International Journal of Manufacturing Technology and Management, 2018
This paper aims at providing a comprehensive outlook on the economic and organisational rationale... more This paper aims at providing a comprehensive outlook on the economic and organisational rationale of 3D printing technologies and their implications for innovation in the Italian manufacturing industry. Despite its limited impact on the industrial world, the idea of printing actual 3D objects has clearly captured the popular imagination; 3D printing is often linked to 'big changes' or to sometimes indefinite industrial revolutions in progress because it is considered that 3D printing will eventually enable 'mass customisation'. None of the most significant actual applications of AM in Italian manufacturing, however, suggests that any real 'manufacturing revolution' has started or can be foreseen in the near future for consumer goods. For these AM is neither competitive today, nor can it be made so in the future, unless some sort of technological quantum leap occurs.
Knowledge Management and Triangulation Logic in the Foresight Research and Analyses in Business Process Management
Communications in Computer and Information Science, 2017
The idea of the article is to integrate knowledge management thinking to triangulation logic. Tri... more The idea of the article is to integrate knowledge management thinking to triangulation logic. Triangulation logic can be seen as a quality control mech‐ anism in the field of knowledge management. Triangulation logic can also see as a critical knowledge management mechanism, which helps integrate inductive and deductive thinking in scientific projects. Triangulation is a vehicle for cross validation when two or more distinct methods are found to be congruent and yield comparable data. Today various scholars have noted that qualitative and quanti‐ tative methods should be viewed as complementary rather than as rival approaches. In fact, most textbooks underscore the desirability of mixing methods given the strengths and weaknesses found in single mono-method designs. In this kind of scientific discussion, the triangulation logic, which integrates quantitative and qualitative methods, is a highly relevant knowledge management issue. Today future-oriented foresight research is mostly based on quantitative and qualitative analyses. The three key elements of foresight activity are diagnosis (hindsight), prognosis (foresight) and description (decision support). In order to integrate triangulation logic to these foresight activities, experts and knowledge management scientists must think carefully alternative strategies, how to build up logical link between triangulation logic and foresight activities. This article provides some new ideas, how these novel knowledge management strategies could be constructed, when we look KM issues from broader triangulation
Lukukausimaksut ja yliopistojen houkuttelevuus : mitä tilastot ja kansainväliset tutkimukset kertovat? Vai kertovatko mitään suomalaisesta perspektiivistä?
Towards better participatory processes in technology foresight: How to link participatory foresight research to the methodological machinery of qualitative research and phenomenology?
Futures, Feb 1, 2017
Abstract Technological progress does not happen in a social vacuum. Shaping of tomorrow is not po... more Abstract Technological progress does not happen in a social vacuum. Shaping of tomorrow is not possible without qualitative analyses. Therefore, the social and psychological dimensions of reality form an important part of technology foresight. Qualitative research will be needed to understand superficial and deep structures of social realities. So called push and pull factors are always linked to social behaviour. People's relationship to the use of technologies and the utilization of technologies is a complex and not a one-dimensional or monological issue. Monological methodological approaches can be harmful and confusing in the field of participatory foresight. We can conclude that the cycles of deductive and inductive logic are needed in science and in participatory foresight studies. Experts of the FTA community must have a higher level of methodological know-how in this research field and they should use qualitative methods in multi-faceted (external and internal) ways in foresight studies. Still the qualitative parts of many studies are quite monological and these studies can be quite problematic, even confusing. More critical methodological approaches should be taken into serious consideration. As a methodological approach, the principle of triangulation should be used more in the fields of participatory foresight studies and technology foresight. The key focus of this article in the use of qualitative and phenomenological approaches in the fields of FTA and foresight. The aim of this theoretically oriented discussion is to promote the professional use of qualitative methods in foresight and FTA studies. The strength of qualitative analyses is linked to deeper understanding of social change and social patterns and structures. Actually people create and constitute the markets, networks, and crowds where technologies are applied and used. Internal systemic understanding of social realities is an important part of foresight activities, especially in participatory foresight studies. Internal and external analyses can be seen as complementary approaches, like qualitative and quantitative approaches. The use of qualitative methods is a conventional part of the research process in participatory foresight projects. A typical problem may be that the use of methods is not planned carefully enough and people are unaware of the underlying key assumptions of applied methods. Experimenting with phenomenology is not a simple task in foresight research. Therefore, the views and informative platforms expressed and presented in this article may be useful for foresight practitioners.
Journal of business management and economics, Dec 29, 2017
The paper presents a new way to perform IPR portfolio analyses (trademark and patent analyses) an... more The paper presents a new way to perform IPR portfolio analyses (trademark and patent analyses) and other market structure analyses. Trademark and patents analyses become more significant for the development of companies, especially in current conditions of technological disruption. We will reflect (1) current STI management and foresight, (2) most important IT technology trends for year 2017 and (3) the most evaluated technologies in the Gartner HC evaluations. Trademark analyses and especially novel LKI analysis can contribute to capturing relevant aspects of market and technology disruptions. Our demonstration is focused on trade marking and trademark registrations in Finland. The LKI analysis is scientifically as generic as Herfindahl-Hirchman Index (HHI) has been during its long history of indicator research. LKI approach makes us free from the scaling problems of conventional HHI. IPR portfolios with any size can now be analysed without potential statistical biases. We develop and introduce the HHI index and a new IPR and market analysis index: LKI (Lauraeus-Kaivo-oja Index). The evaluation results of the HHI analysis and the LKI analysis are compared. With the LKI, we are able to compare better the substance of Intellectual Property Right (IPR) portfolios and market structures. Furthermore, we show, why percentage numbers are easier to comprehend than HHI index points.
This paper addresses the need for reliable action guidelines that can be used by organisations in... more This paper addresses the need for reliable action guidelines that can be used by organisations in turbulent environments. Building on current conceptual and empirical research, we suggest an analytical approach for the management of surprising and potentially damaging events. In order to do so we use the wild card management system. Wild cards refer to sudden and unique incidents that can constitute turning points in the evolution of a certain trend or system. As the first of the two components of such a wild card system we advocate a weak signal methodology to take into account those wild cards that can be anticipated by scanning the decision environment. The second component, the nurture of improvisation capabilities, is designed to deal with ongoing crisis. This paper can be seen as part of a broader agenda on how to manage in conditions of continuous but unpredictable change.
Uusien Patenttien Rekisteröinnin Aktiivisuustrendit Suomessa (Patent Registration Activity Trends in Finland)
Econometric Modeling: Derivatives eJournal, 2017
<b>Finnish Abstract:</b> Lyhyt trendikatsaus Patenttija rekisterihallitukseen tehdyis... more <b>Finnish Abstract:</b> Lyhyt trendikatsaus Patenttija rekisterihallitukseen tehdyistä patenttihakemuksista sektoreittain. <b>English Abstract:</b> This paper presents a short trend review of patent applications in Finland by sector.
Finish Abstract: Virran perhe istuu olohuoneen pöydän äärellä Vesijärven rannalla sijaitsevan äly... more Finish Abstract: Virran perhe istuu olohuoneen pöydän äärellä Vesijärven rannalla sijaitsevan älytalon kol- mannessa kerroksessa. Keväisenä sunnuntaiaamuna vuonna 2030 perhe pohtii naapu- rihuoneiston Kainon, perheen nuorimmaisen Nunnun ja tämän parhaan kaverin Emmin kanssa, mitä tänään yhdessä tehtäisiin. English Abstract: Starting from the scenario of a Finish family is sitting on the third floor of the intelligent house on the shore of Lake Vesijärvi, this article develops a Finish Futures panorama of the year 2030.
The VUCA approach as a solution concept to corporate foresight challenges and global technological disruption
foresight, 2018
Purpose Under current market conditions of corporate foresight, turbulence is a key element of th... more Purpose Under current market conditions of corporate foresight, turbulence is a key element of the business landscape. Turbulence can be summarised using the trendy managerial acronym “VUCA”: volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity. This paper aims to combine, for the first time, scientific discussion of technological disruption with the VUCA approach. Gartner Hype Cycle is used as a case example of technological turbulence and “vucability”. Design/methodology/approach First, the authors present the key concepts of technological disruption and radical innovation. Both these concepts are highly relevant for modern corporate foresight. Second, the authors discuss the key elements of current technological transformation and summarise it to create a bigger picture. Third, the authors link this discussion to the VUCA approach. Fourth, the authors present the new corporate foresight framework, which is highly relevant for corporations and takes current technological transformati...
International Journal of Manufacturing Technology and Management, 2018
This paper aims at providing a comprehensive outlook on the economic and organisational rationale... more This paper aims at providing a comprehensive outlook on the economic and organisational rationale of 3D printing technologies and their implications for innovation in the Italian manufacturing industry. Despite its limited impact on the industrial world, the idea of printing actual 3D objects has clearly captured the popular imagination; 3D printing is often linked to 'big changes' or to sometimes indefinite industrial revolutions in progress because it is considered that 3D printing will eventually enable 'mass customisation'. None of the most significant actual applications of AM in Italian manufacturing, however, suggests that any real 'manufacturing revolution' has started or can be foreseen in the near future for consumer goods. For these AM is neither competitive today, nor can it be made so in the future, unless some sort of technological quantum leap occurs.
Knowledge Management and Triangulation Logic in the Foresight Research and Analyses in Business Process Management
Communications in Computer and Information Science, 2017
The idea of the article is to integrate knowledge management thinking to triangulation logic. Tri... more The idea of the article is to integrate knowledge management thinking to triangulation logic. Triangulation logic can be seen as a quality control mech‐ anism in the field of knowledge management. Triangulation logic can also see as a critical knowledge management mechanism, which helps integrate inductive and deductive thinking in scientific projects. Triangulation is a vehicle for cross validation when two or more distinct methods are found to be congruent and yield comparable data. Today various scholars have noted that qualitative and quanti‐ tative methods should be viewed as complementary rather than as rival approaches. In fact, most textbooks underscore the desirability of mixing methods given the strengths and weaknesses found in single mono-method designs. In this kind of scientific discussion, the triangulation logic, which integrates quantitative and qualitative methods, is a highly relevant knowledge management issue. Today future-oriented foresight research is mostly based on quantitative and qualitative analyses. The three key elements of foresight activity are diagnosis (hindsight), prognosis (foresight) and description (decision support). In order to integrate triangulation logic to these foresight activities, experts and knowledge management scientists must think carefully alternative strategies, how to build up logical link between triangulation logic and foresight activities. This article provides some new ideas, how these novel knowledge management strategies could be constructed, when we look KM issues from broader triangulation
Lukukausimaksut ja yliopistojen houkuttelevuus : mitä tilastot ja kansainväliset tutkimukset kertovat? Vai kertovatko mitään suomalaisesta perspektiivistä?
Towards better participatory processes in technology foresight: How to link participatory foresight research to the methodological machinery of qualitative research and phenomenology?
Futures, Feb 1, 2017
Abstract Technological progress does not happen in a social vacuum. Shaping of tomorrow is not po... more Abstract Technological progress does not happen in a social vacuum. Shaping of tomorrow is not possible without qualitative analyses. Therefore, the social and psychological dimensions of reality form an important part of technology foresight. Qualitative research will be needed to understand superficial and deep structures of social realities. So called push and pull factors are always linked to social behaviour. People's relationship to the use of technologies and the utilization of technologies is a complex and not a one-dimensional or monological issue. Monological methodological approaches can be harmful and confusing in the field of participatory foresight. We can conclude that the cycles of deductive and inductive logic are needed in science and in participatory foresight studies. Experts of the FTA community must have a higher level of methodological know-how in this research field and they should use qualitative methods in multi-faceted (external and internal) ways in foresight studies. Still the qualitative parts of many studies are quite monological and these studies can be quite problematic, even confusing. More critical methodological approaches should be taken into serious consideration. As a methodological approach, the principle of triangulation should be used more in the fields of participatory foresight studies and technology foresight. The key focus of this article in the use of qualitative and phenomenological approaches in the fields of FTA and foresight. The aim of this theoretically oriented discussion is to promote the professional use of qualitative methods in foresight and FTA studies. The strength of qualitative analyses is linked to deeper understanding of social change and social patterns and structures. Actually people create and constitute the markets, networks, and crowds where technologies are applied and used. Internal systemic understanding of social realities is an important part of foresight activities, especially in participatory foresight studies. Internal and external analyses can be seen as complementary approaches, like qualitative and quantitative approaches. The use of qualitative methods is a conventional part of the research process in participatory foresight projects. A typical problem may be that the use of methods is not planned carefully enough and people are unaware of the underlying key assumptions of applied methods. Experimenting with phenomenology is not a simple task in foresight research. Therefore, the views and informative platforms expressed and presented in this article may be useful for foresight practitioners.
Journal of business management and economics, Dec 29, 2017
The paper presents a new way to perform IPR portfolio analyses (trademark and patent analyses) an... more The paper presents a new way to perform IPR portfolio analyses (trademark and patent analyses) and other market structure analyses. Trademark and patents analyses become more significant for the development of companies, especially in current conditions of technological disruption. We will reflect (1) current STI management and foresight, (2) most important IT technology trends for year 2017 and (3) the most evaluated technologies in the Gartner HC evaluations. Trademark analyses and especially novel LKI analysis can contribute to capturing relevant aspects of market and technology disruptions. Our demonstration is focused on trade marking and trademark registrations in Finland. The LKI analysis is scientifically as generic as Herfindahl-Hirchman Index (HHI) has been during its long history of indicator research. LKI approach makes us free from the scaling problems of conventional HHI. IPR portfolios with any size can now be analysed without potential statistical biases. We develop and introduce the HHI index and a new IPR and market analysis index: LKI (Lauraeus-Kaivo-oja Index). The evaluation results of the HHI analysis and the LKI analysis are compared. With the LKI, we are able to compare better the substance of Intellectual Property Right (IPR) portfolios and market structures. Furthermore, we show, why percentage numbers are easier to comprehend than HHI index points.
This paper addresses the need for reliable action guidelines that can be used by organisations in... more This paper addresses the need for reliable action guidelines that can be used by organisations in turbulent environments. Building on current conceptual and empirical research, we suggest an analytical approach for the management of surprising and potentially damaging events. In order to do so we use the wild card management system. Wild cards refer to sudden and unique incidents that can constitute turning points in the evolution of a certain trend or system. As the first of the two components of such a wild card system we advocate a weak signal methodology to take into account those wild cards that can be anticipated by scanning the decision environment. The second component, the nurture of improvisation capabilities, is designed to deal with ongoing crisis. This paper can be seen as part of a broader agenda on how to manage in conditions of continuous but unpredictable change.
Uusien Patenttien Rekisteröinnin Aktiivisuustrendit Suomessa (Patent Registration Activity Trends in Finland)
Econometric Modeling: Derivatives eJournal, 2017
<b>Finnish Abstract:</b> Lyhyt trendikatsaus Patenttija rekisterihallitukseen tehdyis... more <b>Finnish Abstract:</b> Lyhyt trendikatsaus Patenttija rekisterihallitukseen tehdyistä patenttihakemuksista sektoreittain. <b>English Abstract:</b> This paper presents a short trend review of patent applications in Finland by sector.
Finish Abstract: Virran perhe istuu olohuoneen pöydän äärellä Vesijärven rannalla sijaitsevan äly... more Finish Abstract: Virran perhe istuu olohuoneen pöydän äärellä Vesijärven rannalla sijaitsevan älytalon kol- mannessa kerroksessa. Keväisenä sunnuntaiaamuna vuonna 2030 perhe pohtii naapu- rihuoneiston Kainon, perheen nuorimmaisen Nunnun ja tämän parhaan kaverin Emmin kanssa, mitä tänään yhdessä tehtäisiin. English Abstract: Starting from the scenario of a Finish family is sitting on the third floor of the intelligent house on the shore of Lake Vesijärvi, this article develops a Finish Futures panorama of the year 2030.
The VUCA approach as a solution concept to corporate foresight challenges and global technological disruption
foresight, 2018
Purpose Under current market conditions of corporate foresight, turbulence is a key element of th... more Purpose Under current market conditions of corporate foresight, turbulence is a key element of the business landscape. Turbulence can be summarised using the trendy managerial acronym “VUCA”: volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity. This paper aims to combine, for the first time, scientific discussion of technological disruption with the VUCA approach. Gartner Hype Cycle is used as a case example of technological turbulence and “vucability”. Design/methodology/approach First, the authors present the key concepts of technological disruption and radical innovation. Both these concepts are highly relevant for modern corporate foresight. Second, the authors discuss the key elements of current technological transformation and summarise it to create a bigger picture. Third, the authors link this discussion to the VUCA approach. Fourth, the authors present the new corporate foresight framework, which is highly relevant for corporations and takes current technological transformati...
This article tests whether the field of foresight and futures studies shows significant variable ... more This article tests whether the field of foresight and futures studies shows significant variable selection biases in the modelling of the future in general and the impact of function systems in particular. We performed a word frequency analysis to measure the relative importance of the political system, the economy, science, art, religion, law, sport, health, education, and the mass media to three pertinent journals in the field of futures studies and foresight. The results show that Futures, Long Range Planning, and Technological Forecasting and Social Change have different and changing preferences for the above function systems, an information which authors may find helpful in supporting decisions on where to submit. Our results also show that all journals feature a highly significant bias to the triple helix systemsthe political system, the economy, and science. While the latter bias may be adequate to scientific journals, the dominant focus on the political system and the economy as well as the corresponding neglect of the other systems points at implicit presumptions about the importance of the individual systems that may not be in line with their importance to the larger society. (S. Roth). 1 There are also considerable risks that political agendas are biased because of this third-order risk. In many foresight studies a key research idea is to construct future-oriented political decision-making agendas . Futures j o u r n a l h o m e p a g e : w w w . e l s e v i e r . c o m / l o c a t e / f u t u r e s
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