United States presidential election in Michigan, 2004

Main article: United States presidential election, 2004

United States presidential election in Michigan, 2004

November 2, 2004

Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush Party Democratic Republican Home state Massachusetts Texas Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney Electoral vote 17 0 Popular vote 2,479,183 2,313,746 Percentage 51.23% 47.81%

400px County Results   Kerry—60-70%   Kerry—50-60%   Kerry—<50%   Bush—<50%   Bush—50-60%   Bush—60-70%   Bush—70-80%

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President George W. Bush Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Michigan took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 17 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Michigan was won by Democrat nominee John Kerry by a 3.4% margin of victory. Although no Republican carried this state in a presidential election since 1988, early polling showed the race was a toss-up, thus was considered as a possible target for the Republicans. Later polling favored Kerry, leading half of the news organizations predicted Kerry would win the state, but the other half still considered it a swing state.

Caucuses

• Michigan Democratic caucuses, 2004

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.

1. D.C. Political Report: Slight Democrat
2. Associated Press: Toss-Up
3. CNN: Kerry
4. Cook Political Report: Lean Democrat
5. Newsweek: Leans Kerry
6. New York Times: Leans Kerry
7. Rasmussen Reports: Toss-Up
8. Research 2000: Lean Kerry
9. Washington Post: Battleground
10. Washington Times: Leans Kerry
11. Zogby International: Kerry
12. Washington Dispatch: Kerry

Polling

Pre-election polling did show a close race early on, but in the fall election Kerry pulled away and won every poll since the month of September. The last 3 poll average showed Kerry leading 49% to 46%.

Fundraising

Bush raised $4,960,010. Kerry raised $2,496,203.

Advertising and visits

In the fall campaign, Bush visited the state 10 times. Kerry visited 7 visits. Both candidates combined spent over $2 million in advertising each week, but Kerry spent slightly more each week.

Analysis

The state has competitive suburban counties with a large Roman Catholic population. Kerry won this state with 51%. George W. Bush performed moderately well, but below potential, in the state winning a majority of the counties and congressional districts and performing moderately well, but below potential in suburban counties of Oakland and Macomb. Bush's lack of attention to economic issues important to Michigan voters may have been a reason for Kerry's win. Kerry won 70% of Wayne County, Detroit. Both Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush won the state of Michigan.

Results

United States presidential election in Michigan, 2004
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Democratic	John Kerry	2,479,183	51.3%	17
	Republican	George W. Bush (incumbent)	2,313,746	47.8%	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader	24,035	0.5%	0
	Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	10,552	0.2%	0
	Green	David Cobb	5,325	0.1%	0
	US Taxpayers	Michael Peroutka	4,980	0.1%	0
	Natural Law	Walt Brown	1,431	0.0%	0
Totals			-	100.00%	17
Voter turnout (Voting Age Population)					64.2%

Results breakdown

By county

County	Bush	Kerry
Alcona County	3,592	2,871
Alger County	2,318	2,395
Allegan County	34,022	19,355
Alpena County	7,665	7,407
Antrim County	8,379	5,072
Arenac County	4,071	4,076
Baraga County	1,977	1,660
Barry County	18,638	11,312
Bay County	25,448	31,049
Benzie County	5,284	4,383
Berrien County	41,076	32,846
Branch County	10,784	7,004
Calhoun County	32,093	29,891
Cass County	12,964	9,537
Charlevoix County	8,214	5,729
Cheboygan County	7,798	5,941
Chippewa County	9,122	7,203
Clare County	7,088	6,984
Clinton County	21,989	15,483
Crawford County	4,017	3,126
Delta County	9,680	9,381
Dickinson County	7,734	5,650
Eaton County	29,781	25,411
Emmet County	10,332	6,846
Genesee County	83,870	128,334
Gladwin County	6,770	6,343
Gogebic County	3,935	4,421
Grand Traverse County	27,446	18,256
Gratiot County	9,834	7,377
Hillsdale County	12,804	7,123
Houghton County	8,889	6,731
Huron County	9,671	7,629
Ingham County	54,734	76,877
Ionia County	16,621	10,647
Iosco County	7,301	6,557
Iron County	3,224	3,215
Isabella County	11,754	12,334
Jackson County	40,029	31,025
Kalamazoo County	57,147	61,462
Kalkaska County	5,084	3,189
Kent County	171,201	116,909
Keweenaw County	781	630
Lake County	2,503	2,675
Lapeer County	25,556	18,086
Leelanau County	7,733	6,048
Lenawee County	25,675	20,787
Livingston County	58,860	33,991
Luce County	1,749	1,045
Mackinac County	3,706	2,819
Macomb County	202,166	196,160
Manistee County	6,295	6,272
Marquette County	14,690	17,412
Mason County	8,124	6,333
Mecosta County	9,710	7,730
Menominee County	5,942	5,326
Midland County	24,369	18,355
Missaukee County	5,055	2,319
Monroe County	37,470	36,089
Montcalm County	14,968	11,471
Montmorency County	3,300	2,196
Muskegon County	35,302	44,282
Newaygo County	13,608	9,057
Oakland County	316,633	319,387
Oceana County	6,677	5,441
Ogemaw County	5,454	5,215
Ontonagon County	2,262	1,863
Osceola County	6,599	4,467
Oscoda County	2,570	1,792
Otsego County	7,470	4,674
Ottawa County	92,048	35,552
Presque Isle County	3,982	3,432
Roscommon County	7,364	6,810
Saginaw County	47,165	54,887
St. Clair County	42,740	36,174
St. Joseph County	15,340	9,648
Sanilac County	12,632	7,883
Schoolcraft County	2,267	2,137
Shiawassee County	19,407	16,881
Tuscola County	15,389	12,631
Van Buren County	17,634	16,151
Washtenaw County	61,455	109,953
Wayne County	257,750	600,047
Wexford County	8,966	6,034

By congressional district

Bush won 10 of 15 congressional districts.

District	Bush	Kerry	Representative
1st	53%	46%	Bart Stupak
2nd	60%	39%	Peter Hoekstra
3rd	59%	40%	Vern Ehlers
4th	55%	44%	Dave Camp
5th	41%	59%	Dale Kildee
6th	53%	46%	Fred Upton
7th	54%	45%	Nick Smith
			Joe Schwarz
8th	54%	45%	Mike Rogers
9th	51%	49%	Joe Knollenberg
10th	57%	43%	Candice Miller
11th	53%	47%	Thaddeus McCotter
12th	39%	61%	Sander Levin
13th	19%	81%	Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick
14th	17%	83%	John Conyers Jr.
15th	38%	62%	John Dingell

Electors

Main article: List of United States presidential electors, 2004

Technically the voters of Michigan cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Michigan is allocated 17 electors because it has 15 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 17 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 17 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 17 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards:

1. Carol Vining Moore
2. Margaret Robinson
3. Ida I. DeHaas
4. Marcela L. Ort
5. Vickie Sue Price
6. Paul Todd
7. Leonard Smigielski
8. Bruce McAttee
9. Stanley W. Harris
10. Yvonne Williams
11. Elizabeth D. Tavarozzi
12. Charley Jackson
13. Joan Robinson Cheeks
14. Roger Short
15. Harless Scott
16. Richard Shoemaker
17. Michael Pitt