Division of Paterson

This article is about the Australian federal electorate. For the Tasmanian state electorate, see Electoral division of Paterson.

Paterson Australian House of Representatives Division
File:Australian Electoral Division of Paterson, 2016.png The location of the Division of Paterson, highlighted in red, in New South Wales, as of the 2016 federal election.
Created	1949
Dates current	1949–84, 1992–present
MP	Bob Baldwin
Party	Liberal
Namesake	Banjo Paterson
Electors	97,107 (2013)
Area	1,123 km2 (433.6 sq mi)
Demographic	Rural
Coordinates

The Division of Paterson is an Australian electoral division in the state of New South Wales. It is located just north of Newcastle, on the coast of the Tasman Sea. The division is named after federation-era poet and author Banjo Paterson and was originally created in 1949 and abolished in 1984. It was recreated after a redistribution in 1992.

The division is located in the lower Hunter Valley and lower North Coast. It includes the towns of Maitland, Kurri Kurri Raymond Terrace, Tarro and Woodberry.

History

Paterson was first created at the redistribution of 11 May 1949. It was named after Banjo Paterson although there is conjecture that it was originally named after Colonel William Paterson who also gave his name to the Paterson River and the town of Paterson, both of which were situated within the electorate. It was first contested at the 1949 election. At the time it included the towns of Singleton, Maitland and Muswellbrook. Redistributions eventually moved the electorate north until it included Gunnedah and Mudgee. The original electorate was abolished at the 11 October 1984 redistribution.

At the redistribution of 31 January 1992 the electorate was recreated, covering a similar area to the original electorate. It extended from the lower Hunter Valley in the south to the Manning River in the north, and the Great Dividing Range in the west. It included the towns of Forster, Nelson Bay, Raymond Terrace and Paterson.

It was first contested at the 1993 federal election and was narrowly won by Bob Horne (Labor). After 1993 the seat was continuously exchanged between Horne and Liberal Bob Baldwin; the seat changed hands in 1996, in 1998 and again in 2001. During this period both Bobs became so well known that name recognition in the division was often in excess of 90% in private party polling.

Horne did not contest the seat at the 2004 election at which Baldwin comfortably defeated a new Labor candidate, former Port Stephens councillor Giovanna Kozary, to retain the seat for the first time. At the 2007 election, Baldwin narrowly defeated new Labor candidate Jim Arneman, a Health Services Union organiser. Baldwin faced Arneman again in 2010 election and was reelected on a swing of four percent, garnering enough votes to win on the first count. At the 2013 election, Baldwin further consolidated his hold on the seat, again winning enough votes to win on the first count. His nearest competitor was Bay Marshall (Labor).

2015 redistribution

File:Division of Paterson 2010.png

Division of Paterson (green) within New South Wales, prior to the 2015 redistribution

In 2015 the Australian Electoral Commission announced plans to abolish the federation seat of Hunter. Electors in the north of Hunter would have joined New England. The roughly 40 percent remainder would have become part of Paterson, where the Liberal margin was to be notionally reduced from 9.8 percent to just 0.5 percent as a result.

However, the new map saw Paterson radically reconfigured into a more compact coastal-based seat in the lower Hunter Valley, covering only 1,123 km² (434 sq mi) – only one-sixth of its previous territory. It also absorbed some territory previously in the Labor strongholds of Hunter and Newcastle. The new map completely erased the Liberal majority; on its new boundaries, it has a paper-thin notional Labor majority of 0.3 percent. Baldwin opted not to contest the 2016 election. ABC election analyst Antony Green wrote that even with the knife-edge notional Labor majority, the Liberals will find it extremely difficult to hold the reconfigured Paterson.

Members

First incarnation (1949–84)
Member		Party	Term
	Allen Fairhall	Liberal	1949–69
	Frank O'Keefe	Country	1969–75
		National Country	1975–82
		National	1982–84
Second incarnation (1993–present)
Member		Party	Term
	Bob Horne	Labor	1993–96
	Bob Baldwin	Liberal	1996–98
	Bob Horne	Labor	1998–2001
	Bob Baldwin	Liberal	2001–present

Election results

Main article: Electoral results for the Division of Paterson

Australian federal election, 2013: Paterson

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Liberal	Bob Baldwin	46,922	53.86	+2.56
	Labor	Bay Marshall	25,811	29.63	−8.63
	Greens	John Brown	5,812	6.67	+0.68
	Palmer United	Jayson Packett	5,451	6.26	+6.26
	Christian Democrats	Anna Balfour	1,854	2.13	+1.07
	Rise Up Australia	Bob Holz	877	1.01	+1.01
	CEC	Peter Davis	390	0.45	+0.45
Total formal votes			87,117	94.83	+0.47
Informal votes			4,746	5.17	−0.47
Turnout			91,863	94.60	−0.16
Two-party-preferred result
	Liberal	Bob Baldwin	52,080	59.78	+4.45
	Labor	Bay Marshall	35,037	40.22	−4.45
	Liberal hold		Swing	+4.45

External links

• Division of Paterson – Australian Electoral Commission