It has been strongly recognized that increasing use of information technology (IT) in business op... more It has been strongly recognized that increasing use of information technology (IT) in business operations has increased the risk of cascading failures in interdependent critical infrastructures (CIs). Dependencies are primarily due to services and resources that CIs must provide one another to maintain vital functions of the society. From a crisis management perspective, magnitudes of such interrelationships strongly rely on specific nature of disruptive events. This paper adopts a system dynamics modelling approach for simulation and analysis of disruption scenarios. We seek to characterize CI disruptions according to relevant aspects of risk assessment and response coordination as well as environmental, human, economic and other impact factors. Results are key to the design of a cyber incident early warning system for CI operators. Critical Infrastructure Protection. Cyber Incident Early Warning System. System Dynamics Modeling.
Governments have strongly recognized that the proper functioning of critical infrastructures (CIs... more Governments have strongly recognized that the proper functioning of critical infrastructures (CIs) highly determines the societal welfare. If a failed infrastructure is unable to deliver services and products to the others, disruptive effects can cascade into the larger system of CIs. In turn, decision-makers need to understand causal interdependencies and nonlinear feedback behaviors underlying the entire CIs network toward more effective crisis response plans. This paper proposes a novel block building modeling approach based on System Dynamics (SD) to capture complex dynamics of CIs disruptions. We develop a SD model and apply it to hypothetical scenarios for simulation-based impact analysis of single and multiple disruptive events. With a special focus on temporal aspects of system resilience, we also demonstrate how the model can be used for dynamic resilience assessment. The model supports crisis managers in understanding scenarios of disruptions and forecasting their impacts to improve strategic planning in Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP).
The boarding process is a time consuming processes and relevant not only for the airlines, but al... more The boarding process is a time consuming processes and relevant not only for the airlines, but also for the passengers. Disruptions during the boarding are a cause of losses for airlines business, creating also stressful situations to the travellers. Many ingenious and algorithmic procedures have been found to speed-up the boarding process. However, airlines nowadays prefer to apply traditional boarding policies. In this paper we analyze boarding disruptions due to carry-on luggage applying a System Dynamics model developed in our previous work. Simulation results demonstrate why these disruptions need to be considered by airlines to stay on track. In this regards, innovative carry-on luggage policies currently applied by airlines are presented; with a special emphasis on the unique case of Spirit Airlines. With this design study of the boarding process we study the system dynamics as a means to model disruptions and crisis of processes and the implications for business models.
Information Privacy, Cyber threats and Cyber crime seem to be ubiquitous in the news. This articl... more Information Privacy, Cyber threats and Cyber crime seem to be ubiquitous in the news. This article addresses publicly available information on IT-security, its availability and quality and presents an analysis of publicly available IT-security information for mobile devices in Germany. The contributions are the method for data analysis and the results. We conclude that there are hardly any patterns in terms of timeliness, content and quality. Users with an interest in IT security cannot rely on a single news channel.
The relevance of modeling epidemics' spread goes beyond the academic. The mathematical understand... more The relevance of modeling epidemics' spread goes beyond the academic. The mathematical understanding of infectious diseases has become an important tool in policy making. Our research interest is modeling of dynamics in crisis situations. This paper explores the extant body of literature of mathematical models in epidemiology, with particular emphasis on theories and methodologies used beyond them. Our goal is to identify core building blocks of models and research patterns to model the dynamics of crisis situations such as epidemics. The wide range of applications of epidemic models to many other disciplines that show biological analogies, makes this paper helpful for many modelers and mathematicians within the broader field of Crisis Management.
It has been strongly recognized that increasing use of information technology (IT) in business op... more It has been strongly recognized that increasing use of information technology (IT) in business operations has increased the risk of cascading failures in interdependent critical infrastructures (CIs). Dependencies are primarily due to services and resources that CIs must provide one another to maintain vital functions of the society. From a crisis management perspective, magnitudes of such interrelationships strongly rely on specific nature of disruptive events. This paper adopts a system dynamics modelling approach for simulation and analysis of disruption scenarios. We seek to characterize CI disruptions according to relevant aspects of risk assessment and response coordination as well as environmental, human, economic and other impact factors. Results are key to the design of a cyber incident early warning system for CI operators. Critical Infrastructure Protection. Cyber Incident Early Warning System. System Dynamics Modeling.
Governments have strongly recognized that the proper functioning of critical infrastructures (CIs... more Governments have strongly recognized that the proper functioning of critical infrastructures (CIs) highly determines the societal welfare. If a failed infrastructure is unable to deliver services and products to the others, disruptive effects can cascade into the larger system of CIs. In turn, decision-makers need to understand causal interdependencies and nonlinear feedback behaviors underlying the entire CIs network toward more effective crisis response plans. This paper proposes a novel block building modeling approach based on System Dynamics (SD) to capture complex dynamics of CIs disruptions. We develop a SD model and apply it to hypothetical scenarios for simulation-based impact analysis of single and multiple disruptive events. With a special focus on temporal aspects of system resilience, we also demonstrate how the model can be used for dynamic resilience assessment. The model supports crisis managers in understanding scenarios of disruptions and forecasting their impacts to improve strategic planning in Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP).
The boarding process is a time consuming processes and relevant not only for the airlines, but al... more The boarding process is a time consuming processes and relevant not only for the airlines, but also for the passengers. Disruptions during the boarding are a cause of losses for airlines business, creating also stressful situations to the travellers. Many ingenious and algorithmic procedures have been found to speed-up the boarding process. However, airlines nowadays prefer to apply traditional boarding policies. In this paper we analyze boarding disruptions due to carry-on luggage applying a System Dynamics model developed in our previous work. Simulation results demonstrate why these disruptions need to be considered by airlines to stay on track. In this regards, innovative carry-on luggage policies currently applied by airlines are presented; with a special emphasis on the unique case of Spirit Airlines. With this design study of the boarding process we study the system dynamics as a means to model disruptions and crisis of processes and the implications for business models.
Information Privacy, Cyber threats and Cyber crime seem to be ubiquitous in the news. This articl... more Information Privacy, Cyber threats and Cyber crime seem to be ubiquitous in the news. This article addresses publicly available information on IT-security, its availability and quality and presents an analysis of publicly available IT-security information for mobile devices in Germany. The contributions are the method for data analysis and the results. We conclude that there are hardly any patterns in terms of timeliness, content and quality. Users with an interest in IT security cannot rely on a single news channel.
The relevance of modeling epidemics' spread goes beyond the academic. The mathematical understand... more The relevance of modeling epidemics' spread goes beyond the academic. The mathematical understanding of infectious diseases has become an important tool in policy making. Our research interest is modeling of dynamics in crisis situations. This paper explores the extant body of literature of mathematical models in epidemiology, with particular emphasis on theories and methodologies used beyond them. Our goal is to identify core building blocks of models and research patterns to model the dynamics of crisis situations such as epidemics. The wide range of applications of epidemic models to many other disciplines that show biological analogies, makes this paper helpful for many modelers and mathematicians within the broader field of Crisis Management.
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Papers by Elisa Canzani