Weekly Wrap: Investment Idea
Weekly Wrap: Investment Idea
Weekly Wrap: Investment Idea
Investment idea
Sun Pharma
Pre-eminent play in pharma space
Sun Pharma has one of the fastest growing and most resilient businesses model among the Indian generics players. After strengthening its presence in India and US, Sun Pharma has started generating significant revenues in other geographies as well (International market constituted 60% of FY11 sales). The company has consistently delivered growth and has proven its expertise in driving operational efficiencies to extract margins that are significantly higher than competitors (~34% v/s industry margin of ~22%)
11 Sector: Pharmaceuticals
BSE code: NSE code: 52 Week h/l (`): Market cap (`cr): FV (`): Performance rel. to sensex (%) Sun Pharma Cipla Ranbaxy Dr Reddy 1m (0.2) (4.9) (3.7) 3.9 3m 0.7 (0.8) (4.0) 6.2 1yr 30.6 (5.0) (1.8) 11.7 524715 SUNPHARMA 540 / 393 50,203 1
Shareholding pattern September'11 Promoters Institutions Non promoter corp Public & others Share price chart
Sun Pharma 130 100 70 40 Oct-10 Sensex
Companys domestic business comprises mainly high margin and high growth therapeutic areas like CVs, neurology and diabetology (chronic segment). Industry surveys indicate high level of brand recognition for Sun Pharmas products among doctors. The companys prudent brand building strategy is evident from its top 10 selling brands that constitute 15% of domestic sales. Sun Pharmas 2,700-strong field force has ensured wide market reach and largest market share (~4.4%) in highly fragmented domestic pharma market. Brand franchise of drugs in chronic segments, once established, is durable. Hence, we expect the leadership to continue.
Apr-11
Oct-11
1 year forward PE
550 450 350 250 150 50
Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11
19.7 28,925 33.0 26,954 16.0 26.0 18.7 3.7 16.6 0.0 21.3
(Rs)
After a two-year legal tussle, Sun Pharma has acquired majority control of Taro Pharma in the US. Recently the company announced its intention to take full control of Taro. Sun Pharma currently owns 29.5mn shares of Taro (66.3% of the equity capital and 77.3% voting rights). Sun Pharma has proposed to acquire the minority shareholders in Taro for a cash consideration of $24.5/share. The deal is EPS assertive if goes through. The benefits from this acquisition also include large distribution strength, entry into the attractive dermatology segment and access to branded-drug sales infrastructure in the US. Taros acquisition to strengthen companys portfolio in the US market and with synergy coming in margin improvement inevitable; Operating leverage to enhance further with resolution at Caraco manufacturing unit. However, in the short term, it would act as a dampener to the margins (though in Q1FY12 Taro reported better than expected margin; 35% v/s expected 27%). Sun pharma as a whole has ANDAs for 151 products pending for approval (including 19 tentative approvals)
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Valuation summary
Y/e 31 Mar (` m) Revenues yoy growth (%) Operating profit OPM (%) Reported PAT yoy growth (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) Price/Book (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Debt/Equity (x) RoE (%) FY10 40,074 (6.2) 13,628 34.0 13,511 (25.7) 13.0 39.1 6.7 38.5 0.0 18.2 FY11 57,214 42.8 19,672 34.4 18,161 34.4 17.5 29.1 5.6 26.0 0.0 21.0 FY12E 73,234 28.0 24,900 34.0 23,228 27.9 22.4 22.7 4.6 20.4 0.0 22.2 FY13E 87,650
Sun Pharma has a one of the best franchises in the domestic market. The long term driver for the company includes its JV with Merck for EMs and taking full control of Taro in US. Sun Pharma and Mercks JV for EMs excluding India will generate revenues after FY14. We expect 24% and 26% revenue and PAT CAGR respectively over FY11-FY13E. Strong balance sheet (cash balance of `21bn) coupled with superior return ratios makes Sun Pharma as one of the best bet in pharma space. We recommend buy with a 9-month target price of `580.
Apr-11
Technical View
A Bullish breakout from Inverted Head & Shoulder was confirmed above 5160 and 460 points amplitude of the pattern indicate conservative target of 5610. The 200 DMA of 5415 may not hold its importance this time, as rally is gaining strength from high beta sector like Metals and Banks. Nifty is also about to form an Island Reversal with gap of 5285, acting as a strong support and which may also add fuel to the current rally.
F&O View
Nifty rollover for current expiry was at 80% vs 62% last expiry, with rollover majorly on long side. In addition Bank nifty rollover were in line at 76%. On option side, Highest OI in call is at 5400 whereas on put side it is at 5000. Writing is seen in 5500 call which may act as resistance, whereas on put side it is seen at 5300 strike. With VIX near it 52week low, ideal option strategy for month will be Long straddle or strangle.
FIIs/MFs activity
1,000 (Rs cr) 500 0 (500) (1,000) (1,500)
22-Sep 23-Sep 26-Sep 27-Sep 28-Sep 3-Oct 4-Oct 5-Oct 7-Oct 10-Oct 11-Oct 12-Oct 13-Oct 14-Oct 17-Oct 18-Oct 19-Oct 20-Oct 21-Oct 24-Oct
Advance/Decline
Net FIIs inflow Net MFs Inflows
2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0
26-Sep 27-Sep 28-Sep 29-Sep 30-Sep 3-Oct 4-Oct 5-Oct 7-Oct 10-Oct 11-Oct 12-Oct 13-Oct 14-Oct 17-Oct 18-Oct 19-Oct 20-Oct 21-Oct 24-Oct 25-Oct 26-Oct
(No of stocks)
Advance
Decline
Global performance
Nikkei Dow Jones Sensex Nifty Hangseng Nasdaq Shanghai 0.0 3.0 6.0 3.8 6.7 9.0 12.0 3.4 6.1 6.2 11.1 4.3
Sectoral performance
BSE Metal BSE Realty BSE Auto BSE Oil & Gas BSE IT BSE-200 BSE Power BSE FMCG BSE Cap Goods BSE Pharma BSE Bank BSE Small-Cap 0% 2.5% 1.9% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 6.0% 5.4% 5.2% 4.8% 4.7% 4.5% 3.9% 9.0% 8.3% 8.0%
Technically strong
CMP (`) 269 76 356 474 37 10 days Moving Average (`) 266 75 349 468 37 Total Traded Qty (lacs) 0.1 1.3 0.3 0.7 4.9 10 days Average Traded Qty (lacs) 0.1 1.3 0.3 0.6 4.6
Technically weak
CMP (`) 109 120 206 145 386 10 days Moving Average (`) 111 125 214 150 396 Total Traded Qty (lacs) 1.0 8.0 6.3 1.0 0.4 10 days Average Traded Qty (lacs) 1.0 5.8 4.7 0.8 0.3
Company CESC Ltd Dena Bank Biocon Ltd Lupin Ltd Bajaj Hindusthan
Company Welspun Corp Ltd Exide Indus Ltd Sesa Goa Ltd Allahabad Bank Cummins India
Bulk deals
Date 25-Oct 25-Oct 25-Oct 25-Oct 25-Oct Institution BNP Paribas Deutsche Sec Macquarie Bk Macquarie Bk Citigroup Gl Scrip name Balrampur Chini Balrampur Chini Balrampur Chini DCHL Pennar Industries B/S S S S S S Qty (lacs) 25.6 15.7 21.0 12.8 19.0 Price 53.4 53.7 53.1 47.4 40.0
Precious metals
Precious metals witnessed resurgence this week, with gold prices managing to breach key resistance levels of US$1,700/ounce. The complex was buoyed by the broad based rally in the commodity complex and a weaker US dollar. There was a growing anticipation that a solution to European debt crisis is on the anvil. Market focus was emphasised on the summit of European Union and euro-zone heads of state, where a package of measures to fight the debt crisis was expected. In this respect, European leaders have persuaded bondholders into accepting 50% write-off on Greek debt. EU official have also reached a consensus to boost the EFSF rescue fund to 1 trillion euros (US$1.4 trillion) from 440bn euros, as a measure to avert the debt crisis spreading in the European region. Silver prices managed impressive jump, deriving cues from the strength in the industrial metals complex. On the price front, we tend to remain bullish on the yellow metal, as expanding money supply in Europe on account of leverage of European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) augments the bullish price projections. Moreover, loose monetary policy in US is expected to remain intact.
LME prices
Base Metals (US$/ton) Copper Nickel Zinc Aluminium Lead Precious Metals (US$/ounce) COMEX Gold COMEX Silver * Last Traded Price High 8,280 20,300 1,976 2,295 2,052 High 1,754 36 Low 6,810 18,170 1,740 2,100 1,800 Low 1,613 30 LTP* 8,068 19,839 1,942 2,248 2,024 LTP* 1,736 35 Chg(%) 12.9 5.5 7.6 5.8 5.7 Chg(%) 6.1 13.6
LME Copper
10500 10000 9500 9000 8500 8000 7500 7000 6500 US$/ ton Copper (LME)
COMEX Gold
2000 US$/ ounce 1750 Gold
1500
1250
Oct-10
Oct-10
Oct-11
Jan-10
Jan-11
Oct-11
Apr-10
Jul-10
Apr-11
Jan-10
Jan-11
Apr-10
Jul-10
Apr-11
Jul-11
Jul-11
6000
1000
NFO update
Fund Name Sundaram Capital Protection Oriented Fund 5 Years (Series 3) IDFC FMP Yearly Series 53 ICICI Prudential Fixed Maturity Plan Series 57- 3 Years Plan C IDBI Gold Fund Close 31-Oct 31-Oct Type CE CE Class Debt-Hybrid Debt-FMP Debt-FMP Gold-fund
Dividend update
Mutual Fund UTI Mastershare Edelweiss absolute return fund Dividend % Record date 22.00 31-Oct 1.80 28-Oct Class Equity HybridEquity
04-Nov CE 02-Nov OE
Interest Rate
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4
May-11 Nov-08 Feb-10
(%)
May-11
Nov-08
Feb-10
Dec-10
Sep-09
Oct-11
Jan-08
Jun-08
(%)
IIP
160 140 120 100 80 60 40
(US $)
Nymex Crude
Brent Crude
May-11
May-11
Nov-08
Feb-10
Currency Movements
100 90 80 70 60 50 40
May-11 Nov-08 Feb-10 Dec-10 Sep-09 Oct-11 Apr-09 Jan-08 Jun-08 Jul-10
Dollar Index
(INR/USD) (INR/JPY)
90 85 80 75 70 95 Dollar Index
(EURO/USD) (INR/GBP)
Nov-08
Feb-10
Sep-09
Source: Bloomberg
Dec-10
Oct-11
Jan-08
Jun-08
Apr-09
Jul-10
30
Dec-10
Sep-09
Oct-11
Jan-08
Jun-08
Apr-09
Jul-10
20
Dec-10
Sep-09
Apr-09
Oct-11
Jan-08
Jun-08
Apr-09
Jul-10
Jul-10
45
50
55
60
65
70
100
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
PMI
10,000
Dec-10
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
5,000
Jan-08
0
(%)
May-08
Apr-99
Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11
Aug-09
Source: Bloomberg
Chartbook...
Volatility Index
Apr-00
Oct-08 Mar-09
Sensex PE Band
Apr-01
India Germany
May-02
May-03
May-04
Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11
VIX
Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11
Jun-05
Euro Zone US
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jul-08
Jul-11 Aug-11
China
Jul-09
Jul-10
Sep-11
5x
13x
21x
17x
9x
Jul-11
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1,160
1,180
1,200
1,220
1,240
1,260
1,280
1,300
1,320
18 PE (x) 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
Dow Jones
Apr-10
(Rs)
Nasdaq
S&P 500
PE Comparision
FTSE
DAX
Hang Seng*
FY12
Nikkei*
Shanghai Comp
Jan-11 Mar-11
Brazil Bovespa
FY13
Mexico Bolsa
FY12
Kospi*
Taiwan*
Straits*
Sensex
The RBI decided to deregulate the savings bank deposit interest rate with immediate effect. Banks are free to determine their savings bank deposit interest rate but they have to ensure uniform interest rates on savings bank deposits up to ` 1 lakh. Secondly, for savings bank deposits over ` 1 lakh, a bank may provide differential rates of interest, if it so chooses. However, there should not be any discrimination from customer to customer on interest rates for similar amount of deposit.
The RBI hiked the repo rate by 25 bps to 8.50%. The reverse repo rate now stands at 7.50%. The Marginal Standing Facility Rate is now at 9.50%. Inflation will begin falling in Dec. 2011, and then continue down a steady path to 7% by March, the RBI said. Notwithstanding current rates of inflation persisting till November, the likelihood of a rate action in the December mid-quarter review is relatively low, the RBI added.
Food inflation rose to 11.43% YoY for the week ended October 15, compared with 10.6% in the preceding week. Food inflation stood at 14.20% in the corresponding week last year. On an annual basis, vegetable prices were up ~25%, fruits 11.96%, milk 10.85%, pulses 9.06%, cereals 4.62% and eggs, meat & fish 12.82%. On the other hand, onion prices fell ~19%.
The European regions rescue fund was boosted to 1 trillion euros ($1.4 trillion) and investors agreed to a voluntary writedown of 50% on Greek debt. French. Other measures in the bailout plan included recapitalization of European banks, a potentially bigger role for the IMF, a commitment from Italy to do more to reduce its debt and a signal from leaders that the ECB will maintain bond purchases in the secondary market.
US economy accelerates in Q3
Third-quarter GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.5% in the July to September period. The pace of growth was in line with expectations, and was nearly double the 1.3% growth rate in Q2. US economy had grown by 0.4% in Q1.
Event Calender
Period : 31st Oct - 04th Nov
US Oct Total Vehicle sales (2 Nov) FOMC rate decision (2 Nov) Q3 Nonfarm Productivity (3 Oct) Sept Factory Orders (3 Nov) Oct unemployment rate (4 Oct) Sept Exports YoY% (1 Nov) Sept Imports YoY% (1 Nov) Primary Articles WPI YoY (3 Nov) Food Articles WPI YoY (3 Nov) Oct PMI Manufacturing (1 Nov) Oct China Non-manufacturing PMI (3 Nov) Sept Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (31 Oct) Oct PMI Manufacturing (1 Nov) ECB Announces Interest Rates (3 Nov) US Sept Consumer Credit (8 Nov) Sept Wholesale Inventories (9 Nov) Oct Import Price Index YoY (10 Oct) Sept Trade Balance (10 Nov) Primary Articles WPI YoY (10 Nov) Food Articles WPI YoY (10 Nov) Fuel Power Light WPI YoY (10 Nov) Sept Industrial Production YoY (11 Nov) Oct Trade Balance (10 Nov) Oct Exports, Imports YoY% (10 Nov) Oct China Property prices (11 Nov) Oct Industrial Production YoY (11 Nov) Nov Sentix Investor confidence (7 Nov) Sept Euro-Zone Retail Sales YoY (7 Nov)
India
India
China
China
Euro Zone
Euro Zone
IIFL, IIFL Centre, Kamala City, Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel (W), Mumbai 400 013 The information in this newsletter is generally provided from the press reports, electronic media, research, websites and other media. The information also includes information from interviews conducted, analysis, views expressed by our research team. Investors should not rely solely on the information contained in this publication and must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advisors as they believe necessary. The materials and information provided by this newsletter are not, and should not be construed as an advice to buy or sell any of the securities named in this newsletter. India Infoline may or may not hold positions in any of the securities named in this newsletter as a part of its business. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance. India Infoline does not assure for accuracy or correctness of information or reports in the newsletter.