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CHANGEOLOGY
by Les Robinson
An enjoyable, inspiring
crash course in social
change thinking.
Now on Amazon.

By Les Robinson
[Fully revised and rewritten Jan 2009]

behaviours so they become better

fits for the needs of individuals and
groups. In Diffusion of Innovations
it is not people who change, but the
innovations themselves.

Diffusion of Innovations seeks to

explain how innovations are taken
up in a population. An innovation is
an idea, behaviour, or object that is
perceived as new by its audience.

Why do certain innovations spread

more quickly than others? And why
do others fail? Diffusion scholars
recognise five qualities that determine
the success of an innovation.

Diffusion of Innovations offers three

valuable insights into the process of
social change:
- What qualities make an innovation
spread.

1) Relative advantage
This is the degree to which an
innovation is perceived as better
than the idea it supersedes by a
particular group of users, measured
in terms that matter to those users,
like economic advantage, social
prestige, convenience, or satisfaction.
The greater the perceived relative
advantage of an innovation, the more
rapid its rate of adoption is likely to
be.

- The importance of peer-peer

conversations and peer networks.
- Understanding the needs of
different user segments.
These insights have been tested in
more than 6000 research studies and
field tests, so they are amongst the
most reliable in the social sciences.

What qualities make

innovations spread?

There are no absolute rules for what

constitutes relative advantage. It
depends on the particular perceptions
and needs of the user group.

Diffusion of Innovations takes a

radically different approach to most
other theories of change. Instead of
focusing on persuading individuals
to change, it sees change as being
primarily about the evolution or
reinvention of products and

2) Compatibility with existing

values and practices
This is the degree to which an
innovation is perceived as being
consistent with the values, past
1

A Summary of Diffusion of Innovations

individuals in a population (the history

of the mobile phone is a perfect
example).

experiences, and needs of potential

adopters. An idea that is incompatible
with their values, norms or practices
will not be adopted as rapidly as an
innovation that is compatible.

A good way to achieve this is to

make users into partners in a
continuous process of redevelopment.
Computer games companies,
pharmaceutical corporations
and rural research institutes are
examples of organisations that seek
to make users active partners in
improving innovations by supporting
user communities or by applying
participative action research
techniques.

3) Simplicity and ease of use

This is the degree to which an
innovation is perceived as difficult to
understand and use. New ideas that
are simpler to understand are adopted
more rapidly than innovations that
require the adopter to develop new
skills and understandings.
4) Trialability
This is the degree to which an
innovation can be experimented with
on a limited basis. An innovation that
is trialable represents less risk to the
individual who is considering it.

Many computer games are now built

with the intention that they will be
modified by enthusiastic users. Says
consumer behaviour expert, Francine
Gardin. Theyre actually participating
in the design of the game. These
consumers are really passionate
about the game its almost like a
cult. They have an incredible sense of
loyalty and ownership of that brand.
Instead of complaining, they fix the
product.2

5) Observable results
The easier it is for individuals to see
the results of an innovation, the more
likely they are to adopt it. Visible
results lower uncertainty and also
stimulate peer discussion of a new
idea, as friends and neighbours of
an adopter often request information
about it.

The concept of reinvention is

important because it tells us that no
product or process can rest on its
laurels: continuous improvement is
the key to spreading an innovation.

According to Everett Rogers, these

five qualities determine between 49
and 87 percent of the variation in the
adoption of new products. 1

The importance of peerpeer conversations and peer

networks

These five qualities make a valuable

checklist to frame focus group
discussions or project evaluations.
They can help identify weaknesses
to be addressed when improving
products or behaviours.

The second important insight is

that impersonal marketing methods
like advertising and media stories
may spread information about new
innovations, but its conversations
that spread adoption.

Reinvention is a key principle in

Diffusion of Innovations. The success
of an innovation depends on how well
it evolves to meet the needs of more
and more demanding and risk-averse

Why? Because the adoption of new

products or behaviours involves the
2

A Summary of Diffusion of Innovations

Adoptions due to
mass media

Adoptions due to
interpersonal communication

Time
The Bass Forecasting Model. Source: Mahajan, Muller and Bass (1990) as
reproduced in Rogers, E.M. (2003) p210.

becomes more essential to the

decision to adopt. This principle is
embodied in the Bass Forecasting
Model (above), which illustrates how
face-to-face communication becomes
more influential over time, and mass
media less influential.

management of risk and uncertainty.

Its usually only people we personally
know and trust and who we know
have successfully adopted the
innovation themselves who can
give us credible reassurances that
our attempts to change wont result
in embarrassment, humiliation,
financial loss or wasted time. They
are the people whose lived example
is the best teacher of how to adopt an
innovation.

The emphasis on peer-peer

communication has led diffusion
scholars to be interested in peer
networks. Many diffusion-style
campaigns now consciously attempt
to utilise peer networks, for
instance by using Popular Opinion
Leader techniques or various viral
marketing methods. These methods
which are becoming increasingly
popular aim to recruit wellconnected individuals to spread
new ideas through their own social
networks.

Early adopters are the exception to

this rule. They are on the lookout for
advantages and tend to see the risks
as low because they are financially
more secure, more personally
confident, and better informed about
the particular product or behaviour.
Often they will grasp at innovations
on the basis of no more than a well
worded news article. The rest of the
population, however, see higher risks
in change, and therefore require
assurance from trusted peers that an
innovation is do-able and provides
genuine benefits.

Opinion leader tactics have been

successful in raising the standards
of practice by medical doctors,3
promoting weatherisation of homes,4
and encouraging safe sex in gay
communities.5

As an innovation spreads from early

adopters to majority audiences, faceto-face communication therefore

Rogers notes that by 2003 there had

been eight randomised controlled
3

A Summary of Diffusion of Innovations

Early majority
Innovators

High

Late majority

Early
adopters
Propensity to adopt

Laggards

Low

Low

Propensity to resist

High

Diffusion scholars believe any population or social network can be broken down into five
segments, for any given innovation.

And they love to talk about them.

Right now, theyre the ones busily
building stills to convert cooking
oil into diesel fuel and making
websites to tell the world about it.
Unfortunately their one-eyed fixation
on a new behaviour or gadget can
make them seem dangerously
idealistic to the pragmatic majority.
Yet no change program can
thrive without their energy and
commitment.

trials the gold standard in evaluation

all of which demonstrated the
success of opinion leader tactics in
producing behavioural changes.

Understanding the needs of

different user segments
Diffusion researchers believe that
a population can be broken down
into five different segments, based
on their propensity to adopt a
specific innovation: innovators,
early adopters, early majorities, late
majorities and laggards.

How to work with innovators:

Track them down and become their
first followers7, providing support
and publicity for their ideas.

Each group has its own personality,

at least as far as its attitude to a
particular innovation goes.

Invite keen innovators to be

partners in designing your project.

When thinking about these groups,

dont imagine its your job to shift
people from one segment to another.
It doesnt work that way. Its best
to think of the membership of each
segment as static. Innovations spread
when they evolve to meet the needs
of successive segments.

Early adopters:
Once the benefits start to become
apparent, early adopters leap in. They
are on the lookout for a strategic leap
forward in their lives or businesses
and are quick to make connections
between clever innovations and their
personal needs.

Innovators:
The adoption process begins with a
tiny number of visionary, imaginative
innovators. They often lavish great
time, energy and creativity on
developing new ideas and gadgets.

They love getting an advantage over

their peers and they have time and
money to invest. Theyre often fashion
conscious and love to be seen as
4

A Summary of Diffusion of Innovations

leaders: social prestige is one of their

biggest drivers. Their natural desire to
be trend setters causes the take-off
of an innovation. Early adopters tend
to be more economically successful,
well connected and well informed and
hence more socially respected. Their
seemingly risky plunge into a new
activity sets tongues wagging. Others
watch to see whether they prosper
of fail, and people start talking about
the results. And early adopters like
to talk about their successes. So the
buzz intensifies. What early adopters
say about an innovation determines
its success. The more they crow
and preen, the more likely the new
behaviour or product will be perceived
positively by the majority of a
population.

and majorities formed a continuum.

However most early adopters still
have radically different interests
and needs from most majorities, so
even if theres no real chasm its a
useful mental construct that warns
us against the easy assumption
that one size fits all. Once again,
what makes products or practices
spread is not persuasion. Its the
whether the product or behaviour is
being reinvented to become easier,
simpler, quicker, cheaper, and more
advantageous.
How to work with early adopters:
Offer strong face-to-face support for
a limited number of early adopters to
trial the new idea.
Study the trials carefully to
discover how to make the idea more
convenient, low cost and marketable.

Early adopters are vital for another

reason. They become an independent
test bed, ironing out the chinks and
reinventing the innovation to suit
mainstream needs.

Reward their egos e.g. with media

coverage.

Fortunately early adopters are an

easy audience. They dont need much
persuading because they are on the
lookout for anything that could give
them a social or economic edge.
When you call a public meeting to
discuss energy-saving devices or new
farming methods, theyre the ones
who come along. Theyre the first
people in your block to install a water
tank, mulch their garden, buy laptops
for their kids, or install solar panels.

Promote them as fashion leaders

(beginning with the cultish end of the
media market).
Recruit and train some as peer
educators.
Maintain relationships with regular
feedback.
Early majority:
Assuming the product or behaviour
leaps the chasm, it may eventually
reach majority audiences. Early
majorities are pragmatists,
comfortable with moderately
progressive ideas, but wont act
without solid proof of benefits. They
are followers who are influenced by
mainstream fashions and wary of
fads. They want to hear industry
standard and endorsed by normal,

Some authorities talk about a chasm

between visionary early adopters and
pragmatic majorities.8 They think the
chasm explains why many products
are initially popular with early
adopters but crash and burn before
they reach mass markets. Everett
Rogers disagreed9 with the idea of
a chasm. He thought early adopters
5

A Summary of Diffusion of Innovations

fashions and established standards.

They are often influenced by the fears
and opinions of laggards.

respectable folks.
Majorities are cost sensitive and
risk averse. They are looking for
simple, proven, better ways of doing
what they already do. They require
guaranteed off-the-shelf performance,
minimum disruption, minimum
commitment of time, minimum
learning, and either cost neutrality or
rapid payback periods. And they hate
complexity. They havent got time to
think about your product or project.
Theyre too busy getting the kids to
football and running their businesses.
If they do have spare time theyre not
going to spend it fussing around with
complicated, expensive, inconvenient
products or behaviours. They want to
hear plug-and-play, no sweat or
user-friendly and value for money.

How to work with the late majority:

Focus on promoting social norms
rather than just product benefits:
theyll want to hear that plenty
of other conservative folks like
themselves think its normal or
indispensable.
Keep refining the product to
increase convenience and reduce
costs.
Emphasise the risks of being left
behind.
Respond to criticisms from laggards.
Laggards:
Meanwhile laggards hold out to the
bitter end. They are people who see
a high risk in adopting a particular
product or behaviour. Some of them
are so worried they stay awake all
night, tossing and turning, thinking
up arguments against it. And dont
forget they might be right! Its
possible they are not really not
laggards at all, but innovators of
ideas that are so new they challenge
your paradigms! In the early stages,
where you are focusing on early
adopters, you can probably ignore
the views of laggards, but when you
come to work with late majorities
youll need to address their criticisms,
because late majorities share many
of their fears.

How to work with the early majority:

Offer give-aways or competitions to
stimulate buzz.
Use mainstream advertising and
media stories featuring endorsements
from credible, respected, similar folks.
Lower the entry cost and guarantee
performance.
Redesign to maximise ease and
simplicity.
Cut the red tape: simplify
application forms and instructions.
Provide strong customer service and
support.

How to work with laggards:

Give them high levels of personal
control over when, where, how and
whether they do the new behaviour.

Late majority:
They are conservative pragmatists
who hate risk and are uncomfortable
your new idea. Practically their only
driver is the fear of not fitting in,
hence they will follow mainstream

Maximise their familiarity with new

6

A Summary of Diffusion of Innovations

products or behaviours. Let them

see exactly how other laggards have
successfully adopted the innovation.

most people are majorities about

most things, and only innovators or
laggards about certain specific things.
We wouldnt say John is a laggard,
wed say John is an iPhone laggard
or George Bush snr is a broccoli
laggard.

Each of these adopter personalities

is very different. Its vital to know
which one you are addressing at
a given time. And no, you usually
cant address them all at once. Why?
Because products and behaviours
only mature gradually. The exception
is when you have customized quite
different products or behaviours for
each group. Weight Watchers is an
example. It has a traditional caloriecounting method that suits early
adopters, a points value method
that suits early majorities, and a no
count system for everyone else.

Reading
The standard text is Everett M.
Rogers, Diffusion of Innovations, Fifth
Edition 2003, Free Press, New York.
Its thorough, readable, and strongly
recommended for anyone whos
serious about making change.
Endnotes

Everett M. Rogers, Diffusion of Innovations,

Fifth Edition 2003, Free Press, New York, p221
1

How big is each segment? Rogers

went as far as assigning precise
notional percentages for each
segment:

2
Quoted in Purcell, P. (2004) A quick mod takes
gamers beyond their doom, Sydney Morning
Herald, 23 August
3
Soumerai, S.B. et al (1998) Effect of Local
Medical Opinion Leaders on Quality of Care
for Acute Myocardial Infarction, A randomized
controlled trial, Journal of the American Medical
Association Vol 279, pp1358-1363

Innovators: 2.5%
Early Adopters: 13.5%

4
Hirst, E. (1989) Reaching for 100 percent
participation in a utility conservation programme
The Hood River project, Energy Policy Vol 17(2)
pp155-164

Early majority: 34%

Late majority 34%
Laggards 16%

10

Kelly, J.A. et al (1997) Randomised, controlled,

community-level HIV-prevention intervention for
sexual-risk behaviour amongst homosexual men
in US cities, The Lancet Vol 350, 9090; Health
Module p1500
5

However the 20:60:20 Rule is a

good all-purpose rule of thumb.

When designing a change project

you need to know one vital fact: the
percentage in a given social system
who have already taken up the
innovation. That figure tells you which
segment you are addressing next. It
gives you great insight into how to
design your project and how to pitch
your communications.

Rogers op. cit. p322

See Derek Sivers entertaining Youtube video

on the subject of first followers. Its a delightful
demonstration of diffusion in action: http://
www.youtube.com/watch?v=fW8amMCVAJQ
8
Moore, Geoffrey, A. (1999) Marketing and
Selling High-Tech Products to Mainstream
Customers, Revised edition, HarperCollins, New
York
7

Rogers op. cit. p282

10

Of course, no one is an innovator or

a laggard about all new ideas. That
would be too exhausting. In reality,

ibid. p281

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