PToceedings of the 1996 WinteT /,imulation ConfeTence

ed. J. M. Cbarnes, D. J. Morrice, D. T. Brunner, and J. J. S\vain

AN INTRODUCTION TO SIMULATION MODELING

Martha A. Centeno
Department of Industrial & Systems Engineering
College of Engineering and Design
Florida International Uni versity
Miami, Florida 33199, U.S.A.

ABSTRACT

the systems is defined by the set of variables (measures

of performance) being observed (e.g. number in queue,
status of server, number of servers). On the other hand,
under the process driven approach, the modeler thinks
in terms of the processes that the dynamic entity will
experience as it moves through the system.

This paper offers an introductory overview of discrete

simulation, with emphasis on the simulation modeling
process rather than on any specific simulation package.
Examples are used to demonstrate the application of the
methodology at each step of the process. An extensive
list of additional readings is given for the reader who
wishes to deepen his/her knowledge in a specific area.

1.2 Some Terminology

Every simulation model represents a system of some
form. The system may be a manufacturing cell, an
assembly line, a computer network, a service facility, or
a health care facility, just to name a few. Although
these systems seems to be completely different, they are
not really that different if we expressed them in terms of
their components. In general the components of a
system are dynamic entity(ies) and resource(s).
Dynamic entities are the objects moving through the
system that request one of the services provided by the
system resources.
Entities have attributes which
describe a characteristic of it. Entities may experience
events which is an instantaneous occurrence that (may)
change(s) the state of the system. An endogenous event
is an event that occurs within the system, whereas an
exogenous event is an event that occurs outside the
system.
Resources are the static entities that provide a service
to an entity. Resources are further classified based on
the type of service they provide; e.g. servers (machines
or persons), free path transporters, guided transporters,
conveyors, and so forth. Resources engage in activities
which is a time period of specified length.
The state of the system is a collection of variables
needed to describe the system's performance.
Simulation will model the random behavior of a
system, over time, by utilizing an internal simulation
clock and by sampling from a stream of random
numbers.
A random nunlber generator is a
computational algorithm that enables the creation of a

1 SIMULATION MODELING
The word simulation means different things depending
on the domain in which it is being applied. In this
tutorial, simulation should be understood as the process
of designing a model of a real system and conducting
experiments with this model for the purpose of
understanding the behavior of the system or of
evaluating various strategies for the operation of the
system (Shannon, 1975). In other words, simulation
modeling is an experimental technique and applied
methodology which seeks
~
to describe the behavior of systems,
~ to construct theories or hypotheses that account for
the observed behavior, and
./ to use these theories to predict future behavior or
the effect produced by changes in the operational
input set.

1.1 Types of Simulation

Simulation is classified based on the type of system
under study. Thus, simulation can be either continuous
or discrete. Our emphasis in this tutorial will be on
discrete simulation. There are two approaches for
discrete simulation: event-driven and process driven.
Under event driven discrete simulation, the modeler
has to think in terms of the events that may change the
status of the system to describe the model. The status of

15

16

Centeno

new number every time the function is invoked. The

sequence of these numbers is known as a random
number stream. A true random number cannot be
generated by a computer. Computers can only generate
pseudo-random numbers. However, these numbers are
statistically random; thus, their usage in simulation
modeling is valid.
1.3 The Simulation Modeling Process
The simulation modeling methodology has many
stages including: definition of the project and its goals,
abstraction of a model, digital representation of the
model, experimenting with the model, and producing
complete documentation of the project. It tends to be an
iterative process in which a model is designed, a
scenario defined, the experiment run, results analyzed,
another scenario chosen, another experiment was run,
and so forth. However, advances in computer hardware,
software engineering, artificial intelligence (AI), and
databases are exerting a major influence on the
simulation modeling process (SMP) and the
development philosophy of support tools. If we look at
the SMP (Figure 1), it is clear that simulation modeling
is a knowledge and data intensive process. Notice that
the flow through the SMP is not a sequential one;
rather, it is a highly iterative one as discussed in the
following paragraphs.
Prttiem
Fonmiation

...................~

i~...

[~:~;;~]
+

Model

Building

[ fudJdim Runs &

Analysis

. . . . . . . . . . . . .+

yes

-----....... MJre Runs?

!CdIedion

no
\,----------;
\ DocunEnt Study /

~T'

yes
no

Implermltatioo

00

yes

Figure 1: The Simulation Modeling Process

A study of a system starts when there is a problem
with an existing system, or when it is not possible to
experiment with the real system, or when the system is
under design, Le. the system does not exist yet. After

clearly understanding and assessing management needs

and expectations, the modeler must determine whether
or not simulation is indeed an adequate tool for the
analysis of the system under scrutiny. In some instance,
an analytical technique may suffice to obtain adequate
solutions. Analytical tools should be preferred over
simulation whenever possible.
The modeler must
establish a set of assumptions under which a technique,
or a combination of techniques, is applicable, feasible
and sufficient.
If simulation modeling is the technique, or it is part
of a combination of techniques, the modeler proceeds to
gather data and performs proper statistical analysis to
support models of the system. The needed data may be
available in many different places and/or in different
formats. For example, data may reside on paper, or it
may reside within a database of a computerized
information system. In either case, statistical tests must
be performed without altering or destroying the original
raw data. When there is no data available, the modeler
must define the inputs to the model about the system
using rules of thumb and/or personal experience.
A conceptual model of a system must be devised and
converted into a digital model. The modeler resorts to
tools that will make the transition less difficult and less
time consuming such as model generator front ends,
simulation packages and so on. However, converting a
conceptual model into a digital one is by itself
meaningless, unless such a digital model is thoroughly
verified and validated. The reliability of the digital
model is directly affected by the quality of the
verification and validation processes.
Ve rification
entails assuring that the digital code of the model
perfonns as expected and intended, and validation seeks
to show that the model behavior represents that of the
real-world system being modeled.
With a reliable and accurate digital model, the
modeler proceeds to the experimentation phase.
Statistical experiments are designed to meet the
objectives of the study. Observing a model under one
set of experimental conditions usually provides little or
incomplete infonnation. Thus, a set of experimental
conditions must be analyzed within the framework of
multiple experimental conditions.
The capstone of the SMP is the preparation of a set of
recommendations into a fonnal management report.
This report includes implementation and operations
guidelines.
1.4 AdvantageslDisadvantages of Using Simulation
Simulation modeling is a highly flexible technique
because its models do not require the many simplifying
assumptions needed by most analytical techniques.

An Introduction to SiInulation l\lodeling

Furthermore, simulation tends to be easier to apply

(once the programming side is overcome) than analytic
methods. In addition, simulation data is usually less
costly than data collected using a real system. However,
despite its flexibility, simulation modeling is not the
magic wand that solves all the problems. Constructing
simulation models may be costly, particularly because
they need to be thoroughly verified and validated.
Additionally, the cost of the experiment may increase as
the computational time increases. The statistical nature
of simulation requires that many runs of the same model
be done to achieve reliable and accurate results.
Despite its disadvantages, simulation remains a
valuable tool to address a variety of engineering
problems, at the design, planning, and operations levels.
In each of this areas, simulation can be used to provide
infonnation for decision making, or it may actually
provide a solution (Pritsker, 1992).
2 STATISTICAL ASPECTS

2.1 Statistical Tools

It is not uncommon for a new comer to the simulation
modeling methodology to feel hesitant about it because
of its intense use of statistics. Fortunately, there are a
variety of support tools to overcome this hesitation.
Simulation packages such as SIMAN/ARENA
(Banks, et al., 1994), GPSSIH (Henriksen, 1989), and
SLAMSYSlEM (O'Reilly, 1994) provide some support
for both the analysis of data for inputs as well as for the
analysis of output. In addition, there are several
packages that has been designed to support the
statistical analysis needed in simulation. For example,
ExpertFit (Law and Vincent, 1995) enables the input
data modeling for up to twenty seven probabilistic
models; a variety of statistical tests and measures of
accuracy are implemented -in this package. Another
example is SIMSTAT (Blaisdell and Haddock, 1993)
which is an interactive program that allows the analysis
of both input and output data. Both packages are
Windows-Based, and they both allow for the user to
save their outputs in various formats.
In the following paragraphs, a discussion of some of
the issues and techniques needed are discussed.

17

three possible scenarios at this stage of the SMP:

It:] There seems to be an ;mnzense amount of data
There is no data at all
It:] There is a few amount of data
On the onset, the first situation may appear to be
ideal: the more data, the merrier. But, caution must be
exercise as the data available may be irrelevant for the
purposes of the study. Even if the data presents itself as
relevant to the study, traditional common sense
practices must be done before using the data to develop
models for simulation. Is the data reliable? How was it
collected? Are there any circumstances that occurred
during the data collection process that may lead to
skewed or bias data models?
Once sufficient
information about the data and the data collection
process has been compiled, classical statistical
techniques should be used to develop data models.
Some of these techniques are correlation analysis, point
and interval estimation, linear and non-linear
regression, and curve fitting in general.
Assume that there is a san1ple in the available data
set that represent the number of customers that arrived
at a bank in a IS-minute time interval.. Further,
assume that these data was collected over the course of
two weeks, between the hours of 9:00 AM to 2:00 PM
and 5:00 PM to 6:00 PM. Correlation analysis will help
answer questions such as is the customer arrival rate
constant through the day? throughout the week? If it is
not, how does it vary? Could the arrival rate be
modeled differently for each type of service the bank
provide? If yes, do the data lend themselves for proper
breakdown? The use of graphical techniques such as
line graphs and scatter plots will also help in
establishing how to cluster the data set. Figure, for
instance, reveals that there are changes in the rate of
arrival throughout the day. Further, it seems that there
is a variation of the rate of arrival depending not only
on the time, but also on the day of the week.
Correlation analysis should be used to confirm the
visual hypothesis.

2.2 Analysis of Inputs

A simulation model requires data and/or data models
for to come alive. Without input data models, the
simulation model itself is incapable of generating any
data about the behavior of the system it represents. A
simulation practitioner may be confronted with one of

'I

:~~~;~~
l--+-lIPll--+-!IJI:lII

'OaI

~~~~~~
1I _ _

1r'd~1JUI----,--!IJI:lII-"C1

;;~~~~~
_

fnll

Figure 2: Line Graph of Sample Data Set

18

It is important that these previous questions be

answer by analyzing the data because if it is assume that
the entire sample of 1000 observations comes from the
same population, a single data model may be built for it
which will not reflect the true arri val rate behavior.
In our example, it is possible to construct three
different probability data models to account for the
change in the arri val rate. Goodness of fit tests, such as
the X2 test and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test need to be
done to test the hypothesized distribution. In our
example, we could formulate that

"0 = arrival

rate follows a uniform distribution

between 9:00 AM and 11 :00 AM

After using point estimators for the lower and the

upper bounds of the uniform distribution, we can test 8 0
using the X2 test if the number of observations is
adequate and if the expected number of observations in
each and every interval is at least five.
The second situation is clearly the worst case
scenario because the simulation practitioner has to rely
on his/her experience and knowledge about the system
to establish appropriate input data models. In this case,
the modeler has to quantify his/her educated guesses
based on any estimated values available. Such estimates

Distribution Name:
Definition of Variable:
Some Assumptions:

Distribution Name:
Definition of Variable:
Some Assumptions:

may come from the people who operate the system. In

some cases the estimates given by the operators may just
be an "average" or mean value. Depending on the
actual system, the modeler may use such value as a
constant or as the mean value of a distribution. To
decide on the distribution, the modeler should use
knowledge about the areas of application of the
distributions. Table 1 give a summary of some classical
distributions and what they are capable of modeling.
The third situation requires some of the efforts of the
first one (assessing quality of data, data collection
process and so forth). Usually, there is a small sample
from which one has to develop data input models.
Statistical methods based on the t-student distribution
are utilized. If the sample size is "large enough", then
techniques based on the Normal distribution may be
used.

2.3 Analysis of Outputs

The actual analysis of the data provided by the
simulation model will depend on the initial objectives of
the study and on the type of system being modeled
(Sadowski, 1993). There are two basic types of systems:
terminating and non-terminating.

Poisson

Binomial
X

= Number of successes among n

= Number of events during one unit of

Bernoulli trials
It can be used in cases where experiment
consists of a sequence of n trials and n is
fixed.
Trials are dichotomous & identical
(Bernoulli trials).
Trials are independent and have same
probability of success.
Commonly used to model quality control
and reliability data models.

measure (time, volume, len.e;th,.. )

Binomial converges to a Poisson (n ~
and 1t ~ 0).
It provides probabilities of how many
events will occur over a period of time.
Events occur at some average rate. Rate
of events remains constant over the
duration of a unit of time. No two events
can occur simultaneously.
Commonly used in queueing analysis and
to model rate of arrivals / rate of service.

Normal

Exponential

X = depends on the system under study

00

=time or distance between two

consecutive events
It can be applied to model physical,
It is a special case of the Gamma model
chemical properties. It is the best know
(r=1 ).
and most widely used distribution.
It is nlemory-less when modeling time
It can be used to model both discrete and
In a Poisson process, the rate of arrival /
continuous variables, but with caution
service is Poisson and the time between
because its domain is real and expands
arrivals / services is Exponential.
from -00 to +00
Table 1: Summary of Some Distributions

An Introduction to SiInulation l\Iodeling

Terminating systems are systems that have a clear

point in time when they start operations and a clear
point in time when the end operations. For these type
of systems, it is required to established the sample size
and the simulation length. The latter is usually
established by the context of the problem. For a bank
facility, it may be the entire day, or just the rush hours
during Friday afternoon.
The sample size is
established, based on the accuracy, reliability, and
variation desired for the study, using the equation

n=

2
2
Za/2(J
2

where d is the accuracy expressed in the same units as

those of the measure of performance (e.g. within 5
minutes), z is the critical value from the standard
normal table at a given reliability level, I-a, (e.g. 950/0
reliability leads to an a = 0.05), and (J is the standard
deviation desired.
The value of n is the minimum number of
replications (not runs) needed to have statistically
valid results. It is very common for the novice to
confuse a replication worth a simulation run. A run is
what happens from the moment the user clicks on the
run option of the main menu, to the moment in which
the software finishes outputting data and comes back to
the main menu. A replication, on the other hand, is
what happens from the simulated start time to the
closing simulation time. A simulation run of this type
of systems has n replications. The summary report
from replication to replication is different, but the
summary reports from run to run are exactly the same,
unless the random number stream is changed between
runs.
Non terminating systems are systems that have no
clear beginning time when they start operations, nor do
they have a clear point in time when they stop
operations. For this kind of systems, it is necessary
first to bring the simulation model to steady state
before the model generated data is used in analysis.
All the data generated before the model reaches steady
state should be thrown away. Upon reaching steady
state, it is necessary to decide the length of the single
replication that is to be run. Usually, the method of
batching is used to analyze this data. Batching refers
to the breaking the highly correlated, sequential
observations generated by the model, into groups or
batches. These batches would then be treated in the
same fashion as the replication in the case of
terminating systems.
A batch is formed based on the level of correlation
between observations separated by a given lag k.
Statistical theory tells us that the farther apart two

19

correlated observations are, the smaller the correlation.

So what one needs to do is to compute the correlation
factor for various values of the lag k (20-500), graph
the correlation factor, and identify the lag value at
which the correlation actor p is approximately O. From
that process, the number of observations in the batch is
established taking into account that this is a random
process, so a safety factor needs to be added.
Once the batches are formed, each batch is treated
as an independent replication, and similar analysis to
that for a terminating system should be done.
Regardless of the type of system, the modeler must
keep in mind that reporting point estimates of the
measure of performance are not that helpful.
Confidence intervals on critical measures of
performance should be built to add credibility and
robustness to the study.

3 CODING THE MODEL

This the stage that, at first, seems to be the most time
consuming. However, without proper planning and
proper analysis, the effort at this stage is useless. It
does not matter how Hbeautiful" the model looks like
(animation), or how fancy (full of details) the model is.
If it does not addressed the original problem, it is
useless.
The modeler must be knowledgeable about
programming and/or a simulation package. Although
simulation models can be built using general purpose
languages such as C/C++ and FORTRAN, nowadays
there are a significant number of packages that have
proven themselves as versatile and robust. Some of
these packages are domain specific, while other are
more general purpose.
These packages include
GPSS/WM,
GPSSlWorld,
SIMAN/ARENA,
SLAMSYSTEM@,
WITNESS,
SIMFACTORY,
ProModel, AutoMod, AIM, and Taylor (Banks, 1995).

4 VERIFICATION & VALIDATION

Verification is the process of determining that the
model operates as intended. In other words, it is the
process of debugging the model. All the verification
activities are closely related to the model.
An
empirical way to check if the model is behaving as the
modeler intended is to put constant values for all the
random processes in the model, and to calculate the
outputs the model is supposed to give. This process is
by no means sufficient or enough to declare a model as
verified, but it helps to identify subtle errors. In fact,
determining that a model is absolutely verified may be
impossible to attain.
During the verification stage, the modeler must test

20

each major component of the model. These can be

done by doing static testing (correctness proofs,
structured walk through) or by doing dynamic testing
(execute the model under various conditions) (Sargent,
1984 and 1994)
Validation is the process of ascertaining that a
model is an acceptable representation of the "real
world" system. The validation process is concerned
with establishing the confidence that the end user will
have on the model. Some critical questions to ask
during this stage are does the model adequately
represents the relationships of the "real" system?, is
the model generated output "typical" of the real
system? Validation requires that the model be tested
for reasonableness (continuity, consistency, and
degeneracy). A point to start the validation process
empirically is to question the structural assumptions of
the model as well as the data assumptions made early
in the SMP. A more sophisticated way to validate a
model may require the use of some analytical tools
such as Queueing Theory, but for it additional data
may be needed (Sargent, 1994).
In summary, verification and validation can be
informal (audits, face validations, Turing test, walk
through), Static (consistency checking, data flow
analysis), Dynamic (Black-box testing, regression
testing), Symbolic (cause-effect diagrams, path
analysis), Constraint (assertion checking, inductive
assertions), and Formal (Logical deduction, Predicate
calculus, proof of correctness). For more details in any
of these test, see Balci (1995 and 1996).

5 ENSURING SUCCESS
Simulation modeling is very susceptible to the ability
of the project to leader to organize the study. It is
paramount to clearly define the objectives of the study;
otherwise, there will be no clear guidelines as to what
type of experimentation should be done. Further,
establishing which assumptions are acceptable depends
on what the objecti ves are.
A modeling strategy needs to be developed early in
the process. The complexity of the system may be too
much to include in the model. In fact, such level of
complexity may not be desirable. A model can be
simplified by omission, aggregation, or substitution.
Omission refers to leaving out details that are
negligible; for example, sojourn time over a two-foot
distance by human being. Aggregation refers to the
lumping of details / activities; for example, it may not
be possible to model the time it takes to move a box
from one table to another, when the tables are next to
each other, but it may be possible to measure the time
it takes from the moment the server seizes the box,

C~enteno

opens it, performs whatever activity is supposed to

perform, and places it on a cart. Substitution refers to
replacing an object in the system for another one with
similar, not equal, characteristics; for example,
assuming that two cashiers at a fast food place work at
the same speed, when indeed they do not.
It is very typical for novice simulation practitioners
to resist omission. They want to build an "exact"
replica of the real world system. This situation may
lead to costly and delayed simulation studies.
Similarly, a very experienced modeler may fall I in the
trap of simplifying a bit too much. The impact of the
simplifications made on the model generated data must
be taken into consideration before implementing the
simplifications. Again, the impacts are assessed in
light of the objectives of the study.
It is very important that the modeler, or someone in
the team, be properly trained in both simulation
modeling and statistical analysis. A common pitfall of
simulation studies is poor analysis of both the input
data (to formulate data models) and the model
generated data.
A simulation study is not a simple task. Instead of
setting an absolute delivery date, plan on having
intermediate progress reports. This approach will help
you and the end user of the model to verify, validate
and accept the recommendations of the study. It is
very likely that as you make a progress report, the
owner of the system points out that you have not quite
understood a portion of the operations of the system.
In summary, keep in mind the maxims outlined by
Musselman (1994), and transcribed below:
~ Define the problem to be studied, including a
written statement of the problem-solving objective
~ Work on the right problem; fuzzy objectives lead
to unclear success.
~ Listen to the customer; do not look for a solution
without firsts listening to the problem.
~ Communicate; keep people infonned, for the
journey is more valuable than the solution.
~ Only by knowing where you started can you judge
how far you have come.
~ Direct the model; advance the Illodel by
formulating it backwards.
~ Manage expectations; it is easier to correct an
expectation now, than to change a belief later.
~ Do not take data for granted.
~ Focus on the problem more than the model.
~ Add complexity; do not start with it.
~ Do not let the model become so sophisticated that
it compensates for a bad design, or so complex
that it goes beyond your ability to implement.
~ Verbal agreements are not worth the paper they
are printed on.

An Introduction to SiJnulation AIodeling

../
../
../
../
../
../
../

Customer perceptions require attention.

Report successes early and often.
If it does not make sense, check it out.
People decide; models do not.
Know when to stop; ultimate truth is not
affordable.
Present a choice; people do not resist their own
discoveries.
Document, Document, Document!

6 CONCLUDING REMARKS
This tutorial has been intended as an introduction to
this powerful technique.
In-depth study of other
sources is strongly recommended before engaging in a
simulation study. Sources for simulation modeling
include Nelson (1995), Banks and Carson (1984), Law
and Kelton (1991), Sadowski (1993), Pidd 91994). For
statistical analysis, recommended source include
Nelson (1992), Law and Kelton (1991), and
Alexopoulos (1995). For software selection, Banks
(1995) is a good starting point. For the methodology
in general, excellent sources include Pegden, Shannon,
and Sadowski 1995), Shannon (1975), Banks and
Carson (1991), and Law and Kelton (1991).

REFERENCES
Alexopoulos, C. 1995.
Advanced Methods for
Simulation Output Analysis. In Proceedings of
the 1995 Winter Simulation Conference, Eds. C.
Alexopoulos, K. Kang, W. R. Lilegdon, and D.
Goldsman. 101-109.
Balci, O. 1995.
Principles and Techniques of
Simulation Validation, Verification, and Testing.
In Proceedings of the 1995 Winter Simulation
Conference, Eds. C. Alexopoulos, K. Kang, W. R.
Lilegdon, and D. Goldsman.
Balci, O. 1996.
~rinciples of Simulation Model
Validation,
Verification,
and
Testing.
International Journal in Computer Simulation, to
appear.
Banks, J. 1995. Software Simulation. In Proceedings
of the 1995 Winter Simulation Conference, Eds. C
. Alexopoulos, K. Kang, W. R. Lilegdon, and D.
Goldsman. 32-38
Banks, J., B. Burnette, H. Kozloski, and J. Rose. 1994.
Introduction to SIMAN V and CINEMA. New
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Banks, J. and J. S. Carson. 1984. Discrete-Event
System Simulation. Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey,
Prentice Hall.
Blaisdell, W. E. and J. Haddock. 1993. Simulation
Analysis Using SIMSTAT 2.0. In Proceedings of

21

the 1993 Winter Simulation Conference, Eds. G .

W. Evans, M. Mollaghasemi, E. C. Russell, W. E .
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Henriksen, 1. O. and R. C. Crain. 1989. GPSSIH
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SLAMSYSTEM. In Proceedings of the 1994
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Manivannan, D. A. Sadowski, and A. F. Seila.
4] 5-419.
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2nd Edition. New York, McGraw Hill USA.
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An Introduction to Computer
Simulation. In Proceedings of the 1994 Winter
Sinzulation Conference, Eds. 1. D. Tew, S.
Manivannan, D. A. Sadowski, and A. F. Seila. 714.
Pritsker, A.A. B. 1992. Simulation: The Premier
Technique of Industrial Engineering. Industrial
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Sadowski, R. 1993. Selling Simulation and Simulation
Results. In Proceedings of the 1993 Winter
Simulation Conference. ed. G. W. Evans, M.
Mollaghasemi, E. C. Russell, W. E. Biles, 65-68.
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Systems Modeling Corporation. 1994. SIMAN V

Reference Guide. Sewickley, Pennsylvania.

AUTHOR BIOGRAPHY
MARTHA A. CENTENO is an assistant professor in
the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering
at Florida International Uoi versity. She recei ved a
B.S. in Chemical Engineering from lTESO University
(Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico), a M.S. in Industrial
Engineering from Louisiana State University, and a
Ph. D. in Industrial Engineering from Texas A&M
University. Dr. Centeno's current research interest
include the utilization of artificial intelligence and
database technologies to develop comprehensive and
smart simulation modeling environments. Dr. Centeno
is a member of ASA, Alpha Pi Mu, Tau Beta Pi, lIE,
INFORMS, and SCS.

('cnteno