Energy transition in Germany

Photovoltaic array and wind turbines at the Schneebergerhof wind farm in the German state of Rheinland-Pfalz

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Market share of Germany's power generation 2014

The Energiewende (German for energy transition) is the transition by Germany to a low carbon, environmentally sound, reliable, and affordable energy supply. The new system will rely heavily on renewable energy (particularly wind, photovoltaics, and biomass) energy efficiency, and energy demand management. Most if not all existing coal-fired generation will need to be retired. The phase-out of Germany's fleet of nuclear reactors, to be complete by 2022, is a key part of the program.

Legislative support for the Energiewende was passed in late 2010 and includes greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions of 80–95% by 2050 (relative to 1990) and a renewable energy target of 60% by 2050. These targets are ambitious. One Berlin policy institute noted that "while the German approach is not unique worldwide, the speed and scope of the Energiewende are exceptional". The Energiewende also seeks a greater transparency in relation to national energy policy formation.

Germany has made significant progress on its GHG emissions reduction target, achieving a 27% decrease between 1990 and 2014. However Germany will need to maintain an average GHG emissions abatement rate of 3.5% per annum to reach its Energiewende goal, equal to the maximum historical value thus far.

Germany spends €1.5 billion per annum on energy research (2013 figure) in an effort to solve the technical and social issues raised by the transition. This includes a number of computer studies that have confirmed the feasibility and a similar cost (relative to business-as-usual and given that carbon is adequately priced) of the Energiewende.

The term Energiewende is regularly used in English language publications without being translated (a loanword).

The term Energiewende

The term Energiewende was contained in the title of a 1980 publication by the German Öko-Institut, calling for the complete abandonment of nuclear and petroleum energy. On 16 February 1980, the German Federal Ministry of the Environment also hosted a symposium in Berlin, called Energiewende – Atomausstieg und Klimaschutz (Energy Transition: Nuclear Phase-Out and Climate Protection). The views of the Öko-Institut, initially strongly opposed, have gradually become common knowledge in energy policy. In the following decades the term expanded in scope; in its present form it dates back to at least 2002.

Energiewende designates a significant change in energy policy: The term encompasses a reorientation of policy from demand to supply and a shift from centralized to distributed generation (for example, producing heat and power in very small cogeneration units), which should replace over-production and avoidable energy consumption with energy-saving measures and increased efficiency.

In a broader sense, this transition also entails a democratization of energy: In the traditional energy industry, a few large companies with large centralized power stations dominate the market as an oligopoly and consequently amass a worrisome level of both economic and political power. Renewable energies, in contrast, can as a rule be established in a decentralized manner. Public wind farms and solar parks can involve many citizens directly in energy production. Photovoltaic systems can even be set up by individuals. Municipal utilities can also benefit citizens financially, while the conventional energy industry profits a relatively small number of shareholders. Also significant, the decentralized structure of renewable energies enables creation of value locally and minimizes capital outflows from a region. Renewable energy sources therefore play an increasingly important role in municipal energy policy, and local governments often promote them.

Status

The main renewable energy sources in Germany: biomass, wind energy and photovoltaics

The key policy document outlining the Energiewende was published by the German government in September 2010, some six months before the Fukushima nuclear accident. Legislative support was passed in September 2010. Important aspects include:

Energiewende policy targets

Target	2020	2050
Reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (base year 1990)	−40%	−80 to −95%
Share of renewable energies in total final energy consumption	18%	60%
Share of renewable energies in total electricity consumption	35%	80%
Reduction of primary energy consumption (base year 2008)	−20%	−50%
Reduction of electricity consumption (base year 2008)	−10%	−25%
Reduction of final energy consumption in the transport sector (base year 2008)	−10%	−40%

In addition, there will be an associated research and development drive. A chart showing German energy legislation is available.

These targets go well beyond European Union legislation and the national policies of other European states. The policy objectives have been embraced by the German federal government and has resulted in a huge expansion of renewables, particularly wind power. Germany's share of renewables has increased from around 5% in 1999 to 22.9% in 2012, surpassing the OECD average of 18% usage of renewables. Producers have been guaranteed a fixed feed-in tariff for 20 years, guaranteeing a fixed income. Energy co-operatives have been created, and efforts were made to decentralize control and profits. The large energy companies have a disproportionately small share of the renewables market. However, in some cases poor investment designs have caused bankruptcies and low returns, and unrealistic promises have been shown to be far from reality. Nuclear power plants were closed, and the existing 9 plants will close earlier than planned, in 2022.

One factor that has inhibited efficient employment of new renewable energy has been the lack of an accompanying investment in power infrastructure to bring the power to market. It is believed 8,300 km of power lines must be built or upgraded. The different German States have varying attitudes to the construction of new power lines. A second factor is the storage capacity needed to create a stable electricity supply from wind and solar energy is far beyond what can be realized in Germany. A third factor is the amount of wind turbines needed to meet the German electricity consumption can not be realized on German territory. Industry has had their rates frozen and so the increased costs of the Energiewende have been passed on to consumers, who have had rising electricity bills. Germans in 2013 had some of the highest electricity costs in Europe. In comparison, their nuclear-reliant neighbour France has some of the cheapest in the EU (#7 out of 27).

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Acceptance of power plants in the neighborhood (Germany 2014)

According to a 2014 survey conducted by TNS Emnid for the German Renewable Energies Agency among 1015 respondents, 94 per cent of the Germans support the enforced expansion of Renewable Energies. More than two-thirds of the interviewees agrees to renewable power plants close to their homes. The share of total final energy from renewables was 11% in 2014.

Market redesign is a key part of the Energiewende. The German electricity market needs to be reworked to suit. Among other things, wind and PV cannot be principally refinanced under the current marginal cost based market. Carbon pricing is also central to the Energiewende and the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) needs to be reformed to create a genuine scarcity of certificates. Most of the computer scenarios used to analyse the Energiewende rely on a substantial carbon price to drive the transition to low-carbon technologies.

Coal-fired generation needs to be retired as part of the Energiewende. Some argue for an explicit negotiated phase-out of coal plants, along the lines of the well-publicized nuclear phase-out. Coal comprised 42% of electricity generation in 2015.

The Energiewende is made up of various technical building blocks. Electricity storage, while too expensive at present, may become a useful technology in the future. Energy efficiency has a key but currently under-recognised role to play. Improved energy efficiency is one of Germany's official targets. Greater integration with adjoining national electricity networks can offer mutual benefits — indeed, systems with high shares of renewables can utilize geographical diversity to offset intermittency.

As of 2013, Germany is investing €1.5 billion per annum in energy research.

The social and political dimensions of the Energiewende have been subject to study. Strunz argues that the underlying technological, political and economic structures will need to change radically — a process he calls regime shift. Schmid, Knopf, and Pechan analyse the actors and institutions that will be decisive in the Energiewende and how latency in the national electricity infrastructure may restrict progress.

Computer studies

Much of the policy development for the Energiewende is underpinned by computer models, run mostly by universities and research institutes. The models are usually based on scenario analysis and are used to investigate different assumptions regarding the stability, sustainability, cost, efficiency, and public acceptability of various sets of technologies. Some models cover the entire energy sector, while others are confined to electricity generation and consumption.

Several computer studies confirm the feasibility of the German electricity system being 100% renewable in 2050.

2009 WWF study

In 2009 WWF Germany published a quantitative study prepared by the Öko-Institut, Prognos, and Hans-Joachim Ziesing. The study presumes a 95% reduction in greenhouse gases by the year 2050 and covers all sectors. The study shows that the transformation from a high-carbon to a low-carbon economy is possible and affordable. It notes that by committing to this transformation path, Germany could become a model for other countries.

2015 Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project study

The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) aims to demonstrate how countries can transform their energy systems by 2050 in order to achieve a low-carbon economy. The 2015 German country report, produced in association with the Wuppertal Institute, examines the official target of reducing domestic GHG emissions by 80% to 95% by 2050 (compared with 1990). Decarbonization pathways for Germany are illustrated by means of three ambitious scenarios with energy-related emission reductions between 1990 and 2050 varying between 80% and more than 90%. Three strategies strongly contribute to GHG emission reduction:

• energy efficiency improvements (in all sectors but especially in buildings)
• increased use of domestic renewables (with a focus on electricity generation)
• electrification and (in two of the scenarios also) use of renewable electricity-based synthetic fuels (especially in the transport and industry sector)

In addition, some scenarios use controversially:

• final energy demand reductions through behavioral changes (modal shift in transport, changes in eating and heating habits)
• net imports of electricity from renewable sources or of bioenergy
• use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology to reduce industry sector GHG emissions (including cement production)

Potential co-benefits for Germany include increased energy security, higher competitiveness of and global business opportunities for companies, job creation, stronger GDP growth, smaller energy bills for households, and less air pollution.

2015 Fraunhofer ISE study

Using the model REMod-D (Renewable Energy Model – Germany), this 2015 Fraunhofer ISE study investigates several system transformation scenarios and their related costs. The guiding question of the study is: how can a cost-optimised transformation of the German energy system — with consideration of all energy carriers and consumer sectors — be achieved while meeting the declared climate protection targets and ensuring a secure energy supply at all times. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is explicitly excluded from the scenarios. A future energy scenario emitting 85% less CO₂ emissions than 1990 levels is compared with a reference scenario, which assumes that the German energy system operates in 2050 the same way as it does today. Under this comparison, primary energy supply drops 42%. The total cumulative costs depend on the future prices for carbon and oil. If the penalty for CO₂ emissions increases to €100/tonne by 2030 and thereafter remains constant and fossil fuel prices increase annually by 2%, then the total cumulative costs of today's energy system are 8% higher than the costs required for the minus 85% scenario up to 2050. The report also notes:

From the macroeconomic perspective, the transformation of Germany's energy system demands a significant shift in cash flow, moving the cash spent on energy imports today to spend it instead on new investments in systems, their operation and maintenance. In this respect a transformed energy system requires a large expenditure for local added value, a factor which also does not appear in the shown cost analysis. (p 8)

2016 acatech study

A 2016 acatech-lead study focused on so-called flexibility technologies used to balance the fluctuations inherent in power generation from wind and photovoltaics. Set in 2050, several scenarios use gas power plants to stabilise the backbone of energy system, ensuring supply security during several weeks of low wind and solar radiation. Other scenarios investigate a 100% renewable system and show these to be possible but more costly. Flexible consumption and storage control (demand-side management) in households and the industrial sector is the most cost-efficient means of balancing short-term power fluctuations. Long-term storage systems, based on power-to-X, are only viable if carbon emissions are to be reduced by more than 80%. On the question of costs, the study notes:

Assuming that the price of emissions allowances in 2050 will significantly surpass its current level, a power generation system boasting a high percentage of wind and photovoltaics will, as a rule, come cheaper than a system dominated by fossil fuel power plants. (p 7)

2016 Stanford University study

The Atmosphere/Energy Program at Stanford University has developed roadmaps for 139 countries to achieve energy systems powered only by wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) by 2050. In the case of Germany, total end-use energy drops from 375.8 GW for business-as-usual to 260.9 GW under a fully renewable transition. Load shares in 2050 would be: on-shore wind 35%, off-shore wind 17%, wave 0.08%, geothermal 0.01%, hydro-electric 0.87%, tidal 0%, residential PV 6.75%, commercial PV 6.48%, utility PV 33.8%, and concentrating solar power 0%. The study also assess avoided air pollution, eliminated global climate change costs, and net job creation. These co-benefits are substantial.

Criticisms

The Energiewende has not been without its critics. At the beginning, after introduction of the German Renewable Energy Act in 2000 there was a focus on long term costs, while in later years this has shifted to a focus on short term costs and the "financial burden" of the Energiewende while ignoring environmental externalities of fossil fuels. German Economy and Energy Minister Sigmar Gabriel admitted "For a country like Germany with a strong industrial base, exiting nuclear and coal-fired power generation at the same time would not be possible." Germany's CO₂ emissions were escalating in 2012 and 2013 and it is planned to reopen some of the dirtiest brown coal mines that had previously been closed. Coal generated electricity increased to 45% in 2013, the highest level since 2007. Nonetheless, in 2014 carbon emissions had declined again. More renewable energy had been generated and a greater energy efficiency had been achieved. From 1999 to 2014 renewable energy production rose from 29 TWh to 161 TWh, while nuclear power fell from 180 to 97 TWh and coal power production fell from 291 to 265 TWh.

Reception by other countries

United States

Robert Fares states two lessons to be learned from the German example:

• coherent government policy can transform an industry
• it is possible to blend low-risk feed-in tariffs with market price signals

See also

• Energy transition
• Renewable energy in the European Union
• Passivhaus
• Renewable energy commercialization
• Energy modeling
• List of countries by renewable electricity production
• Germany National Renewable Energy Action Plan
• Berlin Declaration (2007)
• Wildpoldsried
• German Solar Industry Association
• Amory Lovins
• Soft energy path
• The Fourth Revolution: Energy
• 100% renewable energy
• Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy Energy Topics
• Energy in Germany
• Energieeinsparverordnung

External links

• German Energy Transition — comprehensive website maintained by the Heinrich Böll Foundation
• Energy Concept for an Environmentally Sound, Reliable and Affordable Energy Supply, 28 September 2010 (an English translation of the German policy document)
• Presentation by Amory Lovins to the Berlin Energy Transition Dialogue 2016, 17–18 March 2016