Showing posts with label DPP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label DPP. Show all posts

Monday, September 11, 2017

William Lai sworn in

A tiny shrine in Tainan.

Straits Times reports on the dawn of a "pragmatic" era in Taiwan with the William Lai cabinet:
At the ceremony, the 57-year-old Mr Lai said his main task is to grow the economy, rather than to build political momentum before the island's next election, the South China Morning Post in Hong Kong reported.

He also said his main responsibility is to build Taiwan, "expand the economy and look after the people", adding that his Cabinet would press on with reforms in areas ranging from the energy industry to labour, pensions and tax, while "eliminating obstacles for investment", Reuters reported.
As a keen observer pointed out in a Facebook discussion, growing the economy is necessary to build momentum before the election. Lai's appointment is squarely aimed at the election.

Note what Lai did not discuss: wages, living standards, housing. Lai is an oily center-right construction-industrial state machine politician emitting reassuring signals to that System, not a "strongman" as Lawrence Chung said in SCMP the other day. IMHO we will not see any of the necessary changes to the system, just "reforms" that will result in further concentrations of wealth. He might actually hurt DPP chances in the 2018 election with such "reforms".

(aside: "strongman" isn't in Chung's piece by accident. It's a KMT propaganda attack on him from 2015.)

Lai's elevation to the premiership is a signal that he has arrived and is being groomed as a possible presidential candidate. As I wrote the other day...
.....This gives Lai a chance to get national name recognition and give him central government experience. It also gives him a chance to show his face in the north.

Note that this gets him out of Tainan in a way that prevents it from looking like he is ignoring Tainan to run for the New Taipei City mayorship -- it would be a bit awkward if he were campaigning in Yungho or Chungho while still technically the mayor of Tainan. It seems obvious to me that eventually Lai will be begged to run, in fine Taiwan style, for New Taipei City mayor in the 2018 election. And in fine Taiwan style, he will reluctantly accept.
I will be very surprised if Lai is still premier once the 2018 elections are over with. I still expect him to run for New Taipei City mayor. Although some publications are arguing that Lai will challenge Tsai for the 2020 presidential nomination, I think that if he was really going to do that, she would not have made him premier -- why raise a rival up? Rather, this is a signal that she is confident he won't challenge her in 2020. This means, though, he will be presidential in 2024 assuming all goes well. He will be ~65 then, the right age for a Taiwan president.

According to news reports the new cabinet is pretty much the same as the old. I expect several posts to change over the next few months as ministers leave for whatever reason: personal, to run for office, etc.

This is not only seasoning for Lai, giving him central government experience. It is also a test of Lai as a DPP party politician. Lai is a New Tide faction member. Recall that so far, the DPP Presidential candidate has also been the party chair. If Lai can successfully balance the factions and regional tensions in his handling of central government appointments, he will go far in demonstrating that he is viable as a party Chair (and Presidential candidate). If the new administration turns out to be New Tide dominated, that will hurt his support within the party for the presidency in 2024.

Lai is a signal of a good thing: he is another of the emerging new generation of leaders in the DPP, emerging leaders that the KMT simply doesn't have. Cheng Wen-Tsan in Taoyuan is also looking like a solid prospect for the future. Moreover, with the lock on Tainan and Kaohsiung, the DPP has places to smoothly cultivate new leaders. The KMT has only Nantou and Miaoli, two small, mountainous, and broke counties. Note that I have not mentioned Lin Chia-lung in Taichung. All I have to say about him is *sigh*

Lai is also a signal of another good thing: the internalization of democracy and democratic politics as part of the new Taiwan identity. The island was spared a terrible political crisis in figuring out what the Taiwan identity means with the emergence of the second generation pro-Taiwan identity (as opposed to first generation in which being pro-independence meant being anti-KMT) as a global event across the under-40 generation in Taiwan. This saved the DPP from the crisis of defining what Taiwan means: the young did it for them. In an alternate universe, the appointment of Lai might have triggered a round of debilitating debates over what Lai meant for the new identity. The lack of any debate is a positive sign.

Lai also signals that the generational shift in the DPP is now finished: the activist generation has handed the party off to the politicians. The revolution is complete, and it has not eaten too many of its children. You can tell that transition is now over because nobody discussed the Lai appointment in that context. Meanwhile the KMT has not undergone a parallel transition from mainlander elite control to Taiwanization and with the appointment of Wu Den-yih as Chairman, is in fact actively resisting it...

Much of this is covered in the ICRT show on Friday with Keith Menconi, Gavin Phipps as host, and myself. The podcast is great, we had a lot of lighthearted fun. Keith Menconi is wonderful and I will miss him very much. Hope everything goes well for you in the US, Keith!

On a personal note, a month after surgery I finally got on the bike for a ride in the hills. Feels good. More pictures inbound!
________________
Daily Links:
_______________________
Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Monday, September 04, 2017

HUGE: Lai from Tainan to the EY

A pink triceratops in front of a mall in Taichung, with massive books displaying other cute pink things. Yes, Taiwan's ability to generate kitsch exceeds all possibility of imagination. 

The news broke this morning that Lai Chin-de (William Lai), the Mayor of Tainan, is getting a promotion out of his city (Chinese, Chinese, English) and into the Executive Yuan. Premier Lin Chuan has resigned and Lai is taking over his position. The Sec-General and the Vice Premier are also stepping down tomorrow, Tuesday.

As many of us have expected, DPP President Tsai Ing-wen is moving out the technocrats and bringing in the politicians who can get things done ahead of the 2018 midterm elections. This gives Lai a chance to get national name recognition and give him central government experience. It also gives him a chance to show his face in the north.

Note that this gets him out of Tainan in a way that prevents it from looking like he is ignoring Tainan to run for the New Taipei City mayorship -- it would be a bit awkward if he were campaigning in Yungho or Chungho while still technically the mayor of Tainan. It seems obvious to me that eventually Lai will be begged to run,  in fine Taiwan style, for New Taipei City mayor in the 2018 election. And in fine Taiwan style, he will reluctantly accept.

If Lai is a success as premier, it will enhance his prospects for succeeding Tsai in 2024. Note that even if he is not a success, it may not affect his career at all. Quick, name the last five premiers.

Reuters celebrated Lai's replacement of Lin Chuan with another hit piece on Tsai -- Lin Chuan's resignation and Lai's ascension was about shoring up Tsai's "fading popularity". With quotes only from pan-Blue supporters, of course, and a cherry-picked poll to boot. I have nothing but contempt for that media organization.

UPDATE: @aaronwytze adds: DPP factions are probably furious about this. Lai could stack New Tide appointees in EY
_______________
Daily Links:
_______________________
Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Sunday, April 23, 2017

What Cross Strait Institutional Frameworks?


Jerome Cohen and Chen Yu-jie are online at ChinaFile with a widely circulated piece on the implications of the Lee Ming-che detention in China for cross-strait relations....
Although it would be wise as well as humane for Beijing to release Lee Ming-che now, his case may have just begun. Yet its lessons are already worth considering. It vividly illustrates Beijing’s continuing determination to suspend the operation of important cross-strait agreements in the current political circumstances. It also exposes not only how little respect the Chinese Government has for even the minimal human rights protections enshrined in the Judicial Assistance Agreement but also the need to provide effective means for their enforcement. Beijing has met its agenda for the short term, which is to signal non-cooperation with Tsai Ing-wen’s government. The long-term consequences of destroying the reliability and legitimacy of cross-strait institutions, however, are not in its interest. If cross-strait agreements can be brushed aside by Beijing when considered politically inconvenient, they will no longer be trusted in Taiwan. What will then be left in Beijing’s toolkit for cross-strait cooperation and stability?
This analysis is legalistic, imagining that cross-strait "stability" resides in agreements. The truth is that "cross strait institutions" are a fantasy of this type of analysis.

Whatever your theory of why Lee was abducted, this is hardly the first time that China has failed to honor cross-strait understandings, frameworks, and agreements. That is in fact China's normal practice. Anyone remember the April deportations last year, of scam suspects from Kenya to Malaysia? Taipei Times:
Officers immediately contacted their Malaysian counterparts and were told that all documents and evidence were in the hands of Chinese authorities, Tuan said, adding that when they contacted Chinese authorities, the Chinese Ministry of Public Security turned down the request.

Tuan said that according to an agreement reached by Taiwan and China in 2011, when Taiwanese or Chinese are deported for crimes committed in a third country, any evidence is to be sent with the suspects on deportation.
....but no evidence was sent. Remember when China simply threw a new air route over the Taiwan Strait even though negotiations on the issue hadn't been concluded?

It would be redundant to list the piles of agreements with many nations that Beijing has reneged on....

This tactic of honoring agreements when it feels like it is normal for Beijing. There is nothing to see here, move along folks. Arbitrary withholding or granting of privileges is one of the ways an authoritarian state retains its grip on the flow of events, be they individual behaviors in its own society, or the global political sphere. In this case not only does Beijing get to demonstrate who holds the whip hand, but it also signals that Taiwan activists take risks when they cross into China (and Hong Kong). That will help chill activist links.
No matter what the outcome, it has seriously worsened cross-strait relations and China’s chances for attaining “soft power.”
There was never any chance of "attaining 'soft power'". This whole reading of events is based on a framework of normal establishment politics that simply does not exist in Beijing.
_______________________
Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Wednesday, April 12, 2017

Please, time for a new cabinet

I love this spot.

Looking at the past few months, sometimes it feels like the Tsai Administration made a list of its major constituencies shortly after the election in order to make sure it offended them all.

The latest gaffe, minor but annoying, involved the head of the EPA getting busted eating shark fin soup. Totally needless. All the DPP cabinet problems seem to share that basic trait of needlessness.

Last time it was Minister of Justice Chiu Tai-san who took a swipe at gay marriage. "Has there ever been a cultural institution or social phenomenon for same sex marriage? Without a doubt there has not."

Chiu's remarks were both ignorant and ill considered. When westerners first began arriving in China the prevalence, deep cultural roots, and rich cultural traditions of gay sex were widely remarked on by western observers, and not kindly. Gay marriage was present in many different ways -- according to researcher Bret Hinsch, in Fujian there was a tradition of male gay marriage, while in Guangdong, there was a lesbian marriage tradition under which the two women could adopt a child and leave their property to it.

It goes without saying that Fujian and Guangdong were areas of origin for many Han settlers in Taiwan.

Chiu's remarks also echoed the anti-gay rhetoric of KMT one-party rule, under which gayness was an unChinese offense against public morals, which the KMT attempted to portray as based on a heterosexual, Confucian, family-centered order. No DPP politician should ever be summoning the ghosts of KMT authoritarianism.

Someone in the Administration needs to be keeping people in line: when Chiu was asked about gay marriage, irrespective of his own position, he should have made polite noises. He's an experienced politician and should have known better. Even Tsai's devoutly Catholic Vice President Chen Jien-jen knew enough to do that when confronted with the question. Young voters hungry for change helped propel Tsai into power, and they are strongly supportive of gay marriage.

Another case in point: in recent elections, the nation's indigenous peoples have been slowly shifting away from their traditional support of the KMT. Tsai's landmark apology to the aborigines seemed like a step in the right direction, but the follow through has been poor.

Last August, after meeting with Truku people about the Asia Cement plant on Truku land in Hualien, President Tsai directed that the laws calling for aboriginal consent to development on aboriginal lands be enforced by the Council of Indigenous peoples. This would make it difficult for the plant to obtain an extension of its mining lease, leading to its likely closure.

Despite direct orders from the top, two ministers in the Ministry of Economic Affairs did an end run around the law and granted the plant an extension to 2037 this week. The move, of apparent dubious legality, is also politically inept. It should not be tolerated by the Tsai Administration.

The Administration needs to remove the heads of a few chickens to ensure that future monkeys behave. It also needs to start at the top.

In May the current Cabinet will have been in office a year. It will have addressed at least some of the messes left behind by the Ma Administration, but on the whole it has been lackluster. The current cabinet, with its service to powerful firms and distance from the people, is far too reminiscent of the Ma cabinets. Premier Lin Chuan needs replaced by someone who is more openly committed to the DPP and its pro-Taiwan views. Current Kaohsiung mayor Chen Chu, whose name is often mooted, would be perfect. The remainder of the cabinet should follow Lin Chuan into oblivion.

President Tsai will never be more powerful than she is now. Aside from the restructuring of Taipower, what are the major accomplishments the Tsai Administration can show its respective constituencies? Gay marriage should have been decisively dealt with months ago, yet here we are still talking about it. The termination of Asia Cement's corporate colonization of the Truku people would have been a concrete example to show the nation's aboriginal peoples that the Administration is making meaningful progress on aboriginal rights. As of this writing aboriginal protesters are occupying Ketagalen Blvd over land issues.

The next election is eighteen months away, and a politically sensible and responsive cabinet is a must. Recall that the crushing DPP victory in 2016 was possible only because many KMT voters stayed home and younger voters came out for the DPP. At present, there is nothing to indicate that all those KMT voters will remain in their homes, especially if the Party leadership can manage to put a politician with some basic political sense at the helm. The KMT's long-term prospects may be dim, but there is no reason that a rebound isn't possible in the short term. And voters like to give ruling parties a warning.

A dramatic gesture like tossing out the cabinet would be a good start on the 2018 elections. Sacking the two offending ministers from the Ministry of Economic Affairs would make a nice apology to the Truku people, but it needs to be followed up by a termination of the lease and an end to its mining operations.

Out with the old, please. Because the DPP is going to suffer if the current cabinet is still office for the 2018 elections, even if the export conomy, riding six straight months of growth, maintains. Young people are immensely dissatisfied with their salaries and living conditions, as recent polls show. They will likely send the DPP a message.

It won't be a message of pleased happiness.
_________________
Daily Links:

  • On Facebook: It appears that a ship loaded with nuke waste showed up at Lanyu's Longmen Port to add to the pile on Orchid Island, apparently without local knowledge. It left without unloading after being confronted.
  • Tsai: Taiwan trying to get kidnapped activist home from China. The activist's wife said that the broker she used to talk to Chinese authorities told her the detention was by mistake. Cole has said it is local authorities acting without orders from Beijing.
  • The National Development Council approves plan to extend the railway to Hengchun in Pingtung, near Kenting. That's excellent news, been waiting for this for years. It will be interesting to see how they get it down that narrow coastal shelf. 
  • Tone-deaf, the KMT calls for prosecutors to appeal the not-guilty verdicts given the Sunflowers for the 2014 occupation of the legislature. Young people will surely be attracted to join the KMT now...
  • The KMT's National Women's League offers to donate US$500 million in assets to the Health Ministry. That's US dollars..... obviously it paid to be KMT.
  • Uber is returning.
  • Taiwan health ministry to set up office to combat low fertility. I've got an idea: the world is full of people -- import some. It's called immigration. 
  • Latest Global Taiwan Brief

_______________________
Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Saturday, March 25, 2017

Taiwan News Latest: Taiwan, the once and future Austronesian Ocean State

Boats on Lanyu

I was inspired by the discovery of what might be the skeletons of African slaves in the Spanish cemetery in Keelung. Relecting on Taiwan's diverse ethnic roots, I noted in my latest Taiwan News piece:
I often reflect on these facts when I read some reporter describing the people of Taiwan as “ethnic Chinese” or when people refer to themselves as having "Taiwanese blood." These ideas are vapid political constructs whose intent is overtly nationalistic: to claim a people is “ethnic Chinese” is to veer dangerously close to arguing that Beijing should be annexing them. Or when people write about Taiwan’s “deep historical links to China”, actually less than four centuries old, but ignore Taiwan’s thousands of years of historical links to Austronesian peoples and trade and emigration networks that spanned half the globe, from Madagascar to New Zealand and Hawaii.
These rich historical connections can be used by Tsai and the DPP to posit another kind of rhetoric of identity for Taiwan, one rooted in its Austronesian roots, that can link it to the nations that are the focus of its southbound policy.

Previous Taiwan News commentaries are gathered on this page.
_______________________
Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

The sad case of DPP Justice Minister Chiu Tai-san

Onions. Because Chiu Tai-san makes me cry.

Our DPP Justice Minister revealed himself to be not only a retrograde thinker, but a Han nationalist to boot. Speaking on gay marriage at a hearing that was live streamed, Justice Minister Chiu Tai-san said:
“The Civil Code stipulates that marriage shall be between a man and a woman, and as such it is not unconstitutional. The Constitution guarantees citizens’ right to marry as that between a man and a woman, while marriage between people of the same sex is not covered under the Constitution,” Chiu said.

“For thousands of years in the nation’s history, society has instituted traditions and codes of conduct regarding marriage. Has there ever been a cultural institution or social phenomenon for same-sex marriage?” Chiu said.

“Without a doubt, there has been none,” Chiu said.

He then quoted one section of the Chinese classic I Ching (易經), also known as the Book of Changes, which reads: “With the existence of the earth and the sky, there came all living things. With the existence of the earth and the sky, there came men and women,” which he said illustrates that Chinese marriage traditions have — since ancient times — been based on a union between a man and a woman.
This kind of argument is completely idiotic -- projecting modern institutions into the past in order to legitimate them. Jenna (added: actually her quietly brilliant husband) tracked down this website giving some examples of different kinds of marriages in China over time. Recall that polygamy was common, with not only multiple wives but also concubines. And women marrying a set of brothers was a known marriage form. Any competent anthropologist could give many examples of other forms of marriage not only in China but all over the world.

The issue is exactly the same as in the US, where "conservatives" scream the lie that marriage has always been one man, one woman. Reality is always the opposite of such fantasies. It is not difficult to find the many works that depict the deep roots of homosexuality and same-sex marriage in Chinese culture. Take the introduction to this book, which remarks on the commonality of homosexuality in Chinese culture:
Many times homosexuality acted as an integral part of society, complete with same-sex marriages for both men and women. 
You don't have to know anything about gay marriage in Chinese history to know that if a social conservative is asserting something about marriage and history, he's almost certainly wrong. Indeed, in many Buddhist circles where reincarnation is believed, it is also believed that two souls are fated to marry each other irrespective of sex, which provided religious sanction for homosexual marriage in ancient Chinese society. Of course many regions had their own traditions of gay marriage. Chiu's claims are a perfect melding of idiocy and ignorance.

Why O why can't science and scholarship form the basis of our public discourse and decision-making?

Despite Chiu Tai-san's claim, the ROC Constitution does not mention marriage, as far as I can see. Article 7 guarantees equality before the law, while Article 8 guarantees personal freedom. How you interpret that is up to you. But it seems to me that it is hard to uphold Article 7 yet oppose gay marriage.

Citing the I Ching is unwise, at best. A DPP minister should take the view that Taiwan can form its own traditions, customs, and cultures, and that China should be left behind. Using Chinese historical hokum as the basis for arguments in modern society should never be a DPP practice, it tends to create connections where none are necessary.

Moreover, anti-homosexuality in modern Taiwan has its roots in another discourse -- that of state power and control, the heterosexualization of society, and the faux Confucian morality of the KMT's Party-State. This paper observes:
During the first two decades of Kuomintang (KMT) rule, Taiwan experienced steady economic growth but changes to the political system were not permitted; the corporatist model of KMT rule was omnipresent. Taiwanese society between the 1950s and 1960s could be described as heterosexualized in terms of discourse; “family values” were regarded as deriving directly from a stable Confucian and Chinese tradition and public discourses of same-sex desire were almost non-existent:
...revealing the fundamental truth: that assertions of "family values" are the code language of right-wing nationalist state power and control.

Hence, when Chiu Tai-san marginalized gay marriage (and implicitly, gayness) as "unChinese", he was invoking decades of this rightist, ahistorical, inhuman discourse that helped form the basis of KMT power in Taiwan.

Thanks, Chiu Tai-san. You're a genius.

Imagine if Chiu had taken another view -- that gay marriage was an ancient practice in south China from whence many ancestors of Taiwanese arrived. Imagine if his use of history had been informed, sensitive, and progressive. Imagine if he'd envisioned gay people as human beings like himself....

Total fail on all fronts by Chiu Tai-san.
_______________________
Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Saturday, March 11, 2017

Taiwan News Latest: DPP on Drugs, don't worry, be happy

Net fishing on Lanyu

“They wanted to have a good time, but they were like children playing in the street; they could see one after another of them being killed--run over, maimed, destroyed--but they continued to play anyhow.”

Taiwan's anti-drug regime has a dual nature: it is absolutely brutal, yet has a strong rehabilitative element. I look at it in my latest piece for Taiwan News...
Although it is not often remarked on, side by side with the loud regime of strict punishment to restore society’s moral order by scapegoating an outcast is a quiet regime of rehabilitation, forced rehab in the case of repeat offenders. It is important to note that the DPP Administration did not advocate disturbing any of this. Although DPP politicians have from time to time joined the call to punish drug use more severely, by and large the DPP has avoided the KMT’s harsher approaches.
The "War on Drugs" was announced in 1993 by then-premier Lien Chan. Drugs suck twice over: first they destroy you, then the government steps in and destroys you again. Lien's order destroyed the lives of many people only harming themselves. Fortunately, as I note in the piece above, in 1994 the government also moved to impose a rehabilitation regime. This means that in Taiwan drug users have the twin status of patients and criminals.

According to one of the papers I read in preparation for this, the reason for the KMT administration's decision to make war on victims was simple: the US was also promoting its own costly and destructive War on Drugs, and the KMT wanted to curry favor with the US. It also saw participation in international "anti-drug" efforts as a way to align itself with the international community and raise the ROC's profile, in the KMT's never ending religious quest to become a recognized state.
_______________________
Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Monday, February 06, 2017

Politics round-up

Little lost kitties.


Reverberating into local politics: Taiwan businesses in China are getting out as the China economy continues to slide. This will undercut the KMT argument, constantly made, that Taiwan needs to tie itself economically to China in order to survive. As each year passes, it is more and more clear that the golden age was under the Chen Administration, and the Ma Administration deeply impaired Taiwan's ability to engage China on Taiwan's terms.
"After the Lunar New Year holiday, we will likely see a large-scale shutdown of small to mid-sized businesses in China, including those run by Taiwanese people," said the Association of Taiwan Investment Enterprises on the Mainland (ATIEM), a corporate community made up of Taiwanese businesspeople in China.

The association said a wave of departures started around four years ago, adding that the current wave was different from before — in the past, while Taiwanese businesses would shut down factories in China, many kept their assets in the mainland as they maintained an optimistic outlook on the Chinese economy.

"They used to either keep their mainland savings in banks or invest in real estate, businesses ventures or the stock market. But what is different about the current wave of departures is that not only have the factories and assets left, people have stopped feeling any sort of sentimental attachment to the place altogether," an anonymous committee member of the association told local media.
Those Taiwanese businessmen remaining in China will be either too invested to leave, or true expats unwilling to return to the homeland, slowly becoming ever more out of touch with their homeland. Like all expats they have developed a set of elaborate rationalizations for their living outside of their homeland, which are often mistaken for meaningful political commentary.

Meanwhile the KMT continues to stumble. This week the news came out that the forms for new party membership application hilariously contains only places in China to be filled in as birthplace...
However, the party’s Web site for online membership application does not include most Taiwanese counties and cities as an option for the applicant’s place of birth.

Although it lists 59 locations for applicants to choose as their place of birth, no Taiwanese administrative division is included other than Taipei and Kaohsiung.
They probably bought it from a Chinese company. UPDATE: Nope. It was deliberately designed that way to comply with the Republic of China territorial boundaries.

KMT Chairmanship hopeful Steve Chan observed that the KMT might disappear if its internal splits continue. Report in English.

The big news this week was Tsai's cabinet reshuffle. As a commenter predicted here last year when this disappointing cabinet was picked, Tsai is moving out the technocrats, among whom are KMTers (Taipei Times report quotes observers noting that too many KMTers remain) and replacing them with politicians who can effectively run the ministries and campaign for the DPP. It's February, remember, and campaigning for the 2018 elections, which will be held in Jan Nov of 2018, will begin at the end of the year. I expect more cabinet members to be replaced. Tsai also reportedly plans a new cross-strait policy in time for the elections.

Also hilariously, Hau Long-bin, the KMT heavyweight, criticized the cabinet changes, accusing the DPP of nepotism since the new Minister of Labor is President Tsai's cousin, saying: “Nepotism is not good under any circumstances.”

Hau, readers will recall, is the son of KMT reactionary General and Premier Hau Pei-tsun, and owes his high position entirely to the fact that his father is a powerful KMT figure.

This habit of constantly replacing cabinet ministers is bad for Taiwan. Needs to stop... and Tsai's obliviousness to simple issues, such as appointing a family member to high posts in her administration, as well as appointing few women to positions in her cabinet, also needs to stop.
__________________
Daily Links:
  • Longtan Butokoden: photo and essay from Josh Ellis
  • Taiwan sees record high tourists in 2016. As expected. Excellent news for Taiwan. Nobody will even notice the loss of Chinese tourists, and as word gets around, tourists from more lucrative countries that aren't threatening to murder Taiwanese and take their island will come. And before you tell me something about soft power or people to people contacts or other nonsense, the Chinese group tourists were simply making China even more despised. The individual tourists are far more respectful and likable.
  • Thursday = COLD FRONT
  • Cambodia is rapidly turning into a protectorate of China (along with Laos). The PM this week banned the ROC national flag in deference to Beijing, but asked for Taiwanese investment to continue.
  • Joe Hung, the reactionary KMT commentator, with another round of comical spew in China Post. A good look into what the Deep Blues actually think.
  • NOT FAKE NEWS: Comically, after years of regurgitating Chinese propaganda about Taiwan in reports studded with errors and misunderstandings, BBC is producing a site dedicated to fighting fake news. Hint: look in the mirror, BBC. 
  • INTERNSHIP:  Winkler Partners, law firm in Taipei, great place to work full of great people. Apply for our paid international law student internship before 15 February and join us in Taipei, Taiwan! http://bit.ly/1NWwsdd
_______________________
Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Saturday, January 14, 2017

Taiwan News #8: So much KMT.... =UPDATE WITH MORE AWESOMENESS=

Ants tending aphids. They've curved several leaves around, and parked the aphids inside.

My latest piece in Taiwan News is on the KMT Chairmanship election and its latest developments.
The KMT Chairmanship election heated up with both former Taipei Mayor Hau Long-bin and former Vice President Wu Den-yih challenging current KMT Chair Hung Hsiu-chu for her seat in the May 20 election. This trio was immediately parodied by Taiwan netizens as Hau-Wu-Chu (好無助), a homonym for "hopeless." Wu, a practiced politician, delivered an Oscar-worthy press conference, a Noh play of traditional references to Sun Yat-sen, calls for "power under unity" for the KMT, and a mask of tears for the memory of President Chiang Ching-kuo, who has the same kind of sainthood for the KMT that Ronald Reagan does for the US Republican party. Clearly the ability to summon tears at will is a must for would-be politicians in Taiwan.
Should be "so hopeless" not "hopeless".

None of these politicians has much of a following outside the KMT. Indeed, this week Hau observed that Wu is one of the least popular politicians among the population at large, and said that if elected Chairman, he would make Terry Gou (Wiki), the head of Foxconn, the 2020 KMT presidential candidate. Gou is a (1) big businessman whose (2) primary business is in China, and (3) who will be 70 in 2020. I am sure that 1, 2, and 3 will make him very attractive to younger and working/middle class Taiwanese, and to younger members of the KMT.

But from the KMT point of view Gou would have one priceless quality: he could afford to pay for his own election campaign. The KMT might not be able to...

Steve Chan, who resigned his KMT Vice Chairman position last week, announced his candidacy. Some of you might recall that Hung Hsiu-chu was in SE Asia a while back trawling local Chinese communities for support -- this week she is in the US doing the same.

At least we did get an entertaining alternative candidate for the KMT Chair in the person of Han Kuo-yu... UPDATE: but for sheer awesomeness this song for Wu Den-yih announcing his candidacy cannot be beat.

In the DPP other individuals are declaring their interest in candidacies. Kuan Bi-ling, the DPP politico, said she'd be interested in running for K-town mayor. The tussle over New Taipei City, currently the nation's largest, looks to be quite interesting, especially if current Tainan mayor William Lai shows an interest in running, which he should do if he wants to become President. He would likely beat all comers. But for 2020 and beyond, many of us are thinking current Taoyuan mayor (can you even think of his name?) ____ will be a powerful dark horse presidential candidate. He's popular and appears to be doing a good job in Taoyuan. Current Taichung mayor Lin Jia-long is also said to harbor presidential ambitions.

The DPP's discussion of who gets what merely emphasizes how its geographic advantages are so powerful -- the DPP has a lock on the south and can develop new candidates with wide population bases, whereas of the KMT-held areas Miaoli, Nantou, Hualien, and Taitung lack the money and population to vault a politician to national prominence, except for corruption allegations. Whoever wins the DPP nomination in K-town and the election will automatically come into consideration as a possible presidential candidate, and certainly for higher national posts such as Premier.

Also apropro: Timothy Rich: Can the KMT rebuild itself?
_______________________
Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Tuesday, August 23, 2016

Two Hit Pieces on the Tsai Administration

We were heartbroken to lose our beautiful lab/retriever mix to kidney failure a couple of months ago. Then yesterday I was in the street in front of our house parking my scooter when this dog, a neighbor's, ran over to say hello. He is super friendly, and of course I greeted him. I remarked to our neighbor on how gorgeous he was and joked that I wished he were mine. My neighbor laughed and said I could have him, because he was her daughter's and neither mom nor daughter wanted him. Next thing I knew, we'd adopted him. So wonderful!

First, the good news. AP has made a quantum leap in quality in The Formula:
China claims Taiwan is its own territory, to be brought under its control by force if necessary. Tsai's election upended Beijing's strategy of using economic inducements to convince Taiwanese that political unification is not only inevitable but also in their best interests.

Tsai's Democratic Progressive Party holds a strong legislative majority and favors Taiwan's formal independence from China, although she has taken no steps toward that goal.

Despite that, her refusal to endorse the concept of a single Chinese nation prompted Beijing to suspend the liaison contacts days after her inauguration, in an attempt to ratchet up pressure on her.

Although China says Taiwan has been part of its territory since ancient times, the two sides have only been unified for four of the past 120 years, splitting most recently amid the Chinese civil war in 1949. Taiwan does not acknowledge Beijing's claim of authority over it, while surveys show an overwhelming majority of Taiwanese favor maintaining their current state of de-facto independence.
Depending on what you mean by "unified" AP is wrong to say for those four years Taiwan was "unified" -- the ROC occupied it on behalf of the wartime Allies and it was not (and is not) part of China. But note the care that AP takes to present the Taiwan side in this, and also to correctly define the 1992 Consensus (not even mentioned!!!) as what it is: the demand that Tsai say Taiwan is part of China. This is a thing lovely to see. Mega kudos and beers on me, if I ever meet this writer.

Aside: My observant friend pointed out to me another fascinating aspect of Tsai's apology to the aborigines: her apology re-orients all groups on the state as a neutral arbitrator with all citizens having a state-based citizenship, rather than the KMT vision of a ethnic-colonial state with a Han ruling elite redefining and then playing off local ethnic groups against each other to maintain power (a classic imperial ruling mode). Creating a neutral and Taiwan-centered State is a key yet little noted aspect of the post colonial transition Tsai must manage.

Sadly, the last week saw two hit pieces on the Tsai Administration, President Tsai Ing-wen ‘losing control’ of Taiwan’s pro-independence camp from Lawrence Chung in SCMP, whose pro-China/KMT political stance is obvious, the other from Ralph Jennings in the LA Times, Taiwan's ties with China slip as new president fumbles for a formula. Both hit pieces open with headlines that emphasize the President is losing control and directionless.

The Chung piece, despite its political views (even quoting those unnamed analysts) was actually more balanced: it gave views from the Green camp in last two paragraphs (placed where they could be most easily cut by the editor, but still...). The Jennings piece contains little of such balance and worse, is studded with erroneous claims and KMT propaganda attacks. Let's look at that headline:
Taiwan's ties with China slip as new president fumbles for a formula  
The direction of the attack is obvious from the beginning...

Onward:
It demanded stronger safety measures for its travelers on the island. Chinese state media warned that tourists might stop going to Taiwan
Note the sequence in Jennings’ piece: China reacts to the crash, innocent victim style.  Reality: China is being opportunistic, using "safety" as pretext for already-planned tourism cut (Jennings notes that planned cut elsewhere). Unlike previous crashes with clear causes, this one was murky and perhaps a murder-suicide. All that context was just removed, because it complicates the simple-minded anti-Tsai narrative that Tsai disrupts relations.
But since Taiwan’s new president, Tsai Ing-wen, took office in May, China has grown surlier and no one is sure how much further it will go. And the abrasiveness cuts both ways: Despite the pledge to help families in the tour bus disaster, Tsai is considerably less conciliatory to China than her predecessor.
Kudos for the first sentence -- so rare in the international media to see agency forthrightly assigned to China. But then comes the false equivalence between aggressor and victim: “abrasiveness cuts both ways”. Apparently resisting annexation is “abrasive”.  And of course the global media double standard: Baltic Republics resisting Russian expansion? Plucky heroic democracies. Tibet and Xinjiang? How sad. Taiwan resisting Chinese expansion? Abrasive!

Please concretely identify an "abrasive" comment from Tsai Ing-wen on China since becoming President.

Also Ma was not "conciliatory". His party was actively allied with the CCP in annexing Taiwan to China. But none of that ever appears in the western media. Jennings even quotes the MAC:
“We need to know people’s views and keep listening to other people’s voices,” said Chiu Chui-cheng, spokesman for Taiwan’s China policymaking body, the Mainland Affairs Council. “With so much flexibility and goodwill, we think China should show support and understanding.”
Very conciliatory language. But apparently it's "abrasive".

Jennings...
“President Tsai is still trying to find a solution,” said Liu Yi-jiun, public affairs professor at Fo Guang University in Taiwan. “She’s entering … the tunnel and she’s still far away from the end. ... She needs to say something not to discourage the Chinese leaders.”
Liu Yi-jiun’s web page at the university is here. In fact if you search the name, the vast majority of hits are from… Ralph Jennings’ articles.  Despite the large number of observant, heavyweight journalists, academics, commentators, and political players in the capital, Jennings draws quotes monotonously from an academic at a second-tier university in the hills outside Taipei.

Apparently it never occurs to these commentators or writers that Tsai might know what she was doing and it is they who are clueless. But then "Tsai is smarter than us" wouldn't make good copy...
Beijing wants Tsai’s administration to enter a dialogue in which each side casts itself as part of a single entity known as China, though subject to different interpretations — a bit like China’s “one country, two systems” approach to Hong Kong. 
This is just a plain error: Beijing has NEVER accepted the “two interpretations” codicil. That that claim is KMT propaganda. Beijing does not want Tsai to "enter into a dialogue". It wants Tsai to say that Taiwan is part of China.

Progress: in several of the last few articles I have seen, the bogus term 1992 Consensus has entirely disappeared. Apparently even editors in newsrooms far away have realized it is bullshit and are now searching for formulas to represent it.

Jennings continues:
Complicating matters are the China-related mishaps, including the bus fire, that have mounted quickly under Tsai’s watch.
That and the errant missile are the only China-related mishaps. The others named below it either have nada to do with China, or were caused by China. Such problems occur at the same rate as during other presidencies (remember the falling crane, the train derailment on Alishan, the Suhua Highway Bus Crash, or the 2015 Transasia airplane crash? All killed Chinese tourists), but if that were said, Jennings' "mounted quickly" narrative would disappear. In fact tourism is dangerous and Chinese (and all other!) tourists are regularly involved in deadly incidents of all kind all over the world, but why provide context? Too rational, that...

Jennings:
In July, Beijing’s top Taiwan policy advisor predicted a “severe” effect on relations after the island’s navy misfired a supersonic antiship missile. 
This scene will be familiar to readers: western media forwards Chinese propaganda with neither further investigation nor caveats. Note that no “severe” effect on relations has occurred since -- it is nearly September. Jennings does not bother to mention that, of course. Stenography like this is how the media creates the appearance of tensions: since no one will bother to report that nothing happened, readers abroad will naturally assume that something serious has subsequently occurred.

Never mind that if something "severe" occurs, it will not because of some errant missile, but because China was simple waiting for some incident it could blame for its change of policy.

Jennings:
This month, Kenya deported five  Taiwanese citizens to China, drawing a “strong protest” from the Foreign Ministry in Taipei.  Beijing persuaded Kenya to hand over the Taiwanese, who will probably be charged with fraud, on the premise that they all belong under one flag, that of China.
No other news article makes the claim that Beijing wanted the men because they were “Chinese”. AFAIK Beijing has never asked for the men for that reason. Instead, the Chinese asked for the fraud suspects over a year ago in Jan of 2015 on the (internationally valid) grounds that the crimes had been committed against Chinese, Beijing’s consistent position throughout and with deportations elsewhere. This claim of Jennings’ appears to be a very serious error. Happy to correct if  anyone can supply documentation.
But the absence of talks since Tsai’s inauguration has meant the freezing of any new economic deals.
Talks are not “absent”. They were cut off by Beijing. You can be sure that if Taipei had cut off relations, the international media would be having kittens. But Beijing’s actions are always made to vanish via passive framing. Let’s rewrite that so it is clear...
“But Beijing’s decision to cut off official communication since Tsai’s inauguration has meant the freezing of any new economic deals.”
Jennings continues:
China hoped Tsai would offer an extension of the upbeat relations of the previous eight years, when Beijing-friendly President Ma Ying-jeou agreed to see the two sides as part of one China. That allowed the governments to build trust and sign 23 deals related to trade, transit and investment.
This is just rank nonsense. Ma did not “agree” to see Taiwan as part of China, as if that had ever been in doubt, he has always believed that. Rather, the “trust” occurred because both sides wanted to use economic deals to put Taiwan in China’s orbit, because both espouse the same brand of Han Chinese nationalistic expansionism. At least Jennings observes that Ma was seen as too close to China.

Jennings:
Taiwan should make “concrete efforts for the resumption of cross-strait communication,” China’s State Council Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman, Ma Xiaoguang, said this month, according to the official New China News Agency.
Again, stenographer for Chinese propaganda, reported without analytical comment.  Above it does note that China cut off semi-official communications – but that caveat should be here.

Jennings:
Tsai’s government has discussed no specific proposals to improve ties with China, saying it needs a clearer idea of Taiwanese public opinion before making any moves. But it’s now reviewing existing regulations on Taiwan-China interaction with a view toward improving them, a government official said.
This is what Tsai has always said: the Administration’s policies will be rooted in the people’s desires and the Constitution. Tsai’s characteristic move is to let her opponents talk. She is following that strategy.

Thus, Jennings inverts reality: Tsai knows what she is doing and has a legal basis for her policy, it is Beijing that is confused and uncertain about how to handle a pro-Taiwan government in power in Taipei.  But none of that will be presented in a western media piece, and Beijing’s bombastic quotes will be reproduced without analytical comment by the writer.

Even more urgently: the claim that “Tsai should clarify her China policy” is not a neutral political observation by analysts. It was, throughout the presidential election campaign, a constant refrain of the KMT’s candidates that the DPP should clarify its China policy. No sensitivity is shown to that in this article. Instead, this charge is presented as if it has no history as a KMT propaganda attack (ex: April 2015May 2015Dec 2015 review in the Diplomat).

Indeed, the attacks in this piece from Jennings are simply an expanded version of KMT Chairman Hung Hsiu-chu's attacks on Tsai:
Hung said she has misgivings about the incoming DPP government’s ability to handle cross-strait problems, adding that the relationship would return to the same state as eight years ago, with economic exchanges dwindling, the number of Chinese tourists dropping, military matters becoming more tense and the diplomatic truce ending."
Withal, this LA Times article is little more than a KMT political attack on the Tsai Administration. It is absolutely shameful.

Sucks. Think I'll go hug my dog now.

UPDATE: I removed a section. My deepest apologies to Denny Roy.
_______________
Daily Links:
_______________________
Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Sunday, May 29, 2016

Asian Silicon Valley = DPP Collision with Student Movement

Lovely but hot weather this weekend. Here a friend poses by the wreck of an old suspension bridge near Dongshih.

Well well. Last year, shortly after getting into office, the new Taoyuan mayor saw the construction-industrial state light, and did a 180 on the Taoyuan Aerotropolis project (which he had opposed as a candidate, causing the government to begin expropriating the land before the review was complete), a ridiculous construction-industrial state giveaway. I wrote at the time:
The Aerotropolis is the largest land expropriation in the democratic era. Cheng's turnaround, if it lasts, is likely due to central government pressure. The aerotropolis is a freeport that is a giveaway to land speculators and land developers, and with its suspension of many labor laws, is likely intended as a portal to let Chinese labor into Taiwan.

Stopping that aerotropolis is a key to the DPP's remaining a serious party in Taiwan. It can't just pretend to be the party of social justice and economic development for ordinary people. It actually has to be one. If Cheng flips on this, it will cost the DPP Taoyuan in 2018 and hurt its chances in the Presidential election.
J Michael Cole's wonderful rant in 2013 is well worth revisiting (also my post on his). As originally envisioned (the draft bill is here) the project was going to let Chinese infrastructure firms bid on it, which would have been a disaster, one of the many pro-China decisions that cost the KMT in 2014 and 2016. The project would also have been governed by the free trade zone rules proposed by the KMT, which would turn the zone administrators into dictators administering miniature Uzbekistans. Indeed, there was some speculation that casino gambling would be permitted within the Aerotropolis as a free trade zone unrestricted by the rules applied to the rest of Taiwan.

The DPP has apparently learned little, for the new government has chosen the Aerotropolis as the site for its Asian Silicon Valley...
Premier Lin Chuan (林全) yesterday vowed to reduce land expropriation and enhance communication with the public as the government pushes forward with the Taoyuan Aerotropolis project, which is to be a key component of a larger “Asian Silicon Valley” project that President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) proposed during her campaign [MT: 2015 article].

...

“Politically speaking, [the government] should reduce unnecessary land expropriation to avoid delays in the project’s progress due to protests by local residents,” Lin said in response to media queries for comments on the stalled project.

“The government should also do its best to communicate with the public. I believe that [Taoyuan Mayor] Cheng Wen-tsang (鄭文燦) would help negotiate and he should not only follow the rules and regulations, but also pay attention to things that have been overlooked.”

....

“Taipei and Hsinchu are the right and left hands of Taoyuan, with Taipei being an international metropolis and Hsinchu being an important research and development hub for the IT industry,” Lin said. “We have chosen Taoyuan as the base for the Asian Silicon Valley project to revive the economy in northern Taiwan.”
The Asian Silicon Valley is the island's industrial site for its internet-of-things operations, which everyone expects will be the Next Big Thing. China Post compares it to Ma's China-centric economic plans here, but in many ways it is just another in a long long long line of projects that are supposed to internationalize Taiwan's economy by linking airports and high-tech manufacturing and getting outsider firms to relocate here. Remember the chimerical APROC plan?

"To revive the economy in northern Taiwan". ROFL. The economy in northern Taiwan is just fine, thanks. It's the center and south that desperately need investment; occupancy rates in the southern science parks are below average. The real purpose of such announcements is to get local construction-industrial state patronage networks to re-orient on the DPP because it is now doling out construction dollars, expropriating land and handing it to developers, and keeping housing prices in Taoyuan up. Whatever happened to the DPP's commitment to spreading development from the north to other regions?

Note the presence of the strange phrase "unnecessary land expropriation". How can such a thing exist? Was land not in the project being expropriated? Isn't all expropriation "necessary expropriation"? Or what? "Unnecessary land expropriation" = {null}. Couple that with the "better communication" promise and you have full-blown Ma Ying-jeou Administration jive talkin' at its finest. This is the technocratic administration "communicating" and everyone should shut up and listen. Because the government's plans are never wrong, the problem can only be insufficient communication.

Now, recall that the land expropriations triggered protests before (student roughed up)

Recall that the student movement has promised to hold the DPP to account.

This seems, at some point, tailor-made for a collision between the students/Sunflowers and the DPP administration.
_____________
Daily Links:


_______________________
Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Tuesday, May 24, 2016

Tsai Speaks on Friday

April export orders: US is leader, but the making will happen in China. Over half of orders have been made there for several years now. 

Friday was a deeply emotional day for me. President-elect Tsai became President Tsai, a tremendously satisfying event. I managed to watch a bit of the ceremony. Then came home in the afternoon and found out our beloved Golden Retriever's kidneys had failed and he had to be euthanized. That was wretched. So I didn't post on Saturday. Kinda took the wind out of my blogging sails.

There is actually not that much to say, everyone already said it....

I was holding off posting this because I was waiting for my man Michal Thim's excellent piece to come out in SCMP. He noted, like everyone except a few people who weren't paying attention, that Tsai did not affirm or acknowledge the faux "1992 Consensus". Instead...
Instead, she referred to cross-strait arrangements using ambiguous wording. Primarily, she noted that in 1992, “the two institutions representing each side across the strait ... arrived at various joint acknowledgements and understandings”. “Since 1992, over 20 years of interactions and negotiations across the strait have enabled and accumulated outcomes which both sides must collectively cherish and sustain; and it is based on such existing realities and political foundations that the stable and peaceful development of the cross-strait relationship must be continuously promoted,” she said.

This may not be exactly what Beijing wants to hear but ambiguity in diplomatic speech is often of greater value than clarity. Tsai did not refer to “one China”, yet she also did not explicitly declare that cross-strait ties are relations between two sovereign states.
Tsai left Beijing "considerable room".  Thim noted what many of us have long said: because Chinese links in Taiwan are links to the KMT and its patronage networks and allies...
Whatever punishment Beijing may come up with to express its displeasure with the new administration, the first to suffer will be the KMT-linked local power holders and businesses.
Thim ends excellently:
Cross-strait relations could very well become full of conflict but, this time, Taiwan would not be seen as the troublemaker; it would be just another neighbour with strained relations. It does not have to be that way, though. Tsai’s speech offers enough space to step back and embrace the ambiguity. The ball is in Beijing’s court.
Many observers noted that Beijing's response that Tsai had turned in an "incomplete answer sheet" on the 1992 Consensus actually could be taken to mean that she at least had given some of the answers. The public, which knows that acceptance of the 1992 Consensus means acceptance that Taiwan is part of China, supports her position overwhelmingly, according to a poll from the Deep Blue TVBS.

Beijing gives every appearance of not having a Taiwan policy. Its first move was to threaten to "suspend talks".
Meanwhile, Beijing’s semi-official intermediary for discussing cross-strait relations, the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS), said that if Tsai wanted negotiations with its Taiwanese counterpart, the Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) to continue, Taiwanese authorities needed to endorse the SEF to declare adherence to the 1992 consensus.
The international media spotted that for the clickbait it was, and ran with it. But of course, the talks it threatens to suspend are precisely those talks that have no material effect on things -- the least important of the many discourses Beijing has with Taiwan.

Beijing could say that Chen Shui-bian was "provocative" and break off talks. In those days Taiwanese built factories in China and shipped stuff out. The vast range of engagement Beijing now has with Taiwan didn't exist. Now it talks to Taipei about everything from crime to high finance (wait, those are the same thing, let me find another one)... from crime to education to tourism, you name it. The KMT and CCP have many links, and politicians from the DPP travel to China and engage with officials there, as well as quietly run businesses, so the story goes (shhhhh). Businessmen, artists, and tourists shuttle back and forth. Talks? They make great media copy....

Beijing does the same thing with the US -- it threatens to break off mil-mil relations, since those have zero cost to Beijing and the US for some comic, bizarre reason thinks they are really, really important. The US response to China's threats to cut off military relations reminds me of the alien from Men in Black at that moment when the alien is about to escape and suddenly Will Smith threatens a cockroach: "Is that your uncle?"

Meanwhile the really important costly punishments involving trade or finance are never meted out. Bejing does not want to pay those costs.

In case you wondering what Tsai actually said compared to Ma, Ben Goren at Letters from Taiwan did a statistical analysis. Very informative.

New Bloom had a fantastic run-down on the ceremony and the presentation of history, including the patronizing, offensive remarks of the emcee. From what I could see, the DPP apparently attempted to subsume the entire history of resistance to KMT rule into a narrative that located the tangwai politicians who became the DPP at the center, which rankled various groups. It has learned little, still presenting ethnic relations in conventional, Han chauvinist terms. In the long run this will cost it, unless it grows up quickly.

Richard Bush at Brookings argues that it could have been worse, and finishes...
The not-so-good news is that the situation between the two sides remains delicate. China has other actions it can take to convey its dissatisfaction. Beijing and Taipei have gotten past the milestone of Tsai’s inauguration without triggering an immediate deterioration, but they have not fully stabilized their relations. This is only a beginning, and what will be needed going forward is a process of incremental trust-building through reciprocal and positive words and deeds. A number of outstanding issues remain to be addressed, and unexpected events can very easily derail progress. As a start, however, this isn’t bad.
It is apparently indelicate to point this out, but as long as China holds a gun to Taiwan's head, trust will never be built and the situation will never be stabilized.

Additional Nelson Report commentary -- click on READ MORE:

Monday, April 25, 2016

KMT to bash DPP with pork

This is what Taiwan needs: more recycling bikes

The KMT has found the first major issue it can use to bash the DPP with, with the Veep warning the DPP that permitting US pork imports would land it in hot water:
Vice President Wu Den-yih (吳敦義) yesterday denounced President-elect Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) for not caring about citizens’ health. Wu noted that when Tsai was Deputy Premier, she failed to impose a ban on US beef when an outbreak of mad cow disease occurred in the US. According to Wu, it is now even more challenging for Tsai to lift the ban on US pork imports containing ractopamine residue as “people will hold her accountable.”

In response, the DPP retorted that when Wu was Premier, he was the one who allowed US beef to be imported from areas where mad cow disease had occurred without regard for the safety and health of people in Taiwan.
Pork and beef are contentious not because the government cares about the health of Taiwanese, but because both KMT and DPP patronage networks in farming communities are filled with pork farmers. Taiwan produces little beef, but under WTO regulations, if it imports beef with ractopamine, it must import all products containing that drug. Hence, if it imports US beef, it must accept US pork (before the beef mess began years ago, Taiwan took about one-eighth of US beef exports). However, if it takes in heavily subsidized US pork, local producers will scream (as will I, I hate rubbery US pork and prefer the fatty local stuff). Those producers will then blame whichever party lets in the pork.

The situation is even more complicated because the NPP is now bashing the DPP from the left on the pork issue even as the KMT bashes it from the right.

Note also that the KMT assigned this bashing to Wu Den-yi, a classic move -- it allows the Big Man (Ma Ying-jeou) to remain benevolent and distant while the right-hand man says what he really thinks. Moreover, Wu is a Taiwanese and presumably speaks to Taiwanese as one of their own...

Only the first of many such issues...
_________________
Daily Links
_______________________
Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Tsai picks a veep

An egret looks for lunch.

Taiwan Today describes:
Opposition Democratic Progressive Party Chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen announced Nov. 16 that she has chosen Chen Chien-jen, vice president of Taiwan’s foremost research body Academia Sinica, as her running mate in the 2016 ROC presidential election.

An epidemiologist and minister of health from 2003 to 2005, Chen rose to national fame for heading the campaign against the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak in Taiwan. He demonstrated extraordinary communication and coordination skills during the fight against the illness, according to Tsai.

“Chen’s calm leadership and willingness to take up the challenge helped restore confidence to a nation plagued by the disease,” she said during a media conference in Taipei City. “I have every reason to believe that he can lend invaluable assistance to my team with his exceptional experience and expertise.”
This is an excellent pick: a researcher with an international reputation, who adds lustre to her team. I love the way the comment I've bolded there is a subtle dig at the KMT's lackluster approach to the Tainan dengue outbreak. There's much suspicion among the pan-Green side that the Ma Administration let the epidemic get out of hand in order to reflect negatively on Tainan's popular Mayor, Lai Ching-de.

Chen is Catholic....
Quoting Pope Francis, Chen said real power is service and that a good shepherd wears the smell of his flock, adding that the pontiff also encourages Catholics to enter politics so that they can bring change and attend to the needs of the impoverished and the disadvantaged.

“While [former Academia Sinica] president Lee Yuan-tseh (李遠哲) is reluctant to see me embroiled in the whirlpool of political struggle ... he is convinced that Tsai’s campaign policies are the most practical, feasible and favorable to Taiwan’s future,” Chen said.
....and is not part of any party or faction, meaning that Tsai did not trigger the ire of the DPP's notoriously nasty factions in picking him. Moreover, as an apparent technocrat he will appeal to the "swing" voters -- many of them light blues who will vote green to demonstrate to themselves that they are liberal minded if offered a technocrat rather than an old-style independence activist. Chen was Minister of the National Science Council in the Chen Shui-bian Administration from 2006-2008. Early in his career, he identified the cause of the notorious blackfoot disease.

Note that Chen referred to Nobel laureate Lee Yuan-tseh, whose 2004 endorsement was a big plus for Chen Shui-bian. This confers his blessing on Tsai...

So far the DPP is doing everything right. 60 days til the election, 7 months until we have a rational, Taiwan-centered administration.

Meanwhile, the KMT news organ reported on the KMT's Eric Chu.
KMT Presidential candidate Eric Chu had disclosed before his US visit that his running mate was all but decided, and would have both political and social experiences. Eric Chu stated candidly yesterday that gender, provincial background, and geographic distribution were not to be considered in his choice of a running mate.

Moreover, Chu stated that by “experiences” in political and social affairs, he was referring to political appointees, legislators, and county executives or city mayors. However, as he had a finance / economics background, he would search for a running mate “complementary” in specialization. As Chu just returned to Taiwan, he said he would contact his prospective running mate and make a formal announcement after everything was finalized in the coming days.
_______________________
Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!

Thursday, November 05, 2015

馬習團: Evening Media Round Up

Fishing.

All the international media is entirely correct. This pony and dog show in Singapore does indeed herald a new era in China-Taiwan relations: the Tsai Ing-wen era, when China will have to adjust to dealing with a DPP administration which the US will, I expect, reluctantly come to support more and more as tensions grow between Beijing and Washington. Things are changing in Asia, and Xi is attempting to signal to neighboring states as well as to domestic audiences that he is flexible enough to change with them (see below).

NOTES FROM THE FIELD: Today a couple of my students said they were happy to think about Ma shaking hands with Xi. Apparently there was a legend running around the PTTs (internet bulletin boards widely used among students) last year which talked about Ma's Handshake of Death -- shaking hands with Ma was certain to be followed by bad luck. Apparently Ma shook the hands of the pilots of the Apache helicopter he rode in, which was the first one that crashed. Other examples were given, but I can't remember them.

A friend remarks: Ma and Xi splitting the dinner bill? So... they're going Dutch in homage to Taiwan's colonial roots..."

Straits Times: KMT hoping for Boost. Extensively quotes J Michael Cole, a "Taipei-based analyst".
To boost KMT's chances, cross-strait expert Chu Jingtao of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences believes Mr Xi may promise more room for Taiwan in the global arena to counter the long-running grumbles among Taiwanese over the island's limited involvement in multilateral initiatives.

Asked if the meeting may have come too late, Dr Chu said: "It's hard to predict the election outcome. The Taiwanese people, and also the Americans, know that an unstable cross-strait situation is not good for anyone."

But some observers believe the CCP is already preparing for the event of a DPP win by trying to protect the progress in cross-strait cooperation since the Beijing-friendly KMT took power in 2008.
I love that last paragraph -- Beijing is "protecting" cross-strait cooperation as if the DPP were a threat. It is Beijing's threat to annex Taiwan, not DPP resistance, that threatens the China-Taiwan relationship. Beijing can have good relations any time, merely by ceasing to threaten to Taiwan.

FocusTaiwan: President hopes meetings will become regular.
Taipei, Nov. 5 (CNA) President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) said Thursday that his upcoming "historic landmark" talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) will mark the first step toward making such meetings a regular occurrence between the leaders of the two sides and will help further improve cross-Taiwan Strait relations.
The Diplomat: Shannon Tiezzi rounds up What We Know So Far. It's ok until the end, where it suddenly veers into KMT/CCP propaganda territory:
While the KMT has refuted charges that the Ma-Xi meeting is an attempt to shore up support before the election, there’s little doubt that Beijing wants to use the meeting to showcase its vision for cross-strait relations. One of the points of the meeting, according to Zheng, is to solidify the 1992 consensus as the “common political foundation” of the relationship. The 1992 consensus, in which both sides agreed there is one China, while remaining ambiguous on which government represents “China,” has never been accepted by the DPP. Beijing had repeatedly painted acceptance of the 1992 consensus as its bottom line for cross-strait relations, and will look to use the Ma-Xi meeting to drive that point home.

Zhang also took a more overt swipe at the DPP, saying that years ago, when the cross-strait relationship was “on the verge of a crisis” thanks to the “provocations of ‘Taiwan independence’ splittist forces,” a meeting of the top leaders from both sides would have been hard to imagine. Zhang was referring to is the cross-strait tensions that came under the leadership of the only DPP president to date, Chen Shui-bian.
Again the tensions that occur without any cause. Wouldn't it be great if the sentence had read "the tensions ramped up by China during the Chen Administration." The 1992 Consensus never existed, it is merely a cage to imprison the DPP. That needs to be in there to properly contextualize the 1992C. The common political foundation of CCP-KMT talks is not the 1992C but China's desire to annex Taiwan.

New Bloom: Two Days of Empty Words
And in the roughly two days since news broke, we have largely seem empty words from the Ma administration in which the Ma government insisted that Taiwan’s rights would not be compromised through the meeting. Yet the Ma government as well as Ma himself have attempted to occlude any specifics of the complex diplomatic dance by which Ma and Xi are to meet as equals without acknowledging each other as sovereign heads of state, though the details that media has managed to pry from the Ma administration are quite ridiculous. Ma and Xi will address each other solely as “Mister,” for example, in order to avoid the complicated question of how Chinese and Taiwanese high government officials should address the other which has been an obstacle to holding cross-strait meetings in the past. Significantly, in all this, China has only ever been referred to by Ma as well as officials as “the mainland,” not as “China”, or as “mainland China.” Furthermore, attempts by Mainland Affairs Congress to obfuscate issues were quite borderline at times, insisting that the situation was perfectly clear where “the leader of Taiwan is the leader of Taiwan and the leader of China is the leader of China”—when, of course, what is not clear at all is what the relation of the leader of Taiwan to the leader of China would be in this meeting.
Frozen Garlic on the public reaction -- Frozen Garlic has turned out a string of excellent posts at a furious pace, wish he'd do that more often. Read the whole post, but his critique of the polls:
There is some fuzzy public opinion data that suggests the population is generally supportive of high level contact. The Mainland Affairs Council has been claiming that 80% of the population expressed approval to a meeting of leaders done with appropriate respect. I don’t know where that number comes from, but they do regular surveys. They could be cherry-picking a specific result and this concrete Ma-Xi meeting may or may not satisfy the hypothetical condition of mutual respect, but we probably shouldn’t dismiss this datum altogether. Apple Daily had an online poll yesterday that was running about 70% in favor of the meeting when I checked last night. (I can’t find a link.) However, voluntary online polls are always problematic since supporters or opponents can flood the poll with responses if they wish. Today Apple has a telephone poll up that shows the opposite result: 53% oppose the meeting while only 38% support it. Be careful with this number, though. The two options were, “I don’t support it. President Ma will leave office soon, so handling cross straits affairs should be left to the next president,” and “I support it. It will help cross straits relations.” The sample size is only 420, so this has a sampling error of about 5%. Apple’s polls are also voice-recorded, and they tend to be a little less consistent than polls from other organizations using human interviewers. The Pollcracy Lab run by the Election Study Center also did a quick internet survey yesterday and found that 64% of respondents supported the Ma-Xi meeting. Again, take this number with some reservations. The sample size was only 275, and this was a non-random sample. I have no idea what the margin of error is for this type of survey. However, unlike most media internet surveys, it would be very difficult for supporters or opponents to infiltrate and sway these results. The ESC gets email addresses from telephone respondents (in other surveys), and the Pollcracy Lab sends out invitations to participate in an internet survey to people on this list. Thus, while this is not a random sample, neither is it a self-selected sample. (Note: I am an adjunct faculty member at the Election Study Center at NCCU, but I am not involved in the Pollcracy Lab project. I learned of this survey on my Facebook feed.)
I polled a couple of my classes anonymously. My students were fairly divided with majority not in favor of this meeting, and a clear majority thinking it would not help the KMT, so I suspect Froze is right and there might well be majority support, though the reasons will vary across groups (lots of us support this meeting because we see it as bad for the KMT). Froze also spends much time talking about the excellent reaction of Tsai Ing-wen, which, as many observers have noted, is calm, prepared, and critical of Ma's action from the perspective of Taiwan's democratic development. One of the many sources of KMT failure is its objection to democracy, and to take democracy into its own identity. The KMT remains very much the party of a small circle of crony elites run by a Big Man. Meanwhile when Tsai speaks, she speaks from a robust and growing democratic identity shared across Taiwan -- no one in the KMT can do that at present.

Like many, Frozen Garlic noted that Tsai's calmness shows that the KMT claim that only it can handle cross-strait relations is hollow; Tsai obviously can (indeed, she has experience in that government department). Public opinion polls support her on this.

FocusTaiwan carries the government denial that the South China Sea will be touched on at the meeting. Many people fearing some kind of joint statement on it that aligns Taiwan with the China claims. Ma claimed he will ask for more space for Taiwan in international organizations. It seems that at best he will come home with another hollow gain, like observer status at WHO, which the public will laugh at, or ask why he couldn't have done that sooner.

Ralph Jennings in Forbes argues for three potential outcomes:
3. The two sides reach an invisible understanding. Ma will step down next year due to term limits. Per opinion polls, the next president will be Tsai Ing-wen, who advocates a rethink of today’s friendly dialogue with China. But Tsai’s party has poor relations with the Communists. Ma and Xi might set a course for informal party-to-party ties even when the Nationalists aren’t in power. Their back channel would sidestep Tsai’s government to give economic goodies to Taiwan’s skeptical public, giving the Nationalists a better chance at the presidency in 2020.
Of course they will have back channels. I sure hope they use them to give "economic goodies". Ma's economic arrangements have done nothing but damage Taiwan's interests for the sake of big business and of course, to help China, and we can expect more of the same, which would harm the KMT even further. China's leaders are not free traders but zero-sum mercantilists. China will never make concessions that meaningfully benefit Taiwan.

MAC suggests that cross-strait leader meetings be institutionalized. That would be great. It will be fun watching Tsai Ing-wen calmly deflecting slights from Beijing in an empty meeting, which all of Taiwan will feel as a slight to itself. Ma Ying-jeou will never have an affectionate nickname like 小英 ("little Ing"), a moniker widely used among her supporters.

A coup for Ketagalan Media which hosts a piece from the extremely sharp, extremely professional Gwenyth Wang: The Ma-Xi Summit Double Edged Sword. The last two paras rock:
Furthermore, China would like to create an atmosphere internationally that Taiwan is on China’s side, especially with tensions rising with the United States and Southeast Asia over the South China Sea. National Taiwan University Political Science Professor Tao Yi-feng commented in an op-ed that the KMT’s prospect in the 2016 election is not of Xi’s concern. Rather, Xi aims to portray China as a “peacemaker” in the region by having a historical Ma-Xi meeting while steering the direction of ties to be more aligned with China’s interests.

For President Ma, he vows to deliver cross-Strait peace and reduce the uncertainty in the relations between Taiwan and China. However, as Taiwan-China relations develop, no change can be single-handedly decided by the leaders. Rather, the people must have the final say. Ma and Xi might hope to “institutionalize” the 1992 Consensus by the historical meeting; however, what they really need do is to take into account the vibrant Taiwanese civil society and the growing Taiwan identity that is steering the island away from the bridge built by President Ma.
ChineseWhy did Xi meet Ma? Regional politics. Good point -- too much analysis is looking at this only from the cross-strait perspective.

REFS: SCMP Says Taiwan's MAC suggested timing of meeting. Times of India blog on the meeting. Video: J Michael Cole on Al Jazeera spanking a Beijing political warfare propagandist, with Jonathon Fenby. KMT argues that Xi has "virtually accepted" the One Country, Two governments formula.

FOR AMUSEMENT PURPOSES ONLYTIME is so freakishly stupid, it's no wonder everyone reads blogs and forums. "Taiwan's Founder?" Absolutely shameful. Precious space in a major media organ, and all they can do is urk up rank nonsense. I can name at least 50 locally-based writers who do 10X better work. Though saying nothing is rather appropriate, considering what's going to happen at the MaXiMeet. It's interesting to compare how thin and silly the listicles TIME produced (one here) even though they do cite the awesome Willy Lam, compared to the meaty stuff produced practically anywhere else.

A European Taiwan observer summed up the TIME piece on the Founder of Taiwan as well as how much the media has changed in the last decade, and especially since the Sunflowers: "Actually, most of the media reports were fairly good. This stupid above used to be norm."
____________________
MOAR Daily Links:
_______________________
Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums!