Confronting the Islamic State

Understanding the Strengths and

Vulnerabilities of ISIS
W. Andrew Terrill
Abstract: The so-called Islamic State has emerged as a major force
in the struggle for the future of Syria and Iraq with a worldview that
is deeply at odds with that of the United States and its allies. In this
struggle, US military and intelligence personnel must analyze the nature of this organization continuously, seeking ways to overcome its
strengths and exploit its weaknesses. A discussion of such strengths
and weaknesses is provided here while acknowledging constant adjustment is necessary as the Islamic State evolves.

he organization calling itself the Islamic State (IS; also widely

known by the older names of ISIL or ISIS, and the Arabic
acronym Daish) has emerged as a major force in the struggle for
the future of Syria and Iraq.1 ISs rise to world attention resulted from its
capture of large areas of both countries since early 2014. The organization became especially prominent following its June 2014 lightning-swift
military advance over northern Iraq, where it encountered an abysmally
low level of government resistance.2 This catastrophe prompted an
international re-examination of Iraqs corrupt and sectarian government
and the need to overcome the deeply polarizing legacy of Prime Minister
Nouri al-Maliki. The Iraqi Parliament was also shaken by the military
disaster, and came under international and domestic pressure to find
new leadership. Parliament correspondingly removed Maliki from his
position as prime minister, and appointed him to a largely ceremonial
post as one of Iraqs vice presidents.3 The United States also intensified military assistance to both the Iraqi government and Iraqs Kurdish
Regional Government and began a program of ongoing tactical airstrikes
to contain and help roll back the IS advance in Iraq. Additionally, 1,600
US service members were sent to Iraq to serve as military advisors, intelligence analysts, and other needed specialists.4 Later, a US-led coalition
bombed targets in Syria.
Although IS forces did not face a serious challenge from the Iraqi
military in the June offensive, the organization has fought a variety of
1 The older names of ISIL and ISIS refer to the Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria.
The Arabic word sham is translated in English as Syria and more literally as Greater Syria or the
Levant. Daish is an Arabic acronym that sounds like the vernacular Syrian verb for to trample upon.
Unsurprisingly IS members do not like to be referred to as Daish.
2 International Crisis Group, Iraqs Jihadi Jack-in-the-box, Policy Briefing Number 38 (Brussels,
Belgium: ICG, 2014), 3.
3 Associated Press, Iraqi parliament approves new partial Cabinet, Jordan Times, September
8, 2014.
4 Craig Whitlock, Dempsey raises possibility of involving U.S. combat troops in fight against
the Islamic State, Washington Post, September 16, 2014, A-1.

W. Andrew Terrill, Ph.D.

is a research professor
at the Strategic Studies
Institute of the US
Army War College. He
specializes in Middle
East security issues.

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Parameters 44(3) Autumn 2014

more determined adversaries throughout its existence. IS military forces

have performed well in confrontations with Iraqi Kurds, Iraqs Iraniantrained Shiite militias, Syrian government forces, the al-Qaeda affiliated
al-Nusra Front, and other Syrian rebels. Eventually, it emerged as the
dominant resistance group in Syria after demonstrating willingness to
inflict and accept significant casualties in combat with a variety of opponents including the relatively well-armed Assad government forces. IS
military victories in both Syria and Iraq have allowed the organization to
seize a combined area of Syria and Iraq equivalent to the size of Jordan,
containing about 6 million people.5
The emergence of the IS threat and its role in both Syria and Iraq
has presented new challenges for the United States, Iraq, and their allies.
An ongoing and evolving understanding of IS strengths and weaknesses
is therefore necessary to meet American and Iraqi goals of containing, degrading, and ultimately destroying this organization as well as
working with allies to develop a comprehensive strategy to meet these
goals. Iraqi policy-makers, US intelligence analysts, military advisors to
the Iraqis, and others will need to be especially attentive to IS to find
military, political, economic, and information campaign vulnerabilities
capable of being be exploited and enemy strengths to guard against and
neutralize.

The Rise of the Islamic State

The original predecessor of IS was Jamaat al-Tawhid wal Jihad, which

was formed in the terrorist training camps of western Afghanistan and
relocated to Iraq in 2003. This organization rose to prominence waging
war against US military forces in Iraq under fugitive Jordanian terrorist,
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. In October 2004, Zarqawi swore allegiance to
al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, after which the organization was
consistently referred to as al-Qaeda in Iraq.6 As al-Qaedas emir in Iraq,
Zarqawi paid limited attention to bin Ladens guidance, often irritating
the al-Qaeda leader and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri. In contrast to
the two al-Qaeda leaders, Zarqawi did not curb his brutality against
Shiite civilians in an effort to improve al-Qaedas image with Muslims
worldwide. Instead, he blatantly attacked Iraqs Shiite citizens and
institutions.7 In a captured letter he called the Shiites, the insurmountable obstacle, the prowling serpent, the crafty, evil scorpion, the enemy
lying in wait and biting poison.8 From outside Iraq, Zawahiri sought
to refocus Zarqawi solely on killing US forces and their Iraq allies, but
was unable to do so.9 Zarqawi was later killed in a US airstrike on June
7, 2006, but the anti-Shiite nature of his organization never changed.

5 Two Arab countries fall apart; The Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria, Economist, June
14, 2004, 41.
6 The literal name of al-Qaeda in Iraq is al-Qaeda jihad organization in the Land of the Two
Rivers. Ahmed S. Hashim, Insurgency and Counter-Insurgency in Iraq (Ithaca, NY: Cornel University
Press, 2006), 144.
7 Hashim, 192.
8 Letter Signed by Zarqawi, Seized in Iraq in 2004, in Jean-Charles Brisard, Zarqawi: The New
Face of Al-Qaeda (New York: Other Press, 2005), 235.
9 Nelly Lahoud and Muhammad al-Ubaydi, The War of Jihadists Against Jihadists in Syria,
West Point Counterterrorism Center Sentinel 7, no. 3 (March 2014): 2.

Confronting the Islamic State

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15

In January 2006, al-Qaeda in Iraq changed its name to the Islamic

State in Iraq (ISI) after merging with several smaller groups.10 About
this time, the United States and Iraq implemented new anti-insurgency
measures, including the establishment of US-funded anti-al-Qaeda militias known as the Sahwa or Awakening Groups, which were especially
prominent in Sunni areas. As the Sahwa gained momentum, ISI suffered
a number of serious setbacks in combat with US and Sahwa troops and
was marginalized in Iraq by 2011.11 The organization saved itself from
extinction by fleeing to Syria, which had been engulfed in civil war since
April 2011. ISI reconstituted itself in Syria after recruiting a number
of foreign fighters and re-emerged in Iraq by 2013 after Iraqi Prime
Minister Maliki, had defunded and disbanded the Sunni militias.12 By
then, Maliki had sidelined Iraqs Sunni political leadership and consolidated an Iraqi special relationship with Iran.13
In addition to its activities in Iraq, ISI emerged as an important
fighting force in Syria in 2013, two years after the civil war began. At
this point, ISI changed its name to Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant
(ISIL) in order to reflect its interests in both Iraq and Syria. Some of
Syrias armed Islamist opposition initially welcomed ISIL support, but
its extraordinary brutality and struggle to dominate the opposition soon
produced a substantial backlash among other anti-government groups.
ISIL leadership publicly claimed to have established authority over,
and correspondingly absorbed, the large and powerful al-Nusra Front,
al-Qaedas major affiliate already fighting in Syria. Al-Nusra leaders
responded they had not been consulted on a merger and would not
submit to ISIL authority.14 While the ideology of ISIL and the al-Nusra
Front are close, these groups are not the natural allies they might initially
appear to be. The al-Nusra Front and its leadership are dominated by
Syrian fighters who view their first priority as the defeat of the Assad
regime. ISIL (later IS) has a stronger Iraqi and international leadership,
and is more oriented to a global agenda than its rival.15
In the struggle between the two jihadi organizations, the al-Qaeda
leadership, by then under Zawahiri, came down squarely on the side of
al-Nusra Front and ordered ISIL to confine its military activities to Iraq
stating, the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant will be abolished.16
Predictably, for anyone but Zawahiri, ISIL refused to accept this judgment.17 In January 2014, serious infighting was provoked by ISIL against
the al-Nusra Front in Syrias Raqqa, Idlib, and Aleppo provinces with
significant losses on both sides.18 On February 2, 2014, the problems
10 Ezzeldeen Khalil, Partners to Foes: al-Qaeda-ISIL Split Worsens Civil Conflict in Syria,
Janes Intelligence Review, May 29, 2014.
11 On the development of these groups see Peter R. Mansoor, Surge: My Journey with General
David Petraeus and the Remaking of the Iraq War (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2013), especially
chapter 5.
12 Anthony H. Cordesman and Sam Khazai, Iraq in Crisis (New York: Rowman & Littlefield,
2014), 96-114.
13 International Crisis Group, Make or Break: Iraqs Sunnis and the State (Brussels, Belgium: August
14, 2013), 15-23.
14 Lahoud and al-Ubaydi, 2.
15 Liz Sly, Al-Qaeda Disavows Ties to Hard-line Iraqi-Syrian Affiliate Fighting Assad,
Washington Post, February 3, 2014, A-7.
16 Al-Qaeda Leader Scraps Syria, Iraq Branch Merger, Daily Star (Beirut), June 19, 2013.
17 ISIS Slams Zawahiri, Refuses to Quit Syria, Daily Star, May 13, 2014.
18 Diaa Hadid, Radical Syria Rebel Pleads for Infighting to Stop, Daily Star, January 7, 2014.

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Parameters 44(3) Autumn 2014

between al-Qaeda and ISIL reached a crisis point when Zawahiri released
a statement disassociating his organization from ISIL, thus expelling
the organization from al-Qaeda.19 Despite this affront, ISIL expanded
its power by seizing territory already under the control of the al-Nusra
Front and other rebel groups.20 In late June 2014, the usually reliable
Syrian Observatory for Human Rights stated it had documented up to
7,000 deaths in rebel infighting chiefly between ISIL and the al-Nusra
front and its allies.21 This casualty estimate also included a number of
civilians who were killed in the crossfire.
In Iraq, ISILs initial effort to capture territory was directed at the
Sunni cities of Ramadi and Fallujah. The organization established
fairly solid control of Fallujah, but maintained only a limited presence
in Ramadi. 22 As noted earlier, ISIL then electrified the world with its
northern offensive, which gave the organization its greatest victory. All
four Iraqi army divisions stationed in the north collapsed instantly when
faced with the ISIL assaults, and ISIL seized Iraqs second largest city,
Mosul.23 The militants then claimed to be planning to seize Baghdad,
though this threat was never considered credible. At the time, ISIL had
only 3,000-5,000 fighters in Iraq (with about the same number of allied
Sunni forces), and Baghdad is a city of over 7 million people, the majority of whom are hostile Shiites with their own militias.24 Following the
rout of Iraqi security forces, ISIL declared an Islamic Caliphate in the
area it controlled, and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the ISIL leader since April
2010, was declared caliph and the leader of Muslims everywhere.25
To underscore this claim, ISIL changed its name to the Islamic State
(IS), reflecting its enhanced ambitions beyond the Levant and Iraq. This
statement asserted that IS was now the only legitimate authority in the
Muslim world and its authority superseded and replaced the leadership
of each Muslim country. This assertion also challenged al-Qaeda leadership of the jihadi movement.

Strengths

The central component of IS success is its ability to tap into Sunni

Arab fears and resentment of Shiite leadership in Iraq and Alawite leadership in Syria.26 Identity politics in Syria have dominated the country
since its establishment after World War I and especially since the first
Assad regime came to power in 1970.27 Sectarian identity politics has
been the dominant factor in Iraqi society since 2003, after gaining
19 Sly, A-7.
20 Tim Arango and Kareem Fahim, Rebels Fast Strike in Iraq was Years in the Making, New
York Times, June 15, 2014, A-1.
21 Associated Press, Sunni Jihadi Group Expels Rivals from Syrian City, Washington Post, July
14, 2014. Note that the Syrian Observatory has a network of activists throughout the country.
22 Michael Knights, The ISILs Stand in the Ramdi-Falluja Corridor, West Point Counter
Terrorism Center Sentinel 7, no. 5 (May 2014): 8.
23 Farnaz Fassihi; A. Ali Tamer, El-Ghobashy, Iraq Scrambles to Defend Baghdad---Iraq Says
Forces Hoin Battle against Advancing Sunni Insurgents Threatening Capital, Holy Cities, Wall Street
Journal, June 13, 2014, A-1.
24 Anthony H. Cordesman, Key Factors Shaping the Presidents Islamic State Speech, Burke
Chair Paper, September 9, 2014. 1-3.
25 AFP, Jihadists Fighting in Syria, Iraq Declare Caliphate, Jordan Times, June 29, 2014.
26 Alawites are a minority sect of Islam, usually identified with Shiite Islam.
27 See Nikolaos van Dam, The Struggle for Power in Syria (London: I.B. Tauris Publishers, 1996),
especially chapter 9.

Confronting the Islamic State

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salience from 1991 to 2003 during the era of sanctions.28 Sunni Iraqis
often viewed post-Saddam policies such as de-Baathification and disbanding the Iraqi Army as a mechanism to break Sunni political power
in Iraq and reduce Sunni Arabs to second class citizens. Many Iraqi
Sunnis referred to de-Baathification as de-Sunnization, viewing the
entire effort as a form of revenge and a effort to bar them from power
indefinitely.29
US military and civilian leaders quickly came to view deBaathification as a mistake due to its broad scope, but Iraqs Shiite-led
government continued to embrace it after assuming power. While the
US government created the de-Baathification program, it could not end
or modify it by this time, and it was often used by Shiites within the
government as an instrument to dominate Sunni Arabs.30 In 2008, the
Justice and Accountability Law replaced the original de-Baathification
law, but was also used to repress Iraqi Sunnis.31 Shiite Iraqis, for their
part, were infuriated by an unrelenting series of car bombs and suicide
attacks directed against Shiite religious sites and pilgrims.32 The polarization created by this situation created an ideal opening for IS that will
not be rolled back easily.
IS also has strong financial reserves and may be entirely selffinancing at this point.33 This financial independence is the result of an
ongoing strategy to reduce or eliminate dependence on private foreign
donors, who may face government crackdowns on efforts to transfer
funds. To achieve financial self-sufficiency, IS has focused on seizing
loot from conquered areas, imposing taxes within its areas of control
and influence, and smuggling oil from facilities it controls in Syria and
Iraq. Oil smuggling is especially lucrative, but IS may be able to sustain
itself even if this revenue stream is disrupted.34 US and allied efforts
to crack down on IS smuggling, in some cases bombing oil assets, are
useful but should not be regarded as a panacea.35
IS military operations benefit from the expertise of their officials
who previously served as officers or technicians with the old Iraqi Army
disbanded in 2003.36 These individuals have a strong sense of grievance
against both the United States and the Iraqi government, and al-Qaeda
in Iraq (later ISIL then IS) allowed some of them to join that organization after they repented their former involvement with Saddam
Husseins secular Baathist regime and pledged loyalty (baya) to IS.37
28 Fanar Haddad, Sectarianism in Iraq: Antagonistic Visions of Unity (New York: Columbia
University Press, 2011), 89-116.
29 Hashim, 192-193.
30 W. Andrew Terrill, Lessons of the Iraqi De-Baathificaiton Program for Iraqs Future and the Arab
Revolutions (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, 2012), 56-60.
31 Terrill, 48-50.
32 Haddad, 184.
33 Tim Arango and Eric Schmitt, US Actions in Iraq Fueled Rise of a Rebel, New York Times,
August 11, 2014, A-1.
34 Steven Mufson, Islamic State Draws on Oil Assets for Funds Fuel, Washington Post,
September 16, 2014., A-12.
35 Helene Cooper and Anne Barnard, Warplanes Blast Militants Refineries in Syria, Targeting
a Source of Cash, New York Times, September 26, 2014, A-1.
36 Ben Hubbard and Eric Schmitt, Trained in Army, ISIS Leaders Use Their Expertise, New
York Times, August 28, 2014, A-1.
37 Michael Knights, ISILs Political-Military Power in Iraq, West Point Counter Terrorism Center
Sentinel 7, no. 8 (August 2014): 3.

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Parameters 44(3) Autumn 2014

IS also has the tremendous advantage of being able to move back and
forth between Syria and Iraq. If defeated in Iraq, the organization can
potentially re-group in Syria and attack into Iraq at a later time, unless
defeated or contained in Syria. Comprehensively defeating IS in Syria
will be significantly more difficult for the US-led coalition due to the
lack of a strong partner on the ground.
Another advantage for IS is that it is relatively well-armed and
equipped. In the aftermath of its victory in northern Iraq, the organization seized massive amounts of modern Iraqi military equipment,
acquired by the Baghdad government from the United States. While
an exact inventory is not available, 4 infantry divisions and supporting troops fled the battle in June 2014, leaving behind almost all of
their weapons, equipment, and supplies including artillery, tanks, and a
variety of other military vehicles. It is unclear how long IS will be able
to use and maintain American tanks, although it is possible IS ex-regime
soldiers (or those trained by them) will be able to keep some of them in
use. In Syria, IS has captured large stocks of weapons and equipment
from Assad government forces, including older Russian T-55 tanks.38
IS forces may also have been able to seize advanced Man Portable Air
Defense systems (MANPADs) from one of the major Syrian bases that
it has overrun.39 Prior to these seizures, IS used weapons from the
previous insurgency in Iraq and weapons supplied directly or purchased
with funds from supporters throughout the region.
IS also had considerable opportunity to expand and strengthen itself
during its initial time in Syria. The Assad regime allowed IS to develop
its military strength in Syria with a de facto truce seemingly in effect in
2013 and into 2014.40 At this time, Assads priority was to attack more
moderate and respectable opposition forces and the al-Nusra Front
in the belief that the West would never allow IS to come to power.
Assad appeared to hope the West would be forced to acquiesce, or even
support, the continuation of his regime. The Syrian regime also chose
not to attack IS, while it was attacking other rebel forces to seize territory they controlled, with heavy casualties on all sides. The militants
responded to this restraint by avoiding conflict with the Syrian military,
instead consolidating their hold over territory previously controlled by
other opposition militias. This expedient approach dramatically ended
in summer 2014, when IS attacked government forces in an effort to
seize territory and military infrastructure controlled by the regime.41
By this time, IS was a formidable fighting force. In August, its forces
captured the Tabaqa airfield in northern Syria in a serious setback for
the Assad regime, involving large-scale casualties on both sides. This air
force complex served as a basing facility for a number of ground forces
as well as several squadrons of combat aircraft.42
38 Michael R Gordon and Helene Cooper, U.S. General Says Raid Syria is Key to Halting ISIS,
New York Times, August 22, 2014.
39 Thomas Gibbons-Neff, Islamic State Might Have Taken Advanced MANPADS from
Syrian Airfield, Washington Post, August 25, 2014, A-1.
40 David Blair, Why Syrian Leader Secretly Stoked the Crisis, Daily Telegraph, August 23,
2014, 6.
41 The Next War against Global Jihadism; Confronting the Islamic State, Economist, September
13, 2014, 53.
42 Ryan Lucas, Jihadis Capture Major Syrian Air Base in Northeast, Daily Star, August 24,
2014.

Confronting the Islamic State

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19

IS also has strong recruiting advantages conferred by its spectacular

military successes against the Iraqi army and its ability to seize and retain
significant territory and declare a caliphate. IS began the lightning
offensive in northern Iraq with an estimated total deployed strength of
3,000 to 5,000 fighters, now expanded to perhaps over 30,000, although
only about a third are fully trained.43 To some extent this expansion is
due to IS absorbing smaller radical groups in the area it now controls
and because it has the resources to pay new recruits, many of whom are
destitute and have few options.44 Perhaps more importantly, this expansion is also a result of IS propaganda successes in trumpeting victories
in Syria and Iraq through its own elaborate and professional media.45
Finally, IS benefits from the mistakes and abuses of its enemies,
particularly the Iraqi governments long history of anti-Sunni discrimination and brutality. While many Sunni Iraqis are appalled by
IS brutality, they are also deeply afraid of Shiite militias fighting as
auxiliaries with the Iraqi Army. The most important of these militias
are Iranian-trained and receive ongoing funding from Tehran through
its al-Quds Force.46 During the Iraq war of 2003-2011, these militias
established a reputation for torturing and killing Sunni Muslims as part
of the continuing violence. Numerous witnesses claimed that Shiite
militias are responsible for a number of recent crimes including torture,
rape, and summary executions of Sunni Arabs in military operations
against IS.47 In the grim zero-sum mentality of many Iraqi Sunnis, IS
may be the only protection they have from the Shiite militias. Sunni
villagers also fear what they view as an Iranian-backed Iraqi military,
which they see as little better than the hostile militias.

Vulnerabilities

In addition to its strengths, IS has a number of strategic disadvantages. IS personnel are exclusively radical Sunni Muslims, and
the IS leadership seeks the religious and cultural destruction of Shiite
Muslims. IS fighters are known to murder and enslave Shiites simply
for being Shiites.48 Beyond this savagery, IS has also announced plans
to destroy all major Shiite shrines in the territory it captures. The organization has already made good on these threats in Mosul after it seized
control.49 IS leaders have further stated their intentions to destroy the
shrines of Iraqs leading Shiite holy cities of Karbala and Najaf. They
refer to Karbala as the filth-ridden city and Najaf as the city of
polytheism.50 Many Shiites would die to protect these cities, and the
43 Eric Schmitt and Michael R. Gordon, The Iraqi Army was Crumbling Long Before its
Collapse, U.S. Officials Say, New York Times, June 12, 2014, A-1.
44 Ceylan Yeginsu, From Turkey, ISIS Draws a Steady Stream of Recruits, New York Times,
September 16, 2014, A-1.
45 Shane Scott and Ben Hubbard, ISIS Displaying a Deft Command of Varied Media, New
York Times, August 31, 2014, A-1.
46 Unsavoury Allies: The War against Jihadists, Economist, September 6, 2014.
47 Kareem Fahim, Ahmed Azam and Kirk Semple, Sunnis in Iraq often See Their Government
as the Bigger Threat, New York Times, September 11, 2014, A-1.
48 Abigail Hauslohner, With the Rise of Islamic State, Iraq is Splintering along Religious and
Ethnic Lines, Washington Post, September 30, 2014, A-1.
49 Loveday Morris, Razing of Mosuls Shrines Sparks First Signs of Resistance against Islamic
State, Washington Post, July 30, 2014; A-8; Tim Arango Tears and Anger, as Militants Destroy Iraq
Citys Relics, New York Times, July 30, 2014.
50 Thomas Erdbrink, As Sunni Militants Threaten its Allies in Baghdad, Iran Weighs Options,
New York Times, June 13, 2014, A-10.

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Parameters 44(3) Autumn 2014

IS approach of treating them and their religious values with contempt

ensures irreconcilable friction with Shiites, who are the majority of the
Iraqi population. IS barbarity has also made enemies of smaller ethnic
groups and non-Sunni religious sects in Syria and Iraq including Kurds,
Yazidis, Alawites, Christians, and others.51
IS brutality may have been a short-term advantage for the victory in
the north where it terrorized unmotivated government troops who fled
without fighting, but this strategy has long term problems. Shiite Iraqis
and other non-Sunni Arab groups are now more strongly motivated to
fight since IS has proven that there is no place for them or their religion
in any future Iraq under their control. IS brutality, terrifying to undisciplined troops, may be motivation for more professional troops to seek
to destroy them in order to protect their families and communities. The
unfortunate consequence of this situation may be a further hardening
of sectarianism on all sides, making political reconciliation among Iraqs
communities more difficult.
The durability of the IS alliance with other Iraqi Sunni groups,
including former Baathists and some tribal leaders, is also subject to
uncertainty.52 This is an unnatural coalition held together more or less
exclusively by fear and hatred directed at the Baghdad government, Iraqs
Shiite militias, and Iran. The ex-Baathists often belong to the Men
of the Army of the Naqshbandia Order (often known by its Arabic
initials, JRTN) and are the largest group of anti-government insurgents
after IS itself.53 This group has been completely comfortable with secularism in the past and may not be a lasting IS ally. Additionally, tribal
leaders have every reason to be wary of IS, and they are not interested
in ceding authority to this group.54 IS has maintained limited cooperation with some tribes, upheld through intimidation and by providing
them with opportunity to loot property left behind by fleeing Kurds and
Shiites, but strong distrust remains.55 In particular, tribal notables are
concerned IS wishes to assume authority over them, and replace tribal
law with Shariah law. Such an action could nullify traditional tribal
authority.
IS also has a number of tactical and operational shortcomings. As US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin
Dempsey has stated, theyre stretched right nowstretched to control
what theyve gained and stretched across their logistics [and] lines of
communications.56 Additionally, the IS decision to kill the majority
of its prisoners of war, usually after humiliating and perhaps torturing
them, has practical military shortcomings beyond its moral obscenity.57
While these actions have helped to panic and defeat enemies in the
51 Agence France-Presse, Syrian Jihadists Lay Down Rules for Christians, Jordan Times,
February 26, 2014; Plight of Iraqi Minorities Worsens with Forced Conversions and Killings, New
York Times, August 17, 2014, A-14.
52 Douri Surfaces to Liberate Iraq, Arab News (Saudi Arabia), July 14, 2014.
53 Eric Schmitt; Alissa J. Rubin, U.S. and Iraqis Try to Fragment Extremist Group, New York
Times, July 13, 2014, A-1.
54 For an outstanding work on Iraqi tribalism see Norman Cigar, Al-Qaida, the Tribes, and the
Government: Lessons and Prospects for Iraqs Unstable Triangle (Quantico, VA: Marine Corps University
Press, 2011) especially chapter 4.
55 Knights, 5.
56 Schmitt and Rubin, A-1.
57 Associated Press, Islamic State Group Kills Captured Syrian Soldiers, Washington Post,
August 28, 2014, A-1.

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21

past, Iraqi, Syrian, and Kurdish soldiers can only be encouraged to fight
to the death rather than surrender to an enemy that will mistreat, and
ultimately kill them. Moreover, many IS recruits appear to have come
from the lowest rungs of their societies with little education and perhaps
only limited literacy in Arabic.58 Such individuals can show courage in
battle, but it is unclear if they can adapt to rapidly changing battlefield
conditions if their leaders are killed or incapacitated.
IS grandly claims to be a universal movement with Baghdadi, the
leader of all Muslims, but this assertion is hardly credible. While the IS
message has been effective among some discontented Sunnis in Iraq and
Syria, it is unclear if it will have strong resonance in other countries. In
all other Arab states, except Lebanon, Sunni Muslims comprise either
all or most of the political leadership. Even Lebanon is quite different
from Syria and Iraq since it maintains a number of democratic institutions and engages in power sharing among Christians, Shiite Muslims,
Sunni Muslims and other groups. Moreover, many Sunni Arabs are also
angered and offended by IS tactics of beheadings, crucifixion and the
enslavement of women. Correspondingly, IS has created and alarmed
an large number of enemies including the United States, the Sunni-led
Arab states, Europe, al-Qaeda, Iran, and other countries and groups.
While many of these states and organizations will not cooperate with
each other, they will all behave as adversaries of IS.

Undermining Strengths & Exploiting Weaknesses

The United States, Iraq, and their allies seek either to destroy IS or
marginalize the organization so it is no longer a serious threat. They
also hope to eliminate conditions under which IS successor organizations might be reborn from a series of defeats. All of this can only be
done with a comprehensive and evolving understanding of IS strengths
and weakness. At the present time, the most important advantage that
IS maintains is Sunni Arab hostility to the Baghdad government, which
must be significantly diminished in order to undermine the roots of IS
appeal. This will not be an easy problem to overcome, but it is achievable provided that the Iraqi government behaves responsibly and US
military forces in that country are able to help rebuild the Iraqi military
while airstrikes and other actions buy time. US Army, and possibly
Marine Corps, trainers must also plan to continue supporting Kurdish
forces in Iraq and possibly work with Sunni local defense forces assigned
to operate in Sunni areas. US and Iraqi intelligence analysts will have
to carefully consider any information indicating anti-IS activities among
the tribes and evaluate which tribes appear most reliably anti-IS.
Iraqi leadership, not the United States, will be the most important coalition entity in any strategy to undercut IS ability to mobilize
Sunni resentment against the Iraqi government. The ability to do so
is currently the greatest IS strength in Iraq. On the political level, this
situation requires the current and all future Iraqi governments must find
ways to reassure Sunnis they will not be victimized because of their sect
by Shiite officials operating with impunity. Sunni regions must receive
greater autonomy, including local self-defense. There must also be a reasonable level of Sunni representation in national institutions in Baghdad
58 Yeginsu, A-1

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Parameters 44(3) Autumn 2014

with no use of security forces to harass Sunni political leaders. In a clear

sign of progress, Prime Minister al-Abadi is supporting critically important plans to establish Sunni national guard units to provide security in
the north and delegate more authority and funding to provincial governors.59 One hopeful factor is that, at the very minimum, Shiite leaders
now know what can happen when the Sunnis are marginalized, which
may be the best incentive for becoming more inclusive. Nevertheless,
more needs to be done, and many Sunnis remain unconvinced of the
governments lasting good will.
There must also be a strong ongoing US effort to understand IS
military capabilities in order to wage war on it in both Iraq and Syria.
As noted, its most spectacular victory was against a terrorized Iraqi
military that was unwilling to fight, and is therefore an inconclusive
test of its fighting prowess against competent enemies in conventional
battles. Yet, while there is a danger of overestimating IS, there is also a
real danger in underestimating it by dismissing its easy victories against
weak opponents without considering its other military encounters. As
noted earlier, IS has done especially well in fighting serious enemies
in Syria. Establishing an accurate picture of IS military effectiveness
will therefore be a difficult tightrope for US military and intelligence
officials to walk, but it must be done.
In moving forward on this task, military intelligence analysts from
the US Army and other services will need to work closely with national
level intelligence agencies on IS order of battle issues and establishing
the nature of IS communication nodes. Such actions will help to provide
information critical to the tactical successes that are needed to buy time
for Iraqi government reform.
Careful attention must also be given to the military support activities of regional powers that may seek to destroy IS but will also pursue
their own agenda in Iraq and Syria. In this regard, Iran probably has
little or no constructive role to play in rebuilding Iraq, although it is
vehemently opposed to IS. Iran has supported extremely troublesome
Iraqi leaders and also seeks an endgame in Syria which leaves the Assad
regime in power. These are policies that Sunni Arab states will never
accept, and any US cooperation with Iran in Iraq will correspondingly
increase Arab suspicions of Washington. Tehran is a Shiite political and
religious powerhouse that is gravely distrusted by Sunni Arabs throughout the region. It will never be viewed as anything other than a Shiite
ally and advocate by the leadership of Sunni states and Sunni Iraqis.
Finally, there is the question of IS capabilities in Syria. While IS
has a number of exploitable weaknesses in Iraq, Syria presents a more
challenging set of problems. Since the majority of IS forces are in Syria,
the US Administrations decision to lead a coalition of Arab countries
conducting air strikes seems reasonable as a way of diminishing the
organizations overall strength, although the endgame remains difficult
to predict. The Free Syrian Army (FSA) is an uncertain but possibly
very weak reed on which to depend to roll back IS, even with additional
training and support the United States and its allies now plan to provide.

59 Fahim, Azam, and Semple. A-1.

Confronting the Islamic State

Terrill

23

The US Army must nevertheless treat any future training support

role for FSA members as important since a powerful FSA force may
provide moderate Syrians with some bargaining strength for a future
political settlement should one appear possible and acceptable. A near
optimal solution would be for a strong FSA to contribute to an eventual
settlement that excludes the Islamic State and the Nusra Front while
compelling Syrian President Assad and his immediate entourage to leave
the country. Training the FSA also re-assures US Sunni Arab allies
such as Jordan and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries that the
United States is not seeking to wage war on the IS in a way that accepts
the Assad regime as the only alternative to IS extremism. Still, such a
settlement is a very long term possibility. In the medium term, the result
of US policy in Syria will probably look more like containing rather than
defeating IS. Real inclusiveness in Iraq will therefore have to become
a permanent feature of Iraqi politics since IS may be hovering over the
border for some time.