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    Markov Analisis

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    koralbiru
    Human resource planning involves forecasting future staffing needs and availabilities. The process includes forecasting demand based on factors like sales projections and turnover analysis. It also includes forecasting supply using tools like succession planning, skills inventories, and transition matrices. Comparing forecasts of demand and supply identifies expected surpluses or shortages to help the organization address challenges.

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    Markov Analisis

    Uploaded by

    koralbiru
    165 views17 pages
    Human resource planning involves forecasting future staffing needs and availabilities. The process includes forecasting demand based on factors like sales projections and turnover analysis. It also includes forecasting supply using tools like succession planning, skills inventories, and transition matrices. Comparing forecasts of demand and supply identifies expected surpluses or shortages to help the organization address challenges.

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    Human resource planning involves forecasting future staffing needs and availabilities. The process includes forecasting demand based on factors like sales projections and turnover analysis. It also includes forecasting supply using tools like succession planning, skills inventories, and transition matrices. Comparing forecasts of demand and supply identifies expected surpluses or shortages to help the organization address challenges.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    165 views17 pages

    Markov Analisis

    Uploaded by

    koralbiru
    Human resource planning involves forecasting future staffing needs and availabilities. The process includes forecasting demand based on factors like sales projections and turnover analysis. It also includes forecasting supply using tools like succession planning, skills inventories, and transition matrices. Comparing forecasts of demand and supply identifies expected surpluses or shortages to help the organization address challenges.

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    of 17

    The Process of Human Resource Planning

    Organizations need to do human resource planning so they can meet business objectives and gain a competitive advantage over competitors.
    Human resource planning compares the present state of the organization with its goals for the future Then identifies what changes it must make in its human resources to meet those goals

    Overview of the Human Resource Planning Process

    Human Resource Forecasting


    HR Forecasting attempts There are three major to determine the supply steps to forecasting: and demand for various types of human resources, 1. Forecasting the demand for labor and to predict areas 2. Determining labor within the organization supply where there will be labor shortages or surpluses. 3. Determining labor surpluses and shortages

    HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING


    FORECASTING HR REQUIREMENTS (DEMAND ANALYSIS) (Trying to predict future staffing needs) Managerial Estimates Sales Projections Simulations Vacancy Analysis (projected turnover) FORECASTING HR AVAILABILITY (SUPPLY ANALYSIS) (Predicting worker flows and availabilities) Succession or Replacement Charts Skills Inventories (use of HRIS) Labor Market Analysis Markov Analysis (Transition Matrix) Personnel Ratios

    Forecasting the Demand for Labor


    Trend Analysis Constructing and applying statistical models that predict labor demand for the next year, given relatively objective statistics from the previous year.

    Leading Indicators Objective measures that accurately predict future labor demand.

    CORRELATIONS/PROJECTIONS

    SIZE OF HOSPITAL

    NUMBER OF NURSES

    200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

    240 260 470 500 620 660 820 860

    SIMULATION MODEL/REGRESSION FORECAST TARGET STORES STAFFING FORECAST


    MODEL

    Y = 8 + .0011(X1) + .00004(X2) + .02(X3)


    Y = Number of employees needed to staff the store X1 = Square feet of sales space X2 = Population of metropolitan area X3 = Projected annual disposable income in millions of dollars Y = 8 + .0011(50,000sq ft) + .00004(150,000popul) + .00000002($850 million)

    Y = 8 + 55 + 6 + 17

    Y = 86 employees needed at this store

    VACANCY ANALYSIS
    Historic departures used to project turnover
    LEVEL # EMPL TURN % Expected Vacancies Expected to Remain

    TOP MGMT MID MGMT LOW MGMT

    100 200 600

    20 % 24 % 22 %

    20 48 132

    80 152 468

    SKILLED W
    ASSY WKRS

    600
    2000

    16%
    12 %

    96
    240

    504
    1760

    TOTALS

    3500

    536

    2964

    AVERAGE TURNOVER PERCENTAGE = 536 / 3500 =

    .1531

    Determining Labor Supply


    Predicting Worker Flows and Availabilities

    Succession or Replacement Charts


    Who has been groomed/developed and is ready for promotion right NOW?

    Human Resource Information Systems (HRIS)


    An employee database that can be searched when vacancies occur.

    Transition Matrices (Markov Analysis)


    A chart that lists job categories held in one period and shows the proportion of employees in each of those job categories in a future period. It answers two questions: 1. Where did people in each job category go? 2. Where did people now in each job category come from?

    Personnel / Yield Ratios


    How much work will it take to recruit one new accountant?

    SUCCESSION PLANNING
    REPLACEMENT CHART
    FOR EXECUTIVE POSITIONS

    POSITION REPLACEMENT CARDS


    FOR EACH INDIVIDUAL POSITION

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------

    POSITION
    DANIEL BEALER
    POSSIBLE CANDIDATES

    WESTERN DIVISION SALES MANAGER


    Western Division Sales Mgr
    CURRENT POSITION

    Outstanding
    PRESENT PERFORMANCE

    Ready Now
    PROMOTION POTENTIAL

    SHARON GREEN GEORGE WEI HARRY SHOW TRAVIS WOOD

    Western Oregon Sales Manager N. California Sales Manager Idaho/Utah Sales Manager Seattle Area Sales Manager

    Outstanding Outstanding Satisfactory Satisfactory

    Ready Now Needs Training Needs Training Questionable

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------

    HUMAN RESOURCE INFORMATION SYSTEMS (HRIS)


    PERSONAL DATA Age, Gender, Dependents, Marital status, etc EDUCATION & SKILLS Degrees earned, Licenses, Certifications Languages spoken, Specialty skills Ability/knowledge to operate specific machines/equipment/software JOB HISTORY Job Titles held, Location in Company, Time in each position, etc. Performance appraisals, Promotions received, Training & Development MEMBERSHIPS & ACHIEVEMENTS Professional Associations, Recognition and Notable accomplishments PREFERENCES & INTERESTS Career goals, Types of positions sought Geographic preferences CAPACITY FOR GROWTH Potential for advancement, upward mobility and growth in the company

    Transition Matrix
    Example for an Auto Parts Manufacturer

    MARKOV ANALYSIS
    (STATISTICAL REPLACEMENT ANALYSIS)

    TO: FROM: TOP TOP MID LOW SKILL .80 .10 MID .02 .76 .06

    A TRANSITION MATRIX LOW SKILLED ASSY EXIT .18 .04 .78 .01 .01 .84 .10 .15 .15

    ASSY

    .05 .88 .07 ------------------------------------------

    MARKOV ANALYSIS 2
    (Captures effects of internal transfers)

    (Start = 3500) FROM/ TO: TOP 100 MID LOW 200 600

    TOP .80 .10

    A TRANSITION MATRIX MID LOW SKILLED .02 .76 .06 .04 .78 .01 .01 .84

    ASSY

    EXIT .18 .10 .15 .15

    SKILL 600

    ASSY 2000 .05 .88 .07 ---------------------------------------------------------

    END YR WITH:
    NEED RECRUITS ? NEED LAYOFFS ?

    100
    0

    190
    10

    482
    118

    610
    (10)*

    1760
    240*

    [358 left]
    368 tot (10) tot

    KEEP STABLE 100

    200

    600

    600

    2000 = 3500 Tot

    MARKOV ANALYSIS 3
    (Anticipates Changes in Employment Levels)

    Employment needs are changing. We need a 10% increase in skilled workers (660), and a 15% decrease in assembly workers (1700) by years end. ------------------------------------------------------(Start = 3500) A TRANSITION MATRIX FROM/ TO: TOP MID LOW SKILLED ASSY EXIT TOP 100 .80 .02 .18 MID 200 .10 .76 .04 .10 LOW 600 .06 .78 .01 .15 SKILL 600 .01 .84 .15 ASSY 2000 .05 .88 .07 --------------------------------------------------------END YR WITH:
    NEED RECRUITS ? NEED LAYOFFS ?

    100
    0

    190
    10

    482
    118

    610
    50*

    1760
    (60)*

    [358 left]

    NEW LEVELS 100

    200

    600

    600

    1700 = 3260 tot

    Determining Labor Surplus or Shortage


    Based on the forecasts for labor demand and supply, the planner can compare the figures to determine whether there will be a shortage or surplus of labor for each job category. Determining expected shortages and surpluses allows the organization to plan how to address these challenges.

    PERSONNEL / YIELD RATIOS


    Past experience has developed these yield ratios for recruiting a Cost Accountant:

    FOR EVERY 12 APPLICATIONS RECEIVED, ONLY 1 LOOKS PROMISING ENOUGH TO INVITE FOR AN INTERVIEW OF EVERY 5 PERSONS INTERVIEWED, ONLY 1 IS ACTUALLY OFFERED A POSITION IN THE ORGANIZATION OF EVERY 3 JOB OFFERS MADE, ONLY 2 ACCEPT THE POSITION OF EVERY 10 NEW WORKERS WHO BEGIN THE TRAINING PROGRAM, ONLY 9 SUCCESSFULLY COMPLETE THE PROGRAM THUS: 100 APPLICATIONS MUST BE RECEIVED, so that 8.33 JOB INTERVIEWS CAN BE HELD, so that 1.67 JOB OFFERS CAN BE MADE, and 1.11 PEOPLE MUST BE TRAINED, so that we get ONE NEW COST ACCOUNTANT!!!

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