Human Resource Planning: Forecasting HR Requirements (Trying To Predict Future Staffing Needs)

HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING
FORECASTING HR REQUIREMENTS (DEMAND ANALYSIS)

(Trying to predict future staffing needs)
Managerial Estimates
Sales Projections
Simulations
Vacancy Analysis (projected turnover)
FORECASTING HR AVAILABILITY (SUPPLY ANALYSIS)

(Predicting worker flows and availabilities)
Succession or Replacement Charts
Skills Inventories (use of HRIS)
Labor Market Analysis
Markov Analysis (Transition Matrix)
Personnel Ratios
CORRELATIONS/PROJECTIONS
SIZE OF HOSPITAL NUMBER OF NURSES
200 240
300 260
400 470
500 500
600 620
700 660
800 820
900 860
SIMULATION MODEL/REGRESSION FORECAST
TARGET STORES STAFFING FORECAST
MODEL
Y = 8 + .0011(X1) + .00004(X2) + .02(X3)
Y = Number of employees needed to staff the store

X1 = Square feet of sales space
X2 = Population of metropolitan area
X3 = Projected annual sales volume in millions of dollars
Y = 8 + .0011(50,000sq ft) + .00004(250,000popul) + .02($150 million)
Y = 8 + 55 + 10 + 3
Y = 76 employees needed at this store

VACANCY ANALYSIS
(HISTORIC DEPARTURES)
LEVEL # EMPL TURN % Expected Vacancies Expected to Remain
TOP MGMT 100 20 % 20 80
MID MGMT 200 24 % 48 152
LOW MGMT 600 22 % 132 468
SKILLED W 600 16% 96 504
ASSY WKRS 2000 12 % 240 1760
TOTALS 3500 536 2964
AVERAGE TURNOVER PERCENTAGE = 536 / 3500 = .1531

SUCCESSION PLANNING
REPLACEMENT CHART
FOR EXECUTIVE POSITIONS
POSITION REPLACEMENT CARDS

FOR EACH INDIVIDUAL POSITION
------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION WESTERN DIVISION SALES MANAGER
DANIEL BEALER Western Division Sales Mgr Outstanding Ready Now
PRESENT PROMOTION
POSSIBLE CANDIDATES CURRENT POSITION PERFORMANCE POTENTIAL
SHARON GREEN Western Oregon Sales Manager Outstanding

Ready Now
GEORGE WEI N. California Sales Manager Outstanding
Needs Training
HARRY SHOW Idaho/Utah Sales Manager Satisfactory Needs Training
TRAVIS WOOD Seattle Area Sales Manager Satisfactory Questionable
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
HUMAN RESOURCE INFORMATION SYSTEMS
(HRIS)
PERSONAL DATA
Age, Gender, Dependents, Marital status, etc
EDUCATION & SKILLS
Degrees earned, Licenses, Certifications
Languages spoken, Specialty skills
Ability/knowledge to operate specific machines/equipment/software
JOB HISTORY
Job Titles held, Location in Company, Time in each position, etc.
Performance appraisals, Promotions received, Training & Development
MEMBERSHIPS & ACHIEVEMENTS
Professional Associations, Recognition and Notable accomplishments
PREFERENCES & INTERESTS
Career goals, Types of positions sought
Geographic preferences
CAPACITY FOR GROWTH
Potential for advancement, upward mobility and growth in the company
MARKOV ANALYSIS
(STATISTICAL REPLACEMENT ANALYSIS)
TO:  A TRANSITION MATRIX

FROM:
TOP MID LOW SKILLED ASSY EXIT
TOP .80 .02 .18
MID .10 .76 .04 .10
LOW .06 .78 .01 .15
SKILL .01 .84 .15
ASSY .05 .88 .07

------------------------------------------
MARKOV ANALYSIS – 2
(Captures effects of internal transfers)
(Start = 3500) A TRANSITION MATRIX

FROM/ TO:  TOP MID LOW SKILLED ASSY EXIT
TOP 100 .80 .02 .18
MID 200 .10 .76 .04 .10
LOW 600 .06 .78 .01 .15
SKILL 600 .01 .84 .15
ASSY 2000 .05 .88 .07

---------------------------------------------------------
END YR WITH: 100 190 482 610 1760 [358 left]
NEED RECRUITS ? 0 10 118 240* 368 tot
NEED LAYOFFS ? (10)* (10) tot
KEEP STABLE 100 200 600 600 2000 = 3500 Tot
MARKOV ANALYSIS – 3
(Anticipates Changes in Employment Levels)
Employment needs are changing. We need a 10% increase in skilled workers

(660), and a 15% decrease in assembly workers (1700) by year’s end.
-------------------------------------------------------
(Start = 3500) A TRANSITION MATRIX
FROM/ TO:  TOP MID LOW SKILLED ASSY EXIT
TOP 100 .80 .02 .18
MID 200 .10 .76 .04 .10
LOW 600 .06 .78 .01 .15
SKILL 600 .01 .84 .15
ASSY 2000 .05 .88 .07
---------------------------------------------------------
END YR WITH: 100 190 482 610 1760 [358 left]
NEED RECRUITS ? 0 10 118 50*
NEED LAYOFFS ? (60)*
NEW LEVELS 100 200 600 600 1700 = 3260 tot
PERSONNEL RATIOS
Past experience has developed these ratios for recruiting a Cost Accountant:
FOR EVERY 12 APPLICATIONS RECEIVED, ONLY 1 LOOKS

PROMISING ENOUGH TO INVITE FOR AN INTERVIEW
OF EVERY 5 PERSONS INTERVIEWED, ONLY 1 IS ACTUALLY

OFFERED A POSITION IN THE ORGANIZATION
OF EVERY 3 JOB OFFERS MADE, ONLY 2 ACCEPT THE POSITION
OF EVERY 10 NEW WORKERS WHO BEGIN THE TRAINING

PROGRAM, ONLY 9 SUCCESSFULLY COMPLETE THE PROGRAM
THUS: 100 APPLICATIONS MUST BE RECEIVED, so that

8.33 JOB INTERVIEWS CAN BE HELD, so that
1.67 JOB OFFERS CAN BE MADE, and
1.11 PEOPLE MUST BE TRAINED, so that we get
ONE NEW COST ACCOUNTANT!!!

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HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING

FORECASTING HR REQUIREMENTS (DEMAND ANALYSIS)

FORECASTING HR AVAILABILITY (SUPPLY ANALYSIS)

SIZE OF HOSPITAL NUMBER OF NURSES

TARGET STORES STAFFING FORECAST

Y = Number of employees needed to staff the store

Y = 8 + .0011(50,000sq ft) + .00004(250,000popul) + .02($150 million)

Y = 76 employees needed at this store

LEVEL # EMPL TURN % Expected Vacancies Expected to Remain

TOP MGMT 100 20 % 20 80

MID MGMT 200 24 % 48 152

LOW MGMT 600 22 % 132 468

SKILLED W 600 16% 96 504

ASSY WKRS 2000 12 % 240 1760

TOTALS 3500 536 2964

AVERAGE TURNOVER PERCENTAGE = 536 / 3500 = .1531

POSITION REPLACEMENT CARDS

DANIEL BEALER Western Division Sales Mgr Outstanding Ready Now

SHARON GREEN Western Oregon Sales Manager Outstanding

TO:  A TRANSITION MATRIX

TOP .80 .02 .18

MID .10 .76 .04 .10

LOW .06 .78 .01 .15

SKILL .01 .84 .15

ASSY .05 .88 .07

(Start = 3500) A TRANSITION MATRIX

MID 200 .10 .76 .04 .10

LOW 600 .06 .78 .01 .15

SKILL 600 .01 .84 .15

ASSY 2000 .05 .88 .07

Employment needs are changing. We need a 10% increase in skilled workers

FOR EVERY 12 APPLICATIONS RECEIVED, ONLY 1 LOOKS

OF EVERY 5 PERSONS INTERVIEWED, ONLY 1 IS ACTUALLY

OF EVERY 3 JOB OFFERS MADE, ONLY 2 ACCEPT THE POSITION

OF EVERY 10 NEW WORKERS WHO BEGIN THE TRAINING

THUS: 100 APPLICATIONS MUST BE RECEIVED, so that

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