JOINT WMO TECHNICAL PROGRESS REPORT ON THE GLOBAL DATA

PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEM AND NUMERICAL

WEATHER PREDICTION RESEARCH ACTIVITIES FOR 2013
HUNGARIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE, BUDAPEST
1. Summary ! "#$"%#$"&'
Both global (ECMWF) and limited area models (LAM: ALADIN, ARME, WRF) models are !sed in
the "ore#asting $ra#ti#e% LAMs are r!n lo#all& at the '!ngarian Meteorologi#al (er)i#e (M(*) on
a IBM IData+le, Lin!, #l!ster% ECMWF is !sed "or medi!m range "ore#asts in#l!ding its E+(
#om$onent, ALADIN and ARME are !sed "or short and )er& short range "ore#asts, in#l!ding an
E+( #om$onent o" ALADIN% A lo#al -D.AR data assimilation s&stem is r!n o$erationall& "or both
ALADIN and ARME% Radar data (radial /ind and re"le#ti)it&) are e,$erimentall& assimilated in the
ARME -D.AR s&stem% Besides data assimilation, lo#al de)elo$ments on the ALADIN and
ARME model are done regarding $h&si#al $arametri0ations and ensemble $redi#tion% 1he WRF
model is !sed as an n!meri#al /eather $redi#tion ba#2gro!nd "or the MEANDER no/#asting
s&stem de)elo$ed at M(*%
(. E)u#*m+,& #, u'+
IBM iData+le, (er)er /ith 345 Intel 6eon 67775 $ro#essors (8 #ore9$ro#), (:I Alti, -;55 ser)er
/ith 355 Itani!m3 $ro#essors (<,7 :'0 $ro#essors), '+ L-555 #l!ster ser)er /ith 3,8 $ro#essors,
'+ R6;=85 #l!ster ser)er /ith 3,= Itani!m3 $ro#essors, (:I Alti, -75 ser)er /ith <= Itani!m3
$ro#essors> +C (Lin!, and Mi#roso"t) /or2stations, EMC
3
CLARiiN C68?845, C6?;55 (ba#2!$)
and IBM D(-855 dis2 storage s&stems (@7 1b&te nati)e #a$a#it&), IBM -748 L18 Altri!m 49335
1a$e Librar& (aro!nd 355 1b&te #a$a#it&), 38 Lin!,9Ani, ser)ers (!sed "or: Message (/it#hing
(&stem, F1+, mail ser)er, and other s$e#ial meteorologi#al $!r$oses), ; Windo/s ser)ers, as /ell
as CI(C ro!ters and s/it#hes%
-. Da&a a,. Pr.u/&' !rm GTS #, u'+
1he dail& statisti#s o" b!lletins:
(BN+ ((M,(I,(N) ? 7755
(BNBAFR (I(M, I(I, I(M) ? ;855
1EM+ (A(,AC,AL,AE) D 445
1EM+BAFR (IAC, IA() ? =;5
ME1AR ((A) D 4=55
:RID (:) D 5
:RIB (') D -=55
FA6 (+,E:D) D -=
+N: (+',+1,+W,E) ? 8=5
RADAR (+A) D @75
Wind$ro"iler (IA+D) D <<;55
AMDAR (IAAD, AD) ? <355
0. Fr+/a'&#,$ 'y'&+m
0.1 Sy'&+m ru, '/"+.u%+ a,. !r+/a'& ra,$+'
1he ALADIN short range "ore#asting model is e,e#!ted on the IBM ma#hine "o!r times a da& (at
55, 5=, <3 and <4 A1C net/or2 times) $ro)iding 78h, 84h, 84h, -=h "ore#asts, res$e#ti)el&% Model
r!ns are #o!$led /ith the ECMWF deterministi# "ore#ast /ith a =h time lag, !sing CANARI s!r"a#e
anal&sis and lo#al -D?.AR data assimilation "or !$$er air% 1he ARME !ltra?short range
"ore#asting model re#ei)es its initial? and bo!ndar& #onditions "rom the ECMWF model too, a -
ho!rl& -D.AR data assimilation #&#le $ro)ides its initial #onditions "or the !$$er air, and
inter$olated s!r"a#e (soil) "ields are !sed "rom the ALADIN model% ARME is also e,e#!ted "o!r
times a da& (/ith the same starting times as "or ALADIN), and is integrated "or 84 ho!rs ("or 55 and
<3 A1C r!ns) or "or -= ho!rs ("or 5= A1C and <4 A1C r!ns)% 1he << ALADIN LAME+( members
are #om$!ted /ith +EAR+ initial and bo!ndar& #onditions "or =5 ho!rs on#e a da& at <4 A1C% 1he
medi!m, e,tended and long range "ore#asts are $ro)ided on the basis o" the ECMWF $rod!#ts%
1he data $ro#essing and )is!alisation are made on '+ R6 ser)ers, /or2stations and also on lin!,
+C?s%
0.( M+.#um ra,$+ !r+/a'&#,$ 'y'&+m 10213 .ay'4
0.(.1 Da&a a''#m#%a&#,, 56+/&#7+ a,a%y'#' a,. #,#&#a%#8a&#,
8%3%<%< In o$eration
Lo#all& none (see ECMWF)
8%3%<%3Resear#h $er"ormed in this "ield
Lo#all& none (see ECMWF)
0.(.( M.+%
8%3%3%< In o$eration
Lo#all& none (see ECMWF)
8%3%3%3Resear#h $er"ormed in this "ield
Lo#all& none (see ECMWF)
0.(.- O*+ra&#,a%%y a7a#%a5%+ Num+r#/a% W+a&"+r Pr+.#/&#, Pr.u/&'
Lo#all& none ($rod!#ts are re#ei)ed thro!gh ECMWF dissemination #hannels)%
0.(.0 O*+ra&#,a% &+/",#)u+' !r a**%#/a&#, ! NWP *r.u/&' (MOS, PPM, KF, Expert
Systems, etc..)
8%3%8%< In o$eration
<5 da&s "ore#asts o" ECMWF deterministi# model and ensemble $redi#tion s&stem are
o$erationall& !sed% Meteorologi#al "ields are dis$la&ed on /or2stations b& the 'AWC ('!ngarian
Ad)an#ed WorCstation) )is!alisation so"t/are% A!tomati# "ore#ast generation is #arried o!t based
on the o!t$!ts o" the ECMWF model !ntil <5 da&s% 1he $rod!#ts o" the ensemble $redi#tion
s&stem are #l!stered /ith a #l!stering algorithm targeted to the Car$athian Basin%
8%3%8%3Resear#h $er"ormed in this "ield
+otential im$ro)ements to the #l!stering method and $otential "or E+( #alibration /ere
in)estigated%
0.(.9 E,'+m5%+ Pr+.#/&#, Sy'&+m 1EPS4
8%3%7%< In o$eration
Lo#all& none (see ECMWF)

8%3%7%3 Resear#h $er"ormed in this "ield
E+( #alibration !sing ECMWFFs re"ore#ast model #limate data /as in)estigated and #alibration
method has been o$erationall& introd!#ed%
8%3%7%- $erationall& a)ailable E+( +rod!#ts
Indi)id!al members
Two-dimensional fields: mean sea le)el $ress!re, <5m /inds$eed and /ind g!sts, 3m tem$erat!re
and relati)e h!midit&, #on)e#ti)e and "rontal $re#i$itation (in#l!ding sno/), s!nshine d!ration and
solar radiation% Calibrated 3m tem$erat!re, $re#i$itation and <5m /ind s$eed are a)ailable "or
area o" '!ngar&%
Three-dimensional fields: 1hese "ields are obtained on 7 $ress!re le)els (on <555, @37, 475, ;55
and 755 h+a)% 1he )ariables, #o)ering all E!ro$e are as "ollo/s: geo$otential, tem$erat!re, /ind
"ield, relati)e h!midit&% In addition to standard $ress!re "ields =3 model le)el "ields are also
a)ailable #o)ering Car$athian?basin%
Wide range o" lo#all& de)elo$ed $rod!#ts li2e E+( meteograms, E+( $l!mes $robabilit& o"
e,#eeding a gi)en limit are a)ailable% Com$lementing standard ECMWF E+( $rod!#ts, lo#al
#l!stering is made, #l!ster means and re$resentati)e members are $ro)ided% Ensemble )erti#al
$ro"ile based on "!ll =3 model le)els are also $ro)ided "or the "ore#asters%
0.- S"r&2ra,$+ !r+/a'&#,$ 'y'&+m 132:( "r'4
0.-.1 Da&a a''#m#%a&#,, 56+/&#7+ a,a%y'#' a,. #,#&#a%#8a&#,
8%-%<%< In o$eration
1he o$erational n!meri#al /eather $redi#tion model ALADIN9'A is a$$lied !sing a three?
dimensional )ariational data assimilation (-D?.AR) algorithm "or the #om$!tation o" initial "ields "or
the n!meri#al model% 1he main #hara#teristi#s o" the data assimilation s&stem are as "ollo/s:
bser)ations: (BN+ s!r"a#e meas!rements (s!r"a#e $ress!re, 3 metre tem$erat!re and
relati)e h!midit&), 1EM+ !$$er air so!ndings (tem$erat!re, /ind, geo$otential, s$e#i"i#
h!midit&), AMDAR air#ra"t re$orts (tem$erat!re, /ind), A1.( satellite obser)ations
(AM(A?A, AM(A?B, M'( radian#es), M(:39(A1B, M(:39(E.IRI satellite obser)ations
and /ind$ro"iler data%
Assimilation #&#le: = ho!rs
Anal&ses method: $timal inter$olation (CANARI) "or the s!r"a#e and three?dimensional
)ariational data assimilation "or !$$er air
Anal&sed )ariables: soil tem$erat!re and moist!re, tem$erat!re, h!midit&, /ind
#om$onents, s!r"a#e $ress!re
First g!ess: ALADIN =h "ore#asts
Co)erage: Continental E!ro$e
'ori0ontal resol!tion: 4 2m
.erti#al resol!tion: 8@ le)els
Initialisation: digital "ilter initialisation
Bo!ndar& #onditions: ECMWF global model
An o$erational -D.AR data assimilation s&stem is also in $la#e "or the ARME model (at 3%7 2m
/ith =5 )erti#al le)els) resol!tion "or the region o" the Car$athian?basin% 1he assimilation #&#le is
r!n /ith a - ho!r "reG!en#& !sing s!r"a#e, radiosond and air#ra"t obser)ations%
8%-%<%3 Resear#h $er"ormed in this "ield
Contin!o!s im$ro)ement o" the o$erational data assimilation s&stem in obser)ation !sage and
ba#2gro!nd error modelling (ALADIN model)% De)elo$ment o" the ARME data assimilation
s&stem /ill in)ol)e the !se o" satellite data (s!#h as !sed in the ALADIN assimilation s&stem b!t in
higher resol!tion) and o" radar obser)ations (radial /ind and re"le#ti)it&)%
8%-%3 Model
8%-%3%< In o$eration
1he o$erational ALADIN;HU limited area NW+ model is a )ersion o" the ALADIN model designed
"or the region o)er #ontinental E!ro$e% 1he main #hara#teristi#s o" the ALADIN model are as
"ollo/s:
'&drostati# $rimiti)e eG!ations>
1he eG!ations are sol)ed !sing the s$e#tral method ha)ing elli$ti#al tr!n#ation o" bi?Fo!rier
series>
'&brid )erti#al #o?ordinates>
1/o?time le)el semi?Lagrangian ad)e#tion s#heme>
(emi?im$li#it time?ste$$ing>
Da)ies?Callberg #o!$ling (rela,ation) s#heme>
1he ne/ ALAR $h&si#al $arameteri0ation $a#2age is !sed (radiation, mi#ro$h&si#s, dee$
#on)e#tion, bo!ndar& la&er t!rb!len#e)
1he main #hara#teristi#s o" the ALADIN;HU a$$li#ation are the "ollo/ing:
Domain #o)ering #ontinental E!ro$e>
Integration "o!r times a da& (at 55, 5=, <3 and <4 A1C) "or 78, 84, 84, -= ho!rs, res$e#ti)el&>
-=5H-35 $oints in hori0ontal and 8@ )erti#al model le)els,
A$$ro,imatel& 4 2m o" hori0ontal resol!tion>
Co!$ling to the ECMWF global model at e)er& - ho!rs>
+ost?$ro#essed $rod!#ts e)er& ho!r on -3 $ress!re and @ height le)els, high resol!tion (72m
hori0ontal, <5 m )erti#al !$ to 755 m) d&nami#al ada$tation o" /ind e)er& <7 min%
1he main #hara#teristi#s o" the o$erational AROME model are the "ollo/ing:
Non?h&drostati# $rimiti)e eG!ations>
$h&si#s based on MesoN'
1he eG!ations are sol)ed !sing the s$e#tral method ha)ing elli$ti#al tr!n#ation o" bi?Fo!rier
series>
'&brid )erti#al #o?ordinates>
1/o?time le)el semi?Lagrangian ad)e#tion s#heme>
(emi?im$li#it time?ste$$ing>
Da)ies?Callberg #o!$ling (rela,ation) s#heme>
Domain #o)ering the Car$athian Basin>
Integration "o!r times a da& (at 55, 5=, <3 and <4 A1C) "or 84, -=, 84, -= ho!rs,
res$e#ti)el&>
755H-35 $oints in hori0ontal and =5 )erti#al model le)els,
A$$ro,imatel& 3%7 2m o" hori0ontal resol!tion>
Co!$ling to the ECMWF model at e)er& ho!r>
+ost?$ro#essed $rod!#ts e)er& ho!r on 3< $ress!re and <; height le)els%
8%-%3%3 Resear#h $er"ormed in this "ield
1he model de)elo$ments "o#!s on the im$ro)ement o" the ARME model !nder di""erent
#onditions, /here #!rrentl& dra/ba#2s are obser)ed% 1hese #o)er the st!d& o" hori0ontal di""!sion
"or #on)e#ti)e #ases, the de)elo$ment o" the t!rb!len#e s#heme "or /inter in)ersion #ases and
late a"ternoon transition and the im$ro)ement o" the /ind g!st $arameteri0ation% Regarding the
ALADIN9'A model, latest de)elo$ments "o#!sed on the im$ro)ement o" the diagnosti#s o" 3m
tem$erat!re and relati)e h!midit& as /ell as <5m /ind g!sts and #lo!diness%
0.-.- O*+ra&#,a%%y a7a#%a5%+ NWP *r.u/&'
Two-dimensional fields
mean sea le)el and s!r"a#e $ress!re,
s!r"a#e tem$erat!re
#on)e#ti)e (ALADIN) and "rontal $re#i$itation, in#l!ding sno/ and gra!$el (ARME)
#lo!diness, in#l!ding lo/, medi!m, high le)el and #on)e#ti)e (ALADIN) #lo!ds
sno/?/ater eG!i)alent, sno/ de$th (ARME)
<5m /ind and /ind g!st
3m tem$erat!re, 3m de/ $oint tem$erat!re and 3m relati)e h!midit&
3m minim!m and ma,im!m tem$erat!re
$ress!re and tem$erat!re o" the ICA Iet
s!r"a#e $ress!re tenden#&
total $re#i$itable /ater
short /a)e radiation arri)ing to the s!r"a#e
$lanetar& bo!ndar& la&er height (ARME)
stabilit& indi#es (C, ((I, et#%)
Three-dimensional fields
1hese "ields are obtained on @ height le)els in the $lanetar& bo!ndar& la&er:
35, <55, -55, 755, =55, ;75, @55, <375, <755 meters "or ALADIN and
35, 75, <55, 375, -55, 755, =55, ;75, @55, <555, <375, <755 meters "or ARME
and on -3 $ress!re le)els:
<555, @@5, @45, @;5, @=5, @75, @85, @37, @55, 445, 4=5, 475, 485, 435, 455, ;45, ;=5, ;85,
;35, ;55, =75, =55, 775, 755, 875, 855, -75, -55, 375, 355, <75, <55 h+a "or ALADIN and
ARME
1he )ariables are as "ollo/s:
$ress!re (onl& on height le)els and onl& "or ALADIN)
tem$erat!re
/ind "ield
relati)e h!midit&
$se!do?$otential tem$erat!re (onl& on $ress!re le)els "or ARME)
#lo!d /ater and i#e (ARME)
rain, sno/, gra!$el (ARME)
geo$otential (onl& on $ress!re le)els),
)erti#al )elo#it& (onl& on $ress!re le)els),
di)ergen#e (onl& on $ress!re le)els),
$otential tem$erat!re (onl& on $ress!re le)els),
$otential )orti#it& (onl& on $ress!re le)els)
absol!te )orti#it& (onl& on $ress!re le)els)

Dynamical adaptation of wind: 'igh resol!tion /ind "ields at 3, <5, 35, -5, 85, 75, =5, ;5, 45, @5,
<55, <<5, <35, <-5, <85, <75, <=5, <;5, <45, <@5, 355, 3<5, 335, 3-5, 385, 375, 3=5, 3;5,
345, 3@5, -55, -<5, -35, --5, -85, -75, -=5, -;5, -45, -@5, 855, 8<5, 835, 8-5, 885, 875,
8=5, 8;5, 845, 8@5, 755 m%
0.-.0 O*+ra&#,a% &+/",#)u+' !r a**%#/a&#, ! NWP *r.u/&'
8%-%8%< In o$eration
A!tomated $rod!#t (image, te,t, #ode) generation%
8%-%8%3 Resear#h $er"ormed in this "ield
None
0.-.9 E,'+m5%+ Pr+.#/&#, Sy'&+m
8%-%7%< In o$eration
1he o$erational n!meri#al /eather $redi#tion model ALADIN9'A is !sed in the LAME+(, /ith the
"ollo/ing $ro$erties:
Domain and resol!tion are identi#al to the deterministi# ALADIN:
Domain is #o)ering #ontinental E!ro$e
A$$ro,imatel& 4 2m o" hori0ontal resol!tion
-=5H-35 $oints in hori0ontal
8@ )erti#al le)els
<< members
Co!$ling in e)er& = ho!rs to the "irst << members o" the <4A1C r!n o" +EAR+ (global E+(
o" Meteo Fran#e)
Integration is started at <4 A1C "or =5 ho!rs
ALAR $h&si#s is !sed as in deterministi# ALADIN
8%-%7%3 Resear#h $er"ormed in this "ield
Resear#h abo!t initial #ondition $ert!rbations:
+ert!rbation generation /ith targeted lo#al sing!lar )e#tors
+ert!rbation generation /ith $ert!rbed obser)ation in data assimilation #&#le
E,$eriments /ith #o!$ling to di""erent global E+( (#om$arison o" +EAR+ and ECMWF
E+()
E,$eriments /ith an ARME E+( at 3%7 2m resol!tion% 1his in)ol)es the re$resentation
initial !n#ertainties (do/ns#aling o" the +EAR+ (ing!lar .e#tor J Ensemble Data
Assimilation) and the model errors ((++1: (to#hasti#all& +ert!rbed +arametri0ation
1enden#ies)
8%-%7%- $erationall& a)ailable E+( +rod!#ts
Indi)id!al members #an be )is!ali0ed "or the ne,t $arameters:
Near surface fields: mean sea le)el $ress!re, 3m tem$erat!re and relati)e h!midit&, #on)e#ti)e
and "rontal $re#i$itation (in#l!ding sno/), <5m /ind s$eed and /ind g!st, #lo!diness (total,
#on)e#ti)e and three le)els)
Pressure level fields: 1hese "ields are obtained on 4 $ress!re le)els (on <555, @37, 475, ;55, 755,
-55, 355, <55 h+a)% 1he )ariables are as "ollo/s: geo$otential, tem$erat!re, /ind "ield, relati)e
h!midit&%
E+( mean )al!es "or the same $arameters than at indi)id!al members
+robabilities /ith di""erent thresholds "or the "ollo/ing $arameters: 3 meter tem$erat!re,
$re#i$itation, /ind s$eed, /ind g!st%
+l!me diagrams "or the bigger '!ngarian #ities /ith the "ollo/ing $arameters: 3 meter
tem$erat!re, <5 meter /ind s$eed, $re#i$itation, 475h+a tem$erat!re, 755h+a
geo$otential
8%8 No/#asting and .er& (hort?range Fore#asting (&stems (5?= hrs)
8%8%< No/#asting s&stem (MEANDER?WRF s&stem)
1he no/#asting s&stem o" the '!ngarian Meteorologi#al (er)i#e (MEANDER) /as de)elo$ed as a
tool "or re#ogni0ing and $redi#ting se)ere /eather $henomena in obIe#ti)e /a&% 1he s&stem has
t/o main $arts: a non linear d&nami#al and a linear e,tra$olation $art%
1he non linear segment is based on the WRF model% 1he "irst segment o" the WRF model r!ns on
a domain that #o)ers the Car$athian basin and $rod!#es J-= ho!rs "ore#ast e)er& si, ho!rs% 1his
segment (named WRF?AL+'A) !ses ECMWF data "or bo!ndar& #onditions% 1he se#ond segments
o" the WRF model (WRF?BE1A) r!ns in e)er& ho!r and !ses n!dging te#hniG!e o" the model% 1he
-D n!dging $ro#ed!re a$$lies ho!rl& s!r"a#e obser)ations and radar re"le#ti)it& and WRF?AL+'A
data as "irst g!ess% 1he length o" the n!dging term is 3 ho!rs% 1he WRF?BE1A $ro)ides - ho!rs
"ore#ast /ith <7 min!tes time resol!tion "or the linear no/#asting segment%
1he linear no/#asting segment is the MEANDER s&stem /hi#h r!ns e)er& <7 min!tes and
$rod!#es no/#asting and /arnings "or the ne,t - ho!rs% 1he MEANDER s&stem a$$lies a#t!al
s!r"a#e obser)ations, radar and satellite data and WRF?BE1A o!t$!ts% 1he MEANDER ma2es its
o/n obIe#ti)e anal&sis e)er& <7 min!tes and the basi# $arameters (li2e /ind, tem$erat!re,
h!midit&, et#) are smoothed in s!#h a /a& that at the beginning o" the - ho!rs $eriod the anal&sis
and at the end the WRF?BE1A the "ore#ast are #onsidered% In this /a& instead o" e,tra$olation, the
inter$olation is a$$lied "or the basi# $arameters% Asing d&nami#all& based methods MEANDER
s&stem #al#!lates atmos$heri# re$la#ement )e#tors to des#ribe motion o" $re#i$itating (radar
obser)ed) /eather s&stems li2e th!nderstorms or strati"orm #lo!diness% Real time meas!red radar
e#hoes are mo)ed b& these motion )e#tors ma2ing !ltra short range $re#i$itation "ore#ast% +hase
o" $re#i$itation (sno/, rain, "ree0ing rain) or $ossible hail si0es o" th!nderstorms are #al#!lated b&
)erti#al #lo!d $h&si# models% 1he no/#asting s&stem iss!es /eather /arnings "or all regions o"
'!ngar&%
8%8%<%< In o$eration
(<) MEANDER s&stem: 1he $resent )ersion o" MEANDER has been in o$erati)e !sage sin#e K!l&
o" 35<5% 1he s&stem iss!es obIe#ti)e anal&sis and - ho!rs "ore#ast in e)er& <7th min!tes% Asing
$redi#ted (no/#asted) $arameters MEANDER s&stems $ro)ides s$e#ial /arnings "or /ind g!sts
(;5 2m9h? @5 2m9h), hail storms, torrential $re#i$itations and "lash "loods%
(3) (ee )er& short range abo)e (ARME)
8%8%<%3 Resear#h $er"ormed in this "ield
(<) Resear#h a#ti)it& is "o#!sing to se)ere #on)e#ti)e $henomena li2e s!$er#ells and torrential rain
and "lash "lood #ases% 1he no/#asting s&stem is $lanned to re#ogni0e and /arn "or sG!all lines,
s!$er#ells or MCC% 1he main iss!e is to #onne#t radar based linear "ore#ast /ith non?h&drostati#
n!meri#al "ore#ast%
(3) (ee )er& short range abo)e (ARME)
8%8%3 Models "or .er& (hort?range Fore#asting (&stems
!t$!ts o" ECMWF deterministi# model s!$$ort "irst g!ess and bo!ndar& #onditions "or lo#al
models WRF?AL+'A% WRF?AL+'A non?h&drostati# model $rod!#es -= ho!rs "ore#ast ( 8 times a
da&)% WRF?BE1A non?h&drostati# model !ses o!t$!ts o" WRF?AL+'A model and $rod!#es =
ho!rs "ore#ast (in e)er& ho!r) "or the no/#asting s&stem% 1he WRF?BE1A assimilates radar
re"le#ti)it& and s!r"a#e obser)ation !sing n!dging method% 1he linear $redi#tion s&stem
MEANDER $ro)ides - ho!rs no/#asting in e)er& <7 min!tes !sing WRF?BE1A o!t$!ts, radar,
satellite and s!r"a#e obser)ations%
8%8%3%< In o$eration
(<) (ee 8%8%3% abo)e%
(3) (ee )er& short range abo)e (ARME)
8%8%3%3 Resear#h $er"ormed in this "ield
(<) Resear#h a#ti)it& is "o#!sing to "ore#ast se)ere #on)e#ti)e $henomena
li2e s!$er#ells and torrential rain and "lash "lood #ases% 1he linear no/#asting s&stem is $lanned to
re#ogni0e and /arn "or sG!all lines, s!$er#ells or MCC% 1he main iss!e is to a$$roa#h the linear
"ore#ast (based on ad)e#tion) to non?h&drostati# n!meri#al "ore#ast%
(3) (ee )er& short range abo)e (ARME)
0.9 S*+/#a%#8+. ,um+r#/a% *r+.#/&#,'
1he o!t$!ts o" the n!meri#al /eather $redi#tion models !sed at the '!ngarian Meteorologi#al
(er)i#e are intensi)el& !sed "or /ide?range o" a$$li#ations li2e traIe#tor&, air G!alit& and dis$ersion
modelling%
0.9.1 A''#m#%a&#, ! '*+/#!#/ .a&a, a,a%y'#' a,. #,#&#a%#8a&#, 1<"+r+ a**%#/a5%+4
8%7%<%< In o$eration
None
8%7%<%3%Resear#h $er"ormed in this "ield
De)elo$ment o" an in$!t emission database "or the C'IMERE #hemistr&?trans$ort modell "or the
area o" B!da$est based on &earl& emission re$orting and tra""i# #o!nt data%
0.9.( S*+/#!#/ M.+%'
8%7%3%< In o$eration
FLE61RA 8%5 traIe#tor& model, FLE6+AR1 4%5 Lagrangian $arti#le dis$ersion modell, C'IMERE
#hemistr&?trans$ort model "or 38?84 air G!alit& "ore#asts o)er B!da$est, AERMD reg!lator&
modell "or #ase st!dies
8%7%3%3Resear#h $er"ormed in this "ield
De)eleo$ing the C'IMERE model "or air G!alit& "ore#asts o)er '!ngar&
0.9.- S*+/#!#/ *r.u/&' *+ra&#,a%%y a7a#%a5%+
Con#entration and de$osition "ields
0.= E>&+,.+. ra,$+ !r+/a'&' 1ERF4 (10 days to 30 days)
0.=.1 M.+%'
8%=%<%< In o$eration
1he $rod!#ts re#ei)ed "rom ECMWF are !sed in the o$erational regime%
8%=%<%3Resear#h $er"ormed in this "ield
None
0.=.( $erationall& a)ailable NW+ model and E+( ERF *r.u/&'
None
0.: L,$ ra,$+ !r+/a'&' 1LRF4 (30 days up to two years)
8%;%< In o$eration
1he $rod!#ts re#ei)ed "rom ECMWF are !sed in the o$erational regime%
8%;%3 Resear#h $er"ormed in this "ield
Resear#h on the #alibration o" seasonal "ore#asts%
0.:.( $erationall& a)ailable E+( LRF $rod!#ts
None
9. V+r#!#/a&#, ! *r$,'&#/ *r.u/&'
ECMWF and ALADIN9'A $rod!#ts are )eri"ied and #om$ared o$erationall& #om$!ting sim$le
statisti#al meas!res (bias and RM(E) !sing all the (BN+ and 1EM+ obser)ations inside the
domain o" the ALADIN9'A domain )ia the #om$rehensi)e )eri"i#ation s&stem (.I(B(: bIe#ti)e
.eri"i#ation Intera#ti)e (B(tem)% 1he a!tomati#all& generated "ore#asts are also )eri"ied and
#om$ared to the "ore#asts iss!ed b& the "ore#asters% Com$rehensi)e )eri"i#ation made at M(* is
ann!all& a)ailable on ECMWF /eb: htt$:99///%e#m/"%int9$rod!#ts9greenboo29
9.1 A,,ua% 7+r#!#/a&#, 'ummary
1B+E 1( (CRE( +ARAME1ER( A:AIN(1
1ime?t
,: time> &: s#ore
(mo)ing a)erage: <
month)
<3, 38 RM(E> BIA( 13, R'A3, N,
Wind<5($, M(L+
(BN+
1ime?t
,: time> &: s#ore
(mo)ing a)erage: <
month)
38 RM(E> BIA( '755, R'A;55,
1475
1EM+
1ime?1(
,:1ime ste$> &:
s#ore
5 ? -= RM(E> BIA( 13, R'A3, N,
Wind<5($, M(L+
(BN+
,:1hreshold> &:
s#ore
-5?5=
(38 ho!r
#!m!lated
$re#i$itation)
FreG!en#&
BIA(, +D,
FAR, C((,
'((, 1(, E1(,
ED(, (ED(,
EDI, (EDI
R (BN+
9.( R+'+ar/" *+r!rm+. #, &"#' !#+%.
(ED(, EDI, (EDI "or rare binar& e)ents> (AL> +er"orman#e (Roebber?Wilson) diagram> 1a&lor?
diagram
=. P%a,' !r &"+ !u&ur+ (next years)
=.1 D+7+%*m+,& ! &"+ GDPFS
=.1.1 MaIor #hanges e,$e#ted /ithin the ne,t &ear
1he high resol!tion (3%7 2m) NW+ model ARME is r!n o$erationall& in s$in !$ mode sin#e 35<5
"or a domain #o)ering the Car$athian?basin% A data assimilation s&stem (-D.AR "or the !$$er air
and I "or the s!r"a#e) has been im$lemented o$erationall& in Mar#h 35<-% Radar data
assimilation e,$eriments are ongoing and /e e,$e#t an o$erational im$lementation in 35<8 latest%
Also $h&si#al $arameteri0ations o" the ARME model are d!e to be de)elo$ed "or a better
$redi#tion o" lo/ #lo!d and #on)e#ti)e sit!ations% 1he lo/er resol!tion (d,L42m) ALADIN
o$erational E+( s&stem is to be e,tended /ith an ensemble data assimilation #om$onent%
=.1.( MaIor #hanges e,$e#ted /ithin the ne,t 8 &ears
1he abo)e three dire#tions "or de)elo$ment /ill remain% (ensiti)it& st!dies /ith ARME on < 2m
resol!tion are $lanned as /ell as resear#h on )er& high resol!tion E+( !sing a small si0e (7?<5
members) ARME ensemble s&stem% It is also anti#i$ated that bene"its are ta2en at e)er& $ossible
/a& "rom de)elo$ments made on the dri)ing global models (ECMWF9IF(, Meteo?
Fran#e9AR+E:E)%
=.( P%a,,+. r+'+ar/" A/&#7#&#+' #, NWP, N</a'&#,$ a,. L,$2ra,$+ Fr+/a'&#,$
=.(.1 +lanned Resear#h A#ti)ities in NW+
1he "ollo/ing resear#h a#ti)ities are $lanned #on#erning the ARME model: i) radar, :+(, and
high resol!tion satellite assimilation> ii) im$ro)ements on the #lo!d $h&si#s and t!rb!len#e
(#on)e#tion and lo/ strat!s sit!ations)> iii) )er& high resol!tion small si0e (7?<5 members) E+(
/ith the ARME model a##o!nting "or the !n#ertainties in the initial #onditions and in $h&si#al
$arameteri0ations%
=.(.( +lanned Resear#h A#ti)ities in No/#asting
(ome e""orts ha)e been made "or obIe#t oriented se)ere /eather no/#asting !sing high
$er"orman#e radar data (d!al $olari0ation and Do$$ler /ind)% ($e#ial obIe#ti)e anal&sis is $lanned
to de)elo$ "or des#ribing me0o?beta s#ale /eather $henomena%
=.(.- +lanned Resear#h A#ti)ities in Long?range Fore#asting
None
=.(.0 +lanned Resear#h A#ti)ities in ($e#iali0ed N!meri#al +redi#tions
None
:. C,'r&#um
:.1 Sy'&+m a,.;r m.+%
M(* is a member o" the ALADIN and LACE #onsortia, /hi#h de)elo$s the ALADIN, ALAR and
ARME models (these - models o/n the same d&nami#al #ore and similar data assimilation
s&stems b!t di""er a lot in $h&si#al $arametri0ations and are aimed "or di""erent s$atial s#ales)%
;%<%< In o$erations
At M(* the ALAR and ARME models are !sed in o$erations (see se#tion 8%-)
;%<%3 Resear#h $er"ormed in this "ield
(ee se#tion =%<%<%
:.( Sy'&+m ru, '/"+.u%+ a,. !r+/a'& ra,$+'
(ee se#tion 8%-%3%
:.- L#'& ! /u,&r#+' *ar&#/#*a&#,$ #, &"+ C,'r&#um
Algeria, A!stria, Belgi!m, B!lgaria, Croatia, C0e#h Re$!bli#, Fran#e, '!ngar&, Moro##o, +oland,
+ort!gal, Romania, (lo)a2ia, (lo)enia, 1!nisia, 1!r2e&
:.0 Da&a a''#m#%a&#,, 56+/&#7+ a,a%y'#' a,. #,#&#a%#8a&#,
Both the ALADIN9ALAR and ARME models !se lo#al data assimilation s&stems (the latter is
!nder de)elo$ment), namel& an !$$er air -D.AR and an I s!r"a#e assimilation s#heme (see
se#tion 8%-%< "or more details)%
:.9 O*+ra&#,a%%y a7a#%a5%+ NWP *r.u/&'
(ee se#tion 8%-%-%
:.= V+r#!#/a&#, ! *r$,'&#/ *r.u/&'
(ee se#tion 7%
:.: P%a,' !r &"+ !u&ur+
(ee se#tion =%
?. R+!+r+,/+'
cs, F., Horvth, , !reuer, !., and "u#el, F., 35<5: (ensiti)it& o" lo#al #on)e#ti)e $re#i$itation to
$arameteri0ation o" the "ield #a$a#it& and /ilting $oint soil moist!re #ontents% $d%&rs, <<8, -@?77%
cs, F.' Horvth, .' Ha&nal(a, !.' "u#el, F., 35<5: E""e#t o" soil h&dra!li# $arameters on the lo#al
#on)e#ti)e $re#i$itation )eteorolo*ische +eitschrift, <@, <8-?<7-(<<)
,damcse(, -., !.l.ni, /., 0som1s, P. and Hornyi, ,., 35<5: A$$li#ation o" the Ensemble
1rans"orm Calman Filter te#hniG!e at the '!ngarian Meteorologi#al (er)i#e: +reliminar& res!lts%
$d%&rs, <<8, 3<?-4%
!.l.ni, /., 355=: De)elo$ment o" a )ariational data assimilation s&stem "or a limited area model at
the '!ngarian Meteorologi#al (er)i#e% $d%&rs, <<5, -5@?-3;%
!.l.ni, /., 2ullmann 3. and Hornyi ,., 355@: Ase o" ECMWF lateral bo!ndar& #onditions and
s!r"a#e assimilation "or the o$erational ALADIN model in '!ngar&% -0)4F Newsletter, <<@, 3@?
-7%
0som1s P. 5s !.l.ni /., 3554: First ste$s to/ards the a$$li#ation o" the Ensemble 1rans"orm
Calman Filter te#hniG!e at the '!ngarian Meteorologi#al (er)i#e, H$"3,) Newsletter No% 78, $$
@?<@
http:66hirlam.or*6inde7.php8option9com:docman;tas(9doc:download;*id9<=>;$temid9>?
Ferenc@i, +. and $hs@, $., 355-: .alidation o" E!lerian dis$ersion model MEDIA at the '!ngarian
Meteorologi#al (er)i#e% $d%&rs, <5;, <<7?<-3%
/eresdi, $. and Horvth, %, 3555: No/#asting o" $re#i$itation t&$e% +art I: Winter +re#i$itation%
$d%&rs <?A, 38<?373%
/eresdi, $., Horvth, ., )tyus, %, 3558: No/#asting o" the $re#i$itation t&$e +art II: Fore#ast o"
th!nderstorms and hailstone si0e% $d%&rs <?B, --?8@%
H*el, -., and Hornyi, ,, 355=: 1he de)elo$ment o" a limited area ensemble $redi#tion
(LAME+() s&stem at the '!ngarian Meteorologi#al (er)i#e: sensiti)it& e,$eriments o" global
sing!lar )e#tors% $d%&rs, <<5, 33@?373%
H*el, -., =?<?: The Cuasi-operational 3,)-PD system of the Hun*arian )eteorolo*ical Dervice.
$d%&rs, <<8, <3<?<-8%
Hornyi, ,., $hs@, $., and "adn1ti, /., <@@=: AR+E:E9ALADIN: A n!meri#al /eather $redi#ition
model "or Central?E!ro$e /ith the $arti#i$ation o" the '!ngarian Meteorologi#al (er)i#e% $d%&rs,
<55, 3;;?-55%
Hornyi, ,., 2ert5s@, D., 2ullmann, 3., and "adn1ti, /., 355=: 1he AR+E:E9ALADIN mesos#ale
n!meri#al modelling s&stem and its a$$li#ation at the '!ngarian Meteorologi#al (er)i#e% $d%&rs,
<<5, 35-?33;%
Hornyi, ,, )ile, ). and D@Ecs, )%, 35<<: Latest de)elo$ments aro!nd the ALADIN o$erational
short?range ensemble $redi#tion s&stem in '!ngar&% Tellus =-A, =83?=7<%
Horvth, ,. and /eresdi I% 355<% (e)ere #on)e#ti)e storms and asso#iated $henomena in '!ngar&
Atmos$heri# Resear#h 7= $$%<3;?<8=
Horvth, % and /eresdi, $% 355-: (e)ere (torms and No/#asting in the Car$athian Basin ,tmos.
"es., =;?=4, -<@?--3
Horvth, ., /eresdi, $., 0sirma@, 2%, 355=: N!meri#al sim!lation o" a tornado $rod!#ing
th!nderstorm: A #ase st!d&. $d%&rs .ol% <58% 3;@?3@;%
$hs@, $., Fve*es, +., )ile, ). and N5meth, 0s%, 35<5: Ensemble #alibration o" ECMWFMs medi!m
range "ore#asts% $d%&rs, <<8, 3;7?34=%
$hs@ $. and Ta&ti D., =?<<: Ase o" ECMWFFs ensemble )erti#al $ro"iles at the '!ngarian
Meteorologi#al (er)i#e% -0)4F Newsletter, <3@, 37?3@%
"andriamampianina "., 355=: Im$a#t o" high resol!tion satellite obser)ations in the ALADIN?'A
model% $d%&rs, <<5, -3@?-8;%
D@intai, !., and $hs@, $., 355=: 1he d&nami#al do/ns#aling o" ECMWF E+( $rod!#ts o" ECMWF
E+( $rod!#ts /ith the ALADIN mesos#ale limited area model: +reliminar& e)ol!tion% $d%&rs, <<5,
37-?3;;%
D@5ps@1, /. and Hornyi, ,%, 35<5: .alidation o" the d&nami#all& ada$ted high?resol!tion /ind
"ore#asts "or the /ind $o/er stations in '!ngar&% $d%&rs, <<8, 7;?;4%
A$$li#ation and )eri"i#ation o" ECMWF $rod!#ts, 35<3: htt$:99///%e#m/"%int9$rod!#ts9greenboo29