Papers by Somchit Amnatsan
Accurate prediction of water levels in a river is an important factor for effective flood prevent... more Accurate prediction of water levels in a river is an important factor for effective flood prevention and mitigation. In this study, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) with Wavelet Decomposition has been applied to predict water levels in Nan River of Thailand at N.64 and N.1 gauging stations. These stations are located in Nan province of Thailand. A feed forward neural network with early stopping method of training is adopted to train and generalize the network in order to prevent the network from overfitting the training data. Discrete wavelet analysis is used as the data pre-processing technique to decompose the input data into their detail (high frequency) component and approximation (low frequency) component. The Haar wavelet, the simplest and the oldest of all wavelets (Vidakovic and Mueller 1991) is used to decompose the data in this study. Both original and decomposed data are used as the input of the ANN model. The integration of wavelet analysis and ANN is called the wavelet...
Water
Reservoir inflow forecasting is crucial for appropriate reservoir management, especially in the f... more Reservoir inflow forecasting is crucial for appropriate reservoir management, especially in the flood season. Forecasting for this season must be sufficiently accurate and timely to allow dam managers to release water gradually for flood control in downstream areas. Recently, several models and methodologies have been developed and applied for inflow forecasting, with good results. Nevertheless, most were reported to have weaknesses in capturing the peak flow, especially rare extreme flows. In this study, an analogue-based forecasting method, designated the variation analogue method (VAM), was developed to overcome this weakness. This method, the wavelet artificial neural network (WANN) model, and the weighted mean analogue method (WMAM) were used to forecast the monthly reservoir inflow of the Sirikit Dam, located in the Nan River Basin, one of the eight sub-basins of the Chao Phraya River Basin in Thailand. It is one of four major dams in the Chao Phraya Basin, with a maximum stor...
Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering), 2016
Water
Reservoir inflow forecasting is crucial for appropriate reservoir management, especially in the f... more Reservoir inflow forecasting is crucial for appropriate reservoir management, especially in the flood season. Forecasting for this season must be sufficiently accurate and timely to allow dam managers to release water gradually for flood control in downstream areas. Recently, several models and methodologies have been developed and applied for inflow forecasting, with good results. Nevertheless, most were reported to have weaknesses in capturing the peak flow, especially rare extreme flows. In this study, an analogue-based forecasting method, designated the variation analogue method (VAM), was developed to overcome this weakness. This method, the wavelet artificial neural network (WANN) model, and the weighted mean analogue method (WMAM) were used to forecast the monthly reservoir inflow of the Sirikit Dam, located in the Nan River Basin, one of the eight sub-basins of the Chao Phraya River Basin in Thailand. It is one of four major dams in the Chao Phraya Basin, with a maximum stor...
Although Thailand is not so prone to flooding compared to other countries in the Southeast Asia r... more Although Thailand is not so prone to flooding compared to other countries in the Southeast Asia region, the country is usually faced with flooding problems every year with increasing severity attributed to climate change, including global warming. Many structural measures have been developed to overcome this problem. However, it is realized that structural measures have failed to prevent flooding completely due to unprecedented and unpredictable flooding events. Some flood protection structures, such as levees tend to increase the flood hazard levels with possible breach due to over-stressing resulting in increased damage. Under the circumstances, nonstructural measures are explored more towards sustainable mitigation. Flood hazard mapping through modelling, which helps analyse a variety of possible scenarios, has been the focus of this study. Nan municipality area in Nan province, Thailand, was selected for the study considering the severity of the past occurrences.
... 4 ) Additional Comments A similar model using 22 independent variable was used to forecast st... more ... 4 ) Additional Comments A similar model using 22 independent variable was used to forecast student performance in a college setting. The applications of students were processed bypredicting if they had graduation potential and/or academic excellence potential. ...
Although Thailand is not so prone to flooding compared to other countries in the Southeast Asia r... more Although Thailand is not so prone to flooding compared to other countries in the Southeast Asia region, the country is usually faced with flooding problems every year with increasing severity attributed to climate change, including global warming. Many structural measures have been developed to overcome this problem. However, it is realized that structural measures have failed to prevent flooding completely due to unprecedented and unpredictable flooding events. Some flood protection structures, such as levees tend to increase the flood hazard levels with possible breach due to over-stressing resulting in increased damage. Under the circumstances, nonstructural measures are explored more towards sustainable mitigation. Flood hazard mapping through modelling, which helps analyse a variety of possible scenarios, has been the focus of this study. Nan municipality area in Nan province, Thailand, was selected for the study considering the severity of the past occurrences.
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Papers by Somchit Amnatsan