NBCWSJ November Poll - Final
NBCWSJ November Poll - Final
NBCWSJ November Poll - Final
NOVEMBER 2016
Interviews: 1282 Likely Voters, including 563 respondents with a cell phone only and
50 respondents reached on a cell phone but who also have a landline.
47 Male
53 Female
Study #161256
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey
Please note: all results are shown as percentages unless otherwise stated.
The margin of error for 1,282 interviews among Likely Voters is 2.73%
Likely Voters defined as voted in either 2012 or 2014 or 18-24 year olds with
self-reported interest in the election of 5 to 10 on a 1-10 scale.
Unless otherwise noted by a +, all previous data shown reflects responses among all adults.
Q2a
For statistical purposes only, would you please tell me how old you are?
(IF REFUSED, ASK:) Well, would you tell me which age group you belong to? (READ LIST) +
Likely
Voters
18-24 ................................................................ 9
25-29 ................................................................ 7
30-34 ................................................................ 7
35-39 ................................................................ 7
40-44 ................................................................ 9
45-49 ................................................................ 9
50-54 ................................................................ 9
55-59 ................................................................12
60-64 ................................................................10
65-69 ................................................................ 7
70-74 ................................................................ 6
75 and over ...........................................................
8
Not sure/refused .................................................
+ Results shown reflect responses among likely voters.
Q2b/c
To ensure that we have a representative sample, would you please tell me whether you are from a Hispanic
or Spanish-speaking background? And again, for statistical purposes only, what is your race--white, black,
Asian, or something else? +
Likely
Voters
White, Non-Hispanic ....................................... 73
Hispanic ...........................................................10
Black ............................................................... 12
Asian ............................................................... 1
Other ............................................................... 3
Not sure/refused ........................................... 1
+ Results shown reflect responses among likely voters.
Q3
Are you currently registered to vote [LANDLINE: at this address; CELL: in (STATE)]? +
Registered ........................................
Not registered ...................................
Not sure ..........................................
Likely
Voters
100
-
All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel things
are off on the wrong track?
11/35/16+
31
62
4
3
Likely Voters
10/1011/111/113/16+
3/12+
2/08+
30
42
11
64
53
76
5
3
10
1
2
3
10/2931/04+
41
47
11
1
Q4B
In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?
Approve ............................................
Disapprove .......................................
Not sure..........................................
11/35/16+
53
44
3
Likely Voters
10/1011/113/16+
3/12+
53
49
44
49
3
2
Likely Voters
11/310/105/16+
13/16+
70
69
7
5
8
9
4
5
2
3
4
4
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
-
Now I'm going to read you the names of several public figures, groups and organizations, and I'd like you to
rate your feelings toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very
negative. If you don't know the name, please just say so. (ALWAYS ASK BARACK OBAMA FIRST, THEN
RANDOMIZE CLINTON-TRUMP-PENCE-KAINE, RANDOMIZE REST)
Barack Obama
Likely Voters
November 3-5, 2016+ ........
October 10-13, 2016+ ........
Hillary Clinton
Likely Voters
November 3-5, 2016+ ........
October 10-13, 2016+ ........
Donald Trump
Likely Voters
November 3-5, 2016+ ........
October 10-13, 2016+ ........
The Democratic Party
Likely Voters
November 3-5, 2016+ ........
October 10-13, 2016+ ........
The Republican Party
Likely Voters
November 3-5, 2016+ ........
October 10-13, 2016+ ........
Michelle Obama
Likely Voters
November 3-5, 2016+* ......
October 10-13, 2016+ ........
James Comey
Likely Voters
November 3-5, 2016+* ......
Elizabeth Warren
Likely Voters
November 3-5, 2016+** .....
The Federal Bureau of
Investigation, or FBI
Likely Voters
November 3-5, 2016+** .....
Neutral
Somewhat
Negative
Very
Negative
Don't Know
Name/
Not Sure
13
11
29
37
15
30
17
21
44
21
20
41
17
16
10
49
14
14
11
52
15
25
17
15
27
16
23
17
17
26
21
22
23
25
17
23
24
26
46
12
14
19
45
14
15
18
11
21
13
11
40
17
11
18
11
21
22
12
26
33
18
Very
Positive
Somewhat
Positive
38
Very
Positive
Somewhat
Positive
14
13
26
35
Neutral
Somewhat
Negative
Very
Negative
Don't Know
Name/
Not Sure
31
33
16
11
11
5
2
3
D/S
30
11
11
-2
-4
-9
-15
-19
-26
Now, I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the presidential election on Tuesday: Are you
absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?
Likely Voters
11/3- 10/105/16+ 13/16+
75
89
3
5
3
3
1
2
17
1
1
-
Q8
If the next election for president were held today, with (ROTATE TOP TWO:) Donald Trump as the
Republican candidate, Hillary Clinton as the Democratic candidate, Gary Johnson the Libertarian candidate,
and Jill Stein the Green Party candidate for whom would you vote?
Likely Voters
11/310/105/16+ 13/16+
40
37
44
48
6
7
2
2
1
1
2
2
1
1
4
2
Q9
And, if the next election for president were held today, with only (ROTATE) Donald Trump and Mike Pence
as the Republican candidates, and Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine as the Democratic candidates, for whom
would you vote?
Likely Voters
11/310/105/16+ 13/16+
43
41
48
51
2
2
1
1
2
3
4
2
How satisfied are you with the choice of candidates for president -- very satisfied, fairly satisfied, not very
satisfied, or not that satisfied? +
Likely
Voters
Very satisfied ................................................................................................
12
Fairly satisfied................................................................................................
28
Not very satisfied ................................................................................................
31
Not that satisfied ................................................................................................
28
Not sure ................................................................................................
1
+ Results shown reflect responses among likely voters.
Nov
2004++
33
33
16
16
2
Nov
2000++
24
44
18
9
5
Nov
1996++
18
33
24
22
3
Nov
1992++
24
37
21
16
2
Nov
1988++
26
36
20
17
1
Q11
And, based on what you have seen, read, or heard over the past week, are you starting to reconsider how
you may vote in the Presidential election, or are you just as certain as you were about your vote as you were
a month ago? +
Likely
Voters
Starting to reconsider ................................................................
5
Just as certain as a month ago ................................................................
90
Have Not Seen/Heard/Read Anything (VOL) ................................ Already voted/Cant change vote (VOL) ................................................................
3
Not sure ................................................................................................
2
+ Results shown reflect responses among likely voters.
Q11a
If the Constitution allowed presidents to be elected to a third term in office, would you consider voting for
Barack Obama in November's presidential election, or not? +1
Likely
Voters
Yes, Consider ................................................................................................
49
No, Not Consider ................................................................................................
50
Not sure ................................................................................................
1
1
34
62
3
1
What is your preference for the outcome of Tuesdays congressional elections -- (ROTATE:) a Congress
controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats?
Republican-controlled Congress .
Democrat-controlled Congress ...
Not sure ....................................
11/35/16+
44
47
9
10/1013/16+
44
47
9
Likely Voters
11/111/13/12+
2/08+
45
36
47
48
8
16
10/2931/04+
43
44
13
Q13
Likely Voters
11/3- 10/105/16+1 13/16+
51
53
40
41
3
1
2
2
1
4
2
Q14
Some people we have spoken with have already filled out their ballot for the Federal election for President,
Senate, Congress and statewide offices being held on Tuesday Have you already cast your ballot in the
election by voting by mail or in person at an early polling location? (DO NOT READ CHOICES:) (IF NOT
YET VOTED, THEN ASK:) And do you plan to vote early - either by mail or in person - or will you vote at the
polls on Election Day? +1
All
Likely
Voters
41
13
19
2
7
32
1
26
Likely Voters
in Early
Voting States
56
18
26
3
9
43
1
-
Q15
And, with the election of the next President, do you expect that the country (ROTATE) will become more
united or will still remain very divided? +
Likely
Voters
Will become more united ................................................................ 23
Will still remain very divided ................................................................
64
Not sure ................................................................................................
13
+ Results shown reflect responses among likely voters.
Do you have confidence that the results of the presidential election will be counted accurately or not? +*
Likely
Voters
Yes ........................................................................... 60
No ............................................................................. 33
Not sure/refused ..................................................... 7
* Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM A).
+ Results shown reflect responses among likely voters.
Q16B
Has this presidential election made you more proud of America, less proud of America, or has it made no
difference to you either way in that sense? +**
Likely
Voters
7
62
28
1
2
Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? "The economic and political systems in the country
are stacked against people like me. +1
Likely
Voters
Agree ........................................................................ 48
Disagree ................................................................
47
Not sure ................................................................
5
1
Q17B
In thinking about the next president that well be electing, which of the following two statements comes
closer to your point of view? (IF "BOTH," ASK:) I understand that you feel that they are both important, but if
you had to choose the ONE statement that comes closer to your point of view, which would you choose?
Statement A: Someone who will bring major changes to the way government operates even if it is not
possible to predict what the changes may be
Statement B: Someone who will bring a steady approach to the way government operates even if it means
fewer changes to how things are now
Likely Voters
11/39/155/16+**
19/16+
Statement A/bring major changes ........................................ 54
50
Statement B/bring a steady approach ................................
43
46
Neither (VOL) ..................................................................... 1
2
Not sure .............................................................................. 2
3
** Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM B).
+ Results shown reflect responses among likely voters.
Generally optimistic...............................................................
Generally pessimistic ............................................................
Uncertain ..............................................................................
Not sure ..............................................................................
+ Results shown reflect responses among likely voters.
Likely
Voters
36
21
42
1
Moving on
Q19
How would you feel if (READ NAME) wins the presidential election--would you say that you feel comfortable
with (him/her) and prepared to support (him/her) as our new president, or not? (ROTATE)
Comfortable
And Prepared
To Support
Not
Comfortable
And Prepared
To Support
Not
Sure
43
54
46
Donald Trump
November 3-5, 2016+ .............................
Hillary Clinton
Not
Comfortable
And Prepared
To Support
Not
Sure
60
62
66
37
34
31
3
4
3
66
65
69
31
31
28
3
4
3
Al Gore
What is your one principal thought about Hillary Clinton as you vote?
SEE VERBATIM RESPONSES
In the election campaign this year, do you think the news media (ROTATE) mostly gave fair and balanced
coverage or mostly tried to influence the elections with their coverage? (IF TRIED TO INFLUENCE, THEN
ASK) And, would you say the news media mostly tried to influence the elections toward (ROTATE) -Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton -- with their coverage? +
Likely
Voters
29
9
44
13
5
Not Sure
67
18
56
32
49
36
48
10
38
44
44
Now I am going to ask you a few questions for statistical purposes only.
QF1b/c A lot of people are unable to get out and vote for many reasons. Did you happen to vote in the November
2012 election for president? (IF YES, ASK:) For whom did you voteBarack Obama, Mitt Romney, or
someone else? +
Likely
Voters
50
35
6
2
7
-
QF1d
Will this year be the first time you have ever voted in a presidential election? +
Likely
Voters
5
3
1
91
QF1e
And did you happen to vote in the 2014 election for U.S. Congress? +
Likely
Voters
Yes, voted ...............................................................
70
No, did not vote .......................................................
25
Not sure ................................................................
5
+ Results shown reflect responses among likely voters.
QF2
Are you currently employed? (IF "CURRENTLY EMPLOYED," ASK:) What type of work do you do?
(RECORD UNDER "6--OTHER.") (IF "NOT CURRENTLY EMPLOYED," ASK:) Are you a student, a stay-athome mom or dad, retired, or unemployed and looking for work? +
Likely
Voters
Currently Employed
Professional, manager .............................
White-collar worker ..................................
Blue-collar worker ....................................
Farmer, rancher .......................................
Not Currently Employed
Student ....................................................
Stay at home mom/dad............................
Retired .....................................................
Unemployed, looking for work..................
Other........................................................
Not sure .................................................
25
19
16
1
3
5
28
3
-
What is the last grade that you completed in school? (DO NOT READ CHOICES.) +
Likely
Voters
1
3
22
19
3
12
24
2
10
3
1
QF4
QF5
Thinking about your general approach to issues, do you consider yourself to be liberal, moderate, or
conservative? (IF "LIBERAL" OR "CONSERVATIVE," ASK:) Do you consider yourself to be very
(liberal/conservative) or somewhat (liberal/conservative)? +
Likely
Voters
11
15
34
18
18
4
QF6a/b Are you a current or retired labor union member? (ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAY "NO" OR
"NOT SURE" IN QF6a.) Is anyone else in your household a current or retired labor union member? +
Likely
Voters
14
8
77
1
QF7a
45
23
1
1
2
12
15
1
QF8
Are you married, widowed, separated, divorced, single and never been married, or are you unmarried and
living with a partner? +
Married .............................................................
Widowed ...........................................................
Separated ........................................................
Divorced ...........................................................
Single/never been married ................................
Unmarried and living with a partner ..................
Refused...........................................................
Likely
Voters
59
6
2
9
16
7
1
QF9
If you added together the yearly income of all the members of your family who were living at home last year,
would the total be less than ten thousand dollars, between ten thousand dollars and twenty thousand
dollars, between twenty thousand dollars and thirty thousand dollars, between thirty thousand dollars and
forty thousand dollars, between forty thousand dollars and fifty thousand dollars, between fifty thousand
dollars and seventy-five thousand dollars, between seventy-five thousand dollars and one hundred thousand
dollars, or would the total be more than that? +
Likely
Voters
Less than $10,000 ............................................... 2
Between $10,000 and $20,000 ........................... 6
Between $20,000 and $30,000 ........................... 8
Between $30,000 and $40,000 ........................... 8
Between $40,000 and $50,000 ........................... 8
Between $50,000 and $75,000 ........................... 17
Between $75,000 and $100,000 ......................... 15
More than $100,000 ............................................ 28
Not sure/refused ................................................. 8
+ Results shown reflect responses among likely voters.