Weekly Wrap: Investment Idea
Weekly Wrap: Investment Idea
Weekly Wrap: Investment Idea
Investment idea
Cairn India
Cairn a direct beneficiary of high crude prices and weak rupee September 14, 2012
Shareholding pattern June'12 Promoters Institutions Non promoter corp Public & others Share price chart
140 120 100 80 Sep-11 Cairn Sensex
Cairn India is a pure play on crude oil prices with operating margins of 80% and net margins of 60%. Any rise in crude oil prices directly flows to the bottom line. Furthermore, a weak INR helps profitability as the refiners are billed in USD. For every, US$5/bbl rise in crude prices Cairns EPS for FY13 will rise by 5.4%, while every Re1/US$ depreciation in INR EPS increases by 1.8%.
On the backdrop of a global slowdown, the demand for crude oil has been weak. Nevertheless, economies across the world through stimulus measures are trying to rev up the growth. Both Euro Zone and US have already announced measures to stimulate their economies. China too has been cutting interest rates and is planning to implement a few more stimulating measures. In such a scenario, the demand for crude oil will see an immediate bump up while supply will take time to catch up leading to spurt in crude prices.
Jan-12
May-12 Sep-12
Current production from the Cairn operated Rajsthan field is ~175,000bopd. The company has filed for various approvals to increase the production further. With Bhagyam production lower than the companys guidance, the government has apprehensions for giving further approvals. However, over the medium term, we expect the government to give approvals considering the rising imports of crude oil and its impact on the trade deficit.
boepd
Rajasthan Gross
Attractive awaited
valuations,
maiden
dividend
keenly
Cairn India currently trades at a P/E of 6x on FY14E EPS of `57.1. This is based on a production estimate of 200,000bopd in FY14, crude oil realization of US$95/bbl and `/US$ estimate of 53. Factoring in current crude price and exchange rate valuation attractiveness will only increase. With cash balance of `70bn at the end of FY12 and expected cash flow generation of `55bn in FY13, investors are anticipating a high maiden dividend payout. The announcement is expected as soon as the internal restructuring of the new management is done with.
Realisations
120 Natural Gas (RHS) US$/bbl Crude Oil (LHS) US$/mscf 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 4 3.8 3.6 3.4
Financial summary
Y/e 31 Mar (` m) Revenues yoy growth (%) Operating profit OPM (%) Reported PAT yoy growth (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) Price/Book (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) FY11 102,559 541.4 84,117 82.0 63,344 440.1 32.4 10.6 1.7 7.8 17.1 FY12 118,607 15.6 95,532 80.5 79,377 25.3 38.9 8.8 1.4 6.0 16.8 FY13E 155,507 31.1 125,363 80.6 94,033 18.5 49.3 7.0 1.1 4.2 17.7 20.9 FY14E 174,916 12.5 140,619 80.4 108,935 15.8 57.1 6.0 1.0 3.1 17.3 20.1
100 80 60 40 20 0
Q1 FY10
Q2 FY10
Q3 FY10
Q4 FY10
Q1 FY11
Q2 FY11
Q3 FY11
Q4 FY11
Q1 FY12
Q2 FY12
Q3 FY12
Q4 FY12
Q1 FY13
Technical View
Markets for the week cheered the stimulus measures by fed with splendid rally of more than 4% and closed convincingly above 5550 mark. Such move has confirmed breakout from symmetrical triangle above 5450 levels and same gap is likely to ac as pivot support. The weak dollar trade has fuelled rally across equity and commodity class across the world and with support of global stimulus, the momentum is likely to remain upbeat.
F&O View
Nifty future witnessed huge addition of long position, nifty future total open interest stood at 24mn shares. On option front, Nifty September 5600 call which has been witnessing writing from start of the month witnessed huge unwinding of short position, While nifty September 5600 put saw huge buying before RBI policy meet which is schedule on Monday It saw addition of 40mn shares in open interest. Nifty range for the next week might be between 5450-5650.
FIIs/MFs activity
2,600 2,200 1,800 1,400 1,000 600 200 (200) (Rs cr) Net FIIs inflow Net MFs Inflows
Advance/Decline
2,000 1,600 1,200 800 400 0
3-Sep 5-Sep 5-Sep 7-Sep 10-Sep 11-Sep 12-Sep 23-Aug 24-Aug 27-Aug 28-Aug 29-Aug 30-Aug
10-Sep
(No of stocks)
Advance
Decline
21-Aug
22-Aug
23-Aug
24-Aug
27-Aug
28-Aug
29-Aug
30-Aug
Global performance
Sensex Nifty Hangseng Nikkei Dow Jones Nasdaq Shanghai (0.2) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 0.6 1.8 3.2 4.4 4.4 4.2
31-Aug
11-Sep
Sectoral performance
BSE Metal BSE Realty BSE Cap Goods BSE Bank BSE Auto BSE Oil & Gas BSE IT BSE-200 BSE Small-Cap BSE FMCG BSE Power (0.2) BSE Pharma(0.4) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 1.2 2.6 3.9 3.7 5.6 5.3 5.0 4.8 4.5 6.4
(1.0)
31-Aug
13-Sep
(600)
3-Sep 4-Sep 5-Sep 6-Sep 7-Sep
Technically strong
CMP (`) 96 469 61 17 93 10 days Moving Average (`) 94 463 60 16 92 Total Traded Qty (lacs) 1.2 1.1 0.9 2.7 0.9 10 days Average Traded Qty (lacs) 0.3 0.7 0.5 1.1 0.4
Technically weak
10 days Moving Average (`) 606 1223 966 382 205 Total Traded Qty (lacs) 2.3 0.0 7.5 3.1 0.3 10 days Average Traded Qty (lacs) 0.6 0.0 6.9 2.7 0.2
Company Syndicate Bank Bhushan Steel Indian Hot. Gujarat Nre Andhra Bank
Bulk deals
Date 11-Sep 13-Sep 13-Sep Institution IFCI HSBC Global Ruane Cunniff Scrip name Kothari Petrochem IRB Infrastructure Develo Vadilal Industries B/S S B S Qty (lacs) 25.7 35.4 0.9 Price (`) 10.3 123.0 231.8
5500
5400
10200
5300
10000 9800
3-Sep 4-Sep 5-Sep 6-Sep 7-Sep 10-Sep 11-Sep 12-Sep 13-Sep
10-Sep
11-Sep
12-Sep
13-Sep
31-Aug
14-Sep
31-Aug
14-Sep
5200
3-Sep 4-Sep 5-Sep 6-Sep 7-Sep
Precious metals
Precious metals commenced this week on a strong note, as subdued U.S employment report provided the impetus. In Europe, we had affirmative news for the markets; as German constitutional court declared that permanent rescue package is a legitimate instrument. At the end of this week, gold prices extended its northward journey, just US$15 short of 2012 highs. Silver prices also witnessed impressive gains, trading close to US$35/ounce resistance levels. US Federal Reserve policy action enacted as the catalyst, with the apex body deciding to expand its balance sheet aggressively. Fed will initiate additional monthly purchases of US$40bn per month in new mortgage debt instruments. These additional purchases would be open ended and would continue until labour markets show any concrete signs of improvement. In addition, the apex body will continue its Operation Twist plan to replace short-term securities on its balance sheet with long-term bonds. The combined actions will together expand the Feds holdings by roughly US$85bn per month through the end of this year. Gold bugs remain euphoric, considering the recent development in U.S & Europe. Gold prices are traditionally deemed as a proxy for monetary expansion and inflation. As various central banks are willing to expand the balance sheet or offer some kind of stimulus in order to stimulate sagging economy, prospects are ripe for the yellow metal to extend the bull trend.
LME prices
Base Metals (US$/ton) Copper Nickel Zinc Aluminium Lead Precious Metals (US$/ounce) Spot Gold Spot Silver * Last Traded Price High 8,371 17,370 2,100 2,149 2,250 High 1,778 35 Low 7,693 16,001 1,890 1,968 2,036 Low 1,689 32 LTP* 8,075 16,750 2,036 2,102 2,158 LTP* 1,770 35 Chg(%) 1.3 1.5 3.4 3.9 3.0 Chg(%) 2.0 2.8
LME Copper
10500 10000 9500 9000 8500 8000 7500 7000 6500 6000
Mar-10 May-10 Jan-10 Mar-11 Jan-11 May-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Jul-10 Jul-11 May-12 Sep-10 Nov-10 Nov-11 Sep-11 Jul-12 Sep-12
COMEX Gold
Copper (LME)
2000 US$/ ounce Gold
US$/ ton
1750
1500
1250
Jan-10
Mar-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
Jan-12
May-10
May-11
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-10
Jul-11
Nov-10
Nov-11
Sep-10
Sep-11
Jul-12
Sep-12
5500
1000
NFO update
Fund Name SBIMF SDFS 90 Days - 70 DWS Fixed Maturity Plan-Series 16 JPMorgan India Fixed Maturity Plan Series 502 Close 17-Sep 26-Sep 28-Sep Type CE CE CE Class Debt Debt Debt
Interest Rate
Monthly Inflation MFG Products
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12
(%)
(%)
(2)
(%)
(US $)
Nymex Crude
Brent Crude
(8)
20
Currency Movements
100 90 80 70 60 50 40
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12
Dollar Index
(INR/USD) (INR/JPY)
95 Dollar Index 90 85 80 75 70
(EURO/USD) (INR/GBP)
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Source: Bloomberg
Jul-12
30
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
100
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
PMI
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
5,000
Jan-08
Dec-10
(%)
Apr-99
Jul-08 Jan-09
Chartbook...
Source: Bloomberg
Apr-00
Feb-11 Apr-11
Volatility Index
Sensex PE Band
Apr-01
Apr-02
Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
India Germany
Apr-03
Apr-04
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Jan-11
Dec-11 Feb-12
Euro Zone US
Apr-08
Jul-11
Apr-09
Apr-10
Jan-12
Apr-12
21x
9x
China
Apr-11
Jul-12
Jun-12 Aug-12
17x
5x
13x
Apr-12
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
(Rs)
Dow Jones
PE (x)
Nasdaq
PE Comparision
S&P 500
FTSE
DAX
Hang Seng*
FY13
Nikkei*
Dec-11 Feb-12
Shanghai Comp
Brazil Bovespa
Mexico Bolsa
Jan-11
Apr-12
Jul-11
FY14
Kospi*
FY13
Taiwan*
Jun-12 Aug-12
Straits*
Jan-12 Jul-12
Sensex
Event Calendar
Period : 17th 21st September
US Sep Empire Manufacturing (17 Sep) Aug Housing Starts MOM% (19 Sep) Aug Building Permits MOM% (19 Sep) RBI Policy Meet (17 Sep) Aug CPI YoY (18 Sep) China August Property Price (18 Sep) MNI September Flash Business Sentiment Indicator (21 Sep) Jul ECB Euro-Zone Current Account (17 Sep) Jul Euro-Zone Trade Balance (17 Sep) Sep Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (20-23 Sep) US Sep Consumer Confidence (25 Sep) Q2 GDP QoQ (27 Sep) Aug Pending Home Sales YoY (27 Sep) Sep HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (22-25 Sep) MNI September Business Sentiment Indicator (28 Sep) Aug Euro-Zone M3 (27 Sep) Sep Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (27 Sep) Sep Euro-Zone CPI Estimate YoY (28 Sep)
India
China
China
Eurozone
Eurozone
IIFL, IIFL Centre, Kamala City, Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel (W), Mumbai 400 013 The information in this newsletter is generally provided from the press reports, electronic media, research, websites and other media. The information also includes information from interviews conducted, analysis, views expressed by our research team. Investors should not rely solely on the information contained in this publication and must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advisors as they believe necessary. The materials and information provided by this newsletter are not, and should not be construed as an advice to buy or sell any of the securities named in this newsletter. India Infoline may or may not hold positions in any of the securities named in this newsletter as a part of its business. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance. India Infoline does not assure for accuracy or correctness of information or reports in the newsletter.