Working Paper by Emanuele Ferrari
Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, 2014
ABSTRACT The objective of this paper is to develop a coherent approach to describe the agri-food ... more ABSTRACT The objective of this paper is to develop a coherent approach to describe the agri-food and other bio-based accounts in the European Union. The paper presents a case study of Spain based on a Social Accounting Matrix with a highly disaggregated agricultural account for the year 2000. The analysis of multipliers allows identifying backward and forward linkages, key sectors, and employment multipliers of the Spanish agri-food and other bio-based accounts. This analysis helps us to better understand the extended agri-food account's economic linkages. No primary agricultural account emerges as key for the Spanish economy, while the production of (renewable) energy appears the only key sector related to agri-food and other bio-based accounts. Livestock and related bio-based products present the highest backward linkages, that is, they have significant diffusion effects of activity to the whole economy.
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Papers by Emanuele Ferrari
Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2016
In the summer of 2014 Russia imposed a ban on most agri-food products from countries enforcing Uk... more In the summer of 2014 Russia imposed a ban on most agri-food products from countries enforcing Ukraine-related sanctions against Russia. We use a specific factors computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the short-run impact of this retaliatory policy. The baseline is carefully designed to isolate the impacts of the ban on the European Union (EU), Russia itself and a selection of key trade partners. The modelling of the ban follows a novel approach, where it is treated as a loss of established trade preferences via reductions in consumer utility in the Armington import function. Not surprisingly, the results indicate that Russia bears the highest income loss (about €3.4 billion) while the EU recovers part of its lost trade through expansion of exports to other markets. An ex-post comparison between simulation results and observed trade data reveals the model predictions to be broadly accurate, thereby validating the robustness of the modelling approach.
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This work analyzes the medium term effects of the recent commodity price spike in a typical Low-I... more This work analyzes the medium term effects of the recent commodity price spike in a typical Low-Income-Food-Deficit country, Malawi, as well as a set of possible policy responses. Simulations were performed with a single-country static Computable General Equilibrium model, based on the 2004 Malawi Social Accounting Matrix provided by IFPRI, modified with data from the 2004 household budget survey. Results indicate that the increase in agricultural domestic prices was mainly driven by the raise in the cost of imported oil and chemical products. Reductions in tariff and domestic taxes, as well as subsidies on chemicals inputs, appear capable of counteracting the terms of trade shocks to some extent. However, tackling structural constraints, such as those affecting the size of agricultural marketing margins, would produce wider benefits, and improve the resilience of the economy to external shocks.
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This report provides scientific evidences supporting the new Agriculture Sector Growth and Transf... more This report provides scientific evidences supporting the new Agriculture Sector Growth and Transformation Strategy in Kenya. A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model specifically modified for the context of Kenya is used to address the impacts of six policy changes. For the purpose of the study, a desegregated version of a 2014 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) has been developed for Kenya. Multi-sectoral analytical tools are used to describe the Kenyan economy and inform about which agri-food value chains have the greatest impact in terms of output, employment and value added. Then, results of simulated policy changes are presented in this report, considering that a more careful analysis at regional and household type levels is required in order to draw robust policy recommendations.
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The Turkana region of Kenya is one of the poorest areas of the country. In September 2013 the ide... more The Turkana region of Kenya is one of the poorest areas of the country. In September 2013 the identification of two huge aquifers in the Turkana region had been announced. This study, through a single-country comparative static CGE model (STAGE), analyses the economic effects of the new discoveries on Kenya. Preliminary results indicate that increases in the availabilities of potable and irrigation water individually have relatively muted effects on agricultural production.
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This study provides quantitative assessments for the impacts of crop yields enhancement associate... more This study provides quantitative assessments for the impacts of crop yields enhancement associated with changes in water quality and soil fertility. It employs a single country CGE (STAGE) model calibrated to an extended version of a recently constructed SAM for Egypt 2008/09. The main contribution of this study is incorporating satellite accounts for water quality indicators into the SAM/CGE framework. The SAM segments the agricultural accounts by season and by irrigation scheme; Nile waterand groundwater-dependent as well as rain-fed agricultural activities. The simulations report strong positive economy-wide impacts, which imply that the planned investments in water quality improvements are worthwhile even with very low generated crop yields. Furthermore, the results show that, without increasing irrigation water requirements, Egypt can achieve outstanding expansions in rice output and exports. This highlights the importance of by investing in improving irrigation water quality f...
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This report presents potential effects of twelve free trade agreements (FTAs) under the current E... more This report presents potential effects of twelve free trade agreements (FTAs) under the current EU FTA agenda. It sheds some light on relatively balanced cumulated impacts in terms of trade, production and price for the EU agricultural sector as a whole, while quantifying also the market development for specific agricultural sectors. Different from a forecast exercise, it compares a conservative and an ambitious FTA scenario with a business as usual (reference) scenario.
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Croatia joined the European Union (EU) on July 1st, 2013. This paper assesses the likely effects ... more Croatia joined the European Union (EU) on July 1st, 2013. This paper assesses the likely effects of this accession on the agricultural and food sectors, and analyses the impact on the EU, Croatia and their main trading partners. It considers both the harmonization of Croatia's trade instruments with those applied in the EU, and the adoption of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The analysis is carried out using MAGNET, a global recursive dynamic CGE model. Results show that Croatia slightly benefits from its accession to the EU with an increase in GDP, whereas the impact on the EU-27's GDP is insignificant. Total exports of Croatian agricultural products increase by 7.4% and those of food products decrease by 2%. Croatia will face some changes in its production structure. At constant prices, agricultural production benefits (increasing by 1.1%), whereas food production contracts (decreasing by 5.5%). This result sheds some light on competitiveness limitations of the Croat...
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New Medit, 2021
Nile water availability is one of the major constraints for agricultural development in Egypt. Th... more Nile water availability is one of the major constraints for agricultural development in Egypt. This study conducts a mixed multiplier analysis, under water and land constraints, to identify the seasonal agricultural activities with high output and income multipliers. It uses a 2008/09 SAM for Egypt with detailed representation for Nile-related production factors employed by agricultural activities across irrigation seasons. The results demonstrate the significance of addressing Nile water constraints not only for agriculture, but also for the overall economy. Policies that enhance water productivity, particularly in winter season, generate outstanding increases in output, income, and employment through sizable multiplier effects.
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The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is moving away from coupled payments towards an increasing e... more The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is moving away from coupled payments towards an increasing emphasis on decoupled payments. However current CGE models to study effects of decoupled payments remain limited. This paper introduces the application of a CGE model framework for a comparative analysis of possible effects caused by coupled and decoupled support on agricultural and food sectors in an economy. The CGE model used is the STAGE_AGR which is an extension of the STAGE model containing equations that permit modellers to introduce different system of decoupled payment representation. We have taken as empirical example the case of Ireland for modelling agricultural payments either as fully or partially decoupled.
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Exposure to contaminated food and water-borne diseases are common in Egypt. Deteriorating water q... more Exposure to contaminated food and water-borne diseases are common in Egypt. Deteriorating water quality has been an obstacle to the development of agricultural sector, where “[c]ontamination rates have reached unacceptable levels in some agricultural areas and have had negative effects on the ability of these areas to produce safe food acceptable to local inhabitants and suitable to export”, (MALR, 2009, p. 45). The Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation (MWRI) estimates annual cost of using low quality water to be 1.8% of GDP (MWRI, 2005a). The study calibrates the single-country Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) STatic Applied General Equilibrium (STAGE 2) model to an extended and updated version of a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Egypt 2012/13. The SAM has detailed accounts for the Egyptian agricultural and irrigation systems. Water quality indicators are incorporated using satellite accounts, allowing for modelling various agronomic features; e.g. water/land salinity...
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Kenya, such as other African countries, is particularly concerned about the achievement of the Su... more Kenya, such as other African countries, is particularly concerned about the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goal #2 (SDG #2: zero hunger), and its associated consequences for the society. Empirical evidence about food security and nutrition in Kenya accounts for deficiencies in food access, food sufficiency and food quality at the household level. These deficiencies are among others the causes of all forms of malnutrition (stunting, wasting and overweight), which can lead to cognitive impairment, limited immunity to diseases, low educational performance, increased risk of chronic disease and even mortality cases of children in this country. To solve the food security and nutrition problems in Kenya is a challenging issue because of the different dimensions to be tackled (economic, environmental, educational, health and sanitation) and also because of the heterogeneity that characterizes households (income and food expenditure, education level of households’ head, region...
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Working Paper by Emanuele Ferrari
Papers by Emanuele Ferrari