Pan Atlantic 53rd Omnibus Poll - Spring 2014

THE PAN ATLANTIC SMS GROUP 53rd OMNIBUS POLL
The Benchmark of Maine Public Opinion
Spring 2014
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6 City Center, Suite 200, Portland, Maine 04101 207-871-8622 www.panatlanticsmsgroup.com
Most Accurate Pollster on Maines 2010 Gubernatorial Race Maines Best Pollster 2008
Closest in predicting the actual results of the Governors race and the 1st Congressional District race in 2010 2012 Elections: Most accurate polls on Presidential and CD1 and CD2 elections.
The 53rd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll
Table of Contents
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I. Background..... II. Methodology...... III. Poll Results ............ IV. Poll Demographic Profile ..
3 4 6 29
Pan Atlantic SMS Group 53rd Omnibus Poll April, 2014
I. Background
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PAN ATLANTIC SMS GROUP
Pan Atlantic SMS Group is a Maine-based, independent marketing research and consulting firm which is currently in its 29th year of successful operation. This Omnibus Poll is the 53rd poll in a series conducted by Pan Atlantic SMS Group on public policy, business, economic, technology, and lifestyle issues. Because we have conducted this poll on a frequent basis over a long time period (since 1996), we are in a unique position to provide reliable benchmarking on a range of important issues. Media use of the information contained in the Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll must identify the source of information. All questions reported on herein are non-proprietary and were not commissioned by any party other than Pan Atlantic SMS Group. For further information, please contact Patrick O. Murphy, President of Pan Atlantic SMS Group, at (207) 871-8622 or by email at pmurphy@panatlanticsmsgroup.com.
II. Methodology
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The 53rd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll was conducted between March 31st and April 5th, 2014. This independent survey data is being released to the Maine media in the public interest. A randomly selected, stratified statewide sample of 400 Maine residents was interviewed by telephone. Each of Maines two Congressional Districts are represented by approximately half of the sample. The survey was administered only to those who fulfilled the following criteria:
Are ages 18 and older

Do not, nor does anyone in their household, work for a market research, advertising or media firm Describe themselves as very or somewhat likely to vote in the 2014 elections
This independent poll was conducted by telephone, at our in-house interviewing center, by Pan Atlantics team of experienced interviewers. No outside interviewer resources were used. The sample used comprised a mix of land and cell phones so as to ensure as representative a sample as possible. Data were weighted according to the eligible voting population to ensure representative age segment distribution.
II. Methodology
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It should be noted that figures may not always equal 100.0 percent due to the rounding of decimals. The sample was stratified statewide based on the U.S. Census of Population and Housing data. The sample size has statistical significance of 4.9 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. This means that if the survey were to be repeated, 95 times out of 100 the results would reflect the results of this survey within the 4.9 percent margin of error. The results are broken out by various demographic subsamples, including Congressional District, political party affiliation, age, income level and gender. The margins of error for each of the two individual CDs is 6.9 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. Finally, we note that as with all surveys, these results are indicative of public opinion at a singular point in time.
POLL RESULTS
ECONOMY
While a small majority of Mainers still feel that the state is headed in the wrong direction (45.2%), they are showing a somewhat higher level of confidence in the direction of the State (41.1% Right direction).
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[Options rotated; n=400]
In general, do you think that the State of Maine is headed in the right direction or the wrong direction?
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Sept. '07 Right Direction 35.0% 21.5% 41.1% 40.4% 31.0% 37.3% Wrong Direction 48.0% 60.0% 41.6% 41.6% 51.0% 48.3% Don't know 17.0% 18.5% 17.2% 18.0% 18.0% 14.5% Feb. '05 Aug. '05 Mar. '06 July '06 May '07
June '08 Apr. '09 Oct. '09 May '10 May '11 Mar. '13 Nov. '13 Apr. '14 23.0% 32.0% 34.2% 28.3% 29.4% 37.7% 38.9% 41.1% 59.8% 49.8% 51.1% 50.8% 57.1% 46.9% 48.5% 45.2% 17.3% 18.3% 14.7% 21.0% 13.5% 15.4% 12.6% 13.7%
Republicans in particular hold a more favorable view of the States direction (53.5% Right direction versus 45.2% for Independents and 27.2% for Democrats).
Residents of Northern / Down East counties are less confident in the States direction (34.8% Right direction) than those in Southern (41.2%) or Central / Western counties (46.6%).
Jobs / Unemployment and the Economy in general continue to be viewed as the most important issues facing the State.
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[Unaided; n=400]
What do you think is the most important issue facing the State of Maine today?
Jobs/Unemployment Economy in general Accessibility/Cost of health care
16.8%
11.0% 7.5% 5.8% 3.6% 3.4% 1.8% 0.6% 18.8% 1.6% 28.9%
Education
Balancing the state budget Need for tax reform High level of taxes Cost of living Crime/Drugs/Violence Other Unsure
The issue of Jobs / Unemployment is most important to Independents (34.5%) relative to Republicans (28.7%) and Democrats (23.1%).
The importance of Economy in general has increased since November 2013 by 4.1 percentage points.
More than half of Mainers expect that their household economic situation will remain stagnant this year.
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Compared to 2013, for the year 2014, do you believe that your household economic situation will:
Stay the same 54.0%
Worsen 20.0% Improve 25.0% Unsure/ Other 1.0%
Mainers are a little more optimistic regarding their own household economic situation than that recorded in the last Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll. The proportion anticipating improvements in their household economic situation has increased from 20.6% in November 2013 to 25.0% in the current poll.
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NATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY
54.5% of Mainers disapprove of the way President Obama is handling his job. However, his approval levels have increased by 4.8 percentage points since our November, 2013 poll to the current level of 41.0%.
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Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Obama is handling his job?
Approval by Political Affiliation 63.8%, Democrats

Approve 41.0% Disapprove 54.5%
(A 4.9 percentage point increase since November, 2013)
38.3%, Independents
(A 1.1 percentage point increase since November, 2013)
17.8%, Republicans
(An 8.2 percentage point increase since November, 2013)
Unsure/ No answer 4.5%

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MAINE PUBLIC POLICY
Susan Collins continues to have the highest favorability level of several Maine politicians / political figures (tested).
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Im going to read you the names of some people involved in public life in Maine. For each person, I would like you to tell me if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of them. If you arent familiar with that person, just say so.
Very favorable Somewhat favorable
21.9%
Somewhat Unfavorable
23.4% 15.7%
Very Unfavorable
Don't know / Not familiar

36.9% 2.1%
Paul LePage Mike Michaud Eliot Cutler Susan Collins

9.0%
21.8%
34.3%
18.7%
11.2%
14.0%
34.8%
16.7%
8.3%
31.2%
43.9%
35.5%
11.3%
4.6% 4.7%
Shenna Bellows 2.9% 4.2%

5.1%
2.5%
85.3%
Susan Collins continues to have the highest favorability level of several Maine politicians / political figures (tested).
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Highlights Senator Collins has an overall favorability level of 79.4%. Representative Mike Michaud (56.1%) continues to hold a strong lead in favorability over Governor Paul LePage (45.3%), and also Independent candidate for Governor Eliot Cutler (43.8%). Seven in ten Republicans (70.2%) have a favorable opinion of Gov. Paul LePage, compared to 19.7% of Democrats and 50.6% of Independents. Gov. LePages support among Independents has increased by 10.5 points since Pan Atlantics November 2013 poll. Gov. LePage has a much higher favorability level in District 2 than in District 1 (51.9% vs. 38.6%). Males (53.0%) also view him more favorably than females (37.6%). Eliot Cutler (I) has an overall favorability level of 43.8%, an increase of 5.3 points since the November 2013 poll. 31.2% are not familiar with or are unsure of their opinion of gubernatorial candidate Cutler, a decline of only 3.0 points since November.
At this point, the gubernatorial race is essentially a dead heat with only 1.3% separating Paul LePage and Mike Michaud. Eliot Cutler is in third place with 20.3% of the anticipated vote.
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Mainers will vote for Governor in the November, 2014 elections. If the election were held today, assuming the candidates are Independent Eliot Cutler, Republican Paul LePage, and Democrat Mike Michaud, who would you vote for? [For those who answered Dont know:] Among those candidates, which one are you leaning towards voting for if the elections were today?
40% 1.7% 2.1%
Note: Lighter colors represent leaning voters.
30%
20%
36.9%
35.2%
1.3%
10%
19.1%
3.7%
0%
Paul LePage
Mike Michaud
Eliot Cutler
None of the above/ Refused
April, Totals: 2014

Nov., 2013
38.6%
36.0%
37.3%
37.3%
20.3%
18.3%
3.7%
8.5%
Gubernatorial Race Breakdown by Political Party

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Democratic Voters
None of the above/ Refused 1.3%
Independent Voters
Republican Voters
Michaud 18.7%
Cutler 21.5% Michaud 61.8% LePage 15.4%
Michaud 28.5% Cutler 26.7%
Cutler 12.0%
LePage 38.7%
LePage 67.3%
Note: Percentages include Voting and Leaning totals combined.

Gubernatorial Race Breakdown by Gender and Congressional District

Female
Cutler 24.5% LePage 29.4%
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Male
Michaud 32.1%

Cutler 16.2%
Michaud 42.5%
LePage 47.8%
Note: Percentages include Voting and Leaning totals combined.
CD 1
Cutler 21.9% LePage 34.1%
CD 2
Michaud 34.8% LePage 43.0% Michaud 39.9% Pan Atlantic SMS Group 53rd Omnibus Poll April, 2014 Cutler 18.8%
A strong majority of respondents tend to ascribe the attributes listed below to their candidate of choice.
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Im going to read you some phrases, and regardless of which candidate you support, Id like you to tell me whether you think each one best describes Democrat Mike Michaud, Republican Paul LePage, or Independent Eliot Cutler.
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Has the right experience to be Governor Understands the problems facing the middle class. Understands how state government works Is a leader
36.9% 38.1% 34.0% 34.4% 34.0%
38.9% 36.4% 40.8% 36.6% 27.2% 17.5%
14.9% 15.1% 12.5% 16.4%
9.3% 10.3% 12.8% 12.7%
Understands how to get jobs created in the state
21.3%
Paul LePage
Biggest Differentiators
Mike Michaud
Eliot Cutler
Don't know
40.8% of respondents believe that Mike Michaud best understands how state government works.
34.0% of respondents believe that Paul LePage best understands how to get jobs created in the state.
Among Cutler supporters, Michaud supporters, and undecided voters, almost two thirds (64.7%) believe that Mike Michaud has the best chance of defeating Paul LePage in the gubernatorial election.
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[Options rotated; Asked of those undecided or supporting Michaud or Cutler; n=246]
Regardless of which candidate you support, Id like you to tell me whether you think this phrase best describes Democrat Mike Michaud or Independent Eliot Cutler: Has the best chance of beating Paul LePage
Mike Michaud 64.7%
Eliot Cutler 21.5% Don't know 13.9%
Among those who plan on voting for Eliot Cutler, about half (50.3%) believe that he has the best chance of beating Paul LePage. The comparable figure for Mike Michaud supporters is 84.9% (believe he has the best chance of beating Paul LePage).
A majority of respondents disapprove of Governor LePages job performance 46.6% approve and 52.2% disapprove.
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Governor Paul LePage has been in office for almost three years. Do you approve or disapprove of his job performance? Is that strongly or somewhat?
Approval of Job Performance of Governor LePage April 2014 Approval of Job Performance of Governor LePage November 2013 Approval of Job Performance of Governor LePage March 2013
60%
50.9%
60%
52.2% 47.6%
Strongly 21.0%
60%
52.9% 46.6%
Strongly 20.5%
50% 40%
50% 40%
50%
43.4%
40% 30% 20%
30% 20% 10% 0%
Strongly 36.0%
30% 20%
Strongly 36.5%
Strongly 31.8%
Strongly 15.1%
Somewhat 14.9%
Somewhat 26.6%
10%
1.5%
Somewhat 15.7%
Somewhat 26.1%
S omewhat
10%
1.2%
S omewhat
28.3%
21.1%
3.7%
Approve overall Don't know / Refused
0%
Disapprove overall Approve overall Don't know / Refused Disapprove overall Approve overall Don't know / Refused
0%
Disapprove overall
68.7% of Republicans, 52.2% of Independents, and 26.1% of Democrats approve of Governor LePages job performance.
Results are mixed in terms of respondents choice of who is doing the most to help the State get ahead.
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From a policy perspective, who do you think is doing the most to help the state get ahead?
30% 20% 10% 0%
29.4%
28.3% 21.1% 14.4% 6.7%
Our Governor Paul Legislative congressional LePage leaders in the delegation state capital
Don't know
None of the above
In District 1, a third of respondents (33.2%) selected our congressional delegation. In District 2, a third of respondents (33.4%) selected Governor Paul LePage. It should be noted that 21.1% of the sample did not provide an answer on this question.
A slight plurality of respondents say they plan to vote no on the bear-baiting ballot initiative, thus continuing to allow the use of baiting, trapping, and dogs in the hunting of bears in Maine.
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[n=400]
Now I want to ask you about a ballot initiative that will be on the November ballot in Maine. This initiative has to do with bear hunting practices in Maine. Do you want to make it a crime to hunt bears with bait, traps or dogs, except to protect proper ty, public safety, or for research?
Based on this question, if the election was held today, would you vote yes to make it a crime to use baiting, trapping and dogs in the hunting of bears, or would you vote no to continue to allow the use of baiting, trapping and dogs in the hunting of bears in Maine?
Citizens residing in CD1 are more likely to vote yes (50.3%) than those in CD2 (43.1%).
Vote No 48.1%
Vote Yes 46.7%
Don't Know/ Refused 5.3%
Democrats (64.9%) and females (56.3%) are more likely to vote yes, thus banning the use of baiting, trapping, and dogs in the hunting of bears in Maine.
A vast majority of Mainers (85.2%) prefer the use of waste-toenergy plants versus landfills (6.2%) to dispose of solid waste.
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A sanitary landfill is a facility where solid waste is compacted and stored indefinitely, while a waste-to-energy plant involves the processing of solid waste to produce electricity, which is then used by households and businesses. Which of those two methods of solid waste disposal do you prefer?
Younger Mainers have the highest support level for waste processing facilities over landfills.
90.6%
Waste processing facilities 85.2% Don't know/ Refused 8.6%
89.4%
77.6%
18 to 34
35 to 54
55+
Landfills 6.2%
Support for waste-to-energy plants has increased by 6.0 percentage points since Pan Atlantic SMS Groups March 2013 Omnibus Poll.
A slight majority of Mainers (48.5% versus 45.7%) believe that the legislature was correct in attempting to expand MaineCare coverage.
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The most recent legislature passed a bill to expand MaineCare to 70,000 Maine families that do not have health care coverage. The Governor, in turn, vetoed the bill, saying that we couldnt afford the expense. Whose position aligns more closely with your own?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Statement A: The Governor was correct to veto the bill because we cannot afford the expense Statement B: The legislature was correct that MaineCare coverage should be provided to these 70,000 families.
45.7%
48.5%
Dont know
5.1%
Female respondents were more likely to prefer position B by a margin of 56.4% to 40.6% (males).
Refused
0.7%
Three quarters of respondents (75.7%) feel that their elected officials vote on the issue of MaineCare expansion will be somewhat or very important in their decision making for the November elections.
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[n=400]
Regardless of whether you support or oppose MaineCare expansion, how important will your elected officials vote on this issue be to your decision on whether to vote for that person in November?
Very important Somewhat important Not very important Not at all important Don't know
45.2%
30.5%
4.5%
15.4%
4.4%
This issue is considered of similar importance across all parties/voting groups: 77.6% of Democrats, 75.8% of Republicans, and 73.7% of Independents consider the issue a somewhat or very important determinant in their voting decision. Intensity of support is positively correlated with age51.0% of respondents of age 55 or older consider the issue very important, compared with 44.4% of those age 35-54 and 37.5% of those age 18-34.
A majority of Mainers feel that Statement A below comes closest to reflecting their values.
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Which of the following statements comes closest to reflecting your values?

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Statement A: Welfare fraud is rampant in Maine, and we need to crack down on its abuse
Statement B: People are struggling economically and we need to help those in need
55.0%
40.7%
Dont know
3.6%
Refused
0.7%
80.8% of Paul LePages supporters feel that Statement A comes closest to reflecting their values, while only 33.8% of Mike Michauds supporters chose Statement A over B.
By almost a 2:1 margin (62.4% vs. 33.8%), Mainers want their elected officials to work with the other side, even if that means allowing compromise on core values.
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I am going to read you two statements about the role of government, and Id like to know which one comes closer to your point of view Statement A: I want my elected official to stand firm and not allow compromise on core values
Don't know 3.8% Statement A 33.8%
Statement B: I want my elected official to work with the other side, even if that means allowing compromise on core values.
77.9% of Democrats agree with Statement B, promoting compromise, versus 18.0% who support Statement A.
Statement B 62.4%
In contrast, only 44.0% of Republicans agree with Statement B versus 51.8% who support Statement A. 61.9% of Independents support Statement B versus 35.5% who support Statement A.
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POLL DEMOGRAPHIC DATA
Poll Demographic Data

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CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT CD1 CD2 POLITICAL AFFILIATION Democrats Republicans Independents / Unenrolled Other / Refused 33.5% 29.8% 35.8% 1.0% 48.5% 51.5%
AGE 18 to 34 35 to 54 55+ GENDER Female Male 2013 HOUSEHOLD INCOME 51.2% 48.8% 16.0% 47.3% 36.8%
$50,000 or less $50,000 to <$75,000

$75,000 or more Prefer not to answer
34.5% 17.5% 38.8% 9.3%
Note: The above figures show the sample demographics prior to weighting. Survey responses were weighted to better represent Maines age distribution.
6 City Center, Suite 200, Portland, Maine www.panatlanticsmsgroup.com 207.871.8622
31
Most Accurate Pollster on Maines 2010 Gubernatorial Race Maines Best Pollster 2008
Closest in predicting the actual results of the Governors race and the 1st Congressional District race in 2010 2012 Elections: Most accurate polls on Presidential and CD1 and CD2 elections.

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THE PAN ATLANTIC SMS GROUP 53rd OMNIBUS POLL

The Benchmark of Maine Public Opinion

The 53rd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

Pan Atlantic SMS Group 53rd Omnibus Poll April, 2014

The 53rd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

PAN ATLANTIC SMS GROUP

Pan Atlantic SMS Group 53rd Omnibus Poll April, 2014

The 53rd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

PAN ATLANTIC SMS GROUP

Are ages 18 and older

Pan Atlantic SMS Group 53rd Omnibus Poll April, 2014

The 53rd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

PAN ATLANTIC SMS GROUP

Pan Atlantic SMS Group 53rd Omnibus Poll April, 2014

The 53rd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

Pan Atlantic SMS Group 53rd Omnibus Poll April, 2014

The 53rd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

Pan Atlantic SMS Group 53rd Omnibus Poll April, 2014

The 53rd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

Pan Atlantic SMS Group 53rd Omnibus Poll April, 2014

The 53rd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

Pan Atlantic SMS Group 53rd Omnibus Poll April, 2014

The 53rd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

Stay the same 54.0%

Worsen 20.0% Improve 25.0% Unsure/ Other 1.0%

Pan Atlantic SMS Group 53rd Omnibus Poll April, 2014

The 53rd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

NATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY

Pan Atlantic SMS Group 53rd Omnibus Poll April, 2014

The 53rd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

Approval by Political Affiliation 63.8%, Democrats

Unsure/ No answer 4.5%

The 53rd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

MAINE PUBLIC POLICY

Pan Atlantic SMS Group 53rd Omnibus Poll April, 2014

The 53rd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

Don't know / Not familiar

Paul LePage Mike Michaud Eliot Cutler Susan Collins

Shenna Bellows 2.9% 4.2%

Pan Atlantic SMS Group 53rd Omnibus Poll April, 2014

The 53rd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

The 53rd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

[Options rotated; n=400]

None of the above/ Refused

April, Totals: 2014

Pan Atlantic SMS Group 53rd Omnibus Poll April, 2014

The 53rd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

Gubernatorial Race Breakdown by Political Party

Cutler 21.5% Michaud 61.8% LePage 15.4%

Michaud 28.5% Cutler 26.7%

Note: Percentages include Voting and Leaning totals combined.

The 53rd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

Gubernatorial Race Breakdown by Gender and Congressional District

[Options rotated; n=400]

None of the above/ Refused 3.9%

None of the above/ Refused 3.7%

Note: Percentages include Voting and Leaning totals combined.

None of the above/ Refused 4.2%

None of the above/ Refused 3.4%

The 53rd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll