Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Foreign Exchange Risk Management
Foreign Exchange Risk Management
best practices:
Ex Ecu t i v E
S umm a ry
As the aftershocks of the credit crisis fade away, U.S. companies have
resumed their pursuit of global trade opportunities. Companies are
increasing production with overseas partners, importing and exporting
goods and services, and pursuing merger and acquisition opportunities.
Against this backdrop, more and more businesses are addressing their need
for strategic foreign exchange (FX) risk management.
The resurgence of foreign trade combined
with volatility in the global financial markets
heightens the importance of having a foreign
exchange risk management strategy in place.
After all, FX exposure can significantly influence
a companys accounting and economic activities
and affect the strength of its bottom line.
I n Te r n AT Io n Al bA n k In g
Why hedge?
A successful hedging program mutes
volatility in the value of earnings and
the cash generated overseas.
There is a common misperception that hedging is about making money. The
real purpose of a hedging program is to diminish volatility in earnings and
cash flow.
The growth of international trade, combined with the recent volatility
in global markets, has heightened the need for foreign exchange risk
management. but, while a hedging program should not be confused with
a profit center, an active yet prudent risk management plan can add value.
The reason: hedging allows managers to focus on maximizing the operating
value of their firm while minimizing the financial disruptions caused by
market fluctuations.
In fact, academic research by Allayannis and Weston (2001) concluded
that the hedging premium for public companies defined as a higher firm
value can be as much as five percent. It is not just public companies that
hedge; U.S. companies of all sizes now conduct business overseas, and
their numbers are growing.
According to the U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Reports1,
exports of U.S. goods and services in 2011 rose 14.5 percent to $2.103
trillion, up from $1.838 trillion in 2010. For the month of December
alone, U.S. exports of goods and services were 9.0 percent higher than in
December 2010 and imports increased 11.3 percent over that same period.
This pick-up in overseas activity amplifies not only the need for FX risk
management, but also the need for a successful program. Such programs
require a disciplined strategy to manage FX risk in an orderly manner,
and that begins with a defined methodology to understand and manage
the financial implications of your companys international operations and
expansion plans.
This report is issued by the Department of Commerces U.S. Census bureau and the bureau of economic Analysis.
identify risks
The first two exposures, forecast risk and revaluation risk, are transactional
in nature. They apply to the full cash and earnings cycle, running from the
initial budget to the final cash collections and payments.
With forecast risk, budgets are exposed to assumptions that need to be
made about the exchange rates that will be in effect as future foreign
revenues or expenses are generated. As the forecasts are replaced by
actual results, and the foreign receivables and payables are recorded on
the financial statements, the result of currency volatility is transaction
remeasurement risk that impacts current earnings.
The other two categories of FX risk foreign denominated cash risk and
earnings translation risk are translational.
The translation of a subsidiarys balance sheet is generally not a key risk
unless there is substantial foreign currency cash held at the subsidiary or
U N D ERSTANDING RI S K: T H E FO U R T Y P E S O F FX R I S K
TRANSACTIONAL RISK
Forecast
Risk
Cash Flow Hedging
Budget
TRANSLATIONAL RISK
Revaluation Risk
for Monetary Items
Balance Sheet Hedging
Sale/Expense
Foreign Denominated
Cash Risk
Balance Sheet Translation
Cash Flow
Earnings
Translation Risk
Income Statement Hedging
Use of Cash/
Repatriation
Translation at
Consolidation
Strategic/long term
Cash risk
Earnings risk
I n Te r n AT Ion A l bA n k In g
I n Te r n AT Io n Al bA n k In g
manage risk
As noted earlier, an approved policy for hedging program procedures
provides guidance for FX risk management.
While some questions may be related to control issues such as who can
hedge and how large of a trade will be allowed before additional approvals
are necessary four of the most important questions to address include:
When should a company hedge?
how much discretion should an FX policy permit?
how far out into the future should a company hedge?
What hedging tools should be utilized?
H E DGING ONCE A Y E AR
One-Year Back to Budget EUR Hedging Program
1.70
1.40
1.10
Spot
0.80
2/02
2/03
2/04
2/05
2/06
2/07
2/08
2/09
2/10
2/11
2/12
Source: Foreign Exchange Risk Management Best Practices, J.P. Morgan, February 2012.
A S MO OTH E R R IDE
One-Year Rolling EUR Hedging Program with Rolling and Layering
1.70
1.40
1.10
0.80
2/02
2/03
2/04
2/05
2/06
2/07
2/08
Spot
2/09
2/10
Source: Foreign Exchange Risk Management Best Practices, J.P. Morgan, February 2012.
2/11
2/12
GAIN ( LO SS ) O N H EDGE S O N LY
One-Year Hedging Program (%)
100%
% Hedged
Maximum Hedged
Minimum Hedged
Company Discretion to Hedge
75%
50%
25%
0%
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
M6
M7
Months
M8
M9 M10
M11
M12 M13
I n Te r n AT Ion A l bA n k In g
PURcHASED oPtionS
Unknown amount of
cash required to settle
remains unknown
vs.
The left bar chart below demonstrates that the forward contracts
settlement value can incur a loss when compared to the gain (or smaller
loss) recorded by using options.
In fact, if you include the earnings impact of the exposure plus the hedge in
this analysis, you get an even more interesting cumulative result. The point
here is not that options should always be chosen over forward contracts,
but rather we suggest that options have the ability to provide a much
better outcome than forward contracts over the long term and the longer
the hedge horizon, the more valuable the flexibility offered by options
becomes.
The bottom line is that when it comes to choosing between hedging with
forwards and hedging with options, forwards lock in a specific FX rate. yet,
it is important to note that options turned in the better performance over
this time period, as they were able to capture the markets upside.
Forwards
ATM Options
OTM Options
Underlying Result
Spot
1.60
1.55
10
1.50
1.45
2
1.40
0
6
1.35
-2
1.30
-4
-8
1.25
2
-6
1.20
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
1.15
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
options resulted in the better performance over this time period, as they
were able to capture the market's upside.
ConClUSIon
As more and more U.S. companies pursue overseas
business opportunities, their need for a well-managed
FX risk management policy increases. Such a policy can
protect both the bottom line and the continued strength
of the balance sheet that supports it.
A well-designed FX policy will clearly define the
procedures and goals of the risk management program.
It will also include:
A list of approved traders
Allowable hedge products
Expected frequency of trading
The amount of discretion that will be permitted
When a company has a well-documented FX policy, its
management team can focus on the pursuit of new
I n Te r n AT Ion A l bAn k I n g
1.37
1.37
1.32
Forward Rate.
1.32
1.27
1.27
1.22
1.22
1.22
1.27
1.32
1.37
ZERo-PREMiUM collARS
Zero-premium option based strategy
provides protection against adverse currency fluctuations, while
allowing for participation in favorable moves up to a predetermined
participation level
Ability to execute better than the current forward rate if the
market permits
Flexibility in setting range for protection and participation
best-case and worst-case scenarios are known upfront
Credit or cash collateral may be required
1.37
1.32
1.22
1.27
1.32
1.37
1.37
1.32
Protection Level
Protection Level
1.27
1.27
Participation Level
1.22
1.22
1.22
1.27
1.32
1.37
1.22
1.27
1.32
1.37
10
gloSSAry oF TerMS
Base currency: Foreign exchange is quoted as
the number of units of one currency needed to
buy or sell one unit of another currency. The
currency whose value is set at 1.00 is the base
currency.
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