Papers by Christina Collins
Carrying capacity, population pressure, and agricultural productivity are of central importance t... more Carrying capacity, population pressure, and agricultural productivity are of central importance to understanding key innovations in human social and cultural evolution. In this paper we outline how crop yield models can be combined with the historical and archaeological information about past societies compiled by Seshat: Global History Database to infer how agricultural productivity and potential have changed over time in different parts of the world. To aid comparative research we focus on developing a method for calculating the carrying capacity of a particular region based on a number of simplifying assumptions. Here we present two case studies demonstrating the calculation of ancient crop yields and carrying capacity for the regions of Latium (Italy) and Oaxaca (Mexico); regions selected to illustrate a number of different features of past agricultural systems, as well as different staple crops. We outline the strengths and weaknesses of this approach and discuss ways in which ...
American Sociological Review, 2018
Proponents of the Axial Age contend that parallel cultural developments between 800 and 200 BCE i... more Proponents of the Axial Age contend that parallel cultural developments between 800 and 200 BCE in what is today China, Greece, India, Iran, and Israel-Palestine constitute the global historical turning point toward modernity. The Axial Age concept is well-known and influential, but deficiencies in the historical evidence and sociological analysis available have thwarted efforts to evaluate the concept’s major global contentions. As a result, the Axial Age concept remains controversial. Seshat: Global History Databank provides new tools for examining this topic in social formations across Afro-Eurasia during the first two millennia BCE and first millennium CE, allowing scholars to empirically evaluate the varied and contrasting claims researchers have put forward. Results undercut the notion of a specific “age” of axiality limited to a specific geo-temporal localization. Critical traits offered as evidence of an axial transformation by proponents of the Axial Age concept appeared ac...
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Jun 14, 2018
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Jan 21, 2017
Do human societies from around the world exhibit similarities in the way that they are structured... more Do human societies from around the world exhibit similarities in the way that they are structured, and show commonalities in the ways that they have evolved? These are long-standing questions that have proven difficult to answer. To test between competing hypotheses, we constructed a massive repository of historical and archaeological information known as "Seshat: Global History Databank." We systematically coded data on 414 societies from 30 regions around the world spanning the last 10,000 years. We were able to capture information on 51 variables reflecting nine characteristics of human societies, such as social scale, economy, features of governance, and information systems. Our analyses revealed that these different characteristics show strong relationships with each other and that a single principal component captures around three-quarters of the observed variation. Furthermore, we found that different characteristics of social complexity are highly predictable acros...
Journal of Archaeological Science, 2015
Radiocarbon date frequency distributions and archaeological site counts are two popular proxies u... more Radiocarbon date frequency distributions and archaeological site counts are two popular proxies used to investigate prehistoric demography, following the assumption that variations in these data reflect fluctuations in the relative size and distribution of past populations. However, the two approaches are rarely applied to the same data-set and their applicability is heavily conditioned by the archaeological record in question, particularly research histories, agendas, and funding availability. In this paper we use both types of data to examine the population history of the Upper Palaeolithic hunteregatherers (~40 000e12 000 cal BP) of Southwestern France, comparing the demographic signatures generated. Both proxies produce similar signatures across the Upper Palaeolithic sequence of the region, strengthening the interpretation of relative demographic changes as the cause of the pattern. In particular, a marked population decline is seen in both datasets during the Late Gravettian (~28 000 cal BP), as well as a population increase in the Late Solutrean (~25 000 cal BP) supporting the notion that the region acted as a population refugium during the Last Glacial Maximum. Where the two proxies diverge in the demographic signatures they produce, the radiocarbon date distribution shows peaks compared to troughs in site counts; the opposite pattern expected given taphonomic issues surrounding cultural carbon. Despite differences in chronological resolution and sampling bias, our data suggest that the two proxies can be considered broadly equivalent; a finding which warrants the investigation of prehistoric demography in regions where either extensive survey data or radiometric dating programmes are unavailable. While some preliminary observations are made, the impact of changing mobility on diachronic patterns seen in both proxies remains, however, difficult to assess.
Journal of Archaeological Science, 2018
The role of the environment in shaping agricultural origins is still not fully understood, despit... more The role of the environment in shaping agricultural origins is still not fully understood, despite a century of debate on this topic. Comparison of the expected prevalence of a resource in the landscape with actual archaeological presence of the same resource can provide a metric for assessing resource choice in prehistory. However, the palaeoenvironmental data that would allow resource choice to be evaluated in this way are rarely available. Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) techniques allow independent
The Holocene
This article reports the results of a collaborative effort to estimate agricultural productivitie... more This article reports the results of a collaborative effort to estimate agricultural productivities in past societies using Seshat: Global History Databank. We focus on 30 Natural Geographic Areas (NGAs) distributed over 10 major world regions (Europe, Africa, Southwest Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia, East Asia, Central Eurasia, North America, South America, and Oceania). The conceptual framework that we use to obtain these estimates combines the influences of the production technologies (and how they change with time), climate change, and effects of artificial selection into a Relative Yield Coefficient, indicating how agricultural productivity changed over time in each NGA between the Neolithic and the 20th century. We then use estimates of historical yield in each NGA to translate the Relative Yield Coefficient into an Estimated Yield (tonnes per hectare per year) trajectory. We tested the proposed methodology in two ways. For eight NGAs, in which we had more than one historical...
This article reports the results of a collaborative research project that aims to estimate agricu... more This article reports the results of a collaborative research project that aims to estimate agricultural productivities of the past societies in the Seshat World Sample-30. We focus on 30 Natural Geographic Areas (NGAs) distributed over 10 major world regions (Europe, Africa, Southwest Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia, East Asia, Central Eurasia, North America, South America, and Oceania). The conceptual framework that we use to obtain these estimates combines the influences of the production technologies (and how they change with time), climate change, and effects of artificial selection into a Relative Yield Coefficient, indicating how agricultural productivity changed over time in each NGA between the Neolithic and Industrial Revolutions. We then use estimates of historical yield in an NGA to translate the Relative Yield Coefficient into an Estimated Yield (tons per hectare per year) trajectory. We tested the proposed methodology in two ways. For eight NGAs, in which we had more t...
Proponents of the Axial Age contend that parallel cultural developments between 800 and 200 BCE i... more Proponents of the Axial Age contend that parallel cultural developments between 800 and 200 BCE in what is today China, Greece, India, Iran, and Israel-Palestine constitute the global historical turning point toward modernity. The Axial Age concept is well-known and influential, but deficiencies in the historical evidence and sociological analysis available have thwarted efforts to evaluate the concept’s major global contentions. As a result, the Axial Age concept remains controversial. Seshat: Global History Databank provides new tools for examining this topic in social formations across Afro-Eurasia during the first two millennia BCE and first millennium CE, allowing scholars to empirically evaluate the varied and contrasting claims researchers have put forward. Results undercut the notion of a specific “age” of axiality limited to a specific geo-temporal localization. Critical traits offered as evidence of an axial transformation by proponents of the Axial Age concept appeared ac...
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2017
Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Early Edition, 21 December 2017 ht... more Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Early Edition, 21 December 2017 http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/12/20/1708800115.abstract This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND). Abstract: Do human societies from around the world exhibit similarities in the way that they are structured, and show commonalities in the ways that they have evolved? These are long-standing questions that have proven difficult to answer. To test between competing hypotheses, we constructed a massive repository of historical and archaeological information known as " Seshat: Global History Databank. " We systematically coded data on 414 societies from 30 regions around the world spanning the last 10,000 years. We were able to capture information on 51 variables reflecting nine characteristics of human societies, such as social scale, economy, features of gover-nance, and information syste...
The role of the environment in shaping agricultural origins is still not fully understood, despit... more The role of the environment in shaping agricultural origins is still not fully understood, despite a century of debate on this topic. Comparison of the expected prevalence of a resource in the landscape with actual archaeological presence of the same resource can provide a metric for assessing resource choice in prehistory. However, the palaeoenvironmental data that would allow resource choice to be evaluated in this way are rarely available. Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) techniques allow independent palaeoenvironmental datasets to be computed, which when compared to actual species' presence at sites as attested by archaeological datasets, can provide data on resource choice. Following recent calls for SDM to be applied more widely in archaeological contexts, we outline a simple method for predicting the presence of plant species in prehistory using modern analogues and palaeoclimatic datasets. These modelled distributions provide an independent dataset for comparison with archaeological data, thus providing a window into human resource choice in prehistory. We outline the method with specific reference to the transition from foraging to farming in the Neolithic of Central Anatolia, but the method could be applied to any period or region. We have used exclusively open source data and provided all code in our online supplementary materials, so that our method can be utilized by researchers interested in human resource choice in any region of the world and any period.
The role of the environment in shaping agricultural origins is still not fully understood, despit... more The role of the environment in shaping agricultural origins is still not fully understood, despite a century of debate on this topic. Comparison of the expected prevalence of a resource in the landscape with actual archaeological presence of the same resource can provide a metric for assessing resource choice in prehistory. However, the palaeoenvironmental data that would allow resource choice to be evaluated in this way are rarely available. Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) techniques allow independent palaeoenvironmental datasets to be computed, which when compared to actual species' presence at sites as attested by archaeological datasets, can provide data on resource choice. Following recent calls for SDM to be applied more widely in archaeological contexts, we outline a simple method for predicting the presence of plant species in prehistory using modern analogues and palaeoclimatic datasets. These modelled distributions provide an independent dataset for comparison with archaeological data, thus providing a window into human resource choice in prehistory. We outline the method with specific reference to the transition from foraging to farming in the Neolithic of Central Anatolia, but the method could be applied to any period or region. We have used exclusively open source data and provided all code in our online supplementary materials, so that our method can be utilized by researchers interested in human resource choice in any region of the world and any period.
Radiocarbon date frequency distributions and archaeological site counts are two popular proxies u... more Radiocarbon date frequency distributions and archaeological site counts are two popular proxies used to investigate prehistoric demography, following the assumption that variations in these data reflect fluctuations in the relative size and distribution of past populations. However, the two approaches are rarely applied to the same data-set and their applicability is heavily conditioned by the archaeological record in question, particularly research histories, agendas, and funding availability. In this paper we use both types of data to examine the population history of the Upper Palaeolithic hunter–gatherers (∼40 000–12 000 cal BP) of Southwestern France, comparing the demographic signatures generated.
Both proxies produce similar signatures across the Upper Palaeolithic sequence of the region, strengthening the interpretation of relative demographic changes as the cause of the pattern. In particular, a marked population decline is seen in both datasets during the Late Gravettian (∼28 000 cal BP), as well as a population increase in the Late Solutrean (∼25 000 cal BP) supporting the notion that the region acted as a population refugium during the Last Glacial Maximum. Where the two proxies diverge in the demographic signatures they produce, the radiocarbon date distribution shows peaks compared to troughs in site counts; the opposite pattern expected given taphonomic issues surrounding cultural carbon. Despite differences in chronological resolution and sampling bias, our data suggest that the two proxies can be considered broadly equivalent; a finding which warrants the investigation of prehistoric demography in regions where either extensive survey data or radiometric dating programmes are unavailable. While some preliminary observations are made, the impact of changing mobility on diachronic patterns seen in both proxies remains, however, difficult to assess.
Books by Christina Collins
Teaching Documents by Christina Collins
Book Reviews by Christina Collins
Review of Dominic Johnson’s God is Watching You
Uploads
Papers by Christina Collins
Both proxies produce similar signatures across the Upper Palaeolithic sequence of the region, strengthening the interpretation of relative demographic changes as the cause of the pattern. In particular, a marked population decline is seen in both datasets during the Late Gravettian (∼28 000 cal BP), as well as a population increase in the Late Solutrean (∼25 000 cal BP) supporting the notion that the region acted as a population refugium during the Last Glacial Maximum. Where the two proxies diverge in the demographic signatures they produce, the radiocarbon date distribution shows peaks compared to troughs in site counts; the opposite pattern expected given taphonomic issues surrounding cultural carbon. Despite differences in chronological resolution and sampling bias, our data suggest that the two proxies can be considered broadly equivalent; a finding which warrants the investigation of prehistoric demography in regions where either extensive survey data or radiometric dating programmes are unavailable. While some preliminary observations are made, the impact of changing mobility on diachronic patterns seen in both proxies remains, however, difficult to assess.
Books by Christina Collins
Teaching Documents by Christina Collins
Book Reviews by Christina Collins
Both proxies produce similar signatures across the Upper Palaeolithic sequence of the region, strengthening the interpretation of relative demographic changes as the cause of the pattern. In particular, a marked population decline is seen in both datasets during the Late Gravettian (∼28 000 cal BP), as well as a population increase in the Late Solutrean (∼25 000 cal BP) supporting the notion that the region acted as a population refugium during the Last Glacial Maximum. Where the two proxies diverge in the demographic signatures they produce, the radiocarbon date distribution shows peaks compared to troughs in site counts; the opposite pattern expected given taphonomic issues surrounding cultural carbon. Despite differences in chronological resolution and sampling bias, our data suggest that the two proxies can be considered broadly equivalent; a finding which warrants the investigation of prehistoric demography in regions where either extensive survey data or radiometric dating programmes are unavailable. While some preliminary observations are made, the impact of changing mobility on diachronic patterns seen in both proxies remains, however, difficult to assess.