- Peter Thiel made a "contrarian" prediction that the election wouldn't be close.
- He was right: Trump is on track to sweep the swing states, and he overperformed in blue states.
- Thiel has a history of making contrarian bets in his investments and business ventures.
In September, the conservative tech billionaire Peter Thiel made what he himself said was an unusual prediction about the 2024 election.
"I think the odds are slightly in favor of Trump, but it's basically 50-50. My one contrarian view on the election is that it's not going to be close," Thiel said in September during an appearance at the All-In Summit in Los Angeles. "You know, most presidential elections aren't."
Thiel, a venture capitalist who cofounded PayPal and Palantir, said that "two-thirds of elections" weren't close and that either Vice President Kamala Harris or now-President-elect Donald Trump would handily defeat the other.
"I think either the Kamala bubble will burst, or, you know, maybe the Trump voters get really demotivated and don't show up," Thiel said. "But I think one side is simply going to collapse in the next two months."
His prediction came true. Trump easily won the election and is on track to sweep all seven swing states. He also put up strong performances in some traditionally Democratic states and is projected to win the popular vote, which would be the first time a Republican has done so since 2004.
Thiel's argument may have been partially self-serving. At the time, he was facing a call from Sen. JD Vance of Ohio to "get off the sidelines." Thiel spent millions to help elect Vance, a personal friend, in 2022.
While Thiel said he was personally supportive of Trump this year, he declined to spend any money on the 2024 elections, saying that his financial contributions wouldn't make a difference at the presidential level.
"If it's not even close, I don't think it makes much of a difference," Thiel said in September.
A spokesperson for Thiel did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Thiel is known for being a contrarian who tends to make bets, via his business ventures and investments, that cut against the conventional wisdom.
In his book "Zero to One" — which he wrote with his protégé turned politician Blake Masters — Thiel advises entrepreneurs to focus on building companies that do things that others aren't doing, rather than spending energy trying to compete with existing companies.
His right-wing political views have also long been atypical among his Silicon Valley milieu, though that may be increasingly changing, with other tech figures, such as Elon Musk, coming around to Trump.