Papers by Jesse Burton
The paper reports on findings of a technical analysis of the potential risks and uncertainties of... more The paper reports on findings of a technical analysis of the potential risks and uncertainties of the commitment to SA’s proposed nuclear build plan. This commitment is compared to a more flexible planning approach that aims to minimise costs. It includes three main tiers of analysis:
· two alternative futures reveal the implications of different investment strategies;
· the socioeconomic impacts of the commitment to nuclear power versus a flexible planning approach in each of these futures is modelled;
· the risks to the economy and consumers of an electricity price rise.
Under specific conditions the nuclear decision is not likely to have a negative impact on the South African economy; under other conditions, the negative effect would be significant.
South Africa’s coal-dominated electricity sector, a key feature of the country’s minerals-energy ... more South Africa’s coal-dominated electricity sector, a key feature of the country’s minerals-energy complex, is in crisis and subject to change. This offers potential opportunities for decarbonisation. Despite positive examples of decarbonisation in South Africa’s electricity sector, such as a procurement programme for renewable energy, there are structural path dependencies around coal-fired generation and security of supply. Decarbonisation goes far beyond what is technologically or even economically feasible, to encompass a complexity of political, social and economic factors. Meanwhile, decision-making in electricity is highly politicised and lack of transparency and power struggles in the policy sphere are key challenges to decarbonisation. Such power struggles are reflected in national debates over which technologies should be prioritised and which institutional arrangements should facilitate them.
South Africa is planning to expand coal–related infrastructure, including electricity generation ... more South Africa is planning to expand coal–related infrastructure, including electricity generation , mine and rail infrastructure. Drivers of investment in new coal fields include security of coal supply for Eskom, and also include political support for enhanced Black Economic Empowerment. Rail infrastructure expansion and changes in global coal demand could impact the domestic coal industry significantly. The inconsistencies between new coal investments and South Africa’s climate mitigation objectives are unpacked and the emissions compared. If coal infrastructure plans are implemented, it is likely that South Africa will exceed its implicit carbon budget. The impact of lower cost coal supply will have market impacts domestically and in export end markets. Further work is needed on indirect emissions, which are currently not accounted for by decision-makers.
Conference presentations by Jesse Burton
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Papers by Jesse Burton
· two alternative futures reveal the implications of different investment strategies;
· the socioeconomic impacts of the commitment to nuclear power versus a flexible planning approach in each of these futures is modelled;
· the risks to the economy and consumers of an electricity price rise.
Under specific conditions the nuclear decision is not likely to have a negative impact on the South African economy; under other conditions, the negative effect would be significant.
Conference presentations by Jesse Burton
· two alternative futures reveal the implications of different investment strategies;
· the socioeconomic impacts of the commitment to nuclear power versus a flexible planning approach in each of these futures is modelled;
· the risks to the economy and consumers of an electricity price rise.
Under specific conditions the nuclear decision is not likely to have a negative impact on the South African economy; under other conditions, the negative effect would be significant.