Crop Prospects Food Situation: Highlights

No.
2 n July 2013
Crop Prospects and Food Situation

HIGHLIGHTS
n World cereal production is forecast to increase by about 7 percent in 2013, helping to replenish global inventories and raise expectations for more stable markets in 2013/14. n International prices of wheat declined slightly in June with the onset of the 2013 harvests in the Northern Hemisphere. By contrast, maize prices increased, supported by continued tight global supplies. Export prices of rice showed mixed trends. n Cereal imports of LIFDCs for 2013/14 are estimated to rise by some 5 percent to meet growing demand; Egypt, Indonesia and Nigeria, in particular, are forecast to import more. n In the Syrian Arab Republic, the 2013 wheat production dropped significantly below average due to the escalating civil conflict leading to disruptions in farming activities. Furthermore, the livestock sector has been severely affected.
CONTENTS
Countries requiring external assistance for food Global overview 2 5
LIFDC food situation overview 8 Regional reviews Africa 11 Asia 19 Latin America and the Caribbean 24 North America, Europe and Oceania 26 Statistical appendix 29
n In North Africa, the overall crop harvest prospects are generally favourable except in Tunisia. In Egypt civil unrest and dwindling foreign exchange reserves raise serious food security concerns. n In Central Africa, serious food insecurity conditions prevail due to escalating conflict affecting about 8.4 million people in Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo. n In Western Africa, the overall food supply situation is favourable in most parts of the Sahel following a 2012 above-average cereal harvest. However, a large number of people are still affected by conflict and the lingering effects of 2011/12 food crisis. n In Eastern Africa, although household food security has improved in most countries, serious concerns remain in conflict-affected areas of Somalia, the Sudan, and South Sudan. n In Southern Africa, the overall 2013 cereal production declined slightly from last year and remained below average. However, the results are mixed across countries. In Madagascar, locust plague affected crop production in some areas. n In Far East Asia, the 2013 aggregate cereal harvest is preliminarily forecast at a record level, with significant improvements in Pakistan, the Republic of Korea and Myanmar. n In CIS, the 2013 aggregate cereal production is anticipated to recover from the drought-affected harvest of 2012. n In South America, record 2013 maize harvests are expected in most countries, including the main producers, Brazil and Argentina. n FAOs latest estimates indicate that 34 countries around the world, including 27 in Africa, are in need of external assistance for food as a result of crop failures, conflict or insecurity, natural disasters, and high domestic food prices.
Selected international cereal prices

USD/tonne
700
600
Rice
500
400
Wheat
300
Maize
200 J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J
2011
2012
2013
Note: Prices refer to monthly average. See Table 3 for details
GIEWS
global information and early warning system on food and agriculture
www.fao.org/giews
Countries requiring external assistance for food1

World: 34 countries
country requiring external assistance for food
AFRICA (27 countries) Exceptional shortfall in aggregate food production/supplies Zimbabwe Maize production in 2013 is expected to remain stagnant, at below average level, and despite relatively stable prices the production short-falls are anticipated to result in stressed food security conditions, particularly in southern parts. Widespread lack of access Bukina Faso A massive influx of refugees from Mali has put additional pressure on local food markets. Although production recovered significantly in 2012, assistance is still needed in parts, due to the lingering effects of the previous years drought-induced food crisis. Chad Lingering effects of the 2011 drought, influx of refugees (over 300 000 people from the Sudans Darfur region and the Central African Republic) and the return of an estimated 79 000 Chadians from Libya, are putting additional pressure on the local food supply affecting food security. Djibouti About 70 000 people, mainly pastoralists in the southeast and northeast areas, affected by consecutive poor rainy seasons, are estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance. Eritrea Vulnerability to food insecurity due to economic constraints and high food and fuel prices. Gambia Despite some improvement in last years national cereal production assistance is still needed to overcome the lingering effects of 2011 drought and high food prices.
Guinea Despite improved access to food in recent months, driven mostly by lower prices of imported commodities, assistance is still needed to overcome the lingering effects of several years of high food prices and general inflation. Liberia Slow recovery from war-related damages, inadequate social services and infrastructure, high food prices and poor market access, and the presence of some 60 000 Ivorian refugees in the country (as of June 2013) leads to continued international support. Malawi Persistent high food prices continue to erode purchasing power. However, economic conditions have shown some stabilisation, while 2013 maize production is estimated at an above average level and is expected to benefit food security conditions. Mali Insecurity in northern Mali has disrupted commodity flows and resulted in large population displacement, worsening the already precarious food security situation created by the 2011 drought. Mauritania Lingering effects of the 2011 sharp drop in production resulted in depletion of household assets. The country is also affected by high international food prices due to its high import dependency. Moreover, more than 74 000 Malian refugees have been registered in the southeastern part of the country.
No. 2 n July 2013
Niger The country has been struck by successive severe food crises in recent years that resulted in depletion of household assets and high level of indebtedness. In addition, large numbers of refugees and returning national migrant workers from Mali and Libya placed an increased demand on food. Sierra Leone Slow recovery from war-related damage. Depreciation of currency led to higher inflation negatively affecting households purchasing power and food security conditions. Severe localized food insecurity Burundi In some central and eastern zones, below-average 2013 season A harvest, coupled with high food prices, continue to erode purchasing power of low-income households. Cameroon In North and Far North regions, recurrent climatic shocks in recent years have negatively impacted agricultural activities. This has led to severe food insecurity and malnutrition for about 615 000 people. Central African Republic Worsening civil insecurity caused the displacement of 206 000 individuals and aggravated an already alarming food security situation. The number of food insecure people in need of humanitarian assistance has sharply increased to 2 million in recent months. Congo Despite the recovery from the floods and the explosion in the capital in 2012, the country still faces significant problems of food insecurity: 216 000 people are foodinsecure (8 percent of all households), of which 37 000 people have poor food consumption and 179 000 borderline food consumption. Cte dIvoire Conflict-related damage to agriculture in recent years and the lack of support services mainly in the northern regions. The 2011 post-election crisis forced thousands of people to leave the country and seek refuge, mostly in eastern Liberia where over 61 000 Ivorian refugees were still living as of May 2013. Democratic Republic of the Congo Escalation of conflict in recent months has displaced additional 175 000 people increasing the total number of IDPs to an estimated 2.8 million and 6.4 million people in food and livelihood crisis. Agricultural activities were hindered, especially in eastern parts, while high food prices continue to impede food access. In addition, the country has recently received about 43 000 refugees from the Central African Republic. Ethiopia About 2.4 million people are estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance, mainly located in regions such as east Amhara, Tigray, east Oromia, south Somali and sweet potato growing areas of SNNPR. Lesotho Despite a recovery in cereal production in 2013 and stable prices which contributed to improve food security conditions somewhat, assistance is still needed for vulnerable groups due to the lingering effects of two consecutive poor harvests in 2011 and 2012. Madagascar Damage caused by the locust and cyclone Hurana expected to result in reduced crop production in 2013, negatively impacting on food security conditions, particularly in southern and western parts.
Mozambique The loss of 211 000 hectares of cropped land in early 2013 due to flooding, mainly in Gaza province, negatively impacted food security conditions. However, decreasing prices and a good second season crop have improved food security in the affected areas. Senegal Production shortfalls and high food prices in 2012 led to a deterioration of the food security situation in several parts of the country. Although production recovered significantly last year, assistance is still needed in parts. Somalia About 1 million people are estimated to be in need of emergency assistance, mainly in the pastoral central and northwestern coastal areas including IDPs. South Sudan The number of people estimated as severely food insecure, mainly affected by civil insecurity, trade restrictions and floods, increased to about 1.2 million. Sudan The number of people estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance, mainly in conflict-affected areas, increased to about 4.3 million. ASIA (6 countries) Iraq Severe civil insecurity. Syrian Arab Republic Due to worsening civil conflict, about 4 million people are estimated to be facing severe food insecurity. Although, some international food assistance is provided, the Syrian refugees are also putting strain on other countries in the region.
Exceptional shortfall in aggregate food production/supplies
Widespread lack of access Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea May to August is a lean period for much of the population in the country. Despite improved cereal harvest of the 2012 main season and near normal outcome of the ongoing harvest of the 2013 early season (winter/spring), chronic food insecurity exists. An estimated 2.8 million vulnerable people require food assistance until the next harvest in October. Yemen The severely food-insecure population in need of emergency food assistance is estimated at over 10 million people (46 percent of the population) as a result of high levels of poverty, prolonged conflict and high prices of food and fuel. Severe localized food insecurity Afghanistan Some groups, particularly IDPs displaced by the conflict, returnees from Pakistan and natural disaster-affected households are faced with increased food insecurity Kyrgyzstan Despite the expected good cereal harvest, the high food prices are still affecting the purchasing power of the poorest and vulnerable families. In addition, socio-political tensions still exist in Jalalabad, Osh, Batken and Issykul Oblasts. LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN (1 country) Exceptional shortfall in aggregate food production/ supplies
Severe localized food insecurity Haiti Vulnerable households affected by sharply reduced 2012 food production, increasing food prices and lingering effects of damage caused by hurricanes in 2012.
No. 2 n July 2013
Countries with unfavourable prospects for current crops2 (total: 1 country)

AFRICA (1 country) Tunisia Inadequate rain during the planting season led to decreased planted area. Although climatic conditions for the rest of the season remained favourable, a reduction in crop production is expected. +
Key - Changes since last report (March 2013)

No change Improving Deteriorating New Entry +
Terminology
1
Countries requiring external assistance for food are expected to lack the resources to deal with reported critical problems of food insecurity. Food crises are nearly always due to a combination of factors but for the purpose of response planning, it is important to establish whether the nature of food crises is predominantly related to lack of food availability, limited access to food, or severe but localized problems. Accordingly, the list of countries requiring external assistance is organized into three broad, not mutually exclusive, categories: Countries facing an exceptional shortfall in aggregate food production/ supplies as a result of crop failure, natural disasters, interruption of imports, disruption of distribution, excessive post-harvest losses, or other supply bottlenecks. Countries with widespread lack of access, where a majority of the population is considered to be unable to procure food from local markets, due to very low incomes, exceptionally high food prices, or the inability to circulate within the country. Countries with severe localized food insecurity due to the influx of refugees, a concentration of internally displaced persons, or areas with combinations of crop failure and deep poverty.
Countries facing unfavourable prospects for current crops are countries where prospects point to a shortfall in production of current crops as a result of a reduction of the area planted and/or yields due to adverse weather conditions, plant pests, diseases and other calamities.
No. 2 n July 2013
Global overview
Forecast large recovery in wheat and maize production will boost global cereal supplies in 2013/14
As the 2013 cereal seasons progress around the globe, the latest data continue to point to a significant increase in world cereal production to 2479million tonnes, 7.2 percent above the estimated output in the previous year and a new record. FAO now puts world wheat output in 2013 at 704million tonnes, an increase of 6.8percent, which more than recoups the previous years reduction and represents the highest level in history. By far, the bulk of the increase this year is expected to originate in Europe, as overall prospects remain favourable in the EU and outputs in the major producing CIS countries are forecast to rebound sharply from droughtreduced levels in 2012. The outlook is also positive in Canada, Australia and Argentina - other major exporters - and in most other major wheat producing and consuming countries. The main exception is the United States, where wheat crop growth has been hindered by adverse weather conditions drought in particular - this season. World production of coarse grains in 2013 is now forecast at about 1 275 million tonnes, up sharply (9.7 percent) from 2012. Latest estimates confirm increased harvests in Argentina and Brazil, the two major producing countries in the Southern Hemisphere, while a smaller crop has been harvested in South Africa. Elsewhere, increased outputs are forecast among the major Northern Hemisphere producing countries. In the United States, where maize plantings increased and yields are expected to return to normal after last years drought-reduced levels, production is expected to recover markedly. Maize output is also set to increase in China, which accounts for the bulk of the
Asia Far East Near East CIS in Asia Africa North Africa Western Africa Central Africa Eastern Africa Southern Africa Central America and Caribbean South America North America Europe EU CIS in Europe Oceania World Developing countries Developed countries - wheat - coarse grains - rice (milled)
1
3.4 percent from the 2012/13 estimated level to 2415 million tonnes. Most of this increase would reflect higher feed use, which is projected to absorb 843 million
production in Asia, and in the EU, where prospects are particularly favourable in the large maize producing areas of Romania and Hungary. World rice production in 2013 is forecast to expand by 1.9 percent to 500million tonnes (milled equivalent) with strong gains in all regions except Europe and North America. However, prospects are still very provisional, as July and August are critical for the development of the northern hemisphere main paddy crops. In addition, production growth this season could be dampened by expectations of falling prices and recent policy changes that may encourage farmers to shift to other crops. World cereal utilization in the 2013/14 season is likely to expand by
tonnes, 5.8percent more than in 2012/13. Utilization of cereals for food is forecast to expand by 1.5 percent, to 1 099 million tonnes, which would lift world per caput consumption average from 152.5 kg in 2012/13 to 153.3 kg in 2013/14. Other uses of cereals, including industrial use and post-harvest losses are projected to reach 473million tonnes, up 3.7percent from 2012/13. The current forecast for total world cereal utilization in 2013/14 is 13million tonnes above the figure published in June. The revision concerns mainly coarse grains, with 1 229 million tonnes now expected to be consumed, 12 million tonnes more than was forecast in June and 56 million tonnes, or 4.8 percent, above 2012/13. The upward adjustment
Table 1. World cereal production1

(million tonnes)
2011 1 074.8 964.1 70.1 40.6 158.1 35.4 49.8 4.7 37.7 30.5 35.2 149.4 432.6 462.4 288.5 157.2 43.4 2 355.8 1 354.7 1 001.1 701.5 1 168.7 485.6 2012 estimate 1 093.1 997.1 69.0 27.1 166.1 34.2 55.3 4.6 41.7 30.2 39.9 156.2 406.0 416.4 275.1 125.4 34.6 2 312.2 1 404.2 908.0 659.3 1 162.4 490.5 2013 forecast 1 113.5 1 008.9 72.5 32.2 168.9 37.9 55.3 4.8 41.3 29.7 41.1 173.8 475.2 467.9 300.5 153.1 38.2 2 478.6 1 442.1 1 036.5 704.1 1 274.8 499.7 Change: 2013 over 2012 (%) 1.9 1.2 5.1 18.9 1.7 10.7 -0.2 3.4 -0.9 -1.9 2.9 11.3 17.1 12.4 9.2 22.0 10.5 7.2 2.7 14.2 6.8 9.7 1.9
Note: Totals and percentage change computed from unrounded data. Includes rice in milled terms.
No. 2 n July 2013
Figure 1. World cereal production and utilization

Million tonnes
Figure 2. Ratio of world cereal stocks to utilization1

%
Rice % 36
32 28
reflects stronger projected growth in feed use of coarse grains in the EU, mostly on improved barley and maize supplies in the new season. Compared to 2012/13, the increase in world feed use of coarse grains in 2013/14 would be supported by greater production, while its industrial applications, especially for production of maize-based ethanol, are also forecast to rebound after a decline in 2012/13. Wheat utilization is projected to reach 695million tonnes, up 1.4percent from 2012/13 and close to the previous forecast. Rice utilization is put at 491.5million tonnes, up 2.8percent from 2012/13 but unchanged from the figure released in June. The forecast for world cereal stocks by the close of seasons in 2014 has changed little since the previous report in June. Early indications for the new season still point to a sharp rebound of world cereal inventories, up 11.5percent, or 58million tonnes, from their relatively low opening
2500 2400 2300 2200 2100
36 32 28
Wheat
24 20 16 24
Total cereals 20 Coarse grains

16 12
2000
12
1900
09/10
10/11
11/12
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
fcast
2013
12/13 estimate
13/14 2
fcast
Production Utilization
1 Compares closing stocks with utilization in following season. 2 Utilization in 2013/14 is a trend value based on extrapolation from the 2002/03-2012/13 period.
Table 2. Basic facts of world cereal situation

(million tonnes) 2011/12 PRODUCTION 1 World Developing countries Developed countries TRADE 2 World Developing countries Developed countries UTILIZATION World Developing countries Developed countries Per caput cereal food use (kg per year) STOCKS 3 World Developing countries Developed countries WORLD STOCK-TO-USE RATIO%
1
levels, to reach 567.5 million tonnes. If realized, this would be the highest level
2013/14 forecast Change: 2013/14 over 2012/13 (%)
2012/13 estimate
since 2001/02. At nearly 216 million tonnes, coarse grains inventories would account for the bulk of the expansion in stocks from the previous season, with the latest forecast pointing to even larger ending stocks than reported in June. Wheat and rice inventories are also foreseen to expand significantly, to 169.5 million tonnes and 182.4 million tonnes, respectively. The forecast for wheat stocks
2 355.8 1 354.7 1 001.1
2 312.2 1 404.2 908.0
2 478.6 1 442.1 1 036.5
7.2 2.7 14.2
317.3 100.3 217.0
305.2 124.2 181.0
306.5 113.6 192.9
0.4 -8.6 6.6
2 329.8 1 474.2 855.6 152.2
2 335.8 1 497.6 838.3 152.5
2 414.9 1 544.3 870.6 153.3
3.4 3.1 3.9 0.5
in 2014 has been lowered somewhat, mostly on higher anticipated consumption in 2013/14. Overall, the recovery in world inventories could boost the cereals world stock-to-use ratio to 23.2percent, up two percentage points from 2012/13. The rise would be particularly important for coarse grains, with its stock-to-use ratio reaching 17.3 percent, 3.2 percentage points higher than the historical low ratio of 14.1percent in 2012/13. Global cereal trade in 2013/14 marketing season is forecast to reach 306.5 million tonnes, up slightly from 2012/13 and nearly unchanged from the
520.2 372.8 147.3 22.3
509.2 395.6 113.6 21.1
567.5 417.3 150.2 23.2
11.5 5.5 32.2 10.0
Note: Totals and percentage change computed from unrounded data.

Data refer to calendar year of the first year shown and include rice in milled terms. 2 For wheat and coarse grains, trade refers to exports based on July/June marketing season. For rice, trade refers to exports based on the calendar year of the second year shown. 3 Data are based on an aggregate of carryovers level at the end of national crop years and, therefore, do not represent world stock levels at any point in time.
No. 2 n July 2013
previous report. World wheat trade in 2013/14 (July/June) is likely to contract by about 2.6percent to 136million tonnes, with most of the anticipated decline stemming from sharply reduced purchases by the Islamic Republic of Iran, following a surge of wheat purchases in 2012/13. By contrast, world trade in coarse grains is seen to expand by 3.8 percent to an alltime high of 133 million tonnes in 2013/14. Trade in maize alone could exceed the previous record registered in 2011/12 and approach 103million tonnes, fuelled by larger imports for feed by China, Indonesia, and Mexico. Although very preliminary, global rice trade in 2014 is forecast to remain unchanged around the 2013 level of 37.5million tonnes.
Table 3. Cereal export prices*

(USD/tonne) 2012 June United States Wheat1 Maize2 Sorghum2 Argentina3 Wheat Maize Thailand4 Rice, white5 Rice, broken6
1 2
Jan. 348 303 287 362 294 611 558
Feb. 329 303 288 358 283 616 562
2013 March April 323 309 297 346 276 594 557 324 282 261 324 242 586 551
May 329 295 254 315 257 574 539
June 321 300 246 310 264 550 518
288 268 234 263 239 619 545
*Prices refer to the monthly average. No.2 Hard Red Winter (Ordinary Protein) f.o.b. Gulf. No.2 Yellow, Gulf. 3 Up river, f.o.b. 4 Indicative traded prices. 5 100% second grade, f.o.b. Bangkok. 6 A1 super, f.o.b. Bangkok.
INTERNATIONAL PRICE ROUNDUP Wheat prices decreased slightly while those of maize rose further in June; export prices of rice followed mixed trends according to origin
Export prices of wheat from the United States declined slightly in June, with the benchmark US wheat price (No.2 Hard Red Winter, f.o.b.) averaging USD 321 per tonne, 2 percent lower than in the previous month but still remained 12 percent higher than in June 2012. The decline followed the onset of the 2013 winter wheat crop harvests in the northern hemisphere and expectations of large supplies in 2013/14. However, the downward pressure on prices was partially offset by the harvest delays and concerns about a reduction in the 2013 spring crop
plantings in the United States. Export prices from the Black Sea region and Argentina remained virtually unchanged or declined slightly in June. International maize prices increased somewhat for the second consecutive month in June. The benchmark US maize value (US No.2, Yellow) averaged USD300 per tonne, 2 percent up on its May level and 12percent higher than a year earlier. The increase reflects a continued tight supply situation, which may persist until the arrival of new maize crops in October. However, a stronger US dollar and the forecast for a sharp rebound in maize production limited the increase in prices. International rice prices were generally stable in June, with the FAO All Rice Price Index averaging 241 points, unchanged from May, as stronger quotations of Japonica rice largely compensated for
a weakening of both lower and higher quality Indica rice. The benchmark Thai export price (Thai white rice 100%B) fell, as did virtually all Thai rice quotations, partly a reflection of the Baht depreciation against the US dollar. Thailands announcement on 18June of a 20percent cut in the official procurement price under the rice pledging programme, although it was revoked later, also contributed to depressing the Thai rice quotations. At the June value of USD550 per tonne, the Thai white rice 100% B subsided 4 percent compared to May, dropping to its lowest level since January 2012. With the exception of Pakistan, where shortages of quality rice tended to lift prices, those quoted in other origins, including South American suppliers and the United States, also recoiled.
No. 2 n July 2013
Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries food situation overview1

2013 aggregate cereal harvest of LIFDCs is expected to remain similar to last years level
Harvesting of the main winter cereal crops, mainly wheat and barley, in the countries of northern hemisphere and of the main summer (rainy) season crops, primarily coarse grains, in countries of the Southern Hemisphere is expected to continue until July. Sowing of the main rainy season summer crops, mainly rice and coarse grains, is underway in Northern Hemisphere countries and secondary season winter crops are currently being planted in the Southern Hemisphere. With the bulk of the 2013 cereal crops still to be planted, FAOs early forecast for the 2013 cereal production of all 62 LIFDCs as a group, points to a crop of about 543 million tonnes, similar to the record harvest of 2012. This good level is mainly attributed to an increase in plantings so far, adequate supplies of fertilizer and other inputs, and a favourable weather forecast in most LIFDCs. Among the regions, following satisfactory weather conditions, the early outlook for good harvests are forecast in North Africa (in Egypt, the only LIFDC) and all CIS Asia countries. In the Far East, the latest projections point to a near-record aggregate crop for the subregions LIFDCs of approximately 384 million tonnes, similar to last years record level. Prospects for bumper cereal harvests are foreseen in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nepal, the Philippines and Sri Lanka, where rainfall for the winter crops was generally good and early forecasts of the second season crops are considered favourable. In India, the latest official forecast reports a slight decrease from last years record harvest in the Rabi season wheat production,
but still the second best crop on record. Similarly, early prospects for the 2013 cereal production in Central America and the Near East are generally favourable. In Southern Africa, expectations for the 2013 cereal crops are generally satisfactory in most countries, following a near average output in 2012. However, the cereal production is expected to decline in Madagascar and Zambia, due to uneven rains and damages caused by pest infestation. In Eastern, Central and Western Africa, where planting of the main season cereal crops is underway, the overall prospects for the 2013 cereal crops are uncertain at this point, depending on the performance of the seasonal rains in the next few months. The 2012 cereal production of the LIFDCs as a group has been revised upwards from the estimate reported in the March issue of this publication to a new record level of 543 million tonnes, representing an improvement of 4.3 percent over the good production in 2011.
Cereal imports of LIFDCs for 2013/14 forecast to increase given the growing demand and stagnant production
The cereal imports of LIFDCs for 2013/14 (marketing years) are estimated to rise to 78.7million tonnes, some 5percent above the previous years level but similar to the average level of the preceding five years. This is based on the expectation of larger imports particularly by large importing countries such as Egypt, Indonesia and Nigeria. In Egypt, the anticipated increase in 2013/14 cereal imports is mostly in coarse grains and wheat, preliminarily forecast to increase by 21and 6percent, respectively, compared to the 2012/13 levels. Similarly, in Eastern Africa and Southern Africa, import requirements are estimated to increase, due to expectations of a smaller domestic harvest in some
Table 4. Basic facts of the Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries (LIFDCs) cereal situation (million tonnes, rice in milled basis)
2011/12 Cereal production1 excluding India Utilization Food use excluding India Per caput cereal food use (kg per year) excluding India Feed excluding India End of season stocks2 excluding India
1 2
2012/13 estimate 543.0 301.8 589.5 468.6 274.5 0.2 0.2 53.2 46.1 114.9 63.7
2013/14 forecast 543.3 305.0 601.1 479.2 280.2 0.2 0.2 53.9 46.7 109.8 61.0
Change: 2013/14 over 2012/13 (%) 0.1 1.1 2.0 2.3 2.1 1.2 0.1 1.4 1.2 -4.4 -4.2
520.7 286.1 573.3 455.1 266.9 0.2 0.2 52.0 45.1 111.8 67.2
Data refer to calendar year of the first year shown. May not equal the difference between supply and utilization because of differences in individual country marketing years.
1
The Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries (LIFDCs) group includes net food deficit countries with annual per caput income below the level used by World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. USD 1915 in 2010). The 2013 FAO list of LIFDCs includes 62 countries as opposed to 66 on the 2012 list. For full details see: http://www. fao.org/countryprofiles/lifdc.asp.
No. 2 n July 2013
Table 5. Cereal production1 of LIFDCs

(million tonnes)
2011 Africa (39 countries) North Africa Eastern Africa Southern Africa Western Africa Central Africa Asia (17 countries) CIS in Asia Far East - India Near East Central America (3 countries) Oceania (3 countries) LIFDC (62 countries)
1
from the 78.7 million tonnes estimate reported in March.

2012 estimate 136.6 21.1 41.7 13.9 55.3 4.6 404.5 9.6 384.6 241.2 10.3 1.8 0.0 543.0 2013 forecast 136.7 21.3 41.3 14.1 55.3 4.8 404.5 9.9 384.0 238.4 10.6 2.1 0.0 543.3 Change: 2013 over 2012 (%) 0.1 1.1 -0.9 1.4 -0.2 3.4 0.0 2.2 -0.1 -1.2 2.8 13.7 0.0 0.1
As seen from Figure 3, a total of 31LIFDCs have been listed as having very high cereal import dependency, measured by the import share in the past five years averaging 30percent or higher in the total domestic utilization. Of these, the bulk of the countries are in Africa (19), Asia (6) and elsewhere (6). These countries are more vulnerable to food insecurity, caused by high food prices, and, thus, require constant monitoring. Particularly, there are 10countries that are expected to see a rise in their 2013/14 cereal import share above their average share and, therefore, making them more at risk to world price hikes. These countries, especially, require close monitoring. A sharp increase in the
127.5 20.0 37.6 15.4 49.8 4.7 391.0 9.4 372.6 234.6 9.1 2.2 0.0 520.7
Note: Totals and percentage change computed from unrounded data. Includes rice in milled terms.
countries. Only CIS-in-Asia subregion is expected to experience slightly lower import requirements, mainly on account of favourable estimates of the 2013 cereal output. Elsewhere, in Central Africa, Central America, Oceania and the Near East, cereal purchases are anticipated to
remain virtually unchanged from 2012. Consistent with the record domestic production of cereals in 2012 for the LIFDCs as a whole, the 2012/13 cereal imports are estimated at 75million tonnes, 14percent lower than the 2011/12 actual imports. This has been revised downwards
import share is forecast for Burundi, Eritrea, Nicaragua and Yemen. By contrast, the share of cereal imports in total domestic utilization is forecast to decrease markedly in Mongolia, Mauritania and Sao Tome and Principe due to improved domestic supplies.
Table 6. Cereal import position of LIFDCs

(thousand tonnes)
2011/12 or 2012 Actual imports Africa (39 countries) North Africa Eastern Africa Southern Africa Western Africa Central Africa Asia (17 countries) CIS in Asia Far East Near East Central America (3 countries) Oceania (3 countries) Total (62 countries) 46 605 18 871 8 016 2 501 15 358 1 859 38 504 4 740 22 703 11 060 1 696 442 87 247 2012/13 or 2013 Requirements1 Total imports: 40 003 13 421 7 688 2 340 14 533 2 021 32 727 3 439 19 176 10 112 1 854 442 75 025 of which food aid 1 725 0 1 115 174 288 148 709 5 538 166 142 0 2 576 Import position2 Total imports: 15 262 9 205 2 396 1 079 2 226 356 16 056 2 693 10 315 3 047 662 60 32 040 of which food aid pledges 583 0 331 151 70 32 368 4 305 60 15 0 967 2013/14 or 2014 Requirements1 Total imports: 42 590 14 871 8 290 2 454 14 937 2 039 33 802 3 393 20 092 10 317 1 886 447 78 725 of which food aid 1 926 0 1 311 179 288 148 708 1 541 166 173 0 2 806
Note: Totals computed from unrounded data. 1 The import requirement is the difference between utilization (food, feed, other uses, export plus closing stocks) and domestic availability (production plus opening stocks).
2
Estimates based on information available as of early June 2013.
No. 2 n July 2013
Figure 3. Share of imports in total domestic utilization of cereals (where average share is 30 percent or more)
Average 2008/09-2012/13
100
Import requirement share in 2013/14 higher than average Import requirement share in 2013/14 similar to average Import requirement share in 2013/14 lower than average
80
60
40
20
ib ou ti C ea on nd go Pr in ci Co pe m M oro au s rit an Le ia so th So o m ali a L C ibe te ria D' ivo ir Er e itr ea Gu Sen in ega ea -B l iss au Eg yp Ga t m bi a De K m e n .Re ya p. Co ng Bu o ru nd Su i d Zim an ba bw e
oT om
Sa
Africa (19)
Asia (6)
Pa p
ua
Ne
10
No. 2 n July 2013
in e K a So irib lom ati on Is. Ho Hait nd i Ni ura ca s ra gu a
en Ira q Ta jik ist an Bh u M tan on go Sr lia iL an ka
Ye m
Dj
Gu
Others (6)
Regional reviews
Africa
North Africa
Favourable crop prospects in most countries except in Tunisia
Harvesting of the 2013 winter cereal crops started June in most countries of the subregion and will continue until July. Early forecasts indicate a recovery from last years weather-affected poor harvests. In Morocco, Algeria and Egypt, early forecasts for wheat production point to above average harvests, despite the drought affecting some eastern regions in Algeria. Farmers in Morocco also benefited from the increased use of certified seeds that improved yields. In Egypt, although the harvest is progressing well, farmers have expressed doubts that the harvest will be as large as forecasted by the Government. By contrast, in Tunisia, wheat production is forecast at a level below average, and to decline from last years exceptional wheat harvest due mostly to inadequate rains during planting. Overall, FAO forecasts the subregions aggregate wheat output at 20.7million tonnes, 15.4percent up on last years good crop, and 19.1percent up on the previous five-year average. The barley crop is forecast at about 4.9 million tonnes, 32.6 percent and 9.8percent above last year and the preceding five-year average, respectively.
North Africa small grains: harvesting rice: vegetative Western Africa Sahel: coarse grains, rice (main season): planting coastal countries: coarse grains,rice (main season): reproductive Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea: cereals (main): planting Ethiopia: Belg grains (minor): harvesting Burundi, Rwanda main season crop: harvesting Kenya, Somalia: cereals (main season): Uganda, Tanzania reproductive to maturing main cereal crop: maturing/ harvesting
Central Africa - northern parts maize (main season): harvesting millet, sorghum: planting rice: planting - DRC maize (main season): planting sorghum, millet: reproductive
Note: Comments refer to situation as of July.
Southern Africa: winter cereals (secondary season): early vegetative stage
exchange reserves, especially in Egypt and Tunisia may result in increased restrictions on transactions by its Central Bank, thus curtailing the imports.
Food inflation increases across the subregion

An increasing trend in food inflation was noted in the subregion in the last several months. Although in Algeria in May 2013, the food price index decreased by 1.6 compared to the previous month, it increased by 3.2 percent compared to the previous year. The year-on-year price increase, for bread and cereals, was 3.9 percent in May 2013 while red meat prices increased by almost 17percent. In Egypt, the annual food and beverage inflation rate in May2013 reached about 9percent compared to 7.9percent in January 2013. The increase was attributed to the depreciating exchange rate and bottlenecks in fuel distribution. In Morocco, the food inflation rose by 3.4percent in the 12months
Cereal import requirements expected to remain similar to last year

North African countries rely heavily on wheat imports from the international markets to cover their consumption needs, with Egypt being the worlds largest importer. Despite the good prospects for 2013 crops in several countries, the cereal import requirements for the 2013/14 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at similar levels to last year partly on account of the annual increase in population size. However, dwindling foreign
Table 7. North Africa cereal production

(million tonnes) Wheat
2011 North Africa Algeria Egypt Morocco Tunisia 18.8 2.8 8.4 6.0 1.6 2012 estim. 17.9 3.4 8.8 3.9 1.8 2013 f'cast 20.7 3.6 9.4 6.5 1.2
Coarse grains
2011 12.6 1.5 7.8 2.6 0.7 2012 estim. 11.7 1.6 7.8 1.4 0.8 2013 f'cast 12.5 1.9 7.3 2.8 0.4
Rice (paddy)
2011 5.7 0.0 5.7 0.1 0.0 2012 estim. 6.6 0.0 6.5 0.1 0.0 2013 f'cast 6.8 0.0 6.8 0.1 0.0 2011 37.2 4.2 21.8 8.6 2.3
Total cereals
2012 estim. 36.3 5.0 23.1 5.3 2.6 2013 f'cast 40.0 5.5 23.4 9.4 1.5 Change: 2013/2012 (%) 10.3 9.1 1.3 76.0 -41.3
No. 2 n July 2013
11
to May 2013, against 3percent in April2013 and 1.5percent in August 2012. In Tunisia, the year-on-year food and beverage prices in May2013 climbed 8percent. Despite increasing food price inflation, bread and cereal inflation across the subregion remains low partly due to the large food subsidies by the governments. While subsidies are likely to remain, there is an ongoing discussion about their costs (including the large import bill and administrative costs) and the related food waste, pointing to possible reforms of the subsidy schemes.
production was estimated at about 22.5 million tonnes, about 37 percent up on the 2011 drought-affected harvest, and a 28 percent increase relative to the five-year average. Bumper cereal harvests were gathered in most Sahelian countries, including Burkina Faso, Chad, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger and Senegal. Production was also good in most coastal countries along the Gulf of Guinea, except in Nigeria where heavy rains and floods led to a 9percent drop in the rice output compared to 2011. In Nigeria, maize, cassava, and yam were also seriously affected.
Western Africa
Favourable early prospects for 2013 cereal crops
Planting of the first 2013 maize crop, to be harvested from July, was completed in May in southern parts of the coastal countries. Planting of coarse grains is progressing northwards in these countries following the onset of the rains. By contrast, seasonably dry conditions prevail in most of the Sahelian zone where planting usually starts in June/July. Elsewhere, weather conditions have been mostly favourable so far, notably in the coastal countries along the Gulf of Guinea, where the main season maize crop is developing satisfactorily. Adequate weather conditions are expected to continue according to the joint forecast by the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD) and the Agrhymet Centre. For the Sahelian region, which receives about 80 percent of its annual precipitation in the months July-September, there is an increased probability, this year, of normal to above-normal rainfall. For coastal countries along the Gulf of Guinea, near normal rainfall is forecast. In short, overall early crop prospects are favourable in West Africa, but risk of floods is also elevated.
Cereal markets disrupted by insecurity in Nigeria

The reduction in supplies from last years flood-affected crop was compounded by civil insecurity in Nigeria, leading to a tight cereal market in the eastern part of the subregion. Coarse grains prices increased significantly over the past few months in Nigeria following disruptions in commodity movements and cross-border trade flows. In the main northern market of Kano, maize prices have been rising since October 2012, and in May 2013 prices were 10percent above last years already high levels. Similarly in Niger, millet prices have been following an upward trend since November 2012, and in June 2013 prices were 4percent up on last year. Government procurements of millet from farmers, to build up National Security Stocks, coupled with reduced imports from Nigeria, have reinforced price increases in Niger. In Benin, increased cereal import demand from neighbouring Niger and Nigeria has put upward pressure on prices. Maize prices in Cotonou in May were 12 percent above their levels of a year earlier. Elsewhere in the subregion, coarse grains prices continued to follow seasonable patterns in general with stable or declining prices of millet and sorghum in May in most Sahelian countries. For example, millet prices in Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso) and Bamako (Mali) in early June were 25percent and 35percent, respectively, below their levels in June 2012. Similarly, in Chad, millet prices in May were well below their levels a year earlier in most markets. In Togo, cereal prices have Total cereals 1 been low in most markets, and maize prices in Lom in May were about 7 percent below their levels a year earlier. In Mauritania, sorghum prices in Nouakchott in May 2013 were 7 percent lower than a year earlier, reflecting an adequate supply. Prices of imported rice, mainly consumed in urban
Good cereal harvest gathered in 2012

Latest official estimates put the subregions aggregate 2012 cereal output, consisting mostly of coarse grains, at about 60 million tonnes, slightly lower than the 2010 bumper crop but 10percent up on the 2011 production. In the Sahel, aggregate 2012 cereal
Table 8. Western Africa cereal production

(million tonnes) Coarse grains
2011 Western Africa 2012 2013 estim. f'cast 47.1 4.6 3.0 2.4 4.7 5.3 21.2 46.6 4.0 2.8 2.3 4.4 5.1 22.1
Rice (paddy)
2011 12.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.7 0.1 4.6 2012 2013 estim. f'cast 12.7 0.3 0.2 0.5 1.9 0.1 4.2 13.4 0.3 0.2 0.5 2.2 0.1 4.4 2011 54.3 3.7 1.7 2.6 5.8 3.6 26.7
2012 2013 estim. f'cast 60.0 4.9 3.2 2.9 6.7 5.3 25.5 60.2 4.4 3.0 2.8 6.6 5.2 26.6
Change: 2013/2012 (%)
Burkina Faso
Chad
Ghana Mali Niger Nigeria
42.0 3.4 1.5 2.2 4.0 3.5 22.1
0.3 -10.6 -5.0 -4.1 -1.1 -3.4 4.1
Note: Totals and percentage change computed from unrounded data. 1 Total cereals includes wheat, coarse grains and rice (paddy).
12
No. 2 n July 2013
Figure 4. Millet prices in selected Western African markets

CFA Franc BCEAO (XOF)/100kg 32000 Burkina Faso
Ouagadougou
status of the population. Despite the good crop gathered in 2012, several segments of the population still need food and non-food assistance to restore their livelihoods. Implementations of income generation and asset rebuilding activities for food insecure and vulnerable people need to continue in most countries.
Mali 28000
Bamako
Central Africa
Favourable weather conditions at the start of the 2013 cropping season
The sowing of the 2013 main maize crop began in March in southern regions of Cameroon and Central African Republic (CAR). So far the overall growing conditions have been favourable in both countries; however, while a good crop, to be harvested from July, is expected in Cameroon, in CAR crop production is likely to be negatively affected by persisting civil insecurity, which disrupted agricultural activities and caused input shortages. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the harvest of the second season crops is almost complete in the centre and in the south, while its about to start in the north. Judging from the satellite imagery, the northern and southern regions received favourable rainfall, while in central areas precipitation has been
Niger
Niamey
24000
20000
16000
12000
J J A S O N D J F MAM J J A S O N D J F MAM J 2013 2011 2012
Source: Afrique Verte.
centres, have remained stable in recent months in both the Sahel and the coastal countries.
below normal. In Congo and Gabon, where the harvest of the second season crops has just started, well distributed rainfall was received. However, in both of these countries, the bulk of the national cereal utilization requirement is imported.
Food security in the region affected by civil insecurity in Mali and northern part of Nigeria
In spite of last years good harvests, the food security situation remains difficult in parts, due to insecurity and the lingering effects of the food crisis of 2011/12. Current conflict in Mali has resulted in large population displacements in the subregion. As of early May 2013, more than 174 000 Malian refugees had been registered in neighbouring countries, including 74 108 in Mauritania, 50 000 in Niger and 49975 in Burkina Faso. In addition, over 300000 people are estimated to have been internally displaced. There was also a massive displacement of herders and their livestock to neighbouring countries. Similarly, in Nigeria, the ongoing civil insecurity in the northern part of the country has led to a significant population as well commodity displacement as disruptions in movement and
Satisfactory 2012 harvests with localized production shortfalls

The harvesting of the 2012 secondary season maize crops was completed last January in Cameroon and Central African Republic, while in Gabon, the Republic of Congo and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the main 2012 season crops were harvested in January/February. Following abundant rainfall, average to above-average cereal outputs were estimated in all countries of the subregion. However, in the unimodal northern Cameroon, the 2012 cereal crop was negatively affected in some areas by floods during September, while in areas of eastern and
Table 9. Central Africa cereal production

(million tonnes) Coarse grains
2011 2012 2013 estim. f'cast 4.3 2.8 0.2 1.2 4.4 2.9 0.2 1.3
cross-border trade. Moreover, the severe food crisis that struck the Sahel in 2011/12 (similar to 2004/05 and 2009/10) has had an adverse long-term impact on household assets and savings, on levels of indebtedness, and on the health and nutritional
Central Africa Cameroon Central Africa Rep.
Dem.Rep.of the Congo
Rice (paddy)
2011 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.3 2012 2013 estim. f'cast 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.3 2011 4.9 3.0 0.2 1.6
Total cereals 1
2012 2013 Change: estim. f'cast 2013/2012 (%) 4.8 3.0 0.2 1.6 5.0 3.1 0.2 1.6 3.5 5.3 0.4 0.6
4.4 2.8 0.2 1.3
No. 2 n July 2013
13
northern Central African Republic the harvest of the secondary season crops was disrupted and damaged in December as a result of the conflict. The total cereal production in the subregion is estimated at 4.8 million tonnes, similar to the previous years good output.
conflicts in North and South Kivu and in Katanga provinces in recent months. Two-thirds of them (about 4.2million persons) are considered severely food insecure. The food insecure are mostly concentrated in the provinces of North and South Kivu, Oriental, East and West Kasai, Katanga, Equateur and Bandudu. As of early June the total number of IDPs are estimated at 2.8million and the refugees from the Central African Republic at about 43000 people. WFP had launched an Emergency Operation which will provide food assistance to 1.2million beneficiaries for ten months until June 2013.
Higher inflation in 2013 following relatively low prices the previous year
In the Democratic Republic of Congo, prices of cereals increased sharply in recent months in areas affected by civil insecurity, reaching record levels. In June, prices of maize in Bunia in the eastern Ituri province, and Lubumbashi in the southern Katanga province, were about 144 and 52 percent higher, respectively, than in other relatively peaceful areas of the country. In the Central African Republic, the average inflation rate, which rose from 1.3percent in 2011 to 5percent in 2012, driven by increased food prices, is forecast to rise further in 2013 to 8percent, due to the deterioration in civil security and the market disruptions. In Gabon and in the Republic of the Congo, the average inflation rates, which increased from the very low levels of 2011 to up to 5percent in 2012, driven by high commodity and import prices, are forecast to stabilize in 2013. Average inflation is forecast to remain stable in 2013 also in Cameroon and in Equatorial Guinea.
Eastern Africa
Outlook improves for crops and pastures
Planting of the 2013 main season crops was concluded in April/ May in Somalia (gu), Kenya (long rains), southern South Sudan (in the green belt), northern United Republic of Tanzania (masika) and in the Karamoja region in northeastern Uganda. In these areas, crops to be harvested from July/August are generally in good condition following beneficial rains between March and May and production prospects are put at average to above average levels. One exception is the Karamoja region in Uganda, where rains were erratic, which caused water logging in some lowland areas and a prolonged dry spell between May and June in some other areas. With the arrival of June to September rains, the planting of the 2013 main season crops is underway in western Ethiopia, Eritrea, northern South Sudan and the Sudan. Harvesting operations are scheduled between October and January and seasonal rains are anticipated to be average to above average levels. In most cropping areas, seasonal March to May rains started on time (and in some areas two to three weeks earlier than usual) and were often well distributed and abundant, with a positive impact on crop establishment and development. In most pastoral and agro-pastoral areas of the subregion, favourable rains have also replenished water catchments and significantly improved
Worsening civil security aggravates an already alarming food security situation

Civil security deteriorated in recent months in CAR and in DRC, disrupting agricultural activities and restricting households access to food. In addition, humanitarian interventions were severely affected, compounding the impact on vulnerable groups. In CAR, the civil conflict underway since December 2012 escalated further from late March 2013, when armed skirmishes spread to the whole country. As a result, the number of food insecure people in need of humanitarian assistance (IPC Phase 3, Crisis, and 4, Emergency) sharply increased from 664 000 in February 2013 to 2 million in June, with the number of internally displaced persons (IDP) reaching 206 000 in late March. In response, WFP is providing food assistance to 715000 beneficiaries. In DRC, the number of food insecure people in need of humanitarian assistance (IPC Phases3 and 4) was estimated at about 6.4million as of June 2013, with an increase of about 75 000 people compared to October 2012 mostly driven by the escalation of armed
Eastern Africa Ethiopia Kenya Sudan 2 Tanzania U.R. Uganda
2011 4.0 3.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Table 10. Eastern Africa cereal production

2012 2013 estim. f'cast 4.3 3.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.7 3.6 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Coarse grains
2011 32.3 16.7 3.7 2.5 5.4 2.5 2012 2013 estim. f'cast 36.2 17.4 3.9 5.7 5.5 2.6 35.2 17.5 3.6 4.8 5.3 2.6 2011 38.4 20.0 4.1 2.9 6.9 2.8
Total cereals 1
2012 2013 estim. f'cast 42.3 21.1 4.3 5.9 6.7 2.9 42.0 21.2 4.0 5.3 6.8 2.9
Change: 2013/2012 (%)
-0.7 0.8 -6.8 -10.9 2.0 1.4
Note: Totals and percentage change computed from unrounded data. 1 Total cereals includes wheat, coarse grains and rice (paddy). 2 Including South Sudan.
14
No. 2 n July 2013
pastures, with positive effects on livestock body conditions and milk production. Torrential rains in April and May caused localized flooding and water logging in parts, destroying infrastructure, washing away crops and livestock and displacing about 225000 people. Most flood-affected areas were some of the southeastern and western districts of Kenya (in particular around Lake Victoria and along the Tana River), the Shabelle Valley in Somalia, eastern and southern Ethiopia and some western districts of Uganda. On the positive side, seasonal floods in Somalia favoured recession plantings that started in May as flood waters receded. This off-season cereal crop production, to be harvested by end-September, is expected to be near average. The 2013 main season is more advanced in the southern/ central unimodal rainfall areas of Tanzania (msimu crops) and in bi-modal rainfall areas of Uganda. In both countries, harvesting is already underway and production prospects are generally favourable, with the exception of some central marginal areas in Dodoma and Singida regions in the United Republic of Tanzania where a prolonged dry spell in February and an early cessation of rains in March have affected crops. In Rwanda and Burundi, the harvesting of the 2013 season B cereal crops, representing about 50percent of annual production, is underway and crop prospects are average. In Ethiopia, the harvesting of secondary season belg crops, which normally starts in June, has been delayed following the late start of the rainy season leading to mixed prospects for the harvest. In the eastern Amhara, southern Tigray and eastern Oromia regions, crop production is expected to be well below average as belg rains (mid-February to May) started late by almost one month and were erratic, below average and ceased earlier than normal, leading to a significant reduction in the planted area and affecting yields. By contrast, despite a delayed onset of the rainy season, better crop conditions are reported in central Oromia region and in western SNNPR as average to above average cumulative rains were received in April and early May. Localized losses of belg crops were caused by flooding in April in East and West Hararghe zones of Oromia region and in Wolayta and Sidama zones of SNNPR. The delay in belg harvest increases the risk of losses due to excessive soil moisture following the start of the June-September kiremt rains and it is likely to affect the planting operations of the 2013 meher short-cycle crops, such as wheat, barley and teff in June/July. In 2012, the subregions aggregate cereal production (including the recently harvested second season crops in Kenya, the United Republic of Tanzania, Uganda and a forecast for the belg crop in Ethiopia) is estimated at a record high of 42.3million tonnes, about 16percent above the average of the previous five years.
Coarse grains prices increase seasonally in most countries

Prices of coarse grains have been increasing in most countries of the subregion since early 2013 as the lean season progressed and supplies from previous harvests began to draw down. In the United Republic of Tanzania and Uganda, however, prices started to decline in recent months with the green crop availability from the 2013 first season harvests. In Ethiopia, wholesale prices of main cereals increased seasonally from March to June by 11-21percent in most markets. In the capital, Addis Ababa, prices of maize, red sorghum and teff in June were higher than one year ago by 11, 15 and 18percent, respectively, while prices of wheat were almost at the same level. In Kenya, wholesale prices of maize increased slightly in most markets of the Rift Valley as supplies from the recently harvested short-rains crops were gradually dwindling, while prices remained mostly stable in the capital Nairobi, partly due to the release of about 40000 tonnes of maize from public stocks. Similarly, in South Sudan, retail prices of main staple sorghum increased in Juba and Aweil markets from January to May by about 12percent, respectively, while they declined in Malakal by 10percent over the same period due to informal imports from neighbouring Sudan during March and April. In Somalia, prices of locally grown maize and sorghum increased slightly in May in the capital city Mogadishu and other markets, but are still about 15-25 percent below their levels of 12 months earlier and 6080percent below the peak reached in June 2011 when famine was declared. Similarly, sorghum prices in Baidoa market, located in the sorghum belt, were 36 percent lower than 12 months
Figure 5. Maize prices in selected Eastern African markets

USD/tonne 600 Ethiopia Kenya
Nairobi Dar-es-Salaam Addis Ababa
Tanzania U.R. Uganda

Kampala
500
400
300
200
100
Sources: Regional Agricultural Trade Intelligence Network; Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise.
No. 2 n July 2013
15
earlier and 86percent below the peak of June 2011. In Rwanda, wholesale prices of maize and beans increased, reaching record levels mid-June, and then started to decline as the harvest of the 2013 season B crops increased supplies in local markets. Despite the recent declines, prices are still well above the level of 12 months earlier, mainly due to early depletion of stock from the below average season A harvest gathered in February. In the Sudan, prices of domestic cereals (mainly sorghum and millet) remain at high levels since January 2013 in most monitored markets, just 10-20 percent below the record high levels of 12 months earlier when production was halved by a severe drought. Current high levels result mainly from increased production costs, such as labour and fertilizers, soaring inflation rates and increased informal exports to neighbouring countries (especially to South Sudan). Prices of wheat, consumed mainly in urban areas and mostly sourced from the international market, are at record high levels. The surge in prices started in mid-2012 mainly due to high inflation, limited foreign currency reserves and the devaluation of the Sudanese pound. In the United Republic of Tanzania, cereal prices reached record levels in the first quarter of 2013 and subsequently declined from April to June in most markets by between 26and 46 percent with the start of the 2013 msimu season harvest. However, current prices are still considerably higher than one year ago, mainly due to the sustained demand from neighbouring countries (Rwanda, Burundi, DRC and South Sudan) and the poor performance of the last vuli crop, harvested in January-February in bi-modal coastal areas. Similarly, in Uganda, prices of maize have declined between April and June in Kampala and Lira by 17and 15percent, respectively, as the supplies from the newly harvested crops began to enter markets. Currently, prices are well below the level of one year ago.
insecurity and massive displacements are hampering agricultural activities, market access and delivery of humanitarian assistance in conflict-affected areas of North and South Darfur, South Kordofan and Blue Nile States as well as the Abyei area. In South Sudan, food security conditions are difficult in parts of Jonglei, Unity, Lakes and Warrap states due to intensive inter-communal clashes (mostly related to cattle raiding), persistent civil insecurity and an early start of current lean season due to poor floodaffected production in 2012. In particular, recent reports indicate that about 120000 people have fled fighting in main towns of Pibor county in Jonglei state. Given that they were displaced in the malaria-infested, flood-prone areas, urgent humanitarian food and non-food assistance is required to prevent imminent loss of lives. Renewed tensions between the Sudan and South Sudan are expected to negatively affect food security of both countries through loss of oil revenues, disruption of cross border trade and increasing civil insecurity along the border. In most belg season cropping areas of Ethiopia, the current lean season is expected to be long and harsh, particularly in the Amhara and Tigray regions where the harvest is expected to be delayed and lower than average. The sweet potatoes growing areas of SNNPR are also of concern following the poor output of the recent harvest. Other pockets of food insecurity with a crisis level (IPC phase 3) are reported in livestock dependant coastal areas of central and northwestern Somalia, in the eastern lowland areas of Oromia region and agro-pastoral areas of the southern Somali region in Ethiopia, in the southeastern and north-eastern areas of Djibouti and in some central/eastern zones of Burundi. As of mid-April 2013, there were about 1.9million refugees in the subregion (half of them are concentrated in camps in Kenya and Ethiopia) whose access to basic necessities of food, shelter, water and sanitation is often precarious. In most countries of the subregion, access to food for most vulnerable households is likely to worsen in the coming weeks as food prices are expected to keep rising. Some improvements in the overall food security situation are expected to take place from July/August onwards in Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and the United Republic of Tanzania where the current lean season ends and newly harvested crops become available for consumption. On the other hand, food security is expected to deteriorate until October in meher-dependant areas of Ethiopia, Sudan and South Sudan as the food stocks from previous harvests dwindle and the lean season peaks before next harvest starts.
High food insecurity persists in conflict-affected areas

Household food security has gradually improved in most countries of the subregion, since late last year, mainly due to favourable local crop harvests and improved pasture from two consecutive good rainy seasons. In addition, a sustained humanitarian response has also played a major part. Further significant improvements are seen in Somalia and Kenya following, respectively, good deyr and short rains season harvests. Currently, in the subregion, the number of people in need of humanitarian assistance is estimated at about 9million (including 4.25million in the Sudan, 2.4million in Ethiopia, 1.2million in South Sudan, 1.05million in Somalia and 70 000 in Djibouti), about 2 million less than the previous estimate in March 2013 and about 5million less than one year ago. However, despite recent improvements, high levels of food insecurity remain in several areas of the subregion. In the Sudan,
Southern Africa
Mixed crop production performance in the subregion
Harvesting of the 2013 cereal crops is nearing completion. Weather conditions during the 2012/13 cropping season (October/June) have been mixed and production levels largely
16
No. 2 n July 2013
reflect precipitation variations. As a result of the uneven rainfall performance, the aggregate 2013 maize production in the subregion is forecast at 22.8million tonnes, slightly lower than the previous years good harvest. Production declines are expected in South Africa (-6percent) and Zambia (-11percent), due to water stress that affected yields, while a reduced area harvested in Zambia also contributed to the smaller output, estimated at 2.6 million tonnes. In Namibia, drought conditions, except in the northeastern region, resulted in a severe reduction in cereal production, both compared to last year and the average, prompting the Government to declare a national emergency in May. Similarly, water deficits are expected to limit production in southern Angola, but a recovery over last seasons poor output is anticipated in the large cereal producing central provinces. In addition, pasture and livestock conditions worsened in western areas as a result of the prolonged dry conditions; approximately 4000 livestock deaths were recorded in Namibia this year. In Madagascar, rice production is expected to decline, particularly in the southwestern regions, on account of the locust plague. A joint FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) is currently being conducted in the country and is expected to provide more detailed information on losses and production levels in 2013. In Malawi, production is expected to improve moderately over the 2012s output to 3.7million tonnes, particularly in the southern regions which experienced production shortfalls in the previous season. Lesotho and Mozambique are expected to make production gains in 2013, but localized crop losses, due to pests and floods, will result in tighter supplies in some areas. In southern Mozambique, for example, flooding in early 2013 resulted in the complete loss of approximately 211 000 hectares of crop (4percent of the national cropped area). Official estimates for Zimbabwe are not yet available, however, maize production is expected to increase from last years near average crop. Although Botswana observed generally drier conditions, the main eastern and southern growing regions experienced
relatively good weather, and early estimates point to an increase in cereal production.
Import requirements in 2013/14 expected to rise slightly

The aggregate maize supply in the 2013/14 marketing year (generally May/April) is more than sufficient to cover the subregions import requirement estimated at about 1.2 million tonnes. However, the expected lower surplus in Zambia, the second largest exporter in the subregion, will limit import opportunities, particularly for Zimbabwe, which restricts the importations of GM maize produced in South Africa, the largest exporter in the subregion. It is therefore likely that Zimbabwe will also source maize supplies from outside the subregion. Maize import requirements for most countries are expected to remain similar to the previous year, except Namibia and Zimbabwe. For wheat, the subregion is a net-importer owing to generally stagnant domestic production, however, Zambia, which recorded production gains during the previous five years is now selfsufficient. The subregions aggregate import requirement for wheat in 2013/14 is estimated at 3.5million tonnes, up slightly from last year.
Maize prices declined seasonably as the ongoing harvest augments market supplies
In South Africa, maize prices (in Rand terms) have generally declined since the start of 2013, but remained at slightly higher levels than last year. In March, prices increased in response to the downward revision of the 2013 maize production forecast but after a brief fall in April, rose marginally in the following two months, supported by a weaker Rand and higher international prices. In neighbouring Lesotho, maize prices have remained comparatively stable over the last months but are still higher than the preceding year, reflecting higher export quotations in South Africa, the countrys main supplier.
Table 11. Southern Africa cereal production

2011 2012 estim. 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.3 0.0 2013 f'cast 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.3 0.0
Coarse grains
2011 25.0 13.5 0.4 4.0 2.6 11.5 3.1 1.6 2012 estim. 24.6 11.3 0.4 3.7 2.0 13.3 2.9 1.1 2013 f'cast 24.3 11.8 0.4 3.8 2.4 12.6 2.6 1.3
Rice (paddy)
2011 4.8 4.8 4.3 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2012 estim. 5.1 5.1 4.6 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2013 f'cast 4.9 4.9 4.4 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2011 32.1 18.6 4.7 4.1 2.9 13.5 3.4 1.7
Total cereals
2012 estim. 31.9 16.7 5.0 3.8 2.4 15.1 3.2 1.1 2013 f'cast 31.3 17.0 4.8 3.9 2.7 14.3 2.9 1.3 Change: 2013/2012 (%) -2.0 1.4 -3.4 1.9 13.8 -5.7 -9.0 12.5
Southern Africa - excl. South Africa Madagascar Malawi Mozambique South Africa Zambia Zimbabwe
2.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.2 0.0
No. 2 n July 2013
17
In Mozambique, maize prices declined significantly since the start of the main harvest in March, on the back of an expected increase in cereal output and improved grain flows to markets. However, prices in June remained generally above those of last year, except in some central markets where they were similar to the levels of a year earlier. Similarly, in Malawi prices decreased in the past months, as the new crop improved market supplies. However, prices still remained significantly above those of a year earlier. In addition, the national inflation rate declined for the third consecutive month in May, mainly reflecting an overall decrease in food prices. While in May, buoyed by an improved inflow of foreign currency from sales of the 2013 tobacco crop, the national currency (kwacha) appreciated against the US dollar. The strengthening of the kwacha is expected to contribute to containing import inflation. In Zambia, maize grain prices decreased in June, as the 2013 harvest increased market supplies. However, prices of breakfast maize meal remained virtually unchanged, after increasing in previous months following the Governments intervention to raise the ceiling price to ZMW 55 per 25 kg (up ZMW 5). The increase was implemented to improve internal trade to remote areas, which was previously impeded by high transportation costs and comparatively low retail prices. Maize prices are expected to come under renewed upward pressure following the removal of the Food Reserve Agencys (FRA) subsidized sale price to millers in May. In addition, the Government has also removed a fuel subsidy and approved an increase in petrol and diesel prices, to lower the burden on fiscal resources and allow funds to be directed towards public capital investment.
Average rice prices in Madagascar declined seasonably between January and June, but at a slower rate than previous years. Expectations of a reduced rice crop, due to cyclone damage and the impact of the locust plague, contributed to the subdued price fall this year.
Overall food security conditions are improving, but remain a concern for some parts in the subregion
Food security conditions in most parts of the subregion are improving, as the ongoing 2013 harvest increased households food availability. However, in Namibia, an inter-agency emergency food security assessment, conducted in April, found that an estimated 330 927 persons, more than four times the level of the previous year, require emergency food assistance due to the impact of the drought. In response, the Government has initiated several short and long-term interventions, including emergency food aid distributions. Although the country has the capacity to import sufficient quantities of cereals, households access to market supplies is expected to be constrained due to reduced livestock prices and limited local harvest. Similarly in southern Angola, a consecutive season of below average rains has severely reduced crop production and food security conditions are anticipated to deteriorate as a result. Elsewhere in the subregion, food security conditions are expected to worsen later in the year in areas where crop production shortfalls are estimated, particularly in parts of the Limpopo river basin of Mozambique, some southern areas of Zambia and Zimbabwe and localized parts of central Malawi. The high maize prices in Malawi are also continuing to constrain food access. Additionally, the food security situation is expected to deteriorate in Madagascar, due to damage caused by the locust plague and cyclones. The release of the national vulnerability assessments from July
Figure 6. White maize prices in selected Southern African markets

USD/kg Zambia
(national average)
onwards will provide more detailed information on the current food security situation and required interventions.
Mozambique
Gorongosa
0.4
Randfontein
South Africa*
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
J J A S O N D J F MAM J J A S O N D J F MAM J
2011 2012 2013
*Wholesale prices, all others retail prices.
Sources: Central Statistical Ofce, Zambia; Sistema De Informao De Mercados Agrcolas De Moambique, Mozambique; SAFEX Agricultural Products Division, South Africa.
18
No. 2 n July 2013
Asia
Far East
2013 winter wheat harvest expected to show slight improvement over 2012 record level
Harvesting of winter crops, mainly wheat and barley, and the first season rice crop, is almost complete throughout the subregion, while land preparation or planting of the main season rice and coarse grains, to be harvested from September 2013, is well advanced. FAOs latest estimate of the subregions aggregate 2013 wheat harvest, including the forecast for small amounts of spring wheat, stands at a new record level of 245million tonnes, up on last years another record crop which itself was 4.4 percent on the 2011 output. In general, the subregion experienced erratic performance of rains during the growing period from November 2012 to April 2013. However, given that most of the crops this season are irrigated, the dry weather had a limited impact on crop development. Record winter wheat harvests are officially estimated for China and Pakistan at 115.3 and 26.3 million tonnes, respectively, mainly reflecting generally favourable weather conditions, good availability of irrigation water, fertilizers and other inputs. However, in China, belowaverage rainfall from mid-February to mid-May over large parts of the North China Plain, particularly affecting Hebei, Henan and Shandong provinces, led to a downward revision of winter wheat from the previous official forecast set at 116.6 million tonnes. Latest estimates from the National Grain and Oils Information Centre point to total wheat crop (including winter and ongoing spring seasons) of about 120.6 million tonnes, similar to last years record harvest. Similarly, in India, good rainfall in the latter part of the growing season in major producing states such as Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana in the northwest, coupled with good supplies of fertilizer and irrigation water in most producing areas, led to an upward revision from the second official forecast, to a near record level. The Third Advance Estimate from Indias
Note: Comments refer to situation as of July. India: maize (rabi): harvesting rice (kharif): planting to vegetative Southeastern Asia: rice (main): vegetative maize: vegetative to harvesting Near East: grains: harvesting South Asia: rice (main): planting coarse grains: planting Asia (CIS): small grains: harvesting maize: reproductive China: wheat (winter), maize (south): harvesting wheat (spring), maize (north): vegetative to reproductive early rice: harvesting intermediate: vegetative late rice: planting
Table 12. Far East cereal production

2011 2012 estim. 244.0 1.0 0.0 120.6 94.9 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.2 1.9 24.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2013 f'cast 245.2 1.1 0.0 120.6 93.6 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.2 1.9 26.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Coarse grains
2011 293.1 1.7 0.7 201.4 42.5 17.6 0.2 0.2 1.5 2.5 4.1 7.0 5.2 4.8 2012 estim. 311.2 2.1 1.0 217.0 42.2 19.0 0.2 0.2 1.7 2.3 4.1 7.4 5.1 4.8 2013 f'cast 313.4 2.1 1.0 222.9 38.8 18.3 0.2 0.2 1.9 2.4 4.1 7.3 5.2 5.1
Rice (paddy)
2011 655.1 50.8 8.8 202.7 158.0 65.8 10.5 5.6 29.0 5.1 9.2 17.0 38.1 42.3 2012 estim. 662.2 50.6 9.3 205.9 156.3 69.0 10.7 5.4 31.5 4.5 8.0 18.0 36.9 43.7 2013 f'cast 675.0 51.2 9.1 208.4 159.0 72.1 10.6 5.7 32.5 4.6 9.3 18.9 37.5 43.5 2011 1 182.0 53.6 9.5 521.5 287.3 83.4 11.4 5.9 30.7 9.3 38.6 24.0 43.3 47.2
Total cereals
2012 estim. 1 217.5 53.7 10.2 543.5 293.4 88.0 11.7 5.6 33.4 8.7 36.2 25.4 42.0 48.5 2013 f'cast 1 233.6 54.4 10.1 551.9 291.4 90.4 11.6 5.9 34.6 8.9 39.7 26.2 42.6 48.6 Change: 2013/2012 (%) 1.3 1.2 -1.7 1.5 -0.7 2.7 -0.8 5.3 3.8 1.8 9.7 3.0 1.5 0.3
Far East Bangladesh Cambodia China India Indonesia Japan

Korea Rep. of
Myanmar Nepal Pakistan Philippines Thailand Viet Nam
233.7 1.0 0.0 117.4 86.9 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.2 1.8 25.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
No. 2 n July 2013
19
Ministry of Agriculture reports the winter wheat Rabi production at 93.6million tonnes, slightly below the 2012 record harvest but still the second best crop on record. In Bangladesh, Myanmar and Nepal, favourable weather conditions boosted wheat production to record levels. On the other hand, in Japan, given the estimated contraction in wheat plantings, on account of an expansion of rice plantings and erratic rainfall conditions recently, total wheat production in 2013 is tentatively estimated to drop by 4 percent from the 2012 above-average harvest.
2percent above the 2012 record harvest. However, given the bulk of the 2013 paddy and coarse grains crops are currently being planted, the situation could change as the season progresses.
Cereal imports and exports expected to increase in 2013/14 marketing year

Despite the overall anticipated increase in cereal production in most countries of the subregion, the aggregate cereal imports in the 2013/14 marketing years are expected to increase by some 6percent compared to 2012/13 and remain 11percent above the preceding five-year average level. The increase is mainly attributed to the higher forecast of maize imports from China, almost double from the previous year, following growing demand for feed use. Similarly, total wheat imports of the subregion are expected to increase by 1.1million tonnes or 3percent above last years level, following higher demand for the crop in China, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand. The aggregate rice imports, on the other hand, are expected to decline reflecting lower demand for the imported commodity in Indonesia, China, and the Republic of Korea due to the improved domestic production. Aggregate cereal exports in 2013/14 are preliminarily forecast to increase by almost 7percent from the previous year, following the estimated increase in exportable surplus, particularly from Thailand (by 20percent) and India (by 6percent). Wheat exports are anticipated to reach an all-time high of 9 million tonnes, primarily because of an almost 50 percent increase in India to 7.5million tonnes, given the estimated bumper harvest and large carryover stocks. With regards to rice, the subregions largest exported cereal, exports for 2013 are anticipated to remain similar to the 2012 level. Lower estimated rice exports by India and Viet Nam compared to last year, are expected to be more than compensated by an increase in exports from Thailand, estimated at 8.2million tonnes, an improvement of 17percent relative to the poor 2012 performance.
Improved rice harvest for the 2013 first season anticipated in most countries
Harvesting of the early planted 2012/13 secondary rice (dry season) in most countries of the subregion and the main rice crop in the southern countries of the continent, namely Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Timor-Leste and Viet Nam, are almost complete. The outlook for the harvest is favourable in most countries due to generally beneficial weather, adequate supplies of fertilizer and irrigation water. Record first season harvests are estimated in Bangladesh and the Philippines, mainly reflecting an estimated expansion in plantings. Similarly, in Indonesia the output of the main wet season paddy crop is estimated at 68.4million tonnes, some 4.4 percent above the previous years record harvest of the same season, following diverse initiatives launched by the Government to achieve self-sufficiency. By contrast, in Viet Nam erratic rains and hot weather between mid-January and March, particularly over the main rice growing areas of the Mekong River Delta in the south and the Red River Delta in the north, combined with an outbreak of pests and diseases in March and April, are estimated to reduce the main season (winter/spring) paddy crop to 19.9million tonnes, compared to the 20.3million tonnes in 2012. Paddy production in Sri Lanka is estimated to remain unchanged.
2013 aggregate regional cereal harvest preliminarily forecast at a record level

Based on production estimates of the winter crops already harvested in most countries as well as assuming a relatively normal ongoing monsoon season, FAO preliminarily forecasts the 2013 aggregate cereal production for the Far East subregion at about 1234million tonnes (rice in paddy terms), some 1.3 percent higher than the previous years record output. Gains are expected in paddy production, tentatively estimated to reach a record level of 675million tonnes, some
Table 13. Far East cereal production and anticipated trade in 2013/14 1
(thousand tonnes)
Avg 5-yrs (2008/09 to 2012/13) Cereals - Exports Cereals - Imports Cereals - Production Rice-millled - Exports Rice-millled - Imports Rice-millled - Production Wheat - Exports Wheat - Imports Wheat - Production
1
2013/14 over 2013/14 over 2012/13 5-yr avg 2012/13 40 524 89 958 997 056 29 364 10 008 441 795 6 360 34 894 244 030 2013/14 43 242 95 619 1 008 853 29 564 9 740 450 195 9 030 36 042 245 240
(%) (%)
34 915 86 161 932 205 26 926 9 534 424 885 3 100 33 654 228 011
6.7 6.3 1.2 0.7 -2.7 1.9 42.0 3.3 0.5
23.8 11.0 8.2 9.8 2.2 6.0 191.3 7.1 7.6
Marketing year July/June for most countries. Rice trade figures are for the second year shown.
20
No. 2 n July 2013
Figure 7. Rice retail prices in selected Far East countries

USD/kg Indonesia,(medium quality)
Figure 8. Wheat and wheat our retail prices in selected Far East countries
USD/kg
0.7
China (wheat our)
0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2
national average
Average of main 50 cities
0.6
Philippines, (RMR)
national average
0.5
Bangladesh (wheat our)
Dhaka
India
Delhi
0.4
India (wheat)
Delhi
Viet Nam, (25% broken milled)

Dong Thap
0.3
Pakistan (wheat)
Lahore
0.2
Sources: Ministry of Trade, Indonesia; Ministry of Consumer Affairs, India; Bureau of Agriculture Statistics, Philippines; Agroinfo, Viet Nam.
Sources: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics; Ministry of Consumer Affairs, India; Management Information System and Monitoring, Bangladesh; National Bureau of Statistics of China.
The total cereal trade flows (sum of imports and exports) from the countries in the subregion is expected to increase by about 6 percent during the 2013/14 marketing season.
Retail prices of wheat and wheat flour, although declined slightly in April-May 2013, continue to rise and remain above their levels a year ago in most countries including Bangladesh, China, India, Pakistan (to a record level in some markets) and Sri Lanka. The prices were supported by strong regional demand and government procurement programs. For example, in China, the Government recently raised the market support price for wheat to CNY2240 (USD365) per tonne, 10 percent above the previous year.
Prices of rice showed mixed trends while those of wheat generally increased
Overall, retail rice prices in local currencies showed mixed trends in recent months. They remained generally stable in China, Indonesia, the Philippines and Sri Lanka and softened in other countries. The easing of the prices was mainly due to the good harvests of the 2013 early season crop and decline in export prices from the main exporters in the region, mainly Thailand and Viet Nam. By contrast, domestic rice prices firmed-up in Bangladesh, India and Myanmar (reaching a record level) due to the large government procurement programmes and/or high exports.
Near East
Wheat crop output is forecast to increase in the subregion in 2013
Harvesting of 2013 winter wheat and barley crops is currently underway throughout the subregion. Early forecast for the 2013 wheat crop in the subregion is put at 47.4million tonnes, about 5percent above last years average output.
Table 14. Near East cereal production

2011 2012 estim. 45.1 5.0 13.8 2.1 2.8 20.1 2013 f'cast 47.4 4.9 14.5 2.5 2.4 22.0
Coarse grains
2011 21.1 0.6 4.7 1.4 0.8 12.5 2012 estim. 21.2 0.7 4.9 1.1 1.0 12.4 2013 f'cast 22.4 0.7 5.0 1.1 1.0 13.6
Rice (paddy)
2011 4.1 0.7 2.3 0.2 0.0 0.9 2012 estim. 4.2 0.7 2.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 2013 f'cast 4.4 0.7 2.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 2011 71.6 4.6 20.5 4.0 4.7 35.2
Total cereals
2012 estim. 70.5 6.4 21.1 3.4 3.8 33.4 2013 f'cast 74.1 6.3 22.0 3.8 3.4 36.4 Change: 2013/2012 (%) 5.1 -1.8 4.0 11.8 -10.5 9.1
Near East
Afghanistan Iran (Islamic Rep. of ) Iraq Syrian Arab Republic Turkey
46.4 3.3 13.5 2.4 3.9 21.8
No. 2 n July 2013
21
In Turkey, reports indicate that the use of certified seeds has increased in response to the Turkish Grain Boards new proteinbased procurement policy. Accordingly, first estimates from the Turkish Statistical Institute indicate a 9percent increase in cereal production in 2013, compared to last year, to about 36.4million tonnes. The forecast includes 21.95 million tonnes of wheat (9percent increase on last year) and 13.6million tonnes of coarse grains (9percent increase). In the Islamic Republic of Iran, the second biggest wheat producer in the region after Turkey, the 2013 production is anticipated to remain unchanged from last years level of 14million tonnes. By contrast, an above average wheat production is expected in Iraq following heavy rains in early May in the south of the country. In Afghanistan, winter grain harvest is almost completed. Although still an above average crop, a slight decrease of 2 percent in total production of cereals compared to last years bumper is expected. In the Syrian Arab Republic, despite favourable rainfall this season, the 2013 wheat production is estimated at 2.4 million tonnes, significantly lower than the average for the ten years prior to 2010/11 (the pre-crisis period) that exceeded 4 million tonnes (a drop of 40 percent) and is approximately 15 percent lower than the below average that of 2011/12 crop. The barley crop, which is predominantly rainfed, is expected to be close to one million tonnes and compares favourably with an average annual production of 773 000 tonnes for the ten years prior to 2010/11. Barley yield, however, remains low at less than 800 kg/ha. A FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) report was recently released.
reached more than 1 416 000 registered in May 2013, mostly residing in Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq. It is estimated that about 4million Syrians are in need of food and livelihoods assistance. Although WFP continues to provide food assistance to vulnerable Syrian populations in Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq, and Turkey, resources in host communities remain under strain. The WFP assistance in neighbouring countries is scaled up to reach 1225000 beneficiaries by December 2013, up from 795000 in June 2013.
CIS in Asia2
Favourable Prospects for the 2013 cereal harvests
Planting of the 2013 spring cereals has been completed in most countries of the subregion. Weather conditions including precipitation were generally favourable for crop growth. The aggregate cereal production in 2013, including the estimated winter cereal harvest to be completed in next months, is forecast to increase to about 32.4million tonnes, which is slightly above the five-year average and some 19percent higher than last years reduced level. In Kazakhstan, the main cereal producer of the subregion, 2013 cereal production is forecast at about 39 percent higher than last years drought reduced level but close to the five-year average. The planted area under wheat slightly decreased by about 357000 hectares (by 2.7percent) as a result of government crop diversification policy aimed at abolishing wheat subsidies. During the spring sowing season frequent rains somewhat hindered sowing in the region of North Kazakhstan, the main area specialized on wheat production. However, sowing of cereals was fully completed in most other regions under general favourable conditions. Assuming normal weather during the remainder of the cropping season, wheat production is forecast at 14 million tonnes or recovered by over 43 percent from last years drought-reduced level but still below the record level of 2011/12 marketing year (July/June). This is estimated to lead to a slight increase in the countrys export potential. Early forecasts in other countries of the subregion, namely, Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan point to a normal cereal production of some 436 000, 515 000 and 2 775 000 tonnes, more-or-less similar to the levels in past few years. In Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan satisfactory weather conditions allowed the completion of cereal sowing, mainly wheat, with adequate soil moisture with the planted area and forecast production at the levels of last year. In Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan normal planting conditions, adequate precipitation and soil moisture contributed to satisfactory crop conditions with a slight increase in the planted
2
Yemen and the Syrian Arab Republic continue to face humanitarian crises
In Yemen, despite the improved political situation following recent elections, the food security situation remains highly critical. According to a Comprehensive Food Security Survey by WFP released in June 2012, over 5 million people (22 percent of the population) are severely food insecure and in need of emergency food assistance, and additional 5million people are moderately food insecure and at risk of deterioration in the face of continuing shocks. Child malnutrition rates are among the highest in the world with close to half of Yemens children under five years (2million children) stunted. To tackle the food insecurity situation, an Emergency Operation (EMOP) was initiated by WFP in January 2013 to provide emergency food and nutrition support to 5 million food-insecure and conflict-affected people through food assistance and cash transfers between January and December 2013. By mid-May, the operation has received about 49percent of its required funding of USD242million. In the Syrian Arab Republic, the continued civil conflict which began in March 2011 has caused a significant deterioration in food security conditions, particularly for vulnerable groups. According to UNHCR data, the total number of Syrian refugees
Georgia is no longer a member of CIS but its inclusion in this group is maintained for the time being.
22
No. 2 n July 2013
Table 15. CIS in Asia cereal production

(million tonnes)
tendencies Total cereals 1

2011 40.8 0.4 2.4 0.5 26.5 1.6 1.0 1.5 6.9 2012 2013 estim. f'cast 27.3 0.4 2.8 0.5 12.5 1.3 1.1 1.4 7.3 32.4 0.4 2.8 0.5 17.3 1.5 1.1 1.4 7.3
Change: 2013/2012 (%)
in
most
markets.
Prices of bread showed signs of Wheat

2011 2012 2013 estim. f'cast 21.4 0.2 2.0 0.1 9.8 0.6 0.8 1.2 6.7 25.9 0.3 2.0 0.1 14.1 0.7 0.8 1.2 6.7
Coarse grains
2011 6.2 0.2 0.8 0.4 3.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.4 2012 2013 estim. f'cast 5.1 0.2 0.8 0.4 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.4 5.7 0.2 0.8 0.4 2.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.4
weakening in May, after staying at near record levels since late 2012. In Tajikistan, prices of wheat flour in April declined following increased imports from Kazakhstan, the countrys main supplier. In Georgia, average prices of wheat flour in May stabilized around their levels of the past month and above their levels a
CIS in Asia Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan
33.9 0.2 1.6 0.1 22.7 0.9 0.7 1.3 6.3
18.7 0.0 -0.4 0.6 39.2 13.6 3.2 1.4 -0.1
year earlier. The relatively high level of flour prices reflects the countrys import dependency and strong export quotations in the area. Assuming the continuation of favourable weather conditions in Kyrgyzstan, a 14 percent recovery of cereal production is expected compared to last year. The aggregate cereal production in this country is forecast at some 1.5million tonnes, 50percent of which is wheat. Some cereal production increase is foreseen in Tajikistan. In both countries cereal production is estimated similar to the five-year average. Import requirements, although lower in 2012/13 marketing year (July/June) compared to the year before, generally remained high across the subregion. Wheat import requirements are put at some 5.5 million tonnes or down by 24 percent compared to the previous marketing year. The decrease reflects improved crop conditions for both winter and spring crops. However, in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan wheat import dependency (estimated as imports over total domestic utilization) is very high, ranging from 23 to 89 percent in these countries. The export potential of neighbouring countries in the region, mainly Kazakhstan, is seen as sufficient to cover estimated wheat import needs in the region.
USD/kg 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 J J A S O N D J F MAM J J A S O N D J F MAM J 2011 2012 2013 Armenia (national average) Azerbaijan (national average) Georgia (national average) Kyrgyzstan (national average) Tajikistan (national average)
region. In Azerbaijan, prices of wheat flour and bread increased slightly in April and were higher than a year earlier. In Armenia, which imports about half of its consumption requirements, prices of wheat flour remained unchanged since April but are well above their levels a year earlier due to high regional export quotations in the second half of 2012 which in turn pushed up domestic prices.
Figure 9. Retail wheat our prices in selected CIS in Asia countries
Prices of wheat and wheat products generally decreased in May but remain high
In most countries of the subregion, prices of wheat flour declined in May mainly reflecting favourable production prospects for the 2013 wheat crop to be harvested in the coming months. However, prices of wheat flour in May remained generally higher than their levels a year earlier in both exporting and importing countries, particularly in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, although lower than their peaks earlier this year. In Kyrgyzstan, although prices of wheat flour decreased during last three months, they remained well above last years
Sources: National Statistical Service of Republic of Armenia; National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic; State Committee on Statistics, Republic of Tajikistan; State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan; National Statistics Ofce of Georgia.
No. 2 n July 2013
23
Latin America and the Caribbean

Early prospects for the 2013 cereal production generally favourable
Sowing of the main 2013 cereal season is complete. Assuming generally favourable weather conditions during the growing season, early forecasts point to an aggregate output of 42million tonnes, 3percent above the good level of last year. In Mexico, the planting of the 2013 main spring-summer maize crop season is underway. Early official forecasts point to an increase of 5percent in the area planted from last years same season, driven by high prices and government support programmes. The harvest of the 2012/13 autumn-winter maize crop season, which represents about 30percent of the aggregate annual production, is ongoing and will be completed in August. Official forecasts indicate an output of about 4.8million tonnes, more than 10 percent below the same season in 2012. This mainly reflects a contraction in yields due to frosts in mid-January in the main growing areas, in particular in Sinaloa. Assuming normal weather conditions in the coming months, the 2013 aggregate maize production (autumn-winter and spring-summer seasons) is tentatively forecast at 22.4 million tonnes, slightly above the 2012 level and higher than the previous five-year average. The harvesting of the 2013 irrigated autumn-winter wheat crop, which accounts for 90 percent of annual production, is almost concluded. Production is anticipated at 3.8 million tonnes or 16percent higher than the reduced level in 2012. The increase reflects a recovery in the planted area and favourable weather conditions during the season in the main northern growing areas. Elsewhere in the subregion, the sowing of the 2013 main de primera season is about to be completed. Early prospects are favourable reflecting normal plantings and expected productivity growth in response to government agricultural support programmes. In the Caribbean, in Haiti, below average precipitation in the second half of March and most of April hampered sowing
Mexico coarse grains (summer crop): planting paddy crop (summer crop): planting Central America maize (main season): planting
Brazil maize (secondary season): harvesting (centre-southern states) wheat (winter): planting
Uruguay wheat (winter), barley: planting Argentina wheat (winter): planting
Note: Comments refer to situation as of July. .
of the 2013 main spring cereal season, particularly in key growing areas of the departments of Centre and Artibonite. Assuming normal precipitation in the remainder of the season, production is expected to recover from last years poor harvest. In the Dominican Republic, sowing of the 2013 main seasons rice crop benefited from favourable weather. The area planted is estimated at an average level.
Maize prices on the rise in most countries except in Mexico

In most countries of the subregion, maize prices increased in June as the lean season progresses until August. In Haiti, Nicaragua and Honduras, prices have remained consistently above their levels a year earlier throughout the marketing year (August/
Table 16. Latin America and Caribbean cereal production

2011 Central America & Caribbean El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Mexico Nicaragua South America Argentina Brazil 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6 0.0 25.1 14.5 5.7 2012 2013 estim. f'cast 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 0.0 17.7 9.0 4.4 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 0.0 22.7 12.5 5.5
Coarse grains
2011 29.6 0.9 1.7 0.6 24.7 0.7 106.6 32.8 59.0 2012 2013 estim. f'cast 34.8 1.1 1.7 0.6 30.0 0.5 122.1 31.2 74.1 35.3 1.1 1.7 0.6 30.3 0.6 134.5 35.6 81.9
Rice (paddy)
2011 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 26.4 1.7 13.6 2012 2013 estim. f'cast 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 24.5 1.6 11.6 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 25.0 1.6 11.9 2011 36.1 0.9 1.8 0.7 28.5 1.1 158.1 49.1 78.3
Total cereals
2012 estim. 40.9 1.1 1.8 0.7 33.4 1.0 164.2 41.7 90.1 2013 f'cast 42.1 1.1 1.8 0.7 34.3 1.0 182.1 49.7 99.3 Change: 2013/2012 (%) 3.0 1.9 0.6 10.4 2.5 6.9 10.9 19.0 10.2
24
No. 2 n July 2013
Figure 10. Wholesale white maize prices in selected countries in Central America
USD/tonne Honduras
Tegucigalpa Guatemala City
Figure 11. Wholesale wheat ower prices in selected countries in South America
USD/tonne 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 Bolivia, Santa Cruz Brazil, So Paulo Peru, national average Ecuador, Quito
750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250
Guatemala
Nicaragua
Managua
El Salvador
San Salvador
Sources: Secretaria de Agricultura y Ganaderia, Honduras; Ministerio de Agricultura, Ganadera y Alimentacin, Guatemala; Ministerio agropecuario y forestal, Nicaragua, Direccin General de Economa Agropecuaria, El Salvador.
Sources: Servicio Informativo de Mercados Agropecuarios, Bolivia; Instituto de Economa Agrcola, Brazil; Instituto Nacional de Estadstica e Informtica, Peru; Sistema de Informacin Nacional de Agricultura, Ganadera, Acuacultura y Pesca - SINAGAP, Ecuador.
July) due to the reduced 2012 maize outputs and/or increases in transport costs. By contrast, in Mexico, maize prices in June were lower than a year earlier following a continued decline in the past eight months, reflecting the strong recovery of the 2012 maize production and the ongoing 2013 secondary harvest. In June, prices of rice, a major import commodity in the subregion, remained relatively unchanged. Prices of staple red beans seasonally increased in June but remained lower than in 2012, reflecting the high stocks from last years bumper crop.
decline to about 905000 tonnes, reflecting drought conditions in major growing areas. Planting of the 2013 wheat crop is underway. Early prospects are favourable reflecting anticipated increases in the area planted and return to normal yields from last years reduced level. The aggregate output is forecast at an average level.
Cereal prices generally softening with the exception of Bolivia

Domestic prices for wheat and wheat flour in importing countries of the subregion remained relatively stable in May/June. The major exception to this trend was Bolivia, where in June, prices increased by 19 percent from the previous month and were 40 percent higher than a year earlier, as a result of low export availabilities from Argentina, the countrys main supplier. To stabilize prices the Government has recently eliminated the import tariff on wheat and wheat flour from non-Argentinian sources for six months. Reflecting the record harvest in the sub-region, particularly in Brazil and Ecuador, yellow maize prices declined in June. However in Ecuador, prices of yellow maize were higher than June 2012 supported by high demand for feed. In Bolivia, maize prices stabilized in June but, due to this years lower output, remained almost 70percent higher than at this time last year.
South America
Cereal production to reach a record level in 2013
FAOs latest forecast puts the 2013 cereal production of the subregion at 182 million tonnes, some 11 percent above last years record crop. The increase is mainly driven by an anticipated bumper maize crop in most countries of the subregion, except in Bolivia. In Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, Ecuador, Peru and Chile, where harvesting of the 2013 maize crop is underway or just completed, official estimates indicate record or near record outputs, reflecting significant increases in the area planted in response to sustained demand from the feed industry, and higher yields following the use of higher yielding seed varieties in some countries. By contrast, in Bolivia, maize production is forecast to
No. 2 n July 2013
25
North America, Europe and Oceania

Northern Europe small grains: maturing to harvesting
Canada small grains: reproductive maize: vegetative
United States small grains: reproductive to maturing (north), harvesting (south) maize: reproductive
Centre-Southern Europe small grains: maturing to harvesting maize: reproductive
CIS in Europe small grains: maturing to harvesting maize: reproductive
Australia cereals (winter): vegetative
Note: Comments refer to situation as of July.
North America
Current crop season delayed by late spring folowed by excessive moisture in many parts
In the United States, winter wheat harvesting was underway in the southern states as of late June, but progressing behind average pace because of rainfall. The rains have also hampered the tail-end of the spring wheat planting although the moisture was beneficial for crop development. The latest official forecast puts winter wheat output at about 41 million tonnes, some 8 percent down from the previous year. Despite estimation of slightly increased plantings, the harvested area is expected to decrease by about 6percent compared to 2012, largely because
of drought in parts, and yields are also expected to be affected negatively by the dry conditions. Although the spring wheat planting pace has been slower than average, the crop has benefitted from generally better growing conditions than those for the winter wheat, and latest forecast point to a spring wheat about of about 15.6million tonnes. However, this would still be some 8percent down from last years harvest. Thus, aggregate wheat output is forecast to reach some 56.6 million tonnes, 8.3percent down from the 2012 output. Regarding coarse grains, planting of the 2013 maize crop was virtually complete by mid-June. Although early indications of farmers planting intentions pointed to a significant expansion
Table 17. North America, Europe and Oceania cereal production

2011 North America Canada United States Europe Belarus EU Russian Federation Serbia Ukraine Oceania Australia 79.7 25.3 54.4 223.6 2.1 137.6 56.2 2.1 22.3 30.2 29.9 2012 estim. 89.0 27.2 61.8 191.8 2.1 131.3 37.7 1.9 15.8 22.4 22.1 2013 f'cast 86.0 29.4 56.6 219.9 2.1 139.1 53.7 2.3 20.2 25.7 25.4
Coarse grains
2011 347.0 23.0 324.0 236.1 5.7 149.0 34.2 7.0 33.4 12.7 12.1 2012 estim. 310.7 24.4 286.3 221.8 6.7 141.9 30.8 6.7 29.9 11.5 11.0 2013 f'cast 383.2 26.0 357.1 245.5 6.7 159.6 35.2 7.4 32.0 11.8 11.2
Rice (paddy)
2011 8.4 0.0 8.4 4.4 0.0 3.2 1.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 2012 estim. 9.0 0.0 9.0 4.4 0.0 3.2 1.1 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.9 2013 f'cast 8.6 0.0 8.6 4.1 0.0 2.9 1.1 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.1 2011 435.1 48.2 386.9 464.1 7.7 289.8 91.5 9.0 55.9 43.6 42.7
Total cereals
2012 estim. 408.7 51.6 357.1 418.0 8.8 276.3 69.6 8.6 45.9 34.9 34.0 2013 f'cast 477.8 55.4 422.4 469.4 8.8 301.6 90.0 9.7 52.3 38.6 37.7 Change: 2013/2012 (%) 16.9 7.4 18.3 12.3 0.3 9.1 29.3 12.9 14.0 10.5 10.8
26
No. 2 n July 2013
of the area sown to maize, less than ideal conditions during the planting period limited plantings. According to official estimates at the end of June, the final area sown to maize was just slightly up from the previous years level. Regarding the condition of the crop, the USDA Crop Progress Report of 25June rated 65percent of the maize nationwide in good to excellent condition, 10 percentage points better than last years ratings during the severe drought, but also indicating that a significant proportion of this years crop is still suffering from a combination of late planting, excessively heavy rains and cool temperatures. At this stage, despite the weather difficulties encountered so far this season, still assuming a better harvest/planting ratio than last year and a recovery to average yields after last years severe and widespread drought, FAO forecasts the countrys maize output at about 340 million tonnes, which would be some 24 percent up from the 2012 reduced level. In Canada, the official crop area report released on 25June indicated that wheat planting had progressed relatively normally compared to past years, despite a slow start because of the late spring, and only some localized areas were still to be sown because of excess moisture. The total wheat area is estimated up 9.3percent from 2012, while that for maize also increased, by 2.9percent, to a record high level. With the wheat planting estimate largely in line with earlier expectations, assuming normal conditions through the growing season, the countrys 2013 wheat production forecast remains at 29.4million tonnes, some 8percent up from 2012.
CIS in Europe Production of cereals to recover in 2013

In all European CIS countries (Belarus, Republic of Moldova, the Russian Federation and Ukraine) sowing of the 2013 spring crops has been completed satisfactorily. Winter wheat crop is reported in good condition. Assuming that the weather conditions remain favourable in the remainder of the agricultural season, a recovery of the cereal production is anticipated. The 2013 aggregate cereal production of the subregion is forecast to increase to 154million tonnes, by 22percent, compared to last years drought-reduced production and some 7.6 percent above the five-year average. The wheat production at 76.7million tonnes, however, is likely to remain close to the five-year average. In the Russian Federation, winter crops are reported to be in generally good condition and the spring crop condition is considered normal despite some late sowing of spring crops in the eastern regions and relatively cold weather at the beginning of the season. In some regions, agro-climatic conditions for the spring crops are worse than the average due to lack of soil moisture. In the southern region, still to recover from last years drought, vegetation of spring crops is lower than normal. Assuming normal weather conditions during the rest of the cropping season, early forecast of the 2013 aggregate cereal production (winter and spring crops) puts a cereal harvest of 90 million tonnes, about 30 percent higher than last years drought-reduced crop. A significant increase is expected for the 2013 maize production, by 50 percent above the five-year average. Other crops (barley, rye and oats) are expected to be harvested at the level close to the five-year average. The expected increase in the 2013 cereal production will significantly strengthen the export capacity of the country up to 20.2 million tonnes including wheat export at some 15 million tonnes. In Ukraine, growing conditions for the winter and the recently planted spring crops reported to be generally good. The 2013 cereal production is expected to recover from the reduced level of last year affected by cold weather during winter and drought in parts in summer 2012. Early forecasts indicate a 2013 aggregate cereal production (winter and spring crops) of over 52 million tonnes, including 20.2 million tonnes of wheat, 22.5 million tonnes of maize and 7.4million tonnes of barley. The expected aggregated level of cereal production is by 10percent above the five-year average mainly due increased maize production. Thus, export potential of the country for wheat, barley, and maize is forecast over 25 million tonnes, including 8 million tonnes of wheat and 15 million tonnes of maize. A significant increase in wheat export is expected reflecting recovered production from the poor crop of 2012. The Agrarian Policy and Food Ministry has
Europe European Union

Prospects for 2013 cereal harvest improved with better yield prospects in several major producing countries
In the EU, the past spring has been characterized by contrasting conditions across countries: excessively wet and cold weather was unfavourable for crop development throughout a large area of central Europe, but particularly good conditions prevailed in Romania, Hungary and Spain, boosting yield prospects. However, overall, the outlook for the 2013 cereal harvest remains favourable, and latest production forecasts have been raised somewhat with respect to earlier tentative predictions. Total wheat output is forecast at 139.1million tonnes, 5.9percent up from last years crop, and slightly above expectations earlier in the season. Latest upward revisions for coarse grains have been more pronounced, mostly due to significantly improved yield prospects for barley in Spain and maize in Romania and Hungary. The latest forecast for aggregate coarse grain output in 2013 stands at 159.6 million tonnes, 12.5percent up from last year.
No. 2 n July 2013
27
returned to the practice of voluntary grain quality certification and market participants believe this will make Ukrainian production more competitive, having preserved the market mechanisms of grain quality control. In the other two European CIS countries, Belarus and the Republic of Moldova, crop conditions are reported to be satisfactory and early forecasts for this year indicate above the fiveyear average production. In Belarus, the 2013 cereal production is significantly above the five-year average (by 17percent) with a steady increase over the last four years. Moldovas cereal production is forecast to recover from the drought-reduced level in 2012.
Oceania
Early prospects for the 2013 wheat crop favourable
Prospects for the 2013 wheat crop in Australia are favourable so far, and improved in recent weeks with good rainfall arriving in eastern states and South Australia after a very dry start to the season in the autumn. The autumn rainfall in Western Australia was average to above-average. However, as of late June, soil moisture remained limited in some parts and more good rains will be needed throughout the growing season if currently projected yields are to materialize. Latest official figures put the wheat planted area at 13.7million hectares, 3percent up from the previous year, while that of barley is estimated 2percent up at 3.8 million hectares. Based on these planting estimates and assuming yields generally recover from reduced levels of last year, especially in Western Australia, wheat output in 2013 is forecast at 25.4million tonnes, almost 15 percent up from last year, while that of barley could increase by about 9.7 percent to 7.4 million tonnes. Harvesting of the 2013 summer coarse grains was virtually complete by mid-June. Sorghum production is officially estimated to have fallen by almost a quarter compared to last year, to 1.7 million tonnes. The decrease was due to a sharp drop in plantings and reduced yields, largely due to hot and dry conditions affecting the crops planted earlier in the season.
Wheat flour prices remain generally stable but high in most countries
Wheat export prices in the Russian Federation and Ukraine eased further in May, after markedly falling in April. The wholesale prices of wheat grain in the domestic markets followed the similar downward trend. However, wheat flour prices remained generally stable in most countries. Wheat flour and bread prices have remained elevated after the price surge during the second half of 2012.
Figure 12. Retail wheat and wheat our prices in Belarus, Russian Federation and Republic of Moldova
USD/kg Belarus (wheat our, national average) Rep. of Moldova (wheat, Chisinau) 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 J J A S O N D J F MAM J J A S O N D J F MAM J 2011 2012 2013 Russian Federation (wheat our, national average)
Growing conditions improved as the season progressed.
Sources: National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus; ACSA, Rep. of Moldova; Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation.
28
No. 2 n July 2013
Statistical appendix
Table A1 - Global cereal supply and demand indicators............................................................................................ .30 Table A2 - World cereal stocks................................................................................................................................. .31 Table A3 - Selected international prices of wheat and coarse grains......................................................................... .32 Table A4 - Estimated cereal import requirements of Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries 2012/13 or
2013 estimates........................................................................................................................................ .33
No. 2 n July 2013
29
Table A1. Global cereal supply and demand indicators

Average 2006/07 2010/11 1. Ratio of world stocks to utilization (%) Wheat Coarse grains Rice Total cereals 2. Ratio of major grain exporters' supplies to normal market requirements (%) 3. Ratio of major exporters' stocks to their total disappearance (%) Wheat Coarse grains Rice Total cereals 24.5 15.6 28.0 20.7
2009/10 28.6 16.8 29.8 22.8
2010/11 26.5 14.5 30.9 21.4
2011/12 26.6 15.1 33.7 22.3
2012/13 23.3 14.1 35.4 21.1
2013/14 24.0 17.3 36.4 23.2
120.9
124.2
115.6
118.0
108.0
117.0
17.5 12.8 20.3 16.9 Annual trend growth rate 2003-2012
21.7 15.2 21.6 19.5
20.8 10.4 20.9 17.4
18.4 10.3 25.4 18.0
13.7 8.0 27.4 16.4
15.1 12.7 29.2 19.0
2009 -1.1 -0.7
Change from previous year 2010 2011 2012 -0.3 7.5 4.2 1.5 -1.9 4.3
2013 7.2 0.1
4. Changes in world cereal production (%) 5. Changes in cereal production in the LIFDCs (%) 6. Changes in cereal production in the LIFDCs less India (%)
2.2 2.9
3.2 Average 2006-2010
3.8 2009 -34.6 -25.5 -14.0
7.1
-2.3
5.5
1.1 2013* 9.2 9.0 2.0
Change from previous year (%) 2010 2011 2012 9.6 12.0 -9.4 31.5 57.6 9.7 -5.5 2.2 -4.6
7. Selected cereal price indices: Wheat Maize Rice

Notes:
171.5 162.5 215.0
Utilization is defined as the sum of food use, feed and other uses. Cereals refer to wheat, coarse grains and rice; grains refer to wheat and coarse grains. Major Wheat Exporters are Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU, Kazakhstan, Russian Fed., Ukraine and the United States; Major Coarse Grain Exporters are Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, the EU, Russian Fed., Ukraine and the United States; Major Rice Exporters are India, Pakistan, Thailand, the United States, and Viet Nam. Normal market requirements for major grain exporters are defined as the average of domestic utilization plus exports in the three preceding seasons. Disappearance is defined as domestic utilization plus exports for any given season. Price indices: The wheat price index has been constructed based on the IGC wheat price index, rebased to 2002-2004=100; For maize, the U.S. maize No.2 Yellow (delivered U.S. Gulf ports) with base 2002-2004=100; For rice, the FAO Rice Price Index, 2002-2004=100, is based on 16 rice export quotations. *January-June average.
30
No. 2 n July 2013
Table A2. World cereal stocks1

(million tonnes)
2009 TOTAL CEREALS Wheat held by: - main exporters2 - others Coarse grains held by: - main exporters2 - others Rice (milled basis) held by: - main exporters2 - others Developed countries Australia Canada European Union Japan Russian Federation South Africa Ukraine United States Developing countries Asia China India Indonesia Iran (Islamic Republic of ) Korea, Republic of Pakistan Philippines Syrian Arab Republic Turkey Africa Algeria Egypt Ethiopia Morocco Nigeria Tunisia Central America Mexico South America Argentina Brazil
1 2
2010 519.8 188.3 55.4 132.9 194.0 85.8 108.2 137.5 33.4 104.1 189.4 7.4 13.6 44.0 4.8 21.1 3.1 6.7 75.9 330.4 273.3 163.7 33.7 8.3 6.2 3.8 4.2 4.9 3.6 4.2 30.4 3.6 6.6 1.5 3.1 1.2 1.5 4.3 2.4 22.1 2.2 11.6
2011 499.6 185.0 51.6 133.4 169.2 60.9 108.3 145.4 33.6 111.8 151.0 9.5 11.2 31.1 4.8 17.8 4.0 5.1 57.3 348.6 284.3 167.1 37.0 10.4 6.4 4.3 2.5 4.1 2.4 4.2 35.1 3.9 5.9 2.0 4.0 1.4 1.0 5.9 3.7 22.9 5.6 8.1
2012 520.2 182.3 44.0 138.3 176.6 56.9 119.7 161.3 41.8 119.5 147.3 7.2 9.4 31.2 5.0 14.8 2.5 10.7 49.3 372.8 307.0 175.2 44.7 12.2 5.3 4.2 2.6 3.6 1.7 5.2 37.3 4.3 8.1 1.8 4.6 1.3 1.1 4.2 2.0 23.9 5.7 8.1
2013 estimate 509.2 161.5 35.9 125.6 173.8 44.9 128.9 173.9 45.8 128.1 113.6 4.3 7.7 23.9 4.9 7.2 3.1 5.9 43.6 395.6 337.7 194.3 51.2 12.1 11.0 4.6 1.0 3.2 1.1 4.2 33.9 4.7 6.1 2.0 2.7 0.8 1.3 4.9 2.6 18.7 2.9 5.9
2014 forecast 567.5 169.5 39.2 130.3 215.6 77.6 138.0 182.4 49.6 132.8 150.2 5.0 10.2 30.8 5.0 10.6 2.4 5.1 67.7 417.3 352.5 207.1 48.8 11.9 11.9 4.9 1.0 3.2 0.9 4.7 32.1 4.8 5.6 2.0 2.9 0.8 1.2 5.6 3.2 26.8 4.8 11.1
491.2 159.7 49.7 110.0 200.3 84.8 115.5 131.2 36.1 95.1 176.5 6.6 13.0 46.9 4.6 18.1 2.5 8.0 65.9 314.8 257.9 154.9 37.5 6.4 3.9 2.8 3.8 4.2 2.9 4.1 26.0 2.7 5.6 0.8 1.4 1.3 1.5 6.2 4.2 24.4 3.7 12.5
Note: Based on official and unofficial estimates. Totals computed from unrounded data, Stocks data are based on an aggregate of carryovers at the end of national crop years and do not represent world stock levels at any point in time. Major Wheat Exporters are Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU, Kazakhstan, Russian Fed., Ukraine and the United States; Major Coarse Grain Exporters are Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, the EU, Russian Fed., Ukraine and the United States; Major Rice Exporters are India, Pakistan, Thailand, the United States, and Viet Nam.
No. 2 n July 2013
31
Table A3. Selected international prices of wheat and coarse grains

(USD/tonne)
Wheat US No.2 Hard Red Winter Ord. US Soft Red Winter No.2 2 Prot.1 Annual (July/June) 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 Monthly 2011 - June 2011 - July 2011 - August 2011 - September 2011 - October 2011 - November 2011 - December 2012 - January 2012 - February 2012 - March 2012 - April 2012 - May 2012 - June 2012 - July 2012 - August 2012 - September 2012 - October 2012 - November 2012 - December 2013 - January 2013 - February 2013 - March 2013 - April 2013 - May 2013 - June
Sources: International Grains Council and USDA.
1 2 3
Maize Argentina Trigo Pan3 154 123 138 188 318 234 224 311 264 336 US No.2 Yellow2 115 97 104 150 200 188 160 254 281 311
Sorghum US No.2 Yellow2 118 99 108 155 206 170 165 248 264 281
Argentina3 109 90 101 145 192 180 168 260 269 278
161 154 175 212 361 270 209 316 300 348
149 138 138 176 311 201 185 289 256 310
333 307 336 329 301 299 290 298 297 294 279 279 288 352 362 371 373 373 359 348 329 323 324 329 321
282 264 280 270 255 256 246 258 262 259 255 252 250 318 332 341 339 346 325 311 297 286 279 277 270
341 310 292 300 260 239 224 249 263 260 252 251 263 314 335 336 332 345 360 362 358 346 324 315 310
308 304 313 300 275 275 259 275 279 280 273 269 268 330 328 323 320 324 310 303 303 309 282 295 300
306 300 312 294 276 271 242 258 267 270 256 246 238 285 294 278 274 294 288 294 283 276 242 257 264
285 279 304 285 265 275 261 271 268 266 242 219 234 293 296 286 290 289 288 287 288 297 261 254 246
Delivered United States f.o.b. Gulf. Delivered United States Gulf. Up River f.o.b.
32
No. 2 n July 2013
Table A4a. Cereal import requirements of Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries1 , 2012/13 or 2013 estimates
(thousand tonnes)
2011/12 or 2012 Actual imports Total commercial and aid 46 605.2 18 871.0 18 871.0 8 016.0 117.1 58.8 92.5 383.0 910.7 2 138.6 85.9 536.0 2 496.7 451.2 745.5 2 500.8 242.0 340.0 164.1 1 069.7 47.0 638.0 15 358.4 11 366.1 397.0 1 848.5 1 020.0 537.0 378.3 6 787.0 132.8 265.5 3 992.3 384.5 183.9 195.0 154.3 376.5 441.1 480.7 1 776.3 1 859.0 859.6 63.0 291.0 628.4 17.0 Total import requirements
(excl. re-exports)
2012/13 or 2013 Import position2 Food aid allocated, Total commercial committed or Commercial shipped purchases and aid 15 262.1 9 205.3 9 205.3 2 396.0 18.7 6.6 43.5 27.3 136.5 559.0 15.7 56.1 785.3 83.6 663.8 1 079.2 210.8 66.2 74.9 585.4 2.9 139.1 2 225.7 1 589.6 228.1 246.8 112.0 2.1 3.4 962.2 10.7 24.4 636.1 35.5 37.4 26.2 3.0 92.4 103.2 40.4 298.1 355.9 157.7 11.1 94.1 90.4 2.6 583.2 0.0 0.0 331.0 12.4 0.0 6.8 0.0 108.0 60.3 2.6 49.2 78.4 5.8 7.6 150.6 0.0 22.0 22.4 99.8 0.0 6.5 69.6 5.4 0.0 2.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 1.3 0.0 64.2 6.1 20.8 1.7 1.9 8.3 4.6 20.9 0.0 32.0 1.8 4.2 1.8 24.2 0.0 14 678.9 9 205.3 9 205.3 2 065.0 6.3 6.6 36.7 27.3 28.5 498.7 13.1 6.9 706.9 77.8 656.2 928.6 210.8 44.2 52.5 485.6 2.9 132.6 2 156.1 1 584.2 228.1 244.0 110.9 1.9 3.4 962.1 9.4 24.4 571.9 29.4 16.6 24.5 1.1 84.1 98.6 19.5 298.1 323.9 155.9 6.9 92.3 66.2 2.6
Marketing year AFRICA North Africa Egypt Eastern Africa Burundi Comoros Djibouti Eritrea Ethiopia Kenya Rwanda Somalia Sudan Uganda United Rep. of Tanzania Southern Africa Lesotho Madagascar Malawi Mozambique Zambia Zimbabwe Western Africa Coastal Countries Benin Cte d'Ivoire Ghana Guinea Liberia Nigeria Sierra Leone Togo Sahelian Countries Burkina Faso Chad Gambia Guinea-Bissau Mali Mauritania Niger Senegal Central Africa Cameroon Cent.Afr.Rep. Congo Dem.Rep.of the Congo Sao Tome and Principe July/June Jan./Dec. Jan./Dec. Jan./Dec. Jan./Dec. Jan./Dec. Oct./Sept. Jan./Dec. Aug./July Nov./Oct. Jan./Dec. June/May April/March April/March April/March April/March May/April April/March
Commercial purchases 44 500.7 18 871.0 18 871.0 6 813.4 95.0 58.8 90.5 376.0 448.5 1 943.6 74.9 353.0 2 200.1 445.1 727.9 2 267.0 237.0 315.0 135.1 950.9 46.0 583.0 14 842.5 11 246.1 385.4 1 833.9 989.0 515.2 350.6 6 787.0 120.0 265.0 3 596.4 354.4 108.9 169.5 147.5 337.7 401.5 353.4 1 723.5 1 706.8 856.1 53.0 287.0 493.7 17.0
Food aid 2 104.5 0.0 0.0 1 202.6 22.1 0.0 2.0 7.0 462.2 195.0 11.0 183.0 296.6 6.1 17.6 233.8 5.0 25.0 29.0 118.8 1.0 55.0 515.9 120.0 11.6 14.6 31.0 21.8 27.7 0.0 12.8 0.5 395.9 30.1 75.0 25.5 6.8 38.8 39.6 127.3 52.8 152.2 3.5 10.0 4.0 134.7 0.0
40 002.7 13 421.0 13 421.0 7 687.6 140.0 59.5 96.0 406.0 1 016.0 1 950.0 97.0 540.0 2 120.1 450.0 813.0 2 340.4 266.0 393.0 105.0 931.4 25.0 620.0 14 532.7 10 907.5 447.0 1 775.0 945.0 477.0 384.0 6 520.0 114.0 245.5 3 625.2 390.9 177.8 195.5 154.3 301.2 470.5 460.0 1 475.0 2 021.0 880.0 63.0 311.0 750.0 17.0
Jan./Dec. Jan./Dec. Jan./Dec. Jan./Dec. Jan./Dec. Jan./Dec. Jan./Dec. Jan./Dec. Nov./Oct. Nov./Oct. Nov./Oct. Nov./Oct. Nov./Oct. Nov./Oct. Nov./Oct. Nov./Oct. Jan./Dec. Jan./Dec. Jan./Dec. Jan./Dec. Jan./Dec.
No. 2 n July 2013
33
Table A4b. Cereal import requirements of Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries1 , 2012/13 or 2013 estimates
(thousand tonnes)
2011/12 or 2012 Actual imports Total commercial and aid 38 503.5 4 740.3 648.3 1 168.0 2 924.0 22 702.8 1 917.6 64.8 41.4 959.7 106.3 12 493.2 45.3 136.0 501.8 5 267.4 1 169.3 11 060.4 2 250.4 5 310.0 3 500.0 1 696.0 586.5 721.9 387.6 441.9 8.7 390.2 43.0 87 246.6 Total import requirements
(excl. re-exports)
2012/13 or 2013 Import position2 Food aid allocated, Total commercial committed or Commercial shipped purchases and aid 16 055.8 2 693.2 392.1 874.1 1 427.0 10 315.4 442.4 0.0 9.4 725.5 10.8 6 394.0 3.1 14.8 1.7 2 561.6 152.1 3 047.2 350.0 2 121.2 576.0 661.6 138.9 375.2 147.6 60.2 0.3 56.8 3.1 32 039.7 368.5 3.7 3.7 0.0 0.0 304.5 17.6 0.0 0.7 266.4 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 1.7 15.6 1.1 60.3 60.3 0.0 0.0 15.3 10.3 3.8 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 967.0 15 687.3 2 689.5 388.4 874.1 1 427.0 10 010.9 424.8 0.0 8.7 459.1 10.8 6 394.0 1.7 14.8 0.0 2 546.0 151.0 2 986.9 289.7 2 121.2 576.0 646.3 128.6 371.4 146.3 60.2 0.3 56.8 3.1 31 072.7
Marketing year ASIA Cis in Asia Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Uzbekistan Far East Bangladesh Bhutan Cambodia D.P.R. of Korea India Indonesia Lao, P.D.R. Mongolia Nepal Philippines Sri Lanka Near East Afghanistan Iraq Yemen CENTRAL AMERICA Haiti Honduras Nicaragua OCEANIA Kiribati Papua New Guinea Solomon Islands TOTAL
Source: FAO
Commercial purchases 37 387.4
Food aid 1 116.1 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 836.2 161.0 0.0 4.3 602.3 0.1 3.1 4.2 0.0 24.5 6.7 30.0 277.9 212.9 15.0 50.0 81.0 62.1 15.9 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 301.6
32 727.0 3 439.3 460.3 1 013.0 1 966.0 19 175.7 2 360.0 75.4 36.4 657.0 108.3 9 814.1 44.9 116.8 486.8 4 337.0 1 139.0 10 112.0 1 252.0 5 360.0 3 500.0 1 853.8 680.1 780.0 393.7 441.9 8.7 390.2 43.0 75 025.4
July/June July/June July/June July/June July/June Jan./Dec. Nov./Oct. April/March April/March Jan./Dec. Oct./Sept. July/June July/June Jan./Dec. July/June July/June Jan./Dec. July/June July/June July/June Jan./Dec. Jan./Dec. Jan./Dec.
4 738.3 646.3 1 168.0 2 924.0 21 866.6 1 756.6 64.8 37.1 357.4 106.2 12 490.1 41.1 136.0 477.3 5 260.7 1 139.3 10 782.5 2 037.5 5 295.0 3 450.0 1 615.0 524.4 706.0 384.6 441.9 8.7 390.2 43.0 83 945.0
1 The Low-Income Food-Deficit (LIFDC) group of countries includes net food deficit countries with annual per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. USD 1 915 in 2010); for full details see http://www.fao.org/countryprofiles/lifdc.asp. 2
Estimates based on information as of early June 2013.
34
No. 2 n July 2013
GIEWS
The Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture
continuously monitors crop prospects and food security situation at global, regional, national and sub-national levels and warns of impending food difficulties and emergencies. Established in the wake of the world food crisis of the early 1970s, GIEWS maintains a unique database on all aspects of food supply and demand for every country of the world. The System regularly provides policy makers and the international community with up-to-date information so that timely interventions can be planned and suffering avoided.
Crop Prospects and Food Situation is published by the Trade and Markets Division of FAO under the Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS). It is published four times a year and focuses on developments affecting the food situation of developing countries and the Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries (LIFDCs) in particular. The report provides a review of the food situation by geographic region, a section dedicated to the LIFDCs and a list of countries requiring external assistance for food. It also includes a global cereal supply and demand overview to complement the biannual analysis in the Food Outlook publication. Crop Prospects and Food Situation is available in English, French and Spanish in electronic format. Crop Prospects and Food Situation and other GIEWS reports are available on the internet as part of the FAO world wide web (http:/www.fao.org/) at the following URL address: http:/www.fao.org/giews/. In addition, GIEWS Special Reports and Special Alerts, when published, can be received by e-mail through automatic mailing lists: subscription information is available at http:/www.fao.org/giews/english/listserv.htm. This report is based on information available as of mid-June 2013. Enquiries may be directed to: Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture (GIEWS) Trade and Markets Division (EST) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Viale delle Terme di Caracalla 00153 Rome - Italy Direct Facsimile: 0039-06-5705-4495 E-mail: GIEWS1@fao.org
Disclaimer This report is prepared by the FAOs Global Information and Early Warning System, with information from official and unofficial sources. None of the information in this report should be regarded as statements of governmental views. Furthermore, the designations employed and the presentation of material in this report do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
FAO 2013 FAO encourages the use, reproduction and dissemination of material in this information product. Except where otherwise indicated, material may be copied, downloaded and printed for private study, research and teaching purposes, or for use in non-commercial products or services, provided that appropriate acknowledgement of FAO as the source and copyright holder is given and that FAOs endorsement of users views, products or services is not implied in any way. All requests for translation and adaptation rights, and for resale and other commercial use rights should be made via www.fao.org/contactus/licence-request or addressed to copyright@fao.org.

Crop Prospects Food Situation: Highlights

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Crop Prospects Food Situation: Highlights

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Description:

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Crop Prospects Food Situation: Highlights

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

No.

Crop Prospects and Food Situation

Selected international cereal prices

Note: Prices refer to monthly average. See Table 3 for details

global information and early warning system on food and agriculture

Crop Prospects and Food Situation

Countries requiring external assistance for food1

country requiring external assistance for food

No. 2 n July 2013

Crop Prospects and Food Situation

Exceptional shortfall in aggregate food production/supplies

No. 2 n July 2013

Crop Prospects and Food Situation

Countries with unfavourable prospects for current crops2 (total: 1 country)

Key - Changes since last report (March 2013)

No. 2 n July 2013

Crop Prospects and Food Situation

Table 1. World cereal production1

No. 2 n July 2013

Crop Prospects and Food Situation

Figure 1. World cereal production and utilization

Figure 2. Ratio of world cereal stocks to utilization1

2500 2400 2300 2200 2100

Total cereals 20 Coarse grains

Table 2. Basic facts of world cereal situation

2 355.8 1 354.7 1 001.1

2 312.2 1 404.2 908.0

2 478.6 1 442.1 1 036.5

7.2 2.7 14.2

317.3 100.3 217.0

305.2 124.2 181.0

306.5 113.6 192.9

0.4 -8.6 6.6

2 329.8 1 474.2 855.6 152.2

2 335.8 1 497.6 838.3 152.5

2 414.9 1 544.3 870.6 153.3

3.4 3.1 3.9 0.5

520.2 372.8 147.3 22.3

509.2 395.6 113.6 21.1

567.5 417.3 150.2 23.2

11.5 5.5 32.2 10.0

Note: Totals and percentage change computed from unrounded data.

No. 2 n July 2013

Crop Prospects and Food Situation

Table 3. Cereal export prices*

Jan. 348 303 287 362 294 611 558

Feb. 329 303 288 358 283 616 562

May 329 295 254 315 257 574 539

June 321 300 246 310 264 550 518

288 268 234 263 239 619 545

No. 2 n July 2013

Crop Prospects and Food Situation

Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries food situation overview1

No. 2 n July 2013

Crop Prospects and Food Situation

Table 5. Cereal production1 of LIFDCs

from the 78.7 million tonnes estimate reported in March.

Table 6. Cereal import position of LIFDCs