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Evan Ellis

U.S. Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, Faculty Member

Center for Strategic and International Studies, Latin America Program, Nonresident Senior Fellow

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Phone: Work: 717-245-4085
Address: U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute
47 Ashburn Drive
Carlisle Barracks, PA 17013

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Papers by Evan Ellis

China reminds us why the Caribbean is vital to US strategic interests - Ellis Berg and Pellecchia

The Hill, 2021

This work argues for the strategic importance of the Caribbean in the context of China's advance,... more This work argues for the strategic importance of the Caribbean in the context of China's advance, with specific attention to the strategic importance of Guyana and the need for the US not to allow environmental considerations from limiting how it engages with Guyana and the rest of the Caribbean basin.

China's Bid to Dominate Electrical Connectivity in Latin America - R Evan Ellis

China Brief, Vol 21, Issue 10, 2021

This article examines China's growing presence in the electricity generation, transmission and di... more This article examines China's growing presence in the electricity generation, transmission and distribution sectors in Latin America and the Caribbean. It argues that China's growing presence in this area may be understood as part of its broader focus on gaining a strategic position in the "connectivity" that underlies the economies of the region, in support of its advances in other strategic sectors.

China's Diplomatic and Political Approach in Latin America and the Caribbean

U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 2021

Testimony on Chinese activities in Latin America and the Caribbean, to the U.S.-China Economic an... more

Testimony to the Western Hemisphere Subcommittee on Covid 19 and Vaccine Diplomacy R Evan Ellis

U.S. House of Representatives Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere, Civilian Security, Migration, and International Economic Policy, 2021

Testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives Western Hemisphere subcommittee, examining the... more Testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives Western Hemisphere subcommittee, examining the impact of Covid-19 on the region, the difficulty of countries in the region to obtain a vaccine for their populations, and the impact of Russian and Chinese vaccine diplomacy. The testimony makes the case for a expanded US role in helping to provide vaccine to the region.

Chinese engagement in the Dominican Republic An update R Evan Ellis

Global Americans, 2021

This article looks at Chinese activities in the Dominican Republic since the country recognized t... more This article looks at Chinese activities in the Dominican Republic since the country recognized the PRC in 2018, particularly under the pro-US government of Luis Abinader. It finds that few of the projects promised by China upon recognition have gone forward, thanks to the Covid-19 pandemic and the desire of the Abinader government to maintain good relations with Washington. With the PRC sale of a million doses of Covid-19 vaccine to the Dominican government, however, the Dominican government has reversed November 2020 declaration that it would exclude the PRC from strategic sectors in he country like ports and telecommunications, allowing Huawei to participate in proposals for 5G.

Populism, China, and Covid-19 Latin America's New Perfect Storm

Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2021

This work examines how the reinforcing, long-term effects of Covid-19, China's pursuit of commerc... more This work examines how the reinforcing, long-term effects of Covid-19, China's pursuit of commercial interests and influence, and the rise of leftist authoritarian populism in Latin America and the Caribbean is collectively generating an enormous challenge for the region and the U.S. strategic position in it, far beyond the challenge presented by any one of these factors.

China’s advance in Panama An update R Evan Ellis

Global Americans, 2021

This article examines PRC activities in Panama since the establishment of diplomatic relations in... more This article examines PRC activities in Panama since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 2018, with a focus on the relationship under the current administration of Nito Cortizo and the Covid-19 pandemic. It finds that the majority of Chinese initiatives initiated under the prior Varela government have run into difficulties, but that the PRC has leveraged the fight against Covid-19 to expand its influence through gifts and sales of pandemic-related items, including the installation of thermal cameras in a variety of sensitive government locations. It further finds reason to expect resumed, if restructured PRC advances in the post-pandemic period.

Capital Corrosivo (Fundacion Milenio) - Con Prologo por Evan Ellis

Millennium Foundation, 2021

Spanish-language book about the dynamic between leftist populism, China and other external actors... more Spanish-language book about the dynamic between leftist populism, China and other external actors in Bolivia. The book is produced by the Millennium Foundation, with its chapters written by four exceptional scholars: Henry Oporto, Napoleon Pacheco, Jose Luis Evia, and Antonio Peres Velasco. Among other themes, the work provides an exceptionally rich scholarly account of contemporary Chinese (and other state capital) projects in Bolivia. It documents with a wealth of detail how institutional weakness, changes, and decreasing transparency accompanying Evo Morales’ consolidation of power made Bolivia vulnerable to such projects, and how this collaboration fueled a reinforcing cycle of corruption and project disasters that ultimately benefitted only the Chinese companies and the local elites involved in the deals.

China and El Salvador An Update

Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2021

This article examines the advance of Chinese political, economic and other engagement in El Salva... more This article examines the advance of Chinese political, economic and other engagement in El Salvador since the Salvadoran government established diplomatic relations with the PRC in 2018. It finds that, although few of the trade, investment and other benefits that El Salvador hoped to achieve by recognition have been realized, the PRC has quietly expanded its influence in the country in multiple domains, and is poised to advance on multiple fronts as the country begins to recover from the Covid-19 crisis.

Chinese Advances in Chile - R Evan Ellis

Global Americans, 2021

This work provides a detailed examination of Chinese engagement in Chile, including state-to-stat... more This work provides a detailed examination of Chinese engagement in Chile, including state-to-state activities, trade, Chinese construction and infrastructure work in the country, the growing presence of Chinese companies in the country in sectors from mining to telecommunications, China-Chile space cooperation, and collaboration in the security sector, among others.

New directions in the deepening Chinese Argentine engagement Evan Ellis

Global Americans, 2021

This article examines deepening PRC-Argentina engagement, including trade, investment and other c... more This article examines deepening PRC-Argentina engagement, including trade, investment and other commercial activities, Covid-19 related activities, telecommunications, surveillance architectures and space cooperation, military and law enforcement activities, diplomatic activities, and the government-to-government coordination involved in the comprehensive strategic partnership between the nations. It focuses particularly on the attempted advances under the current government of Alberto Fernandez and his Vice-President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner.

The Challenges Facing Latin America after COVID, Part 2 - R Evan Ellis and John Nagl

Foreign Policy Research Institute, 2021

In this article, Evan Ellis provides written responses to FPRI board member and Haverford School ... more In this article, Evan Ellis provides written responses to FPRI board member and Haverford School headmaster Dr. John Nagl regarding challenges facing the new Biden Administration in Latin America and the Caribbean. This article, the second of two parts, focuses on the PRC-Taiwan struggle for diplomatic recognition in the hemisphere, the security and other challenges in Mexico, the evolution of transnational organized crime due to the pandemic, the resurgence of the Latin American left and its impact on the region's institutions, future and the US, and challenges facing the Bolsonaro government in Brazil.

The Challenges Facing Latin America after COVID, Part 1 - R Evan Ellis and John Nagl

Foreign Policy Research Institute, 2021

In this article, Evan Ellis provides written responses to FPRI board member and Haverford School ... more In this article, Evan Ellis provides written responses to FPRI board member and Haverford School headmaster Dr. John Nagl regarding challenges facing the new Biden Administration in Latin America and the Caribbean. This article, the first of two parts, focuses on considerations arising from Covid-19, Chinese engagement in the region, Venezuela, and the a range of dynamics in Caribbean, including new governments in Suriname and Guyana.

Why Chinas Advance in Latin America Matters - R Evan Ellis

National Defense Magazine

The work concisely makes the case for why growing PRC engagement in Latin America, while primaril... more The work concisely makes the case for why growing PRC engagement in Latin America, while primarily about the pursuit of its commercial self-interest, is progressively the region’s ability to realize the benefits of its resources and labor for itself, while fueling self-censorship of those who would question the process and PRC behavior, undercutting the institutions and collective voice that would allow it to bargain more effectively with the PRC, and enabling and prolonging populist authoritarian regimes whose leaders use Chinese money to pursue a path independent of traditional Western norms of transparency and democratic accountability.

Why China's Advance in Latin America Matters

National Defense Magazine

This article analyzes the economic, political and other strategic impacts of China's advance in L... more

Insights from system dynamics on the future of Latin America - R Evan Ellis

Global Americans, 2021

This article uses an analysis of the interdependence between social, economic, political, securit... more

The Northern Triangle Needs Some TLC

Newsmax, 2020

This work analyzes economic, security and other challenges in El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras... more This work analyzes economic, security and other challenges in El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras in the context of Covid-19 and prospect for relations or deepening relations with the PRC. It argues that the incoming Biden administration has an important opportunity for an early victory in Latin America relations, but that cutoffs and threatened cutoffs of security assistance to those states in the December 2020 Covid-19 relief bill sends the wrong message to those governments at the worst possible time.

The Latin America That Will Engage the New Administration - R Evan Ellis

This work examines opportunities and challenges from Latin America that will confront the incomin... more This work examines opportunities and challenges from Latin America that will confront the incoming administration of Joe Biden in the U.S., as well as how different actors in the region will likely engage with the region, reflecting their own interests, needs, and calculations of the orientation and situation of the Administration.

Newsmax, 2020

This article, part 2 of 2, of "Mercantilism with Chinese Characteristics" examines expanding Chin... more This article, part 2 of 2, of "Mercantilism with Chinese Characteristics" examines expanding Chinese advances in the logistics sector of Latin America, including not just road and rail transportation, but also river toll routes, electricity, telecommunications and banking infrastructure, and how the PRC is using these together in combination with deals in other strategic sectors to advance its economic position in Latin America

Mercantilism With Chinese Characteristics in Latin America (2 parts)

Newsmax, 2020

This paper examines Chinese economic engagement in Latin America through the framework of mercant... more This paper examines Chinese economic engagement in Latin America through the framework of mercantilism and dependency theory. It examines current advances by Chinese companies in infrastructure sectors, including not only ground transportation and ports, but river tollways, electricity, telecommunications, and financial infrastructure, and how the PRC is seeking to create synergies between infrastructure control and its advance in other strategic sectors to dominate value added chains and a global economic order that first and foremost serves the PRC.

China reminds us why the Caribbean is vital to US strategic interests - Ellis Berg and Pellecchia

The Hill, 2021

This work argues for the strategic importance of the Caribbean in the context of China's advance,... more This work argues for the strategic importance of the Caribbean in the context of China's advance, with specific attention to the strategic importance of Guyana and the need for the US not to allow environmental considerations from limiting how it engages with Guyana and the rest of the Caribbean basin.

China's Bid to Dominate Electrical Connectivity in Latin America - R Evan Ellis

China Brief, Vol 21, Issue 10, 2021

This article examines China's growing presence in the electricity generation, transmission and di... more This article examines China's growing presence in the electricity generation, transmission and distribution sectors in Latin America and the Caribbean. It argues that China's growing presence in this area may be understood as part of its broader focus on gaining a strategic position in the "connectivity" that underlies the economies of the region, in support of its advances in other strategic sectors.

China's Diplomatic and Political Approach in Latin America and the Caribbean

U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 2021

Testimony on Chinese activities in Latin America and the Caribbean, to the U.S.-China Economic an... more

Testimony to the Western Hemisphere Subcommittee on Covid 19 and Vaccine Diplomacy R Evan Ellis

U.S. House of Representatives Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere, Civilian Security, Migration, and International Economic Policy, 2021

Testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives Western Hemisphere subcommittee, examining the... more Testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives Western Hemisphere subcommittee, examining the impact of Covid-19 on the region, the difficulty of countries in the region to obtain a vaccine for their populations, and the impact of Russian and Chinese vaccine diplomacy. The testimony makes the case for a expanded US role in helping to provide vaccine to the region.

Chinese engagement in the Dominican Republic An update R Evan Ellis

Global Americans, 2021

This article looks at Chinese activities in the Dominican Republic since the country recognized t... more This article looks at Chinese activities in the Dominican Republic since the country recognized the PRC in 2018, particularly under the pro-US government of Luis Abinader. It finds that few of the projects promised by China upon recognition have gone forward, thanks to the Covid-19 pandemic and the desire of the Abinader government to maintain good relations with Washington. With the PRC sale of a million doses of Covid-19 vaccine to the Dominican government, however, the Dominican government has reversed November 2020 declaration that it would exclude the PRC from strategic sectors in he country like ports and telecommunications, allowing Huawei to participate in proposals for 5G.

Populism, China, and Covid-19 Latin America's New Perfect Storm

Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2021

This work examines how the reinforcing, long-term effects of Covid-19, China's pursuit of commerc... more This work examines how the reinforcing, long-term effects of Covid-19, China's pursuit of commercial interests and influence, and the rise of leftist authoritarian populism in Latin America and the Caribbean is collectively generating an enormous challenge for the region and the U.S. strategic position in it, far beyond the challenge presented by any one of these factors.

China’s advance in Panama An update R Evan Ellis

Global Americans, 2021

This article examines PRC activities in Panama since the establishment of diplomatic relations in... more This article examines PRC activities in Panama since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 2018, with a focus on the relationship under the current administration of Nito Cortizo and the Covid-19 pandemic. It finds that the majority of Chinese initiatives initiated under the prior Varela government have run into difficulties, but that the PRC has leveraged the fight against Covid-19 to expand its influence through gifts and sales of pandemic-related items, including the installation of thermal cameras in a variety of sensitive government locations. It further finds reason to expect resumed, if restructured PRC advances in the post-pandemic period.

Capital Corrosivo (Fundacion Milenio) - Con Prologo por Evan Ellis

Millennium Foundation, 2021

Spanish-language book about the dynamic between leftist populism, China and other external actors... more Spanish-language book about the dynamic between leftist populism, China and other external actors in Bolivia. The book is produced by the Millennium Foundation, with its chapters written by four exceptional scholars: Henry Oporto, Napoleon Pacheco, Jose Luis Evia, and Antonio Peres Velasco. Among other themes, the work provides an exceptionally rich scholarly account of contemporary Chinese (and other state capital) projects in Bolivia. It documents with a wealth of detail how institutional weakness, changes, and decreasing transparency accompanying Evo Morales’ consolidation of power made Bolivia vulnerable to such projects, and how this collaboration fueled a reinforcing cycle of corruption and project disasters that ultimately benefitted only the Chinese companies and the local elites involved in the deals.

China and El Salvador An Update

Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2021

This article examines the advance of Chinese political, economic and other engagement in El Salva... more This article examines the advance of Chinese political, economic and other engagement in El Salvador since the Salvadoran government established diplomatic relations with the PRC in 2018. It finds that, although few of the trade, investment and other benefits that El Salvador hoped to achieve by recognition have been realized, the PRC has quietly expanded its influence in the country in multiple domains, and is poised to advance on multiple fronts as the country begins to recover from the Covid-19 crisis.

Chinese Advances in Chile - R Evan Ellis

Global Americans, 2021

This work provides a detailed examination of Chinese engagement in Chile, including state-to-stat... more This work provides a detailed examination of Chinese engagement in Chile, including state-to-state activities, trade, Chinese construction and infrastructure work in the country, the growing presence of Chinese companies in the country in sectors from mining to telecommunications, China-Chile space cooperation, and collaboration in the security sector, among others.

New directions in the deepening Chinese Argentine engagement Evan Ellis

Global Americans, 2021

This article examines deepening PRC-Argentina engagement, including trade, investment and other c... more This article examines deepening PRC-Argentina engagement, including trade, investment and other commercial activities, Covid-19 related activities, telecommunications, surveillance architectures and space cooperation, military and law enforcement activities, diplomatic activities, and the government-to-government coordination involved in the comprehensive strategic partnership between the nations. It focuses particularly on the attempted advances under the current government of Alberto Fernandez and his Vice-President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner.

The Challenges Facing Latin America after COVID, Part 2 - R Evan Ellis and John Nagl

Foreign Policy Research Institute, 2021

In this article, Evan Ellis provides written responses to FPRI board member and Haverford School ... more In this article, Evan Ellis provides written responses to FPRI board member and Haverford School headmaster Dr. John Nagl regarding challenges facing the new Biden Administration in Latin America and the Caribbean. This article, the second of two parts, focuses on the PRC-Taiwan struggle for diplomatic recognition in the hemisphere, the security and other challenges in Mexico, the evolution of transnational organized crime due to the pandemic, the resurgence of the Latin American left and its impact on the region's institutions, future and the US, and challenges facing the Bolsonaro government in Brazil.

The Challenges Facing Latin America after COVID, Part 1 - R Evan Ellis and John Nagl

Foreign Policy Research Institute, 2021

In this article, Evan Ellis provides written responses to FPRI board member and Haverford School ... more In this article, Evan Ellis provides written responses to FPRI board member and Haverford School headmaster Dr. John Nagl regarding challenges facing the new Biden Administration in Latin America and the Caribbean. This article, the first of two parts, focuses on considerations arising from Covid-19, Chinese engagement in the region, Venezuela, and the a range of dynamics in Caribbean, including new governments in Suriname and Guyana.

Why Chinas Advance in Latin America Matters - R Evan Ellis

National Defense Magazine

The work concisely makes the case for why growing PRC engagement in Latin America, while primaril... more The work concisely makes the case for why growing PRC engagement in Latin America, while primarily about the pursuit of its commercial self-interest, is progressively the region’s ability to realize the benefits of its resources and labor for itself, while fueling self-censorship of those who would question the process and PRC behavior, undercutting the institutions and collective voice that would allow it to bargain more effectively with the PRC, and enabling and prolonging populist authoritarian regimes whose leaders use Chinese money to pursue a path independent of traditional Western norms of transparency and democratic accountability.

Why China's Advance in Latin America Matters

National Defense Magazine

This article analyzes the economic, political and other strategic impacts of China's advance in L... more

Insights from system dynamics on the future of Latin America - R Evan Ellis

Global Americans, 2021

This article uses an analysis of the interdependence between social, economic, political, securit... more

The Northern Triangle Needs Some TLC

Newsmax, 2020

This work analyzes economic, security and other challenges in El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras... more This work analyzes economic, security and other challenges in El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras in the context of Covid-19 and prospect for relations or deepening relations with the PRC. It argues that the incoming Biden administration has an important opportunity for an early victory in Latin America relations, but that cutoffs and threatened cutoffs of security assistance to those states in the December 2020 Covid-19 relief bill sends the wrong message to those governments at the worst possible time.

The Latin America That Will Engage the New Administration - R Evan Ellis

This work examines opportunities and challenges from Latin America that will confront the incomin... more This work examines opportunities and challenges from Latin America that will confront the incoming administration of Joe Biden in the U.S., as well as how different actors in the region will likely engage with the region, reflecting their own interests, needs, and calculations of the orientation and situation of the Administration.

Newsmax, 2020

This article, part 2 of 2, of "Mercantilism with Chinese Characteristics" examines expanding Chin... more This article, part 2 of 2, of "Mercantilism with Chinese Characteristics" examines expanding Chinese advances in the logistics sector of Latin America, including not just road and rail transportation, but also river toll routes, electricity, telecommunications and banking infrastructure, and how the PRC is using these together in combination with deals in other strategic sectors to advance its economic position in Latin America

Mercantilism With Chinese Characteristics in Latin America (2 parts)

Newsmax, 2020

This paper examines Chinese economic engagement in Latin America through the framework of mercant... more This paper examines Chinese economic engagement in Latin America through the framework of mercantilism and dependency theory. It examines current advances by Chinese companies in infrastructure sectors, including not only ground transportation and ports, but river tollways, electricity, telecommunications, and financial infrastructure, and how the PRC is seeking to create synergies between infrastructure control and its advance in other strategic sectors to dominate value added chains and a global economic order that first and foremost serves the PRC.