Velleius Paterculus and the Pannonii: Making up the numbers

ISSN 0350-0020 AKADEMIJA NAUKA I UMJETNOSTI BOSNE I HERCEGOVINE AKADEMIE DER WISSENSCHAFTEN UND KÜNSTE VON BOSNIEN-HERZEGOWINA GODIŠNJAK JAHRBUCH KNJIGA/ BAND XXXV Centar za balkanološka ispitivanja Zentrum für Balkanforschungen Knjiga I Band 33 Redakcija / Redaktion Dzevad Juzbašić,Zdravko Marić, Veljko Paškvalin, Blagoje Govedarica Urednik / Herausgeber Blagoje Govedarica SARAJEVO 2006 Štampano uz podršku Federalnog ministarstva kulture i sporta чosne i Hercegovine i Njemačkog arheološkog instituta Gedruckt mit Unterstützung des Föderalen Ministeriums für Kultur und Sport Bosnien-Herzegowina und des Deutschen Archäologischen Instituts љadržaj / Inhaltsverzeichnis Članci / Aufsätze Ante Milošević / Željko Peković Povijesne i arheološke potvrde za srednjovjekovni Mostar / Historical and archaeological documents for medieval Mostar ......... 5 Dušanka Kučan / Steffen Wolters / Felix Bittmann Prvi izvještaj o istraživanju ugljenisanog materijala neolitskog naselja Okolište (шentralna Bosna) / Erste Berichte über pollenanalytische und archäobotanische Untersuchungen aus der neolithischen љiedlung Okolište (Zentral-Bosnien)...................... 51 Tina Hartmann Zugtransport, Rad und Wagen: technologische und kulturhistorische Aspekte der Erfindung der ersten Fahrzeuge / Vučni transport, točak, kolaп tehnološki i kulturno-istorijski aspekti pronalaska prvih prevoznih sredstava ................................................................... 71 Blagoje Govedarica Keramika cetinskog tipa u unutrašnjosti zapadnog Balkana i problem kulturno-istorijske interpretacije praistorijskih nalaza / Keramik des Cetina-Typs im westbalkanischen Hinterland und Problem der kulturhistorischen Interpretation des urgeschichtlichen Fundamaterials ............................................... 95 Staša Babić Iron Marshaltowns of the Balkans – Ethnography of an Archaeological Community / Maršaltaun mistrije na Balkanu – Etnografija jedne arheološke zajednice ........................ 115 Zdravko Marić Grafiti sa grčkih posuda iz razrušenog ilirskog grada Daorsona iznad sela Ošanića kod љtoca u Hercegovini, III dio / Graffiti auf griechischen Gefäßen aus der zerstörten illyrischen Stadt Daorson in der Nähe des Dorfes Ošanići bei Stolac in der Herzegowina, Teil III ................................................................. 125 3 Danijel Džino Velleius Paterculus and the Pannonii: Making up the Numbers / Velej Paterkul i Panoni: premetanje brojki ........................................ 145 Veljko Paškvalin / Melisa Forić љlučajni rimski nalaz iz Krivoglavaca kod Vogošće / Accidental Roman Find from Krivoglavci near Vogošća .................... 161 Mirsad Bakalović Ranosrednjovjekovna nekropola Kicelj kod Tuzle / Early Medieval Necropolis Kicelj near Tuzla...................................... 179 Esad Kurtović Zlatarići, trgovci iz Goražda / Zlatarićs – merchants from Goražde . 197 Kritike i prikazi / Besprechungen чrunislav Marijanović, Eneolitik i eneolitičke kulture u чosni i Hercegovini (B. Govedarica) ............................................................................................... 211 In memoriam Marian Wenzel (Elma Hašimbegović) ........................................................... Zdravko Marić (Zilka Kujundžić-Vejzagić) ................................................... 221 224 Hronika /Chronik ........................................................................................... Adrese autora / Autorenadressen................................................................... 227 229 4 Velleius Paterculus and the Pannonii: Making up the numbers Danijel Džino Adelaide Introduction The great Pannonian Rebellion, the Bellum Batonianum of AD 6 – 9 was one of the most significant events, if not the most significant one in the history of Roman dealings with Illyricum.1 Its significance went far beyond local, provincial history, shaping the future foreign policy conduct of the Empire in the early principate, and perhaps, combined with the clades Variana in the Teutoburg forest, stopped Roman political and military expansion in North and Central Europe. For the first time in many years, even Italy was in fear from the external enemy. This was the first rebellion of this kind after the end of the Republic that seriously undermined the Roman confidence and even shook their position and prestige in recently occupied territories. The bibliography of the works dealing with the reconstruction of the events that happened in Illyricum AD 6 – 9 and the search for their causes and consequences is not too extensive.2 Our purpose in this paper is to focus on one interesting matter that modern scholarship still tends to overlook and not seriously scrutinise. The matter in question is the number of the rebels the Romans encountered at the beginning of the uprising of the ethnic group known in antiquity as the Pannonii.3 Modern authorities mainly accept the number 1 I would like to express my deepest gratitude to Dr. Ron Newbold (the University of Adelaide) for his useful comments and suggestions that significantly improved the quality of this paper. Illyricum was divided into Pannonia and Dalmatia some time after the rebellion started, but the opinions of scholars are divided on that matter. Fitz 1988 lists all major opinions up to date, dating that event much later than his predecessors. 2 Vulić 1911, 200-247; Vulić 1926, 55-72; Rau 1925; Köstermann 1953; Pašalić 1956; Wilkes 1965; Wilkes 1969, 69-77; Nagy 1970; Dyson 1971, 250-253; Anamali 1987; Sordi 2004. 3 For the ethnic element of uprising, see below. App. Ill. 14 and Strabo, 7.5.10 (C 317) use the ethnic term Παννόνιοι. Cassius Dio introduces confusion, referring to the Pannonians and Dalmatians, as inhabitants of these Roman provinces, rather than as ethnic or cul- 145 given by the historian Velleius Paterculus, who estimated the number of rebels at a terrifying 200,000 well-trained (colligebantur armis habilia) foot soldiers, and 9,000 cavalry recruited out of a total population of 800,000 in revolt.4 Although criticised for his general account of the rebellion, Velleius is still assumed to be reasonably informed about the military situation.5 It seems intriguing how modern authorities have failed to criticise Velleius for this substantial, although typical for ancient writers, exaggeration in numbers.6 Let us look closely into the numbers provided by the sources and estimates of modern scholars. As said above, Velleius claims that there were 209,000 combatants out of 800,000 insurgent population. He also provides number for one of the two main rebel operative groups that comprised, surprisingly, only 20,000 fighters.7 The number of Roman forces assembled in Siscia, in the first winter of the war, AD 6 – 7, was stated to be 100,000, when Tiberius decided to get rid of 2 whole legions, although allegedly facing twice as many opponents.8 Finally, it is worthy to note that Appian, writing 2 centuries later, claims that the Pannonii can raise 100,000 fighters together.9 Modern scholarship, especially the capital works of G. Alföldy and J. Wilkes, estimated the population of the Roman province Dalmatia to have been approximately 700,000 – 800,000 inhabitants. Excluding citizens of Roman colonies at the Eastern Adriatic coast and the native peoples, which did not take part in the Pannonian rebellion, the total population of the peoples rebelling in AD 6 is estimated at 400,000.10 So, with the addition of peoples from southern Pannonia, such as the Breuci, as the rebellion never expanded north of the river Drava, a number of 209,000 combatants given by Velleius Paterculus seems a clear exaggeration, even in this approximation of population numbers in Illyricum. This paper is going to test these numbers by locating peoples who took part in the uprising, calculating their demography and a degree of mobilisation in the attempt to provide reasonable estimate of the size of the Pannonian military force in AD 6. tural groups. љee Vulić 1оии, 84-86; Alföldy 1965, 50-51; Syme 1971, 19-21. In this paper the terms Dalmatians and Pannonians denote the Pannonii from Dalmatia, (including the Delmatae who were closely linked to the Pannonii, cf. n. 22 below) or Pannonia. 4 Vell. Pat. 2.110.3. Köstermann 1953, 353; Mócsy 1962, 547; Wilkes 1977, 751; Gruen 1996, 176. 5 Vulić 1911, 201-2; Rau 1925, 316; Syme, 1934, 340; Wilkes 1965, 112-114; Mócsy 1983, 173-174 for criticism of Velleius Paterculus. Köstermann 1953, 346; Pašalić 1956, 253256; Woodman 1977, 153-183 are more positive towards Velleius. 6 Pašalić 1956, 246; had some doubts, and Mócsy 1983, 177 n. 46 laconically regards this number as “improbable”. 7 Vell. Pat. 2.113.3, discussed below. 8 Vell. Pat. 2.113.1-3, discussed below. 9 App. Ill. 22. 10 Alföldy 1965, 24. 29 n. 17, 600-700,000 including 200-300,000 staying out of the rebellion. Wilkes 1977, 752-753; roughly estimate the total population of Dalmatia as 700,000. 146 Who rebelled in AD 6? The first step is to determine which native peoples rebelled against Rome. The sources mention the following ones by name: the Daesitiates, Mezaei, Ditiones and Pirustae from Dalmatia, the Andizetes, Amantini and Breuci from Pannonia.11 As said earlier, the peculiar feature of the rebellion lies in its ethnic character. All the peoples involved in this rebellion were specifically named in the sources as the Pannonii. With more or less success, combining the evidence provided by their material culture, personal names, and ancient sources, they can be distinguished from the neighbouring cultural groups as a distinctive cultural identity.12 The most important cohesive element is a distinctive common sense of identity, the name Pannonii / Πα ό ι ι noted in ancient sources. It is indeed very possible that the Pannonii were in part created as an ‘imaginary community’ from number of heterogeneous but culturally akin communities in the Adriatic hinterland by the Romans and their cognitive political geography like Gaul and the Gauls, Cisalpine Gaul or spatial concept of Illyricum.13 Yet, their sense of common identity, “virtual experience” of what is to be Pannonian,14 certainly developed and strengthened during and after the Roman conquest in the first century BC – Octavian’s campaigns 35 – 33 BC and the Bellum Pannonicum 12 – 9 BC. It is what Dyson calls, perhaps too broadly, “nativistic atmosphere”15 that played the role of catalyst in this uprising. The Pannonii shared a common destiny after being conquered, in that they shared a common frustration with sudden social change by becoming part of the Empire. This frustration was combined with a sense of ethnic unity, which in turn created ethnic homogenisation and xenophobia, resulting in a sharp polarisation between ‘us’ (the Pannonii) and ‘them’ (the Romans and all others accepting Roman government). Those factors united the most conservative elements amongst the Pannonii that fiercely opposed the change and gave an impetus towards the rebellion. The other ethnic groups in Illyricum such as the Celts, Liburni, Iapodes and southern, or ethnic Illyrians are never said to have joined the rebel11 Vell. Pat. 2.105.4 (the Pirustae and Daesitiates); Dio, 55.29.2-3 (the Breuci and Daesitiates); 55.32.4 (the Mezaei); Ruf. Fest. 7 (the Amantini). Strabo, 7.5.3 (C 314) adds the Andizetes and Ditiones to the list of peoples whose ἡγε ώ is Bato. 12 Marić 1964, (material culture); Katičić 1965, 69-73; Alföldy 1965, 50-54; Wilkes 1969, 167-171 (names) and, recently, synthetic account in Šašel-Kos 2005, 375 ff. The identification of the Pannonii using this methodology inevitably imposes some problems, Benac 1987, 795-798. 13 For the Gaul see Ebel 1976; Woolf 1998, 48-54; Cisalpina: Purcell 1990; Illyricum: Dzino 2005; Dzino 2007. The process might have been already started in the mid-second century BC when the earliest mention of the Pannonii occurs in the sources, Polyb. Fr. 64. 14 Two main interacting factors are recognised by Jenkins as key theoretical factors influencing the development of identity: nominal – the name that defines communal identity and virtual – the experience that defines what particular name means, Jenkins 1997. 15 Dyson 1971, 253. 147 lion.16 The Liburni and Iapodes can easily be excluded from the rebellion after the inscription CIL 5,3346, mentioning an unknown extraordinary magistrate ruling over the Iapodes and Liburni during the rebellion.17 The Celtic Scordici in Moesia and Pannonia are never mentioned in the context of the rebellion. If they had joined the rebellion, the Moesian army under Caecina Severus would not have been able to help fight the rebellion. The southern Illyrians are also never mentioned as taking part in the rebellion. Despite the argument of Anamali insisting on the involvement of the southern Illyrians in the uprising,18 there is no report of any operations conducted south of the river Neretva, which was inhabited by ethnic southern Illyrians. The only event involving this area in the fighting happened in AD 6 when Bato the Daesitiate ordered the pillage of coastal communities that extended as far south as Apollonia.19 According to Pliny the Elder, the province of Dalmatia was administratively divided into 3 conventus for peregrine communities, Scardona, Salona and Narona, and the native peoples divided into civitates and further into decuriae.20 Pliny gives the exact number of decuriae for every peregrine civitas from the conventus of Salona and Narona, where the bulk of the rebels were. Certainly, we need to be careful, as the relationship between the administrative civitates and native proto-state formations existing before the rebellion is unknown. Larger (and more dangerous) peoples were divided, and it seems obvious that ethnically similar smaller peoples were grouped together in the same civitates on some occasions.21 The involvement of the peoples from the Salonitan conventus in the uprising seems reasonably easy to determine. In addition to the Mezaei and Ditiones, we should add the Delmatae to the rebels. The Delmatae are not mentioned explicitly in the sources, but it would be surprising if they stayed out of the rebellion, especially taking in account their close cultural links with the Pannonii.22 The swift movement of Bato the Daesitiate to the Adriatic resulting in the unsuccessful siege of Salona in AD 6 would be impossible without the full support from the Delmatae. He made his last stand in the citadel of Andetrion in the territory of the Delmatae in AD 9. Also, we should Native ethnic and cultural groups in Illyricum: Alföldy 1965, 33 ff.; Katičić 1964; Katičić 1965; Wilkes 1969, 157 ff. 17 Rau 1925, 344-345; Alföldy 1965, 29 n. 17; Suić 1991/92, 57. 62 n. 14. Cf. also CIL 3, 3158. 18 Anamali 1987, rightly criticised by Benac 1991. 19 Dio, 55.29.4. The Pirustae who lived closest to the southern coast most certainly made this raid as they used to do in the past; cf. Caes. B Gall 5.1. The revolt was caused by the frustration of the Pannonii with the social transition brought by the recent Roman conquest, cf. Dyson 1971, 250-253, the issues southern Illyrians were dealing with for a long time. 20 Pliny, HN 3.139-144. This administrative arrangement derives from the time of P. Cornelius Dolabella c. AD 14-20; Alföldy 1961, 60-61; Alföldy 1965, 36-37.70-71; Wilkes 1969, 185.484. 21 Wilkes 1996, 578. 22 Katičić1олир Katičić 1олк, 69-73. 16 148 assume, with reasonable certainty, that the smaller Pannonian communities of the Deuri and Sardeatae also joined the rebellion.23 The situation in the Naronitan conventus is a more difficult to determine. While the Daesitiates are named, there is no mention of the Pirustae in Pliny’s list. However, it is possible to accept the well-founded argument of Alföldy and Wilkes that the Pirustae were broken up after the rebellion into the separate civitates of the Cerauni, Scirtari and Siculotae, who are included in Pliny’s list for the Naronitan conventus.24 Except the Deretines who are assumed to be Pannonii by major authorities,25 and thus more possibly involved in the uprising, it is difficult to accept that the other peoples from the Naronitan conventus were involved, especially taking into account that no source mentions any threat to the important city of Narona, something we would expect if hostile native peoples surrounded the city. The numerous Narensii are not mentioned by the sources as rebels, and modern scholarship is still not certain of their ethnicity.26 However, it would be reasonable to expect that such a large people be mentioned in the sources if involved in the rebellion. Furthermore, the civitates of Daorsi, Melcumani and Glintidiones as well as the Deramistae, Ardiaei and Docleatae were all culturally southern Illyrians, not the Pannonii.27 In addition, there were the Dindari who apparently had a strong Celtic cultural influence, possibly being a part of the Scordiscan alliance before Roman conquest.28 Demography and mobilisation The demography of Dalmatia and Pannonia still remains a difficult, if not impossible task for any scholar who attempts to reconstruct it. A rough estimate of the population can also be provided by drawing an analogy with the provinces that had similar demographic circumstances such as pre-Roman Gaul, where scholars assume the density to be 9 – 13 inhabitants per km2.29 The Pannonii were a mainly rural the population, there were no large 23 Location and ethnicity of the Deuri and Sardeatae: Alföldy 1965, 101; Wilkes, 1969, 170; Bojanovski 1988, 260-261. 24 Alföldy 1965, 56-59; Wilkes 1969, 173-176. 25 Cf. Alföldy 1965, 53; Wilkes 1969, 170; Bojanovski 1988, 129-132. 26 Alföldy 1965, 47-48; Wilkes 1969, 164-165; Bojanovski 1988, 137-138, regard them as ethnic southern Illyrians with a strong Celtic cultural element. 27 Alföldy 1965, 45-50; Wilkes 1969, 165-166 and Bojanovski 1988, 88-115. Only the Glintidiones are seen by Wilkes 1969, 176 as the Pannonii. 28 Alföldy 1964, 109.123-127; Wilkes 1969, 172. Contra Katičić 1965, 63-69 (southern Illyrians); Papazoglu 1978, 171-178. 29 Wightman, 1985, 32-33 (11-13 persons/km2 for pre-Roman Gallia Belgica); Frier 2000, 812 Tab. 5 (9.1 persons/km2 in AD 14 Gaul). Frier in the same place assumes the density at 6.3 persons/km2 for all Danubian provinces. Cf. Čače 1979, 72 who assumes population density of 8-12 inhabitants per km2 for the Iapodes. 149 cities in the hinterland of Illyricum in the pre-Roman period where the bulk of the population might be concentrated, except Segestica,30 and the large mountainous area of the Dinaric Alps that they mostly inhabited was not able to support a larger population. So, it seems hardly believable that the population density was much higher than 10 people per km2, taking in account the relatively scarce archaeological finds in the area and the events that could have significant demographic impact on a population such as the Bellum Pannonicum 12 – 9 BC when, besides all the devastation and casualties, Tiberius sold all Breucian prisoners into slavery. They would represent a significant part of the most experienced fighting force in AD 6 – 9, the 30 – 45 olds.31 The territory inhabited by the rebelling Pannonii and Delmatae was approximately 71,000 km2 and that gives 710,000 – 750,000 as an estimated number of inhabitants with assumed population densities of 10 and 12 inhabitants per km2 as an upper limit (Table 1.1).32 The usual estimate of a ratio between the number of all adult males of warrior age and the total population is fixed at 1:4 or 1:5, i.e. 20-25% of population. According to the estimates based on the Roman census figures, the iuniores, military able males aged 17 to 46, made 21-22% of the population.33 Frier’s table for the population structure of the Roman empire estimates that the proportion of those in the age group between 15 and 45 was 47.53% of all males, and census returns from Roman Egypt show that 53% of all males were in the age group between 15 and 49.34 It is also necessary to take into account that the Pannonii as a predominantly rural population had a more significant share of older people in the population than Roman citizens would have.35 So, tak30 In addition to lack of archaeological confirmation for more dense settlement in the area inhabited by the Pannonii, the sources give the common impression of a sparsely inhabited area; cf. App. Ill. 22; Mócsy 1962, 522. 31 Dio, 54, 31, 2-4. See Keeley 1996, 88-94 for the significant demographic impact of war on the small communities. 32 I have followed a simplified account, the territory of present-day Bosnia-Herzegovina is 51,000 km2 and the rectangle formed by Segestica, the rivers Sava, Drava and Danube is c. 20,000 km2. That leaves some of the Delmatae and Pirustae outside of the area but is counter-balanced by the Narensii, and the ethnic Illyrian eastern bank of Neretva that did not take part in the rebellion, as well as the parts of present Bosnia inhabited by the Iapodes and Dindari. Any error should be negligible. 33 Brunt 1971, 52-53.66-67, estimates the iuniores to represent 22% of the total population, and adult males 30-31% of the total population; cf. Hopkins 1978, 69 (29%); Lo Cascio 1994, 37-38 Tab. 1; Lo Cascio 2001, 135-136 n.1. The Athenians in fourth century BC mobilised only those in the age group between 20 and 39, and only in exceptional situations extended the call to the age group between 18 and 49, Hansen 1986, 28 ff. 34 Frier 1982, 245, Tab. 5. Frier successfully tested his model on the example of IV century AD skeletal remains from the Keszthely-Dobogó locality near the lake Balaton in Hungary, Frier 1983, 331-334. Egyptian census figures: Bagnall/Frier 1994, 97; Frier 2000, 794-795. Caution in using these population models is well-argued by Scheidel 2001, esp. 19-20. 35 Age composition of the census population from Roman Egypt clearly shows an increased share of older people in the villages as compared with large cities, Bagnall/Frier 1994, 105 Fig. 5,5; cf. Scobie 1986 for the high mortality in large cities of the Roman era. 150 ing a middle ground for calculation purposes, we can assume that in the total population there were 22% of males of military age, taking also into account historical circumstances that would favour lower ratio of males within the total population of the Pannonii in AD 6.36 That estimate would result in 156,000-165,000 of potential soldiers, the number that already falls bellow Velleius’ initial count (њable 1.1). The level of mobilisation is unknown, but it is impossible to assume total 100% mobilisation of all adult males of military age. We certainly must take in account that the Pannonian armies consisted mainly of volunteers and not conscripts, so that we cannot expect that they achieved such extremely high level of mobilisation like, for example, the Romans in the Second Punic war.37 The scattered population and lack of centralised political structures amongst the native kinship groups, that made up the social texture of Pannonian society, guaranteed lower rather than higher level of mobilisation,38 taking also into account all those in the population that were physically or mentally unfit.39 Both Dio and Velleius suggest that the rebels suffered from famine during the first winter of the war.40 That may well be the consequence of a poor harvest and devastation brought about by war, but also of a higher level of mobilisation and poor logistics. However, these statements can be applied mostly to the Pannonians, and it is indeed believable that the Pannonians raised more soldiers than Dalmatians, as their homeland was the theatre of war in the first year of the rebellion.41 Furthermore, we have reason to believe that the level of mobilisation amongst the Dalmatians was initially lower than amongst the Pannonians. When the rebellion started, the rebels divided their forces into three operative groups: northeast, south, southeast and home army. In the northeast the Breuci attacked Sirmium, in the south the Daesitiates with the allies attacked the coast, Bato sent the Pirustae to raid the south-eastern Adriatic coast, and there were certainly some home36 Morley 2001, 51 n.7 questioned Brunt and Hopkins (n. 33 above) because they assumed the ratio of males and females to be 1:1 not reflecting the actual sex ratio in the ancient world that was characterised by the abundance of males in the population, (see Engels 1984, 387-388.390-391 n.20; Parkin 1992, 98-105) and puts the proportion of all adult males in the population at 33-34%. The demographic situation amongst the Pannonii would certainly favor lower number of males as the consequence of the losses suffered in the Bellum Pannonicum, as argued above. 37 “… it is obvious that armies composed to a large extent of volunteers usually represent a smaller share of the adult population than armies of conscripts.”, Lo Cascio 2001, 133. 38 Čače 1979, 108 assumes that mobilisation of the Delmataean alliance in pre-Roman times was made through previously fixed numbers that individual kinship groups were obliged to provide. 39 Hansen 1986, 16-20 estimates that at least 20% of citizens were exempted for health reasons from military service in the fourth century BC Athenian army. 40 Vell. Pat. 2.112.3 (Pannonians); cf. Dio, 55.33.1 (Pannonians and Dalmatians). 41 After the Dalmatians and Pannonians joined forces, Dio, 55.30.2, all the operations were limited to Pannonia, except for the single raid of Germanicus, Dio, 55.32.4. 151 based reserves.42 M. Valerius Messala Messalinus (cos. 3 BC), praepositus Illyrico, engaged the enemy with the semiplena legio XX, ultimately defeating the southern operative group led by the Daesitiate Bato, which certainly included warriors from most of the Pannonian peoples from Dalmatia, excluding the Pirustae who were engaged on the Macedonian border. Velleius Paterculus estimated the number of the Pannonii in that battle to be 20,000.43 This number sounds right. In 34 BC the Delmataean alliance that possibly included some neighbouring peoples from Salonitan conventus such as the Ditiones or Deuri,44 raised two armies against Octavian. The larger army of the Delmatae led by the princeps Versus numbered 12,000 soldiers and the number of the second, smaller, army, led by another princeps, Testimus, is not stated by the sources. Čače estimated it to be around 8,000 soldiers, totalling 20,000 and there is no reason to doubt it.45 Back in AD 6, with the addition of the Daesitiate squadron the rebels from the Salonitan conventus would easily raise 20,000. After failing to take Salona, the Dalmatians are mainly engaged in fighting in Pannonia, further from their homes. It seems reasonable, for logistic and strategic reasons, to assume that Bato the Daesitiate relied on a smaller mobile force of young warriors, with its core composed of the elite warriors initially assembled as the auxiliary contingent required for going to war against Marobroduus.46 Thus, even if we assume that the level of mobilisation for both Dalmatians and Pannonians was as high as two thirds of all military capable males in the rebelling civitates, a level we might question as being much too high,47 Velleius’ initial number of insurgents must be halved. Therefore, the number of Pannonian warriors under arms in AD 6 according to our estimate should not be less than 78,000 – 82,500 if mobilisation was 50% and certainly not higher than 103,000 – 109,000, if mobilisation was 66% (Table 1.2). Excluding 9,000 cavalry,48 it leaves us with an estimated 69,000 – 100,000 foot soldiers (Table 1.3). 42 Dio, 55.29-30; Vell. Pat. 2.110.4 is unaware of the Breucian movement to Sirmium, Wilkes 1965, 113. 43 Vell. Pat. 2.112.1-2; Dio 55.30.1-5. Köstermann 1953, 350 and n.3; Mócsy 1962, 545, locate this battle to the coast of Dalmatia, while Rau 1925, 317; Wilkes 1965, 113; Wilkes 1969, 70; Syme 1934, 370 locate it in the vicinity of Siscia. 44 Čače 1993 7-8. 45 App. Ill. 25-26; Čače 1979, 103-109. 46 They begin the revolt, cf. Dio, 55.29.2. 47 More than 50%, (close to 75%) of the iuniores, were conscripted into the legions during the most dangerous years of the second Punic war, Lo Cascio 2001, 135, Tab. 1B cf. Brunt 1971, 66. There were still plenty of slaves remaining to provide essential production, the luxury Pannonii certainly did not have. A more conservative estimate of 50% of all males of military age as a conscription rate of the insurgents could be more convincing. 48 Mócsy 1983, 172 ff. regards Velleius’ numbers given for cavalry as believable. 152 Making up the numbers There are a couple of additional facts we can employ to test this estimate. Appian of Alexandria mentions that the Pannonii are capable of producing a total of 100,000 soldiers, a number that fits well within our estimate. The only historical occasion when the Pannonii were united into single military force was the Bellum Batonianum, and this number should be assumed to rely on some other, more reliable, assessment of Pannonian forces in the Bellum Batonianum.49 Also, we know that Tiberius had more than 100,000 soldiers in Siscia in the winter AD 6-7. There were 10 legions, 70 auxiliary cohorts, 14 cavalry units, 10,000 veterans and some volunteers.50 It would be difficult and unnecessary to sustain such an army for logistical reasons if the size of the rebellion was smaller than previously thought, and that is what Velleius claims. The concentration of the forces was due more to the initial panicking of Augustus, … tantus huius belli metus fuit … Caesaris Augusti animum quateret atque terreret, than to њiberius’ tactics of ‘shock and awe’ as implied by Gruen.51 It is in a way easy to understand the concerns of Augustus. The situation might have looked much more dangerous from the first moment. All the forces of Illyricum were stationed in Carnuntum on the upper Danube, the extent of the rebellion was unknown as to whether it was spreading further through Illyricum to the ethnic Illyrians and Iapodes, or even the Alpine peoples and Moesia. That escalation would result with much graver consequences for the Romans and cut off Tiberius with main forces from the Italian mainland. So, when Tiberius in Siscia assessed that the rebellion remained localised, the total number of the rebels was smaller than previously thought, and thus the possible threat they posed to his forces and the security of Italian mainland diminished, he decided to get rid of two whole legions and a part of the cavalry, and personally escorted them towards Sirmium.52 App. Ill. 22. Marasco thought that he supplemented his chief source (Augustus’ Autobiography) on this place with some additional data from some earlier Greek source; cf. Marasco, 1993, 466. However, as we pointed out the only time when the Pannonii represented united force was in this occasion, so it seems reasonable to assume that he was using some other account of the rebellion, the same one as Dio, perhaps Servilius Nonianus, Sordi 2004, 226-227. Rau 1925, 314-315 recognised two sources of Dio: one, an eyewitness from Germanicus’ circle and a second secondary source hostile to њiberius. 50 Vell. Pat. 2.113.1-3. It is clear from Dio, 55.30.1; Suet. Aug. 25 that Augustus conscribed volunteers only for strengthening the defence of Dalmatian cities, as they were the first potential victims of the rebellion such as Salona. 51 Vell. Pat. 2.110.6; Köstermann 1953, 362-363; Sumner 1970, 272; Gruen 1996, 177. 52 Vell. Pat. 2.113.2-3. Tiberius would require 1,667-8,333 tones of grain per month to feed his army according to the calculation of Roman individual military rations on 0.54-1.36 kg/day by Millett 1990, 56-57. The rebels would require twice as much if Velleius’ numbers were right, and that would be impossible to organise even only during the campaigning season. 49 153 Thus, we need to place the statement of Velleius Paterculus in objective settings, and see the Pannonii remaining as still dangerous force, but involving a much more believable force, which was no smaller than 69,000 foot soldiers, if we take the lowest value of our final estimate, and no larger than 100,000, if we take the highest value of the estimate with the addition of 9,000 cavalry (Table 1.3). The middle value of these estimates is 85,000 foot soldiers and 9,000 cavalry and it corresponds well with the number of the Pannonii under arms as given by Appian. Regardless of the limitations imposed by a lack of sources, this calculation clearly shows that the number of rebels fighting Romans was much less than previously thought. Velleius may have estimated the number of Pannonian fighters from the figures taken from the hypothetical53 census of Illyricum, as 200,000 out of total 800,000, and that is not such an unusual estimate in ancient times.54 However, this estimate of Velleius would not take in account that this number also included ethnic groups in Illyricum that did not take part in the rebellion. Alternatively, it is also possible that he just heard, believed and simply wrote down the rumors circulating in Rome after the rebellion started. As said before, Velleius’ own perspective as a contemporary witness of the events visibly affects his report of the events and even the facts of the Bellum Batonianum. Thus, we cannot be surprised at all if there really was a genuine rumour circulating in AD 6 in Rome that 200,000 savage and fierce Pannonii are ready to invade and devastate Italy at any moment. љažetak Velej Paterkul i Panoni: premetanje brojki (Koliko je Panona bilo pod oružjem u Bellum Batonianum?) Rimski povjesničar Velej Paterkul procjenjuje broj Panonskih pobunjenika u Bellum Batonianum 6-9 n.e. na 200,000 pješaka i 9,000 konjice. Mada često kritična prema Veleju, moderna znanost do sada nije kritički razmatrala ove podatke, već ih je prihvatala kao činjenicu. Ovaj rad preispituje Velejeve brojke, 53 There are no references to such a census, but it can be assumed after the Bellum Pannonicum was completed in 9 BC. 800,000 persons in peregrine communities of a whole, undivided, Illyricum is a very possible fact. The census might have counted all the population above a certain age for taxation purposes as Beloch 1886, 374 ff. argued. See modern criticism of Beloch in Lo Cascio 1994, esp. 32. 54 At least that is what Caesar also used to do; cf. B Gall 1.29 and Mócsy 1983, 177 n. 46. 154 nastojeći da procjeni demografsku situaciju kod pobunjenih naroda te stupanj mobilizacije vojno sposobnih muškaraca koji se mogao izvesti u datim okolnostima. Ukupan broj Panona se određuje kroz pretpostavljene gustoće populacije od 10 i 12 stanovnika na km2, koje su ekvivalentne postojećim procjenama demografije zapadnoeuropskih Rimskih provincija sa sličnom gustinom nastanjenosti. Dalje se računa omjer vojno sposobnih muškaraca u populaciji, te nivo mobilizacije vojno sposobnoga stanovništva korištenjem metodologije suvremenih demografskih studija antičke populacije. Konačni rezultati nedvojbeno pokazuju da su Velejeve brojke pretjerane i zaključak je da se broj pobunjenika mora reducirati na realnijih 69,000 - 100,000 pješaka i 9,000 konjice, odnosno 85,000 pješaka ako se uzme srednja vrijednost. Razlozi za Velejevo pretjerivanje mogu se tražiti u Augustovoj početnoj panici, Velejevoj procjeni veličine Panonske armije kroz podatke iz (hipotetskoga) cenzusa Ilirika koji je ubrajao cjelokupno peregrinsko stanovništvo Ilirika, glasinama koje su kružile Rimom početkom sukoba, ili kombinacijom svih navedenih činilaca. Abbreviations ANRW ANUBiH GCBI CBI CAH HSCPh JRS SKA Aufstieg und Niedergang der Römischen Welt, Berlin, New York Akademija Nauka i umjetnosti Bosne i Hercegovine Godišnjak Centra za чalkanološka ispitivanja (Académie des Sciences et des Arts de Bosnie-Herzegovine Annuarie Centre d’Études Balkaniques), Sarajevo Centar za чalkanološka ispitivanja (Centre d’Études Balkaniques), Sarajevo Cambridge Ancient History, Cambridge Harvard Studies in Classical Philology, Harvard Journal of Roman Studies, London Srpska Kraljevska Akademija (Royal Serbian Academy of Arts), Belgrade Bibliography Alföldy, G. 1961, Les municipes tibériens et claudiens en Liburnie. 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Cambridge 1998. 158 Table 1 (numbers rounded) 10inhabitants/km2 12 inhabitants/km2 1.1 Adult male population Population in rebelling civitates Adult population of military age (22%) 710,000 156,000 750,000 165,000 1.2 Mobilisation rate Rate of mobilisation 66% Rate of mobilisation 50% 103,000 78,000 109,000 82,500 69,000 - 94,000 9,000 78,000-103,000 73,500-100,000 9,000 82,500-109,000 1.3Finalestimate Foot soldiers Cavalry Soldiers (total) 159