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Tuhin Ghosh

Jadavpur University, SCHOOL OF OCEANOGRAPHIC STUDIES, Faculty Member

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Tuhin Ghosh is Professor and Director of the School of Oceanographic Studies, Jadavpur University, India. He has expertise in coastal geomorphology, disaster management, climate change impacts, adaptation strategies, and human migration. He is the Lead Author of IPCC Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere Chapter 4: Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities. He has been also invited to act as a Lead Author on Urban Climate Science in UCCRN ARC3.3. He was the India Lead of 'ESPA-Delta', ‘Deltas’ and ‘DECCMA’ project, and ongoing ‘Living Deltas’ Hub.

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Papers by Tuhin Ghosh

Understanding climate change livelihoods in coastal Bangladesh

A Geospatial Analysis of the Social, Economic and Environmental Dimensions and Drivers of Poverty in South-West Coastal Bangladesh

Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas, 2018

Indian Journal of Geography and Environment Vol. 3 [1998]

Indian Jownnl ojGeography & Environment is published once a year containing original research pap... more Indian Jownnl ojGeography & Environment is published once a year containing original research papers 011 scientific and cultural aspects of geography, environment and related themes. Papers may be uni-or multi disciplinary but should have an interdisciplinary appeal. Submission of Articles: Publication of articles is subject to the approval of the referees. For consideration, two double-spaced typed copies of the article, on one side of A4 paper, are to be sent to the Editor-in-Chief. Indian

Changing ice sheets of the northern Indian Himalaya during last decades using LANDSAT (optical satellite image) and GRACE-Tellus (Monthly Mass Grid-Land) data

The northern Indian Himalaya region is distributed in three Indian states, Jammu & Kashmir, Himac... more The northern Indian Himalaya region is distributed in three Indian states, Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh & Uttaranchal. This part of Himalaya is covered by thousands of sq km of ice sheet which not only act as the source of many important rivers of the Indian subcontinent, also act as the major controlling factor of the climate condition of this region. In this study, highly efficient satellite data like LANDSAT optical satellite imageries and Grace-Tellus Monthly Mass Grid data have been used to assess the changes in the ice sheet in this area through last sixteen years. A combination of Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) and supervised classification applied on the mosaiced satellite images of LANDSAT series of the year 2000 and 2016, in the month of February. The result shows along with a significant loss of the ice-covered area ( ∼ 3500 Sq Km), while the ice sheet of the year 2016 is much more fragmented. To understand the dynamics of the thickness of the ice sheet of t...

Comparative Assessment of Morphological and Landuse/Landcover Change Pattern of Sagar, Ghoramara, and Mousani Island of Indian Sundarban Delta Through Remote Sensing

Springer remote sensing/photogrammetry, Sep 25, 2016

Deltaic island systems are becoming vulnerable with frequent embankment failures, beach erosion a... more Deltaic island systems are becoming vulnerable with frequent embankment failures, beach erosion and submergence, and flooding throughout the world. In addition to this, the alarming growth of population in this ecologically sensitive and fragile niche has posed a major threat for its very existence. The impact of sea level rise in combination with complex hydrodynamic conditions has caused severe coastal erosion in the islands of the Indian Sundarban Delta (ISD). The Sagar, Ghoramara, and Mousani Island, situated at the western part of the Indian Sundarban Delta, are the focus of this study. This study aims at the assessment of morphological changes due to the erosion and consequential land use/land cover changes. The study area is a densely populated region with 2 % growth per annum. The immediate consequences of population growth could be the decrease of agricultural land through expansion of the settlement area. Morphological changes along with high population growth create pressure on resources by lowering per capita land availability. Though having a similar environmental set up, all the three islands that are being studied have different change pattern depending on the morphological and anthropogenic activities. This study tries to compare the changes among these three islands. Assessment of the land use pattern change and the estimation of erosion have been done with the application of Remote Sensing. Temporal analysis using satellite images of 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 unfold the variation in the geomorphic and the land use type and help to formulate the strategic planning for the sustenance of the island.

The Changing Pattern of Livelihood in Sagar Island, West Bengal, India

Global journal of interdisciplinary social sciences, 2015

The reclaimed parts of the Sunderbans are very susceptible to various hazards. Natural calamities... more The reclaimed parts of the Sunderbans are very susceptible to various hazards. Natural calamities from climatic and tectonic hazards are common, inevitable and the nature might overcome it in its very own way but anthropogenic hazards bring disasters. Reclamation of islands from inundation for last two hundred years has left the region with such a level that the beds of the rivers had raised enough due to siltation. At the time of high tide rivers flow at a higher level than the villages. Embankments were initially erected in purview of protecting the land from saline water intrusion. During cyclonic upsurges the water level goes further above the crest of the embankment. As a result cyclone usually results into inundation of the villages, loss of life, loss of property etc. Income shocks are very frequent in this part rendering the population highly vulnerable as society is agrarian with a practice of mono cropping.

COVID-19 pandemic in the Arctic and Subarctic

Elsevier eBooks, 2022

Sustainability assessment of Indian Sundarban delta islands using DPSIR framework in the context of natural hazards

Natural Hazards Research

Assessing coastal vulnerability and governance in Mahanadi Delta, Odisha, India

Progress in Disaster Science, 2022

Natural Hazards Management in Asia

https://in.sagepub.com/en-in/sas/natural-hazards-management-in-asia/book260047 Natural disasters ... more https://in.sagepub.com/en-in/sas/natural-hazards-management-in-asia/book260047 Natural disasters are more common now than they have been ever before. Globally, climates are changing and natural hazards are becoming routine. This book is a study of natural hazards and how they turn into disasters—with a focus on Asian countries. It takes a holistic view of the subject and discusses different concepts of disaster management to understand both theory as well as practice. The book also explains best practices and the most effective tools for alleviating the consequences of such disasters. This study provides insight into the impact of natural disasters on human life, infrastructure, and economy and analyzes mitigation strategies with reference to numerous case studies. It also outlines the policies and laws that govern disaster management in India and abroad.

Social vulnerability to environmental hazards in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta, India and Bangladesh

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2021

This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the ad... more This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the addition of a cover page and metadata, and formatting for readability, but it is not yet the definitive version of record. This version will undergo additional copyediting, typesetting and review before it is published in its final form, but we are providing this version to give early visibility of the article. Please note that, during the production process, errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.

Migration in Deltas: An Integrated Analysis

Deltas and low-lying coastal regions have long been perceived as vulnerable to global sea-level r... more Deltas and low-lying coastal regions have long been perceived as vulnerable to global sea-level rise, with the potential for mass displacement of exposed populations. The assumption of mass displacement of populations in deltas requires a comprehensive reassessment in the light of present and future migration in deltas, including the potential role of adaptation to influence these decisions. At present, deltas are subject to multiple drivers of environmental change and often have high population densities as they are accessible and productive ecosystems. Climate change, catchment management, subsidence and land cover change drive environmental change across all deltas. Populations in deltas are also highly mobile, with significant urbanization trends and the growth of large cities and mega-cities within or adjacent to deltas across Asia and Africa. Such migration is driven primarily by economic opportunity, yet environmental change in general, and climate change in particular, are likely to play an increasing direct and indirect role in future migration trends. The policy challenges centre on the role of migration within regional adaptation strategies to climate change; the protection of vulnerable populations; and the future of urban settlements within deltas. This paper reviews current knowledge on migration and adaptation to environmental change to discern specific issues pertinent to delta regions. It develops a new integrated methodology to assess present and future migration in deltas using the Volta delta in Ghana, Mahanadi delta in India and Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta across India and Bangladesh. The integrated method focuses on: biophysical changes and spatial distribution of vulnerability; demographic changes and migration decision-making using multiple methods and data; macroeconomic trends and scenarios in the deltas; and the policies and governance structures that constrain and enable adaptation. The analysis is facilitated by a range of consistent scenarios from global to delta scales, developed in consultation with major stakeholders. Initial results suggest that migration decision-making strongly interacts with diverse measures for adaptation of land, water and agricultural management. A key normative challenge is to identify the parameters of successful migration and adaptation across delta regions, to inform policy analysis and formulation.

Agricultural productivity, household poverty and migration in the Indian Sundarban Delta

Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 2018

Deltas are highly sensitive to erosion, flooding, and salinization with consequential agricultura... more Deltas are highly sensitive to erosion, flooding, and salinization with consequential agricultural productivity losses and out-migration, which is a preferred adaptive measure for the inhabitants of deltaic islands. This study investigates the associations between agricultural productivity decrease, household poverty and the probability of out-migration in the Indian Sundarban Delta (ISD). Using newly collected survey data from randomly selected households within the ISD, we analysed these relationships by means of descriptive statistics and regression modeling. Results suggest the significant positive association between a decrease in agricultural productivity and out-migration. The results further show that ceteris paribus, out-migration is negatively associated with household poverty, which is likely to be explained by the effect of remittances. The results yield important policy implications at the local level and can contribute to the progress towards sustainable livelihoods in...

Upstream River Erosion vis-a-vis Sediments Variability in Hugli Estuary, India: A Geospatial Approach

Water

Satellite data shows that the Bhagirathi-Hugli River’s riverbank has faced severe erosion during ... more Satellite data shows that the Bhagirathi-Hugli River’s riverbank has faced severe erosion during the last decades (1990 to 2020), with the middle stretch of the river being more prone to erosion. This huge sediment load derived from upstream erosion is coming to the estuary. The suspended sediment concentration dynamics of the Hugli estuary were calculated using in-situ data and remote sensing reflectance by establishing a linear regression. A continuous huge sediment load is found in the estuarine water. The sediment concentration was higher pre-monsoon than post-monsoon as the region is highly influenced by monsoonal rainfall and runoff. The sediment concentration was also higher in the estuary’s southwestern section than in the northern part. The impact of this high sediment load contributes to the deposition. This depositional area assessment was performed using an object-based classification approach called Support Vector Machine utilizing Grey Level Co-occurrence Matrix to cre...

Understanding vulnerabilities using a hotspot approach

Our research indicates and reemphasises that social vulnerability maybe compounded by changing bi... more Our research indicates and reemphasises that social vulnerability maybe compounded by changing biophysical and climatic conditions, indicating likely situations of widespread vulnerability. We also observe that biophysical conditions are changing distinctly and influencing livelihood regimes. Hence, it becomes imperative to address underlying socioeconomic and biophysical conditions that drives vulnerabilities, but in the context of changing livelihood and agricultural practises. This also has strong complementarity with the targets under Sustainable Development Goals and resonates with the Hotspot Approach. The various pieces of research when weaved together present unique findings that on one hand are very location specific and on the other, when synthesised and abstracted, can lead to informing proactive climate planning. These issues will be further discussed in Brief 3 on Adaptation Policy.

by Tuhin Ghosh and Cv_Tuhin Ghosh

I have expertise in coastal geomorphology, disaster management, climate change impacts, adaptatio... more I have expertise in coastal geomorphology, disaster management, climate change impacts, adaptation strategies, and human migration. I was the India Lead of NERC(UK) funded 'ESPA-Delta', Belmont Forum 'Deltas' and IDRC (Canada) & DfID/FCDO (UK) funded 'DECCMA' project, and also in the ongoing UKRI-GCRF funded 'Living Deltas Hub'. I have acted as the Lead Author of IPCC Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere Chapter 4: Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities. I have also been invited to act as a Lead Author on Urban Climate Science in UCCRN ARC3.3 report.

A Qualitative Assessment of Natural and Anthropogenic Drivers of Risk to Sustainable Livelihoods in the Indian Sundarban

Sustainability

In the Indian Sundarban, multiple attributes and interactions of natural hazards, exposure, and v... more In the Indian Sundarban, multiple attributes and interactions of natural hazards, exposure, and vulnerability pose severe threats to lives and livelihoods. Understanding the cause-and-effect relationships contributing to the risk of loss of sustainable livelihoods has become imperative but has not yet been holistically explored in a single study that provides a broader picture of all possible complex interactions. This study used the impact chain tool to holistically understand the risk that manifests as a result of interactions of hazards, exposure, and vulnerability. The secondary literature and authors’ observations helped us structure the first draft of the impact chain, which was further developed and validated through fourteen gender-disaggregated interviews with key informants and delta dwellers. This validation process identified the complex interconnections contributing to risk as experienced by experts and delta dwellers, which is seldom reflected through exclusively quant...

Ocean and Sustainable Development: A Preliminary Assessment for India

The discussion on Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), till today, mainly centred around the form... more The discussion on Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), till today, mainly centred around the formulation of targets, setting of indicators and collection of baseline data. But what seems to be more important is to articulate the actions in three domains (environmental, economic and social policy) and to evaluate in future the indicators that have already been set.

Linking IPCC AR4 & AR5 frameworks for assessing vulnerability and risk to climate change in the Indian Bengal Delta

Progress in Disaster Science, 2020

R e c ei v e d 2 9 M ar c h 2 0 2 0 R e c ei v e d i n r e vi s e d f or m 3 0 M a y 2 0 2 0 A c ... more R e c ei v e d 2 9 M ar c h 2 0 2 0 R e c ei v e d i n r e vi s e d f or m 3 0 M a y 2 0 2 0 A c c e pt e d I J u n e 2 0 2 0 A v ail a bl e o nli n e 6 J u n e 2 0 2 0 K e y w or d s: I nt er g o v er n m e nt al P a n el o n Cli m at e C h a n g e V ul n er a bilit y Ri s k A d a pti v e c a p a cit y D elt a T h e t er m ' v ul n er a bilit y' is u s e d t o e x a mi n e t h e i nt erli n k a g e s b et w e e n h u m a n s a n d t h eir s o ci al a n d p h ysi c al s urr o u n di n gs. T his a p pr o a c h is si mil ar t o t h e I P C C A R 4 's (2 0 0 7) c o n c e pt u al fr a m e w or k of v ul n er a bilit y t o cli m at e c h a n g e. T h e I P C C A R 5 (2 0 1 4) i ntr o d u c e s a n e w a p pr o a c h a n d t er mi n ol o g y t h at is i n li n e wit h t h e c o n c e pt of ris k, t h u s diff eri n g fr o m t h e pr e vi o us u n d er st a n di n g of v ul n er a bilit y as m e nti o n e d i n t h e I P C C A R 4. T his st u d y att e m pt s t o li n k t h e n e w c o n c e pt of ris k (A R 5) wit h t h e pr e vi o us c o n c e pt of v ul n er a bilit y (A R 4). B as e d o n I P C C A R 4 a n d A R 5 fr a m e w or ks, diff er e nt bi o-p h ysi c al a n d s o ci o-e c o n o mi c v ari a bl es h a v e b e e n u s e d f or v ul n er a bilit y (A R 4) a n d ris k (A R 5) ass ess m e nts i n t h e 5 1 s u b-distri cts (c o m m u nit y d e v el o p m e nt bl o c ks) of t h e I n di a n p art of G a n g e s-Br a h m a p utr aM e g h n a D elt a (I n di a n B e n g al D elt a or I B O) a p pl yi n g pri n ci p al c o m p o n e nt a n al ysis (P C A). T h e r es ults s h o w t h at B as a nti is t h e m o st v ul n er abl e s u b-di stri ct usi n g t h e A R 4 a p pr o a c h, w h er e a s G os a b a is f o u n d t o b e t h e hi g hl y e x p o s e d t o ris k usi n g t h e A R 5 a ppr o a c h. B ot h s u b-di stri ct s ar e s p ati all y c o nti g u o u s a n d wit h si mil ar g e o gr a p hi c c h ar a ct eri sti c s w hi c h r efl e ct s t h e v ali dit y of t h e I P C C fr a m e w or ks of a s s e s s m e nt Pri n ci p al c o m p o n e nt a n al y si s

Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta, Bangladesh and India: A Transnational Mega-Delta

Deltas in the Anthropocene, 2019

The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Delta at the north of the Bay of Bengal is administrated by b... more The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Delta at the north of the Bay of Bengal is administrated by both India and Bangladesh. It is characterised by a number of livelihood opportunities resulting from high population density, as well as a number of biophysical and socioeconomic challenges (flooding, erosion, cyclones, salinisation, water logging, etc.) which are increasing alongside the changing climate and anthropogenic developments.

Understanding climate change livelihoods in coastal Bangladesh

A Geospatial Analysis of the Social, Economic and Environmental Dimensions and Drivers of Poverty in South-West Coastal Bangladesh

Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas, 2018

Indian Journal of Geography and Environment Vol. 3 [1998]

Indian Jownnl ojGeography & Environment is published once a year containing original research pap... more Indian Jownnl ojGeography & Environment is published once a year containing original research papers 011 scientific and cultural aspects of geography, environment and related themes. Papers may be uni-or multi disciplinary but should have an interdisciplinary appeal. Submission of Articles: Publication of articles is subject to the approval of the referees. For consideration, two double-spaced typed copies of the article, on one side of A4 paper, are to be sent to the Editor-in-Chief. Indian

Changing ice sheets of the northern Indian Himalaya during last decades using LANDSAT (optical satellite image) and GRACE-Tellus (Monthly Mass Grid-Land) data

The northern Indian Himalaya region is distributed in three Indian states, Jammu & Kashmir, Himac... more The northern Indian Himalaya region is distributed in three Indian states, Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh & Uttaranchal. This part of Himalaya is covered by thousands of sq km of ice sheet which not only act as the source of many important rivers of the Indian subcontinent, also act as the major controlling factor of the climate condition of this region. In this study, highly efficient satellite data like LANDSAT optical satellite imageries and Grace-Tellus Monthly Mass Grid data have been used to assess the changes in the ice sheet in this area through last sixteen years. A combination of Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) and supervised classification applied on the mosaiced satellite images of LANDSAT series of the year 2000 and 2016, in the month of February. The result shows along with a significant loss of the ice-covered area ( ∼ 3500 Sq Km), while the ice sheet of the year 2016 is much more fragmented. To understand the dynamics of the thickness of the ice sheet of t...

Comparative Assessment of Morphological and Landuse/Landcover Change Pattern of Sagar, Ghoramara, and Mousani Island of Indian Sundarban Delta Through Remote Sensing

Springer remote sensing/photogrammetry, Sep 25, 2016

Deltaic island systems are becoming vulnerable with frequent embankment failures, beach erosion a... more Deltaic island systems are becoming vulnerable with frequent embankment failures, beach erosion and submergence, and flooding throughout the world. In addition to this, the alarming growth of population in this ecologically sensitive and fragile niche has posed a major threat for its very existence. The impact of sea level rise in combination with complex hydrodynamic conditions has caused severe coastal erosion in the islands of the Indian Sundarban Delta (ISD). The Sagar, Ghoramara, and Mousani Island, situated at the western part of the Indian Sundarban Delta, are the focus of this study. This study aims at the assessment of morphological changes due to the erosion and consequential land use/land cover changes. The study area is a densely populated region with 2 % growth per annum. The immediate consequences of population growth could be the decrease of agricultural land through expansion of the settlement area. Morphological changes along with high population growth create pressure on resources by lowering per capita land availability. Though having a similar environmental set up, all the three islands that are being studied have different change pattern depending on the morphological and anthropogenic activities. This study tries to compare the changes among these three islands. Assessment of the land use pattern change and the estimation of erosion have been done with the application of Remote Sensing. Temporal analysis using satellite images of 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 unfold the variation in the geomorphic and the land use type and help to formulate the strategic planning for the sustenance of the island.

The Changing Pattern of Livelihood in Sagar Island, West Bengal, India

Global journal of interdisciplinary social sciences, 2015

The reclaimed parts of the Sunderbans are very susceptible to various hazards. Natural calamities... more The reclaimed parts of the Sunderbans are very susceptible to various hazards. Natural calamities from climatic and tectonic hazards are common, inevitable and the nature might overcome it in its very own way but anthropogenic hazards bring disasters. Reclamation of islands from inundation for last two hundred years has left the region with such a level that the beds of the rivers had raised enough due to siltation. At the time of high tide rivers flow at a higher level than the villages. Embankments were initially erected in purview of protecting the land from saline water intrusion. During cyclonic upsurges the water level goes further above the crest of the embankment. As a result cyclone usually results into inundation of the villages, loss of life, loss of property etc. Income shocks are very frequent in this part rendering the population highly vulnerable as society is agrarian with a practice of mono cropping.

COVID-19 pandemic in the Arctic and Subarctic

Elsevier eBooks, 2022

Sustainability assessment of Indian Sundarban delta islands using DPSIR framework in the context of natural hazards

Natural Hazards Research

Assessing coastal vulnerability and governance in Mahanadi Delta, Odisha, India

Progress in Disaster Science, 2022

Natural Hazards Management in Asia

https://in.sagepub.com/en-in/sas/natural-hazards-management-in-asia/book260047 Natural disasters ... more https://in.sagepub.com/en-in/sas/natural-hazards-management-in-asia/book260047 Natural disasters are more common now than they have been ever before. Globally, climates are changing and natural hazards are becoming routine. This book is a study of natural hazards and how they turn into disasters—with a focus on Asian countries. It takes a holistic view of the subject and discusses different concepts of disaster management to understand both theory as well as practice. The book also explains best practices and the most effective tools for alleviating the consequences of such disasters. This study provides insight into the impact of natural disasters on human life, infrastructure, and economy and analyzes mitigation strategies with reference to numerous case studies. It also outlines the policies and laws that govern disaster management in India and abroad.

Social vulnerability to environmental hazards in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta, India and Bangladesh

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2021

This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the ad... more This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the addition of a cover page and metadata, and formatting for readability, but it is not yet the definitive version of record. This version will undergo additional copyediting, typesetting and review before it is published in its final form, but we are providing this version to give early visibility of the article. Please note that, during the production process, errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.

Migration in Deltas: An Integrated Analysis

Deltas and low-lying coastal regions have long been perceived as vulnerable to global sea-level r... more Deltas and low-lying coastal regions have long been perceived as vulnerable to global sea-level rise, with the potential for mass displacement of exposed populations. The assumption of mass displacement of populations in deltas requires a comprehensive reassessment in the light of present and future migration in deltas, including the potential role of adaptation to influence these decisions. At present, deltas are subject to multiple drivers of environmental change and often have high population densities as they are accessible and productive ecosystems. Climate change, catchment management, subsidence and land cover change drive environmental change across all deltas. Populations in deltas are also highly mobile, with significant urbanization trends and the growth of large cities and mega-cities within or adjacent to deltas across Asia and Africa. Such migration is driven primarily by economic opportunity, yet environmental change in general, and climate change in particular, are likely to play an increasing direct and indirect role in future migration trends. The policy challenges centre on the role of migration within regional adaptation strategies to climate change; the protection of vulnerable populations; and the future of urban settlements within deltas. This paper reviews current knowledge on migration and adaptation to environmental change to discern specific issues pertinent to delta regions. It develops a new integrated methodology to assess present and future migration in deltas using the Volta delta in Ghana, Mahanadi delta in India and Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta across India and Bangladesh. The integrated method focuses on: biophysical changes and spatial distribution of vulnerability; demographic changes and migration decision-making using multiple methods and data; macroeconomic trends and scenarios in the deltas; and the policies and governance structures that constrain and enable adaptation. The analysis is facilitated by a range of consistent scenarios from global to delta scales, developed in consultation with major stakeholders. Initial results suggest that migration decision-making strongly interacts with diverse measures for adaptation of land, water and agricultural management. A key normative challenge is to identify the parameters of successful migration and adaptation across delta regions, to inform policy analysis and formulation.

Agricultural productivity, household poverty and migration in the Indian Sundarban Delta

Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 2018

Deltas are highly sensitive to erosion, flooding, and salinization with consequential agricultura... more Deltas are highly sensitive to erosion, flooding, and salinization with consequential agricultural productivity losses and out-migration, which is a preferred adaptive measure for the inhabitants of deltaic islands. This study investigates the associations between agricultural productivity decrease, household poverty and the probability of out-migration in the Indian Sundarban Delta (ISD). Using newly collected survey data from randomly selected households within the ISD, we analysed these relationships by means of descriptive statistics and regression modeling. Results suggest the significant positive association between a decrease in agricultural productivity and out-migration. The results further show that ceteris paribus, out-migration is negatively associated with household poverty, which is likely to be explained by the effect of remittances. The results yield important policy implications at the local level and can contribute to the progress towards sustainable livelihoods in...

Upstream River Erosion vis-a-vis Sediments Variability in Hugli Estuary, India: A Geospatial Approach

Water

Satellite data shows that the Bhagirathi-Hugli River’s riverbank has faced severe erosion during ... more Satellite data shows that the Bhagirathi-Hugli River’s riverbank has faced severe erosion during the last decades (1990 to 2020), with the middle stretch of the river being more prone to erosion. This huge sediment load derived from upstream erosion is coming to the estuary. The suspended sediment concentration dynamics of the Hugli estuary were calculated using in-situ data and remote sensing reflectance by establishing a linear regression. A continuous huge sediment load is found in the estuarine water. The sediment concentration was higher pre-monsoon than post-monsoon as the region is highly influenced by monsoonal rainfall and runoff. The sediment concentration was also higher in the estuary’s southwestern section than in the northern part. The impact of this high sediment load contributes to the deposition. This depositional area assessment was performed using an object-based classification approach called Support Vector Machine utilizing Grey Level Co-occurrence Matrix to cre...

Understanding vulnerabilities using a hotspot approach

Our research indicates and reemphasises that social vulnerability maybe compounded by changing bi... more Our research indicates and reemphasises that social vulnerability maybe compounded by changing biophysical and climatic conditions, indicating likely situations of widespread vulnerability. We also observe that biophysical conditions are changing distinctly and influencing livelihood regimes. Hence, it becomes imperative to address underlying socioeconomic and biophysical conditions that drives vulnerabilities, but in the context of changing livelihood and agricultural practises. This also has strong complementarity with the targets under Sustainable Development Goals and resonates with the Hotspot Approach. The various pieces of research when weaved together present unique findings that on one hand are very location specific and on the other, when synthesised and abstracted, can lead to informing proactive climate planning. These issues will be further discussed in Brief 3 on Adaptation Policy.

by Tuhin Ghosh and Cv_Tuhin Ghosh

I have expertise in coastal geomorphology, disaster management, climate change impacts, adaptatio... more I have expertise in coastal geomorphology, disaster management, climate change impacts, adaptation strategies, and human migration. I was the India Lead of NERC(UK) funded 'ESPA-Delta', Belmont Forum 'Deltas' and IDRC (Canada) & DfID/FCDO (UK) funded 'DECCMA' project, and also in the ongoing UKRI-GCRF funded 'Living Deltas Hub'. I have acted as the Lead Author of IPCC Special Report on Ocean and Cryosphere Chapter 4: Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities. I have also been invited to act as a Lead Author on Urban Climate Science in UCCRN ARC3.3 report.

A Qualitative Assessment of Natural and Anthropogenic Drivers of Risk to Sustainable Livelihoods in the Indian Sundarban

Sustainability

In the Indian Sundarban, multiple attributes and interactions of natural hazards, exposure, and v... more In the Indian Sundarban, multiple attributes and interactions of natural hazards, exposure, and vulnerability pose severe threats to lives and livelihoods. Understanding the cause-and-effect relationships contributing to the risk of loss of sustainable livelihoods has become imperative but has not yet been holistically explored in a single study that provides a broader picture of all possible complex interactions. This study used the impact chain tool to holistically understand the risk that manifests as a result of interactions of hazards, exposure, and vulnerability. The secondary literature and authors’ observations helped us structure the first draft of the impact chain, which was further developed and validated through fourteen gender-disaggregated interviews with key informants and delta dwellers. This validation process identified the complex interconnections contributing to risk as experienced by experts and delta dwellers, which is seldom reflected through exclusively quant...

Ocean and Sustainable Development: A Preliminary Assessment for India

The discussion on Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), till today, mainly centred around the form... more The discussion on Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), till today, mainly centred around the formulation of targets, setting of indicators and collection of baseline data. But what seems to be more important is to articulate the actions in three domains (environmental, economic and social policy) and to evaluate in future the indicators that have already been set.

Linking IPCC AR4 & AR5 frameworks for assessing vulnerability and risk to climate change in the Indian Bengal Delta

Progress in Disaster Science, 2020

R e c ei v e d 2 9 M ar c h 2 0 2 0 R e c ei v e d i n r e vi s e d f or m 3 0 M a y 2 0 2 0 A c ... more R e c ei v e d 2 9 M ar c h 2 0 2 0 R e c ei v e d i n r e vi s e d f or m 3 0 M a y 2 0 2 0 A c c e pt e d I J u n e 2 0 2 0 A v ail a bl e o nli n e 6 J u n e 2 0 2 0 K e y w or d s: I nt er g o v er n m e nt al P a n el o n Cli m at e C h a n g e V ul n er a bilit y Ri s k A d a pti v e c a p a cit y D elt a T h e t er m ' v ul n er a bilit y' is u s e d t o e x a mi n e t h e i nt erli n k a g e s b et w e e n h u m a n s a n d t h eir s o ci al a n d p h ysi c al s urr o u n di n gs. T his a p pr o a c h is si mil ar t o t h e I P C C A R 4 's (2 0 0 7) c o n c e pt u al fr a m e w or k of v ul n er a bilit y t o cli m at e c h a n g e. T h e I P C C A R 5 (2 0 1 4) i ntr o d u c e s a n e w a p pr o a c h a n d t er mi n ol o g y t h at is i n li n e wit h t h e c o n c e pt of ris k, t h u s diff eri n g fr o m t h e pr e vi o us u n d er st a n di n g of v ul n er a bilit y as m e nti o n e d i n t h e I P C C A R 4. T his st u d y att e m pt s t o li n k t h e n e w c o n c e pt of ris k (A R 5) wit h t h e pr e vi o us c o n c e pt of v ul n er a bilit y (A R 4). B as e d o n I P C C A R 4 a n d A R 5 fr a m e w or ks, diff er e nt bi o-p h ysi c al a n d s o ci o-e c o n o mi c v ari a bl es h a v e b e e n u s e d f or v ul n er a bilit y (A R 4) a n d ris k (A R 5) ass ess m e nts i n t h e 5 1 s u b-distri cts (c o m m u nit y d e v el o p m e nt bl o c ks) of t h e I n di a n p art of G a n g e s-Br a h m a p utr aM e g h n a D elt a (I n di a n B e n g al D elt a or I B O) a p pl yi n g pri n ci p al c o m p o n e nt a n al ysis (P C A). T h e r es ults s h o w t h at B as a nti is t h e m o st v ul n er abl e s u b-di stri ct usi n g t h e A R 4 a p pr o a c h, w h er e a s G os a b a is f o u n d t o b e t h e hi g hl y e x p o s e d t o ris k usi n g t h e A R 5 a ppr o a c h. B ot h s u b-di stri ct s ar e s p ati all y c o nti g u o u s a n d wit h si mil ar g e o gr a p hi c c h ar a ct eri sti c s w hi c h r efl e ct s t h e v ali dit y of t h e I P C C fr a m e w or ks of a s s e s s m e nt Pri n ci p al c o m p o n e nt a n al y si s

Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta, Bangladesh and India: A Transnational Mega-Delta

Deltas in the Anthropocene, 2019

The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Delta at the north of the Bay of Bengal is administrated by b... more The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Delta at the north of the Bay of Bengal is administrated by both India and Bangladesh. It is characterised by a number of livelihood opportunities resulting from high population density, as well as a number of biophysical and socioeconomic challenges (flooding, erosion, cyclones, salinisation, water logging, etc.) which are increasing alongside the changing climate and anthropogenic developments.