rodolfo metulini
Università di Bologna, Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche "Paolo Fortunati", PhD Student in Statistical Methodology for Scientific Research
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Comunico con piacere che è stato bandito un assegno di ricerca 12 mesi (rinnovabile) in SECS-S/02 presso l’Università di Bergamo e nell’ambito del Progetto PRIN/PNRR 2022 “SIGNUM: Study of mobile phone siGNals for the evalUation of the interconnections between Mobility and the environment in Lombardia”, di cui trovate maggiori dettagli qui: https://lnkd.in/dd9VPF9A
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7143579912082288640/
I currently serve the Department of Economics at University of Bergamo as Assistant Professor (RTD-B).
I did my Bachelor and my Master in Statistics and Economics (Dept. of Statistical Sciences P. Fortunati) at University of Bologna, and I obtained there, in 2013, a Phd in Statistical Methodology for the Scientific Research.
In the past, I served University of Salerno (Assistant Professor, Jul 2019 - Jul 2022), University of Brescia (Post-Doc, Lug 2016 - Giu 2019), S.Anna Pisa (Post-Doc, Sep 2015 - Jul 2016) and IMT School for Advanced Studies (Post-Doc, Jun 2013 - Sept 2015).
My research activity focuses on:
• Parametric and semi-parametric spatio-temporal statistical methods for origin-destination data, with application to mobile phone data and mobility
• Sports statistics and data analytics.
• Statistical learning methods for matrix completion
I have published in several international journals (AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Physica A, Annals of Operations Research, Social Indicator Research, PlosOne, Econometrics, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Journal of Applied Statistics, Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, Electronic Journal of Applied Statistical Analysis, Statistics & Applications, The World Economy, Advances in Water Resources, Economia Politica).
Supervisors: Massimo Riccaboni (IMT Lucca), Roberto Patuelli (UNIBO), Paola Zuccolotto (UNIBS), Maurizio Carpita (UNIBS), and Francesco Giordano (UNISA)
Phone: 3491617597
Comunico con piacere che è stato bandito un assegno di ricerca 12 mesi (rinnovabile) in SECS-S/02 presso l’Università di Bergamo e nell’ambito del Progetto PRIN/PNRR 2022 “SIGNUM: Study of mobile phone siGNals for the evalUation of the interconnections between Mobility and the environment in Lombardia”, di cui trovate maggiori dettagli qui: https://lnkd.in/dd9VPF9A
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7143579912082288640/
I currently serve the Department of Economics at University of Bergamo as Assistant Professor (RTD-B).
I did my Bachelor and my Master in Statistics and Economics (Dept. of Statistical Sciences P. Fortunati) at University of Bologna, and I obtained there, in 2013, a Phd in Statistical Methodology for the Scientific Research.
In the past, I served University of Salerno (Assistant Professor, Jul 2019 - Jul 2022), University of Brescia (Post-Doc, Lug 2016 - Giu 2019), S.Anna Pisa (Post-Doc, Sep 2015 - Jul 2016) and IMT School for Advanced Studies (Post-Doc, Jun 2013 - Sept 2015).
My research activity focuses on:
• Parametric and semi-parametric spatio-temporal statistical methods for origin-destination data, with application to mobile phone data and mobility
• Sports statistics and data analytics.
• Statistical learning methods for matrix completion
I have published in several international journals (AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Physica A, Annals of Operations Research, Social Indicator Research, PlosOne, Econometrics, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Journal of Applied Statistics, Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, Electronic Journal of Applied Statistical Analysis, Statistics & Applications, The World Economy, Advances in Water Resources, Economia Politica).
Supervisors: Massimo Riccaboni (IMT Lucca), Roberto Patuelli (UNIBO), Paola Zuccolotto (UNIBS), Maurizio Carpita (UNIBS), and Francesco Giordano (UNISA)
Phone: 3491617597
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Papers in International Journals by rodolfo metulini
Book chapters by rodolfo metulini
Working papers by rodolfo metulini
Based on the CCN, the network measures, i.e., the shortest path
length and the communicability, are computed to capture the indirect
channel of FDI. Empirically we find that corporate control has a positive
effect on trade both directly and indirectly. The result is robust with different specifications and estimation strategies. Hence, our paper provides strong empirical evidence of the indirect effects of FDI on trade. Moreover, we identify a number of interplaying factors such as regional trade agreements and the region of Asia. We also find that the indirect effects are more pronounced for manufacturing sectors than for primary sectors such as oil extraction and agriculture
virtual water trade is comparable to that of oil and gas, the archetypal natural resources, in determining interstate conflicts’ probability
modelling of trade. However, no specific treatment has been developed for cases in which many zero flows are present. This paper contributes to the literature in two ways. First, by employing a stepwise selection criterion for spatial filters that is based on robust (sandwich) p-values and does not require likelihood-based indicators. In this respect, we develop an ad hoc backward stepwise function in R. Second, using this function, we select a reduced set of spatial filters that properly accounts for importer-side and exporter-side specific spatial effects, both at the count and the logit processes of zero-inflated methods. Applying this
estimation strategy to a cross-section of bilateral trade flows between a set of worldwide countries for the year 2000, we find that our specification outperforms the benchmark models in terms of model fitting, both considering the AIC and in predicting zero (and small) flows.
Economies and it is commonly used in explaining the trade flow
between countries. Recently, several studies have showed the importance
of taking into account the spatial effect. Spatial Econometric
techniques meet this matter, proposing the specification of a set of
models and estimators. We will make use of these Spatial Econometric
techniques in order to estimate a Spatial Gravity of Trade for
a 22-year-long panel of the OECD countries. The aim, therefore, is
twofold: on one hand, we are going to use the newest Spatial Econometric
techniques in a field where they aren't widely applicated. On
the other hand, we provide an updated interpretation of the behaviour
of the International Trade in an OECD context, taking into account
potential spatial spillover effect due to the third country dependence,
and the effects of the migratory phenomenon.
increased the number of migrants (in particular from the Near East). With this paper we analyze, by mean of the gravity equation, the relation between VW trade and migration from an Econometric
point of view. We propose and determine a measure of VW impact for each migrant, which we call Vitual Water Suitcase. We use this measure to conclude with some policy recommendation.
Based on the CCN, the network measures, i.e., the shortest path
length and the communicability, are computed to capture the indirect
channel of FDI. Empirically we find that corporate control has a positive
effect on trade both directly and indirectly. The result is robust with different specifications and estimation strategies. Hence, our paper provides strong empirical evidence of the indirect effects of FDI on trade. Moreover, we identify a number of interplaying factors such as regional trade agreements and the region of Asia. We also find that the indirect effects are more pronounced for manufacturing sectors than for primary sectors such as oil extraction and agriculture
virtual water trade is comparable to that of oil and gas, the archetypal natural resources, in determining interstate conflicts’ probability
modelling of trade. However, no specific treatment has been developed for cases in which many zero flows are present. This paper contributes to the literature in two ways. First, by employing a stepwise selection criterion for spatial filters that is based on robust (sandwich) p-values and does not require likelihood-based indicators. In this respect, we develop an ad hoc backward stepwise function in R. Second, using this function, we select a reduced set of spatial filters that properly accounts for importer-side and exporter-side specific spatial effects, both at the count and the logit processes of zero-inflated methods. Applying this
estimation strategy to a cross-section of bilateral trade flows between a set of worldwide countries for the year 2000, we find that our specification outperforms the benchmark models in terms of model fitting, both considering the AIC and in predicting zero (and small) flows.
Economies and it is commonly used in explaining the trade flow
between countries. Recently, several studies have showed the importance
of taking into account the spatial effect. Spatial Econometric
techniques meet this matter, proposing the specification of a set of
models and estimators. We will make use of these Spatial Econometric
techniques in order to estimate a Spatial Gravity of Trade for
a 22-year-long panel of the OECD countries. The aim, therefore, is
twofold: on one hand, we are going to use the newest Spatial Econometric
techniques in a field where they aren't widely applicated. On
the other hand, we provide an updated interpretation of the behaviour
of the International Trade in an OECD context, taking into account
potential spatial spillover effect due to the third country dependence,
and the effects of the migratory phenomenon.
increased the number of migrants (in particular from the Near East). With this paper we analyze, by mean of the gravity equation, the relation between VW trade and migration from an Econometric
point of view. We propose and determine a measure of VW impact for each migrant, which we call Vitual Water Suitcase. We use this measure to conclude with some policy recommendation.
Recently, several studies have showed the importance of taking into account the spatial effect. The standard procedure until now was to account the transport cost using geographical distance as a proxy, and the spatial effect trough a weighted matrix constructed on inverse distance. Two issues follow from this standard procedure: the first regards the biasness of the distance if used as a proxy of the transport costs, the second is related to the collinearity emerging if we use distance twice. So, several attempt were made in the recent literature having the scope of remove the distance. We propose a theoretically consistent procedure based on Anderson, Van Wincoop derivation model, and some ad-hoc tests, relating to this attempt. The empirical results based on a 22-years panel of OECD countries are conforting, and they allow us to estimate the model without the distance, if properly replaced by a set of fixed effects.
Il rapporto attinge da svariate fonti esterne, tra le quali possiamo citare ISTAT, Banca d’Italia, Camera di Commercio e Agenzia delle Entrate, mentre la parte centrale dei risultati che verranno presentati sono stati estratti dal database Orbis. Il database mette a disposizione indicatori economici di bilancio (quali ricavi operativi e capitali investiti) per 7409 imprese di diverso ordine e dimensione presenti in provincia. Il rapporto si snoda lungo 4 capitoli principali, ognuno dei quali si pone obiettivi specifici ma interconnessi tra loro:
Nel primo capitolo viene presentata la situazione demografica del territorio, in termini di popolazione residente e sua distribuzione per fasce d’età e istruzione, saldo naturale e quota di immigrati.
Il secondo capitolo fa luce sulla situazione economica della città, con un'analisi dettagliata relativa alla quantificazione delle imprese e del loro trend in termini di ricavi operativi, numero di dipendenti, capitali investiti, Return on Equity (ROE) e Return on Assets (ROA).
Il terzo capitolo entra in maggiore dettaglio, presentando i risultati dei principali indicatori economici a livello settoriale e per macro aree geografiche (Piana di Lucca, Versilia, Garfagnana, Media Valle). Vengono poi analizzati i settori che nel periodo studiato (2007-2013) sono stati maggiormente competitivi. Inoltre, vengono presentati altri indicatori sulla qualità della vita, relativi all’occupazione e al livello di imprenditorialità, investimenti in formazione e propensione all’export. Chiude una sezione dedicata al turismo. Si fa anche luce sulla distribuzione geografica delle imprese, allo scopo di capire come la città di Lucca riveste un ruolo centrale nell’economia del territorio, considerando le dotazioni infrastrutturali in relazione all’afflusso turistico.
Il quarto capitolo ha lo scopo di inquadrare la situazione immobiliare lucchese rispetto al contesto regionale e nazionale, relativamente ai prezzi di acquisto e affitto, l’indice di affordability e con particolare riguardo all’analisi dei “contenitori” vuoti, per il quale viene svolta una stima degli immobili inutilizzati
repeatedly over time, generating spatio-temporal data. These devices are nowadays intensively used
in team sports to capture the trajectories of players and /or the ball -sometimes together with playby-
play recording the time of match events - with the aim of infer useful informations to coaches in
addition to traditional statistics.
In our application to basketball, we collected sensor data related to the location of players during
all the official matches played by a team militant in the “C-Gold” league in Italy. Data reports x-axis
(width), y-axis (length) and z-axis (height) coordinates for a time series recorded at millisecond level.
The play-by-play reports relevant events (such as made shots, fouls, etc ...) together with their moment
in time.
The aim of this study is to find any regularities and synchronization in basketball players movements,
with the final objective of extracting insights on the relations between particular spatial patterns
and the performance of the team. By means of different statistical techniques, such as Cluster Analysis,
MultiDimensional Scaling (MDS) and Principal Components Analysis (PCA) we split the match
in a number of groups, each identifying homogeneous spatial relations among players in the field.
These methods permit to characterize groups in terms of some relevant properties, such as differences
in spacings among players, whether each group corresponds to defensive or offensive actions,
or in terms of the transition probability from a certain group to another one. Results of this kind of
analysis are the starting point for identifying a possible relationship between the identified patterns -in
terms of players’ spatial relations- and the team’s performance -in terms of field goals percentage or
other relevant match events.
Plots are reported for the years 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010.
Direct Investment (FDI) in the world economy. First we study the prob-
lem in a multiple-network perspective, showing that the two networks
are strongly correlated and that such correlation can be mostly explained by country economic/demographic size and geographical distance. Then, using the Heckman selection model with a gravity equation, we conrm this result and also nd that the industry position in the Global Supply Chain (GSC) and countries distance give rise to non-linear corrections: in particular we nd that the more goods are downstream or countries are further away, the more trade and FDI tend to be complements. Next we investigate the eects of Regional Trade Agreements and the special case of Asian countries. Finally we distinguish the cases of the three main economic macro-sectors, nding that trade and FDI are complements in manufacturing, but substitutes in services.
both direct and indirect network effects. We analyze trade of diferentiated and homogeneous
goods using an econometric approach inspired by spatial econometrics, proposing a new
way to define country neighbors based on the most intense links in the migration network.
We find that migration significantly affects trade across categories both in direct and in
indirect way. The indirect impact highlights a stronger competitive effect of third country
All the talks are supported by script codes, in R language.
Tale analisi è volta a misurare la copertura dei costi relativi all’acqua, sostenuti dai gestori dei servizi idrici entro il perimetro dell’area di Bacino del fiume Serchio. Tale lavoro deve essere svolto per legge a seguito della direttiva 2000/60/CE della Comunità Europea, per il Bacino del Serchio, cosi come per tutti i bacini fluviali presenti in Italia ed in Europa. Nel dettaglio, nel Capitolo 1 vengono definiti i costi cosi come vengono strutturati dalla direttiva (costi finanziari, della risorsa, ambientali), e i metodi di stima (n.d.r metodi tariffari) definiti allo scopo di una corretta misurazione dei costi. il Capitolo 2 presenta una caratterizzazione del tessuto socio-economica e demografica all’interno dell’rea di Bacino. Il Capitolo 3 copre l’argomento della copertura dei costi in ambito civile, con una dettagliata presentazione dei gestori locali. Il Capitolo 4 sposta l’attenzione sulla copertura dei costi in ambito agricolo, e propone inoltre un metodo innovativo per la misurazione del costo della risorsa idrica basato sulla comparazione del margine lordo d’impresa sulla base della percentuale di superficie irrigata. Il Capitolo 5 conclude il documento introducendo l’aspetto del costo della risorsa idrica in ambito industriale.
of people using mobile phone (Carpita, Simonetto, 2014) are source of very large data. Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM), which is currently the largest operator in Italy in this sector, thanks to a research agreement with the Statistical Office of the Municipality of Brescia, provided to us
about two years (April 2014 to June 2016, n ' 700) of Daily Mobile Phone Density Profiles (DMPDPs) for the Province of Brescia in the form of a regular grid of 923 x 607 cells each 15 minutes.
In order to find regularities and detect anomalies in the flow of people’s presences, this work aims to cluster similar DMPDPs, where each DMPDP is characterized by both the 2-D spatial component (i.e. 923 x 607 dimensions, one for each cell of the grid) and by the temporal
component (i.e. each cell has repeated values in time, for a total of 96 daily dimensions per cell). So, while each DMPDP counts for p ' 50 millions (923 x 607 x 96) of space-time dimensions, time and economic constraints prevent us from having a longer time series of DMPDPs. In
this terms, to group DMPDPs configures as an High Dimensional Low Sample Size (HDLSS) problem, since p is smaller than n.
We propose a mixed-approach procedure that we apply to the city of Brescia. First, borrowing the method of the Histogram of Oriented Gradients (HOG) from the Image Clustering discipline (Tomasi, 2012), we perform a reduction of the DMPDPs dimensionality computing
their features extractions. In doing so, we perform some tuning on the HOG parameters in order to reduce as much as possible the DMPDPs dimensionality while preserving as much as possible the information contained in the extracted features. With this approach we preserve both the spatial and the temporal components of the DMPDPs. Then, using the HOG features extractions, we group DMPDPs by applying - and by testing the feasibility of - different clustering
approaches for large data. We finally represent each cluster's DMPDP in terms of tensor decomposition.
of players and /or the ball, sometimes together with play-by-play recording the time of match events, with the aim
to supply coaches, experts and analysts with useful information in addition to traditional statistics. To find any
regularities and synchronizations in players‘ trajectories, and to study their relationship with team's performance,
however, is a complex task, because of the strong interdependencies among players in the court and because of external
factors that can influence players. To this aim, a variety of methods has been proposed in Sport Science literature,
which borrow from the disciplines of Machine Learning, Network and Complex Systems, Geographical Information Systems,
Computer Vision and Statistics. In this seminar, with an application to basketball, I propose a methodological approach that
can be generalized to other team sports. I first demonstrate the usefulness of a visual tool approach in order to extract
preliminar insights from trajectories, then, I use data mining techniques such as Cluster Analysis and Multidimensional
Scaling to decompose the game into homogeneous phases in terms of spatial relations. To conclude, I present specific
research questions, such as: i) who is the most influencing player of the team? ii) how much each player influences the others?
iii) how much trajectories are determined by trajectories of other players and by external factors? where the adoption of
methods traditionally used in Spatial Statistics and Spatial Econometrics could have a potential. In this regard, the seminar
is also intended as a “platform” to launch new research challenges and to search for collaboration.
Acknowledgements: The research is carried out thanks to sensor data made available by MyAgonism.
Enjoy!
http://www.mathpubs.com/detail/1611.0...
http://bodai.unibs.it/BDSports/
http://bodai.unibs.it/public/index.php
in relation to team performance in the context of big data analytics. A specific research question regards whether certain patterns of space among
players affect team performance, from both an offensive and a defensive perspective. Using a time series of basketball players coordinates, we
focus on the dynamics of the surface area of the five players on the court with a twofold purpose: (i) to give tools allowing a detailed description and
analysis of a game with respect to surface areas dynamics and (ii) to investigate its influence on the points made by both the team and the opponent.
We propose a three-step procedure integrating different statistical modelling approaches. Specifically, we first employ a Markov Switching Model
(MSM) to detect structural changes in the surface area. Then, we perform descriptive analyses in order to highlight associations between regimes
and relevant game variables. Finally, we assess the relation between the regime probabilities and the scored points by means of Vector Auto
Regressive (VAR)models. We carry out the proposed procedure using real data and, in the analyzed case studies, we find that structural changes
are strongly associated to offensive and defensive game phases and that there is some association between the surface area dynamics and the points
scored by the team and the opponent.
court map is an important topic in basketball analytics, in order to define both game
strategies and training programmes.
In this contribution we propose a method based on regression trees, aimed to define
a partition of the court in rectangles with maximally different scoring probabilities.
Each analysed team/player has its/his own partition, so comparisons can be made
among different teams/players. In addition, shooting efficiency measures computed
within the rectangles can be used to define spatial scoring performance indicators.
people is a crucial aspect for the well-being of an urban area. We use mobile
phone data as a proxy for the total number of people (Carpita & Simonetto
2014), with the specific aim of computing spatio-temporal region specific indicators.
Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM), which is the largest operator in Italy,
thanks to a research agreement with the Statistical Office of the Municipality
of Brescia, provided to us about two years (April 2014 to June 2016) of High-
Frequency Daily Mobile Phone Density Profiles (DMPDPs) in the form of a
regular grid polygon each 15 minutes. Densities have to be rescaled in order
to express the total amount of people rather than just TIM users. Separately
for selected regions in the province of Brescia, characterized by being either
working or residential areas, we group similar DMPDPs and we characterize
groups by their spatial and temporal components. In doing so, we propose a
mixed-approach procedure. First, borrowing the method of the Histogram of
Oriented Gradients (HOG, Tomasi 2012), we perform a reduction of the DMPDPs
dimensionality computing their features extractions. With this method,
we convert a 2D spatial object into a 1D vector of data, by preserving the spatial
relationship contained in the data. Secondly, we stack in a single vector all
the HOG features of the same day and, by applying a high-dimensional cluster
analysis that accounts for the curse of dimensionality, we group days. Third,
for each group, we reshape the data in order to form a 3D array with dimension
a (quarters), b (days) and c (space), and we apply a Canonycal Polyadic
(CP) tensor decomposition (CANDECOMP/PARAFAC, Kolda & Bader 2009)
to extract three indicators related to the dynamic of the presences along the
space, the days and the quarters.
players and the whole team. The literature proposes a number of tools for both
offence and defence scenarios. Data coming from tracking location of players, in
this respect, may be used to enrich the amount of useful information. In basketball,
however, actions are interleaved with inactive periods. This paper describes
a methodological approach to automatically identify active periods during a game
and to classify them as offensive or defensive. The method is based on the application
of thresholds to players kinematic parameters, whose values undergo a “tuning”
strategy similar to Receiver Operating Characteristic curves, using a “ground truth”
extracted from the video of the games.
geo-localization of people by mobile phone, by quantifying the number of people
at a given moment in time, enriches the amount of useful information for “smart”
(cities) evaluations. However, using Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM) data, we are able
to characterize the spatio-temporal dynamic of the presences in the city of just TIM
users. A strategy to estimate total presences is needed. In this paper we propose a
strategy to extrapolate the number of total people by using TIM data only. To do so,
we apply a spatial record linkage of mobile phone data with administrative archives
using the number of residents at the level of “sezione di censimento”.
I sistemi di posizionamento globali (GPS) sono ampiamente utilizzati in campo sportivo in quanto ci permettono di rilevare in diversi istanti temporali il posizionamento dei giocatori in campo, allo scopo di fornire indicazioni utili in ag-giunta alle statistiche tradizionali. Con un'applicazione sulla pallacanestro, utilizzi-amo una Cluster Analysis allo scopo di suddividere la partita in gruppi omogenei in termini di relazioni spaziali tra giocatori. Identifichiamo inoltre se ciascun gruppo corrisponde ad azioni di attacco o di difesa, e stimiamo le matrici di transizione che quantificano la probabilità di passaggio da un gruppo ad un'altro.
of players during the game in relation to team performance. State of the art tracking systems
produce spatio-temporal traces of players that have facilitated a variety of research
aimed to extract insights from trajectories. Several methods borrowed from machine learning,
network and complex systems, geographic information system, computer vision and
statistics have been proposed. After having reviewed the state of the art in those niches
of literature aiming to extract useful information to analysts and experts in terms of relation
between players’ trajectories and team performance, this paper presents preliminary
results from analysing trajectories data and sheds light on potential future research in this
field of study. In particular, using convex hulls, we find interesting regularities in players’
movement patterns
Al giorno d’oggi stiamo vivendo, magari senza accorgercene, in un mondo globalizzato nel quale il fabbisogno energetico della popolazione mondiale è intimamente legata alla disponibilità di acqua.
Forse ci aspetteremmo di consumare solo l’acqua che beviamo (uno o due litri al giorno), invece le cifre che la FAO ci propone riguardante l’acqua che inconsapevolmente consumiamo sono del tutto diverse: Ogni prodotto che noi consumiamo necessità di tanta acqua affinchè esso sia prodotto. Occorrono infatti più di 1.000 litri d'acqua virtuale per produrre un chilo di grano, e circa 14.000 litri di acqua virtuale per ottenere un chilo di carne. Alla fine dei conti, ognuno di noi consuma mediamente 2.000 litri di acqua virtuale al giorno.
Provate a calcolare il consumo annuale moltiplicando per 365, il risultato è sorprendente: 730 mila litri di acqua per ogni persona. Basta sommare gli 87 mila abitanti di Lucca per ottenere un numero difficile da pronunciare!
Tuttavia, come è facile pensare, la disponibilità di acqua è limitata, soprattutto in certe aree calde e desertiche, cosicchè diventa necessario il commercio internazionale di acqua e di prodotti che contengono acqua, al fine di garantire il sostentamento di tutti noi.
Ma come avviene il commercio di acqua? Ci sono o meno delle dinamiche che dirottano l’acqua verso i paesi più ricchi a discapito dei paesi poveri? Come può essere reso più efficiente? E come si inserisce in tutto questo la discussione relativa alla privatizzazione dell’acqua, che è già una commodity in Australia? E come influisce il cambiamento climatico? Infine, cosa possiamo fare, ciascuno di noi, per ridurre il consumo di acqua? … sono alcune delle domande che ci poniamo.
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