The Maldives. An example of strategic carelessness?

Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs , 2023

The "non-nuclear five" (NN5) countries consisting of Bangladesh, Bhutan, the Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka have common geographical and/or regional borders with India and have historically been in their big neighbor's historic and cultural sphere of influence. Yet, over the years, as China has made significant inroads into the South Asian region, NN5 are getting entangled in the India-China rivalry. In this paper, we posit how the NN5 exhibit a common pattern of strategic hedging given their bilateral relations with regional hegemon India, along with the rising influence of China. By analyzing comparative trends in the South Asian region, we contribute empirically to the research on "hedging" in international relations, since to date no study has examined all these five countries using this concept. The study is relevant because the US administration is increasingly focusing on "small countries" in its Indo-Pacific strategy, and the NN5 are such countries.

International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, 2019

The literature on hedging as a secondary state strategy – built largely on evidence from United States-China competition in East and Southeast Asia – focuses on conditions where a major power presents both an economic opportunity and a security threat. In South Asia, in contrast, secondary states facing strategic competition between India and China have pursued hedging strategies in the absence of a security threat. We develop a theoretical reconciliation of these two phenomena. Hedging at its core involves a trade-off between the material benefits and autonomy costs of cooperating with a major power in a competitive environment. States are likely to hedge when these benefits and costs are simultaneously rising. We test the plausibility of this theory in the cases of the Maldives and Sri Lanka. The autonomy trade-off operates both in the absence and in the presence of a security threat, thus offering a theoretical advancement with greater empirical scope.

Journal of Politics and Governance, 2017

One of the littoral states of India is Maldives, located in the south western tip of the country. A small island country in South Asia, Maldives's relations with India have been cordial and on numerous occasions India as a neighbouring country had assisted Maldives in its trajectory to economic development, welfare and security. However Maldives has strategic significance for India since it is situated in the middle of the Indian Ocean and several internal as well as external factors which are affecting Maldives has an adverse implications on India. Such as the political turmoil which happened from 2008 to 2012 and growing influence of China in the island nation and. The article sets to analyse the relationship between India and Maldives from 1968 onwards when Maldives became a republic till contemporary times with special emphasis on the changing foreign policy approaches of both the countries in the last decade. Also the article examines the concerns which India has for Maldives as neighbouring country.

South Asia Journal

The recent three-day official visit to India (December 2018) by the Maldivian President Solih, only comes within a month after taking over the reins of the nation. The Indian PM Modi has been invited to attend the swearing-in ceremony of President Ibrahim Solih. These steps of the newly elected President Solih have given signals that he is committed to improving the bilateral relations with India. Under the previous regime of former President Yameen, the bilateral relations had become more strained as he shown more pro-China tilt and harbouring anti-India stances. The newly elected Maldives' President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih committed to attune the Maldivian foreign policy coupled with India First Policy. Now, the question is how India could maintain this goodwill by recalibrating its neighbourhood policy?

Asian Security 8:1, 2012

ISSUE BRIEF, 2019

Journal of Contemporary China, 2016

This article addresses Sino–Indian relations from the alternative and underengaged lens of hedging, as opposed to the more conventional balancing and bandwagoning dichotomy. It analyzes why and how, despite the general stable state of and progress in Sino–Indian relations, Delhi has pursued a hedging strategy against China. Under the present Modi administration, India has not deviated markedly from its traditionally prudent foreign policy approach towards China. Yet, there have been discernible changes and, arguably, the main departure from the previous government’s policy is a matter of degree: a more consolidated hedging component combined with a more robust engagement policy towards China. Like several countries in the Indo–Pacific confronted with the rise of China, India remains strategically ambivalent about China.

This article argues that China's rise and its growing military power have intensified the Sino-Indian security dilemma. For a long time after the 1962 war, India's military posture along the India-China border was mostly defensive in nature and could be characterized as imposing "deterrence by denial." However, over the last decade, China's growth trajectory coupled with rapid modernization of its military called into question the efficacy of this approach. India now feels much more vulnerable to China's increasing military power both on the land frontier as well as in the maritime domain. The increasing intensity of this security dilemma has informed a consequent shift in India's military strategy vis-à-vis China to one of "deterrence by punishment." Theoretically, this article examines how changes in the severity of a security dilemma can lead to changes in military strategy. While doing so it explains India's current military strategy to deal with the challenge posed by China.

REVIEW ESSAY- Deep Currents and Rising Tides: The Indian Ocean and International Security edited by John Garofano and Andrew J Dew Asymmetrical Threat Perception in India-China Relations by Tien-sze Fang Samudra Manthan: Sino-Indian Rivalry in the Indo-Pacific by C Raja Mohan Chinese and Indian Strategic Behavior: Growing Power and Alarm by George J Gilboy and Eric Heginbotham

2023

This paper studies the progress and challenges of India’s engagement with three key littoral Indian Ocean States: the Maldives, Madagascar, and Mauritius. After briefly elaborating on China’s emerging role in the IOR, the paper summarizes the general framework India has employed under Prime Minister Modi in its interaction with the region. The paper then examines how this blueprint has been applied in the three case study countries, what specific local contexts shape the effectiveness of this engagement until now, and what limitations remain in the respective bilateral relationships. The paper finds that although India’s growing diplomatic presence has created some positive outcomes, the Indian presence is partially contentious and shaped by a variety of factors that make developments contingent on specific local contexts. Carefully navigating these contexts and respective concerns will be paramount in order to ensure India’s long-term role as an alternative to China.