‘wsoz018 Endogenous ard Exogenaus Variables
RED SPOTS
Topic: Endogenous and Exogenous Variables
Some economic variables are determined by our models, while others are usually assumed
to be determined by factors outside of our models. We call the former endogenous
variables and the latter exogenous variables.
For econometric applications, the crucial difference between an endogenous and an
exogenous variable is that we must assume that exogenous variables are not systematically
affected by changes in the other variables of the model, especially by changes in the
endogenous variables.
For example, if we are modeling the individual supply of corn produced in a year by
Farmer Jones, the endogenous (or dependent) variable would probably be the amount of
corn sold. This is the "output" of our economic model of Farmer Jones's production
decision. The "inputs" would be the explanatory variables that influence the amount he
sells, which might include the market price and the amount of rain that falls during the
summer.
Can these inputs to the model be safely treated as exogenous variables? In this case, the
answer is probably yes. Suppose that something (other than price or rainfall) were to cause
Farmer Jones's production to be higher than normal (perhaps an unexpectedly good
application of fertilizer). To decide whether the "input" variables are exogenous, we would
have to determine whether this increase in production would cause them to change.
A rise in Jones's production will have no effect on the weather, so it seems safe to judge
rainfall to be an exogenous variable. Com prices could be a more difficult question.
However, since Jones is only a microscopic part of the U.S, corn market, it seems likely
that any imaginable increase in his production would have no discernable effect on the
market price. Thus price can probably also be treated as exogenous.
To see how the exogencity of an explanatory variables can be a difficult question, consider
a closely related model: the supply of corn produced in a year by all the farmers in the
state of Iowa. Once again, Iowa corn production would have no effect on the weather, so
rainfall is clearly exogenous. However, if lowa corn farmers increase their output
significantly it is very likely to lower the U.S. price of com. Thus, market price would be
an endogenous variable in this model.
The presence of endogenous variables as explanatory variables in our economic models
creates significant difficulties for estimating our model. For the present, we shall assume
that all of the explanatory variables in our models can safely be considered exogenous.
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