Crecked Foundation
Crecked Foundation
Crecked Foundation
Many things changed with the end of the Cold War. One of the main
changes is the new enthusiasm for public international law. In a world
freed of an overwhelming rivalry of two great power blocs, but by no
means freed of conflict, it became possible to think of a qualitatively
enhanced role for the rule of law in the regulation of international relations. Nowhere has this thinking been more evident than in the regulation
of conflict and warfare between ethnic groups. Two main prongs of
international legal activity are the establishment of tribunals to punish
genocide and crimes against humanity and the elaboration of various
doctrines of human rights, including a possible right of ethnic groups to
secede from states in which they are located. This asserted right, which
would be a reversal of existing international law, is, in my view, ill
considered.
The newly asserted right to secede is to be held by ethnic groups and
is derived from a reinterpretation of the principle of the self-determination of nations. Theorists display varying degrees of enthusiasm in their
advocacy of such a right, but all of them, whether they would permit
secession generously or only reluctantly after certain conditions have
been fulfilled, see secession as an answer to problems of ethnic conflict
and violence. The position I shall take here is that secession is almost
never an answer to such problems and that it is likely to make them
worse. The proposals, in short, are not informed by any serious understanding of patterns of ethnic conflict or ethnic-group political behavior.
Secession, I shall argue, does not create the homogeneous successor
Journal of Democracy Volume 14, Number 2 April 2003
Journal of Democracy
states its proponents often assume will be created. Nor does secession
reduce conflict, violence, or minority oppression once successor states
are established. Guarantees of minority protection in secessionist regions are likely to be illusory; indeed, many secessionist movements
have as one of their aims the expulsion or subordination of minorities in
the secessionist regions. The very existence of a right to secede, moreover, is likely to dampen efforts at coexistence in the undivided state,
including the adoption of federalism or regional autonomy, which might
alleviate some of the grievances of putatively secessionist minorities.
Since most secessionist movements will be resisted by central governments and most secessionists receive insufficient foreign military
assistance to succeed, propounding a right to secede, without the means
to success, is likely to increase ultimately fruitless secessionist warfare,
at the expense of internal efforts at political accommodation and at the
cost of increased human suffering. Efforts to improve the condition of
minorities ought to be directed at devising institutions to increase their
satisfaction in existing states, rather than encouraging them to think in
terms of exit options. In those rare cases in which separation of antagonists is, at the end of the day, the best course, partition can be
accomplished reluctantly, as a matter of prudence, without recognizing
a right to secede. But neither partition nor secession should be viewed
as generally desirable solutions to the problems of ethnic conflict.
Donald L. Horowitz
Journal of Democracy
still dividing further, have long since discovered. Moreover, even at the
outset, the minorities problem is not a trivial detail in recognizing secessions; it is, instead, the central reason why the idea of a clean break is a
chimera.
A more cautious version of the right to secede is espoused by those
who view secession principally as a remedial right,7 a last-ditch response to discrimination or oppression by a central government.8 If
interethnic accommodation fails and one portion of a population is unalterably hostile to a group of its fellow citizens, then, it is said, republican
theories may support political divorce on the ground that separation would
produce two states in which republican democracy is viable instead of
one that lacks essential preconditions to its successful practice.9
Despite important differences in scope and reasoning among these
justifications for secession, there is a substratum of assumptions in all
of them. Secession, it is assumed, can produce homogeneous successor
states. In those cases in which heterogeneity remains, it is asserted,
minority rights can nevertheless be guaranteed. Like the Badinter Commission, most writers advocating a right to secede make no provision
for further secessions, except, of course, insofar as infinite regress of
secessionist rights may be implied in their formulations. Secession will
also, it is assumed, result in a diminution of conflict that produced the
secessionist movement. Rarely are these assumptions discussed or even
rendered explicit, but they are essential to the analysis.
If you can think about something which is attached to something else
without thinking about what it is attached to, then you have what is called
a legal mind.10 So pronounced the late constitutional lawyer, Thomas
Reed Powell, three-quarters of a century ago. Most theorists of a right to
secession have, in this caricatured sense, legal minds. They have generally not concerned themselves with the ethnic politics that produces
secessionist claims and that will be affected by new rights to secede. It is
no accident that most people who do study ethnic politics are decidedly
less enthusiastic about secession than are the international lawyers and
philosophers who are the main proponents of a right to secede.
Donald L. Horowitz
10
Journal of Democracy
Donald L. Horowitz
11
government has been utterly ungenerous. Nevertheless, central governments are risk averse about devolution. The best way to dry up devolution
as a tool of interethnic accommodationand a promising tool it isis
to establish a right, recognized in international law, for territorially concentrated minorities to secede. If there is a well-recognized right to
secede, the first stirrings of territorially based ethnic discontent will be
likely to be met with repression. The possibility that federalism or regional autonomy can lawfully ripen into secession will make any such
experiment too costly to entertain. It has been difficult to persuade central decision makers in Indonesia and Sri Lanka to devolve power to
regions. A right to secession would easily dissuade them.
One reason central governments are so reluctant to countenance the
possibility of secession, even for troublesome regions that some central
decision makers might wish to be free of, is that the secession of one
region upsets ethnic balances and forces groups in other regions to think
afresh about whether they wish to remain in the truncated state with its
new ethnic balances. This was clearly visible in Yugoslavia after the
Slovene and Croat decisions to secede, when others had to decide in
turn whether the relative expansion in Serb power in the rump state was
in their interest. Yoruba narrowly decided to stay in Nigeria, despite the
relative increase in Hausa power when Ibo decided to leave the state in
1967, and the departure of East Bengal (Bangladesh) from Pakistan
destabilized relations among the groups that remained in the rump state.
Quite often the fears of central authorities about secession are derided
as unsubstantiated apprehensions of domino effects. But domino effects
are usually conceived as action based merely on a successful example
in another location, whereas what is involved in the first secession is
action that affects directly, rather than just by example, the relative positions of other groups remaining in the state.
The creation of a right to secede could not be more untimely. More
and more states have been designing internal political arrangements,
including devolution, to reduce the incidence of ethnic conflict. That is
where the emphasis needs to be, not on making exit strategies more
plausible. More about this shortly.
A right to secede effectively advantages militant members of ethnic
groups at the expense of conciliators. Since most central governments
will not recognize the right to secede, those who wish to pursue such a
course will need to resort to arms. Those who are willing to resort to
arms are by no means simply latter-day versions of the politicians of
their own group whom they seek to displace. Contrast Hashim Thaci of
the Kosovo Liberation Army with the Kosovar political leader Ibrahim
Rugova; Prabhakaran of the Tamil Tigers with Amirthalingham of the
Tamil United Liberation Front, whom he had assassinated; the Southern Peoples Liberation Army in the Sudan with the old Liberal Party
that preceded it. Violence disproportionately attracts people with
12
Journal of Democracy
an interest in aggression. The people willing to take up arms for secession are those who are willing to be brutal with their ethnic enemies and
with their own rivals as well. As their advantage grows, new bouts of
ethnic cleansing can be expected.
In some formulations, secession is said to be an exceptional right
that comes into play if it is the only way that a defined population
can exercise its right of internal self-determination.17 But the facts do
not support the assumption that secession is ever the only way. Are
the Kurds in Iraq secessionist or autonomist? They have gone back and
forth. Are Philippine Muslims? They, too, have gone back and forth.
Ibo tried unsuccessfully to secede and then reintegrated into Nigerian
politics. In such cases, it looks to outsiders at any given moment as if
secession is the only way minorities can participate in determining
their own future, but there is more fluidity to ethnic politics than those
who write about populations that are unalterably hostile18 to each other
have sensed.
Moreover, the seemingly moderate position of some proponents of a
right to secession that secession is justified only if others are unalterably opposed or minorities have been victimized is not likely to work
out moderately in practice, for it is an incentive to ethnic polarization.
If independence can only be won legitimately after matters have been
carried to extremes, then, by all means, there are people willing to carry
them to extremes. In the 1980s and early 1990s, Sikh separatists in the
Indian Punjab were willing to attack Hindus in order to precipitate attacks on Sikhs elsewhere in India. There is no shortage of methods to
satisfy tough standards of victimization or oppression. A right to secede could indeed contribute to the sense that secession is the only way.
There may be times when it is felt best to part peoples. The British
believed such a time had come in India in 1947, and the United Nations
believed such a time had come a year later in Palestine. When it is prudent, parting can be done by consent, as in the former Soviet Union and
in Czechoslovakia, or occasionally by international action. To do this
requires the creation of no rights.
Consider the pernicious effect on the balance of intragroup opinion of
a right to secede in a concrete case: Sri Lanka. Will the Sri Lankan Tamils
return as readily as they would otherwise to a thoroughly reconstructed
but undivided Sri Lanka if they discover that the secession to which they
turned so reluctantly was merely an exercise of their rights under international law? It is always hard for antagonistic groups to accommodate
each other in a single state. A right to secede will make it harder.
Donald L. Horowitz
13
Bangladesh, Crawford noted, was best viewed not as exemplar of a recognized right to secede but rather as a fait accompli achieved as a result
of foreign military assistance in special circumstances.22 Other cases,
such as Eritrea and the Baltic states, involved mutual consent. Where
central governments oppose unilateral secession, Crawford found, the
secessionists gain little or no international recognition. This certainly
has been the case in northern Somalia and Transdniestria, among others. And, finally, there is no recognition of a unilateral right to secede
based merely on a majority vote of the population of a given subdivision or territory. In principle, self-determination for peoples or groups
within the State is to be achieved by participation in its constitutional
system, and on the basis of respect for its territorial integrity. 23
Crawford might have, but did not, note the contrary but truly exceptional position of the government of the United Kingdom, which has
stated, in ways meant to be binding, that a majority of the people of
Northern Ireland might vote to dissolve their union with Britain and to
join the Irish Republic instead. But this has not been the position of other
states, and it is not the position of the United Kingdom with respect to
Scotland or Wales.
If a right to secede is a by-product of an emerging right to democratic
governance, there is not much evidence of it. Subtract the Franck formulation and a somewhat earlier one by Cassese,24 and the dedication of
international law to democratic governance becomes much thinner. What
little there is mainly is confined to writers, rather than custom, state practice, treaties, or court decisions.
Journal of Democracy
14
Donald L. Horowitz
15
Journal of Democracy
16
Donald L. Horowitz
17
tives from Research and Policy Making, University of Bonn, 1416 December 2000,
4.
13. See Saadia Touval, The Boundary Politics of Independent Africa (Cambridge:
Harvard University Press, 1972).
14. See Donald L. Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict (Berkeley: University of
California Press, 2000), 28188; and Donald L. Horowitz, Irredentas and Secessions:
Adjacent Phenomena, Neglected Connections, in Naomi Chazan, ed., Irredentism and
International Politics (Studies in International Politics) (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner, 1991), 922.
15. Nicholas Sambanis, Partition as a Solution to Ethnic War: An Empirical Critique of the Theoretical Literature, World Politics 52 (July 2000): 43783.
16. See Nicholas Sambanis, Partition as a Solution to Ethnic War, 479; and Donald
L. Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict, 59296.
17. Diane F. Orentlicher, International Responses to Separatist Claims, 14 (emphasis omitted).
18. Diane F. Orentlicher, International Responses to Separatist Claims, 17.
19. See Thomas M. Franck, The Emerging Right to Democratic Governance.
20. James Crawford, State Practice and International Law in Relation to Secession, British Yearbook of International Law 1998 (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1999),
85117.
21. James Crawford, State Practice and International Law in Relation to Secession, 114.
22. James Crawford, State Practice and International Law in Relation to Secession, 115.
23. James Crawford, State Practice and International Law in Relation to Secession, 116.
24. Antonio Cassese, Political Self-Determination.
25. The International Court of Justice has itself recognized periodically that customary international law comprises a limited set of norms to assure coexistence and
cooperation among states. See for example Case Concerning Delimitation of the Maritime Boundary in the Gulf of Maine Area, 1984 I.C.J. 246.
26. Karl N. Llewellyn, The Common Law Tradition: Deciding Appeals (Boston: Little,
Brown, 1960).
27. Robert Lansing, quoted in David Fromkin, Kosovo Crossing: American Ideals
Meet Reality on the Balkan Battlefields (New York: Free Press, 1999), 127.
28. See Arend Lijphart, Democracy in Plural Societies: A Comparative Exploration
(New Haven: Yale University Press, 1977).
29. I have written about such devices in various places. See for example Donald L.
Horowitz, A Democratic South Africa? Constitutional Engineering in a Divided Society
(Berkeley: University of California Press, 1991).
30. See Donald L. Horowitz, Constitutional Design: An Oxymoron, NOMOS 42
(2000): 25384.