Joshua Karahalis Weather Comm II 11 March 2013 Familiar Weather Topics Wind Chill:

The frigid feeling you get when a brisk wind blows is the meteorologists favorite scare tactic, wind chill, also known as wind chill factor and wind chill temperature. Although one might think wind chill simply means how cold it feels, it is quite different and a bit more complicated. In reality, the wind chill is a measure of how fast your body cools to the air temperature. The stronger the wind, when the air is quite cool, lowers the wind chill temperature. Discovered during the Second World War by two scientists, Paul Siple and Charles Passel, working in Antarctica, the wind chill factor was originally based off of the cooling rate of a plastic bottle and how fast the water inside turned to ice. The wind chill factor was adopted by the National Weather Service in 1945. The bane of wind chills existence is that surprisingly enough a small plastic bottle filled with water is not at all like human flesh and blood. Therefore this wind chill factor had to be scrapped for a better one in 2001. It was then that people donated their skin so scientists from the UK, US and Canada can model how fast moving air lowers skin temperature. The end result was a better model to warn weary wanderers who venture outdoors as to how fast they may get frostbite if they have skin exposed to the elements.

Jet Stream: When tuning in to your local TV station or The Weather Channel you may have noticed a big snake-like arrow streaked across the US. This is what meteorologists and scientists call a jet stream. Located between 20-50 thousand feet above earths surface, jet streams are extensive rivers of air that flow west to east around the globe. Weather systems that move across the country are steered by this massive flow of air. Their shape is determined by large scale weather systems like High and Low pressure, which will determine whether you will see warmer air or colder air. A very large temperature difference will increase the speed of the air within the jet stream. Many people have contributed to the discovery and advancement of the jet stream. In 1939, a German meteorologist by the name of H. Seilkopf coined the phrase Jet Stream. Later on during World War II bomber pilots helped us further our understanding of jet streams when they used them to expedite their missions and flee their foe faster. In addition, commercial flying has enjoyed the luxury of traveling through jet streams. It cuts down fuel consumption and decreases flight time as long as the wind associated with the jet stream acts as a tailwind. This reduces fuel costs greatly and saves the airlines money. Tornadoes: The most magnificent, menacing and mystical weather phenomena is said to be the tornado and is associated with the most violent of thunderstorms. A tornado is

merely a rotating column of air that packs a punch. Scientists from around the world have sought to understand these complex forces of nature. One man in particular, Dr. Tetsuya Fujita, dedicated his career to the study of tornadoes. His diligent work paid off when he constructed the Fujita Scale for tornado strength, which ranks tornadoes from F-0 to F-5, with the F-5 being the most massive and destructive. The awesome power that an F-5 tornado produces has dubbed it the Finger of God, with a width of over mile and winds exceeding 216mph an F-5 tornado leaves incredible damage in its path. Due to the complexity of tornadoes and vastness of area in which they breed, not much progress has been made in the way of how they initially form. However, it is believed that a process known as shear contributes to their birth. Shear, in this case, is when winds at two different altitudes above the surface blow at two different speeds, which creates rotation towards the ground below. Like an ice skater bringing their arms closer their body to increase the speed at which they spin, the updraft of a severe thunderstorm acts to tighten the rotation of a tornado, increasing the wind speed. The funnel is then lowered to the ground by intense downpours and hail. One can make the comparison between a tornado and a hurricane because they both rotate counterclockwise. However, the frequency of tornadoes is much greater and occurs over a wider area than hurricanes and tornadoes are simply a rotating column of air whereas a hurricane is a large rotating air mass. Tornadoes have been known to frequent an area of the United States known as Tornado Alley, which consists of the

Central States from North Dakota to Texas. This area is a prime breeding ground for tornadic activity due to the high levels of instability in the spring and summer. Hurricanes: What do the words destruction, desolation and desperation all have in common? All of them describe a tropical system known to us as a hurricane, also referred to as typhoon or cyclone in other parts of the world. In its rawest definition, a hurricane is a raging rotating oceanic weather system capable of producing fierce winds, prodigious rainfall and storm surge. The weakest of hurricanes, known on the Saffir-Simpson Scale for Hurricane Intensity, produces winds of at least 74 mph. The Saffir-Simpson Scale ranges from category 1 to category 5. A category 1 hurricane can cause minimal damage, but a category 5 hurricane however causes a catastrophic annihilation of property and land with winds surpassing 156 mph. Warm ocean waters and moist air are the fuel to the tropical cyclone engine. When this air rises it creates an area of lower pressure near the surface. As the warm moist air rises, more fills in behind it and cools off at higher altitudes creating a cloud. With the continued feeding process of warm moist air a cloud cluster forms combined with wind we witness the birth of a tropical system. Once the system is formed it begins to rotate as a whole, faster and faster as it increases in strength. The eye of the storm is very calm and clear, which is also the location of the lowest pressure. The most dangerous part of a hurricane is the northeastern quarter due severe weather, storm surge, and high winds in this sector. As

the storm approaches the coast the winds push water from the ocean towards the shore, creating an abnormal rise in water known as storm surge. Before the age of computer models and advanced tropical forecasters, predicting hurricane formation was a difficult task leaving citizens with little or no time to prepare. Today, we are able to forecast the birth of hurricanes by identifying prime breeding zones for a system to develop. Forecasting landfall however, can prove to be a daunting task indeed. Although, models are making better predictions as to where a hurricane may make landfall, many complex atmospheric factors limit our ability to correctly forecast the exact location of a hurricanes landfall. Radar/Doppler Radar: As you walk around town you hear the faint sound of an ambulance and as it quickly approaches the siren gets louder and louder only to fade away as it passes. This is known as the Doppler Effect and is used in todays weather radars. The word RADAR stands for radio detection and ranging, which is exactly what the Doppler radar does. A signal is sent out and when said signal hits an object it is then reflected back towards the source of original transmission. Conventional radar is proficient in measuring precipitation via reflectivity, but a Doppler radar can detect storms much better. Doppler radars are also capable of detecting the radial velocity of a weather system, which helps meteorologists determine whether a system could be tornadic. Two opposing velocity directions imply a strong amount of rotation in the storm and hint

towards a possible developing tornado. With all of this technology have you ever wondering how the radar detects weather? It is simple really. When the radar send out a pulse of radiation the amount received, known as backscattered radiation, determines the intensity of precipitation. However, Doppler radars do not determine precipitation type, only the intensity of backscattered radiation. Determining precipitation type, especially with winter precipitation, we take into account other meteorological factors such as temperature, upper air data and trends to get an image of what we think is falling at that time. This can be particularly tricky because snow can create bright banding, which leads to a false estimate of how intense it is precipitating over the area. Another misleading weather phenomenon is virga, which is precipitation that evaporates before it reaches the surface, but shows up on the radar image. Anomalous propagation occurs when the radar pulse is refracted towards the ground giving a false echo. Radar, when combined with rain gauge observations, can generate a product known as radar derived precipitation to show how much precipitation fell over an area. El Nino/La Nina: Hundreds of years ago Peruvian fisherman stumbled across anomalously warm Pacific Ocean temperatures off the coast of South America. They noticed that the number of fish caught around Christmastime decreased in certain years and the pattern persisted. These above average sea surface temperatures were dubbed El Nino, which is translated as little boy and named after baby Jesus because of the time of year this

event occurs. The counterpart to El Nino is La Nina, which is translated to little girl and characterized by unusually low sea surface temperatures. In order to have an El Nino event, there must be five consecutive months with above average seas surface temperatures. El Nino events are linked directly to extreme rains and flooding along the Pacific Coast of the United States and above average storm activity in the Southern US. Contrary to the above average storm activity in the US, La Nina events do just the opposite. The effects of El Nino are not limited to the United States however; its effects are as far reaching as Eastern Africa, which observes reduced rainfall during El Nino events. As scary as above average sea surfaces may sound when we have all been enthralled in the climate change discussions, remember that El Nino and La Nina have been around for hundreds of years and are therefore not linked to global warming. Long-Range Weather Prediction: The quest to forecast more than a few days in advance has always been a daunting task for meteorologists. Now, these forecasts are not your typical cloudy with a chance of showers, they are more broad like above or below average precipitation or temperature. Long-range weather prediction is something that could be very useful for any market that is affected by the weather. For instance, a farmer may want to know if there will be a draught in the future so that he can plan accordingly and save money. In general, anything that is forecasted further than seven days using a computer model is accepted as no better than climatology. Climatology comprises of the averaged weather

conditions of a given area over time. This, combined with current global weather phenomena, can help meteorologists gauge what may happen in the future. Although accuracy of long-range weather forecasts is low to begin with, seasons also complicate things. Wintertime long-range weather forecasts are especially difficult because a lot of factors contribute to determining precipitation and temperature. You may have noticed that a book known as the Farmers Almanac creates long-range weather outlooks, but just how right are they? A quick gander at their webpage and they boast about their secret formula that only one man in the world knows. This formula takes into consideration many meteorological factors and their website claims that many of their followers believe the almanacs forecasts are 80-85% accurate. Each organization has their own process of creating long-range forecasts and forecasts will differ. Long-range forecasting is an inexact science and how each forecast is made depends on each organizations own devices. Thunderstorms: A heavy downpour, whipping winds, bright flashes of lightning, boisterous booms of thunder and a sudden rush of cool air are all tell tale signs that a thunderstorm may be approaching. Soothing for some, thunderstorms can occur year-round under the right conditions. The prescription for a thunderstorm is moisture, instability and a lifting mechanism, which can be terrain, fronts or anything that pushes air upwards. These main ingredients are found abundantly in the spring and summer when the air is warm

and a plethora of moist air exists. The strength of the air moving upwards into the cumulonimbus cloud, known as an updraft, determines the strength of the thunderstorm. A weak updraft will produce a weak thunderstorm or no thunderstorm at all. If the updraft is strong then you will get a heavy thunderstorm. In order for a storm to be severe you need another ingredient known as shear, which is a change in wind speed with height. This keeps the updraft away from the falling rain so that the storm does not die off as fast. The most intense thunderstorms have a rotating updraft, which are capable of producing tornadoes. Initiation of a thunderstorm requires the breaking of a cap, which prevents any air parcels to rise freely and inhibits storm development. Daytime heating provides enough energy to break the cap leading to the creation of storms in the afternoon or evening. Lightning is created via the collisions between ice and water particles, which builds up and electric charge within the cloud. If the electrical field gets large enough a huge spark occurs, almost like static electricity shocking your finger after walking across the floor with socks. This spark can occur between yourself and the cloud, cloud-to-ground and cloud-to-cloud. Lightnings counterpart, thunder, occurs when the air gets superheated by the lightning then cools and constantly expands and contracts creating a vibration. This vibration resonates through the air creating the rumbling of thunder we hear. Climate Change:

The major topic of the past decade or so has been that of climate change and more specifically global warming. Global warming is the rise in average temperature of the earths atmosphere caused by greenhouse gases. The major greenhouse gases are water vapor, carbon dioxide and methane, which all combine to absorb outgoing energy from earths surface and radiate it back down creating the greenhouse effect. As these gases increase in concentration in our atmosphere the average temperature of the atmosphere will rise. There is a direct correlation between the influence of humans and the rise in greenhouse gases. Since the industrial revolution we have observed and collected data to confirm that earths average atmospheric temperature has increased. Ozone is another greenhouse gas that contributes to the greenhouse effect. The ozone hole has a few connections to climate change. The ozone hole is the seasonal depletion of ozone in the upper atmosphere. This ozone helps protect the earth from harmful radiation and when this ozone shield is depleted more harmful radiation seeps through to our atmosphere. Of course we are concerned with what lie ahead, which is why we use climate prediction models, such as the ones used by NASA, to simulate the atmosphere 50-100 years in the future. These models are fed by different conditions, such as greenhouse gas concentration, cloud cover and ocean currents to help improve the models to give us a better overview of the future of our climate. Winter Precipitation:

Winter is a time when all types of precipitation are observed. Everything from snow to hail is seen depending on where you are in the country. Have you ever wondered why it snows above freezing? It is simple really. When the temperature of the air is above freezing near the surface the air temperature might be below or at freezing as you move higher into the atmosphere. As the snow begins to fall some snowflakes melt and evaporate to sacrifice themselves through a process known as evaporative cooling. The snow that survives is able to reach the ground. How about when it rains below freezing? The reasoning for this is just the opposite for snow above freezing. Though the surface air might be below freezing the upper atmosphere is quite warm, above freezing, which allows precipitation to fall as rain only to freeze at the surface. When looking at sleet however, the profile of the upper atmosphere is much different. In the case of the sleet the upper atmosphere has a warm pocket, which melts the snow and then refreezes just before the surface creating sleet. You may be wondering what the difference between sleet and hail. The only bond that these two share is that they are both ice. Hail forms in thunderstorms when the rising air pushes the falling rain back into the below freezing portion of the cloud. Only when the hail is heavy enough is when it makes its journey to the surface. Another wintry wonder is why some snow is soft, but other snow is sticky. This has to do with the air temperature. When the air is very cold, much below freezing, the snow stays pure and does not combine with other snowflakes. When the air is at or above freezing some of

the snowflake melts allowing others to combine with the flake. The moist snowflake gives us that sticky texture, which makes wet snow good for snowball fights. The final conundrum is when snow disappears when the air temperature is below freeing as if it was by some sort of magic. Unfortunately it is not magic, it is a process known as sublimation where the solid, snow, transitions directly to its gas phase, water vapor. The ingredients for snow sublimation are dry air, strong wind and the sun directly overhead. Folklore: Humans have strived to perfect weather forecasting for centuries. Combined with historical uses of rhyming, anecdotes and adages it was a matter of time before weather folklore made its appearance to help people prepare for the weather. Folklore is the traditional beliefs, customs and stories of a community passed through generations by word of mouth. In our case these stories and beliefs are applied to weather. Even though these are general beliefs in a certain region it does not necessarily mean they are scientifically accurate. One of the most common and widely used weather lore is red sky in the morning, sailors take warning. Science is on our side for this folklore because of the movement of weather systems and sunrise. As weather systems approach from the west the sunlight in the early morning passes at a very low angle through the atmosphere, which scatters all other light except for red giving us the red sky we see in the morning. Another, no weather is ill if the wind be still. This is

both true and false. Usually, calm winds and clear skies indicate a high pressure system is in control and tranquil conditions will persist. On the other hand, the calm before the storm so they say, contradicts our fair weather phrase. One of the biggest fallacies in our weather folklore is our furry forecaster Punxsutawney Phil. February 2nd is a major holiday in Punxsutawney Pennsylvania in which Phil determines whether or not there will be 6 more weeks of winter based off of seeing his shadow. Research has shown that this little critter only forecasts on chance because there is no correlation between clouds cover on February 2nd in this region and the approach of spring. Lake (sea) Effect Rain/Snow: If you have ever lived in the Great Lakes region you are all too familiar with the term Lake-effect. Such weather phenomena can produce both rain and snow. It is a blessing for snow lovers and a hindrance for those who arent as gleeful to see the fluffy flakes. For lake effect to occur you need wind that passes over the water and enough temperature difference between the water and upper air. For instance, lake effect requires cold air moving over a warm lake. Due to the unstable nature of the lower atmosphere and the inability of cold air to hold much moisture, clouds and precipitation form rapidly. The more time wind has to pass over the water the more precipitation falls, which is called fetch. Most snowfall associated with lake-effect precipitation produces massive amounts of accumulation downwind of the lake. A single band is more intense than multiband precipitation and is influenced by friction along the shore.

Single bands are concentrated in a small area, but banded lake effect can span from 1km-20km in width. Lake effect season ends once the lakes have frozen over because no evaporation of warm lake water can take place as cooler air moves over the lake. Compared to lake effect snow, lake effect rain also occurs in the fall months as water temperatures are high and cooler air passes over. Lake effect events, however, are not limited to the Great Lakes and can occur downwind of the Great Salt Lake in Utah. These events are also not limited to just lakes, as we see bay effect precipitation downwind of the Chesapeake Bay and Cape Cod Bay. Around the world the largest sea effect precipitation occurs in Japan and Korea off the sea of Japan and in other places like Canada, Finland and Scandinavia. Optical Phenomena: When looking up at the sky you may have seen a bright ring of colors around the sun or maybe a rainbow after a storm, have you ever wondered what caused these optical phenomena? A rainbow is a beautiful semi-circle structure that paints the sky with bright yellows, reds, oranges, blues and greens. They occur when sunlight combines with rain to distort the beam of light. This distortion is called refraction, which creates the arch and colors that we see in the rainbow. Unfortunately, the same process does not occur with snow. The light cannot be refracted through snow because it lacks the curved surface necessary to get the bow-like structure we see after a rainstorm. What about the mirage you see on the roadway as you drive on a sunny

day? Light travels through air in a straight line when the layer of air is the same temperature. When the sun heats the surface you get a much warmer surface temperature compared to the air temperature. This gradient bends the light making it travel in the wave pattern you observe as a mirage. Another optical phenomenon is a sun dog. These are caused by distorting light via refraction through ice crystals in upper atmospheric ice clouds called cirrus. In order for them to form the sun must be in the sky at a very low angle to the horizon and the cirrus clouds must be oriented the same way. If the ice crystals are flat then the refracted light will create a bright spot on both sides of the sun. A ring around the sun or moon means rain or snow coming soon. This is a popular meteorological folklore that is actually true. As wet weather approaches the first clouds are known as cirrus clouds, which are made of ice. When they are oriented around the sun or moon light is refracted, which creates the halo structure you see around each. Heat Index/Apparent Temperature: The hot tempered brother of wind chill is known as the Heat Index, which is also called the apparent temperature and originally known as the temperature-humidity index. Our brothers to the north call it the humidex. The wind chill and heat index both work to give people an idea of how it cold or hot it actually feels outside. This warm weather index combines air temperature and relative humidity in an attempt to tell you how it feels. The index was developed in 1978 by a scientist named George Winterling

and a year later adopted by the National Weather Service. During a hot summer day you may notice your body begins to perspire, which is its mechanism to cool off through evaporation. When your sweat evaporates the air around your skin cools through a process known as evaporative cooling. Increased relative humidity reduces your bodys ability to cool down because evaporation of perspiration is very slow, resulting in a lower rate of heat removal from the body. It is useful in determining how dangerous it will be to do outdoor activities due to the overheating of your body. Like the wind chill factor, heat index values are subjective and certain people with different proportions will feel different affects from hot humid air. Also like its chilly brother, heat index values should only be interpreted as a slowed process for heat loss from your body and not the actual real-feel temperature. Satellite Imagery/Data: Have you ever seen a meteorologist use an image that did not quite look like radar, but more like clouds or bright colors? You may be looking at satellite imagery that your forecaster uses to track the weather. Unlike radar, satellites imagery is obtained through two types of orbiting satellites. The first are geostationary satellites, which are located about 22,369 miles above the equator. As they orbit with earth they take images of each region to help track the movement of weather systems. The second is polar orbiting satellites, which are located around 540 miles above earths surface and orbit the poles. The basic types of satellite imagery used are visible, infrared and water

vapor. Visible satellite pictures are only viewed during the day hence the name visible because the satellite can only see what is going on while it is light out. Looping these images can help us determine areas of snow cover and fog because neither moves like clouds when looped. Infrared imagery uses sensors to detect emitted energy below to show clouds both day and night. Clouds are indicated as cooler spots on the imagery and are easily differentiated from land. This product shows strong thunderstorms with very cold tops. This product can also determine fog and low clouds using the fog product, which shows up as dark areas on the imagery at night. Water vapor imagery gives a depiction of how much moisture is present in the upper atmosphere. Dry regions are indicated as dark swaths on the final image whereas white areas are moist regions. This type of imagery can indicate where heavier rains are possible and where thunderstorms may occur within high moisture areas. These satellites can also help us determine sea surface temperatures, track volcanic ash along with forest fires.