2008 United States presidential election in Virginia

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United States presidential election in Virginia, 2008

← 2004 November 4, 2008 2012 →
Turnout 74.0% (of registered voters)[1]
  Obama portrait crop.jpg John McCain official portrait 2009.jpg
Nominee Barack Obama John McCain
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Illinois Arizona
Running mate Joe Biden Sarah Palin
Electoral vote 13 0
Popular vote 1,959,532 1,725,005
Percentage 52.63% 46.33%

435px
County and Independent City Results

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

The 2008 United States presidential election in Virginia took place on November 4, 2008, which was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 13 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Virginia was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama by a 6.3% margin of victory. Prior to the election, 16 of 17 news organizations considered this a state Obama would win, or otherwise considered as a blue state, despite the fact that initially Virginia was a swing state that both campaigns targeted heavily in 2008 and that Virginia had been one of the most reliable red states in the nation since 1952. The financial meltdown, changing demographics, and population increases in voter-rich Northern Virginia helped make the state more competitive for Obama. It was the first time in over 40 years that Virginia voted for a Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon B. Johnson's victory in 1964.

This also marked the first presidential election since 1924 in which Virginia voted for the Democratic presidential candidate whilst neighboring West Virginia voted for the Republican presidential candidate.

Primaries

Campaign

Virginia was one of the first Southern states to break away from its traditional Democratic roots. It voted for Dwight Eisenhower by a convincing margin in 1952, and had voted for every Republican nominee since then save for Johnson's massive landslide in 1964.

However, the Democrats have made strong gains in the past years with winning two gubernatorial races in a row, regaining control of the Virginia Senate, and electing Democrat Jim Webb to the U.S. Senate in the Democratic wave of the 2006 midterms over incumbent Republican George Allen. Democrats have been able to make such gains in Virginia due in large part to the ever-expanding Northern Virginia, particularly the suburbs surrounding Washington, D.C. Historically, this area had been strongly Republican. However, in recent years it has been dominated by white liberals who tend to vote Democratic.[2] It was, ultimately, this rapid demographic change that provided a huge new influx of Democratic voters to Virginia.[3]

Both presidential campaigns and the mainstream media treated Virginia as a swing state for most of the campaign. Obama campaigned extensively in Virginia and counted on the booming northern parts of the state for a Democratic victory. Victory for McCain would have been extremely difficult without Virginia; he would have had to win every swing state as well as at least one Democratic-leaning state.

Predictions

There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

Polling

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After McCain clinched the Republican Party nomination in early March, he took a wide lead in polls against Obama, averaging almost 50%. But through the summer, polling was dead even. After the Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, Obama took a wide lead in the polls. In October, Obama won every single poll taken, and reached over 50% in most of them. The final three polls averaged Obama leading 52% to 46%.[17][18]

Fundraising

Obama raised $17,035,784. McCain raised $16,130,194.[19]

Spending and visits

Obama spent over $26 million to McCain spending just $14 million.[20] The Obama-Biden ticket visited the state 19 times compared to just 10 times for McCain-Palin.[21]

Analysis

File:GMU Mason Votes Election Day 004 (3004497702).jpg
Voters wait in queue at a polling station on the campus of George Mason University

On Election Day, early returns showed McCain ahead.[22] This was due in large part to the fact that many of the rural areas began to report first. However, Obama swamped McCain by scoring a near-sweep in Northern Virginia, which reported its returns last.

Obama did extremely well throughout the most populous regions of the state. Northern Virginia overwhelmingly supported Obama.[23] Fairfax County and Arlington counties, traditionally the most Democratic counties in the region, gave Obama over 60% of the vote. Moreover, Loudoun and Prince William counties, normally the more conservative counties in the region, voted Democratic for the first time since LBJ's 1964 landslide.

The two other major metropolitan areas in the eastern part of the state, Richmond and Hampton Roads, are somewhat less Democratic than Northern Virginia. In both areas, Obama improved significantly on John Kerry's performance.[23] While Obama easily won Richmond itself (which is 57% African American), he also made significant inroads into Richmond's traditionally heavily Republican suburbs. He carried Henrico County with 57% of the vote; that county last supported a Democrat with Harry S. Truman in 1948.[24] In Chesterfield County, Obama did almost 20 points better than Kerry.[25] Both counties have historically been strongly Republican, although Henrico is something of a swing county at state-level elections.

Obama also did very well in Hampton Roads. The four Democratic-leaning cities along the harbor - Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk, and Portsmouth - gave him margins exceeding 60%. Obama also split the Republican-leaning cities of Chesapeake and Virginia Beach; he barely won the former and barely lost the latter. Obama's strong performance in the area likely contributed to Democrat Glenn Nye unseating two-term Republican incumbent Thelma Drake in the 2nd Congressional District, a heavy military district which includes all of Virginia Beach and large portions of Norfolk and Hampton.

Obama also significantly outperformed Kerry in Western Virginia, an area where the national Democratic Party has historically not done well. Danville and Roanoke, usually the most Democratic cities in this region, gave him moderate support. He also had a major breakthrough in the Shenandoah Valley, historically one of the most Republican areas of the state. He won Harrisonburg, the largest city in the region, with a resounding 57% of the vote. He also won the second-largest city in the area, Staunton, albeit more narrowly. The Shenandoah Valley had been among the first regions of the state to turn Republican. The old Byrd Democrats in this region started splitting their tickets as early as the 1930s, and some counties in this region haven't supported a Democrat since Franklin D. Roosevelt. Several rural counties in Eastern Virginia with high African-American populations voted for Obama as well.

In contrast to Obama, McCain did well throughout rural Virginia.[25] He won the vast majority of its counties. In the part of Virginia protruding out west, Obama ran roughly even with Kerry, even though he comfortably won the election and Kerry lost. This area, save for one county and a few small towns, uniformly supported McCain. In addition, a number of unionized, Appalachian counties located next to Kentucky voted Republican; they had cast strong ballots for Bill Clinton. This was not surprising as this part of Virginia is a part of Appalachia, a region in which Obama consistently struggled during the course of the Democratic primary.

The Republican base in Virginia consists of the state's traditional Republican heartland in the Blue Ridge Mountains, social conservatives in the Shenandoah Valley and suburbanites in the east.[26] McCain closely matched George W. Bush's numbers among the first group and only did slightly worse than Bush amongst the second group. However, in 2008, suburbanites in Northern Virginia and in the Richmond/Hampton Roads areas abandoned the Republican Party in droves, and it was simply impossible for McCain to win the state without their support.

During the same election, former Democratic Governor Mark Warner solidly defeated former Governor (and his predecessor) Republican Jim Gilmore by a two-to-one margin for the open U.S. Senate seat vacated by incumbent Republican John Warner (no relation to Mark Warner). Warner received 65.03% of the vote while Gilmore took in 33.73%. Warner won all but five counties in the state. Democrats also picked up three seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. At the state level, Democrats picked up one seat in the Virginia House of Delegates.

Despite Obama's victory, the fact remains that Virginia's margin was 0.97% more Republican than the national average. As of the 2016 presidential election, this is the last election in which King and Queen County, Virginia voted for the Democratic candidate.

Results

United States presidential election in Virginia, 2008[27]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 1,959,532 52.63% 13
Republican John McCain Sarah Palin 1,725,005 46.33% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 11,483 0.31% 0
Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root 11,067 0.30% 0
Constitution Chuck Baldwin Darrell Castle 7,474 0.20% 0
Green Cynthia McKinney Rosa Clemente 2,344 0.06% 0
Write-ins Write-ins 6,355 0.17% 0
Totals 3,723,260 100.00% 13
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 65.1%

Results breakdown

By city/county

City/County Obama% Obama# McCain% McCain# Others% Others# Total
Accomack County 48.69% 7,607 50.14% 7,833 1.17% 183 15,623
Albemarle County 58.43% 29,792 40.36% 20,576 1.21% 616 50,984
Alleghany County 48.22% 3,553 50.41% 3,715 1.37% 101 7,369
Amelia County 38.11% 2,488 60.81% 3,970 1.09% 71 6,529
Amherst County 41.46% 6,094 57.62% 8,470 0.93% 136 14,700
Appomattox County 34.61% 2,641 64.26% 4,903 1.13% 86 7,630
Arlington County 71.71% 78,994 27.12% 29,876 1.16% 1,283 110,153
Augusta County 29.47% 9,825 69.35% 23,120 1.18% 393 33,338
Bath County 42.89% 1,043 55.47% 1,349 1.64% 40 2,432
Bedford County 30.75% 11,017 68.16% 24,420 1.10% 393 35,830
Bland County 29.20% 864 68.64% 2,031 2.16% 64 2,959
Botetourt County 32.71% 5,693 65.90% 11,471 1.39% 242 17,406
Brunswick County 62.84% 4,973 36.35% 2,877 0.81% 64 7,914
Buchanan County 46.52% 4,063 51.99% 4,541 1.49% 130 8,734
Buckingham County 49.89% 3,489 49.01% 3,428 1.10% 77 6,994
Campbell County 31.34% 8,091 67.58% 17,444 1.08% 279 25,814
Caroline County 55.45% 7,163 43.48% 5,617 1.08% 139 12,919
Carroll County 32.66% 4,108 65.09% 8,187 2.25% 283 12,578
Charles City County 68.34% 2,838 31.01% 1,288 0.65% 27 4,153
Charlotte County 43.93% 2,705 54.77% 3,372 1.30% 80 6,157
Chesterfield County 45.85% 74,310 53.31% 86,413 0.84% 1,365 162,088
Clarke County 46.52% 3,457 51.68% 3,840 1.80% 134 7,431
Craig County 33.44% 876 64.69% 1,695 1.87% 49 2,620
Culpeper County 44.59% 8,802 54.26% 10,711 1.15% 228 19,741
Cumberland County 47.73% 2,255 51.19% 2,418 1.08% 51 4,724
Dickenson County 48.54% 3,278 49.22% 3,324 2.24% 151 6,753
Dinwiddie County 48.45% 6,246 50.62% 6,526 0.93% 120 12,892
Essex County 54.70% 2,934 44.35% 2,379 0.95% 51 5,364
Fairfax County 60.12% 310,359 38.93% 200,994 0.95% 4,901 516,254
Fauquier County 42.71% 14,616 56.19% 19,227 1.10% 376 34,219
Floyd County 39.08% 2,937 59.09% 4,441 1.84% 138 7,516
Fluvanna County 48.57% 6,185 50.41% 6,420 1.02% 130 12,735
Franklin County 37.86% 9,618 60.68% 15,414 1.45% 369 25,401
Frederick County 38.56% 12,961 59.95% 20,149 1.49% 502 33,612
Giles County 40.95% 3,192 57.24% 4,462 1.81% 141 7,795
Gloucester County 35.98% 6,916 62.89% 12,089 1.13% 217 19,222
Goochland County 38.31% 4,813 60.84% 7,643 0.84% 106 12,562
Grayson County 34.35% 2,480 62.88% 4,540 2.77% 200 7,220
Greene County 38.43% 3,174 60.29% 4,980 1.28% 106 8,260
Greensville County 63.88% 3,122 35.38% 1,729 0.74% 36 4,887
Halifax County 48.23% 8,126 51.04% 8,600 0.74% 124 16,850
Hanover County 32.80% 18,447 66.39% 37,344 0.81% 457 56,248
Henrico County 55.70% 86,323 43.48% 67,381 0.81% 1,262 154,966
Henry County 44.09% 11,118 54.56% 13,758 1.34% 339 25,215
Highland County 37.97% 590 59.85% 930 2.19% 34 1,554
Isle of Wight County 42.87% 8,573 56.30% 11,258 0.83% 166 19,997
James City County 44.95% 17,352 54.17% 20,912 0.88% 339 38,603
King and Queen County 51.77% 1,918 47.58% 1,763 0.65% 24 3,705
King George County 42.71% 4,473 56.22% 5,888 1.08% 113 10,474
King William County 39.87% 3,344 59.20% 4,966 0.93% 78 8,388
Lancaster County 46.63% 3,235 52.57% 3,647 0.81% 56 6,938
Lee County 34.89% 3,219 63.13% 5,825 1.98% 183 9,227
Loudoun County 53.67% 74,845 45.42% 63,336 0.92% 1,278 139,459
Louisa County 45.45% 6,978 53.29% 8,182 1.26% 193 15,353
Lunenburg County 47.84% 2,703 51.33% 2,900 0.83% 47 5,650
Madison County 42.72% 2,862 56.10% 3,758 1.18% 79 6,699
Mathews County 35.66% 1,943 63.42% 3,456 0.92% 50 5,449
Mecklenburg County 47.26% 7,127 51.83% 7,817 0.91% 138 15,082
Middlesex County 39.81% 2,391 59.02% 3,545 1.17% 70 6,006
Montgomery County 51.73% 21,031 46.81% 19,028 1.46% 594 40,653
Nelson County 53.99% 4,391 44.84% 3,647 1.17% 95 8,133
New Kent County 34.96% 3,493 63.91% 6,385 1.13% 113 9,991
Northampton County 57.70% 3,800 41.19% 2,713 1.11% 73 6,586
Northumberland County 44.72% 3,312 54.56% 4,041 0.72% 53 7,406
Nottoway County 48.84% 3,413 50.07% 3,499 1.09% 76 6,988
Orange County 44.98% 7,107 53.83% 8,506 1.19% 188 15,801
Page County 40.76% 4,235 58.15% 6,041 1.09% 113 10,389
Patrick County 33.75% 2,879 64.37% 5,491 1.89% 161 8,531
Pittsylvania County 37.51% 11,415 61.55% 18,730 0.95% 288 30,433
Powhatan County 29.31% 4,237 69.78% 10,088 0.91% 131 14,456
Prince Edward County 54.34% 5,101 44.46% 4,174 1.20% 113 9,388
Prince George County 44.55% 7,130 54.68% 8,752 0.77% 124 16,006
Prince William County 57.52% 93,435 41.63% 67,621 0.86% 1,390 162,446
Pulaski County 39.32% 5,918 58.85% 8,857 1.83% 275 15,050
Rappahannock County 47.79% 2,105 50.56% 2,227 1.66% 73 4,405
Richmond County 43.20% 1,618 55.86% 2,092 0.93% 35 3,745
Roanoke County 38.87% 19,812 59.97% 30,571 1.16% 592 50,975
Rockbridge County 42.64% 4,347 56.22% 5,732 1.14% 116 10,195
Rockingham County 31.36% 10,453 67.40% 22,468 1.24% 413 33,334
Russell County 42.90% 4,931 55.59% 6,389 1.51% 173 11,493
Scott County 27.59% 2,725 70.68% 6,980 1.72% 170 9,875
Shenandoah County 35.96% 6,912 62.45% 12,005 1.59% 306 19,223
Smyth County 34.46% 4,239 63.54% 7,817 2.00% 246 12,302
Southampton County 48.55% 4,402 50.55% 4,583 0.90% 82 9,067
Spotsylvania County 46.05% 24,897 52.91% 28,610 1.04% 562 54,069
Stafford County 46.37% 25,716 52.69% 29,221 0.93% 518 55,455
Surry County 60.72% 2,626 38.45% 1,663 0.83% 36 4,325
Sussex County 61.55% 3,301 37.78% 2,026 0.67% 36 5,363
Tazewell County 32.80% 5,596 65.65% 11,201 1.55% 264 17,061
Warren County 43.39% 6,997 55.06% 8,879 1.55% 250 16,126
Washington County 32.91% 8,063 65.62% 16,077 1.47% 360 24,500
Westmoreland County 54.64% 4,577 44.40% 3,719 0.97% 81 8,377
Wise County 35.33% 4,995 63.05% 8,914 1.62% 229 14,138
Wythe County 32.88% 4,107 65.70% 8,207 1.42% 177 12,491
York County 40.42% 13,700 58.51% 19,833 1.07% 364 33,897
Alexandria 71.73% 50,473 27.26% 19,181 1.01% 710 70,364
Bristol 36.21% 2,665 62.22% 4,579 1.56% 115 7,359
Buena Vista 45.73% 1,108 52.91% 1,282 1.36% 33 2,423
Charlottesville 78.35% 15,705 20.35% 4,078 1.30% 261 20,044
Chesapeake 50.22% 53,994 48.94% 52,625 0.84% 902 107,521
Colonial Heights 28.95% 2,562 69.62% 6,161 1.42% 126 8,849
Covington 55.40% 1,304 43.33% 1,020 1.27% 30 2,354
Danville 59.13% 12,352 40.02% 8,361 0.85% 177 20,890
Emporia 65.04% 1,702 34.28% 897 0.69% 18 2,617
Fairfax 57.69% 6,575 41.16% 4,691 1.16% 132 11,398
Falls Church 69.56% 4,695 29.19% 1,970 1.26% 85 6,750
Franklin 63.68% 2,819 35.60% 1,576 0.72% 32 4,427
Fredericksburg 63.60% 6,155 35.27% 3,413 1.13% 109 9,677
Galax 43.80% 1,052 54.83% 1,317 1.37% 33 2,402
Hampton 69.05% 46,917 30.14% 20,476 0.81% 550 67,943
Harrisonburg 57.54% 8,444 41.21% 6,048 1.25% 183 14,675
Hopewell 55.49% 5,285 43.56% 4,149 0.94% 90 9,524
Lexington 62.24% 1,543 36.87% 914 0.89% 22 2,479
Lynchburg 47.37% 16,269 51.36% 17,638 1.26% 434 34,341
Manassas 55.17% 7,518 43.85% 5,975 0.98% 134 13,627
Manassas Park 59.49% 2,463 39.47% 1,634 1.04% 43 4,140
Martinsville 63.48% 4,139 35.44% 2,311 1.07% 70 6,520
Newport News 63.93% 51,972 35.26% 28,667 0.81% 656 81,295
Norfolk 71.03% 62,819 28.06% 24,814 0.92% 813 88,446
Norton 49.14% 743 49.21% 744 1.65% 25 1,512
Petersburg 88.64% 13,774 10.19% 1,583 1.18% 183 15,540
Poquoson 24.74% 1,748 74.01% 5,229 1.25% 88 7,065
Portsmouth 69.27% 32,327 29.97% 13,984 0.76% 354 46,665
Radford 53.97% 2,930 44.54% 2,418 1.49% 81 5,429
Richmond 79.09% 73,623 20.03% 18,649 0.87% 813 93,085
Roanoke 61.15% 24,934 37.76% 15,394 1.09% 444 40,772
Salem 41.63% 5,164 57.13% 7,088 1.24% 154 12,406
Staunton 50.56% 5,569 48.39% 5,330 1.05% 116 11,015
Suffolk 56.24% 22,446 43.01% 17,165 0.74% 297 39,908
Virginia Beach 49.14% 98,885 49.85% 100,319 1.02% 2,045 201,249
Waynesboro 44.09% 3,906 54.35% 4,815 1.57% 139 8,860
Williamsburg 63.77% 4,328 34.67% 2,353 1.56% 106 6,787
Winchester 52.02% 5,268 46.66% 4,725 1.31% 133 10,126

By congressional district

Barack Obama carried 6 of the state’s 11 congressional districts, including four districts held by Republicans at the time of the election. John McCain carried five districts, one of which was held by Democrats on election day.

District McCain Obama Representative
1st 51.35% 47.67% Jo Ann Davis (110th Congress)
Robert J. Wittman (111th Congress)
2nd 48.48% 50.45% Thelma Drake (110th Congress)
Glenn Nye (111th Congress)
3rd 23.74% 75.52% Robert C. Scott
4th 48.80% 50.33% Randy Forbes
5th 50.59% 48.29% Virgil Goode (110th Congress)
Tom Perriello (111th Congress)
6th 56.93% 41.85% Bob Goodlatte
7th 53.16% 45.89% Eric Cantor
8th 29.65% 69.28% Jim Moran
9th 58.71% 39.60% Rick Boucher
10th 46.06% 52.90% Frank Wolf
11th 42.06% 57.01% Thomas M. Davis (110th Congress)
Gerry Connolly (111th Congress)

Electors

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Technically the voters of Virginia cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Virginia is allocated 13 electors because it has 11 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 13 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 13 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[28] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 13 were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:[29]

  1. Christia Rey
  2. Sandra Brandt
  3. Betty Squire
  4. Susan Johnston Rowland
  5. Marc Finney
  6. Dorothy Blackwell
  7. James Harold Allen Boyd
  8. Marian Van Landingham
  9. Robert Edgar Childress
  10. Rolland Winter
  11. Janet Carver
  12. Michael Jon
  13. Sophie Ann Salley

References

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  8. 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 Based on Takeaway
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  10. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5
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  18. http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=51
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  23. 23.0 23.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  24. Todd, Chuck and Gawiser, Sheldon. How Barack Obama Won. New York City: Vintage, 2009.
  25. 25.0 25.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  26. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  27. http://clerk.house.gov/member_info/electionInfo/2008election.pdf
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  29. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.

See also