 31 – August 7, 2018 1,420 ± 2.6% 51% 39% 11%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 952 ± 5.0% 47% 49% 4%
Gravis Marketing May 10–15, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 46% 47% 7%

Results

On November 6, 2018, Braun won the general election.[133] He swept southern Indiana, the suburbs of Indianapolis, and most other rural areas in the state. Donnelly ran well behind his 2012 vote totals, winning only in Indianapolis, the college towns (Bloomington, Terre Haute, West Lafayette, South Bend), and Northwest Indiana.[134]

United States Senate election in Indiana, 2018[135]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Mike Braun 1,158,000 50.73% +6.45%
Democratic Joe Donnelly (incumbent) 1,023,553 44.84% -5.20%
Libertarian Lucy Brenton 100,942 4.42% -1.26%
Write-in 70 <0.01% N/A
Total votes 2,282,565 100% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

Notes

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References

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External links

Official campaign websites

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