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2024, Australian Outlook
Rockets are now being fired by Iran into Israel. This turn of events raises new questions: will Israel’s strategy of degrading Hezbollah work, lead to a full blown regional war, or be a game changer in the Middle East?
For 7 years now, the border area between Israel and Lebanon has witnessed calm and stability. At first sight, this has all the appearances of a paradox. The 2006 war between the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and the Lebanese organization, Hezbollah, was followed neither by a peace agreement nor by a mere diplomatic process. Both sides prepared their forces to wage the next war and additionally have been confronted in past years to major changes in the distribution of power in the Middle East in the midst of the so-called “Arab Spring.” Against all odds, the area comprising north Israel and south Lebanon remained very quiet these last months. This monograph argues that the key to understand this paradox is the game of deterrence played by both Israel and Hezbollah. Specifically, an informal deterrence dialogue has been developing between Israel and Hezbollah and that strategic stability prevailed because of this indirect exchange. Because both sides understood that a next round would be devastating and that each could not entirely eliminate the threat of retaliation in a first wave the solution has been to bargain deterrence, meaning to deter the other party from attacking its homeland by pledging a full-scale retaliation. But to say that stability has been preserved between Israel and Hezbollah thanks to deterrence does not mean that this is a perennial state. This monograph also stresses the precariousness of such deterrence system. The stand-off between Israel and Hezbollah reached this level only through specific measures and conditions that can be reversed in the future. In particular, exogenous factors such as the unraveling of the Syrian civil war or the developments of the Iranian nuclear issue can jeopardize the equilibrium. Moreover, the study of Lebanese politics emphasizes the uncertainties related to the logic of deterrence with a nonstate actor like Hezbollah. This is why this analysis offers a cautious look at deterrence theories in the Middle East and reminds that such situations are neither naturally engendered nor eternally established.
comment on the Role of Iranian Militias in Syria
International Security, 2017
PERENNIAL JOURNAL OF HISTORY
The Middle East, a Muslim majority region in the Asian continent, has remained a centre for territorial and extraterritorial powers to secure their strategic interests significantly to access oil reserves in the region. Israel and the United States are two examples respectively. In the wake of securing strategic interests, these states tried to interfere the polity of the Muslim states that infuriated most of the Muslim leaders to such an extent that they had to go for aggressive measures to negate the influence of these interest-seekers. Iran has been leading the Muslim states in the region and has strived hard for integrating Muslim leadership. During this process of regional integration, a special focus has been paid to deal Israel-an important strategic ally of the US in the region and permanent threat for the neighbouring Muslim states. The current circumstances, causes and effects are the product of Arab-Israel wars and most of these have been cashed in by Iran for the securit...
TRT World , 2018
Israel's latest operation has led to rumors of another war, but outside of rhetoric, it doesn't look like either side is ready to stomach such a conflict.
Australian Outlook , 2024
War between Israel and Lebanon may be inevitable. What might Western support for Israel look like and how might Israel mitigate Hezbollah’s strengths and the threats of regional escalation?
Small wars & insurgencies, 2022
MEPEI Website, 2024
MA Thesis, 2020
For more than thirteen years now, Hezbollah and Israel, against all the odds of asymmetric deterrence, have been maintaining a relatively stable deterrence status quo. After the deployment of Katyusha rockets in 1992, and starting in 1996, Hezbollah established with Israel a set of rules, commonly known as, the “rules of the game”, to mediate their military confrontation on the lines of deterrence. Importantly, throughout the evolution of the deterrence relationship between both parties, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah’s discourse and speeches have become a centerpiece to assess Hezbollah’s military capability, its will, and its commitment to deter Israel. After Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000, and specifically during the 2006 war, Nasrallah, as the Secretary General of Hezbollah, further bolstered the party’s discourse of deterrence vis a vis Israel. In this context, this research work builds primarily on the analysis of Nasrallah’s speeches and statements that focus on deterrence, as translated exclusively in this thesis from Arabic to English, starting in 1992. This thesis evaluates an understudied case, asymmetric deterrence in the Middle East, by testing the theory of deterrence on Hezbollah and Israel. Likewise, it analyzes the translatability, thus, the efficacy of Hezbollah’s exponential growth in military capability, as reflected in Nasrallah’s and the party’s discourse of deterrence between the years 1992 and 2019.
American Historical Review, 2024
Lumina. Rivista di Linguistica storica e di Letteratura comparata, 2023
Advances in media, entertainment and the arts (AMEA) book series, 2017
Technical University of Munich, 2024
Written Monuments of the Orient, 2017
La primera Parada Puertorriqueña en la Isla y la afirmación de la identidad estado-nación, 2024
SENTRI: Jurnal Riset Ilmiah
Waste Management & Research: The Journal for a Sustainable Circular Economy, 2009
International journal of endocrinology, 2017
Annales françaises de médecine d'urgence, 2019
Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics, 2005