Florida gubernatorial election, 1994

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Florida gubernatorial election, 1994
← 1990 November 8, 1994 1998 →
  SenatorChiles.jpg Gov Jeb Bush'shead.jpg
Nominee Lawton Chiles Jeb Bush
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Buddy MacKay Tom Feeney
Popular vote 2,135,008 2,071,068
Percentage 50.75% 49.23%
Gov 1994 fl.png
County Results
Governor before election

Lawton Chiles
Democratic

 Elected Governor

Lawton Chiles
Democratic

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An election for governor of Florida was held on November 8, 1994. Incumbent governor Lawton Chiles, a Democrat, survived a strong challenge from businessman Jeb Bush, a Republican, to win re-election. This race was the second closest gubernatorial election in Florida history since Reconstruction due to the strong Republican wave of 1994.

Democrats held the Governor's Mansion until 1999.

Background

Incumbent Lawton Chiles was eligible to run for a second four-year term under the Constitution of Florida. In late 1991, Chiles's disapproval rating rose significantly after he cut funds for education in his first budget. Around 75% of Floridians gave him a fair or poor performance rating.[1] The following year, Chiles's approval rating fell to only 22% and his disapproval reached 76% after the state's inadequate response to Hurricane Andrew.[2] His disapproval rating remained as high as 71% into 1993. As a result, some Democrats suggested that U.S. Senator Bob Graham run for a third, non-consecutive term as governor.[1]

Candidates

Democratic

Republican

Others

  • George "G. G." Boone, self-employed carpenter[3]
  • Calvin "C. C." Reed, former trucking and moving industry worker[3]

Primary results

Democratic primary

Democratic primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Lawton Chiles (Incumbent) 603,657 72.17
Democratic Jack Gargan 232,757 27.83
Total votes 836,414 100

Republican primary

A runoff primary election was scheduled to be held between leading candidate Jeb Bush and second-place candidate James C. Smith because no candidate received a majority of the vote. However, Smith dropped out of the race a few days later, leaving Bush as the Republican nominee for governor.

Republican primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jeb Bush 411,680 45.68
Republican Jim Smith 165,869 18.40
Republican Tom Gallagher 117,067 12.99
Republican Ander Crenshaw 109,148 12.11
Republican Kenneth L. Connor 83,945 9.31
Republican Josephine A. Arnold 8,326 0.92
Republican Bob Bell 5,202 0.58
Total votes 901,237 100

General election campaign

Opinion poll source Date Chiles (D) Bush (R)
Associated Industries of Florida[6] Nov. 3-4, 1994 48% 43%
Mason-Dixon Nov. 1-3, 1994 48% 45%
Orlando Sentinel Nov. 1, 1994 48% 45%
Associated Industries of Florida[6] Oct. 30, 1994 45% 45%
St. Petersburg Times Oct. 16, 1994 39% 49%
Mason-Dixon Oct. 7, 1994 43% 48%
Mason-Dixon Sep. 1-3, 1994 43% 48%
Mason-Dixon Aug. 1-3, 1994 44% 41%
Mason-Dixon July 1–3, 1994 46% 35%
Mason-Dixon Feb. 1-3, 1994 42% 38%
Mason-Dixon Oct. 1-3, 1993 41% 32%

Bush ran as a political conservative, and tried to paint Chiles as beholden to liberal interests. At one point, when asked what he would do for African Americans, Bush responded: "It's time to strive for a society where there's equality of opportunity, not equality of results. So I'm going to answer your question by saying: probably nothing."[7]

The final weeks of the campaign was described as "one of the nastiest in Florida political history."[8]

On October 18, a debate that was broadcast by 36 radio stations was held at Walt Disney World in Orlando. Bush and Chiles stood behind two lecterns decorated with Mickey Mouse ears.[9]

Another debate between Bush and Chiles was conducted by the League of Women Voters of Florida at Tampa Performing Arts Center on November 1. Early in the debate, Chiles again criticized Bush's ad about the death penalty, stating that Bush had outdone his father's ad about Willie Horton and saying "You knew [the ad] was false. You admitted it was false. And I am ashamed that you would use the loss of a mother in an ad like this." Later, during a discussion about school vouchers, Chiles quipped "My mama told me, 'sticks and stones will break my bones,' but names will never hurt me. But let me tell you one other thing about the old liberal. The old He-Coon walks just before the light of day." This referenced Chiles' Florida cracker roots, and served as a deliberate contrast with the more urbane Bush.[10]

In a poll conducted by Associated Industries of Florida between November 3 and November 4, Chiles led Bush by 48%-43%, with a margin of error of 3.5%.[6]

On the day before the election, a bloc of Chiles' campaign used get-out-the-vote phone calls to about 70,000 people. These calls alleged that Bush was a "tax cheat" and that his running mate Tom Feeney planned to destroy Social Security. The information was falsely attributed to a "tax fairness" and a senior citizen advocacy organizations. Chiles denied authorizing the phone calls but still later apologized[1] when the media discovered top officials in his campaign had authorized them. Chiles claimed he was "out of the loop" when the Florida legislature investigated the calls.[11]

Throughout the campaign, Bush raised approximately $7 million, more than half of which came from fundraisers featuring his parents and out-of-state fundraisers sponsored by his family and friends. On each of Barbara and George H. W. Bush's visits to Florida, they raked in about $1 million for the campaign.[12] Chiles limited contributions to $100 per person and raised $6.23 million, which included $2 million in public money.[1]

Results

Chiles prevailed against Bush, winning 2,135,008 votes against Bush's 2,071,068 – a margin of about 1.52%. Additionally, write-in candidates G. G. Boone and C. C. Reed garnered 556 and 27 votes, respectively. With the election occurring during the Republican Revolution, Chiles was one of few Democrats to pull off an upset that night. In Florida alone, Republicans took over the State Senate for the first time in over a century, U.S. Senator Connie Mack III was re-elected in a landslide, Sandra Mortham defeated Ron Saunders for Secretary of State, Gerald A. Lewis was ousted by Robert Milligan for Comptroller, and Frank Brogan, who ran as Bush's running mate in 1998, was re-elected as Commissioner of Education.

During the course of the campaign, Chiles again successfully carried out his "Dixie-Dade Strategy"—winning both Dixie and Dade (now known as Miami-Dade) counties. Chiles also carried the other two major metropolitan counties in the South Florida – Broward and Palm Beach. However, he failed to win the Cuban voters in Miami. In comparison with the 1990 election, Chiles performed significantly worse in North and Central Florida, where he lost his native Polk County. Although he lost several counties in the Panhandle, Chiles' largest margin of victory was in Gadsden County – the only predominantly African-American county in Florida. Bush received his highest percentages of victory in several rural counties in the northern portion of the state, especially Baker, Clay, and Union counties.

Florida gubernatorial election, 1994[13]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Lawton Chiles (Incumbent) 2,135,008 50.75 -5.76
Republican Jeb Bush 2,071,068 49.23 +5.75
Write-ins 583 0.0 0
Majority 63,940 1.52 -11.51
Turnout 4,206,659
Democratic hold Swing

By county

County Chiles% Chiles# Bush% Bush# Others% Others# Total#
Alachua 61.8% 35,030 38.2% 21,624 0% 7 56,661
Baker 31.5% 1,654 68.5% 3,600 0% 0 5,254
Bay 43.1% 17,816 56.9% 23,498 0% 2 41,316
Bradford 37.1% 2,642 62.9% 4,470 1.2% 0 7,112
Brevard 46.6% 72,393 53.4% 82,878 0% 6 155,277
Broward 65.4% 261,368 34.6% 138,333 0% 11 399,712
Calhoun 50.5% 1,811 49.5% 1,775 0% 0 3,586
Charlotte 46.3% 24,159 53.7% 27,965 0% 0 52,124
Citrus 49.3% 20,094 50.7% 20,633 0% 5 40,732
Clay 29.1% 9,986 70.9% 24,290 0% 1 34,276
Collier 38.6% 22,860 61.4% 36,370 0% 0 59,230
Columbia 41.6% 5,288 58.3% 7,408 0% 0 12,696
DeSoto 45.6% 2,856 54.4% 3,407 0% 0 6,263
Dixie 50.2% 2,003 49.7% 1,981 0% 5 3,989
Duval 42.5% 80,945 57.2% 108,900 0% 471 190,316
Escambia 42.2% 33,210 57.7% 45,261 0% 1 78,472
Flagler 52.6% 7,954 47.4% 7,160 0% 0 15,114
Franklin 66.6% 2,636 33.4% 1,324 0% 0 3,960
Gadsden 69.4% 7,751 30.6% 3,422 0% 0 11,173
Gilchrist 47.0% 1,701 53.0% 1,922 0% 0 3,623
Glades 51.4% 1,387 48.6% 1,310 0% 0 2,697
Gulf 56.7% 3,060 43.3% 2,339 0% 0 5,399
Hamilton 50.4% 1,453 49.6% 1,429 0% 0 2,882
Hardee 50.4% 2,695 49.6% 2,649 0% 1 5,345
Hendry 44.2% 2,623 55.8% 3,308 0% 0 5,931
Hernando 50.8% 25,331 49.2% 24,532 0% 0 49,863
Highlands 45.7% 12,323 54.3% 14,617 0% 1 26,940
Hillsborough 48.6% 117,974 51.4% 124,561 0% 11 242,546
Holmes 42.0% 2,134 58.0% 2,942 0% 0 5,076
Indian River 44.3% 16,410 55.7% 20,630 0% 0 37,040
Jackson 46.9% 5,907 53.1% 6,698 0% 0 12,605
Jefferson 61.3% 2,575 38.7% 1,625 0% 0 4,200
Lafayette 45.9% 936 54.1% 1,105 0% 0 2,041
Lake 49.5% 29,797 50.5% 30,394 0% 0 60,191
Lee 43.8% 58,785 56.2% 75,365 0% 0 134,150
Leon 63.4% 47,323 36.6% 27,265 0% 1 74,589
Levy 51.5% 4,588 48.5% 4,322 0% 0 8,910
Liberty 49.0% 947 51.0% 985 0% 0 1,932
Madison 54.3% 2,564 45.7% 2,161 0% 1 4,726
Manatee 49.1% 40,473 50.9% 41,915 0% 0 82,388
Marion 44.7% 31,345 55.3% 38,784 0% 1 70,129
Martin 45.1% 20,706 54.9% 25,239 0% 0 45,945
Miami-Dade 52.0% 215,276 48.0% 198,371 0% 1 413,648
Monroe 56.7% 13,232 43.3% 10,086 1.4% 1 23,319
Nassau 34.8% 5,331 65.2% 9,968 0% 0 15,299
Okaloosa 34.3% 16,459 65.7% 31,459 0% 0 47,918
Okeechobee 49.6% 3,492 50.4% 3,545 0% 0 7,037
Orange 48.0% 85,098 52.0% 92,096 0% 0 177,194
Osceola 45.3% 15,292 54.7% 18,437 0% 1 33,730
Palm Beach 61.3% 198,638 38.7% 125,208 0% 3 323,849
Pasco 52.4% 57,597 47.6% 52,418 0% 5 110,020
Pinellas 51.0% 166,858 49.0% 160,115 0% 7 326,980
Polk 47.9% 58,364 52.5% 65,415 0% 0 123,779
Putnam 39.8% 9,658 52.1% 10,505 0% 0 20,163
Santa Rosa 36.6% 11,726 63.4% 20,345 0% 4 32,075
Sarasota 47.4% 60,770 52.6% 67,531 0% 0 128,301
Seminole 44.3% 39,324 55.7% 49,387 0% 1 88,712
St. Johns 36.7% 12,791 63.3% 22,036 0% 0 34,827
St. Lucie 50.5% 27,956 49.5% 27,436 0% 0 55,392
Sumter 51.1% 5,603 48.9% 5,360 0% 1 10,964
Suwanee 43.7% 3,935 56.3% 5,064 0% 0 8,999
Taylor 49.6% 2,979 50.4% 3,024 0% 0 6,003
Union 28.2% 791 71.8% 2,009 0% 0 2,800
Volusia 53.2% 66,614 46.8% 58,632 0% 34 125,280
Wakulla 59.7% 3,696 40.3% 2,492 0% 0 6,188
Walton 43.8% 5,067 56.2% 6,493 0% 0 11,560
Washington 47.8% 2,968 52.2% 3,240 0% 0 6,208

Aftermath

After the election, the controversial phone calls were labeled "phonegate." Bill Cotterell of the Tallahassee Democrat believed that the phone calls did not affect the result of the election: "I'm quite sure you know, at least half of them just hung up, never even listened to the message. And those who did probably said, well, that's ridiculous, the governor of Florida ... or the lieutenant governor of Florida can't repeal Social Security." Miami Herald writer Mark Silva also argued that phonegate did not impact the outcome of the election, saying that "[the] campaign was won before that happened. The idea that that somehow tipped the election was a canard, it wasn't true." In November 1995, Bush's campaign manager, J. M. "Mac" Stipanovich noted that "it's quite possible the Chiles campaign stole the election by fraud". Bush himself refused to speculate on the impact of the phone calls.[1]

Chiles testified under oath before a state legislative committee in December 1995, becoming the first modern governor of Florida to do so. He told the Senate Executive Business, Ethics, and Elections Committee that he had no knowledge of the "scare calls." After apologizing to any Floridians who may have been misled, the attempt to tie him to phonegate was reduced to a one-man operation led by then-State Senator Charlie Crist. Later, Chiles passed a law banning false attributions for get-out-the-vote phone calls. Chiles remained governor of Florida until suffering a fatal heart attack on December 12, 1998, less than a month before his second term expired.[1]

After his father lost re-election for President of the United States in 1992, Jeb planned on running for president in 2000 after serving for six years as Governor of Florida. However, because he lost this election, his brother George, who was elected governor of Texas on the same night, instead ran for president in 2000.[10] Jeb did run for governor again, however; he defeated Chiles' lieutenant governor Buddy MacKay in 1998 and easily won re-election in 2002.[10][14]

References

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  2. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  4. ↑ https://doe.dos.state.fl.us/elections/resultsarchive/Index.asp?ElectionDate=9/8/1994&DATAMODE=
  5. ↑ https://doe.dos.state.fl.us/elections/resultsarchive/Index.asp?ElectionDate=9/4/1990&DATAMODE=
  6. ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  7. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  8. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  9. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  10. ↑ 10.0 10.1 10.2 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  11. ↑ http://www.uvm.edu/~dguber/POLS234/articles/sabato.htm
  12. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  13. ↑ https://doe.dos.state.fl.us/elections/resultsarchive/Index.asp?ElectionDate=11/8/1994&DATAMODE=
  14. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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