Papers by Demetrio Marotta Lanzieri
Inserción laboral de la migración venezolana en Latinoamérica, 2021
Este trabajo tiene el doble propósito de poner en evidencia que, en un contexto de crisis general... more Este trabajo tiene el doble propósito de poner en evidencia que, en un contexto de crisis generalizada que ha restringido la actividad económica, el mercado laboral venezolano presenta una serie de desequilibrios que han limitado las oportunidades de inserción laboral y desarrollo personal para un contingente enorme de población que se ha visto forzada a emigrar a otros países. Asimismo, se pretende dar cuenta del volumen y del perfil de los migrantes que han dejado el país en el período reciente, así como de algunos efectos que este proceso migratorio ha tenido sobre el volumen y la estructura de la población venezolana y, en consecuencia, sobre la dinámica laboral.
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Social Science Research Network, 2022
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Informe de Coyuntura Venezuela, Nov 1, 2017
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Inserción laboral de la inmigración venezolana en Latinoamérica, 2021, ISBN 978-612-48528-0-0, págs. 19-43, 2021
Este trabajo tiene el doble propósito de poner en evidencia que, en un contexto de crisis general... more Este trabajo tiene el doble propósito de poner en evidencia que, en un contexto de crisis generalizada que ha restringido la actividad económica, el mercado laboral venezolano presenta una serie de desequilibrios que han limitado las oportunidades de inserción laboral y desarrollo personal para un contingente enorme de población que se ha visto forzada a emigrar a otros países. Asimismo, se pretende dar cuenta del volumen y del perfil de los migrantes que han dejado el país en el período reciente, así como de algunos efectos que este proceso migratorio ha tenido sobre el volumen y la estructura de la población venezolana y, en consecuencia, sobre la dinámica laboral.
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Informe de Coyuntura Venezuela, Jun 1, 2021
En este informe se muestra la evolución reciente y proyectada de los principales agregados macroe... more En este informe se muestra la evolución reciente y proyectada de los principales agregados macroeconómicos que caracterizan a la economía venezolana, en el contexto de un escenario más complicado que el de períodos anteriores a causa de los efectos de COVID-19, que se agregan los desequilibrios preexistentes. En el informe se evalúan y proyectan los agregados macroeconómicos asumiendo que no hay cambios significativos en la formulación y ejecución de la actual política económica. En la presente edición, además, se incorporan nuevas secciones que tratan separadamente los temas referidos a la economía real, la economía informal, la política de transferencias de ingreso monetario y la situación de Venezuela en el contexto mundial de control y erradicación de la pandemia.
This report shows the recent and projected evolution of the main macroeconomic aggregates that characterize the Venezuelan economy, in the context of a more complicated scenario than in previous periods due to the effects of COVID-19, in addition to imbalances pre-existing. The report evaluates and projects the macroeconomic aggregates assuming that there are no significant changes in the formulation and execution of current economic policy. In this edition new sections are incorporated that deal separately with issues related to the real economy, the informal economy, the policy of monetary income transfers and the situation of Venezuela in the global context of control and eradication of the pandemic.
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SSRN Electronic Journal
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Social Science Research Network, 2020
Spanish Abstract: En este informe se muestra la evolucion reciente y proyectada de los principale... more Spanish Abstract: En este informe se muestra la evolucion reciente y proyectada de los principales agregados macroeconomicos que caracterizan a la economia venezolana, en el contexto de un escenario para el cual no se preven cambios significativos en la formulacion y ejecucion de la actual politica economica. En la presente edicion, ademas, se han incorporado nuevas secciones donde se tratan separadamente los temas referidos al sector financiero, el mercado de trabajo y el nivel y distribucion del ingreso. English Abstract: This report shows the recent and probable evolution of the main macroeconomic aggregates that characterize the Venezuelan economy, assuming that no significant changes take place in the current economic policy. This edition includes new sections that treat separately issues related to the financial system, the labor market, and the level and distribution of income.
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En este informe se muestra la evolución reciente y proyectada de los principales agregados macroe... more En este informe se muestra la evolución reciente y proyectada de los principales agregados macroeconómicos que caracterizan a la economía venezolana, en el contexto de un escenario más complicado que el de períodos anteriores a causa de los efectos de COVID-19, que se agregan los desequilibrios preexistentes. En el informe se evalúan y proyectan los agregados macroeconómicos asumiendo que no hay cambios significativos en la formulación y ejecución de la actual política económica. En la presente edición, además, se incorporan nuevas secciones que tratan separadamente los temas referidos a la economía real, la economía informal, la política de transferencias de ingreso monetario y la situación de Venezuela en el contexto mundial de control y erradicación de la
This report shows the recent and projected evolution of the main macroeconomic aggregates that characterize the Venezuelan economy, in the context of a more complicated scenario than in previous periods due to the effects of COVID-19, in addition to imbalances pre-existing. The report evaluates and projects the macroeconomic aggregates assuming that there are no significant changes in the formulation and execution of current economic policy. In this edition new sections are incorporated that deal separately with issues related to the real economy, the informal economy, the policy of monetary income transfers and the situation of Venezuela in the global context of control and eradication of the pandemic.
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Notas sobre la Economía Venezolana 11. Octubre 2021., 2021
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UCAB-IIES, 2020
En este informe se muestra la evolución reciente y proyectada de los principales agregados macroe... more En este informe se muestra la evolución reciente y proyectada de los principales agregados macroeconómicos que caracterizan a la economía venezolana, en el contexto de un escenario para el cual no se prevén cambios significativos en la formulación y ejecución de la actual política económica. En la presente edición, además, se han incorporado nuevas secciones donde se tratan separadamente los temas referidos al sector financiero, el mercado de trabajo y el nivel y distribución del ingreso.
This report shows the recent and probable evolution of the main macroeconomic aggregates that characterize the Venezuelan economy, assuming that no significant changes take place in the current economic policy. This edition includes new sections that treat separately issues related to the financial system, the labor market, and the level and distribution of income.
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Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales-Universidad Católica Andrés Bello, 2019
Resumen
En este trabajo se sintetizan los principales impactos, retos y dilemas que los recientes... more Resumen
En este trabajo se sintetizan los principales impactos, retos y dilemas que los recientes cambios tecnológicos están generando sobre el mercado de trabajo, los sistemas de protección social y las políticas públicas que tienen que ver con estas áreas. Particular interés se presta al caso venezolano, en virtud de la escasa atención que hasta ahora se ha prestado a esta problemática a pesar de las importantes vulnerabilidades que muestra como consecuencia de la larga crisis política, social y económica que se padece.
Abstract:
This paper summarizes the main impacts, challenges and dilemmas that the recent technological changes are generating on the labor market, social protection systems and public policies that have to do with these areas. Particular interest is given to the Venezuelan case, due to the limited attention that has been given to these problems so far despite the significant vulnerabilities that it shows as a consequence of the long political, social and economic crisis that has been suffered.
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Drafts by Demetrio Marotta Lanzieri
Papel de trabajo, 2019
En este trabajo se sintetizan los principales impactos, retos y dilemas que los re-cientes cambio... more En este trabajo se sintetizan los principales impactos, retos y dilemas que los re-cientes cambios tecnológicos están generando sobre el mercado de trabajo, los sis-temas de protección social y las políticas públicas que tienen que ver con estas áreas. Particular interés se presta al caso venezolano, en virtud de la escasa aten-ción que hasta ahora se ha prestado a esta problemática a pesar de las importan-tes vulnerabilidades que muestra como consecuencia de la larga crisis política, social y económica que se padece.
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Working Papers by Demetrio Marotta Lanzieri
Venezuela Informe de coyuntura económica , 2021
En este informe se muestra la evolución reciente y proyectada de los principales agregados macroe... more En este informe se muestra la evolución reciente y proyectada de los principales agregados macroeconómicos que caracterizan a la economía venezolana, en el contexto de un escenario más complicado que el de períodos anteriores a causa de los efectos de COVID-19, que se agregan los desequilibrios preexistentes. En el informe se evalúan y proyectan los agregados macroeconómicos asumiendo que no hay cambios significativos en la formulación y ejecución de la actual política económica. En la presente edición, además, se incorporan nuevas secciones que tratan separadamente los temas referidos a la economía real, la economía informal, la política de transferencias de ingreso monetario y la situación de Venezuela en el contexto mundial de control y erradicación de la pandemia.
This report shows the recent and projected evolution of the main macroeconomic aggregates that characterize the Venezuelan economy, in the context of a more complicated scenario than in previous periods due to the effects of COVID-19, in addition to imbalances pre-existing. The report evaluates and projects the macroeconomic aggregates assuming that there are no significant changes in the formulation and execution of current economic policy. In this edition new sections are incorporated that deal separately with issues related to the real economy, the informal economy, the policy of monetary income transfers and the situation of Venezuela in the global context of control and eradication of the pandemic.
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Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales, Universidad Católica Andrés Bello, 2019
Resumen
En este trabajo se sintetizan los principales impactos, retos y dilemas que los re-ciente... more Resumen
En este trabajo se sintetizan los principales impactos, retos y dilemas que los re-cientes cambios tecnológicos están generando sobre el mercado de trabajo, los sistemas de protección social y las políticas públicas que tienen que ver con estas áreas. Particular interés se presta al caso venezolano, en virtud de la escasa atención que hasta ahora se ha prestado a esta problemática a pesar de las importantes vulnerabilidades que muestra como consecuencia de la larga crisis política, social y económica que se padece.
Abstract:
This paper summarizes the main impacts, challenges and dilemmas that the recent technological changes are generating on the labor market, social protection systems and public policies that have to do with these areas. Particular interest is given to the Venezuelan case, due to the limited attention that has been given to these problems so far despite the significant vulnerabilities that it shows as a consequence of the long political, social and economic crisis that has been suffered.
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Temas de Coyuntura n.º 80-81 (2019-2020) by Demetrio Marotta Lanzieri
Temas de Coyuntura, 2020
Autores: Demetrio Marotta, Luis Lauriño, Luis Zambrano Sequín
Español
En este trabajo se sintet... more Autores: Demetrio Marotta, Luis Lauriño, Luis Zambrano Sequín
Español
En este trabajo se sintetizan los principales impactos, retos y dilemas que los recientes cambios tecnológicos están generando sobre el mercado de trabajo, los sistemas de protección social y las políticas públicas que tienen que ver con estas áreas. Particular interés se presta al caso venezolano, en virtud de la escasa atención que hasta ahora se ha prestado a esta problemática a pesar de las importantes vulnerabilidades que muestra como consecuencia de la larga crisis política, social y económica que se padece.
Palabras clave: Revolución industrial, cambios tecnológicos, mercado laboral, Venezuela.
English
This paper summarizes the main impacts, challenges and dilemmas that the recent technological changes are generating on the labor market, social protection systems and public policies that have to do with these areas. Particular interest is given to the Venezuelan case, due to the limited attention that has been given to these problems so far despite the significant vulnerabilities that it shows as a consequence of the long political, social and economic crisis that has been suffered.
Keywords: Industrial revolution, technological changes, labor market, Venezuela.
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Informes de coyuntura y perspectivas Venezuela by Demetrio Marotta Lanzieri
Informe de Coyuntura Venezuela, 2024
La economía venezolana se ha desenvuelto en 2024 de manera muy distinta al comparar el primer y e... more La economía venezolana se ha desenvuelto en 2024 de manera muy distinta al comparar el primer y el segundo semestre. La primera parte del año se caracterizó por un crecimiento económico relativamente elevado. Pero en la segunda parte, la dinámica política-institucional, generada a partir del evento electoral de julio, ha afectado negativamente las expectativas, entrando la economía en una nueva fase recesiva.
Como consecuencia, la presión sobre el tipo de cambio se ha incrementado y es de esperar que la tasa de inflación se acelere en el último trimestre del año. Ha esto hay que añadir una mayor presión fiscal sobre los agregados monetarios y financieros, en un contexto donde sigue prevaleciendo la dominancia fiscal sobre el diseño y gestión de toda la política económica.
La inestabilidad política y la incertidumbre económica pueden incrementarse de manera significativa en la medida que nos acerquemos a la fecha en la que debe comenzar un nuevo período presidencial (enero de 2025).
The Venezuelan economy shows two different
trends in 2024. During the first half of the year, it
grows at a relatively high speed. However, in its
second semester, the political-institutional dynamics resulting from the electoral event of last July
seems to be negatively affecting expectations and
causing the beginning of a new recessive phase.
As a result, pressures on the exchange rate have
accentuated, as well as its pass through the inflation rate in the last quarter of the year. To
this adds a greater fiscal pressure on monetary
and financial aggregates, in a context in which
fiscal dominance still prevails over the design and management of the economic policy.
Furthermore, political instability and economic uncertainty may increase significantly as the date on which a new presidential
term must begin (January 2025) approaches.
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Informe de Coyuntura Venezuela Octubre, 2024
The Venezuelan economy shows two different trends in 2024. During the first half of the year, it ... more The Venezuelan economy shows two different trends in 2024. During the first half of the year, it grows at a relatively high speed. However, in its
second semester, the political-institutional dynamics resulting from the electoral event of last July seems to be negatively affecting expectations and causing the beginning of a new recessive phase.
As a result, pressures on the exchange rate have accentuated, as well as its pass through the inflation rate in the last quarter of the year. To
this adds a greater fiscal pressure on monetary and financial aggregates, in a context in which fiscal dominance still prevails over the design
and management of the economic policy.
Furthermore, political instability and economic uncertainty may increase significantly as the date on which a new presidential term must begin (January 2025) approaches.
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Serie de Informes de Coyunturas IIES-UCAB, 2024
Resumen
La evolución de la economía venezolana en 2024 es bastante difícil de predecir, dada la i... more Resumen
La evolución de la economía venezolana en 2024 es bastante difícil de predecir, dada la incertidumbre asociada al desenvolvimiento de los múltiples factores, internos y externos, que seguramente van a determinar el comportamiento de la coyuntura económica, social y política.
En el transcurso de este primer trimestre, las expectativas sobre el desempeño del sector petrolero y la gestión del gasto público se han modificado sustancialmente, afectando negativamente a la actividad económica interna.
El bajo nivel de la demanda agregada doméstica y lo poco expansiva que ha sido la gestión fiscal, a la par del incremento en el ingreso de divisas de origen petrolero, han permitido que se hallan logrado avances en la estabilización de los precios y el tipo de cambio nominal. Sin embargo, Venezuela sigue siendo uno de los países más inflacionarios del mundo, con un acentuado problema de pobreza y desigualdad socio-económica. Debemos reiterar que, sin reformas estructurales, será difícil avanzar en la estabilización y en ruta de un crecimiento sostenido.
En todo caso, en lo que queda de 2024, el comportamiento de la economía dependerá, en lo fundamental, de la estabilidad política interna, la intensidad con la que se apliquen las sanciones internacionales y el riguroso control del financiamiento monetario del déficit del sector público.
Abstract
The evolution of the Venezuelan economy in 2024 is quite difficult to predict, given the uncertainty associated with the development of multiple factors, internal and external, that will surely determine the behavior of the economic, social and political situation.
Over the course of this first quarter, expectations regarding the performance of the oil sector and the management of the public spending have changed substantially, affecting negatively the domestic economic activity.
The low level of the domestic aggregate demand and the lack of expansionary fiscal policies, as well as the increase in the income coming from oil exports, have contributed to the stabilization of prices and the nominal exchange rate. However, Venezuela remains one of the most inflationary countries in the world, with substantial poverty issues and strong socio-economic inequality. It should be emphasized that, without structural reforms, it will be difficult for the country to gain stabilization and to return towards a path of sustained growth.
All things considered, the behavior of the economy in the remainder of 2024 will depend, fundamentally, on internal political stability, the intensity with which international sanctions are applied and the rigorous control of the monetary financing of the public sector deficit.
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Uploads
Papers by Demetrio Marotta Lanzieri
This report shows the recent and projected evolution of the main macroeconomic aggregates that characterize the Venezuelan economy, in the context of a more complicated scenario than in previous periods due to the effects of COVID-19, in addition to imbalances pre-existing. The report evaluates and projects the macroeconomic aggregates assuming that there are no significant changes in the formulation and execution of current economic policy. In this edition new sections are incorporated that deal separately with issues related to the real economy, the informal economy, the policy of monetary income transfers and the situation of Venezuela in the global context of control and eradication of the pandemic.
This report shows the recent and projected evolution of the main macroeconomic aggregates that characterize the Venezuelan economy, in the context of a more complicated scenario than in previous periods due to the effects of COVID-19, in addition to imbalances pre-existing. The report evaluates and projects the macroeconomic aggregates assuming that there are no significant changes in the formulation and execution of current economic policy. In this edition new sections are incorporated that deal separately with issues related to the real economy, the informal economy, the policy of monetary income transfers and the situation of Venezuela in the global context of control and eradication of the pandemic.
This report shows the recent and probable evolution of the main macroeconomic aggregates that characterize the Venezuelan economy, assuming that no significant changes take place in the current economic policy. This edition includes new sections that treat separately issues related to the financial system, the labor market, and the level and distribution of income.
En este trabajo se sintetizan los principales impactos, retos y dilemas que los recientes cambios tecnológicos están generando sobre el mercado de trabajo, los sistemas de protección social y las políticas públicas que tienen que ver con estas áreas. Particular interés se presta al caso venezolano, en virtud de la escasa atención que hasta ahora se ha prestado a esta problemática a pesar de las importantes vulnerabilidades que muestra como consecuencia de la larga crisis política, social y económica que se padece.
Abstract:
This paper summarizes the main impacts, challenges and dilemmas that the recent technological changes are generating on the labor market, social protection systems and public policies that have to do with these areas. Particular interest is given to the Venezuelan case, due to the limited attention that has been given to these problems so far despite the significant vulnerabilities that it shows as a consequence of the long political, social and economic crisis that has been suffered.
Drafts by Demetrio Marotta Lanzieri
Working Papers by Demetrio Marotta Lanzieri
This report shows the recent and projected evolution of the main macroeconomic aggregates that characterize the Venezuelan economy, in the context of a more complicated scenario than in previous periods due to the effects of COVID-19, in addition to imbalances pre-existing. The report evaluates and projects the macroeconomic aggregates assuming that there are no significant changes in the formulation and execution of current economic policy. In this edition new sections are incorporated that deal separately with issues related to the real economy, the informal economy, the policy of monetary income transfers and the situation of Venezuela in the global context of control and eradication of the pandemic.
En este trabajo se sintetizan los principales impactos, retos y dilemas que los re-cientes cambios tecnológicos están generando sobre el mercado de trabajo, los sistemas de protección social y las políticas públicas que tienen que ver con estas áreas. Particular interés se presta al caso venezolano, en virtud de la escasa atención que hasta ahora se ha prestado a esta problemática a pesar de las importantes vulnerabilidades que muestra como consecuencia de la larga crisis política, social y económica que se padece.
Abstract:
This paper summarizes the main impacts, challenges and dilemmas that the recent technological changes are generating on the labor market, social protection systems and public policies that have to do with these areas. Particular interest is given to the Venezuelan case, due to the limited attention that has been given to these problems so far despite the significant vulnerabilities that it shows as a consequence of the long political, social and economic crisis that has been suffered.
Temas de Coyuntura n.º 80-81 (2019-2020) by Demetrio Marotta Lanzieri
Español
En este trabajo se sintetizan los principales impactos, retos y dilemas que los recientes cambios tecnológicos están generando sobre el mercado de trabajo, los sistemas de protección social y las políticas públicas que tienen que ver con estas áreas. Particular interés se presta al caso venezolano, en virtud de la escasa atención que hasta ahora se ha prestado a esta problemática a pesar de las importantes vulnerabilidades que muestra como consecuencia de la larga crisis política, social y económica que se padece.
Palabras clave: Revolución industrial, cambios tecnológicos, mercado laboral, Venezuela.
English
This paper summarizes the main impacts, challenges and dilemmas that the recent technological changes are generating on the labor market, social protection systems and public policies that have to do with these areas. Particular interest is given to the Venezuelan case, due to the limited attention that has been given to these problems so far despite the significant vulnerabilities that it shows as a consequence of the long political, social and economic crisis that has been suffered.
Keywords: Industrial revolution, technological changes, labor market, Venezuela.
Informes de coyuntura y perspectivas Venezuela by Demetrio Marotta Lanzieri
Como consecuencia, la presión sobre el tipo de cambio se ha incrementado y es de esperar que la tasa de inflación se acelere en el último trimestre del año. Ha esto hay que añadir una mayor presión fiscal sobre los agregados monetarios y financieros, en un contexto donde sigue prevaleciendo la dominancia fiscal sobre el diseño y gestión de toda la política económica.
La inestabilidad política y la incertidumbre económica pueden incrementarse de manera significativa en la medida que nos acerquemos a la fecha en la que debe comenzar un nuevo período presidencial (enero de 2025).
The Venezuelan economy shows two different
trends in 2024. During the first half of the year, it
grows at a relatively high speed. However, in its
second semester, the political-institutional dynamics resulting from the electoral event of last July
seems to be negatively affecting expectations and
causing the beginning of a new recessive phase.
As a result, pressures on the exchange rate have
accentuated, as well as its pass through the inflation rate in the last quarter of the year. To
this adds a greater fiscal pressure on monetary
and financial aggregates, in a context in which
fiscal dominance still prevails over the design and management of the economic policy.
Furthermore, political instability and economic uncertainty may increase significantly as the date on which a new presidential
term must begin (January 2025) approaches.
second semester, the political-institutional dynamics resulting from the electoral event of last July seems to be negatively affecting expectations and causing the beginning of a new recessive phase.
As a result, pressures on the exchange rate have accentuated, as well as its pass through the inflation rate in the last quarter of the year. To
this adds a greater fiscal pressure on monetary and financial aggregates, in a context in which fiscal dominance still prevails over the design
and management of the economic policy.
Furthermore, political instability and economic uncertainty may increase significantly as the date on which a new presidential term must begin (January 2025) approaches.
La evolución de la economía venezolana en 2024 es bastante difícil de predecir, dada la incertidumbre asociada al desenvolvimiento de los múltiples factores, internos y externos, que seguramente van a determinar el comportamiento de la coyuntura económica, social y política.
En el transcurso de este primer trimestre, las expectativas sobre el desempeño del sector petrolero y la gestión del gasto público se han modificado sustancialmente, afectando negativamente a la actividad económica interna.
El bajo nivel de la demanda agregada doméstica y lo poco expansiva que ha sido la gestión fiscal, a la par del incremento en el ingreso de divisas de origen petrolero, han permitido que se hallan logrado avances en la estabilización de los precios y el tipo de cambio nominal. Sin embargo, Venezuela sigue siendo uno de los países más inflacionarios del mundo, con un acentuado problema de pobreza y desigualdad socio-económica. Debemos reiterar que, sin reformas estructurales, será difícil avanzar en la estabilización y en ruta de un crecimiento sostenido.
En todo caso, en lo que queda de 2024, el comportamiento de la economía dependerá, en lo fundamental, de la estabilidad política interna, la intensidad con la que se apliquen las sanciones internacionales y el riguroso control del financiamiento monetario del déficit del sector público.
Abstract
The evolution of the Venezuelan economy in 2024 is quite difficult to predict, given the uncertainty associated with the development of multiple factors, internal and external, that will surely determine the behavior of the economic, social and political situation.
Over the course of this first quarter, expectations regarding the performance of the oil sector and the management of the public spending have changed substantially, affecting negatively the domestic economic activity.
The low level of the domestic aggregate demand and the lack of expansionary fiscal policies, as well as the increase in the income coming from oil exports, have contributed to the stabilization of prices and the nominal exchange rate. However, Venezuela remains one of the most inflationary countries in the world, with substantial poverty issues and strong socio-economic inequality. It should be emphasized that, without structural reforms, it will be difficult for the country to gain stabilization and to return towards a path of sustained growth.
All things considered, the behavior of the economy in the remainder of 2024 will depend, fundamentally, on internal political stability, the intensity with which international sanctions are applied and the rigorous control of the monetary financing of the public sector deficit.
This report shows the recent and projected evolution of the main macroeconomic aggregates that characterize the Venezuelan economy, in the context of a more complicated scenario than in previous periods due to the effects of COVID-19, in addition to imbalances pre-existing. The report evaluates and projects the macroeconomic aggregates assuming that there are no significant changes in the formulation and execution of current economic policy. In this edition new sections are incorporated that deal separately with issues related to the real economy, the informal economy, the policy of monetary income transfers and the situation of Venezuela in the global context of control and eradication of the pandemic.
This report shows the recent and projected evolution of the main macroeconomic aggregates that characterize the Venezuelan economy, in the context of a more complicated scenario than in previous periods due to the effects of COVID-19, in addition to imbalances pre-existing. The report evaluates and projects the macroeconomic aggregates assuming that there are no significant changes in the formulation and execution of current economic policy. In this edition new sections are incorporated that deal separately with issues related to the real economy, the informal economy, the policy of monetary income transfers and the situation of Venezuela in the global context of control and eradication of the pandemic.
This report shows the recent and probable evolution of the main macroeconomic aggregates that characterize the Venezuelan economy, assuming that no significant changes take place in the current economic policy. This edition includes new sections that treat separately issues related to the financial system, the labor market, and the level and distribution of income.
En este trabajo se sintetizan los principales impactos, retos y dilemas que los recientes cambios tecnológicos están generando sobre el mercado de trabajo, los sistemas de protección social y las políticas públicas que tienen que ver con estas áreas. Particular interés se presta al caso venezolano, en virtud de la escasa atención que hasta ahora se ha prestado a esta problemática a pesar de las importantes vulnerabilidades que muestra como consecuencia de la larga crisis política, social y económica que se padece.
Abstract:
This paper summarizes the main impacts, challenges and dilemmas that the recent technological changes are generating on the labor market, social protection systems and public policies that have to do with these areas. Particular interest is given to the Venezuelan case, due to the limited attention that has been given to these problems so far despite the significant vulnerabilities that it shows as a consequence of the long political, social and economic crisis that has been suffered.
This report shows the recent and projected evolution of the main macroeconomic aggregates that characterize the Venezuelan economy, in the context of a more complicated scenario than in previous periods due to the effects of COVID-19, in addition to imbalances pre-existing. The report evaluates and projects the macroeconomic aggregates assuming that there are no significant changes in the formulation and execution of current economic policy. In this edition new sections are incorporated that deal separately with issues related to the real economy, the informal economy, the policy of monetary income transfers and the situation of Venezuela in the global context of control and eradication of the pandemic.
En este trabajo se sintetizan los principales impactos, retos y dilemas que los re-cientes cambios tecnológicos están generando sobre el mercado de trabajo, los sistemas de protección social y las políticas públicas que tienen que ver con estas áreas. Particular interés se presta al caso venezolano, en virtud de la escasa atención que hasta ahora se ha prestado a esta problemática a pesar de las importantes vulnerabilidades que muestra como consecuencia de la larga crisis política, social y económica que se padece.
Abstract:
This paper summarizes the main impacts, challenges and dilemmas that the recent technological changes are generating on the labor market, social protection systems and public policies that have to do with these areas. Particular interest is given to the Venezuelan case, due to the limited attention that has been given to these problems so far despite the significant vulnerabilities that it shows as a consequence of the long political, social and economic crisis that has been suffered.
Español
En este trabajo se sintetizan los principales impactos, retos y dilemas que los recientes cambios tecnológicos están generando sobre el mercado de trabajo, los sistemas de protección social y las políticas públicas que tienen que ver con estas áreas. Particular interés se presta al caso venezolano, en virtud de la escasa atención que hasta ahora se ha prestado a esta problemática a pesar de las importantes vulnerabilidades que muestra como consecuencia de la larga crisis política, social y económica que se padece.
Palabras clave: Revolución industrial, cambios tecnológicos, mercado laboral, Venezuela.
English
This paper summarizes the main impacts, challenges and dilemmas that the recent technological changes are generating on the labor market, social protection systems and public policies that have to do with these areas. Particular interest is given to the Venezuelan case, due to the limited attention that has been given to these problems so far despite the significant vulnerabilities that it shows as a consequence of the long political, social and economic crisis that has been suffered.
Keywords: Industrial revolution, technological changes, labor market, Venezuela.
Como consecuencia, la presión sobre el tipo de cambio se ha incrementado y es de esperar que la tasa de inflación se acelere en el último trimestre del año. Ha esto hay que añadir una mayor presión fiscal sobre los agregados monetarios y financieros, en un contexto donde sigue prevaleciendo la dominancia fiscal sobre el diseño y gestión de toda la política económica.
La inestabilidad política y la incertidumbre económica pueden incrementarse de manera significativa en la medida que nos acerquemos a la fecha en la que debe comenzar un nuevo período presidencial (enero de 2025).
The Venezuelan economy shows two different
trends in 2024. During the first half of the year, it
grows at a relatively high speed. However, in its
second semester, the political-institutional dynamics resulting from the electoral event of last July
seems to be negatively affecting expectations and
causing the beginning of a new recessive phase.
As a result, pressures on the exchange rate have
accentuated, as well as its pass through the inflation rate in the last quarter of the year. To
this adds a greater fiscal pressure on monetary
and financial aggregates, in a context in which
fiscal dominance still prevails over the design and management of the economic policy.
Furthermore, political instability and economic uncertainty may increase significantly as the date on which a new presidential
term must begin (January 2025) approaches.
second semester, the political-institutional dynamics resulting from the electoral event of last July seems to be negatively affecting expectations and causing the beginning of a new recessive phase.
As a result, pressures on the exchange rate have accentuated, as well as its pass through the inflation rate in the last quarter of the year. To
this adds a greater fiscal pressure on monetary and financial aggregates, in a context in which fiscal dominance still prevails over the design
and management of the economic policy.
Furthermore, political instability and economic uncertainty may increase significantly as the date on which a new presidential term must begin (January 2025) approaches.
La evolución de la economía venezolana en 2024 es bastante difícil de predecir, dada la incertidumbre asociada al desenvolvimiento de los múltiples factores, internos y externos, que seguramente van a determinar el comportamiento de la coyuntura económica, social y política.
En el transcurso de este primer trimestre, las expectativas sobre el desempeño del sector petrolero y la gestión del gasto público se han modificado sustancialmente, afectando negativamente a la actividad económica interna.
El bajo nivel de la demanda agregada doméstica y lo poco expansiva que ha sido la gestión fiscal, a la par del incremento en el ingreso de divisas de origen petrolero, han permitido que se hallan logrado avances en la estabilización de los precios y el tipo de cambio nominal. Sin embargo, Venezuela sigue siendo uno de los países más inflacionarios del mundo, con un acentuado problema de pobreza y desigualdad socio-económica. Debemos reiterar que, sin reformas estructurales, será difícil avanzar en la estabilización y en ruta de un crecimiento sostenido.
En todo caso, en lo que queda de 2024, el comportamiento de la economía dependerá, en lo fundamental, de la estabilidad política interna, la intensidad con la que se apliquen las sanciones internacionales y el riguroso control del financiamiento monetario del déficit del sector público.
Abstract
The evolution of the Venezuelan economy in 2024 is quite difficult to predict, given the uncertainty associated with the development of multiple factors, internal and external, that will surely determine the behavior of the economic, social and political situation.
Over the course of this first quarter, expectations regarding the performance of the oil sector and the management of the public spending have changed substantially, affecting negatively the domestic economic activity.
The low level of the domestic aggregate demand and the lack of expansionary fiscal policies, as well as the increase in the income coming from oil exports, have contributed to the stabilization of prices and the nominal exchange rate. However, Venezuela remains one of the most inflationary countries in the world, with substantial poverty issues and strong socio-economic inequality. It should be emphasized that, without structural reforms, it will be difficult for the country to gain stabilization and to return towards a path of sustained growth.
All things considered, the behavior of the economy in the remainder of 2024 will depend, fundamentally, on internal political stability, the intensity with which international sanctions are applied and the rigorous control of the monetary financing of the public sector deficit.
Para 2024 se espera que la tasa de crecimiento de la economía mejore sobre la base de una mayor actividad en el sector petrolero y una expansión del gasto público y privado asociado al desarrollo del ciclo político-electoral.
During 2023, the Venezuelan economy has been developing in less favorable conditions than initially expected. The production and export of hydrocarbons increased, but at lower levels than the announced goals. The activity of the non-oil sector was negatively affected by the deterioration of expectations for the growth of domestic aggregate demand, both public and private. The inflation rate increased, compared to that registered in 2022, and the bolivar continued to devalue, but less than the increase of internal prices. The moderate growth in oil tax revenues and adjustments in public sector spending reduced the need for the public sector’s central bank financing, which contributed to moderating the evolution of monetary aggregates. Although the banking credit increased, it is still insufficient to satisfy the demand of the productive sector. The central bank has continued to use the exchange rate as a nominal anchor for internal prices, intervening frequently, but less intensely, in the foreign exchange market.
In 2024, the growth rate of the economy is expected to improve based on the greater activity in the oil sector and the expansion of public and private spending associated with the development of the political-electoral cycle.
After seven and a half years of contraction, the Venezuelan economy experienced slight growth during the second half of 2021 and the first half of 2022. This change in the behavior of economic activity was promoted by an increase in private sector spending, encouraged due to overcoming the effects of COVID-19, the de facto lifting of price controls and the exchange rate and an improvement in oil prices. The pace of economic activity began to weaken rapidly from the second half of 2022, as a result of the monetary boost generated by the salary compensation that the Government granted to the public education sector. The increase in the issuance of money, in a context of low credibility in the local currency, fostered the inflationary expectations and, naturally, ended up depreciating the exchange rate and thereby increasing inflationary pressures. Additionally, the pre-existing restrictions from the supply side (deterioration of infrastructure and basic services, institutional dismantling, legal insecurity, absence of bank credit, etc.) showed that the conditions for generating a growth rate that can be sustained are precarious.
This report shows the recent evolution of the main macroeconomic aggregates that characterize the Venezuelan economy in the context of a post-COVID-19 scenario. The modest improvement in growth observed in the second half of 2021 and the first quarter of this year shows a slowing trend, that highlights the persistence of significant macroeconomic imbalances. This, together with a less favorable international economic context, allows us to infer a less optimistic 2023 growth outlook and a still high level of inflation, although lower than the expected for this year. Likewise, the report's evaluation and forecasting of the main macroeconomic aggregates considers some of the most recent changes in economic policy. A section that addresses the issue of the impact of the pandemic on the labor market is also included in this edition.