Why Has Erdogan Won His Election?

ISSN: 2957-6873 (Online) ISSN: 2957-6865 (Print) CBGA Briefs 165/2023 CBGA INSIGHTS Why Has Erdogan Won His Reelection? Published by the KRF Center for Bangladesh and Global Affairs (CBGA), July 2023 House 12, Road 4, Dhanmondi, Dhaka-1205, Bangladesh. M: +8801700 915686, +8801630 869695. E: cbgaffairs@gmail.com, https://www.cbgabd.org, https://www.facebook.com/cbgaffairs *The views and opinions expressed in the publications are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy of the Center for Bangladesh and Global Affairs (CBGA). 02 CBGA Insights 165/2023 Why Has Erdogan Won His Reelection? Kawsar Uddin Mahmud Amidst a flurry of challenges, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has emerged victorious in the second and final round of 2023 Turkish presiden�al elec�on and is projected to retain his hold on authority. For over two decades, Turkey has been under the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. During the ini�al stages of his early tenures, Turkey witnessed a noteworthy surge in its economic prosperity and a marked decline in the levels of inequality prevalent within the country. This development has been marked as one of the factors that have contributed to Erdogan’s enduring popularity As of November 2022, infla�on has surged to a staggering 85.5%, marking a 24-year high. This development has sparked conjecture that the current economic turbulence may work as a catalyst against Erdogan’s favor in the 2023 general elec�on. Notwithstanding, the prevailing circumstances, it is worth no�ng that in the first round-off of the elec�on, Erdogan managed to secure a significant 49.5% of the total votes cast and finally, became Turkey’s president for another term securing 52.14% of the votes. In this respect, Erdogan’s “great achievements” in science, technology, foreign policy and related aspects have been touted as key factors in his sustained popularity, according to some analysts. Science and Technology Advancements as Parts of Elec�on Campaign In the lead-up to the first round of the elec�on, Erdogan inundated the public with a series of declara�ons regarding his notable accomplishments and forthcoming ini�a�ves. In a bold move, Turkey has announced its inten�on to send its very first cosmonaut to the Interna�onal Space Sta�on before the year’s end. Moreover, the public was treated to a display of numerous projects at the Teknofest Aerospace and Technology Fes�val regarding this course. In a display of military might, President Erdogan unveiled Turkey’s latest addi�ons to its arsenal--a versa�le amphibious assault vessel and a cu�ng-edge armed drone with the unique ability to launch from aircra� carriers. In addi�on, under the leadership of President Erdogan, Turkey has taken significant strides toward achieving energy independence through the natural gas pipeline project in the Black Sea. Turkey’s ambi�ous plan to become a global leader in the defense industry has seen a staggering investment of over £55 billion in its na�onal defense industry. Despite failing to deliver on its promise of a fully Turkish-made vehicle and facing worsening labor condi�ons, the Togg car has surprisingly garnered significant public backing. According to recent survey results, a staggering 94% of the popula�on has exhibited their support behind the ini�a�ve. The overwhelming majority of respondents cited na�onalist and patrio�c reasons for their backing, with many expressing a desire to contribute to their own country in which Erdogan’s campaign regarding the elec�on played a remarkable role. The automobile was hailed as a significant triumph that would contribute to Turkey’s roster of con�nuing accomplishments. In a recent statement, President Erdogan lauded ‘Togg as a source of collec�ve pride’ for both the na�on of Tukey and its 85 million ci�zens. The intrepid entrepreneurs behind Togg have been hailed as “brave fellows” by him. Erdogan’s Foreign Policy Achievements Situated at the crossroads of Europe and the Middle East, Turkey under the tenure of Erdogan has de�ly navigated the tumultuous waters of an ever-evolving global landscape. From fluctua�ng interna�onal partnerships to the humanitarian fallout of civil conflicts, cross-border terrorism, and mass migra�on, this na�on has faced a host of challenges with resilience and adaptability. Over the past two decades, Ankara has carefully traversed a pragma�c foreign policy, resul�ng in an elevated standing for its posi�on in the global order. However, throughout the years, Turkey has implemented a series of economic reforms aimed at drawing in foreign investment, promo�ng priva�za�on, and facilita�ng CBGA Insights 165/2023 the job crea�on in sectors such as construc�on. These measures have enabled Turkey to allocate resources towards its foreign policy objec�ves. Moreover, Naviga�ng the intricate web of rela�onships through a balancing act with its neighbor countries ravaged by conflict and turmoil presents a fresh array of obstacles and prospects. More importantly, ever since the onset of the Ukraine war in February 2022, global leaders have been on tenterhooks. The impact of the war on the worldwide economy and the apprehension that it may escalate into a broader confronta�on have compounded the prevailing anxie�es. Throughout the year-long war, Ukraine and Russia found themselves in a state of constant disagreement. However, amidst the tension, a glimmer of hope emerged in the form of the Black Sea grain deal. This groundbreaking ini�a�ve was brought to frui�on through the collabora�ve efforts of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the United Na�ons. In addi�on, in a diploma�c move, Erdogan has extended an offer to act as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine in order to bring an end to the ongoing hos�li�es, finding a peaceful solu�on. While many NATO countries have been quick to impose economic embargoes on Russia, Turkey has taken a more measured approach. Despite Russia being an important trading partner, Turkey has pursued a delicate neutral stance and shown restraint and refrained from blindly following the lead of its NATO allies. Erdogan’s Earthquake Management The series of earthquakes that recently shook south-eastern Turkey and parts of Syria have had a profound impact on the poli�cal landscape. With a death toll exceeding 24,500 in Turkey and 4,500 in Syria, and thousands of more injured, the scale of the disaster has brought about a precarious implica�on at all levels. The a�ermath has also le� an unknown number of individuals missing. As a result, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s elec�on plans have been thrown into disarray. However, despite forecasts from analysts that the catastrophe would nega�vely impact Erdogan's poten�al for reelec�on, the vo�ng results exhibited them unequivocally incorrect. Per reports, President 03 Erdogan and his AK Party had emerged as the clear frontrunners in eight out of the 11 harmed provinces, both in the presiden�al and parliamentary elec�ons. Meanwhile, the Na�on Alliance and the leader of the le�ist main opposi�on Republican People’s Party (CHP), Kemal Kilicdaroglu, has only managed to secure a significant lead in Adana and Diyarbakir. However, president Erdogan has made numerous trips to earthquake-stricken areas and has swi�ly ini�ated a massive reconstruc�on effort across the country. A�er the series of earthquakes caused widespread destruc�on in rural regions, the Erdogan government announced plans to construct 650,000 homes, including 143,000 village homes. There have been thousands of container homes brought to earthquake zones to help meet the housing requirements of the people there, and the government has promised to build at least 319,000 more housing within a year. As a result, Ankara’s diligent efforts to enhance the basic necessi�es of those affected by earthquakes have yielded posi�ve results, as evidenced by the recent elec�on outcomes that heavily favored the Erdogan-led coali�on and the AK Party in the most devastated regions. Kemal’s An�-Refugee Campaign vs Erdogan’s Balanced Stance Before the elec�on, a par�cular phrase has been making its rounds on billboards throughout the country. In a controversial move, Kemal Kilicdaroglu and his opposi�on has opted for a slogan that has been deemed by some as racist in order to gain an advantage in the current elec�on cycle. The primary objec�ve of the propaga�on appears to be the repatria�on of Syrian refugees, even if it means endangering their lives. According to opposi�on leaders, ensuring the safety and job security of Turkish ci�zens without encroachment from other na�onali�es is of utmost importance. On the other hand, Erdogan pursued a balanced stance regarding the refugees par�cularly, the Syrian refugees. In a recent address, President Erdogan highlighted his administra�on's commendable efforts in voluntarily repatria�ng 560,000 refugees. He further vowed to 04 CBGA Insights 165/2023 con�nue this worthy goal by facilita�ng the return and rese�lement of an addi�onal 1 million refugees. The poten�al normaliza�on of rela�ons between Turkey and the Assad regime is closely linked with the issue of refugee repatria�on. Against the backdrop of moun�ng xenophobia in Turkey, exacerbated by the country's economic disarray, and the recent rapprochement with the Assad regime in the Arab world, the prospect of Turkish-Syrian normaliza�on seems increasingly inevitable. In a recent development, Mevlut Cavusoglu, the Turkish foreign minister and member of the AKP revealed to the local media that a “plan of ac�on” for the "prac�cal" come back of refugees to regime-controlled areas of Syria was importantly discussed in a mee�ng with the top diplomats of the Assad regime, Iran, and Russia in Moscow. However, apart from all the developments, Erdogan has also been able to manage the Kurdish opposi�on, the Western media propaga�on against him and overall followed a scrupulous approach that led him gain an ul�mate victory in the na�onal elec�on of 2023. About the Contributor Kawsar Uddin Mahmud is a Research Intern at the KRF Center for Bangladesh and Global Affairs (CBGA). KRF 5 +8801700 915686, +8801630 869695 KRF KRF KRF