Arno Tausch
Arno Tausch was born on February 11, 1951 in Salzburg, Austria. As of May 1, 2022, he became Visiting Professor of Political Studies and Governance at the University of the Free State in Bloemfontein, South Africa. He was Honorary Associate Professor of Economics, Corvinus University, Budapest, Hungary (since Fall Semester 2010) and is Adjunct Professor (Universitaetsdozent) of Political Science at Innsbruck University, Department of Political Science, Innsbruck University, Austria (since 1988).
He entered the Austrian Civil Service on January 1, 1992, and retired from active service on February 29, 2016. He served as an Austrian diplomat abroad and was Attaché, and later Counselor for Labor and Migration at the Austrian Embassy in Warsaw, 1992-1999. In that capacity, he was deeply involved in the democratic transformation of Poland and in the assessment of all major social and migration policy aspects of the Polish accession to the European Union with Polish partner institutions. He also closely worked with his fellow labor and migration attaches from other Western countries in Warsaw, in particular the representatives of the Delegation of the European Commission and the Embassies of France, Germany, the United States of America, and the United Nations Development Programme and the UNHCR in Warsaw.
In his multiple academic assignments, stretching over a time span of four decades, he was first Assistant Professor and then Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at Innsbruck University; Associate Visiting Professor of Political Science at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1990, and Guest Researcher, International Institute for Comparative Social Research, Science Center, West Berlin, upon invitation by the late Karl Wolfgang Deutsch, Stanfield Professor of International Peace at Harvard University (1981). Since 1978, he taught numerous regular courses in political science, economics and sociology at Universities in Austria, Hungary, Switzerland and in the United States.
He has authored or co-authored books and articles for major international publishers and journals, including 30 books in English, 2 books in French, 9 books in German, and currently 118 articles in peer-reviewed journals, 31 articles in edited volumes, and numerous press articles in the media of several countries. In total, his works have been published or republished in 33 countries around the world: Argentina, Australia, Austria, Canada, China, Costa Rica, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, India, Iran, Ireland, Israel, Iraq, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Pakistan, Poland, Qatar, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States.
His publications include a number of essays for leading economic and foreign policy global think tanks like the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), Tel Aviv, Israel; the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, Israel, the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS Institute), Moscow; the Polish Institute for International Affairs PISM, Warsaw; and the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, WIIW.
Other think tanks, which published his works, include
• Austrian Institute for International Affairs, Vienna (ÖIIP);
• Austrian National Defence Academy (Vienna), LAVAK;
• Centre Franco-Autrichien pour le rapprochement en Europe CFA/OeFZ, Vienne ;
• Centro Argentino de Estudios Internacionales, CAEI, Buenos Aires;
• Insight Turkey and the SETA Foundation, Ankara;
• IZA Institute for the Study of Labour, Bonn, FRG;
• Jean Monnet Chairs of the European Union https://eacea.ec.europa.eu/erasmus-plus/actions/jean-monnet/jean-monnet-chairs_en (Jean Monnet Chairs at the University of Catania, Sicily; Italy, Trier, FRG; and Wroclaw, Poland)
• Luxembourg Institute for European and International Studies, LIEIS;
• Rubin Center in International Affairs (formerly Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center) in Herzliya, Israel
His publications feature(d) as recommended materials for courses at major Universities and centers of higher learning around the world, including the School of International Service, American University, Washington D.C.; and Harvard University.
Major electronic English language publications are freely accessible from the World Systems Archive at the University of California, Riverside; from IDEAS/REPEC at the University of Connecticut; and from SSRN, the Social Science Research Network in New York, N.Y. Dr. Tausch, a liberal and active Roman Catholic, is a participant in the liberation theology movement and in the ecumenical dialogue between the major world religions since the 1970s.
Dr. Tausch is married to Krystyna Tausch. The couple has three daughters.
Available book publications: http://www.amazon.com
He entered the Austrian Civil Service on January 1, 1992, and retired from active service on February 29, 2016. He served as an Austrian diplomat abroad and was Attaché, and later Counselor for Labor and Migration at the Austrian Embassy in Warsaw, 1992-1999. In that capacity, he was deeply involved in the democratic transformation of Poland and in the assessment of all major social and migration policy aspects of the Polish accession to the European Union with Polish partner institutions. He also closely worked with his fellow labor and migration attaches from other Western countries in Warsaw, in particular the representatives of the Delegation of the European Commission and the Embassies of France, Germany, the United States of America, and the United Nations Development Programme and the UNHCR in Warsaw.
In his multiple academic assignments, stretching over a time span of four decades, he was first Assistant Professor and then Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at Innsbruck University; Associate Visiting Professor of Political Science at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1990, and Guest Researcher, International Institute for Comparative Social Research, Science Center, West Berlin, upon invitation by the late Karl Wolfgang Deutsch, Stanfield Professor of International Peace at Harvard University (1981). Since 1978, he taught numerous regular courses in political science, economics and sociology at Universities in Austria, Hungary, Switzerland and in the United States.
He has authored or co-authored books and articles for major international publishers and journals, including 30 books in English, 2 books in French, 9 books in German, and currently 118 articles in peer-reviewed journals, 31 articles in edited volumes, and numerous press articles in the media of several countries. In total, his works have been published or republished in 33 countries around the world: Argentina, Australia, Austria, Canada, China, Costa Rica, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, India, Iran, Ireland, Israel, Iraq, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Pakistan, Poland, Qatar, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States.
His publications include a number of essays for leading economic and foreign policy global think tanks like the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), Tel Aviv, Israel; the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, Israel, the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS Institute), Moscow; the Polish Institute for International Affairs PISM, Warsaw; and the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, WIIW.
Other think tanks, which published his works, include
• Austrian Institute for International Affairs, Vienna (ÖIIP);
• Austrian National Defence Academy (Vienna), LAVAK;
• Centre Franco-Autrichien pour le rapprochement en Europe CFA/OeFZ, Vienne ;
• Centro Argentino de Estudios Internacionales, CAEI, Buenos Aires;
• Insight Turkey and the SETA Foundation, Ankara;
• IZA Institute for the Study of Labour, Bonn, FRG;
• Jean Monnet Chairs of the European Union https://eacea.ec.europa.eu/erasmus-plus/actions/jean-monnet/jean-monnet-chairs_en (Jean Monnet Chairs at the University of Catania, Sicily; Italy, Trier, FRG; and Wroclaw, Poland)
• Luxembourg Institute for European and International Studies, LIEIS;
• Rubin Center in International Affairs (formerly Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center) in Herzliya, Israel
His publications feature(d) as recommended materials for courses at major Universities and centers of higher learning around the world, including the School of International Service, American University, Washington D.C.; and Harvard University.
Major electronic English language publications are freely accessible from the World Systems Archive at the University of California, Riverside; from IDEAS/REPEC at the University of Connecticut; and from SSRN, the Social Science Research Network in New York, N.Y. Dr. Tausch, a liberal and active Roman Catholic, is a participant in the liberation theology movement and in the ecumenical dialogue between the major world religions since the 1970s.
Dr. Tausch is married to Krystyna Tausch. The couple has three daughters.
Available book publications: http://www.amazon.com
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Papers by Arno Tausch
All too many academics and science policy-makers around the world are still unaware of the market distortions that are unleashed on the world market of ideas by such ranking systems, which are based on purely subjective criteria by a powerful science bureaucracy that manages and distributes scientific resources, as in the case of Norway and its "channel register" of the Norwegian Directorate for Higher Education and Skills. Similar systems are also used in Denmark, Finland, Flanders, Lithuania, Sweden and South Africa.
The advance of such "channel registers" means that the publications of the scientific community are evaluated according to points for the funding allocated by the state to the scientific institutes, but also for the further career opportunities of the scientists. A first and really hard test for such systems as the "channel register" is to ask how those who have done everything right in the social science community that there is to do right, namely the Nobel laureates in economics and the Skytte laureates in political science, would have fared in terms of the evaluation of their publications according to the "channel register". Our sobering finding for the last five years is: in their publishing behaviour, they have demonstrably been most successful in reaching world markets with publishing companies, the majority of which (52%) were not even rated at the best level "2" in the "Channel Register".
10 of the 16 laureates in the social sciences in the past five years published deficiently according to the criteria of the Norwegian "Channel Register"; namely:
1. Joshua D. Angrist
2. Guido W. Imbens
3 Margaret Levi
4 Abhijit Banerjee
5 Esther Duflo
6. Michael Kremer
7 Jane Mansbridge
8. William D. Nordhaus
9. Paul R. Romer
10 Richard H. Thaler
Our alternative and empirical analysis of 100 leading publishers in the world is based on the following variables:
• Google Scholar presence according to the CERES Institute at Erasmus University Rotterdam
• Presence in the Open Syllabus system
• OCLC WorldCat presence > 50 libraries (% of total 2010-2023)
• OCLC WorldCat presence > 500 libraries (% of total production 2010-2023)
Our calculation method for ranking the 100 publishers is based on a so-called non-parametric index modelled on the United Nations Human Development Index.
In our ranking, Oxford University Press leads ahead of John Wiley, Cambridge University Press, Quorum Books and MIT Press. Ranked further down is the performance of Palgrave Macmillan, a very popular publishing company especially in the political science community, which is ranked not far ahead of Cambridge Scholars Publishers and Nova Science Publishers. It is strongly emphasised on the part of the author that all the publishing companies surveyed have done an excellent job and that our ranking is merely an indicator of which companies are really leading in the world markets.
We also consider some implications for the field of political science, where the 62 major political science publishers we surveyed represented no less than 31% of the total supply. It is clear that Routledge, Palgrave Macmillan, Cambridge University Press, Oxford University Press, Peter Lang, Sage Publications, Nova Science Publishers, Princeton University Press, John Wiley and Cornell University Press are the leading publishing companies in the field of political science worldwide. Finally, we also show how benchmarks can be formed for the assessment of publishing companies that have not yet been included in our comparison. For the companies with their corporate headquarters in continental Europe, our comparison shows that - presumably due to the still deficient distribution systems on the North American continent - there is still a certain deficit in the degree of distribution especially in the North American markets.
Keywords: Bibliometrics, OCLC Worldcat, CERES, Erasmus University, Open Syllabus, Google Scholar, Ranking of publishing companies
JEL Classification: F6, Y8, Z1
cycles (K-cycles) by the NATO Institute of Advanced
Studies has pushed the issue of their relevance beyond
the narrow confines of left-wing policy debates. In
this article, we use econometric methods to analyse a
large body of empirical data from 117 countries to
show the validity of Kondratieff's concept. For this
purpose, we use spectral analysis methods and
calculate autocorrelation and cross-correlation
coefficients between the growth of global industrial
production, war intensity and the number of military
alliances of states over a long period of time
All too many academics and science policy-makers around the world are still unaware of the market distortions that are unleashed on the world market of ideas by such ranking systems, which are based on purely subjective criteria by a powerful science bureaucracy that manages and distributes scientific resources, as in the case of Norway and its "channel register" of the Norwegian Directorate for Higher Education and Skills. Similar systems are also used in Denmark, Finland, Flanders, Lithuania, Sweden and South Africa.
The advance of such "channel registers" means that the publications of the scientific community are evaluated according to points for the funding allocated by the state to the scientific institutes, but also for the further career opportunities of the scientists. A first and really hard test for such systems as the "channel register" is to ask how those who have done everything right in the social science community that there is to do right, namely the Nobel laureates in economics and the Skytte laureates in political science, would have fared in terms of the evaluation of their publications according to the "channel register". Our sobering finding for the last five years is: in their publishing behaviour, they have demonstrably been most successful in reaching world markets with publishing companies, the majority of which (52%) were not even rated at the best level "2" in the "Channel Register".
10 of the 16 laureates in the social sciences in the past five years published deficiently according to the criteria of the Norwegian "Channel Register"; namely:
1. Joshua D. Angrist
2. Guido W. Imbens
3 Margaret Levi
4 Abhijit Banerjee
5 Esther Duflo
6. Michael Kremer
7 Jane Mansbridge
8. William D. Nordhaus
9. Paul R. Romer
10 Richard H. Thaler
Our alternative and empirical analysis of 100 leading publishers in the world is based on the following variables:
• Google Scholar presence according to the CERES Institute at Erasmus University Rotterdam
• Presence in the Open Syllabus system
• OCLC WorldCat presence > 50 libraries (% of total 2010-2023)
• OCLC WorldCat presence > 500 libraries (% of total production 2010-2023)
Our calculation method for ranking the 100 publishers is based on a so-called non-parametric index modelled on the United Nations Human Development Index.
In our ranking, Oxford University Press leads ahead of John Wiley, Cambridge University Press, Quorum Books and MIT Press. Ranked further down is the performance of Palgrave Macmillan, a very popular publishing company especially in the political science community, which is ranked not far ahead of Cambridge Scholars Publishers and Nova Science Publishers. It is strongly emphasised on the part of the author that all the publishing companies surveyed have done an excellent job and that our ranking is merely an indicator of which companies are really leading in the world markets.
We also consider some implications for the field of political science, where the 62 major political science publishers we surveyed represented no less than 31% of the total supply. It is clear that Routledge, Palgrave Macmillan, Cambridge University Press, Oxford University Press, Peter Lang, Sage Publications, Nova Science Publishers, Princeton University Press, John Wiley and Cornell University Press are the leading publishing companies in the field of political science worldwide. Finally, we also show how benchmarks can be formed for the assessment of publishing companies that have not yet been included in our comparison. For the companies with their corporate headquarters in continental Europe, our comparison shows that - presumably due to the still deficient distribution systems on the North American continent - there is still a certain deficit in the degree of distribution especially in the North American markets.
Keywords: Bibliometrics, OCLC Worldcat, CERES, Erasmus University, Open Syllabus, Google Scholar, Ranking of publishing companies
JEL Classification: F6, Y8, Z1
cycles (K-cycles) by the NATO Institute of Advanced
Studies has pushed the issue of their relevance beyond
the narrow confines of left-wing policy debates. In
this article, we use econometric methods to analyse a
large body of empirical data from 117 countries to
show the validity of Kondratieff's concept. For this
purpose, we use spectral analysis methods and
calculate autocorrelation and cross-correlation
coefficients between the growth of global industrial
production, war intensity and the number of military
alliances of states over a long period of time
Here are some more informations about the book:
This book is intended to provide a new approach to the study of global values and global value change, based on representative international survey data, and above all, the World Values Survey. This theme is of growing interest not only to the international social science community, but also international policymakers and business and financial executives in the framework of international values and business studies.
Blurbs:
In this book Arno Tausch and his co-authors consider the very acute and important problem for the future of global value change. They re-discover the positive contribution of religion for society, and this conclusion is based on the creative analysis of numerous data. This wonderful study is able to change our view of the perspectives of the world economy and world politics.
Professor Alexander Dynkin and Professor Vladimir Pantin, Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Moscow, Authors of “Strategic Global Forecast to 2030” (Magister, 2013), and “A Peaceful Clash: The U.S. and China”, World Futures, Volume 68, 2012: 506 – 517
This book unites in a single system such different (but equally significant) dimensions as economic growth, global values, and Islamic civilization. A remarkably original and provocative analysis. This is a bold book, providing rich comparative insight.
Leonid Grinin, PhD, Senior Research Professor at the Institute for Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vice-President of the International Kondratieff Foundation, Deputy Director of the Eurasian Center for Big History & System Forecasting, and author of “Social Macroevolution. Genesis and Transformations of the World System” (Moscow: Russian Academy of Sciences) and “Macrohistory and Globalization” (Moscow: Moscow State University).
This work is one of the most remarkable and important studies in cross-national analysis in recent years. The new perspective on the evolutionary potentials of Islamic countries offered by the authors is really stimulating. This work will be of great importance for everyone interested in structural patterns of contemporary global development.
Andrey Korotayev, PhD, Head of the Laboratory for Monitoring of Sociopolitical Destabilization Risks of the National Research University, Higher School of Economics, Moscow; Senior Research Professor at the Institute for African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and author of “Ancient Yemen” (Oxford: Oxford University Press) and “Introduction to Social Macrodynamics” (Moscow: Russian Academy of Sciences).
This book is a very necessary reconsideration of the entire question of global values, so well-known in the social and economic sciences ever since the path-breaking publications by Hofsteede, Schwartz and Inglehart. Tausch, Heshmati and Karoui challenge hitherto established interpretations by radically introducing the perspective of the shadow economy and the role of family values for the stability of capitalist development. Their optimistic analysis on the long-term perspectives of the Muslim world is based on an analysis of indicators of economic freedom.
Prof. Dr. Dr.h.c.mult. Friedrich Georg Schneider, Department of Economics, Institute of Economic Policy, Johannes Kepler University of Linz, Austria, author of: The Shadow Economy (together with Colin C.
Williams), London (UK): The Institute of Economic Affairs, 2013; The Shadow Economy: Theoretical Approaches , Empirical Studies, and Political Implications, together with Dominik Enste, Cambridge (UK):
Cambridge University Press, second edition 2013; Handbook on the Shadow Economy, Edward Elgar Publishing Company, Cheltenham, 2011, and over 200 articles in leading peer-reviewed journals of economics.
Coauthors:
Almas Heshmati, a Swedish citizen, is currently Professor of Economics at Jönköping University, Sweden, and Sogang University, Soutth Korea. He held similar positions at the Korea University, Seoul National University, and University of Kurdistan Hawler. He was Research Fellow at the World Institute for Development Economics Research (WIDER), during 2001-2004. From 1998 until 2001, he was an Associate Professor at the Stockholm School of Economics. He has a Ph.D. degree from the University of Gothenburg 1994. His research interests include applied microeconomics, globalization, development strategy, efficiency, productivity and growth with application to manufacturing and services. In addition to more than 120 scientific journal articles he has published books on the EU Lisbon Process, Global Inequality, East Asian Manufacturing, Chinese Economy, Technology Transfer, Information Technology, Water Resources, Landmines, Power Generation, Development Economics and Economic Growth. He is member of the Scientific Committee of the International Conference on Panel Data.
Hichem Karoui, a French citizen, is a researcher at the Diplomatic Institute of the Foreign Office of Qatar. In his academic functions he is a Scholar, and Writer. Research area and interests: International Relations. Regional studies, Middle East North Africa (MENA). He holds a PhD in sociology from the Sorbonne in Paris and three M. A. degrees from the same University (Middle-East/Mediterranean studies, English language, literature and civilization, and Arab language, literature and civilization). From 2011 to 2013, he was Research fellow at the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies (ACRPS) in Doha, Qatar, where he served as Coordinator of the Political Unit and academic supervisor of the website. He published widely in English, French and Arabic since the 1980s and was a frequent commentator for leading newspapers in the Arab world. Books in French: L’après-Saddam en Irak, les plans, les hommes et les problèmes (Post Saddam Iraq, Plans, Men and Problems): Paris: L’Harmattan, 2005; Où va l’Arabie saoudite ? (Where Is Saudi Arabia Heading?) Paris, L’Harmattan; 2006; Les Musulmans… Un cauchemar ou une force pour l’Europe? (en collaboration avec Arno Tausch). Paris: L’Harmattan. 2011; Books in English: From 9/11 to the Arab Spring: U. S. - Saudi Love-Hate Story. Middle East Studies/CreateSpace. South Carolina. 2013; Power Revolving Doors: The Shaping of American Perception of Middle East Studies. Middle East Studies/CreateSpace. South Carolina. 2013; Arab Spring: The New Middle East in the Making (Essays). Middle East Studies/CreateSpace. South Carolina. 2012; The Bush II Years in the Middle East (2000-2008): A Case Study in the Sociology of International Relations. Middle East Studies/CreateSpace. South Carolina. 2012. Books in In Arabic: International Balance, From The Cold War to The Detente. Essay: La Maison arabe du livre. Tunis, 1985; Prolegomena For a Critique of the Arab political Reality. Maison al nawras. Tunis 1988; The Seven Pillars of Madness (a novel), Maison arabe du livre. Tunis. 1984; Nun (a novel), Déméter. Tunis 1983.
Table of Contents:
About this Book pp.vii-x
Biography of Authors pp.xi-xii
Executive Summary pp.1-34
Chapter 1. Background pp.35-80
Chapter 2. The Methodology of this Project pp.81-102
Chapter 3. The Dark Side of Economics: Why it is Good from an Economist’s Perspective that Sociology Starts to Analyse World Values Survey Data on the Shadow Economy and Why Corruption is a Development Impediment pp.103-138
Chapter 4. The Sociological and Psychological Theories of Global Values pp.139-186
Chapter 5. Towards a New Political Geography of Human Values pp.187-266
Chapter 6. The Global Analysis of Feminism and Its Regional Implications for the Muslim World: Voices from Quantitative Social Science and from a Religious Muslim Viewpoint pp.267-296
Chapter 7. Human Values and the “Arab Spring” pp.297-316
Chapter 8. Islamic Values, Knowledge and Morals pp.317-330
Chapter 9. Gretchen, Permissiveness and Economic Growth pp.331-342
Chapter 10. The Implosion of “Self-Expression” in the West and Further Doubts about the Correctness of Inglehart’s Theory in the Light of the New Direct Measurements of Self-Expression Values from the World Values Survey, 2010-2014 pp.343-366
Chapter 11. What the Importance Given to God by Humans Does to Society
(The Way Society Benefits from the Belief in God)pp.367-388
Chapter 12. Hofstede, Schwartz, Inglehart and the Future of World Development pp.389-442
Chapter 13. Themes for Student and Course Participants’ Essays pp.443-444
Literature and Suggested Further Readings pp.4445-492
Index pp.493-520
Series:
Economic Issues, Problems and Perspectives
changes. Due to the research of such famous economists as Nikolay Kondratieff, Joseph
Kitchin, Wesley Mitchell, Simon Kuznets, and Joseph Schumpeter the idea of a whole system
of economic cycles (with characteristic periods between two and sixty years) was developed.
The idea of a system of intertwined economic cycles is nowadays paramount to
the school of evolutionary economics and its development promises rather interesting future
outcomes. That is why this issue of our ‘Kondratieff Waves’ Yearbook is devoted to
the interconnections between various economic cycles.
As to the subtitle of this volume, one should note that many of the contributors refer to the
system of cycles and the fact that real economic cycles make up a system, whereas among
different types of cycles, the Juglar, Kuznets, and Kondratieff cycles are the most important
ones for the present-day economic dynamics.
Although Kondratieff himself considered long waves as above all an economic phenomenon,
the theory of the long waves became, however, very actively developed in connection
with their political and geopolitical aspects. In this Yearbook, the political aspect of Kondratieff
waves is the subject of several articles in the second section.
The last section of this Yearbook is devoted to the heritage of Kondratieff and other prominent
economists. The year 2015 marks the 150th anniversary of the outstanding Russian
economist, one of the most prominent researchers of medium-term economic cycles, Mikhail
Tugan-Baranovsky, and the volume is concluded with Kondratieff's article about
him. Concerning 2015, we should mention another anniversary, namely, 30 years since the
death of Simon Kuznets (1901–1985).
According to figures from the World Values Survey, a total of 8.4% of Catholics are prepared to even sacrifice their life for their religion, and 11.1% of global Catholics also attend Mass more than once a week, while 31.4% attend Mass at least once a week and another 15.7% attend Mass at least once a month. The most devout Catholic communities are to be found in India, Nigeria and Tanzania. The lowest religious service attendance rates are found in France, Latvia and Uruguay
Yes, there is a Catholic Church in which high-income people are much more represented among those who attend mass on Sunday at least once a month than in the average of society, and these national Catholic churches are found in Bosnia - Herzegovina (2001), Singapore (2002), Germany (1999), and Britain (1999), while there is also a Catholic Church of the poor (people with low incomes), who are (much) more represented among the regular religious service participants than among the total population (in descending order): Latvia (1999), Czech Republic (1999), Lithuania (1999), Spain (2000), and Slovenia (1999).
We then demonstrate empirically that liberation theology as a phenomenon of left-wing Catholicism is now virtually disappearing worldwide, and that liberation theology ends with the end of the social movement that has represented it. We then estimate that practicing global Catholics amount to a milieu of some 340 million human who want to severely restrict or prohibit migration, 298 million human beings who reject gay neighbors, 292 million who do not accept a single mother and 170 million people who in one way or another favor the use of violence for political ends. Our empirical research shows that from the point of view of the sociology of religion, there are four types and extremes of Catholicism, all anti-democratic, but in conflict with each other, and self-contradictory:
• anti-democratic forces and the xenophobic plebeian low income and education segment.
• a Catholic left, which is not xenophobic, but which is extremely susceptible to the temptations of anti-democratic attitudes and has no real roots in the poorest strata of the population, but among the lower middle class of Catholic skilled workers.
• The strongly xenophobic upper strata, which are highly educated, and who practice every Sunday, but who completely distrust the Church as an institution and also complete distrust the armed forces, which in most Catholic countries nowadays solidly support the new democratic institutions after the military regimes of the 60, 70 and 80, and finally
• the old classical Catholic right-wing upper class, which prefers Army rule, but at least it is not susceptible of xenophobia.
We also try to develop in this book an index of liberal Catholicism, compatible with the Enlightenment, again using results for practicing Catholics from the polls from the World Values Survey at the national level. According to our figures, the most enlightened Catholicisms of the world are to be found in the following 10 countries: Italy; Austria; Croatia; Germany; Albania; Switzerland; United States; Spain; Malta; and Ireland.
One of the most surprising results of our comparison in European countries with available data from the European Social Survey is that the percentage of people, who have little or no confidence in the democratic system, is larger among practicing Catholics than among European Muslims. In Slovenia, this difference is more than 10%, in Belgium and Switzerland this percentage is between 5 and 10% higher than among the resident Muslims; and also in Spain, Austria, United Kingdom and the Netherlands distrust in democracy is higher among practicing Catholics than among resident Muslims. We also present the first empirical comparison in world social science literature about the global rejection of democracy by religious denomination, religious practice and political orientation. Our results inmply a critique of the political practice of radical Catholics both on the extreme right and the extreme left in recent years.
Finally, we also constructed an index of the adaptation of all the practitioners of all religions towards the secular, modern and democratic, constitutional state. Despite the fact that most Muslim countries are poorer than most Catholic countries, Catholicism and Islam practiced worldwide are almost indistinguishable on our secular modern democratic value scale.
Harvard economist Professor Robert Barro investigated in recent years the close relationship between religious believe structures and economic growth. In our chapter on Catholicism and world development, we continue research in this tradition and we tried to establish empirical relationships between empirically observable structures of Catholicism and world development. We present our multiple regression results in a language that is understandable also for non-economists. Current research in the theory of global economic growth and development determines the size of the effect of independent variables ("drivers of economic growth", "drivers of inequality") on the rate of long-term growth/rate of economic inequality, etc., by investigating not only the explanatory power of economic variables and policies, but also institutions, the climate, the penetration of a country by foreign capital, the rate of military personnel per population, religious structures and so on. Many explanatory variables enter then into a regression of a "kitchen sink" type (this term was used, among others by the econometrician Durlauf, 2008) of all possible explanations of economic growth and economic performance, and not all variables, which went 'down the sink', have a significant effect. Only the ones weeded out by the 'filter' of statistical significance.
We start with one of the most interesting results: while health expenditures per capita in a society significantly determine if a country has a liberal Catholic environment, is committed to democracy, it is also clear that Catholic elitism, characteristic of a society where practicing Catholics enjoy a much higher level of education than the society around them, is one of the main reasons for the lack of a Catholic liberal and democratic political and intellectual climate. Besides, it is quite clear that the density of Cardinals as a reasonably reliable sign of the close axis between the local Church and the Rome center prevents the development of liberal Catholicism, while the goal number 1 of existing political feminism around the globe, i.e. equating female earnings to male earnings, also has a negative effect on the development of liberal Catholicism. That is feminism greatly polarizes Catholic structures, especially in the more developed world.
Our results on the determinants of the rate of long-term economic growth are well supported by the research results of the neo-liberal quantitative German sociologist Erich Weede, and they also corroborate or rather qualify recent results by Robert Barro. The rate of religious practice on Sunday and the rate of military personnel per capita have a positive effect on the rate of economic growth, stressing the factors of trust in religious institutions (Sunday Mass) and the modernization and identification of youth with the country and the armed forces (military personnel rate) for economic growth. Besides, it is worth mentioning that a very strong Catholic left is absolutely incompatible with very rapid capitalist development, especially because its values of immediate justice, etc. are irreconcilable with a "Calvinist" long-term accumulation of savings, the accumulation of capital and general trust in the institutions of property. Apart from that, some socio-liberal theories of growth (Tausch/Prager, 1993) received support - the female activity rate has a significant and positive effect on the rate of economic growth.
We ultimately believe that a key to understanding the dangers of a return of the Catholic Church towards pre-Vatican II structures is the total misunderstanding among many Catholicsd of the historic positive contribution of Free Masonry to the liberal political culture of the countries of the world.
Note: Downloadable document is in Spanish.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 363
Keywords: Index Numbers and Aggregation, International Relations and International Political Economy, Religion, Bureaucracy, Administrative Processes in Public Organizations, Corruption
JEL Classification: C43, F5, Z12, D73
"
‘This new book by Arno Tausch and Almas Heshmati is important reading for anyone interested in the global economic, social, political and environmental developments of the past few decades. Since accurate knowledge of these developments is necessary for wise future policies, it is especially important for policymakers to consider carefully the book’s comprehensive findings and insights.’ —Walter Moss, Professor Emeritus, Department of History and Philosophy, Eastern Michigan University
‘Arno Tausch and Almas Heshmati have produced a first-rate study, which greatly contributes to the heated discussion about the economic consequences of globalization. Drawing on relevant empirical data, their insightful arguments should be heeded by both policymakers and economic analysts in the EU and beyond.’ —Manfred B. Steger, Professor of Political Science and Global Studies, University of Hawaii-Manoa and Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology
‘By applying a cutting-edge approach to the evaluation of the overall effects of globalization, Arno Tausch and Almas Heshmati have managed to establish absolutely non-trivial and eye-opening conclusions, which European policymakers should not simply listen to but rather abide by.’ —László Trautmann, Dean, Faculty of Economics, Corvinus University of Budapest
‘Globalization, the Human Condition and Sustainable Development in the Twenty-first Century: Cross-national Perspectives and European Implications’ is a cross-national, 175-nation-based exploration of the deep crisis in which Europe currently finds itself. Investigating the effects of dependency theory and world-systems theory upon the global success of eight dimensions of development – including democracy, environmental sustainability, employment, social cohesion, high-quality tertiary education and gender justice – this study argues that the current European crisis has been precipitated by the pro-globalist policies of the European Commission, and that in the near future these policies threaten to enter Europe into a destructive ‘race to the bottom’.
Readership: This book will benefit international intelligence agencies, risk assessment experts, European institutions, academia, media, rating agencies, transnational banks and corporations.
Author Information
Arno Tausch is Visiting Professor of Economics at Corvinus University in Budapest, Hungary and Adjunct Professor of Political Science at Innsbruck University, Austria.
Almas Heshmati is Professor of Economics at Korea University.
Table of Contents
List of Abbreviations; Glossary of Key Terms; Foreword; Preface; 1. Should the Musicians Continue to Play?; 2. Background; 3. Methods; 4. Cross-national Results: Beyond the Pro-globalist Development Approach of the European Commission; 5. Final Cross-national Results for the Combined Development Indicator; 6. A Time Series Perspective on Globalization, Growth and Inequality; 7. Conclusions; Appendix 1: Multiple Regressions – The Dependency Model, Tested against Feminist, Demographic, Neoliberal, Geographic, Cultural, Peace Research and Human Capital Policy Predictors, Migration Theories and Integration Theories; Appendix 2: The Crisis Performance Index (Factor Analytical), 2009–2010 and After; Appendix 3: The Dynamics of Globalization since 1980 in 29 Major Economies of the World – The Time Series; Appendix 4: The Dynamics of Globalization and Inequality since 1970 in Some Major Developing Economies and in the World System as a Whole; Appendix 5: A Non-parametric Global Development Index, Based on 35 Variables; Appendix 6: A Non-parametric Global Development Index, Based on 30 Variables and Its Multivariate Determinants; Appendix 7: The Sources for the Cross-national Data Collection; A Commented Guide to the Literature; References; Index of Persons and Authorships; Index of Subjects and Countries
We then observe the contradictions between some of the remaining 13 indicators, chosen by the member governments and the European Commission, to measure the Lisbon progress. We conclude that only a Schumpeterian vision of capitalism as a process of “creative destruction” – or rather – “destructive creation” can explain these contradictions, which we empirically reveal in this analysis, and which beset the “Lisbon process” from the very beginning. European decision makers often seem to be unaware about these underlying contradictions, and our paper hopes to clarify the processes involved.
For Schumpeter and his elitist-conservative visions of society, the decay of values in capitalist society was an all-important element in his pessimistic theory, developed in “Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy.” For Schumpeter, the disappearance of the enterprising, male-dominated capitalist family was an all-important element in his theory. We of course strongly reject Schumpeter on this point, but his analysis about the importance of family and household structures as such for capitalist development enters, so to speak, the empirical analysis of European Union socio-political realities via the “back door.” It is not the disappearance of the enterprising capitalist family, which threatens the future of capitalism in Europe, but the often still existing incompatibility of work and family life, which explains more than 60% of Lisbon process failure. We then proceeded to analyze with multiple regression techniques the recent European Commission data on regional growth in Europe. Patterns of discrimination against the young and the elderly on the labor market are incompatible with long-run economic growth.Schumpeter’s observations about the destructive creation inherent in the process of capitalist development, his observations about the sociological limits, which the formation and continuity of capitalist elites encounter in the long-run development of the “market economies” as well as his strong belief in the cyclical nature of capitalist development, are all relevant for the interpretation of our other empirical results.
To this end, we analyzed economic growth and development patterns in the world system with UNDP data, using SPSS XIV advanced multiple regression techniques. For one, economic growth in the long run is today strongly determined by the long-run positive effects of foreign direct investments per GDP of the host countries. At the same time – and contrary to the traditional expectations of neo-classical economics – the more short-term effects of heavy foreign direct investment inflows on the host countries of FDI are – ceteris paribus –negative. Transnational corporations do not like an environment of instability, and rather prefer the high-wage, high quality, and high-price economies of the typical West European countries, where their penetration rates of the host countries are highest. The critique in the spirit of Stanford economist Pan Yotopoulos and other social scientists of the drive to lower the comparative international price level, which we discuss at length in this study, is strongly vindicated by our empirical results. Low comparative international price levels, ARE ceteris paribus one of the most important impediments against long-run economic growth. At the same time, it is clear that state sector influence on the economy finds its limits in the post 1989 political economy of the world. However, it is not tax revenue and it is not public health expenditures per GDP, and it is not the priority of human development as a social policy goal over economic growth, but public expenditures in education, which yield the most robust negative (!) effect on the economic growth rate. Also, it can be shown, that public education expenditures are significantly related to high income inequality (differences in the incomes between the richest 20% and the poorest 20%, measured by the so-called quintile ratio). In the post-1989 world, we have privatized airlines and railways, shipyards and steel works, we privatized government services, but we did not privatize – or privatize to a very significant degree – education, especially higher education, which is one of the Achilles heels of the Lisbon realities. We show the relevance of such a reading of events also for the determination of gender empowerment, the UNDP Human development index, and life expectancy. Public education expenditures are also, ceteris paribus, significantly and negatively connected to low life expectancies.
In the second part of our analysis, we first present a rigorous re-analysis of United States Department of State data on acts of global terrorism in the framework of Kondratiev cycle waves. We then proceed to an analysis of the determinants of economic growth and ecological and social development in 140 nations with complete data.
Thus a new, socio-liberal global consensus on global migration, global order and global governance could emerge.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 456
Keywords: Index numbers, labor discrimination, economic integration, economic development - general, comparative studies of countries, Cross-Section Models, Income Distribution, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - General, International Economic Order, Inequality, Economic Integration
JEL Classification: C43, J70, F15, O10, O57, C21, D31, E30, F02
Originally published in 2006 for the Centro Argentino de Estudios Internacionales, Buenos Aires
From the Table of Contents:
I Globalization, environmental decay and sexism in the capitalist world system
Introduction
2) The theoretical framework: what can policy-makers know about ascent and decline in the world economy?
3) The international environment is basically unstable. A survey of the contemporary research methods for the study of changes in the world system since 1989
4) TNC dependence is causing long-term stagnation
The cross-national results about the effects of globalization
The contradictions of the process of the global environmental destruction, to which Europe as one of the main regions of world industry and traffic, disproportionately contributes
Environmental disintegration
6) Gender discrimination and sexism in world capitalism
Development or decay?
II The instability of the transformation process
8) The instability of the transformation process
The( in)validity of Huntington's culture conflict approach on a world level
The return of dictatorship? Towards understanding the process of ethno-political conflict and the world-wide refugee problem
Country risk analysis
Transnational crime as a global actor
III A Labor perspective on basic issues of European Integration
9) A Labor Perspective on Basic Issues of European Integration
The eastward expansion of the European Union
A Polish regional case study
The Eastern part of Europe and the long Kondratieff wave: historical evidence
Transformation success or failure - the macroquantitative evidence
Europe must come to terms with the contradictions of the process of the aging of democracies, especially phenomena which one might term sclerosis bruxelliana and sclerosis Europea
The (in)efficiency of the European Union at the level of stable western democracies
Globalization, East European reconstruction and the fatal conceit of euro-centrism
Transnational integration and national disintegration - a 134 nation study and a further note on EU-enlargements
The Rotten Heart of Europe? A technical note on EMU and the rise of world-wide narco capitalism
IV Migration and globalization
10) Migration and globalization
Appendix
Summary:
Euro-sclerosis at the heart of the Union of presently 15 nations is a reality. Take any indicator of economic illness in the relatively stable Western democracies today - unemployment, lack of economic growth, insufficient human development: it will be neatly determined by just three variables:
- age of democracy within world politically guaranteed boundaries
- size of the state sector, like central government expenditures per GDP
- years of membership in the European Union
Instead of causing stable long-term economic growth, the Union rather causes what might be termed
�the Belgium syndrome
�. Relatively young democracies, like Poland or the Czech Republic, Hungary or Slovenia, will still benefit for a few years from the positive effects of early membership; but the positive initial effects will disappear with the workings of the really existing Union in the long run."
(1998) world systems scholars start from the well-established assumption
that world science is a single gigantic center-periphery relationship. The
strategic and tactical practical conclusions for individual scholars and their
agenda in the scientific periphery and the semi-periphery, to which Europe
increasingly belongs, are much harder to draw than the general diagnosis.
Where can scholars from outside the US attractively publish their
manuscripts for the world market? How does the European Union make its
point in the global scientific arena in the field of the debates about social
policies and globalization? Is there a way, especially for scholars from the
new member countries of the European Union, and from the newly formed
“Union for the Mediterranean”, to effectively publish their works on the
world market?
Only three European social affairs ministries (France, Poland, Spain) afford
themselves the luxury to publish their own scientific journal, while others
must rely on international publishing to make their expertise heard
internationally.
This study tries to answer tentatively such a difficult and strategic
question, and quantitatively compares the performance of Amsterdam
University Press (EU); Ashgate (EU); Blackwell (EU); Cambridge UP (EU);
Campus (Frankfurt/Ann Arbor) (EU); Cornell UP (USA); Edward Elgar
(EU); Houghton/Mifflin (US); IOS Press (EU); Lexington (US); Monthly
Review Press (US); Nova Science Publishers (US); Oxford University Press
(EU); Palgrave Macmillan (EU); Praeger Publishers (EU); Routledge (EU);
Rowman/Littlefield (US); Sage Publications (US); Springer-Verlag (US);
St. Martin's Press (US); and Transaction Publishers (US), which in
between them control a sizeable share of the social science academic book
publishing market in such fields of political science as globalization or
European Union studies, with up to nineteen quantitative performance
criteria, ranging from market success rates on global markets both in
North America as well as mainly in the Asia-Pacific and European region,
comparative library presence rates at international organizations libraries,
such as the European Union and the United Nations, and the quantitative
impact of published titles on combined indices of peer reviewed journals
and the international daily and weekly press. In addition, our study
evaluates the impact of the companies’ books and journals on the
literature, contained in “Google book search” and “Google scholar”, all per
total company book and serials output.
In terms of their ability to place books on the markets of now 100+
countries well in comparison to total production, the American companies
in our sample hold an unparalleled power. The relative market leaders,
which get a large percentage of their total book output to more than 50
global libraries each, are:
• Lexington (US)
• St. Martin's Press (US)
• Rowman/Littlefield (US)
• Monthly Review Press (US)
• Praeger Publishers (US)
• Cornell UP (US)
• Ashgate (UK)
• Transaction Publishers (US)
• Edward Elgar (UK)
• Nova Science Publishers (US)
Globalization and its effects on the social system
Rising inequality
Stagnation in the center countries of the world system
Global Djihad and clash of global values
Cyclical instabilities
Global migration flows
Environmental crisis
The slides highlight latest research results published inter alia with Springer Publishers, Heidelberg and New York, and John Wiley journals
A word or two about the datasets made available at Corvinus University
Corvinus Data 1
for the data documentation all the texts and materials avaiable from
http://www.hichemkaroui.com/?p=2017
http://www.hichemkaroui.com/?p=2383#more-2383
Corvinus Data 2
Corvinus Data 3 - dataset in SPSS-format
Corvinus Data 4 - economic growth and debt situation from IMF data
Additionally, the following freely available articles, written by Professor Arno Tausch, make use of macroquantitative data for cross-national and time series research:
(2007), ‘Global Terrorism and World Political Cycles’ in History and mathematics (special issue):Analyzing and Modeling Global Development (Volgograd, Russia) Grinin L., Munck V. C. de, Korotayev A. (Moscow) (Ed.). ‘Anthropology of the East’ Center, Russian State University for the Humanities, 6 Miusskaya Ploshchad', Moscow 125267, Russia, pp. 99 - 126 [available from international book trade at: http://urss.ru/cgi-bin/db.pl?cp=&page=Book&id=53184&lang=en&Languages=2&blang=en&list=130 ]
(2007), ‘War Cycles’ Social Evolution and History (Volgograd, Russia), Vol. 6, No. 2, September 2007, pp. 39 – 74 (also available at: http://www.socionauki.ru/authors/tausch_arn/?sphrase_id=14791 )
(2009, with Almas HESHMATI and Chemen S.J. BAJALAN), ‘Measurement and Analysis of Child Well-Being in Middle and High Income Countries’ The European Journal of Comparative Economics, Vol. 5, n.2, pp. 227-286, ISSN 1722-4667 (available at http://eaces.liuc.it/info.asp?tipo=articles&identifier=ejce:18242979/2008/02/03 )
(2010), ‘Life expectancy, infant mortality and inequality - once again. Rapid Responses to: EDITORIALS: Kate E Pickett and Richard G Wilkinson Greater equality and better health, BMJ 2009; 339: b4320’ British Medical Journal, (2 March 2010) http://www.bmj.com/rapid-response/2011/11/02/life-expectancy-infant-mortality-and-inequality-once-again
(2010), ‘Towards an Index of global tolerance: a quantitative analysis, based on the ‘World Values Survey’ data’. Islamic Perspective, (4)2010 (Center for Sociological Studies, IPCSS, London Academy of Iranian Studies, SOAS London): 263-279, available at: http://iranianstudies.org/journals/islamic-perspective-journal-number-4-2010/
(2010), ‘Towards yet another age of creative destruction?’ Journal of Globalization Studies (Moscow), 1, 1, 2010: 104 – 130 (also available at: http://www.socionauki.ru/authors/tausch_arn/?sphrase_id=14791 )
(2010, with Almas Heshmati, Chemen S. J. Bajalan), ‘On the Multivariate Analysis of the ‘Lisbon Process’’ History and Mathematics (Volgograd, Russia), 1, 2010: 92 – 137 (History & Mathematics: Processes and Models of Global Dynamics ("История и математика: Процессы и модели глобальной динамики". Альманах на английском языке) [available from international book trade at: http://urss.ru/cgi-bin/db.pl?cp=&page=Book&id=53184&lang=en&Languages=2&blang=en&list=130 ]
2010, with Almas Heshmati), ‘Learning from dependency and world system theory: explaining Europe’s failure in the ‘Lisbon Process’ Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations, Vol.9, No.4, Winter 2010: 3-90, available at: http://www.alternativesjournal.net/new/index.php and http://www.alternativesjournal.net/new/index.php?p=details_of_article&id=7
(2010), ‘Paul Boccara's analysis of global capitalism. the return of the Bourbons, and the breakdown of the Brussels / Paris neo-liberal consensus’. Entelequia. Revista Interdisciplinar, 12, Fall 2010. 105-147. Available from Internet: http://www.eumed.net/entelequia/en.art.php?a=12a06
(2011) ‘Globalización y desempleo. Reflexiones empíricas desde la perspectiva de la teoría del ‘sistema mundial’’ Revista de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de Costa Rica, San José de Costa Rica, 128-129: 71-86 / 2010 (II-III), ISSN: 0482-5276: http://www.revistacienciassociales.ucr.ac.cr/globalizacion-y-desempleo-reflexiones-empiricas-desde-la-perspectiva-de-la-teoria-del-%E2%80%9Csistema-mundial%E2%80%9D/
Examples of use of macroquantitative data in international research:
http://econ-www.mit.edu/faculty/acemoglu/data
http://econ-www.mit.edu/faculty/acemoglu/data/ad2010
http://rbarro.com/data-sets/
Additional info:
Links to macroquantitative data analyses at Corvinus University (Prof. Arno Tausch)
Additional data series:
Economic growth: IMF economic growth data (real GDP per annum) and growth predictions, http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/index.php.
Globalization: ETH Zurich globalization time series data, http://globalization.kof.ethz.ch/static/rawdata/globalization_2010_short.xls
Inequality: Theil Index of Inequality, based on payment in 21 industrial sectors; calculated from UNIDO sources in University of Texas Inequality Project, http://utip.gov.utexas.edu/data.html.
Unemployment: unemployment as per cent of the civilian labour force: http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx
ZUM GELEIT 8
TEIL A: EUROPÄISCHE SOZIALPOLITIK 10
EINFÜHRUNG UND PROBLEMAUFRISS 10
DIE 10 WICHTIGSTEN MYTHEN ZU EUROPA – KURZ WIDERLEGT 12
REGULIERUNGSMONSTER BRÜSSEL: VON DER GURKENKRÜMMUNG BIS ZUM KÄLBERSTRICK 14
LÄNDER WIE ÖSTERREICH NICHTS MEHR ZU MELDEN 14
DIE ABGEORDNETEN ZUM EUROPÄISCHEN PARLAMENT: VIEL LÄRM UM NICHTS 15
EINSAM STATT GEMEINSAM: HILFLOS GEGEN DIE VERKEHRSLAWINE 15
ÖSTERREICHS EU-MITGLIEDSCHAFT: AUßER SPESEN NICHTS GEWESEN 15
EU-BUDGET: EIN SELBSTBEDIENUNGSLADENNUNGSLADEN FÜR GAUNER ALLER ART 15
ES WERDEN WEGEN DER NEUEN EU-LÄNDER BEI UNS JOBS UND WACHSTUM VERNICHTET 16
DER EURO EIN TEURO 16
ÖSTERREICHS EU-MITGLIEDSCHAFT: AUßER SPESEN NICHTS GEWESEN 16
AUS MIT UNSEREM GUTEN GLÜHWEIN 16
„EUROPA – ZO’WAS BRAUCH’MA DENN DES“? 33 GUTE GRÜNDE, DOCH EIN(E) ÜBERZEUGTE(R) EUROPÄER(IN) ZU SEIN 18
WAS IST DIE EUROPÄISCHE UNION? 29
I. FRIEDEN UND STABILITÄT 29
II. EUROPA WIRD WIEDER VEREINIGT 30
III. SICHERHEIT 30
IV. DIE EUROPÄISCHE UNION WURDE GEGRÜNDET, UM POLITISCHE ZIELE ZU ERREICHEN 30
V. IDENTITÄT UND VIELFALT IN DER GLOBALISIERTEN WELT 31
VI. WERTE 32
DIE GESCHICHTE DER EU 32
DIE ERWEITERUNGSRUNDEN 33
WIE FUNKTIONIERT DIE EU? 35
BESCHLUSSFASSUNG IM DREIECK 35
DER RAT DER EUROPÄISCHEN UNION UND DER EUROPÄISCHE RAT 35
DAS EUROPÄISCHE PARLAMENT 36
DIE EUROPÄISCHE KOMMISSION 39
ANDERE INSTITUTIONEN UND EINRICHTUNGEN 39
(a) Der Gerichtshof 39
(b) Rechnungshof 39
(c) Der Europäische Wirtschafts- und Sozialausschuss 40
(d) Der Ausschuss der Regionen 40
(e) Die Europäische Investitionsbank 40
(f) Die Europäische Zentralbank 40
WAS „KANN“ DIE EUROPÄISCHE SOZIALPOLITIK? 41
SOZIALPOLITIK IN EUROPA 42
GRUNDLAGEN 43
OFFENE METHODE DER KOORDINIERUNG 44
ARMUTSREDUKTIONSZIEL 45
EUROPÄISCHE PLATTFORM GEGEN ARMUT UND SOZIALE AUSGRENZUNG 45
SOZIALE DIENSTLEISTUNGEN VON ALLGEMEINEN INTERESSE (SDAI) 45
KOORDINIERUNG DER SOZIALVERSICHERUNGSSYSTEME 46
FREIZÜGIGKEIT 46
ENTSENDUNG VON ARBEITNEHMERN 47
RECHTE AM ARBEITSPLATZ 48
SOZIALER DIALOG 48
FÖRDERMITTEL 48
DIE ERWEITERUNG DER EUROPÄISCHEN UNION 50
DIE FÜNF ERWEITERUNGSRUNDEN 50
PERSPEKTIVEN DER ERWEITERUNG 51
GRUNDSÄTZE DER ERWEITERUNGSPOLITIK 51
Vier Prinzipien der Erweiterung 51
Rechtliche Grundlagen 52
Kopenhagener Kriterien 52
Nicht die Balance verlieren 53
PHASEN DES ERWEITERUNGSPROZESSES 53
VERHANDLUNGSMANDAT UND RAHMENBEDINGUNGEN 54
SCREENING UND MONITORING 55
ABSCHLUSS DER VERHANDLUNGEN UND BEITRITTSVERTRAG 55
UNTERSTÜTZUNG DER BEITRITTSBEMÜHUNGEN 56
INSTRUMENT FÜR HERANFÜHRUNGSHILFE (IPA) 56
EU-ERWEITERUNG: KROATIEN 57
Meilensteine der EU-Kroatien Beziehungen 57
Beitrittsverhandlungen: Verlauf und Herausforderungen 57
Unterstützung der EU für Kroatien auf dem Weg zum Beitritt 58
EU-ERWEITERUNG: ISLAND 59
Meilensteine der Beziehungen zwischen der EU und Island 59
Beitrittsverhandlungen: Verlauf und Herausforderungen 59
Unterstützung der Europäischen Union für Island auf dem Weg zum Beitritt 60
EU-ERWEITERUNG: TÜRKEI 60
Meilensteine der Beziehungen zwischen EU und Türkei 60
Beitrittsverhandlungen: Verlauf und Herausforderungen 61
Unterstützung der Europäischen Union für die Türkei auf dem Weg zum Beitritt 62
EU-ERWEITERUNG: FORTSCHRITTE AUF DEM WESTBALKAN 63
EU-Erweiterung: offizieller Kandidat - Ehemalige jugoslawische Republik Mazedonien 63
EU-Erweiterung: offizieller Kandidat - Montenegro 64
EU-Erweiterung: offizieller Kandidat - Serbien 66
EU-Erweiterung: Potentielle Kandidaten – Albanien, Bosnien-Herzegowina, Kosovo 67
EU-HAUSHALT/MEHRJÄHRIGER FINANZRAHMEN 71
WAS IST DER MEHRJÄHRIGE FINANZRAHMEN? 73
Was ist der Mehrjährige Finanzrahmen? 73
Korrekturen 74
Finanzinstrumente außerhalb des Finanzrahmens 75
TEIL B: INTERNATIONALE BESCHÄFTIGUNGS- UND SOZIALPOLITIK 76
DIE WICHTIGSTEN AKTEURE 76
INTERNATIONALE ARBEITSORGANISATION (ILO) 77
DIE ROLLE ÖSTERREICHS IN DER ILO 77
DIE ACHT KERNÜBEREINKOMMEN DER IAO 77
DIE AGENDA FÜR MENSCHENWÜRDIGE ARBEIT 78
DIE FESTLEGUNG INTERNATIONALER ARBEITS- UND SOZIALSTANDARDS 78
DIE TECHNISCHE ZUSAMMENARBEIT UND UNTERSTÜTZUNG 80
DER GLOBALE BESCHÄFTIGUNGSPAKT 80
WEBLINKS ZUM SELBSTSTUDIUM 81
VEREINTE NATIONEN 82
DIE VN-GENERALVERSAMMLUNG 82
DER WIRTSCHAFTS- UND SOZIALRAT 82
AUSSCHUSS FÜR SOZIALE ENTWICKLUNG 83
Umsetzung der Beschlüsse in den Mitgliedstaaten 83
Internationaler Pakt über wirtschaftliche, soziale und kulturelle Rechte 83
Das Übereinkommen über die Rechte von Menschen mit Behinderungen 84
ÖSTERREICH UND DIE VEREINTEN NATIONEN 84
REFORM DER VEREINTEN NATIONEN 85
WEBLINKS ZUM SELBSTSTUDIUM 85
ORGANISATION FÜR WIRTSCHAFTLICHE ZUSAMMENARBEIT UND ENTWICKLUNG (OECD) 87
WEBLINKS ZUM SELBSTSTUDIUM 88
EUROPARAT 89
WEBLINKS ZUM SELBSTSTUDIUM 90
WELTBANK UND INTERNATIONALER WÄHRUNGSFONDS 91
WEBLINKS ZUM SELBSTSTUDIUM 92
WTO – WELTHANDELSORGANISATION 93
WEBLINKS ZUM SELBSTSTUDIUM ZU DIESER ÜBERAUS KOMPLEXEN MATERIE 95
Globalisierungskritik: 95
DIE G20 97
ENTSTEHUNG DER G20 97
ARBEITS- UND SOZIALPOLITIK BEI DEN G20 97
WEBLINKS ZUM SELBSTSTUDIUM 98
G-8 99
WIE FUNKTIONIERT DER G8-PROZESS? 99
WEBLINKS ZUM SELBSTSTUDIUM 100
EINIGE WEITERE INFORMATIONEN ZU DIESEM KAPITEL IM INTERNET 100
TEIL C: WIEDERHOLUNG UND VERTIEFUNG 101
DAS EUROPA DES RECHTS 101
Vertrag von Lissabon (2007) 101
Vertrag von Nizza (2001) 102
Vertrag von Amsterdam (1997) 102
Vertrag über die Europäische Union (1992) 102
Einheitliche Europäische Akte (1986) 102
Die "Römischen Verträge" (1957) 103
Vertrag über die Gründung der Europäischen Gemeinschaft für Kohle und Stahl (1951) 103
TEIL D: WICHTIGE BEGRIFFE, WIEDERHOLUNG UND ERGÄNZUNG DES LERNSTOFFS; PRÜFUNGSFRAGEN FÜR DIE VERWENDUNGSGRUPPEN B, C … 104
ABSORPTIONSKAPAZITÄT 104
ACQUIS COMMUNAUTAIRE (GEMEINSAMER BESITZSTAND) 104
AGENDA 104
AMTSSPRACHEN 104
BENCHMARKING 105
BESCHLUSSFASSUNG MIT QUALIFIZIERTER MEHRHEIT 105
BEWERBERLAND 105
„BRÜSSEL HAT ENTSCHIEDEN…“ 105
BÜRGERINITIATIVE 106
DEMOKRATIEDEFIZIT 106
DRITTSTAAT / DRITTLAND 106
EFTA 106
EINSTIMMIGKEIT 106
EMPFEHLENSWERTE VERFAHREN: 107
ERASMUS 107
ERWEITERUNG 107
EUROBAROMETER 109
EUROKRAT 109
EUROLAND 109
EUROPA 109
EUROPA 2020 109
EUROPÄISCHE INTEGRATION: 109
EUROPÄISCHES JAHR DES … 110
EUROPATAG, 9. MAI 110
EUROSKEPTIKER 110
EUROTARIF: 110
EWR 111
FESTUNG EUROPA 111
FINANZIELLE VORAUSSCHAU 111
FLEXICURITY 111
FÖDERALISMUS 111
FREIHANDELSZONE 111
GAP 112
GEMEINSAMES HANDELN AUF EUROPÄISCHER EBENE 112
GD 112
GEMEINSAMER MARKT 112
GEMEINSCHAFT(EN) 113
GEMEINSCHAFTSMETHODE 113
GIPFEL 113
„GRÜNDERVÄTER“ 113
HARMONISIERUNG 113
HAUSHALTSDEFIZIT 114
INTERNATIONALE SOZIALPOLITIK AUßERHALB DER EU 114
KANDIDATENLAND 114
KARTELL 115
KOHÄSION 115
KOMITOLOGIE 115
KOMPETENZEN 115
KONVENT 115
KOPENHAGENER KRITERIEN 115
KULTURHAUPTSTADT 116
LEBENSMITTELSICHERHEIT 116
MAASTRICHT-KRITERIEN 116
MAINSTREAMING 116
MITGLIEDSTAAT 117
NACHBARSCHAFTSPOLITIK 117
NON-PAPER 117
OFFENE KOORDINIERUNG(SMETHODE) 117
RAT 117
Der Europäische Rat 117
Der Rat der Europäischen Union 117
Der Europarat 118
REGIERUNGSKONFERENZ (RK) 118
REGIONALPOLITIK 118
RK: SIEHE „REGIERUNGSKONFERENZ“. 118
SCHENGENLAND (= SCHENGEN-GEBIET, DIE SCHENGEN-STAATEN) 118
SEMESTER 119
SOZIALER DIALOG 119
SOZIALPARTNER 119
STAKEHOLDER 119
STRAßBURG 119
SUBSIDIARITÄT 120
SUPRANATIONAL 120
TRANSNATIONAL 120
TRANSPARENZ 120
ÜBERPRÜFUNGSKLAUSEL 120
VERSTÄRKTE ZUSAMMENARBEIT 120
VERTRAG VON LISSABON 120
VIER FREIHEITEN 121
ZIVILER DIALOG 121
ZIVILGESELLSCHAFT 121
ZUSTÄNDIGE BEHÖRDE 121
ZWISCHENSTAATLICH 121
LÖSUNG DER ÜBUNGSAUFGABE – EUROSKEPSIS IN Ö IM VERGLEICH 122
A) EUROBAROMETER HERBST 2011 122
B) WORLD VALUES SURVEY, UNTERSUCHUNGSWELLEN 1995-2000 123
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Our analysis is a theoretical and empirical development of the contribution of the Austrian political economist Josef Steindl (1912-1993), whose work nowadays enjoys a renaissance (see also: Lavoie, 1996), especially championed vigorously by researchers from the Austrian Institute for Economic Research in Vienna, as a policy alternative to the current and dominant Brussels/Paris neo-liberal consensus of the European Commission and the OECD. In Steindl (1946), the author already analyzed the process of increasing concentration of capital and the oligopoly of the market. In Steindl (1952), he established a relationship between economic stagnation and the growth of oligopoly in advanced capitalist countries. Oligopolistic or monopolistic firms avoid cut-throat price competition (see especially Guger/Marterbauer/Walterskirchen, 2006). For this reason, the share of cumulated investments of multinational, oligopolistic corporations in the GDP of host countries is one of the most important variables, emerging as a long-term bottleneck of European development. This absolutely non-mainstream message has a solid foundation in the results of empirical, quantitative sociology (Bornschier, 1975, 1976, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983, 1996, 2002, 2005; Bornschier and Chase-Dunn, 1985), replicated in the present study. Already Steindl expected a secular tendency to stagnation in mature capitalist economies, brought about by monopolization. Growth rates of GDP are low and unemployment is high in relation to long-run averages and to the USA. Economic policy in the EU seems to have an inherent anti-growth and pro-unemployment bias.
The present overview of recent quantitative studies first introduces a summary about recent results of a research project about contemporary global development since the end of Communism in East Central Europe and the former USSR in up to 175 nations, using 26 predictor variables to evaluate the determinants of 35 processes of development on a global scale.
Presented with signs of failure and decay all around, European decision makers should start finally to take serious lessons on why some countries in the world system develop better than others. We criticize the hitherto existing pro-globalization strategy of the EU-Commission, and maintain that it is to be held responsible for the failure of the attempt to make Europe the world’s leading economy by 2010, the so-called ‘Lisbon strategy’. To judge from the results of this study, the successor strategy (the so-called ‘EU-2020’ strategy) will also fail, just like the ‘Lisbon strategy 2010’.
Our analysis of the time series perspectives of globalization and development revealed astonishing results, again confirming the globalization critical paradigm.
Former Commission President Delors used to say that nobody can fall in love with the single market. Mario Monti, a former EU-Commissioner, now recognizes that when the market is regarded as a superior entity, as if it were always able to deliver efficiently and did not need appropriate regulation and rigorous supervision, dangers are likely to lie ahead, as shown by the financial crisis. It was – Monti says - forgotten by many that the market ‘is a good servant but a bad master’.
But the most basic vision of the post-war world of peace and prosperity was spelt out by President Franklin Delano Roosevelt already on 6 January 1941: the four freedoms of the freedom of speech and expression - everywhere in the world. The second is to worship God in his own way everywhere in the world. The third is freedom from want. The fourth is freedom from fear. Our 13 social cohesion regressions, confirmed the globalization critical paradigm, and showed that current realities of the world economy suggest a Rooseveltean reading of four freedoms, which might be undermined or even threatened by what Mario Monto called the bad master, which by the European political elites is definitely regarded as the superior entity, as if it were always able to deliver efficiently and did not need appropriate regulation and rigorous supervision. Our results, in particular, suggested, as we already hinted above:
• World economic openness does have a significant negative effect on the Human Development Index, in many ways THE master variable for the social situation in a country.
• Low comparative price levels, and hence, implicitly, a low level of services of general interest, are a bad precondition for the levelling of the income differences between rich and poor.
• High foreign savings are indeed a driver of unemployment, and income inequality.
• MNC penetration increases income polarization and infant mortality.
Under such circumstances, Europe must return to the Delors agenda and a social welfare state to manage the multiple tasks of integration and social cohesion. The often-hailed beneficial effects of foreign capital penetration do not materialize, or materialize completely. As correctly predicted by the sociological and political science ‘dependency’ literature in the tradition of Osvaldo Sunkel, social polarization dramatically increases by a development model, based on a very high foreign capital penetration.
This essay finally also touches on the issue of political economic long-cycle debate. Our analysis, using advanced statistical techniques, also re-iterates empirical results, recently published by Korotayev and Tsirel (2010) and has shown in addition the following things:
1) liberal and ‘Marxist’ analyses of all ‘denominations’ are right in emphasizing the severe cyclical fluctuations of the capitalist system on a global scale
2) there is a world political and world strategic swing of societal systems, which accompanies the economic ups and downs
3) and there is a striking similarity in the logic of the globalized period of the second half of the 19th Century with our age.
Globalization and monopolies lead towards stagnation. Some great political economists of the instability of the international order, like Rosa Luxemburg and Otto Bauer, foresaw the dark clouds of major inner-capitalist wars on the horizon, and in the light of our analysis, we are not too far away from such dark times, if the logic of ‘madness’ called contemporary globalization is not corrected.
Our re-discovery of the issue of European industrial policy in the framework of an otherwise relatively free economy is based on the solid empirical evidence in this study, which shows the strong gnegative effects of high coefficients of MNC penetration and the low coefficients of European MNC headquarter status. Thus the old critical questions addressed in the direction of neo-classical theory by such economists as Celso Furtado, Michal Kalecki, Gunnar Myrdal, Francois Perroux, Raul Prebisch, Paul Rosenstein-Rodan, Kurt Rothschild, Dudley Seers, Hans Singer and others can be taken up anew. De-regulation helps, but it helps the dominant centre to maintain and even increase its leading position, and certainly not the technologically and politically weaker nations of the periphery and semi-periphery. So, it is French former EU-Commission President Jacques Delors (1992) and not economics Nobel Laureate Prof. Krugman, who seems to have gained the upper hand in the debate started by Professor Paul Krugman in ‘Foreign Affairs’ in 1994 on industrial policy and global economic competitiveness (http://www.foreignaffairs.org/19940301faessay5094/paul-krugman/competitiveness-a-dangerous-obsession.html). Is European wisdom reduced forever to the magic number of 3 per cent budget deficit, i.e. the Maastricht criteria? Or is the single market indeed being regarded as the superior entity, as if it was always able to deliver efficiently and did not need appropriate regulation and rigorous supervision, as Mario Monto warned in his quoted report, 2010?
In our opinion, European policy-making should dare finally to take the globalization-critical organizations of ‘civil society’ seriously (Brand, 2005; Brand and Raza, 2003; Brand et al., 2000; Brand et al., 2001). Without a proper European industrial policy there will no answer to the BRIC country and United States Keynesian global power strategy that always puts the well-being of their economies and corporations ahead of ideology.
Note: Downloadable document is in German.
Keywords: International Relations and International Political Economy, International Migration
JEL Classification: F5, F22
working papers series
Suggested Citation
Tausch, Arno , Globalisierung Und Die Zukunft Der Eu-2020-Strategie (Globalization and the Future of the EU-2020 Strategy) (November 1, 2011). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1998081 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1998081
How effective are all those billions paid out by the Commission for the Lisbon process in the individual Member States? We apply regression analysis to measure the long-term structural budget problem of the European Union, often called "revenue problem," estimating which rich countries are above a regression line of "pure distributive justice," based on purchasing power per capita. Our analysis shows that over time the weight of the "revenue problem" shifted to the East of our continent. Net inflows should ideally have been used to lift poor countries out of poverty. We empirically estimate the contributions of these inflows to convergence performance. Our calculations show that 1. certainly net transfers enabled the convergence of purchasing power in Europe, but 2. there were substantial deviations of the convergence process 3. and over time imbalances seem even to have strengthened.
The south of Europe, especially Portugal, Italy, and Hungary and Bulgaria do not succeed, and the Lisbon efficiency of the EU financial resources decreased in particular in Denmark, Great Britain, Hungary, Romania and Greece over time. There seems to be a "constancy of subsidies” even long after the reasons for the subsidy long ceased to exist. Ireland, for instance still received massive inflows for many years even after it became one of the richest EU countries. In our estimation equations, we allow for the fact that rich countries may grow faster than very poor countries. Our quantitative analysis shows that with the "big bang" enlargement in May 2004 a first good start towards more convergence and regional redistribution of the resources of the EU budget could have been made, but that the good intentions quickly dissipated again and net transfers again suffered a convergence-efficiency loss. The EU-27 returned to the old tendency that the very rich countries grow faster than the poorer countries. Overall, therefore, our findings suggest that the current handling of the EU-budget is far from sufficient to achieve a real convergence of living conditions in Europe.
There is also a current "perverse correlation” between corruption and net inflows. Poor states in the Union would do well to carry out consistent anti-corruption policies if they want adequate funding to reduce poverty. Our analysis also shows with the latest empirical regional and other statistics of the OECD the true dimension of the Lisbon gap between Europe and the Western over-seas democracies. We analyzed regional development (economic growth, regional Lisbon performance, unemployment rates and employment rates of older workers) in the entire EU-27, using the freely available Inforegio database of the EU-Commission.
Note: downloadable document is in German
Suggested citation:
Tausch, Arno , The EU-Budget and the Lisbon Process: An Empirical Efficiency Analysis from an Income Convergence and Regional Policy Viewpoint (Das EU-Budget und Der Lissabon-Prozess Eine Empirische Effizienzanalyse Aus Konvergenzpolitischer und Regionalpolitischer Sicht (German) (November 1, 2009). Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft Working Paper No. 107. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1567011 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1567011
Homonegativity is not just a matter of rising scientific interest in the global social science community, but also of growing concern for public security and political stability worldwide. According to Human Dignity Trust (https://www.humandignitytrust.org/) the following regimes have the death penalty against homosexuality in force:
Afghanistan
Brunei
Iran
Mauritania
Nigeria
Pakistan
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Somalia
Uganda
United Arab Emirates
Yemen
Kollman, 2016; Han, & O’Mahonney, 2011 have impressively shown the extent of the global other discrimination of the LGBTQ+ communities. Extremist groups, from the radical right (Bjorgo, 2014) to radical Islamists (Vidino, & Meleagrou-Hitchens, 2022), increasingly target LGBTQ+ victims. It is no wonder, therefore that a publication, featuring the comparative security threat from homonegative and religiously motivated political extremism – from whatever source – in the countries of the European Union and beyond is an absolute necessity.
The basic research question of this publication is to estimate the extent of homonegativity in 88 countries and territories of the world (including the Republic of Austria) using the open data of the World Values Survey (integrating the data of the European Values Study) 2017-2022 and to examine the relationship between homonegativity and religiously motivated political extremism, in particular "political Islam", using multivariate methods. For analytical reasons, the multivariate analysis also uses data collected in earlier editions of the World Values Survey, in particular the World Values Survey 2010-2014. This might be only a second-best solution, given the fact that as yet, no multivariate analysis of Eurobarometer data on the issue exists.
Who are the homophobes in our society? The World Values Survey, the largest non-commercial and freely available survey of the world's population, provides a scientifically sound answer to this question and shows which social groups in the world are more or less homophobic. Founded by the American political scientist Ronald F. Inglehart (1934-2021), the World Values Survey now covers almost 100 countries and 90% of the world's population, based on a representative sample of more than 400,000 respondents.
Our analyses were carried out using the SPSS statistical software package in its latest, and most advanced version, the SPSS 29. Due to the very large representative samples (e.g. in most countries > 1000), cautious conclusions can also be drawn for smaller subgroups. We have chosen to select the members of the Orthodox and the Muslim communities, since a number of earlier studies, surveyed in this publication, have concluded that radicalized interpretations of Orthodox and Muslim religious doctrines lead to a heightened level of homonegativity.
The items in the World Values Survey Wave 7 questionnaire that relate to homosexuality are the acceptance or rejection of homosexual neighbours, the question on a 10-point scale whether homosexuality is justified or not, and opinions on whether homosexual couples are as good parents as other couples. Since the basic acceptance of homosexuality is assessed very differently in the most diverse religious communities in the world and is ultimately the responsibility of the religious communities themselves, the acceptance of homosexual neighbours is the decisive variable and indicator of homonegativity in our study that ultimately needs to be interpreted.
Now it can be argued that these two questions do not adequately reflect the problematic nature of the issue, but obtaining comparative data from more than 80 countries on this phenomenon is just as important for the social debate around the globe as the prejudicial answer to the question of who is particularly homophobic in one’s own country.
In terms of rejection of homosexual neighbours, Jordan, Myanmar, Azerbaijan, Zimbabwe, Nigeria, the Maldives, Egypt and Armenia top the global list with more than 80% of the population rejecting homosexuality, while the lowest rates of rejection are found in Iceland, Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands, Norway, Andorra, Switzerland, the UK, Brazil, France, Argentina, Germany, New Zealand, Canada, Australia, Italy and Austria (11.8%).
On the question of acceptance of homosexuality, Iceland, the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Canada, Switzerland, Andorra, Vietnam, Japan, Germany and Austria (10.2%) are the most tolerant countries in the world, with only around 10% or less saying that homosexuality is never justified. Again, the stark North-South and North-East divide in today's global society is evident, with opposition to homosexuality as 'never justified' exceeding 80% in Libya, the Maldives, Ethiopia, Jordan, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Zimbabwe, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Iran, Tunisia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Indonesia, Nigeria and Pakistan.
Our study will highlight rejection rates among major denominational groups in every country on our planet with sufficient data.
Results will include tables and figures:
- Choropleth maps of global homonegativity
- Tables of homonegativity by country
- Homonegativity by country and religious denomination
The structure of this publication is now as follows.
In Chapter 2, we look at the global clash of civilisations over homosexuality and the extent of hate crime and discrimination against LGBTQ communities around the world, drawing mainly on reports by the European Human Rights Agency, the OSCE, Europol and the Equaldex think tank, and then analyse the main statements by key Catholic, Orthodox and Muslim religious leaders and discuss some important studies on the subject of religion and LGBTQ communities.
In Chapter 3, we review the main studies that use quantitative methods and existing opinion poll data to examine the relationship between homosexuality and religion.
After discussing the top ten approaches in quantitative social science, in Chapter 4 we turn to the methods of our own new study, discussing, among other things, the scope of the World Values Survey, the multivariate methods used, significance tests, parametric indicators, error probabilities, and the transnational aggregates at the national level that become important for our quantitative comparison. In this chapter we also discuss the research design of our study.
In chapter 5, we first present homonegativity in the world system, then address the question of whether there is a linear or non-linear relationship with existential security, and then present our research findings with bivariate correlations, partial correlations, and factor analyses examining secularism, attitudes towards democracy, tolerance, and religious exclusivism, as well as attitudes towards gender equality, religion, political violence, and national resilience and their effects on homonegativity.
In Chapter 6, we then analyse the potential for anti-LGBTQ violence in World System, and then present a parametric index of tolerant social gender norms and democracy, and show the results for World System countries and for Muslim and Orthodox populations.
In Chapter 7 we discuss the relationship between homonegativity and the United Nations Development Programme's index of restrictive gender norms, and then in Chapter 8 of our paper we present the conclusions.
Our study also has two statistical appendices, on the one hand the country results of the parametric index of tolerant social gender norms and democracy, and on the other hand the anti-LGBTI hate crimes in the countries of the European Union in 2021.
In any case, with our quantitative study we hope to have contributed to a rational discussion of these issues and we try to present research results on the highest social science level on these issues. Those who believe in rainbows and tolerance should look at global values in the spirit of the Enlightenment.
This study was financed by the Austrian "Dokumentationsstelle Politischer Islam" and attempts an analysis of what can be said about the phenomenon of "political Islam" in the Arab world and what can be said about religiously motivated political extremism (hereafter abbreviated RMPE) in an international comparison from the perspective of international, empirically oriented social sciences. We use open, internationally accessible data from the Arab Barometer and the World Values Survey to analyse these two phenomena.
The study shows that there is a very broad consensus in research in the leading peer reviewed journals of the social sciences and in the publications of the world's leading book publishers to work with the concept of "political Islam", whereby this analytical-conceptual consensus also includes those who, such as former US President Barack Obama, in his famous Presidential Study Directive No 11, even see an opportunity for cooperation with political Islam, which rejects terrorism, or the French sociologist Francois Burgat, who aggressively argues for an alliance of political Islam with the political left of the West. Important research figures in international Middle East studies, such as the aforementioned Francois Burgat, but also Jocelyne Cesari, John Esposito, Gilles Kepel, Oliver Roy, all of them, and for all the differences they may have in their approach to the phenomenon, have all written important texts on political Islam with this term in the title of their studies, and the author of the present study finds it untenable when today, for example, the Federal Agency for Civic Education (Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung), which is subordinate to the German Ministry of the Interior, writes that whoever uses this term is engaging in "alarmist thinking, placing Muslims under a "general suspicion", fishing in the right-wing pond of voters, and using a term that has incitement potential". This view, expressed by the Federal Agency for Civic Education in Bonn in the language that is so common in Europe today and that covers large sections of the academic community and the opinion columns of the major daily newspapers, seems to be becoming more and more popular.
The author of this study counters this view with the fact that outstanding Arab researchers who teach at Princeton, New Jersey; Amman, Jordan; and Qatar University in Qatar, such as Amaney Jamal, Darwish Al-Emadi and Musa Shteiwi, as senior researchers of the "Arab Barometer" project, explicitly use the term "political Islam" in their questionnaire with five interview items. The extension of the term "political Islam" is practically undisputed. In the mathematical logic and analytical philosophy of the Vienna Circle by Rudolf Carnap (1891-1970), there is a tradition of relying on the extension of a contested term when debating a phenomenon over whose conceptual meaning there is such polarisation. In our case - of "political Islam" - the research of the Arab Barometer as well as Francois Burgat, but also Jocelyne Cesari, John Esposito, Gilles Kepel, and Oliver Roy clearly outline which important value patterns the adherents of political Islam represent (five items from the Arab Barometer) and which political movements and governments of countries are to be assigned to the extension of the phenomenon, such as the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Sudan and Jordan, Jamaat-i-Islami in South Asia, the Refah Party in Turkey, the Islamic Salvation Front in Algeria, al Nahda in Tunisia, Hizballah in Lebanon, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the Palestinian territories, and Gamaa Islamiyya and Jihad in Egypt. Instead of relying on sheer endless debates about "correct" and "permissible" and "incorrect" and "to be avoided" terms (German-speaking intellectuals are particularly fond of such useless debates), let us ask ourselves radically: if it is clear anyway who and what is meant by "political Islam", let us instead look very closely at the empirical phenomena that characterise the adherents of "political Islam" and what relations exist with other empirically ascertainable phenomena.
After presenting the most important existing studies on the topic, the author then goes into the methodological prerequisites of our empirical study and discusses the data sets, the statistical methods and also the ranges of variation in the results.
The empirical analyses based on IBM-SPSS-24 Promax factor analyses of 24 variables according to the Arab Barometer, explicitly measure political Islam with five variables, and also determine the environment (19 variables) of political Islam and its consequences, such as the lack of tolerance towards other religions, identification with states that today clearly represent political Islam, such as the regime in Iran, President Erdogan in Turkey, restrictive gender norms as defined by the UNDP Human Development Report, 2019, the belief that Muslims should enjoy greater rights in a state than non-Muslims, the negative fixation against the US, UK and Israel in world politics, the call for a Sharia that explicitly introduces corporal punishment and restricts women's rights, and expressing a sympathetic understanding of acts of anti-American terror in the Middle East.
In the second part of our empirical evaluations, we explore religiously motivated political extremism (RMPE) by international comparison on the basis of the following items of the World Values Survey, which are sparse but nevertheless available on this topic:
• Many things are desirable, but not all of them are necessary components of a democracy. For each of the following things, please tell me to what extent you consider it to be a necessary component of a democracy. Use this scale, where 1 stands for "not at all a necessary part of a democracy" and 10 for "a necessary part of a democracy". Religious leaders ultimately determine the interpretation of laws. "
• For each of the following points, can you please tell me whether you think this is okay under no circumstances, okay under any circumstances, or anything in between? Please use the following scale. Politically motivated violence
It is strongly recommended that our results are used with due care and awareness of the statistical margins of error that are detailed in our analysis.
The most important further results are the following: The proportion of people who favour religious authorities in interpreting the law while accepting political violence is alarmingly high in various parts of the world, raising fears of numerous conflicts in the coming years in an increasingly unstable world system. It amounts to more than half of the adult population in Tajikistan (the international record holder), the Philippines, Vietnam, South Korea and Malaysia. In many countries, including NATO and EU member states, it is an alarming 25-50%: Iraq, Macau SAR, Lebanon, Slovakia, Hong Kong SAR, Thailand, Bangladesh, Mexico, Chile, Ukraine, Russia, Bolivia, Ecuador, Spain, Kazakhstan, Lithuania, Guatemala, Nigeria, and Indonesia. It is 15% to 25% in the following states, including core countries of the Western security architecture: United Kingdom, Taiwan ROC, France, Netherlands, Belarus, Argentina, United States, Nicaragua, Peru, Montenegro, Pakistan, Iran, Colombia, Armenia, Tunisia, Portugal, Czech Republic, Poland, and Italy. Only the best-ranked countries Albania, Ethiopia, Iceland, Macedonia, Egypt, Andorra, Germany, Puerto Rico, Cyprus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Denmark, Japan, Estonia, Bulgaria, Austria, Australia, Norway, Slovenia, Kyrgyzstan, Hungary, Sweden, Azerbaijan, Finland, Zimbabwe, Serbia, Jordan, Georgia, Switzerland, New Zealand, Burma, Greece, China, Brazil, and Romania, the potentially fatal combination of mixing religion and law and accepting political violence has a relatively small following of less than 15%.
In the sense of the theses of the late Harvard economist Alberto Alesina (1957-2020), social trust is an essential general production factor of any social order, and the institutions of national security of the democratic West would do well to make good use of this capital of trust that also exists among Muslims living in the West.
These days of the global health emergency due to Covid-19 and the profound crisis of democracy in America which culminated so far in the 01/06 attack on Capitol Hill, which is the 9/11 of American democracy, also present an urgent necessity for social scientists, especially political scientists, to look anew at the countries of the Gulf region. The establishment of diplomatic relations between Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, and the United Arab Emirates, and the State of Israel are a world historic event which calls for a thorough re-thinking of established social scientific knowledge on the Gulf.
The current Covid-19 pandemic will further shift the weight of world economic leadership away from the old and in many ways decaying West to the benefit of China and India (see Chapter 3, Chapter 4 and Chapter 5 of this book); and the Gulf countries, maybe rather unexpectedly, will be forced to assume a much larger role in global leadership than they did before.
With the world now facing the starkest economic depression since the Great Depression of the 1930s in the wake of the current Covid-19 crisis (see Chapter 3 and Chapter 4) we analyze as a starting point the global world political and economic environment the Gulf will most probably face in the near future. The current depression, like in the 1930s, can it lead to global war? What are the lessons we have to draw from the past long cycles of global politics and economics? Our book presents time series analyses of the long cycles of global politics and economics on a global level in the framework of the debates started by the American political scientist Joshua Goldstein in the late 1980s. Prophetically, Goldstein, 1985, 1988 highlighted the strong statistical relationships between global warfare (since 1495) and economic depressions (since 1740, see also Chapter 4 of the present book)). Our updated data series suggest that the current Covid-19 depression casts indeed a very long shadow over the world and brings along with it the rising risk of global confrontations, fitting in with these global cycle theories (see also the more recent volume by Grinin, Korotayev, & Tausch, 2016). All this will substantially affect the Gulf's economies and societies in the near future and will be the first factor to be analyzed here.
With Chinese power now sweeping across the globe, with which visions of global leadership the political and economic elites of the countries of the Gulf will team up? The author analyses the emergent dangerous vacuum of global leadership reflected in current PEW opinion surveys (PEW Spring Survey, 2018) as the second factor shaping the Gulf’s future. Do the visions offered by world political leaders such as Emmanuel Macron, Angela Merkel, Vladimir Putin, the President of the United States (in the PEW Spring Survey 2018 Donald Trump, now removed from of office by the U.S. presidential election of November 3, 2020), or Xi Xinping command the sufficient support of a significant portion of humanity, and what are the multivariate relationships of these support rates? Or is there an emergent real vacuum in global leadership? This emerging vacuum in global leadership is the second factor under scrutiny here, and it will substantially affect the long-term options for the Gulf leadership in the 21st Century. No global leadership –Xi, Trump, Putin, Macron, Merkel, - commanded the sufficient backing of more than 2/3 of the global population, and none seemed to have offered a credible guidance in the current crisis. In the respective Chapter of our book (Chapter 5) we pinpoint the underlying trends and contradictions of what the people of our globe really think about these leading global actors and global constellations. For the countries of the Gulf, this global leadership vacuum, exacerbated by an acute value crisis and the loss of trust in the West, analyzed in Chapter 5 of the present book with the latest data, 2017-2020 from the World Values Survey from 79 countries, implies to have second thoughts about “playing the China card”, since only the free West guarantees the Gulf States a “constitution of liberty” (Hayek) with the sufficient respect for property values and family values. These values are, following Hayek, at the basis of all successful global religions. It also implies that the Gulf countries themselves must assume a positive and strategic role in such institutions as the United Nations, the IMF and the World Bank, the G-20, and hopefully also the OECD.
Our book then focuses on the multivariate analysis of civil society in the countries of Gulf. This is the third factor under consideration here, and we devote the remaining portion of our book to the analysis of this factor (Chapter 6 through to Chapter 8). These analyses and value rankings apply global comparisons, as data about the values of the citizens of our planet and from the Arab region emerge from the representative opinion surveys of the World Values Survey and the Arab Barometer.
To get an adequate picture of the realities of Muslim societies and which factors determine what is on the hearts and minds of ordinary Muslim publics across the globe, we perform multivariate analyses (multiple OLS regressions and promax factor analysis) of the PEW Washington data “The World’s Muslims: Religion, Politics and Society” (2013), the most complete openly accessible survey ever undertaken about Muslim audiences in different countries around the globe. We analyse which factors contributed to the approval or the rejection of terrorist acts. We highlight the close connection between terrorism, the Islamist sharia ideology and overall aspects of Islamism. We show that the two main drivers of Muslim support for suicide bombing are the advocacy of honour killings and the death penalty against Muslims who chose to leave the Muslim community altogether.
Keywords: Relation of Economics to Social Values; Index Numbers and Aggregation; Labor; Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants • Non-labor Discrimination; Economics of Gender • Non-labor Discrimination; Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - General, International, or Comparative; Religion
JEL Classification Codes: A13; C43; F66; J15; J16; N30; Z12
ABSTRACT
The geo-strategic consequences of what the medical profession nowadays calls “a pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin” are nearly beyond our imaginations. In this article we show that the world faces the stark perspective of a global pandemic, which, if it takes the path of the Influenza pandemic of 1918, will cost the lives of around 150 million global citizens (Barro, Ursúa and Weng, 2020). In addition, the current shutdowns will result in a global economic depression which could reach the proportions of the transformation crisis in Russia, which - projected at a global level – would imply around 546 million excess mortalities (Cornia, 2019; Cornia and Paniccià, 2000). The world is confronted with both of these frightening scenarios. The rise of China to a global position of dominance is now irreversible, and seems to revert the world to the geographical and economic order which existed before the age of industrialization.
• The 27 countries which now remain in the European Union after Brexit, in between them they share 34,45% of all global Covid-19 infections and a staggering 48,64% of all global Covid-19 deaths.
• The other stable Western democracies since the post-WW-2 era, which form part and parcel of the community of Western and democratic values, Australia, Canada, Iceland, New Zealand, Norway, Switzerland, United States, Japan, Israel, and United Kingdom, account for none the less than 41,36% of all global Covid-19 infection cases and 38,42% of all global Covid-19 deaths.
• The rest of the world accounts for only 24,19% of all global Covid-19 infection cases and 12,94% of all global Covid-19 deaths.
• The Free West thus is at the worst receiving end of this global crisis.
Our correlations indicate that up to now countries and territories were especially hard hit by the pandemic when they shared the following properties:
1. economic development
2. EU members
3. already badly hit by the previous crisis in 2008
Equally, we can establish that the following countries suffered from the highest fatality rates from the pandemic when they shared these characteristics
1. liberal immigration policy
2. EU members
3. striving for gender justice
Our analysis also analyzed historic parallels to the impending world economic and world political crisis. Italy is at the center stage here, and always was at the worst receiving end of events. The Black Death and the 17th Century and 18th Plagues devasted Italy, the home of the Renaissance and modern European culture, in an incredible way. Also, the cholera pandemics of the 19th Century again devasted Italy and other countries, and greatly contributed to their economic depressions.
The robust lesson of the “Great Depression” accounting, made possible by the Barro and Ursúa, 2011 data is that there are very considerable differences in the way, the Tsunami of the Great Depression hit the countries of the world system in 1929. To recover their pre-depression income level by around + 5%, it took Denmark, Iceland, Korea and Russia only a short lapse of time, and for all practical purposes they recovered already in 1930/31. By 1933/34, Colombia, Greece, Brazil, Finland, Japan, Norway, South Africa, Sweden, and Turkey also recovered again. But only by 1935/36, Italy, Singapore, Taiwan, United Kingdom, Australia, Germany, and New Zealand recovered and had an income level of around +5% above the pre-depression level. In 1937, Portugal and Venezuela followed, while Indonesia only made it in 1938. Even more dramatic, Austria recovered and had an income level of around +5% above the pre-depression level in 1939, the year of the Anschluss, and thus shared the economic misfortunes of Mexico and the Philippines, which also recovered only in 1939. Even worse, Canada and the United States only could recover their income levels in 1940, after the beginning of the Second World War in 1939. And there were still more unfortunate nations, which only recovered later, like (in chronological order): Argentina, Chile, Peru, Switzerland, Uruguay, Belgium, France, Netherlands, China, Spain, Egypt, India, Malaysia, and Sri Lanka.
Finally, we risk a prognosis on the overall societal effects of the pandemic. A lesson of the 1918-1920 pandemic is that pandemic severity contributes to rising income inequality over time. We also attempted to estimate the probable effects of a pandemic on international income convergence/divergence over time. In the UK, it took practically a decade to recover the pre-1918-pandemic income levels, and in Italy, the crisis was even more severe, and Italian democracy collapsed and Benito Mussolini rose to power.
Based on the relative income and impact severity figures of 1918-1920 and today’s relative income levels, the predicted number of victims of three waves of Covid-19, just as they happened in 1918-20, in the poor countries of the world could be horrific and could reach well over 145 million people, with India, China, Ethiopia, Bangladesh and Pakistan each affected by more than 5 million victims.
In our analysis, we also attempt to estimate the predicted global excess mortality from the economic crisis which now sets in. The economic and social Tsunami that swept across Eastern Europe and the former USSR could become a realistic image of what we can expect in the Western countries after Corvid-19. Already the 2008 crisis and the subsequent crises in the Eurozone led to the premature death of 1.76 million people in Europe.
What, then, will be the answer of the European Union to this economic and social Hurricane, which now gathers over the European Mediterranean? We are afraid, that the European Union did not learn the lessons of the crisis in 2008. European elites, especially, are currently already hurrying to reactivate the neo-liberal “rescue umbrella” (in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s language “Rettungsschirm”, i.e. the European Stability Mechanism, ESM) that will drive Italy and Spain even more deeply into economic stagnation and into even deeper austerity. With Germany already quenching the Latin and Mediterranean European partner countries to the wall since the 2008 crisis, European austerity measures and the economic crisis of 2008 also led to a significant weakening of national security on the European continent.
We finally think that the repetition of the Willhelminian, pre-WWI German path of a global Chinese challenge to United States global leadership is inevitable. According to World Bank data, the all decisive point of no return of the Chinese global challenge against the United States of America and also against the European Union was reached in 2012, when Chinese GDP, measured in purchasing power, already surpassed that of its rivals.
Keywords: Covid-19, coronavirus, coronanomics, pandemic, economic impacts
JEL Classification: F40, I15, E1, E6
• The 27 countries which now remain in the European Union after Brexit, in between them they share 34,45% of all global Covid-19 infections and a staggering 48,64% of all global Covid-19 deaths.
• The other stable Western democracies since the post-WW-2 era, which form part and parcel of the community of Western and democratic values, Australia, Canada, Iceland, New Zealand, Norway, Switzerland, United States, Japan, Israel, and United Kingdom, account for none the less than 41,36% of all global Covid-19 infection cases and 38,42% of all global Covid-19 deaths.
• The rest of the world accounts for only 24,19% of all global Covid-19 infection cases and 12,94% of all global Covid-19 deaths.
• The Free West thus is at the worst receiving end of this global crisis.
Our correlations indicate that up to now countries and territories were especially hard hit by the pandemic when they shared the following properties:
1. economic development
2. EU members
3. already badly hit by the previous crisis in 2008
Equally, we can establish that the following countries suffered from the highest fatality rates from the pandemic when they shared these characteristics
1. liberal immigration policy
2. EU members
3. striving for gender justice
Our analysis also analyzed historic parallels to the impending world economic and world political crisis. Italy is at the center stage here, and always was at the worst receiving end of events. The Black Death and the 17th Century and 18th Plagues devasted Italy, the home of the Renaissance and modern European culture, in an incredible way. Also, the cholera pandemics of the 19th Century again devasted Italy and other countries, and greatly contributed to their economic depressions.
The robust lesson of the “Great Depression” accounting, made possible by the Barro and Ursúa, 2011 data is that there are very considerable differences in the way, the Tsunami of the Great Depression hit the countries of the world system in 1929. To recover their pre-depression income level by around + 5%, it took Denmark, Iceland, Korea and Russia only a short lapse of time, and for all practical purposes they recovered already in 1930/31. By 1933/34, Colombia, Greece, Brazil, Finland, Japan, Norway, South Africa, Sweden, and Turkey also recovered again. But only by 1935/36, Italy, Singapore, Taiwan, United Kingdom, Australia, Germany, and New Zealand recovered and had an income level of around +5% above the pre-depression level. In 1937, Portugal and Venezuela followed, while Indonesia only made it in 1938. Even more dramatic, Austria recovered and had an income level of around +5% above the pre-depression level in 1939, the year of the Anschluss, and thus shared the economic misfortunes of Mexico and the Philippines, which also recovered only in 1939. Even worse, Canada and the United States only could recover their income levels in 1940, after the beginning of the Second World War in 1939. And there were still more unfortunate nations, which only recovered later, like (in chronological order): Argentina, Chile, Peru, Switzerland, Uruguay, Belgium, France, Netherlands, China, Spain, Egypt, India, Malaysia, and Sri Lanka.
Finally, we risk a prognosis on the overall societal effects of the pandemic. A lesson of the 1918-1920 pandemic is that pandemic severity contributes to rising income inequality over time. We also attempted to estimate the probable effects of a pandemic on international income convergence/divergence over time. In the UK, it took practically a decade to recover the pre-1918-pandemic income levels, and in Italy, the crisis was even more severe, and Italian democracy collapsed and Benito Mussolini rose to power.
Based on the relative income and impact severity figures of 1918-1920 and today’s relative income levels, the predicted number of victims of three waves of Covid-19, just as they happened in 1918-20, in the poor countries of the world could be horrific and could reach well over 145 million people, with India, China, Ethiopia, Bangladesh and Pakistan each affected by more than 5 million victims.
In our analysis, we also attempt to estimate the predicted global excess mortality from the economic crisis which now sets in. The economic and social Tsunami that swept across Eastern Europe and the former USSR could become a realistic image of what we can expect in the Western countries after Corvid-19. Already the 2008 crisis and the subsequent crises in the Eurozone led to the premature death of 1.76 million people in Europe.
What, then, will be the answer of the European Union to this economic and social Hurricane, which now gathers over the European Mediterranean? We are afraid, that the European Union did not learn the lessons of the crisis in 2008. European elites, especially, are currently already hurrying to reactivate the neo-liberal “rescue umbrella” (in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s language “Rettungsschirm”, i.e. the European Stability Mechanism, ESM) that will drive Italy and Spain even more deeply into economic stagnation and into even deeper austerity. With Germany already quenching the Latin and Mediterranean European partner countries to the wall since the 2008 crisis, European austerity measures and the economic crisis of 2008 also led to a significant weakening of national security on the European continent.
We finally think that the repetition of the Willhelminian, pre-WWI German path of a global Chinese challenge to United States global leadership is inevitable. According to World Bank data, the all decisive point of no return of the Chinese global challenge against the United States of America and also against the European Union was reached in 2012, when Chinese GDP, measured in purchasing power, already surpassed that of its rivals.
Keywords: Covid-19, coronavirus, coronanomics, pandemic, economic impacts
JEL Classification: F40, I15, E1, E6
His publications also include a number of essays for leading economic and foreign policy global think tanks like the
• Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), Tel Aviv, Israel;
• Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS Institute), Moscow;
• IZA Institute of Labour Economics (Bonn),
• Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs (JCPA), Jerusalem, Israel,
• Polish Institute for International Affairs PISM, Warsaw;
• Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, WIIW.
Other think tanks, which published his works, include
• Austrian Institute for International Affairs, Vienna (ÖIIP);
• Austrian National Defence Academy (Vienna), LAVAK;
• Centre Franco-Autrichien pour le rapprochement en Europe CFA/OeFZ, Vienne ;
• Centro Argentino de Estudios Internacionales, CAEI, Buenos Aires;
• Insight Turkey and the SETA Foundation, Ankara;
• Jean Monnet Chairs of the European Union https://eacea.ec.europa.eu/erasmus-plus/actions/jean-monnet/jean-monnet-chairs_en (Jean Monnet Chairs at the University of Catania, Sicily; Italy, Trier, FRG; and Wroclaw, Poland)
• Luxembourg Institute for European and International Studies, LIEIS;
• Rubin Center in International Affairs (formerly Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center) in Herzliya, Israel
Tausch's publications feature(d) as recommended materials for courses at major Universities and centers of higher learning around the world, including the School of International Service, American University, Washington D.C.; and Harvard University.
This is a summary of the major publications
Abstract: This article analyzes patterns of global migration during the last five years, often associated with the “European refugee crisis” since summer 2015, documented by the World Bank Bilateral Migration Matrix data (BMM). Based on cross-national data, gathered and documented for this analysis, the article also provides first quantitative analyses of the predictable effects of the rising migration from the OIC (Organisation of Islamic Cooperation) countries on the societies of the host countries. With around a third of the total immigrant population originating from OIC countries, the growing future Muslim presence in European politics and economics is not a fantasy but a reality. The European Union has become the world’s leading magnet of global migration, with around a fifth of global migration now flowing into the EU countries. Europe seems to have found – as yet – no coherent answer to this. It takes little imagination to realize that the expected monumental shifts in the underlying demographics of Western countries, caused by Muslim mass migration, may have very serious and even dramatic effects on the future support for the state of Israel and on its backing among the populations of the leading Western military and economic powers. The article shows that in the wake of the so-called Arab Spring, rich Arab immigration-hosting countries, hitherto the main recipients of OIC migration, became more restrictive in their immigration policies, while a considerable proportion of OIC migration now turned to Europe, accelerated by the instabilities wrought by the civil war in Syria. Contrary to the assumptions of the dominant “welcome culture” in the media and the academia of most West European countries, the negative social and political consequences of this mass migration, especially for gender relations and the overall inequality dimensions, cannot be overlooked and are spelled out in this article, relying on multivariate analysis of the relevant international cross-national data.
Independent from one’s religious affiliation, it is certain that current global developments, characterized by mass migration and the rise of populism in the industrialized West, suggest to take a closer look again at the values held by global adherents of the Roman Catholic Church, which is the religious organization, which still commands the largest following among the citizens of Western democracies, and which, by its self-definition should be a religious congregation committed to the ideals of neighborly love to the needy, openness for the weakest and human understanding. Do Roman Catholics, practicing their faith, the so-called Dominicantes, who attend each week the Catholic Sunday Church Service, as strictly prescribed in Catholicism, today follow the advice of their Church leaders on issues of migration and xenophobia, and is the Roman Catholic Church really now a remaining bastion of the democratic center in the West? And, furthermore, are Roman Catholics Dominicantes today a global best practice community of religious tolerance, the overcoming of Antisemitism, and the inclusion of sexual minorities like the homosexuals?
1 Combined Failed States Index
2 Civil and Political Liberties violations
3 closing economic gender gap
4 closing educational gender gap
5 closing health and survivial gender gap
6 closing of global gender gap overall score 2009
7 closing political gender gap
8 Corruption avoidance measure
9 Country share in top world 500 Universities
10 Crisis Performance Factor
11 Democracy measure
12 ecological footprint (g ha /cap)
13 economic growth IMF prediction growth rate in 2009
14 economic growth IMF prediction growth rate in 2010
15 economic growth in real terms pc. per annum, 1990-2005
16 Environmental Performance Index (EPI)
17 ESI-Index Environment Sustainability Index (Yale Columbia)
18 female survival probability of surviving to age 65 female
19 gender empowerment index value
20 Global tolerance index
21 Happy life years
22 Happy Planet Index, HPI
23 Human development index (HDI) value 2004
24 Infant mortality 2005
25 Labour force participation rate of migrants (both sexes)
26 Life Expectancy (years)
27 Life Satisfaction (0-10)
28 net exports of ecological footprint gha per person
29 per capita world class universities
30 quintile share income difference between richest and poorest 20%
31 Rule of law
32 tertiary enrollment
33 Total unemployment rate of immigrants (both sexes)
34 unemployment rate
35 cyclones - average number of tropical cyclones per year
36 ln (number of people per mill inhabitants 1980-2000 killed by natural disasters per year+1)
37 Tertiary emigration rate
38 droughts - average number of droughts per year
39 earthquakes - average number of earthquakes per year
40 Carbon emissions per million US dollars GDP
41 Carbon emissions per capita
42 % women in government, all levels
43 % world population
44 2000 Economic Freedom Score
45 Absolute latitude
46 Annual population growth rate, 1975-2005 (%)
47 comparative price levels (US=1.00)
48 foreign savings rate
49 FPZ (free production zones) employment as % of total population
50 ln GDP per capita
51 ln GDP per capita ^2
52 Membership in the Islamic Conference
53 military expenditures per GDP
54 military personnel rate ln (MPR+1)
55 MNC outward investments (stock) per GDP
56 MNC PEN - stock of Inward FDI per GDP
57 MNC PEN: DYN MNC PEN 1995-2005
58 Openness-Index, 1990 (export-share per GDP + import-share per GDP)
59 population density
60 public education expenditure per GNP
61 UNDP education index
62 worker remittance inflows as % of GDP
63 Immigration - Share of population 2005 (%)
64 Muslim population share per total population
65 net international migration rate, 2005-2010
66 Years of membership in the EU, 2010
67 years of membership in EMU, 2010
68 social security expenditure per GDP average 1990s (ILO)
69 overall 30 variable development index
70 overall 35 variable development index
71 overall 35 variable development index, based on 7 dimensions
72 avoiding net trade of ecological footprint gha per person
Latvia
Croatia
Slovenia
Albania
Bosnia
Korea, South
South Africa
Spain
Uruguay
are 5% or more rejecting Jewish neighbors than overall Roman Catholics; and 30% or more practicing Roman Catholics reject to have Jewish neighbors in the following countries:
Korea, South
South Africa
Slovak R
Nigeria
Bosnia
Venezuela
The countries with the least Antisemitism among practicing Roman Catholics (10% or less) are
United Kingdom
Netherlands
Argentina
United States
Germany
Canada
India
France
Austria
while in
Czech Rep.
United States
United Kingdom
Mexico
Argentina
practicing Roman Catholics are less antisemitic than overall baptized Roman Catholics. So, practically only a few Catholic communities live up to the expectations of Nostra Aetate
We also calculated a Nostra Aetate Index, combining the results of our Surveys.
The catholic communities in the lead are:
Czech Republic
United States
United Kingdom
Portugal
Argentina
JEL Classification Codes: C43; F50; Z12; D73;
Keywords: index numbers and aggregation; international relations; international political economy; religion; bureaucracy; administrative processes; corruption
We think that it would be wrong to define radical Islamism only in terms of the identification with outright support for the immediate “bomb-throwing terror”, while neglecting the underlying ideological and dangerous radicalism and also ongoing radicalization of such organizations as the Muslim Brotherhood or the Turkish Milli Görüs, which both start, like the most radicalized factions of Islamist terrorism, from the intense hatred of “Jews and Free Masons” and Western civilization as such. These groups appear for many on both sides of the Atlantic as “moderate Islamists” and worthy partners of dialogue, while in reality they provide the fertile ground from which the armed terrorist groups can develop. We highlight the role of the omnipresent hatred of America and the West which we term “Occidentalism”. We also point to the intense competition between Islamist and secular, Marxist terror groups which still exist in the Middle East and the entire Muslim world, and the Sunni/Shia competition as well as regional quests for hegemony. With Bassam Tibi we also analyze the close connection between the Islamist sharia ideology and the overall aspects of Islamism. Based on PEW data, we show that the two main drivers of Muslim opposition against suicide bombing are the rejection of honor killing and the death penalty against Muslims who chose to leave the Muslim community altogether. Our promax factor analyses and cross-national data about the drivers of the Global Terrorism Index support our approach.
Keywords: Relation of Economics to Social Values; Index Numbers and Aggregation; Labor; Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants • Non-labor Discrimination; Economics of Gender • Non-labor Discrimination; Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - General, International, or Comparative; Religion
JEL Classification Codes: A13; C43; F66; J15; J16; N30; Z12
Our data are from two sets of such reliable and regularly repeated global opinion surveys: The World Values Survey (WVS) and the European Social Survey (ESS). Our statistical calculations were performed by the routine and standard SPSS statistical program (SPSS XXIII), and relied on the so-called oblique rotation of the factors, underlying the correlation matrix. In each comparison, we evaluated the democratic civil society commitment of the overall population and of the practicing Roman Catholics, i.e. those Catholics who attend Sunday Mass regularly, the so-called dominicantes.
JEL Classification Numbers: C43, F5, Z12, D73
Keywords: C43 - Index Numbers and Aggregation; F5 - International Relations
and International Political Economy; Z12 – Religion; D73 - Bureaucracy;
Administrative Processes in Public Organizations; Corruption
antisemitism, the economic and social situation, religion data, and opinions on terrorism among global Muslim publics based on the global Pew Research Centre surveys. Finally, we re-evaluate Arab Barometer survey data on ‘moderate Islamism’ and its relationship to antisemitism. All our new quantitative evidence supports the hy-pothesis developed in this essay from the literature that Islamism is deeply connected to antisemitism. Our data also indicate that Mus-lim dissatisfaction and dissent with society, often mentioned as the drivers of Islamism, are in fact connected to Muslim secularism and a distance from Islamism. Channeling this dissent in secular left-and right-wing protest parties would be an important future task in the stabilization of Arab and Muslim democracies.
Juan Diez-Nicolas, Profesor emeritus de sociología, Universidad Complutense de Madrid
Christian Ghymers, Profesor de Ciencias Economicas en el ICHEC de Bruselas (Brussels Management School)
Peter Herrmann, Director Académico del Instituto Eurispes (Istituto di Studi Politici, economici e Sociali Osservatorio Europeo sulla Qualità social) en Roma.
Bajo colaboración de Alfonso Galindo Lucas, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad de Cádiz, España
En la víspera de la renuncia del Papa Benedicto XVI, anunciada el 11 de febrero de 2013, dijimos en una publicación de un nuevo e importante “think tank” en Argentina a finales de noviembre de 2010 en algún lugar que
este libro es [...] una clara invitación a las fuerzas "iluminadas" dentro de la Iglesia Católica, de buscar, en tales situaciones, el ecumenismo de la Ilustración con las mejores fuerzas de las Iglesias cristianas, católicas y protestantes por igual, con el judaísmo y el con el Islam, y con las corrientes humanistas y democráticas dentro de otras religiones del mundo y también entre los no creyentes, para buscar alternativas humanistas y socio-liberales alternativas a la crisis actual y para salvar la democracia contra las nuevas tendencias autoritarias en muchos países.
El terremoto verdadero de la perestroika y glasnost, efectuado por los cambios actuales en la Iglesia católica romana, iniciada por la renuncia del Papa Benedicto XVI y la elección del jesuita argentino Jorge Bergoglio al Papado como Papa Francisco I, es un evento mundial, que es de enorme importancia para la política y la economía mundial al mismo tiempo y no sólo para los católicos romanos y los religiosos en general en nuestro mundo. En vista de estos hechos, Arno Tausch y Christian Ghymers, los autores del estudio bonarense (2011) ‚El Papa ¿Cuántas Divisiones Tiene? Sondeo Global del Catolicismo Mundial Según el ‘World Values Survey’ y el ‘European Social Survey’’ E-Book N° 49, Centro Argentino de Estudios Internacionales: http://www.caei.com.ar/es/irebooks.htm decidieron, publicar este estudio sobre el catolicismo romano global como un libro, junto con nuevos materiales sobre el tema escritos por el profesor Juan Diez Nicolas, profesor emeritus de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid, y fundador de los estudios basados en el World Values Survey en idioma Castellano, y el profesor Peter Herrmann, actualmente Director Académico del Instituto Eurispes (Istituto di Studi Politici, economici e Sociali Osservatorio Europeo sulla Qualità social) en Roma. Los autores agradecen al Centro Argentino de Estudios Internacionales el permiso de publicar este estudio como un libro.