Logit Model

The Japanese public long-term care insurance for the elderly is unequivocally a problem both for the health care system and as a social issue. The issues for the socially hospitalized and institutionalized are still unsolved due to a lack of family and community support. A central feature is to investigate the behavioral choices among elderly formal/informal home care and nursing home care. This study uses the General Survey on Actual Living Conditions of Elderly People as a natural experiment to analyze behavioral decision-making between the nursing home care and community-based formal/informal home care among the elderly. A logit model analysis that controls for socio-economic, demographic and physical/mental health influential factors was conducted. Developing community-based formal/informal home care would lead to economic gains. A provision of compensation to family health caregivers for their informal home care for the elderly is a key factor and a viable option.

This paper suggests estimators of the frequencies (N. or proportions of Ndistinguishable objects contained in categories , given various types of information. We consider information in the form of exact constraints on the N., sample frequencies , and frequencies of related data. The analysis uses Bayesian methods, where the prior distribution is assumed to be a function of the crossentropy between the N. and a reference distribution. We show the relationship between our estimator and the log-linear and logit models and also present a sampling experiment to compare our proposed estimator with the iterated proportional fit ting estimator. ,.

A random-coefficient flexible parametric specification which nests probit and iogit models is introduced. These models are estimated, using a data set analyzed by Horowitz (Journal of Econometrics, 1993, 58, 49-70), and compared with results obtained from the Klein-Spady semi-parametric and smoothed maximum score estimators.

Using daily fed cattle purchase transaction records collected by the Packers and Stockyards Programs over the period April 1992 to April 1993, we identify characteristics associated with the choices of fed cattle procurement and pricing methods. The methodology involves the use of a multinomial logit model. Regional concentration; processing capacity; number of head per lot; average weight per head; cattle

The paper attempts to identify factors that influence modal split for journeys to work in cities with populations of between 100 thousand and 500 thousand in Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland and the UK. The sample consisted of 34 cities. The analysis revealed a significant negative correlation between modal shares of motorised modes and public transport. A negative correlation between motorised modes and non-motorised modes, albeit to a lesser degree, was also found. Public transport-and non-motorised mode share, however, were not correlated.

This study presents the significance of the currency crises, discusses the related literature and applies a model of economic vulnerability to Turkey during 1985Q2-2004Q2. The common approach in currency crisis literature is to focus on the performance of ...

There is a new growing interest in the development and the use of integrated land use and transport planning models in France. In this paper, we describe the steps of a current project which aims to integrate UrbanSim, a flexible land use model, and METROPOLIS, a dynamic traffic model, and to apply this integrated model to Paris region. We shortly present the two models and the common architecture, then we describe the fastidious but crucial step of collecting input data and calibration data for the study area. Paris region is one of the most important metropolises in the world : 12 000 km2, 11 millions inhabitants and 5 millions jobs.

Support vector machines (SVMs) are promising methods for the prediction of online auto insurance customer churning because SVMs use a risk minimization principal that consists of the empirical error and the regularized term predicting the switching probability of an insured to other auto insurance company. In addition, this study examines the feasibility of applying SVM in online insurance customer churning by comparing it with other methods such as artificial neural network (ANN) and logit model. This study proves that SVM provides a promising alternative to predict customer churning in auto-insurance service.

Support vector machines (SVMs) are promising methods for the prediction of online auto insurance customer churning because SVMs use a risk minimization principal that consists of the empirical error and the regularized term predicting the switching probability of an insured to other auto insurance company. In addition, this study examines the feasibility of applying SVM in online insurance customer churning by comparing it with other methods such as artificial neural network (ANN) and logit model. This study proves that SVM provides a promising alternative to predict customer churning in auto-insurance service.

There is a strong competition from low-priced imported catfish fillets resulting in a declining market share for domestic farm-raised catfish fillets. To match the competition, catfish processors are embarking on pricing policy measures that are volume-oriented instead of profit- or image-oriented. This could be an effective short-run pricing policy measure for optimal long-run sustainability and profitability of the industry. Volume pricing strategies are aimed at meeting target sales volumes or market shares. This paper explores and compares the performance of the standard logit, the inverse power transformation (IPT) logit and the logarithmic version of the inverse power transformation logit models in terms of generating forecasts for market share of U.S. farm-raised catfish fillets. The results suggest a better performance of the log-IPT in every aspect compared to the linear standard logit and the IPT logit models.

The study examines a digital soil mapping approach for the production of soil maps by using multinomial logistic regression on soil and terrain information at pilot sites in the Northwestern Coastal region of Egypt. The aim is to reproduce the original map and predict soil distribution in the adherent landscape. Reference soil maps produced by conventional methods at Omayed and Nagamish areas were used. Spectral and terrain parameters were calculated and logit models of the soil classes were developed. Predicted soil classes' maps were produced. Software's IDRISI/SAGA/SATISTCA/SPSS were used. The terrain and spectral parameters were found to be significantly influential and the selection of the land surfaces predictors was satisfactory. The McFadden pseudo R-squares ranged from 0.473 to 0.496. The most significant terrain parameters influencing the spatial distribution of the soil classes were elevation, valley depth, multiresolution ridgetop flatness index, multiresolution valley-bottom flatness index, and SAGA wetness index. However, the most influential spectral parameters are the first two principal components of the six Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper bands. The overall accuracy of the predicted soil maps ranged from 72% to 74% with a Kappa Index ranging from 0.62 to 0.64. The developed probability models were successfully used to predict the spatial distribution of the soil mapping units at pixel resolutions of 28.5 m · 28.5 m and 90 m · 90 m at adjacent unvisited areas at Matrouh and Alamin. The developed methodology could contribute to the allocation and to the soil digital mapping and management of new expansion sites in remote desert areas of Egypt.

This study presents the significance of the currency crises, discusses the related literature and applies a model of economic vulnerability to Turkey during 1985Q2-2004Q2. The common approach in currency crisis literature is to focus on the performance of thresholds for a set of early warning indicators. Following the explanation of "Index of Speculative Pressure" (ISP), Granger causes of the ISP is discussed. The study shows that, current account/ GDP ratio, M2/international reserves ratio, real credit growth and current account/foreign direct investment ratio are Granger causes of the ISP at 1 % level. Then by using Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model, the ISP index is forecasted. The study shows that the combination of VAR(1)+VAR(2)+VAR(5) models generate relatively better forecast values than all other single models. Finally the study estimates dynamic probit and logit models by using maximum likelihood to predict currency crises. It shows that logit model gives a better performance than the probit, for a better prediction of the probabilities of the Turkish currency crises. The most important contribution of this study is to show that the logit model has a very high performance in the prediction of Turkish currency crises. It can be used to foresee forthcoming currency crises. Also the forecast of the ISP (as a level) is giving very successful results. It is observed that the ISP and forecasted ISP values are almost moving together or very close to each other. JEL Classification: C25, E44, F3, F47.

The paired combinatorial logit (PCL) model is one of the extended logit models recently developed from the generalized extreme value theory to handle the drawbacks of the multinomial logit (MNL) model. The PCL model is considered suitable for adaptation to the route choice problem to resolve the independence from irrelevant alternatives property inherited in the MNL model while keeping the analytical tractability of the logit choice probability function. In this paper, we adapt the PCL model to handle the two drawbacks of MNL in a route choice context: (1) inability to account for overlapping (or correlation) among routes, and (2) inability to account for perception variance with respect to trips of different lengths. Specifically, the effects of congestion, scaling, and overlapping on the PCL choice probabilities are examined using a set of carefully designed experiments and graphical illustrations. The experimental designs and graphical illustrations allow for intuitive explanation and comparison of the different effects on the calculation of the route choice probabilities.

This article investigates home attributes that attract residential burglars in choosing a target. These attributes are the location of the home, its physical appearance, demographic characteristics of the residents, and the security precautions present. The theoretical foundation of the empirical model is the criminal utility maximization behavior that considers costs and benefits as formulated by Becker. However, this article introduces to the model the spatial dimension of the burglar's search for a target. The incidence of burglary is the dependent variable and is measured in a dichotomy scale. The empirical analysis utilizes a survey database of burgled and non-burgled homes that was conducted by the researchers. A logit model is used for the investigation, and the effects of the explanatory variables are calculated as probabilities. The database is unique in the wealth of attributes of individual homes that are relevant to burglars' decision process.

We address the proper specification of the logit model for estimation of nonmarket commodity demand. Economic theory is used to show the conditions which must be met by the logit functional form if it is to yield valid estimates of welfare change measures and demand relationships. An empirical example is used to illustrate the argument. Recreational boating data were collected using the contingent valuation method (CVM) in Texas. In one instance the demand curve is positively sloped due to the specific functional form chosen. The estimated demand curve for the theoretically preferred functional form has the expected negative slope. 0 1986 Academic Press. Inc.

Introduction As concerns grow that a thinning labor force due to retirement will lead to worker shortages, it becomes critical to support positive employment outcomes of groups who have been underutilized, specifically older workers and workers with disabilities. Better understanding perceived age and disability discrimination and their intersection can help rehabilitation specialists and employers address challenges expected as a result of the evolving workforce. Methods Using U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission Integrated Mission System data, we investigate the nature of employment discrimination charges that cite the Americans with Disabilities Act or Age Discrimination in Employment Act individually or jointly. We focus on trends in joint filings over time and across categories of age, types of disabilities, and alleged discriminatory behavior. Results We find that employment discrimination claims that originate from older or disabled workers are concentrated within a subset of issues that include reasonable accommodation, retaliation, and termination. Age-related disabilities are more frequently referenced in joint cases than in the overall pool of ADA filings, while the psychiatric disorders are less often referenced in joint cases. When examining charges made by those protected under both the ADA and ADEA, results from a logit model indicate that in comparison to charges filed under the ADA alone, jointly-filed ADA/

This article examines the relative importance of various consumer attributes on beverage consumption decisions in Japan. A logit model is used to identify significant demographic, socioeconomic, and lifestyle characteristics affecting the consumption of nine beverages. The logit model is applied to data from a major consumer survey conducted in 1996 by the National Milk Promotion Association (NMPA) of Japan. The results indicate that many of the consumer attributes have a statistically significant association with the decision to consume the various beverages.

The paper studies the factors associated with the emergence of systemic banking crises in a sample of developed and developing countries in 1981-94 using a multivariate logit econometric model. The results show that a weak macroeconomic environment with low growth and high inflation makes crises more likely; high real interest rates have also contributed to banking sector fragility, and so does vulnerability to balance-of-payments crises. Countries with an explicit deposit insurance scheme were also particularly at risk, and so were countries with weak law enforcement.

We study the extent to which crashes in emerging market currencies are predictable using simple logit models based on lagged macroeconomic and financial data. To evaluate our model, we calculate trading strategies in which an investor goes long or short in the currency ...

Individual choice behavior usually involves a complex decision-making process, and is often contextdependent reflecting the influence of choice environment and the fact that the individual has limited information processing ability and varying levels of interest in alternatives. However, the existing models in transportation have not represented these behavioral mechanisms satisfactorily, although to avoid the Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives (IIA) property of the widely used multinomial logit (MNL) model, a variety of non-IIA models have been suggested in the literature. This paper will propose another random utility choice model by introducing the concepts of relative utility and relative interest. A revised MNL model and a revised Nested-MNL model will be developed. Both of these models do not have the IIA property. The performance of these new models will be assessed using conjoint-based activity diary data about the choice of destination and stop pattern.

The impact that large trucks have on accident severity has long been a concern in the accident analysis literature. One important measure of accident severity is the most severely injured occupant in the vehicle. Such data are routinely collected in state accident data files in the U.S. Among the many risk factors that determine the most severe level of injury sustained by vehicle occupants, the number of occupants in the vehicle is an important factor. These effects can be significant because vehicles with higher occupancies have an increased likelihood of having someone seriously injured. This paper studies the occupancy/injury severity relationship using Washington State accident data. The effects of large trucks, which are shown to have a significant impact on the most severely injured vehicle occupant, are accounted for by separately estimating nested logit models for truck-involved accidents and for non-truck-involved accidents. The estimation results uncover important relationships between various risk factors and occupant injury. In addition, by comparing the accident characteristics between truck-involved accidents and non-truck-involved accidents, the risk factors unique to large trucks are identified along with the relative importance of such factors. The findings of this study demonstrate that nested logit modeling, which is able to take into account vehicle occupancy effects and identify a broad range of factors that influence occupant injury, is a promising methodological approach. : S 0 0 0 1 -4 5 7 5 ( 9 9 ) 0 0 0 1 4 -7

This study integrated remote sensing, household survey data, and spatial modeling to assess drivers of deforestation within the Community Baboon Sanctuary (CBS), Belize, an IUCN category IV protected area for the black howler monkey (Alouatta pigra) established in 1985. We contrasted land-cover trends within the CBS, as well as a 120 m river buffer running within and outside the CBS (the focus of conservation). Additionally, we assessed the relative influence of selected household economic activity and demographic data, participation in two conservation initiatives, locational context, and land tenure on the probability of deforestation using binomial logit models. Social survey and land-cover change data was incorporated from 33 smallholder parcels from the years 2000-2004. Deforestation rates within the CBS totaled 30% between 1989 and 2004, following similar trends in Belize. Riparian areas were more likely to be deforested, as were areas closer to roads. Although cattle correlated with the leading driver of deforestation in the model, land tenure was not influential, despite its importance within the literature. Although involvement with conservation initiatives is correlated with decreased deforestation, other drivers are more influential, stressing the influence of other competing factors on forest preservation that must be considered with conservation development.

This paper investigates various factors influencing individual's choice of residence location and the role of the commute trip on that decision. It tries to identify how residential decisions are influenced by socio-economics variables and neighborhood characteristics with emphasis on behavioral differences between the genders. The analysis is based on the Israel Census data for the Tel Aviv metropolitan area and uses both descriptive statistics and estimation of a logit choice model. The results show the important of both the area characteristics and the commute distance in choosing residential location and significant differences between men and women. The importance of commute distance in residential location choice decreases with increase in one's level of income, level of education, and number of car in one's household. The results are consistent with existing research literature with new emphasis on the effect of income.

This study investigated whether two artificial neural networks (ANNs), multilayer perceptron (MLP) and hybrid networks using statistical and ANN approaches, can outperform traditional statistical models for predicting corporate failures in Australia one year and two years prior to the financial distress. The results suggest that hybrid neural networks outperform all other models one and two years before failure. Therefore, hybrid neural network model is a very promising tool for failure prediction. This supports the conclusion that for shareholders, policymakers and others interested in early warning systems, hybrid networks would be useful.

The purpose of this study was to assess the risk of injuries to miners, accounting for their individual and workplace characteristics. The binary and multinomial logit models were applied to measure the risk of injuries to miners working in a group of underground coal ...

Few studies utilize large national data sets to provide statistical estimates of the degree of disproportionate representation of African-American children placed in CPS foster care. The current study examined the association of African-American racial identity with foster care placement while controlling for child, caregiver, household and abuse characteristics. We conducted secondary analyses of the 2005 National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System (NCANDS) on investigated reports of child abuse and neglect that received a maltreatment disposition in the reporting year, 2005. NCANDS 2005 Child File reflects case-level data based on the submissions of 48 states and the District of Columbia resulting in 3,461,872 investigations. Our unweighted study sample was restricted to 71,802 investigations of primary substantiated maltreatment in the reporting year 2005. A logit model was used to examine the association between foster care placement and racial identity. After controlling for child, caregiver, household and abuse characteristics African-American children had 44% higher odds of foster care placement when compared with Caucasian children. This study supports the cumulative evidence that African-American racial identity is a significant predictor of foster care services. Continued examination of the factors associated with foster placement is warranted to unravel the complex circumstances facing this vulnerable segment of children.

This study investigates the preference to telecommute from home and from a center. While home-based telecommuting is fairly commonplace, center-based telecommuting is a relatively recent form that involves traveling to work at an office near home and remote from the regular workplace. The research presented here constitutes one of the first efforts to model the preference for center-based telecommuting. Survey data were collected from center-based telecommuters, home-based telecommuters, and non-telecommuters, as part of a telecommuting center demonstration project in California. Using attitudinal factor scores, as well as travel and sociodemographic variables, the preferences to work from the telecommuting center and to work from home were modeled. Logit models for center preference, home preference, and center versus home preference were estimated. The most frequently significant characteristics were personal benefits at the center, work ethic at home, and age of the respondent. Speculation on the future of the center-based form of telecommuting suggests slow growth for the near term, but potential long-term viability in connection with alternative uses of telecenter facilities and with the trend toward non-territorial office arrangements.

We address the proper specification of the logit model for estimation of nonmarket commodity demand. Economic theory is used to show the conditions which must be met by the logit functional form if it is to yield valid estimates of welfare change measures and demand relationships. An empirical example is used to illustrate the argument. Recreational boating data were collected using the contingent valuation method (CVM) in Texas. In one instance the demand curve is positively sloped due to the specific functional form chosen. The estimated demand curve for the theoretically preferred functional form has the expected negative slope.

The Modal split in transportation planning represents an estimate of the possible volume of travel in a particular mode, i.e. the share of certain transport modes in total travel demands. A survey was conducted in Vijaynagar Bengaluru for 0.15% of population. Data was collected through questioner in household & roadside (metro and bus-stand) interview survey and by using the logit-model, probability of usage of private (bike, car, cab auto) and public (metro bus) transport was determined. It was observed that in the study area probability of private users is more than that of public. To improve the use of public transport usage recommendations are made to provide a feeder service is recommended which connects main road and sub main road and bus stops were provided for 1 km interval so that the people will shift from private to public transport. Survey was conducted on shifting the mode choice from private to public transport. It was found that half of the people from RPC layout are ready to shift from private to public transport if better connectivity is provided. From the survey it is observed that among the present private transport users nearly 12% of them are willing to shift to the public transport mode if proper connectivity is provided by the public transport, which intern may reduce the traffic congestion in the study area to some extent.

This study reports the results of air-travel itinerary share models estimated at the city-pair level for all city-pairs in the United States. These models, named Itinerary Share Prediction (ISP) models, predict airline ridership at the itinerary level and aid carriers in long and intermediate term decision-making. The models are estimated using aggregate multinomial logit methodology and use official and comprehensive schedule and bookings data. Independent variables for the models measure various itinerary service characteristics: itinerary level-of-service (nonstop, direct, single-connect, or double-connect) with respect to the best level-of-service offered in the city-pair, connection quality variables, carrier, carrier market presence, fares, aircraft size and type variables, and time of day among others. The results are intuitive and consistent across all regions, and the models outperform existing methods. Finally, the impacts of changing various itinerary service attributes on carrier market share are discussed.

The organic agriculture represents a promising alternative for the future of European agriculture. It is consistent with the notion of sustainable development set forth already in the 1992 CAP Reform. Despite of increasing importance of organic farming, the research on organic farming is still limited. This scarcity of the research is especially true for New Member States of the enlarged EU. This paper investigates the choice between conventional and organic production technologies for individual farmers in Hungarian agriculture. We apply a model that explicitly accounts for the effects of farm-specific variables like age and education on the expectations farmers have on the utility of both production technologies. In addition we take into account the perceptions of farmers about the organic farming. The model was estimated on a cross-section data set of Hungarian farmers for the period 2007 using a logit specification. It appears that education has a positive impact on the choice between conventional and organic farming, and, the size of the farm in hectares has a negative effect on this choice. Age and some general considerations on environmental friendly technologies do not have a significant effect on choice between conventional and organic farming.

In recent years tourism has become one of the fastest growing sectors of the world economy and is widely recognised for its contribution to regional and national economic development.The main aim of the paper is to propose a methodological framework within which the impact of characteristics of a tourism product on foreign travel can be captured and analysed. This is achieved by combining the Lancasterian product characteristics approach with the Koppelman's consumer transportation model. Within the proposed model the characteristics of the tourism product/destination including quality of service, advertising and political instability are combined to generate a perception/feeling regarding the tourism destination in the mind of the tourists. In order to measure these perceptions/feelings and, hence, develop a preference ordering, the model is estimated by utilising a conditional Logit analysis. The analysis is based on primary data collected from tourists visiting Cyprus. The conditional Logit model generates the probability of revisit given the characteristics of tourists and the Cyprus tourism product. The paper extends further the Lancaster product characteristics framework as applied to tourism by Rugg (Rev. Econom. Stat. 55(1) (1973) 64), Morley (Ann. Tourism Res. 19 (1992) 250) and Papatheodorou (Ann. Tourism Res. 28 (2001) 164) by including the neglected but from any viewpoint important political instability characteristic that is attached to the tourist product of Cyprus. The inclusion of product characteristics/attributes in tourism analysis appear to strongly contribute towards the better understanding of travel choice behaviour.

The paper introduces a model for forecasting match results for the top tier of men's professional tennis, the ATP tour. Employing a Bradley-Terry type model, and utilising the data available on players' past results and the surface of the contest, we predict match winners for the coming week's matches, having updated the model parameters to take the previous week's results into account. We compare the model to two logit models: one using official rankings and another using the official ranking points of the two competing players. Our model provides superior forecasts according to each of five criteria measuring the predictive performance, two of which relate to betting returns.

This paper traces the developments ,of credit risk modeling ,in recent ,10 years. Our work is divided into two parts: selecting articles and summarizing,results. On the one hand, by building an ordered logit model on historical Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes of articles on credit risk modeling, we select articles highly related to our topic. It is shown,that

This paper uses a conditional logit model to analyze empirically how individuals sort themselves through marriage into households in India and the U.S. The results support positive assortative mating of spouses with respect to age and schooling. We find no evidence in favor of Becker's theory of labor market specialization in couples. Moreover, while similarity in age is the strongest predictor of marital choice in India, education of a prospective spouse plays a more important role in the U.S. Finally, we find that while dowry increases the likelihood of women marrying men with characteristics dissimilar to their own, availability of a mate has a positive effect on the degree of stratification in India.

The goal of this study is to examine the factors which influence the consumers' attraction to shopping malls, and attempt to predict the consumers' behavior in choosing a shopping mall for their retail needs.The gravitational approaches and linear regression models, which are commonly used in this research area, cannot sufficiently explain the impact of factors on the choice of shopping centers; therefore, a review of these approaches and an empirical application of them is considered. The purpose is to construct a model of consumer attraction to malls, through distance and retail image, using a Conditional Logit Model.

Recent experimental research finds men alter their rate of time preference and even their willingness to accept unfair offers in the ultimatum game, after viewing mere pictures of attractive or "sexy" women (Wilson and Daly, 2004;. In this paper I try to identify the demographic characteristics of individuals who expose themselves to similar treatments while engaged in economic interaction in the real-world. I do this by focusing on individuals who attend clubs that feature nude or semi-nude dancers.

The objective of this article is to identify the determinants of the adoption of new irrigation technologies in Moroccan agriculture. The research is carried out on a sample of 82 farmers from the Souss-Massa region (Morocco). The results from the estimation of a binary logit model show that the variables: Age, level of education, non-farm income, perceived utility, possession of a computer, farm size, access to credit, ease of use, influence the probability of adoption of new irrigation technologies among farmers. The theoretical and managerial implications of this research are discussed.

The development of the enrollment forecast was done using three models: the logit model (for demographic profile), the percentage, base and rate concepts (for price), and Markov analysis (for quality and convenience). The variables and the relationships among them were analyzed using the models. Enrollment forecast, based from the mathematical models, revealed that males are less likely to attend school by 23% than females. As they grow older the likelihood of attending school also decreases by 57.5%. With regards to age, results of the study shows that for every one year increase in the age, the likelihood of attending school decreases by 27.5%, and it even decreases further by 57 percent as they grow older. In terms of per capita income and remittance, as their values increases the probability/likelihood to pay tuition fee higher than the suggested tuition fee of the region (P29,579.00) increases.