Solution: Bernoulli Trials & Binomial Distributions
Solution: Bernoulli Trials & Binomial Distributions
Solution: Bernoulli Trials & Binomial Distributions
= =
b) Table and histogram for the distribution.
x P(x)
0 .735
1 .23
2 .31
3 .002
4 .0001
5 .000
6 .000
c) np =
6 .05 =
3 =
npq o =
6(.05)(.95) =
.53 =
0.735
0.23
0.31
0.002 0.0001 0 0
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
P
(
X
)
# of Success
18
Exercise
Each year a company selects 5 employees for a management training program given at a nearly
university. On the average, 40% of those sent complete the course in the top 10% of their class. If we
consider an employee finishing in the top 10% of the class a success in a binomial experiment, then for
the 5 employee entering the program there exists a binomial distribution involving P(x success out of 5).
a) Write the function defining the distribution
b) Construct a table and histogram for the distribution.
c) Compute the mean and standard deviation.
Solution
5 6 . 4 . = = = n q p
a)
5
5,
( ) (.4) (.6) , 0,1, 2, 3, 4, 5
x x
x
P X C x
= =
b) Table
Histogram
c) np =
5 .4 =
2 =
npq o =
5(.4)(.6) =
1.095 ~
x P(x)
0 0.078
1 0.259
2 0.346
3 0.230
4 0.077
5 0.01
0.078
0.259
0.346
0.23
0.077
0.01
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0 1 2 3 4 5
P
(
X
)
# of Success
19
Exercise
A person with tuberculosis is given a chest x-ray. Four tuberculosis x-ray specialists examine each x-ray
independently. If each specialist can detect tuberculosis 80% of the time when it is present, what is the
probability that at least 1 of the specialists will detect tuberculosis in this person?
Solution
4 2 . 8 . = = = n q p
) 1 ( 1 ) 1 ( < = > x P x P
) 0 ( 1 = = x P
998 . 0 ) 2 (. ) 8 (. 1
4 4
0 , 4
~ = C
Exercise
A pharmaceutical laboratory claims that a drug it produces causes serious side effects in 20 people out of
1,000 on the average. To check this claim, a hospital administers the drug to 10 randomly chosen patients
and finds that 3 suffer from serious side effects. If the laboratorys claims are correct, what is the
probability of the hospital obtaining these results?
Solution
0 1 98 . 02 .
1000
20
= = = = n q p
( )
10,3
3 7
3 (.02) (.98) P x C = =
0.0008 ~
Exercise
The probability that brown-eyed parents, both with the recessive gene for blue, will have a child with
brown eye is .75. If such parents have 5 children, what is the probability that they will have
a) All blue-eyed children?
b) Exactly 3 children with brown eyes?
c) At least 3 children with brown eyes?
Solution
5 5 2 . 75 . = = = n q p
a) ( )
0 5
5,0
0 (.75) (.25) 0.00098 P x C = ~ =
b) ( )
3 2
5,3
3 (.75) (.25) 0.264 P x C ~ = =
c) ( ) 3 (3) (4) (5) P x P P P > = + +
0 5
5 , 5
1 4
4 , 5
2 3
3 , 5
) 25 (. ) 75 (. ) 25 (. ) 75 (. ) 25 (. ) 75 (. C C C + + =
.897 ~
20
Exercise
The probability of gene mutation under a given level of radiation is
5
10 3
=
0.95 ~
Exercise
If the probability of a person contracting influenza on exposure is .6 consider the binomial distribution for
a family of 6 that has been exposed.
a) Write the function defining the distribution.
b) Compute the mean and standard deviation.
Solution
0.6 .4, 6 p q n = = =
a)
6
6,
( ) (.6) (.4) , 0 1 2 3 4 5, 6
x
x x
P X C x , , , , ,
= =
b) 6(.6) 3.6 np = = =
6(.6)(.4) 1.2 npq o = = =
Exercise
The probability that a given drug will produce a serious side effect in a person using the drug is .02. In the
binomial distribution for 450 people using the drug, what are the mean and standard deviation?
Solution
450 , 98 . 02 . 0 = = = n q p
np =
450 .02 =
9 =
npq o =
450 .02 .98 =
2.97 ~
21
Exercise
An opinion poll based on a small sample can be unrepresentative of the population. To see why, let us
assume that 40% of the electorate favors a certain candidate. If a random sample of 7 is asked their
preference, what is the probability that a majority will favor this candidate?
Solution
7 , 6 . 4 . 0 = = = n q p
) 7 ( ) 6 ( ) 5 ( ) 4 ( ) 4 ( P P P P x P + + + = >
0 7
7 , 7
1 6
6 , 7
2 5
5 , 7
3 4
4 , 7
) 6 (. ) 4 (. ) 6 (. ) 4 (. ) 6 (. ) 4 (. ) 6 (. ) 4 (. ) 4 ( C C C C x P + + + = >
0.29 ~
(Better than one chance out of four)
Exercise
A multiple choice test is given with 5 choices only one is correct, for each of 5 questions. Answering each
of the 5 questions by guessing constitutes a binomial experiment with an associated binomial distribution
a) Write the function defining the distribution.
b) Compute the mean and standard deviation.
Solution
1
0.2 .8, 5
5
p q n = = = =
a)
5
5,
( ) (.2) (.8) , 0 1 2 3 4 5
x
x x
P X C x , , , , ,
= =
b) 5(.2) 1 np = = =
npq o =
5(.2)(.8) =
.894 =
Exercise
Suppose a die is rolled 4 times.
a) Find the probability distribution for the number of times 1 is rolled.
b) What is the expected number of times 1 is rolled
Solution
a) ( )
( ) ( )
4,0
0 4
5 1
0
6 6
0.482 P x C ~ = =
22
( )
( ) ( )
4,1
1 3
5 1
1
6 6
0.386 P x C ~ = =
( )
( ) ( )
4,2
2 2
5 1
2
6 6
0.116 P x C ~ = =
( )
( ) ( )
4,3
3 1
5 1
3
6 6
0.0154 P x C ~ = =
( )
( ) ( )
4,4
4 0
5 1
4
6 6
0.00077 P x C = ~ =
x 0 1 2 3 4
( ) P x 0.482 0.386 0.116 0.0154 0.00077
b) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 0 0.482 1 0.386 2 0.116 3 0.0154 4 0.00077 E x = + + + +
0.667 ~