Energy Policy: Daisheng Zhang, Kristin Aunan, Hans Martin Seip, Haakon Vennemo
Energy Policy: Daisheng Zhang, Kristin Aunan, Hans Martin Seip, Haakon Vennemo
Energy Policy: Daisheng Zhang, Kristin Aunan, Hans Martin Seip, Haakon Vennemo
Energy Policy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol
Department of Chemistry, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1033, Blindern, 0315 Oslo, Norway
Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo (CICERO), P.O. Box 1129, Blindern, N-0318 Oslo, Norway
c
Oslo University College, P.O. Box 4, St. Olavs plass, 0130 Oslo, Norway
b
a r t i c l e i n f o
abstract
Article history:
Received 14 September 2010
Accepted 30 March 2011
Available online 7 May 2011
Facing the mounting pressure on energy security and increasing environmental concerns about air
pollution and climate change, the Chinese government set a mandatory goal of 20% reduction of energy
intensity in its 11th Five-Year Plan period (FYP, 20062010). In this paper we use Shanxi province to
illustrate how policies and measures are implemented in practice at a provincial level as a response to
the National FYP issued by the central government. Local policies are described and their effects are
analyzed. We compare reported energy saving achievements with our own estimates and conclude that
the achievements in Shanxi probably have been substantial since the start of the 11th FYP period. The
most important measures taken by provincial and local governments seem to be in the secondary
sector, such as Top-200/Top-1000 program and phasing out outdated technologies. However, Shanxi
has still a long way to go to achieve satisfactory energy use. Further improvement of energy intensity
will require continuing efforts. Although many measures are necessary, improving the energy efciency
in heavy industries and reducing the dependence on these industries should be particularly effective.
& 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords:
China
Energy intensity
Energy policy
1. Introduction
Since 1978, China has experienced rapid industrialization and
a transition from a centrally planned economy toward a marketoriented economy that is increasingly more integrated in the
world. The average gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate
was 10% per year from 1978 to 2008 and China alone accounted
for nearly three-quarters of global primary energy consumption
growth in 2008. The rapid growth has brought Chinas primary
energy consumption up to a level comparable to the so far largest
consumer in the world, USA (BP, 2010). High primary energy
consumption has imposed increasing pressure on natural
resources. According to BP (2010), Chinas proven reserves of coal
at the end of 2009 were 14% of the world total, that of oil and gas
only 1%. There are additional reserves in oil shale, oil sand and
coal-bed methane, but the amounts and potential are uncertain.
Chinas increasing dependence on imports of oil, coal, iron ore and
other key commodities has been well-documented in international media. In 2009, 52% of Chinas oil demand was supplied by
imports (US-EIA, 2010). According to the Reference Scenario
prediction of World Energy Outlook 2009 (IEA, 2009), China will
overtake the United States soon after 2025 to become the worlds
biggest spender on oil and gas imports (in monetary terms).
Energy security is challenged by the increasing demands of
0301-4215/$ - see front matter & 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2011.03.085
1
In 1981, State Planning Commission, State Economic Commission, State
Energy Commission, Ministry of Finance and State Administration of Materials and
Equipment jointly issued the Implementation Measures of Surcharging the Prices on
Surpassing Quota Fuel Consumption; in 1986, Ministry of Finance issued the
4116
be linked to energy consumption and production being underreported in the ve years prior to 2002 (Sinton and Fridley, 2000;
Sinton, 2001; Sinton and Fridley, 2002; Vennemo et al., 2009).
In 1998 there was a major change in the statistical coverage as
compared with 1997. Before 1998, Chinas statistical data on
industrial sub-sectors covered enterprises with independent
accounting systems at or above township level, but since 1998
data covers industrial enterprises above a certain size (see details
in Zhao et al. (2010)). Meanwhile, a campaign to close small
mines for safety, economic, and environmental reasons began in
1998. Reportedly, 23,000 small mines were closed by May 1999
(Sinton and Fridley, 2000). However, there were indications that
many closed mines reopened in secret and that substantial coal
use disappeared from ofcial statistics (Sinton and Fridley, 2002).
China Energy Statistical Yearbook 2010 (NBS, 2011a) revised the
total energy consumption data for 1998 and 1999 in China Energy
Statistical Yearbook 19971999 (NBS, 2000) by an additional 40
and 104 million tonnes, respectively. See the dotted line in Fig. 1
for revised elasticity ratio of energy consumption. The revision
conrms the suspected previous under-reporting, and demonstrates that Chinas energy statistics should be treated with
cautiousness.
This rapid growth in energy use was in sharp contrast with
earlier trends. The goal of a 1517% reduction of energy intensity
from 2000 to 2005 of Chinas 10th Five-Year Special Plan on
Energy Development (NDRC, 2001) was not met. On the contrary,
the energy intensity of production slightly increased from 1.47 to
1.49 tce per 10,000 RMB GDP (2000 prices). According to World
Bank (2008a) and BP (2010), Chinas energy intensity in 2005 on a
PPP basis was 1.5 times higher than that of the world average,
1.62.6 times that in developed countries such as USA, Japan,
Germany, UK and France, and 1.9 and 2.3 times higher than in
India and Brazil, respectively (see Fig. 2).
The shift in growth rates of energy use after 2001 had
profound and unexpected implications for energy markets, and
led to severe shortages in 2003 and subsequent years (Sheehan
and Sun, 2007; Andrews-Speed, 2009; Zhou et al., 2009; Levine
et al., 2009; Lin, 2006). If Chinas energy needs continue to rise
rapidly, it could affect the countrys energy security, and could
become a threat for the local and global environment. Therefore
the Government set ambitious targets regarding energy efciency
for the 11th Five-Year Plan: over the period 20062010, energy
intensity of the economy should be reduced by 20% (from 1.28 to
1.02 tce/10,000 RMB GDP, in 2005 prices), or some 4% per year.
This is the rst time that a quantitative and binding target has
been set for energy efciency, and signals a shift in Chinas
strategic thinking about its long-term economic and energy
development. The 20% energy intensity target also translates into
an annual reduction of over 1.5 billion tonnes of CO2 by 2010
compared to business as usual, making the Chinese effort one of
the most signicant carbon mitigation efforts in the world today
if the country succeeds in reaching the target.
2.2. Shanxi Provincial energy conservation
Shanxi Province, located in northern China, with a population
of about 34 million, is the most important coal base of the
country. In 2005, the base year of 11th FYP, Shanxi produced
554 million tonnes (Mt) of coal, which is about one-fourth of the
national total; 129 billion kWh of electricity, 5% of the national
total; and 80 Mt of coke, more than one-third of the national total
(NBS, 2011b; SBS, 2011).
Similar to the national trend, the energy intensity of Shanxis
regional domestic product (RDP) fell continuously in the period
from 1990 to 2000 with an annual average improvement of 6%.
The elasticity of energy use with respect to RDP was less than
4117
0.3 on average over the period (see Fig. 3). The average growth
rates of energy use and RDP were 3.6% and 10.2%, respectively.
Shanxis energy statistics probably has a similar problem as the
national data. However, the national revisions for Shanxi in
19971999 are not available and thus not indicated in the gure.
Since 2001 also in Shanxi energy use has grown very rapidly.
Over the 10th FYP period (20012005) total energy consumption
grew by 12.8% per annum, while RDP grew by 14.1% per annum.
Especially in 2001 and 2002 the growth was high, when energy
consumption grew by 18.3% and 17.2% and RDP grew by 10.1 and
12.9%, respectively. In 2005, its energy intensity of RDP was
3.01 tce/10,000 RMB, which was 2.4 times higher than the
national average and the fourth highest among the provinces.
Shanxis low energy efciency is linked to the very high share
of heavy industry. Energy consumption in its six largest industries, i.e., coal, chemical, coke, building material, metallurgical,
and electricity, takes up 82% of the total energy consumption in
the province, and its energy intensity of industrial added value
was as high as 4.98 tce/10,000 RMB, which was 2.3 times the
national average and the second highest among the provinces in
2005. The rapid growth and the low efciency of energy consumption pose great pressure on the environment. During the
10th FYP period, Shanxi was the most polluted province and
home to the 3 most polluted cities in China for three consecutive
years (20032005) according to the ranking of the air pollution
index of 113 key cities under national surveillance of environmental protection (MEP, 2003, 2004, 2005).
4118
Table 1
Energy intensity reduction during 11th FYP period in Shanxi and for important cities.
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
11th FYP
Target (%) Achieved (%) Target (%) Achieved (%) Target (%) Achieved (%) Target (%) Achieved (%) Target (%) Achieved (%) Target (%) Achieved (%)b
Shanxi a
Taiyuan
Datong
Yangquan
Changzhi
Jincheng
Shuozhou
Xinzhou
Jinzhong
Linfen
Yuncheng
Luliang
a
b
5.8
8.3
6.4
5.6
5.6
5.8
5.6
5.8
5.6
5.6
5.8
4.3
2.0
2.6
3.2
2.6
1.7
1.2
0.4
2.1
1.8
2.3
2.2
2.5
5.7
7.1
6.3
5.5
5.7
5.7
5.6
5.8
5.6
5.6
5.5
4.3
4.5
6.0
5.8
4.5
6.0
6.5
6.4
5.4
6.5
4.5
4.4
4.5
5.6
6.6
6.2
5.3
5.7
5.6
5.6
5.0
5.6
5.6
5.6
4.4
7.4
8.9
9.4
7.2
8.9
5.6
7.9
9.3
8.5
6.3
8.4
7.2
5.5
6.4
6.0
5.0
5.6
5.5
5.6
4.4
5.6
5.6
5.7
4.4
5.7
6.7
7.1
8.6
8.1
5.7
6.0
7.4
7.1
5.6
9.2
5.6
5.3
6.1
5.5
5.0
5.5
5.3
5.6
4.0
5.6
5.6
5.5
4.4
25
30
27
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
20
18.3
22.3
23.1
21.1
22.6
17.8
19.3
22.2
22.0
17.5
18.8
18.4
New disaggregating scheme after adjustment of the target of 25% reduction to 22% is not available.
Aggregated rate for the rst four years.
Table 2
Disaggregating scheme of provincial energy-saving targets for sectors.
11th FYP
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Target (%)
Share (%)a
Target (%)
Target (%)
Target (%)
Target (%)
Target (%)
25
15
100
1.0
5.8
3.2
5.7
3.2
5.6
3.2
5.5
3.2
5.3
3.2
Secondary industry
Industry
Coal
Metallurgy
Power
Coke
Chemical
Building material
Construction
New
Existing
27
28
25
26
20
32
28
25
89.7
89.1
11.3
30.9
9.7
11.3
11.5
7.0
6.3
6.6
2.0
6.1
4.4
8.2
8.0
2.0
6.2
6.5
5.1
5.8
4.4
8.5
7.0
3.0
6.1
6.4
5.4
6.1
4.4
7.9
6.0
5.0
6.0
6.3
6.8
6.1
4.3
6.5
4.0
8.8
5.9
6.0
8.5
6.1
4.3
6.0
3.0
9.0
Z 50b
Z 30c
Tertiary
Transportation
Commercial sector
Government Dept.
Residential sector
20
20
15
15
15
5.0
3.5
0.8
0.8
4.2
4.4
4.4
3.2
3.2
3.2
4.4
4.4
3.2
3.2
3.2
4.4
4.4
3.2
3.2
3.2
4.3
4.3
3.2
3.2
3.2
4.3
4.3
3.2
3.2
3.2
Whole province
Primary industry
a
b
c
targets were recalculated to: 5.6% for 2007, 6.6% for 2008, 7.0% for
2009 and 7.1% for 2010 (compare Table 1).
In order to reach the targets, a series of specic measures to
reduce energy intensity were detailed in the Work Plan. These
measures include:
4119
4120
4121
Table 3
Energy saved compared to baseline energy consumption in China (Mtce).
Indicator
Unit
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Mtce
tce/10000 RMB GDP
billion RMB
tce/10000 RMB GDP
Mtce
Mtce
2360
1.276
18,494
1.276
2360
0
2587
1.241
20,838
1.276
2659
72
2805
1.179
23,789
1.276
3036
231
2914
1.117
26,081
1.276
3328
414
3066
1.076
28,506
1.276
3638
571
Note: data of reported energy consumption and reported GDP in 2005 price are from NBS, 2011b; energy intensity is derived from both data above.
growth rates of production in metallurgy, chemical and equipment manufacturing were more than 40% higher, compared to the
same period in 2009. Corresponding gures for coke making and
electricity generation were 32% and 23%. Driven by this strong
increasing trend, Shanxis industrial energy consumption
increased 31% and electricity intensity of RDP increased 8%
compared to the same period in the previous year. In order to
curb the unhealthy development, Shanxi further tightened the
implementation of the differential electricity pricing policy
described in Appendix B3 by increasing the price differential for
restricted enterprises from 0.05 to 0.1 RMB/kWh and for the
to-be-eliminated from 0.2 to 0.3 RMB/kWh.
Table 4
Energy saved by sectors compared to baseline energy consumption in Shanxi.
Unit: Mtce.
Sector/year
2006
2007
2008
2009
Sum
Primary sector
Secondary sector (industry)
Secondary sector (construction)
Tertiary sector
Residential sectora
Total
0.37
6.29
0.01
0.08
0.94
6.95
0.44
17.34
0.03
0.51
2.06
20.38
2.60
32.67
0.21
1.90
1.24
34.4
1.48
27.65
0.18
1.65
0.51
27.15
4.15
83.95
0.01
2.96
3.73
88.88
a
Residential sector energy saving is calculated from per capita disposable income
and per capita energy use in this sector compared to the baseline (2005) values.
4122
Table 5
Structure of Shanxis economy (20052009) and energy intensities in 2005.
2005 energy
intensity
(tce/10000RMB)
Primary
Secondary industry
Secondary construction
Tertiary
Residential
1.14
4.87
0.35
0.40
NA
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
6.3
50.7
5.6
37.4
NA
5.1
52.7
5.6
36.6
NA
4.7
54.8
5.2
35.3
NA
7.2
54.3
4.9
33.6
NA
6.5
47.8
6.5
39.2
NA
5.3. Discussion
Three different estimates of energy saving in Shanxi during the
period 20062009 are given in this paper. The assumptions about
energy intensities in the baseline are crucial for the estimates. In
the rst estimate we assume a baseline where the energy intensity
in each sector is kept constant at the 2005 level throughout the
11th FYP period (see Table 4); in the second we assume a baseline
where the overall energy intensity is kept constant at 2005 level in
Shanxi throughout the 11th FYP period; the third is the ofcially
reported energy saving, presumably obtained assuming a slight
reduction in energy intensity during the period (see Table 6). It is
subjective which method to choose. The second method would be
appropriate if there were no changes in the economic structure.
Since this is not the case, we think the rst method is more
informative, since it takes into account that sectoral shifts
actually have taken place (see Table 5).
In spite of the differences between the alternative estimates,
the energy saving and energy intensity reduction achievements in
Shanxi probably have been substantial in the rst four years of
the 11th ve year planning period. The fact that energy efciency
is very high on the policy agenda of Chinas governments at all
levels, is demonstrated by the variety of policies being implemented. The energy data available indicate that these policies
have resulted in substantial improvements in energy intensity.
In Shanxi, the governments decision to focus on those sectors,
which yield the greatest immediate impact seems to be the main
reason for the achievements. Shanxi government focused on the
industrial sector through implementing Top-200 Program and
phasing out obsolete production capacity, complemented by
incentive nancial policies. According to reported energy savings,
the Top-200 Program contributed 63% of the total energy savings,
and according to our estimate (Table E3 in Appendix E) phasing
out outdated capacity contributed 30% (Table 6). To achieve this,
Shanxi provincial government allocated increasing funds for
energy efciency improvements mainly in this sector, starting at
4 million RMB in 2006 increasing to 900 million in 2008. Funds
which reached 260 million RMB for the same purpose were also
allocated from municipal governments in 2008. To further
improve the progress, in July 2009, Shanxi Energy Conservation
Leading Group Ofce issued The Promotion Plan on Major Energy
Saving Projects in 2009 and 2010 including more than 1000
energy saving projects with total investment of more than
62 billion RMB and a total of 18 Mtce expected energy saving
when nished. Through implementing a series of policies and
measures, the energy intensity of secondary industry added value
in Shanxi declined from 4.98 tce/10,000 RMB in 2005 to 4.07 in
2009, which is 18.3% reduction (NBS, 2011b). In general the
energy intensity decreased more in Shanxi than nationally,
although from a worse starting point. In 2009, Top-200 program
was further expanded to be Top-1000 and estimated to save
additional 11 Mtce in the last two years of 11th FYP period.
In 2010, further 140 enterprises with outdated technology in
Table 6
Energy savings in Shanxi, 20062009. Unit: Mtce.
20062009
a
Reported total
energy savingsa
Estimated energy
savings from social
eldd
30
19
SPG, 2010.
SPEIC, 2010, 2009, 2008.
c
Appendix E.
d
Derived from the total minus energy savings from other two parts.
b
non-ferrous industry, steel and iron industry, and cement industry should be phased out.
Meanwhile, steps have also been taken to save energy in the
social eld, even though the energy consumption in the social
eld, which includes contribution from several sectors, is only
15% of the total. Through implementation of key projects and
actions targeting the population in general, achievements in
energy conservation in the social elds were signicant and
contributed 7% of the total reported achievements according to
Table 6. The largest contribution is from residential sector.
The potential annual energy saving of 3.9 Mtce is estimated by
increasing the use of district heating and removing more than
10,000 smaller coal-red boilers and thus reducing average heatsupply energy intensity from 90 to 40 kg/GJ. Energy saving in
buildings and energy saving in villages are also addressed. Further
details are given in Appendix F.
Policy implementation is the most important issue. It is of
great signicance that the energy intensity target in the 11th FYP,
as opposed to previous FYPs, is dened as compulsory, i.e. it is a
mandatory target that the governments at both the central and
local levels are responsible for achieving. Also, the fact that
achievement of the target is tied to a persons political career by
a personal penalty and reward system for governmental ofcials
seems to be effective. Meanwhile, the economic incentive policies
likely have great inuence on energy conservation. In the current
paper we are not able to explicitly quantify how individual
policies and measures have contributed to energy saving in
Shanxi. However, we have used the available sectoral data in
combination with information about the implemented policies
and measures to suggest what may have been of most
importance.
The World Bank Mid-term Evaluation of Chinas 11th FYP (World
Bank, 2008b) attributed the progress achieved so far to several key
factors, which also apply to Shanxi. These include a high level of
political commitment, generally improved administrative capacity
to rapidly roll out new initiatives, strong public support for the
objectives, the adjusted accountability system that links implementation to performance assessment of local ofcials, and increased
central funding. The policy measures introduced were described as
comprehensive and relevant to the objectives.
For further reduction of energy intensity in a long run, we
suggest the following issues should be addressed:
(1) Energy intensity of RDP in Shanxi is still high. Even though
great efforts have been devoted to improve it, the energy
intensity in 2009, 2.46 tce/10,000 RMB GDP, was more than
twice the national average, 1.08 tce/10,000 RMB GDP. Clearly
there is a need for strengthening the energy intensity goal in
the 12th FYP and beyond.
(2) While Shanxi has taken steps to close small, inefcient industrial facilities, industrial structure adjustments towards higher
value-adding manufacturing as well as to service industries,
have had limited success to date. The share of secondary
industry in the provincial economy grew steadily in the period
20052007, but has decreased somewhat the two last years (see
Table 5). The share of tertiary industry, which is less energy
intensive, was slightly higher in 2009 than in 2005. However,
with the economic recovery, the situation may become worse.
According to the newest update of social and economic development in Shanxi in the rst quarter of 2010, the added value of
secondary industry increased 27.8%, while, primary and tertiary
industries increased only 6.7% and 11.3%, respectively, compared to the same period in 2009.
(3) Compared to an estimated 72 Mtce energy saved in the rst four
years of 11th FYP using the calculation method where we
assume both a constant 2005 energy intensity and a constant
4123
Acknowledgments
Important comments to our manuscript by Thorjrn Larssen
from Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA) and Taoyuan
Wei from Center for International Climate and Environmental
Research-Oslo (CICERO) are gratefully acknowledged.
The authors would also like to express their gratitude to the
anonymous reviewer for remarks and suggestions that improved
this paper signicantly.
References
Andrews-Speed, P., 2009. Chinas on-going energy efciency drive: origins,
progress, and prospects. Energy Policy 37 (4), 13311344.
British Petroleum (BP), 2010. BP Statistical Review of World Energy. BP, London.
4124
Economy, E.C, 2007. The great leap backwards. Foreign Affairs. Available at
/http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20070901faessay86503/elizabeth-c-economy/thegreat-leap-backward.htmlS (accessed January 17, 2009).
Fu, B.J., Zhuang, X.L., Jiang, G.B., Shi, J.B., Lu, Y.H., 2007. Feature: environmental
problems and challenges in China. Environmental Science & Technology 41
(22), 75977602.
Gan, L., 1998. Energy development and environmental constraints in China. Energy
Policy 26 (2), 119128.
International Energy Agency (IEA), 2009. World Energy Outlook 2009. IEA.
Levine, M.D., Price, L., Zhou, N., Fridley, D., Aden, N., Lu, H., McNeil, M., Zheng, N.,
Qin, Y., 2010. Assessment of Chinas Energy-Saving and Emission-Reduction
Accomplishments and Opportunities During the 11th Five Year Plan. LBNL3385E. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California.
Levine, M.D., Zhou, N., Price, L., 2009. The Greening of the Middle Kingdom: The
Story of Energy Efciency in China. LBNL-2413E. Lawrence Berkeley National
Laboratory, Berkeley, California.
Lin, J., Zhou, N., Levine, M.D., Fridley, D., 2006. Achieving Chinas Target for Energy
Intensity Reduction in 2010: An Exploration of Recent Trends and Possible
Future Scenarios. LBNL-61800. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California.
Lin, J., Zhou, N., Levine, M.D., Fridley, D., 2008. Taking out 1 billion tons of CO2: the
magic of Chinas 11th Five-Year Plan? Energy Policy 36, 954970.
Ma, J.T., 2009. Tasks of 2nd National Economic Census basically completed, important
achievements gained. State Council News Conference. Beijing. Available at
/http://www.stats.gov.cn/was40/gjtjj_detail.jsp?channelid=3790&record=49S
(accessed March 11, 2010) (in Chinese).
Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP), 2007. China National Environmental
Protection Plan in the Eleventh Five-Years (20062010). MEP. Available at
/http://www.mep.gov.cn/plan/hjgh/sywgh/S (accessed May 29, 2009) (in
Chinese).
Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP), 2005. Annual Report on Environmental Management and Comprehensive Improvement in Key National
Environmental Protection Cities. MEP (in Chinese).
Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP), 2004. Annual Report on Environmental Management and Comprehensive Improvement in Key National
Environmental Protection Cities. MEP (in Chinese).
Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP), 2003. Annual Report on Environmental Management and Comprehensive Improvement in Key National
Environmental Protection Cities. MEP (in Chinese).
National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), 2011a. China Energy Statistical Yearbook 2010.
NBS, Beijing.
National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), 2011b. China Statistical Yearbook 2010. NBS,
Beijing.
National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), 2000. China Energy Statistical Yearbook
19971999. NBS, Beijing.
National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), 2010. Statistical Communiques on Chinas
2009 National Economic and Social Development. NBS, Beijing (in Chinese).
National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), 2009. Statistical Communiques on Chinas
2008 National Economic and Social Development. NBS, Beijing (in Chinese).
National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), 2008. Statistical Communiques on Chinas
2007 National Economic and Social Development. NBS, Beijing (in Chinese).
National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), 2007. Statistical Communiques on Chinas
2006 National Economic and Social Development. NBS, Beijing (in Chinese).