Syrian peace process

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Muslims and Christians at a meeting with Arab League monitors in Damascus on 17 January 2012.

The Syrian peace process is the ensemble of initiatives and plans to resolve the Syrian Civil War, which has ravaged in Syria since 2011 and has spilled beyond its borders. The peace process has been moderated by the Arab League, the UN peace envoys on Syria, Russia and Western Powers. The negotiating parties to end the conflict are typically representatives of the Syrian Ba'athist government and Syrian Opposition, while the Western-backed Kurdish forces have stayed out of the negotiations framework. Radical Salafist forces and Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant have not engaged in any contacts on peaceful resolution to the conflict.

The attempts to find a solution to the conflict began in late 2011, when the Arab League launched two initiatives, but without much success. Russia in January 2012 and in November 2013 suggested talks in Moscow between the Syrian government and opposition. In March-May 2012, hopes were on a United Nations/Arab League plan coordinated by Kofi Annan. In January and February 2014, the Geneva II Conference on Syria took place, organized by Lakhdar Brahimi, then UN envoy to Syria. On 30 October 2015, further talks started in Vienna involving officials from the US, the EU, Russia, China and various regional actors such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey and, for the first time, Iran.

Timeline

Arab League peace plans 2011-2012

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Main article: Arab League peace plans for Syria

In November 2011 – January 2012, the Arab League (AL) twice tried to accomplish an end to Syrian government (and opposition) violence and convince both parties to start talks instead of fighting.

After agreement of the Syrian government to the AL plan of 19 December the AL sent a monitoring mission to Syria. Violence continued and Saudi Arabia on 22 January withdrew its monitors from the mission, and called on Russia, China and all other states to pressure Syria strongly to adhere to the AL peace plan. The Arab League on 28 January 2012 ended its monitoring mission.

Russian peace initiatives for Syria

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See also: Russia's role in the Syrian conflict

2012 'informal talks' proposal

On 30 January 2012, the Russian foreign ministry suggested “informal” talks in Moscow between the Syrian government and opposition, and said the Syrian authorities had already agreed to the Russian offer. Abdel Baset Seda, a member of the Syrian National Council’s executive committee, told Reuters that the SNC had not received any formal invitation for such talks, but would decline if one arrived: “Our position has not changed and it is that there is no dialogue with (President Bashar al-Assad)”.[1]

Feb. 2012: offering the fall of Assad

In February 2012 Martti Ahtisaari held talks with envoys of the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council. During those discussions the Russian ambassador, Vitaly Churkin, proposed a three-point plan, which would bring the Syrian government and opposition to the negotiation table and result in Assad stepping down as president. But, according to Ahtisaari, US, Britain and France rejected that proposal, being convinced that fall of Assad's government was inevitable. “It was an opportunity lost in 2012,” he said in an interview in September 2015. Other Western diplomats refute Ahtisaari's claims, with one stating, “I very much doubt the P3 [the US, UK and France] refused or dismissed any such strategy offer at the time. The questions were more to do with sequencing – the beginning or end of process – and with Russia’s ability to deliver – to get Assad to step down.”[2]

Brokerage proposal, 2013

On 7 November 2013, Russia again announced it was trying to broker talks in Moscow between the Syrian government and opposition, seeing that the U.S. and Russian negotiators failed to agree on whether or not Assad should be forced out of office.[3] Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Bogdanov said, the Moscow talks could focus on humanitarian problems as well on some political issues.[3]

Friends of Syria Group, February 2012

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Main article: Friends of Syria Group

In February 2012, the then French President Sarkozy initiated an international "contact group" to find a solution for the Syrian conflict, after Russia and China had vetoed a 4 February 2012 UN Security Council resolution.[4] The group held four meetings, all in the year 2012.

Kofi Annan peace plan, March 2012

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Main article: Kofi Annan Syrian peace plan

The Kofi Annan (Joint Special Envoy for the United Nations and the Arab League) peace plan,[5] launched in March 2012, intended to commit both the Syrian government and opposition to a cease fire and commit the Syrian government to initiate deliberations with the opposition on their aspirations and concerns. After Annan on 12 April had assumed that both parties had agreed to a cease fire, the UN already on 1 May had to admit that both parties were violating it.

Geneva I, June 2012

An "action group" conference (now referred to as Geneva I Conference on Syria) was held on Saturday 30 June 2012, in Geneva, initiated by the then UN peace envoy to Syria Kofi Annan,[6] and attended by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, a representative of China, British Foreign Secretary Hague, and Kofi Annan.[7] Mr Annan, issuing a communiqué,[8] said that the conference agreed [9] on the need for a "transitional government body with full executive powers" which could include members of the present Syrian government and of the opposition.[7] William Hague said that all five permanent members of the UN Security Council – the US, Russia, China, France and the UK – supported Mr Annan’s efforts.[7] Clinton however suggested that Syrian dictator Assad could, in such transitional government, not remain in power, which immediately was contradicted by Lavrov.[7]

Eid al-Adha cease fire attempt, September 2012

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See also: Lakhdar Brahimi Syrian peace plan

Lakhdar Brahimi, an Algerian diplomat, appointed on September 1, 2012, as the new U.N.-Arab League special representative for Syria, appealed on both the Syrian government and the armed opposition to stop the killing during the Islamic festival of Eid al-Adha, which fell that year probably on 26 October 2012, and 3 or 4 days after it. Government and most of the opposition groups said ‘yes’ to his appeal. Yet, the lull in the fighting lasted very short, according to Brahimi, after which both parties accused the other of not having stopped its violence.[6]

Geneva II, 2014

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Main article: Geneva II Conference on Syria

The Geneva II Middle East peace conference was a United Nations (UN) backed international (peace) conference, aimed at bringing Syrian government and opposition together to discuss a transitional government. Lakhdar Brahimi, UN special envoy to Syria, tried to pursue the conference in close cooperation with the U.S. and Russia. It started on 22 January 2014 and ended on 31 January; no agreement was reached.

UN envoy peace proposal, 2015

UN peace envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, announced in early July plans to present new proposals at the end of July on the next steps needed in efforts to end the war. There have been no peace talks on Syria since the Geneva II meetings in early 2014 ended in failure.[10]

Zabadani cease-fire

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Main article: 2015 Zabadani cease-fire agreement

In September 2015 Hezbollah, an ally of the Syrian government, announced a six-month truce between the rebel-held town of Zabadani near Damascus and two Shia towns in the north-west of Syria. The deal was reached after mediation from Iran.[11]

Four committees initiative

The Four committees initiative is a proposal put forward by United Nations envoy Staffan de Mistura on 29 July 2015 as a way to start the peace process in the Syrian Civil War.[12]

Vienna process (since October 2015)

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Further information: Syria peace talks in Vienna

On 23 October 2015, the Foreign Ministers of the United States, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Turkey met and talked in Vienna, Austria, to find a way to end the Syrian conflict.[13]

On 30 October 2015, the first round of the Syria peace talks were held in Vienna with foreign ministers of 20 countries participating: U.S., Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, China, United Kingdom, France, Italy, Germany and other countries. The ministers agreed on the need of the Syrian government and opposition to start political talks.[14][15] The second round of the Vienna talks held in mid-November produced an agreement on the need to convene Syrian government and opposition representatives in formal negotiations under UN auspices with a target date of 1 January 2016.[16]

A day after a meeting of anti-government factions, including Ahrar ash-Sham, held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on 10 December produced a statement of principles to guide peace talks with the Syrian government,[17][18] Syrian president Bashar Assad said he would not negotiate with "foreign terrorists."[19] Russia also rejected the outcome of the meeting in Riyadh, which it said was unrepresentative and included terrorist groups.[20]

After John Kerry visited Moscow where he met his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov as well as Vladimir Putin on 15 December, it was announced that on 18 December 2015 world powers would meet in New York to pass a UN resolution endorsing the principles of the Syria peace process.[20]

On 18 December 2015, the UN Security Council, having overcome the gridlock on Syria that had persisted since October 2011,[21][22][23] unanimously passed Resolution 2254 (2015), endorsing the ISSG′s transitional plan that set out a timetable for formal talks and a unity government within six months; the resolution put UN special envoy Staffan de Mistura in charge of organising Syria talks.[24][25] However, the major powers remained divided on who should represent the Syrian opposition; no mention was made of the future role of Syrian President Bashar Assad.[26][27]

Riyadh December 2015 conference of Syrian opposition groups

ON 10 December 2015, a two-day meeting started in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, aiming at unifying Syria’s opposition groups and forming an opposition delegation for the planned negotiations with the Syrian government (see Syria peace talks in Vienna#14 November 2015 meeting).[28][29]

Syrian Kurdish factions were not represented at the meeting in Riyadh.[29] Jabhat al-Nusra had not been invited because of its assumed ‘terrorist links’ or al-Qaeda ties.[29]

An agreement emerged on 12 December:[29] 34 oppositional groups allied themselves as ‘the High Negotiation Committee’.[30] This included, among others, Ahrar al-Sham and Jaysh al-Islam, but did not include Syrian Kurds[30] and not include some moderate opposition members supported by Russia.[31]

France announced that “the Syrian opposition” had reached an agreement and had “adopted a common program” in Riyadh.[28] Apart from France and Saudi Arabia, also Turkey and Qatar supported that ‘High Negotiation Committee’.[30]

Russia however said that those gathered in Riyadh did not represent all opposition groups and therefore were not in a position to speak on behalf of the entire Syrian opposition.[28]

Geneva III, 2016

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Main article: Geneva Peace Conference (2016)

On Friday, 29 January 2016, a UN Peace Conference for Syria started in Geneva in Switzerland. At the first day, Syrian government and opposition refused to sit in the same room together. On 3 February 2016, UN envoy Staffan de Mistura suspended the peace talks.[32]

Russian foreign minister Lavrov commented that "the [Syrian] opposition took a completely unconstructive position and tried to put forward preconditions".[33]

Rebel commanders were cited as saying they hoped the peace talks' collapse would "convince their foreign backers, states including Turkey and Saudi Arabia, that it was time to send them more powerful and advanced weapons, including anti-aircraft missiles".[34]

Cessation of hostilities (27 February 2016)

On 12 February 2016, the ISSG powers established an ISSG ceasefire task force, under the auspices of the UN, co-chaired by Russia and the United States, and issued a joint communique saying inter alia: ″An ISSG task force will within one week elaborate modalities for a nationwide cessation of hostilities.

On 22 February 2016, in Munich, foreign ministers of Russia and the U.S., as co-chairs of the ISSG,[35] announced that they had concluded a deal to seek a nationwide cessation of hostilities in Syria to begin a week later.[36] The deal set out the Terms for a Cessation of Hostilities in Syria. Russia and the U.S. proposed that the cessation of hostilities commence at 00:00 (Damascus time) on February 27, 2016.[35]

The ISSG countries are supposed to monitor compliance with the terms of the truce, which was pronounced as of 29 February 2016, when the ISSG task force met in Geneva, to be largely holding.[37][38]

See also

References

  1. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  2. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 Canceled Syria talks may get new start in Moscow, USA Today, 7 November 2013. Retrieved 25 November 2013.
  4. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  5. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  6. ↑ 6.0 6.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  7. ↑ 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  8. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  9. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  10. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  11. ↑ 'Hezbollah announces truce covering three Syrian towns'. Al Jazeera, 26 September 2015. Retrieved 24 October 2015.
  12. ↑ UN chief takes aim at Russia over Syria military buildup, Middle East Eye, 17-09-2015
  13. ↑ Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 24 October 2015.[full citation needed]
  14. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  15. ↑ Arch-rivals Saudi Arabia, Iran to discuss Syria face-to-face for first time, Reuters, 28-10-15
  16. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  17. ↑ Syrian revolution and opposition forces express their commitment to the Syrian unity
  18. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  19. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  20. ↑ 20.0 20.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  21. ↑ Russia and China veto draft Security Council resolution on Syria UN website, 4 October 2011.
  22. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  23. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  24. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  25. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  26. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  27. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  28. ↑ 28.0 28.1 28.2 'Saudi hails Syrian opposition meet ‘breakthrough’'. Al Arabiya News, 12 December 2015. Retrieved 27 January 2016.
  29. ↑ 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 'Syria Talks: Rebel Negotiations In Saudi Arabia Exclude Key Players In Syrian Opposition'. International Business Times, 13 December 2015. Retrieved 27 January 2016.
  30. ↑ 30.0 30.1 30.2 NRC Handelsblad, 26 January 2016. Full citation (translated from Dutch): “Late last year, Saudi Arabia has forged an alliance of 34 groups that should represent the whole opposition at the negotiations – the High Negotiation Committee. (…) In the lead up to the peace talks, Saudi Arabia has forged an alliance of 34 political and armed groups that should represent the opposition in Geneva. But that alliance does by far not include all Syrian opposition groups. The alliance is being supported by France, Turkey and Qatar. But Russia objects to the fact that radical islamic groups as Ahrar al-Sham and Jaish al-Islam are part of the alliance. (…) Turkey supports the High Negotiation Committee and fiercely opposes participation of Syrian Kurds.”
  31. ↑ NRC Handelsblad, 30 January 2016. Full citation (from the Dutch): “…only the delegation of the regime and some members of the moderate opposition supported by Russia had come down to Geneva”.
  32. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  33. ↑ ‘Syria crisis plan: Cessation of hostilities, humanitarian airdrops, peace talks laid out in Munich’. Rt.com, 12 February 2016. Retrieved 19 February 2016.
  34. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  35. ↑ 35.0 35.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  36. ↑ Syria war pause plan agreed by world powers
  37. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  38. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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