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    (A) P (Disaster Year) P (ABC)

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    georgelennon68
    The document defines probabilities of flooding events A, B, and C occurring in three named towns. It provides the individual probabilities of P(A), P(B), P(C) and conditional probabilities P(B|C), P(A|BC), P(AB|C). It then calculates: 1) The probability of a disaster year with all towns flooded, P(ABC), as 0.048 2) The probability of C occurring given B occurred, P(C|B), as 0.2 3) The probability of at least one town flooding, P(A∪B∪C), as 0.19 using De Morgan's rule.

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    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    (A) P (Disaster Year) P (ABC)

    Uploaded by

    georgelennon68
    9 views1 page
    The document defines probabilities of flooding events A, B, and C occurring in three named towns. It provides the individual probabilities of P(A), P(B), P(C) and conditional probabilities P(B|C), P(A|BC), P(AB|C). It then calculates: 1) The probability of a disaster year with all towns flooded, P(ABC), as 0.048 2) The probability of C occurring given B occurred, P(C|B), as 0.2 3) The probability of at least one town flooding, P(A∪B∪C), as 0.19 using De Morgan's rule.

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    2.12

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    The document defines probabilities of flooding events A, B, and C occurring in three named towns. It provides the individual probabilities of P(A), P(B), P(C) and conditional probabilities P(B|C), P(A|BC), P(AB|C). It then calculates: 1) The probability of a disaster year with all towns flooded, P(ABC), as 0.048 2) The probability of C occurring given B occurred, P(C|B), as 0.2 3) The probability of at least one town flooding, P(A∪B∪C), as 0.19 using De Morgan's rule.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    9 views1 page

    (A) P (Disaster Year) P (ABC)

    Uploaded by

    georgelennon68
    The document defines probabilities of flooding events A, B, and C occurring in three named towns. It provides the individual probabilities of P(A), P(B), P(C) and conditional probabilities P(B|C), P(A|BC), P(AB|C). It then calculates: 1) The probability of a disaster year with all towns flooded, P(ABC), as 0.048 2) The probability of C occurring given B occurred, P(C|B), as 0.2 3) The probability of at least one town flooding, P(A∪B∪C), as 0.19 using De Morgan's rule.

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    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    2.12 Let A,B,C denote the respective events that the named towns are flooded.

    Given probabilities: P(A) = 0.2, P(B) = 0.3, P(C) = 0.1, P(B | C) = 0.6, P(A | BC) = 0.8, P( AB | C ) = 0.9, where an overbar

    denotes compliment of an event.

    (a) P(disaster year) = P(ABC)


    = P(A | BC)P(BC) = P(A | BC)P(B | C)P(C) = 0.80.60.1 = 0.048 (b) P(C | B) = P(BC) / P(B) = P(B | C)P(C) / P(B) = 0.60.10.3 = 0.2 (c) The event of interest is ABC. Since this is the union of many items, we can work with its compliment instead, allowing us to apply De Morgans rule and rewrite as P(ABC) = 1 P( A B C ) = 1 P( ABC ) = 1 P( AB | C )P( C ) = 1 0.9(1 0.1) = 1 0.81 = 0.19 by De Morgans rule,

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