Cgu MCIcase
Cgu MCIcase
Cgu MCIcase
1983
Contents
Executive Summary....................................................................................................................................... 3 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 4 Background ................................................................................................................................................... 4 Before the First Antitrust Suit (Before May 1974) .................................................................................... 4 Before the Second Antitrust Suit (June 1974 January 1982) ................................................................. 4 After the Second Antitrust Suit (February 1982 Today) ........................................................................ 4 SWOT Analysis Pre AT&T Breakup ............................................................................................................. 5 SWOT Analysis Post AT&T Breakup ........................................................................................................... 5 MCIs Past Financial Strategy ........................................................................................................................ 6 MCI Financial Analysis for Growth ................................................................................................................ 7 Calculation of Cost of Debt and Cost of Equity ......................................................................................... 7 Calculation of MCIs Future Financial Needs ............................................................................................ 8 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................................... 9 Appendix 1 Pre AT&T Breakup ................................................................................................................. 10 Appendix 2 Post AT&T Breakup ............................................................................................................... 11 Appendix 3 Chronology of Significant Events .......................................................................................... 12 Appendix 4 MCI Beta Calculation............................................................................................................. 13 Appendix 5 S&P 500 Data Set 1 (1980-1983) ........................................................................................... 14 Appendix 6 S&P 500 Data Set 2 (1980-1983) ........................................................................................... 15 Appendix 7 Risk Free Rate T-Bill Average 1980-1983 ........................................................................... 16 Appendix 8 Calculation of MCIs rD .......................................................................................................... 17 Appendix 9 Calculation of MCI Required rE.............................................................................................. 17 Appendix 10 Table of Rates...................................................................................................................... 17 Appendix 11 MCI Pro Forma Balance Sheet ............................................................................................ 18 Appendix 12 MCI Pro Forma Sources and Uses ....................................................................................... 19 Appendix 13 MCI Pro Forma Income Statement ..................................................................................... 19 Appendix 14 MCI Proposed Financial Moves........................................................................................... 20 Appendix 15 Financial Ratio Analysis ($ billions) ..................................................................................... 20
Executive Summary
MCI has been providing long distance telecommunication services for several years. The company has seen its revenue grow from almost nothing in FY1974, to more than $1 billion in FY1983. The company has had problems from AT&T unfairly using its monopoly and from the FCC passing regulation against MCIs services. Each time this has happened, the courts have ruled in MCIs favor, and MCI has continued to grow. Recently, the FCC has broken up the AT&T monopoly and forced it to compete on fairer terms. This has given MCI the opportunity to steal a large chunk of market share from AT&T, but MCI would need to obtain funds and grow in order to do this. The company has raised capital in the past by issuing convertible preferred stock and debentures that allow MCI to convert the debt into equity and take on additional debt. The cost of debt for MCI was significant, but MCI needed the money for growth. MCIs gamble paid off and the growth outpaced the expense. The growth in the stock has enabled them to convert the old debt and take on new debt, allowing them to further grow. MCI is in an excellent strategic and financial position for growth. The market share is theirs for the taking, they have excellent debt history and financial ratios, they have $550 million in cash, and their stock price is $47 per share. The Pro Forma Balance Sheet, Sources and Uses, and Income Statement show that MCI is going to need significant capital moving forward. MCI will need to get this capital from the market, first from the sale of common stock and then from the sale of convertible debentures. Their cost of debt is calculated to be 12.46% and their required return on equity is calculated to be 16.17%. The additional debt and plant and equipment growth will allow MCI to grow from the 1983 revenue level of $1.1 billion to the expected 1990 revenue level of $10.6 billion. The changes will help MCI become a big player in the long-distance telecommunications industry and will provide a strong base for future operations of the company.
Introduction
MCI needs to determine what its financial policy should be for the next few years so that it can capitalize on its market position and grow into a hugely profitable company. MCI needs to determine its strategic position, financial structure, and capital needs necessary for its potential growth.
Background
MCI has been providing long distance telecommunication services for years. The company has revenue growth from almost nothing in FY1974, to more than $1 billion in FY1983. In the last two years, MCIs stock price has increased five-fold. MCI operates in an industry historically plagued by a strong monopoly (AT&T) and government involvement via the Federal Communications Commission (FCC). The company background can be broken down into three eras based on antitrust lawsuit decisions.
separation of AT&T long distance from its local telephone company subsidiaries. AT&T Communications would now compete directly with MCI, GTE, and ITT. The newly independent local telephone companies would be forced to provide equal quality of access to all providers, and therefore the rates paid by MCI would have to rise by about 80% in 1984. MCI will have the opportunity to take some of AT&Ts 95% market share but MCIs cost advantages will erode and AT&Ts competitive flexibility will increase.
easily handle more debt. They should be able to leverage their financial policy to raise capital and expand. Additionally they have the opportunity to implement a new product, MCI Mail. MCIs new threat is that AT&T will try to compete on price. The Post AT&T Breakup SWOT is shown in Appendix 2.
MCI was able to expertly use debt to leverage the company and explode with the growth in the market. They sold convertible securities, converted them to common stock, and took on more debt. This process was repeated many times, each time allowing MCI to continue to grow further through the increase in capital. When MCI issued these debts, it was taking a very large risk. The interest rates were high, and the company would have very serious financial problems if they were not able to grow. Management had significant confidence in the company and issued the high cost debt because they believed that the cost of debt was secondary to the need for available funds to grow. It was a great gamble, but it turned out that they were right. A chronology of significant MCI events is shown in Appendix 3. MCI now needs to figure out how to position itself for the future growth opportunities.
return of around 12.75%. This data is tabulated in Appendix 5 and Appendix 6. The data sets extend from 1980 to March 1983, similar to the beta calculation. The next step involves determining a risk-free rate of return. This was calculated using the average return on the 13-week t-bill for the same 1980 to 1983 period. The corresponding data is shown in Appendix 7 and the calculated risk-free rate is 11.72%. Exhibit 7 from the case was used to calculate the required return on debt for MCI. The average return of the MCI bonds from 1980 to 1983 was taken and calculated to be rD = 12.46%. This is very high considering the expected market rate is only 12.75%. To account for this, the average return for Utilities Preferred Stock (Medium) was calculated and found to be 14.17%. This was the value used for the expected return for the market (instead of the 12.75%) because it was calculated from similar companies preferred stock. This data and corresponding calculations are shown in Appendix 8. The calculation for the required return on equity (rE), using the CAPM, is shown in Appendix 9. The calculation shows that MCIs cost of equity is 16.17%. All of the rates are shown in Appendix 10.
respectively. The Pro Forma statements show that MCI is going to need significant cash in order to undertake the capital investment plans that will allow it to achieve the 20% market share that it desires. The projections call for capital expenditures ranging from $890 million in FY1984 to $2.76 billion in FY1987. MCI does not generate that much cash, and so it needs to generate additional capital. The proposed means of generating this additional capital are tabulated in Appendix 14. MCI will begin by selling $481 million in common stock in the same manner that it has sold it in the past. The share price is currently $47 per share and MCI needs to capitalize on the high value of the shares while it
can. This amount will satisfy MCIs needs for 1984. From 1985 to 1989, MCI will sell convertible debentures in the same manner that it has in the past. The debentures will be convertible so that MCI can add them to the common stock and then continue to issue more debt. The cost of this debt is the calculated rD (12.46%) although it may be lower considering that recent interest rates have been significantly lower. Each year from 1985 to 1989, MCI will take on additional debt and convert some of the older debt (although the conversion was not taken into account in the financial statements). The proposed additional debt will give MCI the money it needs to execute all of its expansion plans and take advantage of the FCC breakup of AT&T. The additional debt will change MCIs financial ratios to be more in line with other pure-play competitors. This effect is shown in Appendix 15. MCIs current ratio will drop and its debt ratio will rise. If MCI continues to be profitable, it will have no problem converting the debt or paying it down. The revenue will greatly increase and MCI will be able to compete on more even terms with AT&T.
Conclusion
MCI is poised to be very profitable, but they need the capital infusion that will enable the growth. MCI has an excellent history of taking on debt, converting it into equity, and taking on additional debt. The company should continue to do this, especially as it experiences astounding growth. MCIs calculated cost of equity and cost of debt are reasonable, and should allow MCI to borrow the money from the public and private sectors and put it to use growing the company. If growth does not hit target levels, MCI needs only to slow down their proposed increase in debt. If growth exceeds target levels, MCI will need to search for more capital so that it can capitalize on the new possibilities. MCI has a great opportunity ahead of itself because of the FCC breakup of AT&T, and the company needs to be ready to step into the vacuum created by the breakup. They need to obtain the required capital shown in Appendix 14, so that the company can take advantage of its growth potential.
Strengths: Execunet Service (business + residential) Tax loss carry forward Acquistions of Zerox and Western Union International Financial lending terms Lower fees to local telephone networks Weaknesses: Lack of investment capital Lack of market share
Opportunities: Residential growth in execunet Possibility of expanding market Expanding capital investment
Threats: FCC regulation AT&T abusing their power and freezing MCI out of the market GTE, ITT competition
10
Strengths: Execunet Service (business + residential) FCC Lifted restrictions High stock value $550 million in cash Weaknesses: Lack of investment capital Lack of market share Erosion of competitive advantage
Opportunities: Growth into AT&T's 95% market share Use of high stock value and $550 million cash High interest coverage ratio Use of financial policy to get investment capital MCI Mail Threats: AT&T Competition and abuse GTE, ITT competition FCC meddling Increased fees and competition from AT&T
11
12
13
1980-12 1980-11 1980-10 1980-09 1980-08 1980-07 1980-06 1980-05 1980-04 1980-03 1980-02 1980-01
-3.387 10.238 1.602 2.517 0.584 6.504 2.697 4.657 4.114 -10.179 -0.438 5.762
14
Average Yearly
0.97% 12.22%
15
1980-01-01 1980-02-01 1980-03-01 1980-04-01 1980-05-01 1980-06-01 1980-07-01 1980-08-01 1980-09-01 1980-10-01 1980-11-01 1980-12-01 1981-01-01 1981-02-01 1981-03-01 1981-04-01 1981-05-01 1981-06-01 1981-07-01 1981-08-01 1981-09-01 1981-10-01 1981-11-01 1981-12-01
12.00 12.86 15.20 13.20 8.58 7.07 8.06 9.13 10.27 11.62 13.73 15.49 15.02 14.79 13.36 13.69 16.30 14.73 14.95 15.51 14.70 13.54 10.86 10.85
AVERAGE
11.72
1982-01-01 1982-02-01 1982-03-01 1982-04-01 1982-05-01 1982-06-01 1982-07-01 1982-08-01 1982-09-01 1982-10-01 1982-11-01 1982-12-01 1983-01-01 1983-02-01 1983-03-01
12.28 13.48 12.68 12.70 12.09 12.47 11.35 8.68 7.92 7.71 8.07 7.94 7.86 8.11 8.35
16
Utilities Bonds Preferred Stock MCI A BBB Medium Bonds 9.50% 9.78% 10.48% 10.56% 10.05% 10.51% 10.97% 12.00% 11.54% 12.60% 12.32% 15.00% 12.79% 14.14% 14.32% 12.27% 14.01% 15.17% 15.12% 16.80% 17.50% 18.00% 15.85% 10.25% 16.25% 17.00% 14.93% 10.00% 14.00% 15.13% 14.11% 15.17% 12.75% 13.25% 12.51% 7.75%
17
Cash and equiv. AR Other Current Assets Plant, Equip. Other Total Assets AP Taxes Short-term debt Current Liabilities Long-term debt Deferred taxes Total Liabilities Preferred stock (par) Common stock (par) Surplus capital paid in Retained earnings Total Liabilities, net worth
Note C Note B
Note E Note C
Note A - Cash used for investment Note B - Growth based on market share Note C - Based on Exhibit 9A in Case Note D - No change in short-term debt Note E - Long term debt issued to raise funds for P&E Note F - Preferred stock kept at 0, Common stock kept at 12 Note G - Common stock sold to raise funds for P&E
18
20 13 33 1,263
1,457 80 1,537
Note A - Based on Exhibit 9A in Case Note B - Deferred Taxes increase + Employee Stock Purchase Plan Note C - Average over past 6 years Note D - Capital raised Note E - Assumed no more acquisition, just investment in P&E Note F - Adjusted for assumed need
Revenue Operating Income Interest expense Interest income Profit before tax Tax provision Net income Preferred dividends Incomefor common stock
19
Revenue Net income Assets RoS RoA RoE Debt ratio Current ratio Interest coverage
20