This document summarizes the Commitments of Traders report from June 25, 2010. It finds that week-over-week changes in trader positions were minor. Specifically, the net long US dollar position increased slightly, driven mostly by a shift in the net short euro position. Overall, positions remained net short euros, pounds, and Swiss francs and net long Canadian dollars, Australian dollars, and Mexican pesos.
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ScotiaBank-JUN-25-Weekly FX CFTC Commitments of Traders
This document summarizes the Commitments of Traders report from June 25, 2010. It finds that week-over-week changes in trader positions were minor. Specifically, the net long US dollar position increased slightly, driven mostly by a shift in the net short euro position. Overall, positions remained net short euros, pounds, and Swiss francs and net long Canadian dollars, Australian dollars, and Mexican pesos.
This document summarizes the Commitments of Traders report from June 25, 2010. It finds that week-over-week changes in trader positions were minor. Specifically, the net long US dollar position increased slightly, driven mostly by a shift in the net short euro position. Overall, positions remained net short euros, pounds, and Swiss francs and net long Canadian dollars, Australian dollars, and Mexican pesos.
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ScotiaBank-JUN-25-Weekly FX CFTC Commitments of Traders
This document summarizes the Commitments of Traders report from June 25, 2010. It finds that week-over-week changes in trader positions were minor. Specifically, the net long US dollar position increased slightly, driven mostly by a shift in the net short euro position. Overall, positions remained net short euros, pounds, and Swiss francs and net long Canadian dollars, Australian dollars, and Mexican pesos.
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GLOBAL FX STRATEGY CURRENCY STRATEGISTS
Foreign Exchange Camilla Sutton, CFA, CMT
(416) 866-5470 Sacha Tihanyi (416) 862-3154
CFTC Commitments of Traders Camilla_Sutton@scotiacapital.com Sacha_Tihanyi@scotiacapital.com
Friday, June 25, 2010
Week-Over-Week Changes are Uneventful
- Data in this report is up to Tuesday June 22 and released Friday June 25.
• The week-over-week change to the net long USD position was only +$1bn, driven mostly by a shift in the EUR position. The market is now net short EUR, GBP and CHF; net long CAD, AUD and MXN and essentially flat JPY and NZD. • The net short EUR position increased to 71k contracts or -$10.9bn from 62k contracts or -$9.6bn last week. The change came solely from a closing of the gross long EUR position; and not from the gross short position. This hints that longs are increasingly weary, while shorts continue to expect downside. Accordingly, though the week-over-week change is fairly neutral it does have a slightly bearish leaning. We continue to expect EUR down- side and hold a Q3/10 target of 1.17. • The net long CAD position was essentially unchanged week-over-week and now stands at $2.6bn. There were small additions to both the gross long and short side; but nothing substantial enough to hint at a change in sentiment. We continue to believe that the fundamentals of Canada will support a relatively strong CAD into year-end. • The net short GBP position now stands at $4.3bn, essentially unchanged week-over-week. • Outside of currencies, essentially flat positions include the S&Ps and cop- per; the most notable long holding is gold; and speculators are short natu- ral gas and Treasurys.
Contracts of 100,000 CAD w/w change Date Long Short Net Long Short Net 22-Jun 38,499 12,146 26,353 1,039 2,040 -1,001 15-Jun 37,460 10,106 27,354 685 -4,159 4,844 8-Jun 36,775 14,265 22,510 -487 -843 356 1-Jun 37,262 15,108 22,154 -2,851 -1,133 -1,718
* A trader is classified as “non-commercial” by the Commodity Futures Trading Commis-
sion if the trader is not using futures contracts in a particular currency for hedging purposes (as defined by the Commission). This category of futures trader is generally considered to include individual investors, hedge funds and other large financial institutions engaged in trading the securities for speculative purposes. Global FX Research Friday, June 25, 2010
Contracts of 500,000 MXN w/w change Contracts of 1,000 Barrels w/w change Date Long Short Net Long Short Net Date Long Short Net Long Short Net 22-Jun 40,797 5,158 35,639 7,383 41 7,342 22-Jun 238,384 198,749 39,635 -10,499 -17,204 6,705 15-Jun 33,414 5,117 28,297 9,165 -1,706 10,871 15-Jun 248,883 215,953 32,930 -6,492 -21,965 15,473 8-Jun 24,249 6,823 17,426 -1,893 454 -2,347 8-Jun 255,375 237,918 17,457 -3,780 3,638 -7,418 1-Jun 26,142 6,369 19,773 -8,061 1,023 -9,084 1-Jun 259,155 234,280 24,875 -1,555 14,013 -15,568
3 Global FX Research Friday, June 25, 2010
This report is prepared by The Bank of Nova Scotia (Scotiabank) as a resource for the clients of Scotiabank and Scotia Capital. Opinions, estimates and projections con- tained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which The Bank or its affiliates or any of their employees incur any responsibility. Neither Scotiabank or its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. This report is not, and is not constructed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to in this report. Scotiabank, its affiliates and/or their respective officers, directors or employees may from time to time take positions in the currencies mentioned herein as principal or agent. Directors, officers or employees of Scotiabank and its affiliates may serve as directors of corporations referred to herein. Scotiabank and/or its affiliates may have acted as financial advisor and/or underwriter for certain of the corporations mentioned herein and may have received and may receive remuneration for same. This report may include forward-looking statements about the objectives and strategies of members of the Scotiabank Group. Such forward-looking statements are inherently subject to uncertainties beyond the control of the members of the Scotiabank Group including but not limited to economic and financial conditions globally, regulatory development in Canada and elsewhere, technologi- cal developments and competition. The reader is cautioned that the member's actual performance could differ materially from such forward-looking statements. You should
