Arctic Security

The Arctic region is rapidly changing from a dormant past into a region of increasing geopolitical significance and competition. As a consequence, concerns about the Arctic's security and peaceful future, especially regarding the ongoing armament sought by some of the Arctic states in the region, has lately grown.

NAADSN Engage Series no. 7 / RDSNAA série d'engage no. 7) Published in print and electronic formats. * * * Rob Huebert began analyzing Arctic issues in the late 1980s. His first major project critically examined the Canadian response to the voyage of the Polar Sea and what this meant for the creation of Canada's Arctic foreign and defence policy. By the 1990s, he observed that the state-centric, military-focused conceptualization of security that dominated during the Cold War had been transformed by a recent focus on environmental concerns and "human security" in the region. 1 By the start of the new millennium, Huebert warned that climate change and geostrategic imperatives were fundamentally transforming the circumpolar world. His articles highlighted the sources of existing and potential conflicts for Canada in the Arctic by focusing on sovereignty and on boundary disputes between Canada and its immediate neighbours. He predicted that as the Arctic became more accessible through the impacts of climate change, the Canadian position regarding the Northwest Passage would come under increasing challenge from international actors. The media took interest in his assertions that an increased volume of foreign shipping would make future sovereignty Resources Committee (CARC), the Canadian Polar Commission, and the Centre for Military and Strategic Studies (CMSS). Huebert outlined his arguments about why Canadian sovereignty was imperilled and how the federal government had to make substantial investments in enforcement and surveillance. In his presentation, Lackenbauer focused on the need to balance military and community interests, suggesting that Northerners' priorities had to be acknowledged on a local level and accommodated in strategic planning. Lackenbauer suggested that while the Canadian Rangers serve as a tangible link between Northerners and the military, they also represent a theoretical bridge between the state-centric, hard security concepts at the core of Huebert's "thinning ice" thesis, and the softer, human-security prescriptions advanced by Franklyn Griffiths through his concept of stewardship. 3 As media interest in the Arctic intensified in the middle of the decade, so did the profile of Huebert's work. The Arctic Council's seminal 2004 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment report revealed stunning ice and snow reductions across the region. Popular concerns about the implications for Canada, and particularly its control over the Northwest Passage, grew apace. Then came the escalation of the dispute between Canada and Denmark over Hans Island. After the Danes sent ships to the island in 2002 and 2003, Canada responded in 2005 with an inukshuk-raising and flag-planting visit by a small group of Canadian Rangers and other land force personnel, followed by a highly Introduction ix publicized visit by the then Minister of National Defence, Bill Graham. The media began alluding to Canada's 1995 "Turbot War" with the Spanish and even to a "domino theory" effect, the suggestion being that if Canada lost Hans Island, its other Arctic islands might succumb to a similar fate. Although Canada and Denmark soon restored the dispute to a diplomatic track, sovereignty issues did not abate. As political scientist Mathieu Landriault has demonstrated in his important work on news media coverage, however, the 2000s proved "une décennie turbulente." 4 The Paul Martin Liberal government's 2005 International Policy Statement revealed growing political will to improve surveillance and control over the Canadian Arctic, and the government was in the final stages of completing a domestic Arctic policy before Canadian voters swept it out of office. Articles in a special issue of the Canadian Military Journal published in winter 2005-2006 reveal our respective approaches at the time. Huebert asked whether we could expect a "Renaissance in Canadian Arctic Security." He noted increasing political interest in the subject, the resumption of joint exercises in the Canadian and Circumpolar Arctics, and the spat with Denmark over Hans Island as indicators that Canada was rediscovering what he perceived to be an imperative to improve its ability to defend the North. 5 By contrast, Lackenbauer's article on "The Canadian Rangers: A Postmodern Militia That Works" applied theoretical traits associated with "postmodern" military formations to frame and explain the success of that specific Canadian organization. "Political scientists have observed that post-Cold War arctic strategies are less state-centric and military-focused, and that debates about the proposed demilitarization of the Arctic region have illuminated the legacies of military activities on northern peoples and ecology," he emphasized. Accordingly, "policy-makers can no longer ignore the human impacts of their decisions on communities and individuals, especially in an era of Aboriginal self-awareness and self-government." He thus situated the Rangers in a comprehensive approach linking Arctic sovereignty and security with broader Northern development issues, economic and political security considerations, as well as Indigenous values. 6 Our respective perspectives took on heightened salience when Stephen Harper made Arctic sovereignty and security a core issue in the late 2005 federal election campaign. After he became prime minister, the Conservative leader made annual trips to the Arctic and committed to invest significantly in improving Canada's security infrastructure. The political importance that he placed on the Arctic generated significant debate about how Canada can best protect and project its national interests in the region. 7 The articles in this book x Huebert and Lackenbauer provide the authors' assessments of how the Conservatives framed Arctic issues and their implementation record over the course of their decade in office. The Canadian International Council (CIC) funded Huebert, Lackenbauer, and Griffiths as research fellows for 2008-2009 to critically examine Arctic issues and to each produce a "white paper" guiding Canadian Arctic policy. The CIC did not provide strict instructions on what they expected the authors to produce, thus allowing each of us to frame our studies as we saw fit. We discussed our findings during national speaking tours organized by the CIC and debated our core ideas in a March 2009 national videoconference. The CIC released our papers in May 2009, just before the Harper government released Canada's Northern Strategy, and Wilfrid Laurier University Press published a book based on our reports two years later that provides a snapshot of where we agreed and disagreed on core issues up to that time. Huebert argued in "Canadian Arctic Sovereignty and Security in a Transforming Circumpolar World" that the countries wielding capabilities to control the Arctic will reap significant benefits. He expected that Canada will need to deal with challenges to its Arctic in the future. He noted that non-Arctic states such as China, Japan, and South Korea were becoming increasingly active in the region. Competing claims vary, relating to issues from resource exploitation and development, to division of the Arctic seabed, to the right of transit through the Northwest Passage. As various actors advance their claims, the potential exists for a serious challenge to Canada's sovereignty and security in its Arctic. Huebert laid out what he saw as the essential steps that the Canadian government must take to assert control over the region, enforce its claims, and cooperate better with its Arctic neighbours to develop an international framework that will serve as a guideline for rules of engagement. By contrast, Lackenbauer argued that Canada should rein in its alarmist rhetoric about alleged sovereignty and security threats. He insisted that there was no "Arctic race" and that solutions to boundary disputes would be negotiated through diplomacy, not won or lost through military posturing. In his assessment, the "use it or lose it" message that underpinned the Harper government's "call to arms" was both erroneous and limiting. To devise a more confident and constructive Arctic strategy, he urged Canada to marry its defence and resource development agenda with stronger diplomatic and social dimensions. This comprehensive 3-D (defence-diplomacy-development) approach sought to embrace opportunities for international cooperation, fixated less on potential "sovereignty loss," and encouraged sustainable socioeconomic development so that Canada could better position itself to seize opportunities and become a world leader in circumpolar affairs. He insisted that Arctic problems could not be resolved by a return to Cold War rhetoric

The construction of the Distant Early Warning (DEW) Line in the mid-1950s represents the most dramatic example of military modernization in the Canadian Arctic. To ensure that a range of federal government stakeholders were informed about and engaged in this megaproject, the DEW Line Co-ordinating Committee was established in February 1955 and ran until 1963. The meeting minutes and the regular progress reports provided to the committee offer valuable insights into the logistical and administrative machinery behind the “great assault” on the Canadian Arctic and its transformative effects on the human population in the region.

Sovereignty begins at home. For six decades, the Canadian Rangers have quietly served as the Canadian Armed Forces’ eyes, ears, and voice in isolated Northern communities. Vigilans tells the story of how 1st Canadian Ranger Patrol Group has evolved into a flexible and culturally-inclusive organization that successfully integrates national defence with community-based stewardship. The Rangers’ red hoodies have become a strong symbol of Canada’s sovereignty and security, representing an enduring partnership rooted in traditional knowledge, local skills, and cross-cultural understanding.

The report identifies three normative requirements for governance in the Arctic, peace, freedom and self-determination, and sustainable development. These requirements are challenged by recent developments, and thus the need for regulative policies arises. The challenges are briefly sketched in regard to the issue areas of sovereign control, security, shipping, living resources and biodiversity, pollutants and climate change, resource extraction and living conditions of indigenous peoples. After briefly accounting for the status of the Arctic governance architecture as fragmented multi-level system, the report explores six future scenarios for governance: Back to Cold War, nationalization of the Arctic sea-space, an Arctic Treaty System, a regional seas governance mechanism, a regional organization and integrated multi-level governance. The report argues that the last option is the most feasible and also desirable.

In this study, the project team systematically analyzed publicly-available reports, media coverage, and academic commentary on the Canadian Rangers as well as broader Government of Canada and CAF Arctic priorities. It also drew significant insights from focus group conversations and community-based interviews with a diverse group of Rangers from across 1 CRPG. In general, our research confirms that metrics of Canadian Ranger success must measure not only the organization’s contributions to DND/CAF priorities but also contributions to collective and individual resilience that benefit communities, help to meet broader government objectives (at federal, territorial, hamlet, and Indigenous government levels), and promote Crown-Indigenous reconciliation. Applying various concepts of resilience to frame the Rangers’ myriad contributions, we propose metrics and indicators of success that embrace the Canadian Rangers’ distinct forms and terms of CAF service as relevant members of the Defence Team with extensive experience operating in austere conditions who are willing to share their local and traditional knowledge about lands and waters, whilst providing practical support for activities in what many Southern Canadians consider to be “extreme environments.” As members of their local communities, the Rangers also provide a robust and immediate response to the broad spectrum of security and safety issues facing isolated communities.

The report blends descriptive, explanatory narrative (with extensive first-hand quotes providing the insights of Canadian Rangers in their own words) with specific, measurable outcomes. The concluding chapter provides suggestions for proposed next steps.

KEY MESSAGES

• Key issues related to Canada’s security and defence agenda, which involve critical and essential infrastructure development, must be considered in the development and implementation of a Canadian Northern Corridor (CNC).

• Canada’s northern and Arctic security and defence agenda is related to several key policy domains that are relevant from a CNC perspective. These include infrastructure development, climate change, Indigenous sovereignty and natural resource development.

• A CNC will gain international attention and be internationally recognized as a strategy for Canada to assert its sovereignty over its Arctic territory, including the internationally disputed Northwest Passage.

• The CNC advocates for the inclusion and participation of Indigenous
communities. Thus, Indigenous Peoples will also carry a significant role in the monitoring and surveillance of accessibility within and to the North, improved through enhanced infrastructure development.

• Canada’s investments in Arctic defence infrastructure are modest compared to those of its Russian and American neighbours. A CNC, potentially adding strategically important infrastructure in the Canadian North, will directly tie into the discourse of Arctic security and power relations.

• In addition to natural disasters, the Canadian North is at significant risk of human-made disasters that pose serious prospective challenges for northerners and for federal and territorial governments. The CNC will likely foster the development of surveillance and monitoring assets.

• The CNC rights-of-way could trigger security concerns regarding the impact of foreign investment as a security threat, especially if natural resource development is coupled with the development of strategic transportation hubs, such as ports along the coast of the Arctic Ocean.

• CNC transportation infrastructure would also become a part of Canada’
defence strategy as it forms a potential key asset in the defence and
safeguarding of Canada’s northern and Arctic regions.

• Future research should identify the role of dual-use infrastructure (infrastructure that satisfies both military and civilian purposes) in the CNC context and also examine to what extent security and defence stakeholders should be involved in the CNC’s planning and implementation.

Almost daily there are reports of the impact of climate change on Arctic sea ice, and thus the geostrategic implications of greater freedom of navigation. In a very real sense the region has become the new frontier for global competition. The European Union's latest policy pronouncements on the area in October (see Data Source 1 at the footnote for source)-supporting a Resolution by the European Parliament in September (Data Source 2) are considered from a security and defence point of view, and the case is advanced f.or its agency Frontex to be given the task of implementation

54 0 (57) -014 В статье изучены новейшие тенденции в военной стратегии США на Крайнем Севере и их последствия для национальной безопасности Российской Федерации. В частности, дан критический анализ концептуально-доктринальной базы США в области их военной политики в регионе, выяснено, насколько серьезным является нынешний крен арктической стратегии Вашингтона в сторону военно-силовых методов и инструментов. Изучено влияние нынешнего курса США на позиции РФ в регионе, а также на развитие Арктической зоны России. Ключевые слова: Арктика, военная стратегия США, национальная безопасность России

The Arctic Coast Guard Forum was officially established on Friday, at the US Coast Guard Academy in Connecticut. Some have argued it can serve as an arena to tackle security dialogue with Russia, at a time when other channels have been disbanded. Yet, there are certain constraints with regards to coast guards and their roles and mandates in the Arctic. In turn, what will this Forum aspire to accomplish?

This article studies the role of Svalbard in the Arctic security agenda, the history of the implementation of the Paris Treaty 1920 with the emphasis on its security provisions, as well as the risks of engaging Svalbard in a military conflict in the region. Despite the demilitarized status of Svalbard, the evaluation of its role in hard security situation in the Arctic is hampered by a number of factors. First, Norway sticks to a narrow interpretation of the 1920 Treaty provision that bans any use of the archipelago for warlike purposes. Norway does not consider a violation of the Treaty such actions as entry of military ships in the Svalbard's ports, overfly of military aircrafts and some other, contradicting with the Russian position. Second, development of technologies, particularly of "dual" use, has posed the question whether the use by the militaries of some objects situated on Svalbard –primarily the stations of space monitoring – is legitimate. Third, as the political uncertainty in the Arctic rises, Svalbard has been more often involved in the worse-case scenarios for the region – as a place vitally important for Russia and simultaneously representing potential vulnerability for NATO. At the same time, the author argues that the threat of a military conflict over Svalbard is minimal. The international Svalbard agenda is dominated by economic issues, whereas the stakeholders stay aware of the significant risks in case of a military conflict on Svalbard.

This collection documents the role of Canadian Air Force and Royal Canadian Air Force in the opening of the Arctic during the interwar period, reproducing the landmark reports by Major Robert A. Logan (1922) and Flight Lieutenant Thomas A. Lawrence (1928).

Санкт-Петербургский государственный университет, Санкт-Петербург, Россия Аннотация. В статье изучается феномен гибридной войны применительно к арктической политике. Основная цель исследования состоит в том, чтобы показать, насколько состоятельна эта концепция, кого западные эксперты считают главным источником гибридных угроз и что они включают в ги-бридные угрозы в Арктике. Эмпирическую базу исследования составили документы международных организаций и публикации западных авторов. На основе критического анализа документов и публи-каций показано, что понятие гибридной войны ввели в научный оборот военные, но оно использует-ся и в более широком смысле. Военные эксперты пока не выработали чёткого определения гибрид-ной войны. Представители политических наук используют понятие гибридной войны в ещё более аморфном значении, что приводит к неограниченному расширению понятия. На конкретных приме-рах показано, что под понятие гибридных угроз потенциально попадают любые проявления полити-ки России, что располагает к созданию политической мифологии, прикрывающей политические цели западных оппонентов. В западных публикациях нет единства в отношении продуктивности концеп-ций гибридных угроз и гибридных войн, но более распространена радикальная точка зрения, кото-рая сводится к навязыванию конфронтационных отношений в Арктике и в международной политике в целом. Ключевые слова: Арктика, безопасность, гибридные войны, гибридные угрозы, Россия, сдержива-ние. Abstract. The article examines the phenomenon of hybrid war in relation to Arctic politics. The goal of the study is to show how valid this concept is, who Western experts consider the main source of hybrid threats, and what they consider hybrid threats in the Arctic. The empirical grounds of the study are documents of international organizations and publications of Western authors. A critical analysis of documents and publications shows the concept of hybrid war was introduced into scientific circulation by the military, but it is also used in a broader meaning. Military experts have not yet come up with a clear definition of hybrid war. Representatives of political science use the concept of hybrid war in an even more amorphous meaning, which leads to its unlimited expansion. Based on specific examples, it is shown that any manifestations of Russian politics potentially fall under the concept of hybrid threats, which is conducive to the creation of political mythology that covers up the political goals of Western opponents. There is no consensus in Western publications regarding the productivity of the concepts of hybrid threats and hybrid wars, but a more common radical point of view, which limits down to the imposition of confrontational relations in the Arctic and in international politics in general.

С точки зрения географии, Канада и Россия – два гиганта, занимающие львиную долю территорий Арктики. Неудивительно, что обе страны сосредоточили своё внимание на арктическом регионе. Арктика является важной частью канадской и российской идентичности. Казалось, что после окончания холодной войны для Канады и России наступил этап развития дружеских отношений. Однако сдержанность обеих стран в готовности принять точку зрения другой стороны, а также отсутствие необходимых сведений об арктических стратегиях противоположной стороны, способствуют росту недоверия и ведёт к конфронтации. Насколько различаются арктические курсы двух стран? Смогут ли достигнутые в прошлом успехи в совместном решении арктических вопросов спасти отношения России и Запада от глубокого кризиса? Или эпоха борьбы за глобальное лидерство неизбежно приведёт к новому конфликту в Арктике?

Авторы: Трой Буффард, Вячеслав Гаврилов, П. Уитни Лакенбауэр, Сюзанн Лалонд, Александр Сергунин, Джим Фергюссон, Роб Хьюберт и Андреа Шаррон

On Thin Ice explores the relationship between the Inuit and the modern state in the vast but lightly populated North American Arctic. It chronicles the aspiration of the Inuit to participate in the formation and implementation of diplomatic and national security policies across the Arctic region and to contribute to the reconceptualization of Arctic Security, including the redefinition of the core values inherent in northern defense policy. With the warming of the Earth's climate, the Arctic rim states have paid increasing attention to the commercial opportunities, strategic challenges, and environmental risks of climate change. As the long isolation of the Arctic comes to an end, the Inuit who are indigenous to the region are showing tremendous diplomatic and political skills as they continue to work with the more populous states that assert sovereign control over the Arctic in an effort to mutually assert joint sovereignty across the region Published on the 50th anniversary of Ken Waltz's classic Man, the State and War, Zellen's On Thin Ice is at once a tribute to Waltz's elucidation of the three levels of analysis as well as an enhancement of his famous 'Three Images,' with the addition of a new 'Fourth Image' to describe a tribal level of analysis. This model remains salient in not only the Arctic where modern state sovereignty remains limited, but in many other conflict zones where tribal peoples retain many attributes of their indigenous sovereignty.

Ongoing political, legal, environmental and economic changes open up the Arctic. This has implications for regional security. The article tackles the question whether the preeminent regional institution, the Arctic Council, should include security-related topics in its portfolio to deal with the emerging challenges. The article argues that the regional security issues will be taken care of better in other institutions for at least two reasons: dealing with security-related topics might negatively impact the Arctic Council's institutional practice, while at the same time the Arctic Council might not provide the best institutional background needed to cope with the most pertinent issues on the security agenda.

Le réchauffement climatique a des répercussions considérables sur l’environnement arctique, dont l’une est de rendre cette région beaucoup plus accessible au commun des mortels. Les nouvelles dynamiques géopolitiques laissent-elles entrevoir une ruée vers les ressources conflictuelle ? Au contraire, l’Arctique deviendra-t-il un territoire gouverné par l’intérêt commun et le droit international ?
Les auteurs, spécialistes reconnus des affaires arctiques, abordent ces questions fondamentales et la façon dont le Canada pourrait élaborer une stratégie pour le Nord à la fois efficace et responsable. Ce faisant, ils proposent un examen approfondi de la réalité politique et stratégique nationale et internationale qui se joue dans le continent glacé.

Status quo in the Arctic international relations

Arctic; status quo; Arctic Five; structural realism; Waltz

Climate change observed in the Arctic transforms its geopolitics. It means easier mineral resources exploitation and opening of the new shipping routes. These factors combined result in increasing competition for power there, territorial claims over Arctic Ocean parts for example. Author claims that relatively small presence of Kenneth N. Waltz’s structural realism is an untapped potential as a theoretical framework within the Arctic international relations research. It seems as an useful tool for its description and explanation. The aim of the article is therefore the operationalization of a given theory into the object of research.

Author analyses the Arctic international relations especially from the realistic perspective through the balance of power principle and its status quo concept. He describes geopolitical potential of the region, Arctic States rivalry, conflict capability and intensification of the international relations manifested in the idea of cooperation within so–called Arctic Five. Author explains, why the status quo is observed in this research area, following the rules of structural realism, despite the changes occurring in the Arctic, what constitutes its hypothesis.