- A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll shows Harris leading Trump by 3 points in the state.
- It's a significant shift in a conservative-leaning state that Trump won by eight points in 2020.
- Experts say it could bode well for Harris as Iowa's demographics translate to nearby swing states.
A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll published on Saturday showed Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of former President Donald Trump by three points in Iowa, a massive development in a state once seen as a lock for the former president.
The Iowa poll — which is viewed as the gold standard of polling in the state and was conducted by the firm Selzer & Co. — showed Harris ahead of Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters.
Political experts told Business Insider that the Iowa poll is significant for the Harris campaign given that the demographic makeup of Iowa — rural, older, and largely white voters — is similar to some key swing states.
"What makes Iowa a good conduit for states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, is because they're demographically very similar," John Conway, director of strategy for Republicans Voters Against Trump, said. He said all those states have a large share of white voters.
Christian Grose, a professor of political science at the University of Southern California, also said the results bode well for Harris in other states.
"This is probably good news for Harris in Wisconsin, Michigan, and elsewhere. If Harris is competitive in Iowa, combined with recent polling showing Trump with single-digit leads in Kansas and other red places, it bodes well for Harris."
He added: "It's one poll, so normally, I wouldn't read too much into one poll, but this is a pollster who's pretty good and has been working in Iowa for a long time."
The pollster — J. Ann Selzer — has had particular success predicting the Iowa caucuses, he added.
Selzer founded Selzer & Co. in 1996. She conducts polling for private companies and public opinion surveys but Iowa politics remains her greatest strength, FiveThirtyEight reported in 2016.
A representative for Selzer & Co. did not respond to a request for comment.
Patricia Crouse, adjunct professor of political science at the University of New Haven, said the Iowa poll is just one data point that shouldn't be used to predict the actual outcome, but that it's still a significant development for Harris considering Trump won the Hawkeye State in 2020 by eight points over now-President Joe Biden.
"I think we have to be very, very careful about how we're using polls in terms of predicting the outcome of this election, but I do think that even if it's just a moment in time — this poll that was just done — I still think it's significant that Harris is leading," she said. "Even if they were tied in Iowa, I think that's significant."
Crouse said that Iowa's demographic is predominantly white and consists of an older generation of voters who typically skew Republican. That Harris might be gaining in a state like Iowa may signal that a different set of voters, including women and younger voters, are being underrepresented in polling.
"If Iowa flips to Harris, then it's possible that some of these swing states are being underestimated in their polls in terms of favorability for her," she said.
Iowa's political shift has been dramatic
A poll showing a Democratic presidential nominee with a lead in Iowa would not have caused such a stir in the past, given its longtime political competitiveness.
In 2000, then-Vice President Al Gore won the state by less than a point over then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush. Bush flipped the state to the GOP in his 2004 presidential reelection bid, winning it by a razor-thin 0.67% margin.
Iowa later played a key role in the launch of Barack Obama's presidency. In 2008, Obama won the state's Democratic caucus, which propelled his candidacy through the primary race. He went on to win the state easily that year and in his 2012 reelection bid.
But the state has tilted toward the GOP in recent years.
Trump defeated former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the state in the 2016 presidential election. Republican Joni Ernst was first elected to the US Senate in 2014 and continues to hold her seat. And the state legislature is dominated by conservative Republicans.
But some cracks are starting to show in the GOP's armor.
The Republican-controlled legislature passed a six-week abortion ban that went into effect in July and has proven to be unpopular with Iowans, according to polling conducted by Selzer & Co. in September.
In the survey, 59% of Iowa adults opposed the new abortion law, while only 37% of Iowa adults approved of it. And notably, 69% of female respondents in the Selzer poll opposed the law, while only 27% of Iowa women backed the new restrictions.
The law also appears to have taken a toll on the approval ratings of Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds.
In the Selzer poll taken in September, Reynolds' job approval rating sat at 45%, while 50% of Iowans disapproved of her performance. Since becoming governor in 2017, Reynolds has generally been one of the state's most popular politicians, which makes her most recent approval rating all the more striking.