It’s like something out of a celebrity reporter’s dream. Two stars of the landmark series “Succession,” Kieran Culkin and Jeremy Strong, have already faced off for the Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series Emmy Award. Despite Strong having won in 2020, Culkin took the honor for the show’s final season this past January. Now, not even a year later, Culkin and Strong are favorites to face off again in the Supporting Actress category at the 77th Academy Awards. Fun, right?
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Notably, Culkin is practically a lock to earn a nomination for Jesse Eisenberg’s Sundance dreamed, while Strong has a good chance to get in for portraying Roy Cohn in Ali Abbasi‘s Trump True Story. Granted, if you know who is re-elected, members may not be inclined to even think of voting for the Cannes player. If both do make the cut, it will be fun monologue fodder for whoever hosts the telecast this year.
If we presume those two are in, then the likely third nominee is “Sing Sing’s” Clarence Maclin. The only question around his inclusion is the million-dollar question surrounding the A24 release overall: Will enough members watch it? Shoot, will enough SAG nominating committee members watch it? Thankfully, the awards media will do its best to prop him up (and perhaps some critics’ groups too).
That leaves two more slots that are genuinely wide open. Stanley Tucci for “Conclave”? Sure. Will his co-star John Lithgow split the vote, though? Can either John Magaro or Peter Sarsgaard earn recognition for “September 5,” or will they also cancel each other out? Will that same fate meet Josh O’Connor and Mike Faist for “Challengers”? Or Guy Pearce and Joe Alwyn for “The Brutalist”? Can member love for “Anora” lift Yura Borisov into the five? (Is no one going to ask him or fellow Russian co-star Mark Eydelshteyn about Ukraine over the entire awards season? That’s drama waiting to happen, right?)
But, wait. There are even more possibilities. Three-time nominee Edward Norton for “A Complete Unknown.” Honorary Oscar winner Samuel L. Jackson for “The Piano Lesson.” Former nominees Antonio Banderas and Austin Butler for “Babygirl” and “Dune, Part II” respectively. “Nosferatu” stars Willem Dafoe and Bill Skarsgard. Oh, and none other than Denzel Washington for “Gladiator II.” Needless to say, this one is gonna be a wild ride. [Posted April 7]
Frontrunners
Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Almost There
Clarence Maclin, “Sing Sing”
Jeremy Strong, “The Apprentice”
Stanley Tucci, “Conclave”
John Magaro, “September 5”
Peter Sarsgaard, “September 5”
Joe Alwyn, “The Brutalist”
Josh O’Connor, “Challengers”
Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist”
John Lithgow, “Conclave”
Yura Borisov, “Anora”
Mike Faist, “Challengers”
Possible
Samuel L. Jackson, “The Piano Lesson”
Edward Norton, “A Complete Unknown”*
Denzel Washington, “Gladiator II”*
Mark Eydelshteyn, “Anora”
Antonio Banderas, “Babygirl”
Austin Butler, “Dune, Part II”
Willem Dafoe, “Nosferatu”*
Bill Skarsgard, “Nosferatu”*
Longshots
Brian Tyree Henry, “The Fire Inside”
Harris Dickinson, “Blitz”*
Adam Pearson, “A Different Man”
Drew Starkey, “Queer”
John Turturro, “The Room Next Door”
Wagner Moura, “Civil War”
Dennis Quaid, “The Substance”
Richard Roundtree, “Thelma”
*Not screened for industry or media by publication