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MonteCarloSimulationS

TM*

Version 1.1
Copyright 1996-2001 Barringer & Associates, Inc.,
All rights reserved, * Trademark is pending

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other spreadsheets in this file, is
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settings.

Software By:
H. Paul Barringer, P.E.
Barringer & Associates, Inc.
P.O. Box 3985
Humble, TX 77347-3985 USA
Phone: 281-852-6810
e-mail: hpaul@barringer1.com

Press This Button For

The Table Of
Contents

FAX: 281-852-3749
Website: http://www.barringer1.com

MonteCarloSimulationSTM
(Read this information from the lawyers)
Read this narrative (double click inside this box, cursor down or pull down the lower edge of this block). Do not
delete this sheet, you'll need some of this information at a later date!
This spreadsheet file is usable with ExcelTM version 5.0 and above. The simulation macros won't work in lower
revisions. Excel is a trademark of Microsoft Corporation. MonteCarloSimulationS is trademark pending by
Barringer & Associates, Inc.
Information in this software file is subject to change without notice for correction of errors and change of features.
Barringer & Associates, Inc. does not represent a commitment to notify users of any changes. This software is
furnished for demonstration purposes only. Copies of this demonstration software must acknowledge Barringer &
Associates, Inc. as the original source of the code. Copies must also include all narrative boxes with notices and
instructions.
Examples in this file are intended for training and education in the use of Monte Carlo simulations. No warranty
of accuracy, applicability, correctness of use, or throuroughness of purpose is stated or implied for this software.
As in the case of all engineering tools, you must exercise good judgment in the use of these software tools for safe
and responsible results using these Monte Carlo concepts. Use sound engineering and business judgments when
studying any simulation even using probabilitics calculations. A full set of MonteCarloSimulationS for EXCEL
5.0+ spreadsheets are available at a price of US$40.00 (including shipping & handling).
This software shows, with a few

Page 1

Table Of Contents

Monte Carlo Models Using Weibull Equations For Excel Version 5.0 Spreadsheets
If you get a message "Can't resolve circular references", just click "OK".
Monte Carlo Simulations Notes

Click

Click

Process Diagram Simulation

Generate Random Numbers

Click

Click

Air Compressor Life & Costs

Simple Series Failure Model

Click

Click

Fault Tree Analysis

Competing Series Failure Model

Click

Click

Age Of Part At Time Zero

Optimum Replacements

Click

Click

Fix Failuers On Overtime?

Replacement/Inspection

Click

Click

Plant Manager's Production Model

Maintenance Replacement Strategy

Click

Click

Weibull Facts

TBA

Click

Click

TBA

TBA

Click

Click

TBA

TBA

Click

Click

TBA

Press the button on the Banner Spreadsheet to initialize the spreadsheet calculations.

Page 2

Why Use Monte Carlo Simulations

Why Use Monte Carlo Simulations

(A little bit of Monte Carlo simulation information for orientation--see readling list at the end of this information)
Read this narrative (double click inside this box and cursor down or pull down the lower edge of this block). Then slide this sheet to one side, I.e., click on the
border, hold down the left mouse key, and drag to one side to uncover the spread sheet.
Do not delete this sheet, you may need some clues later when you build your own models!
1. Monte Carlo (MC) simulations use random numbers and math/statistical models to simulate (imitate) reality. We make assumptions about how a model
behaves (based on samples of data or engineering assumptions) to gain an understanding about how the corresponding real life system behaves.
2. Most real-world systems are too complex for analytical evaluations. Models must be studied with many simulations to estimate real-life conditions. MC
models are computer intensive and require many iterations to get a central tendency.
3. MC models help solve complicated deterministic problems (I.e., no random components) and probabilistic (stochastic) problems (I.e., contains random
components). Deterministic systems usually have one answer and perform the same way each time. Probabilistic systems have a range of answers with some
central tendency. MC models using probabilistic numbers never give the same exact results. When you re-run simulations you'll never get the same exact
answers because random numbers are used for the simulation. Look for the central tendency of the numbers, search for an unde

Page 3

Weibull Statistical Values For Non-symmetrical distributions

<--Input of variable data
<--Output of calculated results
Input these facts:
158.80
3.12
0.00
50.00%
100.00
Get these results:

<-- = Eta characteristic values

<-- = Beta slope values
<-- t0 = Location shift or threshold parameter (sometimes called the failure free interval when t0>0)
<-- p = probability of failure (see row 16 for results)--also referred to a B-%Value or L-%Value
<-- t = a life value for calculating the CDF (see row 18 for results)

49.85

<-- = Weibull standard deviation

142.06
141.20

<-- = Weibull mean

140.30
141.20
0.35
21.04%
78.96%
0.007371
0.00582

<-- Median = Weibull median (where 50% of the units will be expected to have failed)
<-- Mode = Weibull mode (requires b >1, else the mode become t 0)

<-- tp = Life at which a specified percentile of failures (from row 9) will occur (or B-life in engineering ter
<-- CV = Weibull coefficient of variation
<--CDF = % failed by time t
<--Reliability = % surviving by time t
<--Hazard function = instantaneous failure rate at time t
<--PDF = relative frequency at time t

Press the F9 key to update calculations

Generate Random Numbers

Random Numbers Are Used To

Generate Random Times To Failure
Simulation Objective: Generate random times to failure for one to six data points per set and show how the
calculations of and vary on each iteration because of randomness in the data.
Generate
Choose A Choose A Only One
Generate
Value of Value Of
Age To
Generate Two Three Age To Generate Four Generate Five Generate Six
Beta
Eta
Failure
Age To Failures
Failures
Age To Failures Age To Failures Age To Failures
3.1
18000
14,693
21,549
16,738
21,876
11,711
7,515
21,549
16,738
21,876
11,711
12,577
16,738
21,876
11,711
9,879
Change as required
21,876
11,711
11,554
11,711
14,563
11,421
"X" (age to failure time) is regressed on "Y" (the CDF) to calculate the indicies shown below:
Calculated

--

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

4.742

Calculated

--

21,548.51

16,738.18

21,876.15

11,710.79

12,250.70

Calculated R2

--

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

0.9715

Error in

--

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

-1.642

Error in

--

-3,548.51

1,261.82

-3,876.15

6,289.21

5,749.30

Min

--

21,549

16,738

21,876

11,711

7,515

Page 5

Simple Failure Model

Simple Failure Model

Simulation Objective: Show how simple systems are modeled for system failure (using least time to
failure criteria for each iteration and including suspended [unfailed] data).
Component
Beta
Eta
Simulated Failure Time '
Status
Time To Fail

1
1.8
18000

2
3.7
8000

3
2.5
12000

4
0.7
75000

28,815

4,690

9,742

13,932

Suspended

Failed

-28,815

4,690

Change As Required
0

Suspended Suspended

-9,742

-13,932

4,690

<--System Failure Time

Record Of Failures (negative values are suspensions):

Component:

1
-21,932
-14,717
4,409
-6,266
-30,393
-21,477
-7,367

2
-4,940
7,437
-7,981
5,235
-7,987
3,778
-7,351

3
-9,803
-14,767
-4,928
-14,699
-19,864
-9,168
6,237

4
1,469
-60,838
-11,127
-281,120
4,556
-185,829
-11,308

System
1,469
7,437
4,409
5,235
4,556
3,778
6,237

Page 6

Air Compressor Model

Simulation Objective: Find MTTF, repair costs, MTTR, and overall maintenance cost of a compressor.
Given:
From the Weibull library, select Weibull characteristic failures for each component.
Solve the Weibull equation for time to failure. Use a uniform distribution of random number for the CDF which will vary between 0 and 1.
Record the least time to simulated failure, replace with a new part, and resume the simulation.
Know component failures to simulate performance of the system!!!!!
Data Given For The Simulation
Find By Simulation***
Decision
Total
Weibull $ Cost Repair
Total #
Total Time
Time to
Component
Weibull
Column
Accumulated
Total Cost
simulated
eta
per
Time
Failures
To Repair
of Failures
For
Time For
Failing
beta
failure*
Simulated
Failures
(hours) failure
(hrs)
Simulation
Failures
Auto Drain
1.9
5,000
$100
1.5
3,644
0
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Reed Valves
2.3
6,000
$1,500
22.5
4,862
0
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Unloader
4
5,000
$200
3
4,533
0
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Bearings
2.5
12,000
$15,000
225
7,351
0
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Rings
2.5
10,000
$7,500
112.5
8,159
0
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Pistons
3
15,000
$10,000
150
13,479
0
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Check Valve
1.1
10,000
$500
7.5
523
1
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Motor
7
12,000
$4,000
40
11,317
0
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Vee Belts
1.9
8,000
$1,800
3
4,768
0
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

Minimum Time To Failure For Each Iteration**-->

Note: The Weibull value for motor is purposely chosen as a wrong number!

523

Note: This model has been supersceeded by MCSAMPLE.XLS

Page 7

Err:522

Err:522

Err:522

Err:522

Mean time to failure-->

Err:522 hours

Failure rate-->
Mean time to repair-->

Err:522 failures/hr
Err:522 hours

Process Diagram Simulation

Process Diagram Simulation

Simulation Objective: Find the reliability of the block diagram system to meet the business plan by simulationNo repairs allowed.

Failure Time (mo.)

Dryer
A

4.3

Dryer
B

Name Plate Capacity

Best 1 mo. actual capacity

Can We
Meet The
Business
Plan ?

Name Plate Capacity (tons/mo)

A
B
200
250
170
240

Business Plan Forecast

Each dryer has a 3 year working life and is renewed once per year.
Output Model For Each Dryer = (name plate capacity)*exp(-((t-t0)/)^

26.1

Dryer Deterioration Characteristics

Dryer
C

A
0.7

B
1

28

40

t0 (months)

60.2
Output: tons/mo
A
B

Jan
Feb
182
171
244
238
291
283
C
Total System 716
692
Annual Equipment Reliability-->
Years Of Service Simulated-->

Mar
Apr
162
155
232
226
276
270
670
651
Err:522
Err:522

Page 8

May
0
221
263
484

Jun
Jul
Aug
0
0
0
215
210
205
257
251
246
472
461
450
Annual Production Reliability Of Meeting Business Plan Forecast-->

Optimum Replacement

Simulation Objective: Find the optimum (lowest cost per unit of time) replacement interval using zero time replacement parts.
Planned
Unplanned
Replacement Replacement
See results of iterations in cells A141:C141
Cost
Cost
3
15
$10,000
$100,000
<--Change As Required
The "X" time axis is used for making timed replacements. If a part fails before the replacement interval is reached, extra costs
are charged for an "in service" failure. Otherwise the lower cost are used for an "off line" replacement in the iterations.
Beta

Eta

Replacement
Replacement
Replacement
Replacement
Replacements
madeWhen
when: 1)Failure
the part
fails Ifbefore
reaching
replacement
or 2)
when Failure
the replacement
interval
is reached.
Failure Times IfareTimes
Times
Times
WhentheFailure
Times time,
Times
When
Times Times
When
Failure Times
ForThan
a6, t = 0.75
ForThan
a7, t = 1.5
For a8,
t = 2.25
For a9,
t = 3Failure Times If For
t=
Less
Failure Times
Less
Failure Times If Less
Than
Failure Times If Less
Than
Lessa10,
Than
Simulated Time
Planned
Are Greater
Planned
Are Greater
Planned
Are Greater
Planned
Are Greater
Planned
To Failure
18 Replacement Than Planned1 Replacement Than Planned2 Replacement Than Planned2 Replacement Than Planned3 Replacement
Interval
Replacement
Interval
Replacement
Interval
Replacement
Interval
Replacement
Interval
Interval
Interval
Interval
Interval

Page 9

Replacement
Times When Failure Times
3.75
For a11,
t=
Failure Times If Less
Than
Are Greater
Planned
Than Planned4 Replacement
Replacement
Interval
Interval

R ep laceme nt In sp ectio n

Replacement/Inspections
Sim ulation Objec tive : Gi ven two comp one nts i n a syste m with di ffere nct fai lure d istribu ti on s, find w hen i nspe cti ons, PM
rep lace men ts, and b reakd own re pa irs must o ccur.
Ground r ules :Fai lure time s a re simul ated for each c ompo nen t. If the si mula te d ti me is less than
the in spectio n interva l, a fai lure h as occure d. If the time i s g reater than the i nspe cti on in te rval bu t
le ss tha n th e PM i nterval , then a n insp ection occurs. If the time i s g reater than the PM in te rval (bu t
le ss tha n 1.5 ti mes th e interva l) a PM re pla ceme nt o ccurs. If the time is gre ater th an 1.5 times the
PM interva l, a fai lure h as occurre d. For Cha nce fai lure s a nd in fa nt mo rta lity fa ilu res, se t the PM
Re pla cemen t in te rval to 200 time s the ch arac te ristics life to avoi d repl aceme nt fla gs fro m a ppe arin g
in the d ecisi on lo gic.

Part A
Eta

In spectio n
In te rval

PM R epl aceme nt
Interval

50,000

8,000

100,000,000

Failure

Inspect

Replace

156,612
23,801
23,920
88,042
115
102,968
95,569
81,062
71,929
32,868
139,381
153,218

Page 1 0

Part B

Beta
1.00
Simulate d
Time To
Action
155
Record:

Failure
Err:508
Part A Record of Actions
Inspect
Inspect
Inspect
Inspect
Failure
Inspect
Inspect
Inspect
Inspect
Inspect
Inspect
Inspect

Beta
6.00
Simula ted
Tim e To
Ac tion
11,886

13,000

5,000

PM
R epl aceme nt
Interva l
10,000

Failure

Inspect

Replace

Eta

In spectio n
Interva l

Replace
Part B Record of Actions

14,213
15,833
11,603
15,903
13,708
13,260
15,236
8,076
8,155
14,006
12,586
13,612

Replace
Failure
Replace
Failure
Replace
Replace
Failure
Inspect
Inspect
Replace
Replace
Replace

R ep laceme nt In sp ectio n

Page 1 1

R ep laceme nt In sp ectio n

Page 1 2

Ag e Of Part At Time Zero

Simulation
Obje ctive:
If fi rst fail ure
i s l ess th an
PM
re pla ceme nt
a ge, repl ace
the b roke n
p art. If
co mpon en t
l ife excee ds
re pla ceme nt
Component
Data
i nterval
the n
re pla ce th e
u nfai led
Eta
p art.Beta
Find the
optim
um
1.9
3000
r epla ce me
nt inter val.

Interval For
PM Replacement
3000

Earl y Fail ure

Co st (Lo st
Rep lace ment
pro ductio n +
Co st
Re pla cemen t)
$ 10,000.00 $ 2,500.00

N umbe r Of
Ea rly
Fai lure s
646

N umbe r Of
Ea rly Fa ilu re Replacement Cost
Su ccessful
Co st
Rep lace men ts
354

$ 6,460,000

Change the replacement interval to minimize the cost/hour

Sim ulate d
Hour s
Fa iled Before
Age To
Acc um ulate d
Failur e PM Inte rva l? On Component
0 = N o,
1
Star ting At
Until Fa ilure Or
= Yes
Time Zer o
Replace me nt
2861.9
2980.6
2148.3
1251.4
2962.3
2293.2
3984.6
2679.1
4395.7

1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0

2861.91
2980.59
2148.26
1251.44
2962.30
2293.18
3000.00
2679.11
3000.00

3134.1
1490.4
3865.9
2174.8

0
1
0
1

3000.00
1490.39
3000.00
2174.85

1896.1
2647.6
2006.7
7255.2

1
1
1
0

1896.06
2647.58
2006.75
3000.00

824.3
1937.6
2772.3
1970.4

1
1
1
1

824.34
1937.62
2772.31
1970.38

1120.9
4043.3
1106.7
3348.0

1
0
1
0

1120.90
3000.00
1106.69
3000.00

1256.0
454.7
2484.6
2359.8

1
1
1
1

1256.02
454.71
2484.64
2359.79

3891.9
2866.3
1661.0
918.2

0
1
1
1

3000.00
2866.34
1660.98
918.21

214.7
3436.3
2995.3
3233.1

1
0
1
0

214.73
3000.00
2995.29
3000.00

2422.7
2776.7
2135.1
3989.1
622.3
2049.0
2899.2
1804.9
2086.8
1357.2
3335.9
4695.5
2024.6
2681.8
4597.3
2179.7
1876.2
3780.2
3609.4
1458.9
2821.1

1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
1

2422.66
2776.74
2135.09
3000.00
622.30
2048.96
2899.21
1804.85
2086.84
1357.23
3000.00
3000.00
2024.57
2681.81
3000.00
2179.70
1876.21
3000.00
3000.00
1458.87
2821.07

413.1
2845.0
1240.3
408.7

1
1
1
1

413.15
2845.03
1240.31
408.73

1240.7
3752.5
4174.1
3134.5

1
0
0
0

1240.72
3000.00
3000.00
3000.00

4969.8
3930.4
744.3
6324.6

0
0
1
0

3000.00
3000.00
744.32
3000.00

3704.6
3572.4
1654.2
3117.7

0
0
1
0

3000.00
3000.00
1654.22
3000.00

2561.9

2561.86

2222.2
4350.2
4140.0
4716.5

1
0
0
0

2222.16
3000.00
3000.00
3000.00

1207.0
540.2
1599.9
3459.2

1
1
1
0

1207.04
540.22
1599.93
3000.00

1974.3
1173.6
1012.7
3485.0

1
1
1
0

1974.29
1173.57
1012.66
3000.00

981.0
622.8
2112.3
1850.4

1
1
1
1

980.96
622.78
2112.32
1850.39

495.7
1805.4
1195.2
3864.6

1
1
1
0

495.67
1805.39
1195.19
3000.00

3404.8
2476.6
2569.7

0
1
1

3000.00
2476.55
2569.71

2893.2
3629.5
2766.4
2944.8

1
0
1
1

2893.21
3000.00
2766.40
2944.80

1199.8
1279.2
4892.7
3126.9

1
1
0
0

1199.82
1279.16
3000.00
3000.00

1011.8
5322.0
2502.8
2809.7

1
0
1
1

1011.76
3000.00
2502.75
2809.65

1772.9
1214.8
2758.0
4451.3

1
1
1
0

1772.86
1214.82
2758.03
3000.00

2092.4
6889.5

1
0

2092.40
3000.00

848.8
2168.8

1
1

848.78
2168.76

2966.9
7696.4

1
0

2966.92
3000.00

713.1
3716.2

1
0

713.08
3000.00

447.6
890.4

1
1

447.60
890.37

1870.3
2653.3
2143.6
3678.1

1
1
1
0

1870.27
2653.32
2143.63
3000.00

2604.6
3357.8
2135.0
3286.4

1
0
1
0

2604.56
3000.00
2135.03
3000.00

1999.2
2080.9
6039.7
6432.1

1
1
0
0

1999.23
2080.87
3000.00
3000.00

3077.2
1564.1
507.0
3432.3

0
1
1
0

3000.00
1564.14
506.96
3000.00

5499.0
1369.0
831.0
1833.6

0
1
1
1

3000.00
1368.97
831.03
1833.61

4228.4
1221.0
1420.4

0
1
1

3000.00
1221.03
1420.42

3899.4
5396.5
1575.4
1263.5

0
0
1
1

3000.00
3000.00
1575.38
1263.47

4504.6
2232.3
2800.1
2945.7

0
1
1
1

3000.00
2232.30
2800.07
2945.69

5554.1
2112.5
4076.3
5581.0

0
1
0
0

3000.00
2112.54
3000.00
3000.00

583.3
3056.3
2703.3
479.6

1
0
1
1

583.33
3000.00
2703.29
479.55

6816.5
5453.0

0
0

3000.00
3000.00

3280.7
1374.4

0
1

3000.00
1374.38

760.1
2546.7

1
1

760.07
2546.66

2655.0
643.3

Page 1 3

1
1

2654.98
643.32

4236.2
1325.3

0
1

3000.00
1325.29

2566.8
4210.6
2134.8
2640.9

1
0
1
1

2566.76
3000.00
2134.77
2640.87

1785.3
993.3
1689.1
1308.0

1
1
1
1

1785.30
993.26
1689.13
1307.95

3322.7
2061.0
3728.6
2474.3

0
1
0
1

3000.00
2060.98
3000.00
2474.33

3547.7
1520.7
530.9
3577.9

0
1
1
0

3000.00
1520.74
530.90
3000.00

2776.2
728.2
1832.6

1
1
1

2776.23
728.20
1832.56

958.7
4398.6
4022.2
3411.1

1
0
0
0

958.74
3000.00
3000.00
3000.00

2257.1
1748.5
2567.4
782.6

1
1
1
1

2257.06
1748.52
2567.42
782.61

1662.5
1088.8
656.4
2901.7

1
1
1
1

1662.50
1088.81
656.43
2901.68

885.2
2098.2
1997.0
2588.4

1
1
1
1

885.17
2098.17
1997.00
2588.38

537.3
2427.5
2393.0
6039.3

1
1
1
0

537.35
2427.48
2392.99
3000.00

1235.9
3069.5

1
0

1235.88
3000.00

696.1
2546.9

1
1

696.05
2546.86

2140.9
3981.7

1
0

2140.86
3000.00

4948.4
1681.3

0
1

3000.00
1681.31

2458.1
1653.6

1
1

2458.15
1653.58

5638.6
2637.0
2706.4
3179.3

0
1
1
0

3000.00
2637.01
2706.44
3000.00

5789.4
2164.3
2815.1
1814.3

0
1
1
1

3000.00
2164.32
2815.10
1814.27

3760.8
2772.6
1575.2
4317.9

0
1
1
0

3000.00
2772.64
1575.20
3000.00

1851.8
1203.6
5043.7
3264.9

1
1
0
0

1851.84
1203.63
3000.00
3000.00

4951.0
542.5
3332.3

0
1
0

3000.00
542.48
3000.00

459.2
2724.7
1567.3
1253.5

1
1
1
1

459.22
2724.74
1567.33
1253.50

562.5
3030.0
2707.4
1455.0

1
0
1
1

562.45
3000.00
2707.35
1455.03

5783.6
228.5
2374.8
997.4

0
1
1
1

3000.00
228.53
2374.76
997.40

5010.5
4058.2
397.0
1174.2

0
0
1
1

3000.00
3000.00
396.97
1174.17

505.8
4902.0

1
0

505.81
3000.00

971.7
3682.4

1
0

971.68
3000.00

3649.1
3724.0

0
0

3000.00
3000.00

2680.0
4170.7

1
0

2679.96
3000.00

1007.1
740.7

1
1

1007.15
740.74

971.0
1829.8
4063.2
3328.3

1
1
0
0

971.02
1829.78
3000.00
3000.00

1847.9
486.9
2687.2
980.6

1
1
1
1

1847.89
486.93
2687.19
980.57

2397.0
2618.7
3935.0
5911.4

1
1
0
0

2397.04
2618.66
3000.00
3000.00

5415.5
2393.1
2360.2
2024.8

0
1
1
1

3000.00
2393.14
2360.16
2024.76

3016.9
2626.3

0
1

3000.00
2626.29

885,000.00

Total
C os t/hour

Total Cost
$

7,345,000

3.34

Ag e Of Part At Time Zero

4124.2

3000.00

1174.6
2410.2
1755.1
2750.8

1
1
1
1

1174.59
2410.18
1755.06
2750.85

4784.1
2958.6
411.5
2362.3

0
1
1
1

3000.00
2958.60
411.53
2362.34

507.3
1911.5
516.4
1457.6

1
1
1
1

507.26
1911.51
516.36
1457.64

1307.5
3187.1
2852.0
4395.8
2340.9
2958.6
1807.3
5352.4
4177.7
1642.5
1100.2
1566.6
1985.4
537.8
1766.4
2863.3
1949.3
932.4
4394.2
3576.2
8717.7

1
0
1
0
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0

1307.48
3000.00
2852.04
3000.00
2340.90
2958.63
1807.35
3000.00
3000.00
1642.46
1100.22
1566.57
1985.44
537.84
1766.45
2863.31
1949.34
932.44
3000.00
3000.00
3000.00

1298.1
4435.3
4991.5
2931.1

1
0
0
1

1298.14
3000.00
3000.00
2931.14

2017.9
1171.3
3561.7
5096.7

1
1
0
0

2017.86
1171.34
3000.00
3000.00

2207.2
2597.2
3050.4
5124.0

1
1
0
0

2207.16
2597.21
3000.00
3000.00

2267.9
4280.4
4117.2
3710.7

1
0
0
0

2267.90
3000.00
3000.00
3000.00

1283.6
2677.1
4218.3
1979.0

1
1
0
1

1283.60
2677.14
3000.00
1979.04

1997.9
2698.4
1500.1
757.5

1
1
1
1

1997.86
2698.42
1500.14
757.54

1377.8
2229.9
1812.2
3713.2

1
1
1
0

1377.81
2229.85
1812.17
3000.00

2390.2
1595.4
1188.8
2978.2
1164.9
2643.2
4591.5
2238.0
3675.9
1901.7
2669.1
1378.8
1545.8
1796.8
1781.0
2487.8
2598.6
3114.1
3083.7
1518.4
4232.3

1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
0

2390.22
1595.43
1188.84
2978.18
1164.89
2643.20
3000.00
2238.04
3000.00
1901.72
2669.07
1378.83
1545.83
1796.82
1780.96
2487.78
2598.55
3000.00
3000.00
1518.42
3000.00

4053.2
3928.1
835.3
3577.5

0
0
1
0

3000.00
3000.00
835.28
3000.00

2454.1
581.6
3655.2
4821.6

1
1
0
0

2454.06
581.58
3000.00
3000.00

1329.6

1329.59

1
0

1623.40
3000.00

0
1

3000.00
1970.95

3350.3
1329.2

0
1

3000.00
1329.24

253.1
3876.7

1
0

253.11
3000.00

3368.4
2860.6
6279.8
3553.7

0
1
0
0

3000.00
2860.58
3000.00
3000.00

1592.7
5044.7
1107.1
940.4

1
0
1
1

1592.73
3000.00
1107.05
940.36

1875.5
1507.6
2480.9
5053.3

1
1
1
0

1875.52
1507.57
2480.95
3000.00

6066.5
5302.5
2315.2
4605.6

0
0
1
0

3000.00
3000.00
2315.22
3000.00

3435.9
1220.7
4657.4

0
1
0

3000.00
1220.70
3000.00

3300.6
3089.4
4342.9
4591.2

0
0
0
0

3000.00
3000.00
3000.00
3000.00

3392.4
1014.2
2909.5
3056.2

0
1
1
0

3000.00
1014.15
2909.53
3000.00

1825.5
1375.4
2152.7
1825.0

1
1
1
1

1825.48
1375.36
2152.73
1824.99

1978.2
4934.4
793.1
5631.7

1
0
1
0

1978.17
3000.00
793.09
3000.00

1436.1
3025.2
3927.3
1578.0

1
0
0
1

1436.09
3000.00
3000.00
1578.04

2803.1
320.7

1
1

2803.07
320.69

2935.9
7342.5

1
0

2935.94
3000.00

5373.7
5623.5

0
0

3000.00
3000.00

1488.4
1218.0

1
1

1488.38
1217.99

3802.7
3806.5

0
0

3000.00
3000.00

1394.4
1222.6
2287.1
2581.8

1
1
1
1

1394.40
1222.64
2287.11
2581.76

2259.1
1112.5
1307.4
4802.2

1
1
1
0

2259.06
1112.50
1307.45
3000.00

1564.5
1603.3
2307.0
3343.5

1
1
1
0

1564.52
1603.27
2306.96
3000.00

474.4
1968.1
2527.2
1028.7

1
1
1
1

474.44
1968.07
2527.16
1028.75

3099.0
1314.4
1332.9

0
1
1

3000.00
1314.42
1332.86

800.6
3032.8
5864.8
1849.5

1
0
0
1

800.61
3000.00
3000.00
1849.51

4507.6
1841.5
1547.5
2862.8

0
1
1
1

3000.00
1841.50
1547.52
2862.78

2840.5
1529.1
3028.7
2315.7

1
1
0
1

2840.48
1529.08
3000.00
2315.68

1900.5
2999.5
3357.2
223.4

1
1
0
1

1900.48
2999.53
3000.00
223.35

2807.3
681.6

1
1

2807.32
681.62

1637.0
3057.6

1
0

1636.97
3000.00

3601.4
1785.7

0
1

3000.00
1785.74

3102.0
4249.3

0
0

3000.00
3000.00

1410.3
3302.1

1
0

1410.26
3000.00

1501.4
3560.1

1
0

1501.38
3000.00

3253.5
1296.2

0
1

3000.00
1296.25

2678.9
446.2
2009.8
369.4

1
1
1
1

2678.92
446.23
2009.79
369.35

2532.0
5344.6
1807.4
1546.8

1
0
1
1

2531.97
3000.00
1807.41
1546.83

5351.5
1879.5
2101.9
4327.6

0
1
1
0

3000.00
1879.47
2101.87
3000.00

1234.1
4367.8
2694.5
1326.9

1
0
1
1

1234.13
3000.00
2694.48
1326.92

557.8
1405.6
2059.0

1
1
1

557.84
1405.60
2059.04

2170.9
1979.7
3238.0
4072.9

1
1
0
0

2170.94
1979.72
3000.00
3000.00

2096.0
474.6
294.5
3817.5

1
1
1
0

2095.97
474.62
294.51
3000.00

4240.4
2970.8
4291.2
1670.1

0
1
0
1

3000.00
2970.83
3000.00
1670.12

2501.1
5097.5
4204.3
1705.3

1
0
0
1

2501.06
3000.00
3000.00
1705.33

3017.7
5040.0

0
0

3000.00
3000.00

3319.3
3194.9

0
0

3000.00
3000.00

2703.4
965.5

1
1

2703.39
965.45

840.6
4580.0

1
0

840.64
3000.00

3742.5
4385.1

0
0

3000.00
3000.00

2755.5
2213.6
4607.0
2710.0

1
1
0
1

2755.50
2213.58
3000.00
2709.96

2551.6
2890.2
1286.5
2676.3

1
1
1
1

2551.64
2890.16
1286.54
2676.29

2854.1
3017.8
2905.4
1408.9

1
0
1
1

2854.14
3000.00
2905.41
1408.90

782.5
1464.0
5882.0
3184.3

1
1
0
0

782.46
1464.00
3000.00
3000.00

3831.7
1772.3
2080.6
3213.7

0
1
1
0

3000.00
1772.27
2080.57
3000.00

2072.2
2587.8
4484.8

1
1
0

2072.23
2587.85
3000.00

1336.4
3263.4
2368.8
1542.8

1
0
1
1

1336.36
3000.00
2368.84
1542.78

2982.7
4705.8
2336.7
3120.5

1
0
1
0

2982.71
3000.00
2336.75
3000.00

3301.7
2145.3
1439.1
148.8

0
1
1
1

3000.00
2145.31
1439.15
148.80

494.0
3164.3
3950.8
1814.3

1
0
0
1

494.04
3000.00
3000.00
1814.31

2334.7
2498.6

Page 1 4

1623.4
5234.5
3978.8
1970.9

1
1

2334.72
2498.58

436.9
1807.8

1
1

436.87
1807.80

3114.0
2633.6

0
1

3000.00
2633.57

1779.2
5486.4

1
0

1779.15
3000.00

1848.8
4872.2

1
0

1848.80
3000.00

1771.9
1587.5
2082.6
1310.2

1
1
1
1

1771.87
1587.51
2082.57
1310.21

1484.0
5341.2
4437.7
4198.8

1
0
0
0

1484.01
3000.00
3000.00
3000.00

3684.9
1231.4

0
1

3000.00
1231.36

Ag e Of Part At Time Zero

2953.7

2953.67

1852.3
1340.0
1444.9
1728.0

1
1
1
1

1852.27
1340.03
1444.91
1728.01

1587.1
759.6
1822.5
3686.4

1
1
1
0

1587.14
759.64
1822.54
3000.00

3860.2
577.0
3708.1
2574.3

0
1
0
1

3000.00
577.00
3000.00
2574.33

1900.1
2400.2
2426.1
4426.8
3170.2
4153.5
2092.0
2299.5
327.6
2129.1
2320.1
3289.7
2516.9
928.6
4297.3
2599.1
3815.1
3665.9
3992.3
3704.4
1916.3

1
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
1

1900.09
2400.25
2426.07
3000.00
3000.00
3000.00
2092.02
2299.47
327.63
2129.07
2320.11
3000.00
2516.86
928.61
3000.00
2599.11
3000.00
3000.00
3000.00
3000.00
1916.29

609.7
2066.1
1968.1
2632.2

1
1
1
1

609.71
2066.08
1968.13
2632.23

2719.3
212.9
1444.5
1768.8

1
1
1
1

2719.33
212.89
1444.53
1768.76

1308.7
3566.2
2000.6
4237.6

1
0
1
0

1308.75
3000.00
2000.62
3000.00

3573.3
3377.8
2607.8
2112.5

0
0
1
1

3000.00
3000.00
2607.80
2112.46

2472.1
414.2
518.3
2330.4

1
1
1
1

2472.07
414.18
518.27
2330.42

2233.4
1498.4
2724.8
3521.8

1
1
1
0

2233.41
1498.36
2724.81
3000.00

4336.7
6951.2
1144.6
840.2

0
0
1
1

3000.00
3000.00
1144.64
840.21

7166.3
6267.1
2318.1
2656.2
6933.3
275.7
3139.0
3132.5
3934.7
1251.3
2893.7
1613.5
3955.1
4843.6
2264.9
3765.1
1775.8
1648.7
2048.9
1751.4
2995.5

0
0
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
1

3000.00
3000.00
2318.09
2656.23
3000.00
275.72
3000.00
3000.00
3000.00
1251.27
2893.74
1613.53
3000.00
3000.00
2264.91
3000.00
1775.83
1648.75
2048.91
1751.41
2995.53

2477.2
4182.7
1267.2
2879.5

1
0
1
1

2477.16
3000.00
1267.19
2879.50

1064.4
796.2
1863.4
1065.6

1
1
1
1

1064.37
796.23
1863.45
1065.59

1156.6

1156.65

1
1

789.12
1014.02

1
0

1720.91
3000.00

4195.3
1156.1

0
1

3000.00
1156.11

5619.4
2408.1

0
1

3000.00
2408.14

4679.7
1993.5
2784.1
3049.9

0
1
1
0

3000.00
1993.54
2784.07
3000.00

2982.1
1505.8
1525.0
2908.1

1
1
1
1

2982.12
1505.84
1525.02
2908.06

3985.5
4829.7
896.9
4399.5

0
0
1
0

3000.00
3000.00
896.92
3000.00

1260.0
1198.3
3320.2
675.4

1
1
0
1

1260.05
1198.30
3000.00
675.39

508.4
6345.1
1715.7

1
0
1

508.38
3000.00
1715.73

1446.9
3471.6
401.7
1062.3

1
0
1
1

1446.88
3000.00
401.70
1062.31

3638.4
2548.0
650.8
2233.2

0
1
1
1

3000.00
2548.04
650.84
2233.21

782.0
5231.0
4017.2
3076.6

1
0
0
0

782.02
3000.00
3000.00
3000.00

3374.8
2954.5
4086.8
1033.7

0
1
0
1

3000.00
2954.48
3000.00
1033.65

1337.5
525.2
1905.6
1788.5

1
1
1
1

1337.54
525.19
1905.58
1788.47

5093.5
2120.3

0
1

3000.00
2120.27

4861.2
1135.6

0
1

3000.00
1135.64

3310.7
860.7

0
1

3000.00
860.75

7964.1
3618.0

0
0

3000.00
3000.00

4133.5
192.8

0
1

3000.00
192.83

3980.6
1127.2
2516.4
4205.7

0
1
1
0

3000.00
1127.24
2516.43
3000.00

1953.0
1667.9
2134.4
5657.5

1
1
1
0

1953.00
1667.89
2134.40
3000.00

1374.1
3258.9
1024.3
3293.0

1
0
1
0

1374.11
3000.00
1024.32
3000.00

1068.6
1396.8
2954.6
6882.8

1
1
1
0

1068.61
1396.80
2954.64
3000.00

3000.5
1338.7
1172.1

0
1
1

3000.00
1338.74
1172.11

2941.0
1604.4
2875.3
3681.4

1
1
1
0

2940.96
1604.41
2875.32
3000.00

1792.0
2176.2
2390.3
2059.4

1
1
1
1

1791.99
2176.18
2390.32
2059.35

5283.4
1530.7
4445.8
3341.6

0
1
0
0

3000.00
1530.70
3000.00
3000.00

1376.5
1046.1
148.1
1727.9

1
1
1
1

1376.54
1046.15
148.14
1727.89

1587.7
409.2

1
1

1587.71
409.21

1502.2
2529.4

1
1

1502.23
2529.41

1385.4
1092.1

1
1

1385.35
1092.09

1597.0
1939.4

1
1

1597.01
1939.45

2436.5
2954.7

1
1

2436.52
2954.74

1620.5
1214.1

1
1

1620.47
1214.10

2933.3
839.8

1
1

2933.29
839.75

1691.7
1798.3
4209.0
3882.5

1
1
0
0

1691.70
1798.27
3000.00
3000.00

4734.6
1313.9
5123.2
1844.4

0
1
0
1

3000.00
1313.88
3000.00
1844.39

5333.4
1124.4
3522.6
2526.5

0
1
0
1

3000.00
1124.43
3000.00
2526.47

1889.2
1357.9
3356.3
1369.3

1
1
0
1

1889.25
1357.87
3000.00
1369.32

4740.6
4111.8
3728.7

0
0
0

3000.00
3000.00
3000.00

3476.3
2483.3
3705.2
1594.7

0
1
0
1

3000.00
2483.32
3000.00
1594.70

4171.2
1550.9
790.6
2529.3

0
1
1
1

3000.00
1550.86
790.57
2529.32

1937.8
2097.3
2423.3
1237.9

1
1
1
1

1937.83
2097.35
2423.34
1237.86

2116.4
4780.2
2315.6
3401.5

1
0
1
0

2116.35
3000.00
2315.64
3000.00

3423.6
2129.2

0
1

3000.00
2129.15

1277.0
6011.4

1
0

1277.00
3000.00

2616.4
908.9

1
1

2616.37
908.87

848.2
2679.3

1
1

848.18
2679.31

2296.7
3052.3

1
0

2296.66
3000.00

1880.6
2338.6
2816.9
2561.5

1
1
1
1

1880.56
2338.56
2816.91
2561.54

3240.4
849.5
1845.2
2771.4

0
1
1
1

3000.00
849.49
1845.16
2771.36

2400.6
3234.3
5226.5
450.0

1
0
0
1

2400.62
3000.00
3000.00
450.01

1662.6
4549.2
2925.4
3919.0

1
0
1
0

1662.62
3000.00
2925.43
3000.00

4663.6
1938.1
1877.5
4435.9

0
1
1
0

3000.00
1938.08
1877.51
3000.00

2348.9
3493.5
5319.0

1
0
0

2348.89
3000.00
3000.00

2731.5
2895.3
1253.6
1034.8

1
1
1
1

2731.45
2895.33
1253.62
1034.77

4772.1
2109.1
1158.7
3096.8

0
1
1
0

3000.00
2109.05
1158.71
3000.00

1841.7
4478.5
1844.0
3888.2

1
0
1
0

1841.67
3000.00
1844.05
3000.00

4846.7
1573.2
1962.0
1696.9

0
1
1
1

3000.00
1573.21
1962.03
1696.90

292.4
1483.7

Page 1 5

789.1
1014.0
1720.9
3620.2

1
1

292.41
1483.71

2020.2
3605.9

1
0

2020.21
3000.00

177.5
5061.1

1
0

177.49
3000.00

2147.9
3199.9

1
0

2147.94
3000.00

3509.6
1941.3

0
1

3000.00
1941.26

745.6
1019.3
2852.7
2089.1

1
1
1
1

745.59
1019.26
2852.71
2089.12

2784.1
4893.4
911.9
2657.7

1
0
1
1

2784.09
3000.00
911.92
2657.74

1918.7
3285.6

1
0

1918.66
3000.00

PM Interval
0
0

Ag e Of Part At Time Zero

4422.2
2430.0
1503.3
1725.7

0
1
1
1

3000.00
2430.01
1503.33
1725.67

3917.9
3816.0
1750.0
4131.9

0
0
1
0

3000.00
3000.00
1749.96
3000.00

812.2
1323.9
2835.9
3433.1

1
1
1
0

812.23
1323.85
2835.85
3000.00

5532.5
3563.4
3851.5
1289.9

0
0
0
1

3000.00
3000.00
3000.00
1289.94

1214.2
3069.1

1
0

1214.23
3000.00

741.3
1528.3

1
1

741.31
1528.25

4931.7
2017.0

0
1

3000.00
2017.01

2465.8
2202.6

Page 1 6

1
1

2465.83
2202.55

418.6
3447.2

1
0

418.62
3000.00

5319.1
369.3
4126.5
1325.5

0
1
0
1

3000.00
369.27
3000.00
1325.48

4191.1
5168.7
3312.8
4095.4

0
0
0
0

3000.00
3000.00
3000.00
3000.00

3431.1
2564.7
2267.8
1115.0

0
1
1
1

3000.00
2564.75
2267.79
1115.04

4019.6
2655.9
2364.9
3208.9

0
1
1
0

3000.00
2655.89
2364.94
3000.00

3504.0
2401.1
2724.4

0
1
1

3000.00
2401.09
2724.41

1170.5
2546.9
485.3
1648.2

1
1
1
1

1170.49
2546.85
485.32
1648.20

1764.9
3824.3
740.0
1027.1

1
0
1
1

1764.94
3000.00
740.04
1027.14

747.1
4058.0
4200.7
3972.5

1
0
0
0

747.06
3000.00
3000.00
3000.00

1297.5
2275.5
1401.7
1952.6

1
1
1
1

1297.51
2275.54
1401.65
1952.57

2153.9
4296.8
1852.3
1323.2

1
0
1
1

2153.94
3000.00
1852.32
1323.15

4647.3
4297.6

0
0

3000.00
3000.00

1662.5
477.4

1
1

1662.47
477.42

1115.6
2930.4

1
1

1115.59
2930.42

1016.7
2629.1

1
1

1016.67
2629.12

2609.4
3635.9

1
0

2609.42
3000.00

2628.0
3709.6
5408.9
2675.2

1
0
0
1

2628.03
3000.00
3000.00
2675.16

5224.4
3902.8
4026.0
4296.8

0
0
0
0

3000.00
3000.00
3000.00
3000.00

1617.0
4516.1
3413.8
1389.6

1
0
0
1

1616.96
3000.00
3000.00
1389.56

3174.4
1244.8
3269.5
2296.7

0
1
0
1

3000.00
1244.77
3000.00
2296.66

2688.4
3787.8
1992.3

1
0
1

2688.41
3000.00
1992.35

2674.9
855.4
4949.4
3228.8

1
1
0
0

2674.94
855.38
3000.00
3000.00

2182.5
444.6
2256.2
2320.7

1
1
1
1

1283.5
2942.7
2750.1
3611.3

1
1
1
0

3203.5
2203.6
4793.6
2284.2

0
1
0
1

3000.00
2203.59
3000.00
2284.23

1000

646

2197148.12

2182.54
444.56
2256.19
2320.67
1283.48
2942.74
2750.14
3000.00

FTA

Fault Tree
Analysis
Failure Item

Chance For
Failure

Random #

Item Fails
0 = Failure
1=
Success

Subassy
Fails
0=Failure
1=Success

1
2
3
4
5

0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6

0.7372895
0.2039265
0.8315803
0.3321666
0.5757187

1
0
1
0
0

Err:522

Cum System
Failures-->

Err:522

Cum System
Success ->

Reliability Block Diagram

(Success Diagram)

Assembly
Fails
0=Failure
1=Success

Top Level
Simulated
Theoretical
Fails
Chance For Chance For
0=Failure
Failure
Failure
1=Success

1
1

0
0

Cum
Iterations
-->

Err:522

Fault Tree Diagram

(Failure Diagram)

Err:522
% error-->

0.6048
Err:522

Incident
RR=1-(0.2)*(0.2)=0.96

RL=1-(0.2)*(0.2)=0.96

OR

R1

R2

R3

R4

F5 =(0.2)

AND

F1
if
R1=R2=R3=R4=R5=0.8
Rs = 0.8*{1-(0.04)*(0.04)}=0.79872

F AND=(0.04)*(0.04)
=0.0016

AND

F5

FL =(0.2)*(0.2)
=0.04

R5

FOR=0.2 +0.0016
-(0.2)*(0.0016)
= 0.20128

AND

F2 F3

F R=(0.2)*(0.2)
=0.04

F4

if F1=F2=F3=F4=F5=0.2
Fs = 0.20128

Fault Tree Analysis

(A little bit of simulation information for orientation)
Read this narrative (double click inside this box and cursor down, or pull down the lower edge of this
block). Then slide this sheet to one side, I.e., click on the border, hold down the left mouse key, and
drag to one side to uncover the spread sheet.
Do not delete this sheet, you may need some clues later when you build your own models!
This model shows a small series/parallel block diagram system with elements R1, R2, R3, R4, and R5
(which you can change for your evaluation). The same system is shown in fault tree logic as F1, F2,
F3, F4, and F5.
Reliability block diagrams are success oriented.
For a series system:
If Ra=0.9 and Rb=0.8 are reliability values in series, then the system reliability is Ra*Rb =
0.8*0.9 = 0.72 or a 72% chance for success.
For a parallel system:
If Ra=0.9 and Rb=0.8 are reliability values in parallel, then the system reliability is 1-(1-Ra) *
(1-Rb) = 1 - (1-0.8) * (1-0.9) = 0.98 or a 98% chance for success.
Fault tree diagrams are failure oriented (as described by the lack of reliability).
For things in series described by an OR gate:
If URa=0.1 and URb=0.2 are unreliabilities in series, the fault tree calculation is URa+URb(Ura*Urb) = 0.1+0.2-0.1*0.2 = 0.18 or a 18% chance for failure which is the complement of the value
obtained from the series reliability block diagram system.
For things in parallel described by an AND gate:
If URa=0.1 and URb=0.2 are unreliabilities in parallel, the fault tree calculation is Ura*Urb =
0.1*0.

Page 17

Plant Managers Production Model

Plant Manager's Production Model Based On The Business Plan Goals And Last Years Production

Simulation Objective: From last years Weibull model of production and this years business plan, what are the odds the Plant Manger will meet the
business plan goal and thus get his bonus.
Hint: Use Last Year's Daily Plan Output and WinSMITH Weibull TM software to find a Weibull model of daily plant output
Beta
12

Model Of Daily Plant Output From WeibullSMITH

Eta
287,050
<--Use history to make this model for simulation

Annual Business Plan Forecast

Change as required--> Yearly Output
100,000,000
Monthly Output
8,333,333
Seven Day Output
1,923,077
Daily Output
273,973
Number of iterations (same as # of years operation)-->

Production vs Goal
From Iterations
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

<--Chance the plant manger makes his bonus?

(Based on 365 random draws of daily production
each iteration.)
Err:522
Err:522

Barringer's Business Law: If the Plant Manager can't meet his goals, then you've got to make a change to get a change or else everyone
suffers!!

Page 18

Fix Failures On Overtime

Fix Failures On Overtime?

Simulation Objective: Will surviving redundant equipment fail before the first failure is restored and will the use of overtime to reduce the risk of out of s
for both units ?
Change as required
# Iterations
No Overtime
A

Usual Repair Costs$=

Extra Overtime Cost$=
Normal Repair Time=
Time Saved By Overtime=
Loss If Both Fail $=

Usual Repair Costs$=

Extra Overtime Cost$=
Normal Repair Time=
Time Saved By Overtime=

1.2
16000
$2,000.00
$500.00
8
2
$500,000.00

Err:522
System Outage Due To A=
System Outage Due To B=
Overall System Results=
Maintenance Costs=
Total System Results=

Unreliability
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

Costs wo/OT
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

1.2
500
$2,000.00
$500.00
8
1

Risks cost (unreliability * sytem outage cost)=

Risks cost with Over Time (unreliability * sytem outage cost)=
Did the extra cost of overtime save money in the long run?

Page 19

Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

Co mpetin g Fa ilu re Mode Mo del

Competing Failure Mode Model

Simula tion Obje ctive: Show h ow a comp etin g fa ilu re mode s a lters syste m fa ilu re ti mes.

Competeting Failure Modes Model Of Components:

Component
Beta
Eta
Weibul l Tim e To
Si mulated Fail ure

1a
1.8

1b
1

18000

50000

10,017

60,017

1a

1b

Pacing Failure Times

Component:

1c
0.4

1d
6

100000

70000

759

52,636

759

2
3.7

2.5

0.7

17000

25000

16,868

16,526

6,216

16,868

16,526

6,216

14000

Failed

Status
Min. Fail Time

759
Record Of Failures (suspensions excluded):
1c
1d
2
3

4
234
39

8,543
186
1
8,539
2,054
13,046
12,313

Page 2 0

Co mpetin g Fa ilu re Mode Mo del

Page 2 1

Maint. Replace Strategy

Objective: Find the correct RCM repair strategy given the failure mode details
Err:522
Err:522
Fix When
Optimum
Maintenance Strategy Used-->
Broken
Replacement
Best Strategy
Best Strategy
Beta (0.5 < < 10)-->
Eta-->

1.1
100

Simulated Time To Failure-->

300

<--Beta tells about failure mode

<--Eta tells about length of life

$'s For Planned Replacement--> $ 1,000.00

$'s For Unplanned Replacement--> $20,000.00
~Optimum replacement costs, $/hr--> $ 201.488
62
Optimum replacement interval or 2*eta as limit-->

Page 22

Fraction of eta-->
Time-->
Costs-->
Ordinate for MTTF Integration-->
"Area=Ordinate*time increment"-->
MTBF=Area under the curve-->
Costs/time-->

Module1

Page 23

Module1

Page 24

Module2

Page 25

Module2

Page 26