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Global water resources and their management

Holger Hoff1,2
Water resources are subject to and an integral part of global change and globalization. Interdependencies of water resources with other ecological and social systems exist at all spatial scales. They can expose water resources to exogenous pressures originating in other regions and/or sectors (teleconnections). Non-linear responses to these pressures can disturb the hydrology of ecosystems or whole regions and pose threats to water security and water-related goods and services.Water management and governance have not yet adapted to these cross-scale and cross-sectoral interdependencies and their dynamics and associated uncertainties. This paper highlights some key biophysical, socio-economic and institutional teleconnections in the global water system, such as those driven by atmospheric circulations and virtual water trade, and it outlines integrated and adaptive management and governance strategies. Water has to be recognized by a wide range of sectors and actors as a driver of change and, at the same time, impacted by these changes. Water needs have to be addressed consistently in climate, energy, trade, agricultural, development and other policies at all scales.
Addresses 1 ftriket 2b, 10691 Stockholm, Stockholm Environment Institute, Kra Sweden 2 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg, Potsdam, Germany Corresponding author: Hoff, Holger (holger.hoff@sei.se)

interdependent social and ecological components has recently been established [14]. Modications of the global water system are, for example, driven by landuse, water withdrawals, pollution, eutrophication and climate change. The underlying drivers include population growth, economic development and globalization, and changes in consumption patterns and diets. An example of the global dimension of anthropogenic modications is the total consumptive water use in rainfed and irrigated crop production, which cumulatively amounts to some 7000 km3 yr1. When including permanent grazing land, total evapotranspiration for food production reaches 1520 000 km3 yr1 [5]. To put this into perspective, this amount equals almost half of total worldwide river runoff. Given the current level of water productivity and access to food, an additional 5000 km3 yr1 will be required to produce all the food needed by 2050 [6]. Additional appropriation of water for biofuel production could be in the same order of magnitude as for food production [7]. Large dams and their reservoirs currently hold about 8300 km3 of water [8] and total water withdrawals reach 4000 km3 yr1, while conversion of natural ecosystems to cropland has increased global runoff by almost 2000 km3 yr1 [9]. Another mechanism, which interferes with the water system at a global scale, is anthropogenic CO2 emissions. These emissions have resulted in warmer temperatures and have set the worlds climate on a new trajectory with reduced water availability in many low to mid-latitude drylands, higher rainfall variability, more extreme droughts and oods, sea level rise etc [1012]. The cumulative effects of local modications of the water system, together with the pressures from a globalizing economy and global climate change, have pushed many people (about 13 billion depending on the threshold applied) into water scarcity [1316]. Many regions and basins have surpassed Peak Water2 in the sense that human withdrawals have increased beyond the level that ecosystems can sustain without signicant deterioration [17]. Resulting changes in ecosystem services cumulatively feedback to the Earth System, with, for example, changes in carbon sequestration, climate regulation or biodiversity.

Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 2009, 1:141147 This review comes from the inaugural issues Edited by Rik Leemans and Anand Patwardhan Available online 4th November 2009 1877-3435/$ see front matter # 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. DOI 10.1016/j.cosust.2009.10.001

Introductionglobalization of water resources

Water resources and their management have so far mostly been addressed at a local to basin scale. It has only recently been recognized that water resources are both subject to and an integral part of global change and globalization. The concept of a global water system1 with
The global water system is dened here as the global suite of waterrelated human, physical, biological, and biogeochemical components and their interactions or as a coupled socialecological system [3].
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1

2 Peak water indicates the possibility of reaching maximum availability or maximum human use of freshwater, used analogously to Peak Oil, which refers to the point in time when maximum oil production is reached [17].

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Individual aspects of the global water system have been addressed in recent assessments [1821] but the complex interdependencies and increasing connectivities of its different components and with other parts of the humanenvironment system are far from understood. New concepts, modeling tools and scenarios are now beginning to integrate across sectors, scales and regions, when assessing, for example, water-related carrying capacities or the potential for sustainably increasing water (and land) productivity for food and bioenergy production and other ecosystem services [5]. Water management and governance3 yet have to catch up with the scientic advances in understanding the interdependencies and dynamics of the global water system. Building resilience to cope with all these changes will require new adaptive approaches to water governance [22]. Functional and (natural and social) spatial interdependencies pose difcult challenges for global governance [23]. This paper highlights some of the spatial interdependencies in the global water system. They have, owing to their long-distance nature, also been termed teleconnections.4 The characteristics of such teleconnections will set the stage for generic principles for integrated and adaptive management and governance across scales and sectors. These will be derived and discussed.

Teleconnections in the global water system

Within the global water system, a number of biophysical, socio-economic and institutional teleconnections exist. These teleconnections link causes and effects on water resources over long distances and may result in severe disturbance or even breakdown of water-dependent socialecological systems. But they may also help to restore degraded systems. Some of these teleconnections and their characteristics are described below. Biophysical teleconnections: The atmosphere integrates the effects of human activities and connects them to impacts on water resources across regions. Two examples illustrate this type of biophysical teleconnection: (a) Rapid irrigation development in India, mostly groundwater-based (withdrawals have increased 113-fold between 1950 and 1985) has increased evapotranspiration by about 340 km3 yr1 or 17% above pre-industrial levels (55% in the dry season). The subsequent changes in mesoscale atmospheric
3 Water governance here used as the range of political, social, economic, and administrative systems that are in place to regulate the development and management of water resources and provision of water services at different levels of societyso water governance provides the framework in which water management takes place. 4 A teleconnection is understood here a cause-and-effect chain that operates through several intermediate steps and leads to unexpected linkages [1].

circulations could destabilize the regions monsoon system [24,25], upon which hundreds of millions of people depend for their water supply. From this destabilization atmospheric teleconnections along the global monsoon systems were postulated [26]. A few recent studies show that such teleconnections indeed exist between the Indian and African monsoon systems. The mechanism involves the stimulation of an atmospheric circulation over northern India that can propagate westward towards North Africa (e.g. [27]). Hence intensication of water use in India may eventually affect water, food and environmental security in parts of Africa. (b) Rapid deforestation in Amazonia (recently up to 25 000 km2 yr1), primarily for agriculture, has changed the partitioning of precipitation towards less evapotranspiration and, as a consequence, more runoff. This shift is caused by a reduction in leaf area, height, roughness, and rooting depth of agricultural vegetation compared with the original rainforest. This primary effect has increased river discharge by about 25% over the past few decades, as observed in the Amazonian sub-basins Tocantins and Araguaia [28]. But modeling studies also show a secondary effect with potential long-distance teleconnections. When deforested areas cumulatively grow beyond a certain size, then decreasing atmospheric moisture and reduced water recycling can dry up a larger region, possibly the whole Amazon forest [28,29]. Such a positive feedback loop of less forest cover resulting in less evapotranspiration, less precipitation, reduced water availability and dieback of the remaining forest, can eventually extend far beyond the area of deforestation and have far reaching effects. This could, for example, result in reduced atmospheric moisture supply for the La Plata basin [30]. Hence intensication of landuse in Amazonia may eventually affect water, food and environmental security in other parts of South America and possibly beyond.

Socio-economic teleconnections: Amazonian deforestation and the associated hydrological impacts within and beyond the region, are largely driven by another type of teleconnection, originating from economic globalization and agricultural trade. Brazils meat exports, which involve about 10 tons of virtual water5 export per ton of meat, and soybean exports have grown by about 15% annually for the past 15 years [31]. China recently has become the largest importer of
5 Virtual water is the amount of water required to produce a certain commodity, in particular a crop or livestock, which is virtually embedded and traded with the respective agricultural commodity. This amount of water is saved by the importing country when it does not produce these goods locally.

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Brazilian soybean (imports growing by about 20% per year). This externally driven resource exploitation may further accelerate, especially as foreign investors now begin to purchase land in Amazonia for soy production, avoiding the volatility of international commodity markets (This is termed land grabbing by von Braun and Meinzen-Dick [32]). Furthermore, increasing domestic and international demand for biofuel from, in particular, sugarcane competes with soybean for land in other parts of Brazil, pushing even more soybean production into Amazonia [33]. The effects of such global market chains, trade and foreign investments or land grabbing on local to regional water systems have not been addressed in any international trade regimes or other international regulations. In the case of Brazil, the overexploitation and degradation of water resources and ecosystems is linked to Chinas increasing food and fodder imports. Through these imports, China externalizes more of its growing water demand, which is driven in particular by changing diets (i.e. more meat and dairy products) in conjunction with higher income. Chinas per capita water demand for food increased from about 250 to 860 m3 yr1 between 1961 and 2003 [34]. At the same time, industrialization, urbanization and afforestation programs have reduced the available cropland in China and there is thus also less soil water directly from precipitation (green water)6 available for food production. This increases the demand for irrigation water (blue water)7a demand that can no longer be met domestically, given the existing overexploitation of water resources and competing urban and industrial demands. Lester Brown concluded as early as 1995 that massive grain decits lie ahead of China so it will inevitably be forced to import heavily to satisfy future food demand [35]. Chinas accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001 may have provided an important impetus for increasing imports, as indicated by the increasing soybean imports immediately after 2001 [36]. Other water scarce countries, in, for example, the Middle EastNorth Africa (MENA) region, also increasingly rely on external water resources for their food (and possibly also future biofuel) supply [37,38]. Large amounts of virtual water are traded with agricultural commodities throughout the world. Already now, 2.3 billion people would suffer from water scarcity (assuming a green-blue water scarcity threshold of 1300 m3 yr1 cap1) if food self sufciency had to be achieved at a country level [39]. This actually means that their water and food security
6 Green water: soil water held in the unsaturated zone, formed by precipitation and available to plants. 7 Blue water: water in rivers, lakes, wetlands and aquifers, which can be withdrawn for irrigation and other human uses.

depends on virtual water imports (besides a number of other factors). Globally, virtual water trade saves 300450 km3 yr1 [4042], by substituting local food production with less water-intensive production in other regions. 16% of global water consumption is included as virtual water in exported food, and the exports of virtual water from the US to southeast Asia alone amount to some 80 km3 yr1. This globalization of water also externalizes resource depletion and degradation to other regions, e.g. the decrease of the Ogallala Aquifer beneath the Great Plains in the United States or the Aral Sea in central Asia. About 20% of the drying up of the Aral Sea has been attributed to water abstractions for the EUs cotton imports from former Soviet Union [40]. Institutional teleconnections: Water-relevant institutions and policies present yet another type of teleconnections that impact local water resources across long distances. Besides the global effects of trade and trade regimes, also international conventions (e.g. the Clean Development Mechanism of the Climate Convention) and development programs can signicantly impact local water resources through externally driven (and funded) activities. Water-intensive afforestations and carbon sequestration schemes may have resulted in water scarcity in some regions [43,44]. International development projects may have been one of the positive drivers of change, for example in the recent greening of the Sahel, where vegetation and water (precipitation) seem to augment each other in a positive feedback loop. Similarly, the Great Green Wall Initiative for the Sahel [45], which is promoted by a number of international institutions, may result in exogenously driven water and vegetation responses.

Managing global water resources

While the dynamics of global water system with its interdependencies and teleconnections are not fully understood yet, some key mechanisms have been identied that can guide the management of global water resources across international boundaries. Conventional water management strategies alone cannot cope with these complex interdependencies and teleconnections. Integrated approaches, institutional changes and interventions across sectors and scales (i.e. horizontal and vertical integration) will be required. First, a paradigm shift is required in water management itself. Inclusion of the full water resource instead of only blue water (the water in rivers, lakes and groundwater) is urgently needed. Green water (i.e. soil water directly from precipitation) plays a central role in supporting humans, ecosystems and ecosystem services (c.f. the15 20 000 km3 yr1 green plus blue evapotranspiration in food production versus 1400 km3 yr1 consumptive irrigation blue water use discussed earlier). Green and blue
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water together create the bloodstream of the biosphere [46]. In return ecosystems regulate the hydrological cycle, acting as a natural water infrastructure [47]. Both the productivity of green water and stable blue water availability (across regions) can be improved signicantly through better ecosystem (including land) management and planning. Hence, the conventional water management approach needs to be widened to become Integrated Water and Land Resource Management (i.e. from IWRM to IWLRM) at local to regional scales [44,48], exploiting the full spectrum of green and blue water management measures. This is particularly important for the dryland regions because of their vulnerable water supply due to variable rainfall and drought conditions. In situations of extreme water scarcity, where such an integrated management approach is still not sufcient, these regions could be supported through additional virtual water from regions with a ample water supply. Second, climate protection is essential given the negative impacts of climate change on water systems, such as regional reductions in rainfall, increasing variability and extremes, and the subsequent uncertainties in water management [12]. Climate change mitigation measures, such as carbon sequestration and biofuel plantations, can limit some of these impacts. However, tradeoffs have to be assessed, for example when determining the dependence and effects on water resources of mitigation measures [7]. These mitigation measures may be so water-intensive that they cannot be sustained in some regions under a future drier climate [49]. Another example of current lack of integration between climate adaptation and mitigation is desalination (with a projected global growth rates of about 10% per year [50]). Its dependence on fossil fuels contributes to additional climate change. Climate protection targets and negotiations also need to take into account water-related impacts, considering the above mentioned teleconnections and their underlying drivers. Third, recent globalization trends have increased the vulnerability of water systems. Therefore, a more sustainable trade strategy must be developed and implemented to reduce its negative impacts on water systems. To achieve this, local, national and international adaptation measures and policies need to be further integrated. Locally, minimum water (and land) rights for the local population and environmental ow requirements must gain priority over water allocations for export production. Nationally, coordination across different sectors and institutions (in particular water, environment, agriculture, trade) can protect water resources. Internationally, consumers, producers and institutions (such as WTO) need to be informed (e.g. through labeling) about the water intensities and sustainability of water use of different commodities from specic regions and resulting
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water footprints.8 Growing awareness, less water-intensive consumption patterns and diets (in particular less meat) and improved efciency along the supply chain can reduce virtual water imports and their negative impacts in the exporting region. Financial instruments such as tradable certicates or taxes eventually paid for by the customers of water-intensive products as currently discussed for the global common goods climate and atmosphere may also be applicable in modied form for water [51]. As in the case of CO2, border tax adjustments would force countries to take external water scarcities into account. The revenues generated from these instruments, when applied to virtual water trade, could be used to protect or rehabilitate water resources. Virtual water trade can become a tool for adapting to increasing water scarcity. This however would require prices of agricultural commodities and (irrigation) water to reect water scarcity, which is currently not the case in most countries. Prices become distorted because of various agricultural subsidies (e.g. irrigation subsidies that are not yet coupled to sustainable water use), policies (e.g. food self sufciency) and institutional shortcomings (e.g. the disconnect between economic and environmental goals). Virtual water trade in some cases even exacerbates water stress. Examples include the high (blue) virtual water exports from South Asia [52] or the need for longdistance water transfers (another type of teleconnection) within China and India. Such transfers of real water compensate for virtual water transfers from drier to wetter regions. For example, China is transferring virtual water from the dry north to the wet south in the same order of magnitude as the projected real water transfers in the opposite direction through the SouthNorth Water Transfer project [53]. Indias wet east is a net importer of virtual water from the drier rest of the country, while the proposed National River Linking Program would transfer similar amounts of real water in the opposite direction [54]. With integrated policies across scales and sectors, trade could be a problem solver instead of a source of waterrelated problems.

Conclusionsbridging science and global water management

Science is providing growing evidence that anthropogenic modications of the water system are now global in extent, and water management and other activities in one region may have far-reaching consequences in the global water system. Policy and decision making at all
8 Water footprint: the water footprint of a person or group of persons or country is dened as the volume of water needed for the production of the goods and services consumed by them. Internal footprints refer to domestic water use, external footprints to water used in other countries for goods and services imported [40].

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scales should take these interdependencies and externalities into account. The management of water resources needs to be informed by integrated assessments across scales, for example, in terms of future water limitations, and (aggregate) effects and teleconnections of interventions, such as deforestation, afforestation or irrigation. International trade and foreign investments need to take into account their effects on water resources across regions. This means that there is a need for coherence (consistency and coordination) in water-related management and governance, across scales, sectors, and institutions. Coherence across scales: Water management is currently mostly taking place at a local to basin scale and water governance at the national scale. In the future, water management should be coherently addressed by local action, such as land and water use, national policies, such as agricultural or export subsidies, and international agreements, such as protocols to the climate convention or trade regimes, in order to achieve vertical integration of governance systems across levels [23]. Increasing attention also needs to be paid to the subsidiarity principle, which ensures that decisions are taken as closely as possible to individual citizens. Adhering to this principle will facilitate the necessary networks and cooperation and increase the sharing of benets across scales [55]. Coherence across sectors: Water will have to become a priority issue in land management and planning, environment, agriculture, trade, energy and development. Coordinated policy making across sectors is an appropriate response to the complex interdependencies and uncertainties in water systems [22]. Ofcial development assistance, for example, may support sustainable water use in some countries more effectively than trade restrictions or even boycotts of imported water-intensive products from these countries. Institutional arrangements are required that facilitate the coproduction, translation and negotiation of knowledge across different levels [56]. Coherence across institutions: A wide range of institutions and policies implicitly deal with and affect water resources across scales and sectors, and hence need to be coordinated along jointly dened water management and governance objectives, possibly in nested institutional arrangements [56]. For example, national climate adaptation, mitigation and energy policies and regional policies, like EUs Common Agricultural Policy or its biofuel target (i.e. 10% by 2020), UN conventions and international organizations (e.g. WTO and the World Bank) are closely interlinked with water resources. There are also a number of other global water institutions, including several UN organizations (now under the umbrella of UN Water), NGOs, transnational water companies etc, but none of them addresses the challenges to global water resources, as described in this paper, in a systematic and integrated way. Funding for global water
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management and governance (such as the Global Environmental Facility, which is limited to transboundary waters) also remains fragmented and lacks coherence. So, there is a need to coherently address management and development of water resources across institutions. Economic incentives, which often are an effective means to achieve the required changes, can be applied across scales, sectors and institutions in the water system. Payments for environmental services have locally been employed to protect water (and other natural) resources [57]. National water markets, such as those in Australia, can increase water productivity and reduce negative externalities. Globally, nancial incentives, such as tradable permits, may be expanded to water and virtual water trade. Any of these measures or strategies, however, must be based on solid scientic knowledge, in order to avoid unwanted side effects or mal-adaptation. Research on the dynamics and interdependencies of the biophysical and socio-economic components of water systems across scales, as well as on multi-level and nested institutional responses, needs to support the management and governance of global water resources towards water security, equity and sustainability.

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